(IHS) Q4 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
March 18, 2025

There are 4 speakers on the call.

Operator

Thank you for joining. Can I get your first and last name? And your company name, please? Was that Anderson Family Office? Sorry, sir.

Operator

Thank you. I'll take you through. Have a good day.

Speaker 1

Berg, Head of Investor Relations here at IHS. With me today are Stan Darwish, our Chairman and CEO and Steve Howden, our CFO. This morning, we filed our annual report on Form 20 F for the full year ended 12/31/2024 with the SEC, which can also be found on the Investor Relations section of our website and issued a related earnings release, presentation and supplemental deck. These are the consolidated results of IHS Holding Limited, which is listed on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker symbol IHS and which comprises the entirety of the Group's operations. Before we discuss the results, I would like to draw your attention to the disclaimer set out at the beginning of the presentation on Slide two, which should be read in full along with the cautionary statements regarding forward looking statements set out in our earnings release and 20 F filed as well today.

Speaker 1

In particular, the information to be discussed may contain forward looking statements, which by their nature involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other important factors, some of which are beyond our control which are difficult to predict and other factors which may cause actual results, performance or achievements or industry results to be materially different from any future results, performance or achievements or industry results expressed or implied by such forward looking statements, including those discussed in the Risk Factors section of our Form 20 F filed today with the Securities and Exchange Commission and other filings with the SEC. We'll also refer to non IFRS measures including adjusted EBITDA that we view as important in assessing the performance of our business and ALSBF that we view as important in assessing the liquidity of our business. Our reconciliation of non IFRS metrics to the nearest IFRS metrics can be found in our earnings presentation, which is available on the Investor Relations section of our website. And with that, I'd like to turn the call over to Sam Darwish, our Chairman and CEO.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Robert, and welcome, everyone, to our fourth quarter and full year twenty twenty four earnings results call. We're reporting a strong performance in 2024, ending the year on a high with a strong Q4. Our key metrics, revenue, adjusted EBITDA and ALFCF, all coming in ahead of our guidance, while CapEx was below expectations. And we saw a drop in our consolidated net leverage ratio. Our positive momentum reflects the continued strong secular trends we are seeing across our business, a more stable macroeconomic environment, strong operational focus, as well as the significant commercial and financial progress we have made during 2024 as part of our ongoing strategic review.

Speaker 2

I'll go into more details on these important drivers on the next slide. Looking at our revenue, we saw 48% organic growth driven by 6.5% constant currency growth, as well as a significant benefit from our Forex resets and power indexation, which play a vital role in helping to offset the currency devaluation we face during the year. As you can see from the slide, this was above our guidance range and was aided by 9.2% constant currency growth in the fourth quarter twenty twenty four compared to the fourth quarter of twenty twenty three, driven by growth in revenue from colocation, lease amendments and new sites. We continue to benefit from strong structural trends with growth underpinned by continued five gs deployment across our markets and importantly, macroeconomic stabilization within our largest market, Nigeria. Turning to profitability, our adjusted EBITDA reached $928,000,000 in 2024 with a margin of 54.3%, up 100 basis points compared to 2023.

Speaker 2

Again, this came in ahead of our guidance on the back of strong momentum in Q4, where we achieved a 56.3% margin. This performance against the backdrop of the macroeconomic headwind we have been navigating highlights the resilience of our financial model, the strength of our current structures and our continued financial discipline. We are pleased with our ALFCF generation during the year, which at $3.00 $4,000,000 was also ahead of guidance and was driven by operational performance and ongoing CapEx optimization. As I will discuss shortly, we continue to focus on our balance sheet with our net leverage at 3.7 times at the end of twenty twenty four, falling from 3.9 times at the end of Q3 twenty twenty four. We carried out a number of significant refinancing through the years, which pushed out our maturities and shifted more of our debt into local currency.

