Neurocrine Biosciences Q4 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
March 14, 2025

There are 13 speakers on the call.

Operator

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you for standing by. Welcome to Wheaton Precious Metals twenty twenty four Fourth Quarter and Full Year Results Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers' remarks, there will be a question and answer session.

Operator

Thank you. I would like to remind everyone that this conference call is being recorded on Friday, 03/14/2025 at 11:00AM Eastern Time. I will now turn the conference over to Ms. Emma Muray, Vice President of Investor Relations. Thank you.

Operator

Please go ahead.

Speaker 1

Thank you, operator. Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for participating in today's call. I'm joined today by Randy Smallwood, Wheaton Precious Metals' President and Chief Executive Officer Gary Brown, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer Haitham Podollet, Senior Vice President, Corporate Development and Wes Carson, Vice President, Mining Operations. Please note for those not currently on the webcast, a slide presentation accompanying this conference call is available in PDF format on the Presentations page of our website. Some of the commentary in today's call may contain forward looking statements and I would direct everyone to review Slide two of the presentation for more details.

Speaker 1

It should be noted that all figures referred to on today's call are in U. S. Dollars unless otherwise noted. With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Randy Smallwood, our President and Chief Executive Officer.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Emma, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today as we review Wheaton's fourth quarter and full year results for 2024. Driven by our diversified portfolio of high quality and long life assets, I am very pleased to report that Wheaton achieved record revenue, adjusted net earnings and operating cash flows in 2024. We realized annual production of six thirty five gold equivalent ounces exceeding the top end of our production guidance for the year. The strength of our fourth quarter results was underscored by record quarterly production from Salobo, resulting in record overall gold production for the year.

Speaker 2

In 2024, Wheaton remained focused on reinforcing our industry leading growth profile by acquiring four new investments. Haitham will provide further details on these recent acquisitions, which include a gold stream on Montage Gold's KONE project, the largest streaming transaction completed by a single streamer in the past decade. Each of these investments further enhances and diversifies our portfolio by expanding our geographic presence and strengthening our strategic partnerships. And we are excited to welcome our new mining partners and we look forward to supporting them in advancing these projects. Wheaton's estimated growth profile is unmatched in our sector.

Speaker 2

This impressive growth is readily apparent in our five year production forecast, where we estimate annual production increasing by 40% to 870,000 gold equivalent ounces by 2029. Along with organic growth from our existing operations, we expect to see inaugural production from nine different assets in the next five years, all of which have received their key permits and are either nearing or already well into construction. In 2025 alone, several development projects are currently expected to begin production, including Artemis Gold's Blackwater project, which has already made its first gold pour in late January, B2Gold's Goose project in Nunavut, Waterton's Mineral Park project in Arizona and Ivanhoe's Platte Reef project in South Africa. To further demonstrate our confidence in Wheaton's growth profile, we are pleased to announce a 6.5% increase to our quarterly dividend or are proud that Wheaton's payout ratio continues to be a leader in the precious metals sector. We are also proud to be one of only two resource focused companies to be recognized by Corporate Knights as one of the twenty twenty five Global 100 most sustainable corporations and to be the only streaming company upgraded to AAA ESG rating by MSCI.

Speaker 2

These accolades reflect our commitment to support responsible operations across all areas of our business and underscore the quality of the mining partners that we collaborate with. I would also like to mention that last week we announced the winner of our inaugural Future of Mining Challenge. Wheaton, with the assistance of Foresight, launched this challenge in September of twenty twenty four to support the mining industry's important goal of delivering essential commodities and materials in a more efficient, sustainable manner. The 2025 winner is Rethink Milling, whose innovative grinding technology demonstrates immense potential to significantly lower energy consumption, leading to reduced emissions and operating costs and ultimately improve operational efficiencies. Stay tuned for our twenty twenty six Future of Mining Challenge.

Speaker 2

And with that, I will now hand the call over to Wes Carson, our Vice President of Operations, who will provide a more in-depth look at our operating results. Wes? Thanks. Thanks,

Speaker 3

Randy. Good morning. Overall production in the fourth quarter came in higher than expected, driven by strong out performances at Salobo, Constancia and Penasquito, further highlighting the strength of these significant assets in our diversified high quality portfolio. In the fourth quarter of twenty twenty four, Salobo produced 84,000 ounces of attributable gold representing record quarterly production, an increase of approximately 17% relative to the fourth quarter of twenty twenty three, driven by higher throughput as the ramp up of the Salobo III expansion continued as well as higher gold grades and recoveries. On 01/28/2025, Vale announced the completion of the Salobo III ramp up and continuing improvements in performance at both Salobo I and II.

Speaker 3

On 03/04/2025 Vale informed Wheaton that it achieved a sustained throughput capacity of over 35,000,000 tonnes per annum over a ninety day period, indicating the completion of the second phase of the Slobo 3 expansion project. Following a review of the final completion test, Wheaton anticipates advancing the remaining $144,000,000 of the expansion payment. In the fourth quarter of twenty twenty four, Constancia produced 970,000 ounces of attributable silver and 18,200 ounces of attributable gold, an increase of approximately 16% for silver production and a decrease of approximately 18% for gold production relative to the fourth quarter of twenty twenty three. The increase in silver production, which represents a quarterly record was primarily due to higher grades. The reduced gold production was the result of lower gold grades as more material was mined from the Constancia Pit and reclaimed from stockpile compared with the previous year.