Speaker 2

As part of our strategic review, we received disposal proceeds from the sale of our Kuwait operations in December 2024, which we sold at 14.2 percent adjusted EBITDA after leases and we will look to continue to earmark excess cash for further debt repayment. We are comforted that since the Q1 twenty twenty four significant Naira devaluation in Nigeria, we have seen the Naira strengthening on good U. S. Dollar availability, enabling us to source and upstream $271,000,000 from Nigeria alone in 2024. In addition to the solid financial performance, we have made significant progress through 2024 across a number of our strategic initiatives.

Speaker 2

Let's turn to Slide six to look at some of the highlights. In May 2024, we outlined some initial objectives of our strategic review, all aimed at creating shareholder value. These included: one, increasing our profitability and substantially reducing our CapEx to increase cash flow generation two, continuing to review our portfolio of markets with a target of raising $500,000,000 to $1,000,000,000 And three, capital allocation of excess cash flow following the implementation of these strategic initiatives was expected to be primarily utilized to reduce debt. And we will also consider share buybacks and or introducing a dividend policy. During the year, we have delivered on numerous elements of our strategic review, pushing to unlock shareholder value versus what we believe is our existing suppressed valuation.

Speaker 2

We believe we have made strong commercial progress, an important area for us in terms of improving the financial profile of the business, while also enabling us to continue to de risk our future cash flow. We have extended commercial contracts with key customers into the next decade, including all our MTN MLAs covering over 25,070 up to 2,032 or beyond. In addition to the extension of our AirTel Nigeria MLA to 02/1931. This growth aligns under a series of successful customer renewals. The result of this significant commercial progress is that we have recently renewed or extended 72% of our group revenue, which we believe markedly improves our financial profile and visibility.

Speaker 2

Our average tenant term now sits at seven point eight years and we have increased our contracted revenue to $11,900,000,000 We are also reassured by the improving backdrop within our largest market, Nigeria. In January, Nigeria's telecom regulator, the NCC, approved a 50% increase in tariff for mobile network carriers. The first tariff adjustment in twelve years. These increases will support the ability of our carrier customers to continue investing in infrastructure and innovation, ultimately benefiting consumers through improved services and connectivity, including better network quality and greater coverage. Through a number of initiatives, we have de risked our operating model by materially reducing our exposure to power prices with the expectation that this will result in reduced volatility of our earnings.

Speaker 2

Through our contract renewals, we have moved the significant majority of our business to either power pass through like in South Africa or power indexation like in Nigeria, closer aligning our operating model to the steel and gas model in more developed countries. As I have already highlighted, our 2024 financial performance highlights the progress we have made towards our goal of increasing adjusted EBITDA and substantially reducing our CapEx to increase cash flow generation with over $300,000,000 of ALSGF generated in 2024 despite significant Forex headwinds. In addition to our continued course discipline and narrowed focus on capital allocation, we will benefit from a reduction in revolving tax rates in Nigeria. Effective from 01/01/2025, amounts withheld by customers in Nigeria, which are paid to the IFRS, were reduced from 10% to 2%. And we expect this to be significantly supportive to our cash flow generation in 2025 and going forward.

Speaker 2

We also continue to assess group wide costs, CapEx structures and new ways to operate our network, including how we can introduce more technology, especially artificial intelligence into our ways of working to help us realize future efficiencies. Steve will discuss our financial performance and 2025 guidance in more depth later in this call. But to summarize, we are pleased with the progress we have made and our 2025 guidance implies a continuation of these trends with continued organic revenue growth and a further step up in adjusted EBITDA margin and ALSCF generation notwithstanding the disposal of our Kuwaiti business. Moving to our balance sheet, we continue to take a disciplined approach to capital deployment, recognizing the importance of maintaining a strong balance sheet. We made important moves during the year in line with our strategic priorities to extend our debt maturity profile and shift more of our debts into local currency.

Speaker 2

This was evidenced in Q4 when we refinanced $1,600,000,000 of our debt through the issuance of new senior notes and a new term loan. We remain comfortable with our track and liquidity position with over $900,000,000 of available liquidity at the end of twenty twenty four. During the year, we made significant enhancements to our governance. The proposals to amend the company's articles of association were approved by shareholders at the AGM held in June. The working results marked a significant achievement for IHS, better aligning our governance framework with that of mature U.

Speaker 2

S. Listed companies. As part of our strategic review, we committed to examining our portfolio of markets to determine the right composition for IHS going forward. In December, we completed the disposal of our 70% stake in IHS Kuwait to Zane Kuwait with an enterprise value of $230,000,000 that we believe highlights the significant value contained within the component part of our wider portfolio. This comes on top of the sale of our Peru business earlier in the year.

Speaker 2

Our current footprint spans eight markets across two continents can be seen on Slide seven. Our disposal work remains in progress as we continue with the target of raising $500 to $1,000,000,000 As Pingi indicated, excess cash following implementation of our strategic initiatives is expected to be primarily used to reduce debt while also considering share buybacks and or introducing a dividend policy. So to summarize on Slide eight, after a strong fourth quarter performance, we ended 2024 with financial results ahead of guidance, leverage reducing, asset disposals underway, shareholder rights improved and with the de risk commercial and operating business model. We have made significant progress towards our strategic goals, but there is more work to do. Looking to 2025 and beyond, we remain focused on further enhancing our profitability and cash flow generation as can be seen in our 2025 guidance.

Speaker 2

We are committed to further strengthening our balance sheet supported by further select asset disposals, aiming to deliver increasing returns for all our shareholders. We remain excited by the strong structural growth opportunities across our footprint and believe we are well placed to leverage our market leading positions to support growing demand for our critical communications infrastructure with growth underpinned by continued five gs deployment across our larger markets. An improving backlog with our largest market in Nigeria after recent carrier tariff rate increases and an improving macroeconomic position continues to help. And with that, I'll turn the call over to Steve. Thanks, Sam, and hello, everyone.

Speaker 2

Turning to Slide 10, here we show our full year 2024 and fourth quarter twenty twenty four performance. Our results came in better than expected against the challenging but improving macroeconomic environment in Nigeria, where we saw higher levels of stability in the latter part of the year. As we look at the results, please note the year over year comparisons are in some cases impacted by the Kuwait disposal that closed in December 2024 and we've called these out where relevant. In terms of the results, both towers and tenants are down approximately 21% respectively year over year, while lease amendments increased by high single digit percentages. Both Tower and Tenant figures would have grown year on year in the absence of the Kuwait disposal.

Speaker 2

On a reported basis, in the fourth quarter, revenue declined by approximately 14% year

Operator

on

Speaker 2

year, impacted by the very different FX environment versus the fourth quarter of twenty twenty three and the new financial terms with MTN Nigeria, but increased 4.2% compared to the third quarter of twenty twenty four. As a reminder, Naira average FX rate for the dollar was N815 in the fourth quarter of twenty twenty three and was N1629 in the fourth quarter of twenty twenty four. Adjusted EBITDA was down 10% year on year, but adjusted EBITDA margin was up two fifty basis points, reflecting our continued cost control and the resilience of our financial model. Fourth quarter twenty twenty four adjusted EBITDA was in line with third quarter adjusted EBITDA. Meanwhile, ALFCF declined by almost 9%, impacted by similar factors affecting revenue and adjusted EBITDA in addition to the higher interest costs following our bond refinancing in November.

Speaker 2

Fourth quarter '20 '20 '4 ALFCS increased again though by 23% versus third quarter twenty twenty four ALFCS. Our level of CapEx investment decreased by 37% in the quarter and 56% for the year, largely driven by the pullback in CapEx across all segments as we continue to focus on improving cash generation. Finally, our consolidated net leverage ratio increased year on year to 3.7 times at the end of the year. Having peaked at 3.9 times in second quarter and third quarter of twenty twenty four, it has now delevered 0.2 times from third quarter to the end of the year, which obviously includes the impact of the Kuwait disposal. Slide 11 shows the components of our fourth quarter twenty twenty four revenue on a consolidated basis, where you can see how the Nairo devaluation in particular turned a quarter of strong organic and constant currency growth into a 14 decline.