Speaker 3

The decrease in gold grade was partially offset by higher throughput. Hudbay announced that gold production in 2025 is expected to be lower than 2024 levels due to additional high grade gold benches in Paphacancha, which were mined ahead of schedule in late twenty twenty four instead of 2025 as originally planned. The Pampacancha deposit containing relatively higher gold grades is expected to be depleted in early December twenty twenty five. In the fourth quarter of twenty twenty four, Penasquito produced over 2,400,000 ounces of attributable silver, an increase of approximately 138% relative to the fourth quarter of twenty twenty three as prior year operations were impacted by a four month long labor strike. Newmont has indicated that in 2025, co product production is expected to decline as mining transitions from the Chile, Colorado pit back to the Penasco pit, which contains relatively lower silver grades.

Speaker 3

On 01/22/2025, Artemis announced the commissioning of the grinding circuit that the Blackwater project had advanced and milling of first ore commenced with the first pour of gold and silver being announced on 01/29/2025. Commercial production remains targeted for Q2 of twenty twenty five. Also during the quarter, Waterton's Origin Mining continued to advance their Mineral Park project with the installation of new crushing and milling circuits nearing completion. Project construction continues to progress on track with first ore to the mill expected in Q2 of twenty twenty five, followed by the anticipated ramp up to commercial production during the second half of the year. Due to strong outperformance in the fourth quarter, Wheaton exceeded the upper limit of its annual production guidance in 2024, surpassing the midpoint of the guidance range by approximately 9%.

Speaker 3

The company anticipates that 2025 GEO production will continue to grow from levels achieved in the previous year. This forecast growth is driven by expected stronger attributable production from Antamina, the anticipated startup of several development projects including Blackwater, Goose, Mineral Park and Flat Reifs and a stable forecast for a slow boat production. Attributable production is projected to increase to Antamina in 2025 due to expected higher silver grades caused by higher ratio of copper zinc ore versus copper only ore mined in 2025. Attributor production is forecast to be consistent at Slobo in 2025 with slightly lower grades as per the mine plan offset by increasing throughput at Slovo 12 And 3 continue to as we continue to see an improvement in plant availability and overall utilization, complemented by a best in class preventative maintenance culture that has been implemented consistently across the entire site. Increased production from the aforementioned assets is anticipated to be partially offset by lower production from Penasquito and Constancia.

Speaker 3

Wheaton's attributable production in 2025 is forecast to be 350,000 to 309,000 ounces of gold, 20,500,000 to 22,500,000 ounces of silver, 12,500 to 13,500 ounce the GEOs of other metals, resulting in total production of approximately 600,000 to 670,000 GEOs. Production is forecast to increase at an industry leading rate of approximately 40% over the next five years to 870,000 GEOs by 2029, primarily due to expected growth from operating assets including Antonina and Maramato and development assets including Blackwater, Platte Reef and the Kone project. From 02/1930 to 02/1934, attributable production is forecast at an average of over 950,000 GEOs in the five year period and incorporates expected additional incremental production from pre development assets including Santo Domingo and Cangrejos. That concludes the operations review. And with that, I will turn the call over one last time to Gary.

Speaker 3

Thanks, Wes.

Speaker 4

As described by Wes, production in the fourth quarter amounted to 187,000 GEOs, a 14% increase relative to the fourth quarter of twenty twenty three, primarily the result of higher production from Salobo and Penasquito with Salobo achieving record quarterly production. Sales volumes amounted to 143,000 GEOs, a decrease of 8% relative to the fourth quarter of twenty twenty three with the higher production being offset by a 40% increase to the number of GEOs produced but not yet delivered or PBND. Strong commodity prices coupled with our solid production base resulted in record quarterly revenue of $381,000,000 and gross margin of two forty seven million dollars an increase over the comparable period of the prior year of 2140% respectively. Of this revenue, 62% was attributable to gold, 35% to silver, 1% to palladium and 2% to cobalt. As at 12/31/2024, approximately 164,000 GEOs were in PDND, representing approximately two point nine months of payable production, an increase from the preceding quarter and at the upper end of our expected range of two to three months.

Speaker 4

This was due to a significant increase in quarter over quarter production driven by increased production by Penasquito coupled with record quarterly production at Salobo with this incremental production expected to be delivered in the first quarter of twenty twenty five. G and A expenses amounted to $10,500,000 for the fourth quarter of twenty twenty four and total G and A for the year amounted to $40,700,000 being at the lower end of the original forecasted range. For 2025, the company expects that G and A expenses will amount to $50,000,000 to $55,000,000 with the increase largely resulting from costs associated with the inaugural Future of Mining Challenge coupled with the expiring ATM program. In the fourth quarter, we recognized an impairment charge of $109,000,000 relative to the Boise Bay PMPA due to the sustained decline in market cobalt prices. As reflecting the impairment charge, net earnings amounted to $88,000,000 with a $35,000,000 global minimum tax expense being reflected in the quarter.