Speaker 2

The Nairo devalued 50% in Q4 'twenty four versus Q4 'twenty three, yet the business delivered organic revenue growth of 39%, driven primarily by FX reset, power, CPI escalators and lease amendments. And from a constant currency perspective, revenue grew over 9%, driven primarily by CPI escalations, new lease amendments and new collocations. So positive signs of the fundamental underlying tenancy growth continuing across

Speaker 1

the active

Speaker 2

market. The right side of the page shows the organic growth rates of each of our segments for the quarter, where our Nigeria segment grew approximately 62, obviously, including a large benefit from the FX reset. Slide 12 shows the full year version of our growth bridge highlighting the FX impact again, but also the contractual protections of CPI escalators and FX resets that help to partly mitigate the FX volatility. On Slide 13, you can see our consolidated revenue, adjusted EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA margin for the fourth quarter and full year 2024, as we've already discussed and highlighting that our results beat our guidance across the metrics. Specifically in the fourth quarter of twenty twenty four, adjusted EBITDA of $246,000,000 and adjusted EBITDA margin of 56.3% continues the trend of higher margins post our first quarter dip from that narrowed devaluation.

Speaker 2

On to Slide 14, an adjusted leverage free cash flow. In the fourth quarter of twenty twenty four, we generated ALSPF of 107,000,000 at the 9.3% decrease versus the fourth quarter of twenty twenty three. This was primarily due to the decrease in adjusted EBITDA and an increase in interest costs following our November bond refinancing, partially offset by a decrease in revenue withholding tax. Our ALFCS cash conversion rate was 43.5%. Again, now I'd like to note the positive progression of ALFCS and its conversion rate through the quarters of twenty twenty four.

Speaker 2

For the full year, we generated ALFCS of $3.00 $4,000,000 and our ALFCS cash conversion rate was 32.8%. On to CapEx and fourth quarter '20 '4 CapEx of $83,000,000 decreased 37% year on year and full year CapEx of $256,000,000 decreased by 56%, continuing the trends that we've seen in

Speaker 1

the recent

Speaker 2

quarters. The decrease in the full year CapEx is driven by lower expenditure across all of our segments. The decrease in Nigeria, primarily driven by reductions related to Project Green, given the investment in that project is largely complete. In Sub Saharan Africa, primarily driven by a decrease in refurbishment CapEx. And the reduction in LatAm CapEx, driven by decreases related to fiber and new site CapEx, although we still retain a healthy level of new site build in Brazil.

Speaker 2

On the segment review, on to Slide 15, I'll start as usual with Nigeria. In November, the Central Bank of Nigeria introduced a payment system vision 2025, that's a strategic roadmap for the Nigeria payment system as CBN aims to continue enhancing its financial transparency. In November, the Monetary Policy Committee increased interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing the NPR to 27.5. That's a total of six rate hikes during 2024. These actions appear to have had a positive impact again on Nigeria's FX market with the currency appreciating in December and more recently into Q1 twenty twenty five.

Speaker 2

We've seen an increase in U. S. Dollars in Nigeria and FX reserves in the country of a gain increase to $40,900,000,000 at the December 2024, up from $38,400,000,000 at the September 2024. And since the FX environment adjusted in Q1, we've been able to continue upstreaming. We've upstreamed $271,000,000 to the group during the year from Nigeria alone.

Speaker 2

Most recently, the National Bureau of Statistics rebates Nigeria's Consumer Price Index, bringing January 2025 headline inflation rate to 24.5% versus the 34.8% in December of twenty twenty four. And then most recently in February of this year, '20 '20 '5, the MPC held the policy rate steady at 27.5% for the first time in six meetings and reaffirm they remain focused on creating price stability in the country. So continued macroeconomic progress, but obviously more work still to be done. For us, specifically in Nigeria for IHF, our fourth quarter twenty twenty four revenue of $259,000,000 decreased 19% year on year on a reported basis, reflecting what we've previously discussed, the significant FX headwinds year over year and the impact of the new financial terms with MTN Nigeria. This more than offset the 61.5% organic growth, which was driven primarily by FX reset from power indexation.