Speaker 4

Adjusted net earnings amounted to $199,000,000 representing a quarterly record for the company with the $34,000,000 increase from the prior year due primarily to the higher gross margin. Adjusted earnings per share amounted to $0.44 per share, an increase of 21% over the comparable period of the prior year. Revenue for 2024 increased 26% to approximately $1,300,000,000 representing a record for the company with the increase being primarily due to a 20% increase in realized commodity prices coupled with the 5% increase in sales volumes. Of this revenue, 99% was derived from precious metals with 62% attributable to gold, 36% to silver, 1% to palladium and 1% to cobalt. Gross margin for 2024 increased by $229,000,000 to $8.00 $3,000,000 After negating the items that are non recurring in nature, including the effect of the $109,000,000 impairment charge on the Boise Bay cobalt stream, adjusted net earnings increased by 20% to an annual record of $640,000,000 Despite the persistent inflationary environment, Wheaton continued to deliver robust cash operating margins in the fourth quarter resulting in record quarterly cash flow from operations of $319,000,000 an increase of over 30% relative to the fourth quarter of twenty twenty three and paid a dividend of $0.155 per share an increase of over three percent relative to the prior year.

Speaker 4

During the quarter, Wheaton made total upfront cash payments of approximately $115,000,000 relative to mineral stream interest, including $44,000,000 relative to Kermook, forty million dollars relative to Marmato, twenty five million dollars relative to Mineral Park and $6,000,000 relative to Cangrejos. Offsetting these outflows with a temporary repayment of the upfront cash payment of $13,000,000 relative to El Domo. This repayment which will be re advanced in the future was made by Silvercorp in order to stop the accrual of delay ounces owed to Wheaton. In addition, the company made dividend payments totaling $70,000,000 Overall net cash inflows amounted to $124,000,000 in the fourth quarter resulting in cash and cash equivalents at December 31 of $818,000,000 This cash balance combined with the fully undrawn $2,000,000,000 revolving credit facility and the strength of our forecasted operating cash flows positions the company exceptionally well to satisfy its funding commitments and provides us with financial flexibility to acquire additional accretive mineral stream interests. Given the strength of Wheaton's balance sheet and forecasted cash flows, the company has elected to not renew its at the market equity program under which no shares have been issued.

Speaker 4

As mentioned by Randy, the Board has declared a dividend of $0.165 per share, a 6.5% increase from the dividend of the prior quarter, payable to shareholders of record on 04/01/2025. After declaring record levels of dividends in 2024, the company has now returned over $2,300,000,000 in dividends to investors since inception, which notably represents over 60% of the amount of equity ever raised by the company. That concludes the financial summary. And with that, I will turn the call over to Haitham.

Speaker 5

Thank you, Gary. Following the record number of deals that we announced in 2023, the corporate development team saw yet another busy year in 2024, committing $910,000,000 on four precious metals transactions, resulting in the addition of multiple top tier assets, further adding to our already impressive development project pipeline. I presented the deals of our stream of Montage Gold relative to the Kone project on our last quarterly call, the largest streaming transaction by a single streamer in nearly a decade. Since then, Montage has announced that construction had commenced and that significant progress is being made to rapidly advance and de risk the project, which remains on track to meet the expected first gold pour in mid-twenty twenty seven. Once fully ramped up, KONE is forecast to become our second largest gold producing asset for its first five years of production and third largest producing asset overall.

Speaker 5

Additionally, in December, we announced the transaction with Allied Gold Corporation in respect to the Kermuk Gold Project located in Ethiopia. Kermuk is a fully permitted, high quality development project that we believe offers significant exploration potential. Kermuk is set to be the first commercial gold mine in Ethiopia and is supported by a team who has a proven operating track record. Attributable gold production is forecast to average over 16,000 ounces of gold per year for the first ten years of production and Wheaton anticipates receiving ounces in the second half of twenty twenty six. Only a few weeks ago, Allied announced a strategic partnership with UAE based Ambrosia Investment Holding to crystallize value on a portion of its Satiola mine in addition to participation in a private placement, which when combined generated proceeds of over $500,000,000 Allied has indicated that these proceeds will be used in part for the further development of Kermuk providing crucial financing and further derisking the project.

Speaker 5

We are excited to partner with the Allied team who has a strong operational background and look forward to supporting them along Kermuk's path to production. Lastly, subsequent to the quarter, we announced an amendment to the Blackwater Pressure Smells Purchase Agreement, whereby the amount of payable silver received by Wheaton will now be determined based on a fixed ratio of silver to gold ounces rather than fixed recoveries. This amendment presents a win win solution for both Wheaton and our partner accelerating the receipt of payable ounces to Wheaton, while the additional $30,000,000 payment is expected to fully fund Artemis as they enter the final stages of ramping up to commercial production, which is anticipated for the second quarter of twenty twenty five. With that, I will hand the call back over to Randy.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Haitham. And thank you, Gary, for the integral role that you have played in the last seventeen years. Many of you already know that Gary will be stepping down as the CFO at the end of this month. Gary's legacy will be marked by a strong financial foundation, a culture of excellence and a focus on sustainable growth. I am immensely grateful for his contribution and I think I speak for the entire Wheaton team and stakeholders in wishing him all the best in this next chapter of his life.

Speaker 2

Thank you. In summary, 2024 was a very strong year for Wheaton distinguished by several key highlights. With production of 635,000 gold equivalent ounces, we exceeded our annual guidance generating record cash flows of over $1,000,000,000 and distributing record dividends of over $280,000,000 Our pipeline of development projects was further derisked by construction advancements and the receipt of various key permits by our partners, further strengthening our impressive organic growth profile of over 40% in the next five years. We continued to grow our asset base with the addition of four new acquisitions this year, adding further diversification by commodity, operator, region and development stage. Our balance sheet remains one of the strongest in the industry, providing ample capacity to continue adding accretive high quality streams into our portfolio.

Speaker 2

We declared a record level of dividends in 2024 and after raising our 2025 annual dividend, we'll continue to provide one of the highest dividend payout ratios in the sector. And lastly, we continue to demonstrate leadership in sustainability with sector leading ESG ratings and external recognition. So with that, I would like to open up the call for questions. Operator?

Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin the question and answer session.

Speaker 6

Thank you.

Operator

And your first question comes from the line of Lawson Winder from Bank of America Securities. Please go ahead.

Speaker 5

Yes. Thank you very much, operator.

Speaker 7

And hello, Randy and team. Congratulations on a fantastic 2024. And then also Gary to you, congratulations on a fantastic career at Wheaton and all the best going forward. Guys, first of all, I wanted to start off on the dividend. I think the market's been pretty impressed with the increase that you guys have demonstrated with the announcement last night.

Speaker 7

But I mean the payout based on your operating free cash flow in 2024 is a little bit lower than the sort of 20% to 30% range that you talked about in the past. Is there a thought to maybe push that a little bit higher going forward?

Speaker 2

Lawson, it's Randy. Thanks for calling in. I mean, it really comes down to the opportunity set that we see in front of us, right? We want to maintain a healthy balance sheet to take advantage of what we see is still a relatively strong opportunity set in front of us. And so I wouldn't call I mean, I think it really comes down to how strong that balance sheet is and how much we've got in terms of commitments coming down the pipe and finding that right balance.

Speaker 2

And so if you see us with an even stronger cash balance and factoring in, of course, commitments that we have, we do have quite a bit of construction going on over the next while. So we'll be co funding with the operators to get these assets up and running. It really comes down to just making sure that we have that capacity to take advantage of the opportunities, but at the same time knowing that we want to do want to keep committing to that progressive dividend. And so I think moving it up at the rate that we did this year allows us to do that. We have some commitments coming up this year.

Speaker 2

I know Hathum's got a long list of opportunities out there in terms of helping fund projects coming in and adding to our growth profile even more. And so it's really coming down to that balance. And I would say that the best way to sort of estimate that is look at how much cash we have on hand during third or fourth quarter and that's going to be a real good indicator of what we're going to do the following year. And at this time, we felt we had that extra capacity this year.

Speaker 7

Okay. Yes, that's really helpful context. And just thinking about that capital deployment, in the pipeline and we often talk about the size of deal and the type of deal, but I mean if you just look at the total deal, like could you see the possibility of deploying the same amount of capital in 2025 as 2024? Yes, so thinking about that way. And then thinking about that in terms of the contractual obligations, you guys have disclosed about $882,000,000 of contractual obligations.

Speaker 7

Does that to what extent does that influence how much you feel you could deploy in 2025?

Speaker 5

Sure. Maybe I'll take that question Lawson. Good morning. Just with regards to how much we could potentially deploy in 2025, let me just go back and give you a little bit of history over the last, I'd say, ten plus years on average, we've deployed over $800,000,000 a year. And that's not that's on accretive high quality transactions.

Speaker 5

We continue to see in our current profile opportunities that range anywhere from $100,000,000 or up to as much as $400,000,000 There is the odd one that is somewhere between $500,000,000 and $1,000,000,000 So we do see an opportunity to continue to deploy a lot of capital. That being said, we're only going to do it in a very accretive manner and very, I would say, manner similar to what we've actually done in the past. We're not trying to do every deal. We're trying to do the best deals and we're trying to do it with the best price.

Speaker 2

Lawson, I would add, currently what we're seeing is a lot of investment in the gold space. Clearly having gold breakthrough $3,000 earlier today, it's a very strong gold market and we're seeing a lot of investments in that. So most of the transactions we're looking at right now is gold streams on gold assets. The copper market will wake up sometime. There's just when you start looking at long term demand and what we've typically seen is that copper is it's a much more capital intensive space and there's a much higher need for copper.

Speaker 2

So in the gold space, we tend to see $300,000,000 5 hundred million dollars maybe $700,000,000 deals as we've shown. But boy, when you start getting into the copper space, that's when you start seeing the $1,000,000,000 plus. And so, we have to make sure that we're prepared for that when that copper market does, when we start seeing some reinvestment into the copper space.

Speaker 7

Okay. That's helpful. And then just maybe just a bit of a modeling detail question on the total contractual obligations for 2025. How much of that $882,000,000 do you expect to deploy in this quarter? And what are the kind of the moving parts driving that?

Speaker 2

Well, this quarter is just about done. So in terms of the first quarter itself, I mean, clearly Salobo Vale has been successful in terms of satisfied in the second phase. So that that payment will be made shortly. I'm not sure the actual day whether it falls into this quarter or not, but we're going through the process of getting that done. They've definitely satisfied that.

Speaker 2

So that's going to be the first one. We've got active construction on all the other projects and stuff. I don't know if we've got a quarterly breakdown, but yes, I'd have to say it's I mean, I would say it's pretty evenly spread over the entire year. And so if you're looking at that, it's probably couple of hundred million maybe a little bit more heavily weighted to the front end to put that $144,000,000 payment towards Vale.