Speaker 2

Our co location rate was down to 1.56 times, down from 1.59 times in the fourth quarter of twenty twenty three, given we reintegrated two ten towers and we had five twenty nine tenant churn in the third quarter of twenty twenty four from our smallest key customer in Nigeria, which we were not recognizing revenue on at the time. So lease amendment continues to be an important driver of growth, increasing 3% year on year as our customers added additional equipment to our site. And the fourth quarter twenty twenty four segment adjusted EBITDA in Nigeria was 155,000,000 that's a 22.5% decrease from a year ago, while segment adjusted EBITDA margin was down two fifty basis points to 59.8% given the reduction in revenue described and a write down of inventory in the period as well, partially offset by a reduction in tower repairs, maintenance costs and diesel costs. Moving to our Sub Saharan African segment. Revenue was broadly flat and segment adjusted EBITDA increased 29.6% year on year.

Speaker 2

This performance was primarily due to lower revenues and lower costs being recognized in South Africa following the unwind of the power managed services agreement with MTN South Africa, which has no impact on segment adjusted EBITDA. The performance has further benefited from new co locations, lower regulatory fees and reduced tower repairs and maintenance costs and segment adjusted EBITDA margin increased substantially by fourteen eighty basis points as a result to 65.1%. In our LatAm segment, Towson tenants grew by 7.97.2% respectively. Revenue decreased by 18% because of negative FX movements and the reduction in revenue recognition from OIS given their judicial recovery proceeding early in 2024. In Brazil, our second largest market with 8,326 towers, macro conditions softened this quarter as the Brazilian reais continued to devalue against the dollar and there were increases in both interest rates and inflation.

Speaker 2

In terms of LatAm profitability, while segment adjusted EBITDA decreased by 10%, segment adjusted EBITDA margin increased seven fifty basis points versus the fourth quarter of twenty twenty three, which mostly reflects the decrease in revenue, while savings across several cost lines was accretive for margins. And then MENA, as Sam discussed, we completed the disposal of our 7% interest in IHS Kuwait on 12/19/2024, resulting in twelve fewer days trading in both the fourth quarter of twenty twenty four and the full year 2024 when comparing to the prior periods. Given the disposal date as of the end of the year, the entire tower portfolio, tenants and lease amendments have been deconsolidated. Given our Kuwait disposal and our decision not to commence operations in Egypt, MENA will not be a reportable segment from Q1 twenty twenty five. Slide 17 looks at our returns and capital allocation.

Speaker 2

In 2024, we continue to focus on driving returns and deliver the return on invested capital of 15.8% versus 14.6% the prior year. Our improved 2024 ROIP reflects our narrowed focus on capital allocation and has benefited from, amongst other things, robust free cash flow generation, the impact of the Niner's evaluation and the disposal of our Kuwaiti operation. In terms of capital allocation, you can see that a significant portion of our spend in FY 2024 was related to discretionary CapEx outside of new sites, followed by maintenance or non discretionary CapEx and new site CapEx itself, where we're a leading builder of new sites in Brazil. The $130,000,000 discretionary CapEx excluding new sites was largely spent on fiber rollout, augmentation for collocation and lease amendments and some other cost saving initiatives. Discretionary CapEx declined significantly from 2023 given our narrowed focus on capital allocation and given the Project Green investment is now largely complete.

Speaker 2

Moving to Slide 18, we look at the capital structure and its related items. So at the end of the year, at the end of twenty twenty four, we had approximately $3,900,000,000 of external debt and IFRS 16 lease liabilities and that's a reduction of approximately $240,000,000 versus the third quarter of twenty twenty four. And of the $3,900,000,000 approximately $2,200,000,000 represents our bond financings including our successful November 2024, dollars '1 point '2 billion dual tranche senior notes refinancing. In the other indebtedness line is our new $439,000,000 5 year term loan refinance that we completed in October of twenty twenty four. And as Sam mentioned, these refinancing are evidence of a desire to continue to improve the strength and flexibility of our balance sheet, which is a really important component of our strategic review.

Speaker 2

Through this new term loan in the senior notes, we extended our twenty twenty five, partial '26 and 2027 maturities out to 2029, '20 '13 and 02/1931. Also with the new South African rand branch of our term loan, it swaps dollar obligations into local currency as we seek to more closely match our debt FX exposure to our current revenue FX profile. And we believe we've managed to achieve this at manageable interest rate versus the previous debt it was replacing. Cash and cash equivalents was $578,000,000 at the end of the year. And in terms of where that cash is held, approximately 19% was held in Naira at our Nigeria business.

Speaker 2

And as we mentioned earlier, we've been upstreaming from Nigeria. We upstreamed another $153,000,000 from Nigeria in the fourth quarter, bringing the total from Nigeria to $271,000,000 for 2024 as a whole. While we continue to upstream in 2025, we do caution it remains to be determined if the increased dollar availability will be sustained. Consequently, from all these moving elements at the end of the year, our consolidated net debt was down over $400,000,000 to $3,300,000,000 Our consolidated net leverage ratio came down 0.2 times to 3.7 times versus the end of the third quarter twenty twenty four. And as communicated last quarter, we expected leverage to drop following the realization of any disposals and our 3.7 times net leverage ratio captures the impact of our Kuwait sale in December of twenty twenty four.

Speaker 2

We expect leverage to remain within our target three to four times net leverage ratio in 2025, but continuing to drop organically during the year, supplemented by any further disposals. Moving to Slide 19, we're introducing 2025 guidance that shows further growth in our revenues when excluding the impact of the Kuwait disposal, growth in adjusted EBITDA and also growth in ALFCS. It includes revenue in the range of 1,680,000,000 to $1,710,000,000 implying organic growth of 12% year on year at the midpoint of the range, adjusted EBITDA in the range of $960,000,000 to $980,000,000 implying 4% growth at the midpoint ALFPS in the range of $350,000,000 to $370,000,000 implying 18% growth at the midpoint and total CapEx in the range of $260,000,000 to $290,000,000 So a few points I'd like to make here. And number one, although it might be obvious, our 2025 guidance excludes any contribution from Kuwait after its disposal at the end of twenty twenty four. And as a reminder, the MENA segment revenue in 2024 was $45,000,000 Secondly, I'll speak more about FX in a moment, but we include assumptions of continuing devaluation in the naira, albeit much more moderate than what we saw in 2024.

Speaker 2

And thirdly, our 2025 guidance includes the impact from the approximate 1,000 sites that were not renewed as part of the agreement with MTN Nigeria back in August of twenty twenty four. With regards to CapEx, we anticipate to spend between $260,000,000 and $290,000,000 That's in line with our strategic priority of taking a narrow approach to capital deployment and improving our cash flow generation. This CapEx range, which includes a reduced BTS guidance versus previous years, is broadly in line with what we spent in 2024 and we believe enables us to still uphold our goal of maintaining double digit organic revenue growth in 2025. For the year, we expect to build approximately 500 towers, including approximately 400 in Brazil. We continue to recognize the importance of maintaining a strong balance sheet and reiterate our net leverage target of three to four times, albeit we expect to be within the bottom half of the range by year end.

Speaker 2

That's driven by adjusted EBITDA growth and higher cash flow generation. Disposals will supplement this deleveraging as and when they complete. As I said, our guidance also reflects an expected significant increase in ALFCS in 2025, driven by adjusted EBITDA growth, narrowed capital allocation and lower withholding tax in Nigeria after the rate was reduced from 10% to 2% effective at the start of 2025. The bottom of the slide shows the average annual FX rate assumptions we've used in our 2025 guidance. For the year, we're assuming an average rate of N1640 for The U.

Speaker 2

S. Dollar, which includes N1525 dollars for the dollar in Q1 and then devaluation through the year to N1785 dollars by year end. And finally on Slide 20, we provide the estimated full year financial impact of the theoretical 10% devaluation or appreciation in the naira and how that would impact our financials. While our 2025 guidance already assumes an annual average of N1640 dollars for the full year, here we've shown the impact of a 10% movement beyond what we've already assumed in guidance. The figures in the middle of the page, including the approximate 35,000,000 to $40,000,000 and $20,000,000 to $25,000,000 impact to revenue and adjusted EBITDA respectively, provide a sense of what the twelve month run rate impact would be using our 2025 expectations.