Speaker 4

I mean the big one is going to be KONE, which I think is going to be more back end weighted. But at the end of the day with 144 going out over the next thirty days, as Randy said, it's probably going to be pretty stratified across the four quarters.

Speaker 7

Fantastic. Again, great quarter guys. Thanks for taking the questions.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Lawson.

Operator

Thank you. And your next question comes from the line of Tanya Jakusconek from Scotiabank. Please go ahead.

Speaker 6

Great. Good morning. Andrea. Thank you very much for taking the questions. And Gary, good luck on your next adventure.

Speaker 4

Thanks, Sonia.

Speaker 6

Just wanted to turn back to some modeling questions, if I could. Thank you for the color on the outflows of the commitments. Maybe just as I think about the year and assuming obviously commodity plant which they don't, but you do your production based on that pricing anyways. I know that we have the new mines contributing about that 20,000 to 25,000 GEOs towards the latter part of the year. How should we think about the first half or the second half?

Speaker 6

Is it 47%, forty eight %, like how should I

Speaker 2

I would think it's about 45%, fifty five %, forty five % in the front half, 55% in the back half. Again, mine startup is challenging in terms of picking production levels and how fast you can ramp up. You kind of test the system and if it works, you test it a little bit more. And if it works, you test a little bit more or you have to step back a bit, right? So it's always a tricky process and so it's always tough to sort of pick off that.

Speaker 2

So I would definitely say we will definitely see a bias towards the latter half of the year in terms of production, but I would characterize it about 45% upfront and 55% in the second half.

Speaker 6

And besides new coming in, Randy, what other operation within your

Speaker 3

portfolio has a seasonality to it that I should

Speaker 6

be aware of or any downtime?

Speaker 8

Operation side.

Speaker 3

Sure. I'd say the main one Tanya is Salobo. And Salobo does have a rainy season generally in the first quarter. So we do see slightly lower production from Salobo. And then that ramps up through the year.

Speaker 3

That being said, over the last couple of years, they've done quite well. They installed a new pumping system in the bottom of the pit a couple of years ago. And that really has mitigated a lot of the challenge that they had previously around that rainy season. Most of our other operations are not really seasonally effective though. Salobo would be the largest single one for sure.

Speaker 6

Okay. And then Wes, do have any grade differential in the first or second half or any maintenance downtime for the second half?

Speaker 3

Nothing out of the ordinary. It's pretty standard across the year and everything. We don't have the major in the last couple of years, we've had some fluctuations on, say, Constancia with Papa Concha coming in and out. That's reasonably flat across the year. And really Penasquita will be the same there in Penasquita for most of the year.

Speaker 3

So no significant changes kind of over the year. It really is those operations coming on in the latter part of the year that makes a difference.

Speaker 6

Okay. That's very helpful. And I guess I should ask the DD and A, but is that a hopeful ask?

Speaker 2

Sorry, your line is kind of can you just repeat that question?

Speaker 6

Sorry. I was hoping to get an idea for your depreciation or is that a hopeful ask for guidance for now?

Speaker 4

Depletion, we forecast mine by mine. I think I wouldn't expect it to deviate significantly from what Q4's depletion was, but we're forecasting roughly $300,000,000 in depletion over the year.

Speaker 6

Okay. That's very helpful. Thank you. And then I just wanted to turn if I could to just the deal space and thank you for sharing us on the deal side and the opportunities that you're seeing on the gold space. And I think, Randy, you mentioned a lot of them is in helping finance development stage projects.

Speaker 6

I just wanted to clarify if that's what I heard, number one. And number two, that's what it is. Okay, perfect. Number two, I do understand there are some royalties for sale as well and some in sort of bigger size. Wondered if that was something you will also looking at separate from the streams?

Speaker 5

We look at everything Tanya, definitely. I mean, we have to understand what's going on out there and we weigh every opportunity against the other opportunities we have in the pipeline.

Speaker 2

So our preference is streams Tanya, but we feel that they're a much more much stronger business model than the royalties. But existing royalties that are auctioned off, we'll always have a look at and try and get a sense. Sometimes we scratch our head at the values being paid for these royalties, but especially on different projects and such. But we'll look at them and see if there's a space for them in our portfolio. All in all, it's still about trying to find good quality precious metals production for our shareholders.

Speaker 5

And I'll just add to a comment Randy made earlier. For the last little while, a lot of the opportunities given the strong commodity price in precious metals that is have resulted in Wheaton looking at streams on these high margin precious metals assets. We are starting to see some polymetallic assets with a good byproduct, fresh metals byproduct that are coming our way. So we're probably fifty-fifty split on those going forward.

Speaker 6

Okay, that's helpful. Thank you. And then how do you think of the opportunities from a geographical standpoint? I only say that because a couple of your last ones were based in Africa. And I'm just thinking of how do you see your exposure?

Speaker 6

Do you feel that that's enough Africa or are you back to North And South America? Just wondering geography wise.

Speaker 5

So I can tell you this. I can tell you when we the last few transactions that we did, yes, you're right, there was a couple of two or three that were in Africa. It wasn't because we had a focus on Africa. It was because that is where the highest quality opportunities lay at that given point in time. I'm looking at my list of opportunities for the next, let's say, twelve months.

Speaker 5

And it is there are none in Africa at this point. So we are looking globally, but I think generally speaking, we've exhausted probably some of the highest quality assets in Africa from a stream perspective and looking elsewhere at this point. Yes.

Speaker 2

It's not so much the continent itself, Tanya. It's a country by country basis. I mean, some of the most stable jurisdictions in the world are in Africa in terms of longevity and security around mining. And so it's something that you have to really assess that. And I would add that the one other aspect that we really focus on isn't so much even country risk, it's community risk.

Speaker 2

We put a lot of effort in terms of trying to understand what that risk is. And so we've been I mean, yes, you're correct. Most some of our recent transactions obviously in Africa and it looks like a new area for us. Haitham and I and the rest of the team have been looking in Africa for many years now. I would almost suggest that perhaps some of our peers are have learned some lessons and are factoring in a bit more political risk in their own valuations and now it's a more competitive market.

Speaker 2

We always have factored in political risk as part of our evaluation process. And so I do think that that might be a bit of a reflection as it might not be so much a change in our approach, but a change in some of our peers' approach from a political risk perspective. And I think that has opened up some opportunities for us.

Speaker 6

And I appreciate that. It was just looking at it from a portfolio basis overall. And so, Haitham, I think you said most of what you're looking is outside of Africa. Is it safe to assume most of it is North South America?

Speaker 5

Yes, safe to assume that.

Speaker 6

Okay. Thank you so much for taking my questions. Really appreciate it. And again, Gary, good luck on the

Operator

And your next question comes from the line of Brian McHargue from Raymond James. Please go ahead.

Speaker 9

Good morning and thank you for taking my question. And again best wishes Gary on your next chapter My question is maybe philosophical, but I'm interested, we've had a couple of amendments to some of the PPMAs over the last six months, both Phoenix and Blackwater, which is I guess as I look at them effectively, you're putting in more capital, but you're getting more ounces upfront into a pretty good precious metal market. But I'm curious whether the genesis of the transactions is more as a company's developed these projects, they need more capital. So you put it in and get a return or is it more that you both see a pretty good precious metal market and there's an opportunity for both of you to improve the projects upfront for what you really thought they were to begin with and therefore get a better return for both of you or maybe those are just one offs. And I guess if it's the situation where you can advance projects by putting more capital in to benefit both of you.

Speaker 9

Is that something I should think about you could be doing on some of your other PPMAs and it's an additional avenue of growth going forward? Thanks.

Speaker 5

Yes. I mean, over the last, I would say, two to four years, we've become incredibly creative on how we structure our transactions. And obviously, given the lack of equity markets, the expensive debt that's out there, we've actually been looking for ways to continue to expand on our high quality streams, Brian. That is something we'll continue to do. And yes, there are some, I would say, methodologies that we've incorporated that not only give us additional exposure to a stream, but give us additional protections on the streams ensuring that we continue to get the streams in the manner that we've actually valued them.

Speaker 5

So we've by doing a lot of these revisions that we've done over the last couple of years, we have protected ourselves and ensured that we have a solid profile continuing on regardless of whether there's delays by our partners or not. Randy, is there anything you want to add to that?

Speaker 2

I think you captured it well. Sorry, can I just follow-up?

Speaker 9

So I thought that was a great point you made, Haitham. But in all of this, I can assume the security of the additional stuff is as good as the original or better. Is that a fair assumption from your perspective?

Speaker 5

Absolutely. And I would say given what we've seen in the industry, not within Wheaton, but elsewhere, that is even more important than ever.

Speaker 9

Great. Thanks very much for the color on that. That's very helpful.

Speaker 4

My pleasure, Brent.

Operator

Thank you. And your next question comes from the line of Daniel Major from UBS. Please go ahead.

Speaker 8

Hi. Can you hear me okay?

Speaker 5

You bet, Ken.

Speaker 8

Great. Thanks. Yes, a few questions. The first one, thinking about the structure of the Montage transaction, it's quite front loaded in terms of share of offtake from the asset. Is this something an evolution of the type of deal you're looking for going forward, kind of more front loaded type repayment schedule or is this just specific to the transaction?

Speaker 2

Yes. Daniel, this was a unique opportunity to supply the bulk of the financing to get this project built. One of the other major equity investors in Montage, Zogen, also stepped in and supplied a bit of capital. But we supplied by far the bulk of the capital towards this. And so what this has allowed Montage to do is move this project forward without any project debt, so to speak.

Speaker 2

I mean, there's a couple of small cost overrun facilities that are both being supplied by Zogen and Wheaton, but that's only in the event of. And so to be able to move this project forward based fully on stream funding is a unique aspect. We haven't seen a lot of that in the industry. And I think it's really an indication of some of the opportunities that we see out there to continue to grow our own business, but also being a supportive partner. The flexibility of a stream relative to bank debt is very attractive.

Speaker 2

And so you're right, when you look at this one, it's very front end loaded starting off at just around 20% of the gold production, but dropping down long term to a number closer to 5% of the gold production. And that is very similar from Montage's perspective. It looks like project debt. It's got a it's lumpy at the front end while the project gets up and running. And then it gets paid off in those early years and then they have a bit of a residual tail around the stream that carries on.

Speaker 2

So we think it's a great unique approach. We've definitely had some interest from other companies looking at this because the appeal of this versus dealing with project debt is and the flexibility, the inherent flexibility that comes with it, just so much more attractive. And so, I don't know, Haizan, do you have anything to add to that?