Speaker 2

You'll see on the right side, the illustration in the middle of the page excludes an incremental approximately $15,000,000 that could impact in the quarter of devaluation actually occurring, assuming the devaluation was to occur at the beginning of the quarter. That represents the maximum lag that could occur between devaluation and when most of our FX resets would start to kick in at the beginning of the next quarter. And as a reminder, the vast majority of our resets are quarterly. This now brings us to the end of our formal presentation. We thank you for your time today.

Speaker 2

And operator, please now open the line for questions. Thank you. We'll now begin the Q and A session. Our first question for today comes from Richard Cho of JPMorgan. Your line is now open.

Speaker 2

Please go ahead.

Speaker 3

Hi. I wanted to get an update on the air tow new tenancies in Nigeria, how that's going so far? And how much of that is planned for this year? Hi, Richard.

Speaker 2

Good to hear from you. So yes, the actual contract is progressing. We've got quite a bit done in the second half of twenty twenty four and never got that come through in 2025 and 2026. So we haven't kind of given specific guidance on numbers, but that contract is growing nicely. And as a reminder, most of that's collocation of five gs lease elements.

Speaker 2

There is a little bit of BTS handling of price in 2025 and 2026 for most of this collocation lease amendments.

Speaker 3

Great. And then in talking about the potential for stock buybacks and dividend, is there a preference? And how should we think about the timing of that evolving this year?

Speaker 2

Yes. I mean, I think that continues to be under evaluation. And what we have said for a little while is that we're in the process of disposing of $500 to $1,000,000,000 in assets that's ongoing. And that's the first target. We want to get that done.

Speaker 2

Kuwait disposal was obviously a first step along that path and more work to do there. And then once we've got a bit further into that disposal program, then we'll look to reassess that option. We said that the first amount will primarily reduce the reducing debt and that remains the case. But then we are obviously starting to think through what a share buyback and dividend program could look like. As a reminder, we did we have had a small share buyback program in place.

Speaker 2

We didn't utilize it for most of 2024, given we were under the strategic review. And so there is a history of doing that. But there's no real preference at this point between those eventual capital allocation decisions between share buyback and dividends. We'll evaluate that over the coming months and quarters.

Speaker 3

Thank you.

Speaker 2

Hi, this is Sam. I do want to add something on the first question that you had on Airtel in Nigeria. Look, last year was a very tough year for everyone. But as we're seeing now Nigeria fighting back, helped by the fact that it is maybe not tied or affected by The U. S.

Speaker 2

Tariff new tariff policies. Its currency has increased by 7% since the November. It's probably the top performing currency in the world at the moment. Stock markets in Nigeria are delivering 4% growth in dollar terms since the beginning of this year, better than many bigger markets since Latin is subsiding. So we've seen the carriers beginning to be more bullish about their traffic plan.

Speaker 2

Both carriers the carriers have announced that. So we are extremely bullish about Nigeria at the moment about the rollout of both NTM and Airtel and others. And you can see that in our numbers and in our guidance.

Speaker 3

One follow-up with that, Sam. Do you expect the carriers, because of the new tariffs, to implement network spending this year that will help IHS? Or is that more of a 2026 event?

Speaker 2

Sorry, the what? I didn't get the question.

Speaker 3

Well, the spending from the new tariffs by NPN and Airtel and other carriers, do you think that's an impact for 2025 or more for 2026?

Speaker 2

I believe it will be partly in 2025. It has to be partly in 2025 because several of they have service, quality of service and rollout soft rollout obligations in my view. It wasn't really public, but I do believe that the government would like to see better quality of service, better rollout in certain areas, especially rural areas. So I do think it's not crystal clear at the moment, but I do think that we will see a positive impact this year also. Thank you.