Speaker 5

No, I think that was a great synopsis there. I would say in any project, obviously, a company as they're building a mine, they want to get their payback as fast as possible. And as you can see from the way we structured it, we are also getting payback during that same upfront end. And so that we going into a high quality asset that can give us that payback quickly, that's always positive. And I would also say this positions us well from a security ranking perspective.

Speaker 5

So everything we've done with that specific asset has been to protect us and to provide as much capital back as possible. So we're very excited about that opportunity.

Speaker 8

Okay. Thanks. And maybe just following that. I mean, when you look at the risk profile against the valuations, you feel like this is an approach of being a much larger proportion of the funding is a higher risk from your side?

Speaker 5

It absolutely is higher risk. But that being said, I would also say that it's that's where the opportunity lies. We've got the capital to do it and we're getting much higher returns to reflect that higher risk as well. So definitely from a risk return perspective, it makes sense. And Gary, would you want to add something to that?

Speaker 4

Yes. You have to remember that like we're pretty much the only creditor at the table with this type of structure. So that gives us control. If a downside kind of scenario manifests, it gives us a lot more control of how we navigate that process. And we are a very patient capital provider.

Speaker 4

So we're going to be aligned with our partner to get them through that situation and get the operation up and running again. Whereas debt providers may not have that same intent. So we actually think that it's in some ways it's less risky.

Speaker 8

Okay. Thank you. Then the next question again on the to follow-up on the question the answer you gave around the list of opportunities going forward and then not being in Africa. First Quantum has spoke about potential stream financing in Zambia. Should I take that comment as you're not in that process?

Speaker 5

I would say that process hasn't officially started yet. I think they've been talking about it for a while and there's obviously interest to look at all high quality assets on our part.

Speaker 8

Okay. Thanks. And one more if I could, just on the profile through the year, you mentioned about produced but not delivered volumes being high and then principally unwinding in the first quarter. Can you give us any guide on that? Should we just assume they normalize in Q1 or is it going to be over the first half or any sense there?

Speaker 4

I would think that it's going to come back down to kind of the midpoint of our two to three month estimate in Q1 and then kind of hover there for the rest of the year. But we can never predict that with pinpoint accuracy.

Speaker 8

Got it. So 20,000 ounce, 25,000 ounce delta on the quarter is a reasonable assumption?

Speaker 3

Yes.

Speaker 8

Okay. Super. Thank you very much.

Operator

Thank you. And your next question comes from the line of Philan Dalby from Berenberg. Please go ahead.

Speaker 10

Hi. Good morning, Randy and team. Thanks a lot for the call. Yeah, just one question really for me is around Salobo, obviously phenomenal quarter there, really demonstrating what's achievable from that asset. But given, yes, it's still firmly cornerstone asset for Wheaton, but there's been sort of a bit of uncertainty around the sort of longer term production profile there.

Speaker 10

Obviously, you've probably last release of technical report in 2022. We've seen a few adjustments since in terms of throughput and grade expectations. So really my question is, could you possibly map out what your sort of internal expectations are for the production profile at Salobo out to say 02/1930 and then sort of a general long term view there? That would be very helpful. Thank you.

Speaker 3

Yes. Thanks for the question, William. I mean, really the way we're seeing it with Salobo is fairly static. Over the next while we do see grades starting to trend down a little bit. But same as most open pits as you go through different phases when you get to the lower part of a phase the grades go up and then really they go back down as you get up to the upper part.

Speaker 3

So it's fairly static as you go across. I think one of the exciting things though is if you look at some of the announcements that value based metals has had over the past while, there is significant potential for further expansion at Salobo. And I think we will see a lot of that. I mean and many of the announcements on additional capital being put into the Carriage House region and that Salobo will see benefits of that going forward. So for right now, we've modeled it as reasonably flat, but I think you could potentially see some upside as those capital investments come in.

Speaker 10

Okay. Thanks, Wes. So, yes, I mean, you did about two seventy five ounces in 2024. So if I'm reading you correctly there, you sort of think fairly static around that level, say, to sort of '27, '20 '20 '8 before maybe starting coming up a bit?

Speaker 3

Yes. Yes. That's reasonable.

Speaker 10

Okay. Fair. And then, yes, sorry, just following up on the conversation around expansion and obviously the talk of central fourth line there. Do you continue to have those conversations? Has there been any sort of progress there in the last sort of six months that you can talk to?

Speaker 3

It's still in steady phase with Vale. I would say, I mean, we continue to be engaged on with them. That's really our most significant partner on all those discussions. But as they go through those studies, we'll continue to have those discussions with them.

Speaker 1

The other thing, Will, that's notable is they've been talking about it more and more publicly. This whole idea of Salobo three point five and adding another 6,000,000 tonnes per annum capacity is something they're referencing often. But like Wes said, in the study phase, it is not in our profile at all. So that would all be upside

Speaker 10

to us. Okay, understood. Thanks very much, Emma. Thanks Wes and the team and yes, all the best to Gary for your next chapter. Thanks a lot.

Speaker 4

Thanks, William.

Operator

Thank you. And your next question comes from the line of Larry Liu from JBC. Please go ahead.

Speaker 11

Hi, Randy, Heath and Wes and congrats on a successful career Gary. I would like to circle back to talk a little bit about transactions. So Wheaton has a really strong focus in gold streaming transactions in the past. As you know, silver is also a precious metal and silver is definitely in Wheaton's DNA. So I guess long story short, with gold already reaching all time highs, should we expect Wheaton start taking advantage and be more active in the silver space?

Speaker 5

Thanks for the question, Larry. I would love to find opportunities where we could add additional silver. Unfortunately, silver comes as a byproduct typically of polymetallic assets. So it's although the focus is precious metals, I wish we could say that we'd be we have a way of actually diving more into silver into high quality assets. I can tell you that when we look at these things, we look and transact in the current environment.

Speaker 5

It does not necessarily mean just because commodity prices have risen that we're paying spot prices on our precious metal streams whether it be gold or silver. So we will always transact such that we're getting a solid return in the context of the environment that we're in.

Speaker 11

Absolutely. That's fair. Thanks, Nathan. Next question kind of focuses a little bit on the Blackwater, the recent amendment to the stream agreement. I'm just wondering how much of the expansion for Blackwater's been factored into a long term guidance now that the silver streaming is based on the throughput?

Speaker 5

Well, the reason we've done that whole transaction is to simplify the overall process. And at the same time, it accelerates the production of silver that we get in our portfolio. So you get a lot more silver upfront, you get a lot more capital upfront in a strong commodity price environment. But if you look at where we're actually headed with that asset, we're pretty optimistic that they're going to outperform what they're originally saying as well. So I'll leave it at that.

Speaker 5

Wes, do you want to add?

Speaker 3

Yes. Maybe just add that they are obviously continuing to look at the expansions there and what that looks like. I mean they're looking to move into those reasonably quickly. I think I mean it's and I think overall what we've got modeled in our long term is the same thing that you would have seen publicly right now. But there is discussion on hoping to move those things forward sooner rather than later.

Speaker 3

It's definitely to the benefit of that asset to get those expansions in sooner.

Speaker 11

Perfect. Sounds good. Thanks so much, Haven and Wes. I have just one last question and focusing on the Boise Bay impairment that was mentioned in the press release. So I'm just wondering how much of the impairment was a result of the weakening cobalt price versus a change in your production estimates or a change in discount rate that's being applied to the valuation process?

Speaker 4

It's virtually all cobalt price.

Speaker 11

Awesome. Sounds good. Right. Thanks for taking

Speaker 3

the question. From a production profile point, I mean, they announced that they're fully into the undergrounds now and we're actually seeing that production side very positively at the moment.

Speaker 11

Yes, perfect. That's what I thought too. So I was thinking it would slightly offset. But thanks so much team for taking my questions and of course best wishes Gary.

Speaker 4

Thanks again Larry. Thanks Larry.

Operator

Thank you. And your next question comes from the line of Martin Pradier from Veritas. Please go ahead.

Speaker 12

Thank you very much for taking my question. I want a little bit more details on what you expect for 2025 and 2026 for Goose, Mineral Park, Blackwater and Platte Reef in terms of production.

Speaker 1

So in 2025, the four together, we would suggest 20,000 to 25,000 GEOs. So that's accounting for a half year startup and of course a ramp up after that. The following year, we wouldn't it won't be quite into full production in 2026, but by mid-twenty twenty six, we should be hitting our stride. I mean, a full year production at Blackwater is about 30,000 GEOs to our account. So we'll have about that in our 2026 profile.

Speaker 12

Okay. And how big is Mineral Park in 2026?

Speaker 1

About 10,000 to 12,000 GEOs would be a reasonable assumption.

Speaker 10

Great. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. And your next question comes from the line of Florida Ashbourne from Edison. Please go ahead.

Speaker 12

Thank you. And if I

Speaker 8

could proffer my congratulations as well on an excellent year and an excellent quarter. My best wishes to Gary, of course. I know that counterfactuals can be difficult, but I was interested by your answer to the cobalt question. And I just wonder, I'm sure you've seen the cobalt price in the last few days, which is suddenly 50% higher than it was a few days before that. And I wonder if the cobalt price on the December 31 had been what it is today.

Speaker 8

Would you have impaired the asset?

Speaker 4

Yes. It's always difficult to pick the price that you're going to be using and especially in these volatile times. I think the review that we've been following the cobalt price and it's been depressed pretty consistently over the last twelve to sixteen months. And I think the recent rally that we've seen is being driven by the DRC kind of stemming production. So we're just not sure that we can rely upon that to continue.

Speaker 4

That wasn't really your question. If the prices were to remain at these levels, would we have compared it? Probably not. But I think it's unlikely that we'll be talking about impairments or impairment reversals on Boise's moving forward. And we just wanted to take that noise out of the equation.

Speaker 8

No, understood. No, I understand. Thank you. But I appreciate it nonetheless. Thank you, Gary.

Speaker 8

Thank you, team very much. And Gary, we will miss you very much in London.

Speaker 4

Charlie, it's been a pleasure.

Speaker 5

Thank you everyone for your time today. In closing, we're pleased to have reported a record setting quarter to close 2024. Wheaton's high quality long life portfolio of assets, sector leading growth profile and commitment to sustainability provides our shareholders with a solid outlook for the future as one of the best vehicles for investing into the gold and precious metals space. I'm sincerely thankful to all of our stakeholders for being part of Wheaton's success and I look forward to another strong year ahead. I have never been more excited about the future of the company as I am today.

Speaker 5

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. And this concludes today's call. Thank you for participating. You may all disconnect.

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Neurocrine Biosciences Q4 2024
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