Speaker 2

Our next question comes from Jim Schneider of Goldman Sachs. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Speaker 3

Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. Just on the strategic review, you've obviously made very good progress on some of the portfolio optimization activities already. You're already within the high end maybe of your target leverage range. So maybe could you characterize how much more in there to go in terms of portfolio optimization?

Speaker 3

Are we more than halfway done here? Or are we even closer to that to the end of that process? And then maybe you've been very clear about your desire to do either share backs and or dividend policy. But can you maybe talk about your appetite for incremental acquisitions of assets to maybe bolster your portfolio in areas where you already have a live deal?

Speaker 2

Thank you. Thanks for the question. So in terms of the first part, we've been pretty public and pretty consistent since May of last year that we were targeting $500,000,000 to $1,000,000,000 of asset disposals. We've done one around $230,000,000 for Kuwait. So that indicates we're not done yet.

Speaker 2

We've managed to get through a significant amount of work and lots of progress in other areas as well last week. And you heard Sam talk about earlier in the earnings call around the commercial side, the operational side. Specifically, in relation to balance sheet, yes, we're now starting to see all of that cash flow generation and disposals come to fruition in reducing debt, reducing leverage. We're down at 3.7 times now. And I'll just make clear again reiterate, our target range is three to four times leverage, but we do expect to be in the bottom half of that range by the end of twenty twenty five.

Speaker 2

That's without any further disposals. So obviously, one would assume that future disposals would supplement that positively as well. So that's kind of where we are on that piece. In relation to wider cash allocation decisions, the acquisitions are not on the agenda at this point in time. We're very focused on increasing cash flow generation, neutralizing that cash to debt pay down and more focused around potential share buybacks and dividend energy costs before we think again on acquisitions.

Speaker 2

But as we said, we keep evaluating that through the course of the year. We're very pleased with where things have come operating in the business and also macroeconomically starting to look better and better in a variety of markets. So we'll keep that under evaluation, but M and A is probably at the end of the Q2 at the moment.

Speaker 3

Helpful. And then in the answer to the prior question, Sam, I think you referenced the desire for NTM and other areas in Iberia that maybe increasing CapEx spending as

Speaker 2

early as the end of

Speaker 3

this year and into next year. Can you maybe talk about maybe the one or two other markets where you see the most positive macro indicators and specific signals from carriers outside Nigeria where they might start to increase CapEx?

Speaker 2

Yes. I'll say that, Simon, can jump in as well. We're continuing to see decent momentum across the variety of our African markets. They don't add up to as much as a big market like Nigeria, but we're continuing to see positive momentum in the francophone market, Cameron and Cote D'Ivoire with leasing activity via collocation and the want for new build sites, etcetera. So there's plenty going on in francophone Africa.

Speaker 2

South Africa continues to sort of add incrementally. And even Brazil, Brazil has had a bit more macroeconomic stock in the last quarter or two. But even there, we're seeing some fundamental dynamics have shifted in the last six to twelve months in that market, which hopefully lead to to a much more positive near term outlook. We've been going through our workings with OIBE and as we've done with the telcos as well. That's kind of coming to a conclusion now.

Speaker 2

And what we're seeing is certainly the carriers are looking at substantial five gs rollout. So although, presumably that sounds a bit of a softer importance, we can see where it could go and it's a positive long story picture. Sound good going to add anything? I think just to the ice wave that we really believe Africa could be a direct beneficiary of the impending metaphors that we're seeing happening between more markets that are integrated with U. S.

Speaker 2

Economies because largely Africa is not integrated in terms of manufacturing or other large kind of like economic sectors. So we're seeing that. We're seeing the impact of many of these policies that have or many of the issues that we've seen, the macro issues that we've seen kind of like coming back out of it. So we're extremely bullish and we believe the carriers will indeed increase their CapEx. There's very few announcements indicated they are.

Speaker 2

More bullish, it's more they're beginning to increase. So we expect to see much more in the coming few months. Thank you. Our next question comes from Michael Rylands of Citi. Your line is now open.

Speaker 2

Please go ahead. Thanks and good morning. So first, thank you for adding into the revenue bridge, the constant currency presentation disclosures. I'm curious if you could share those constant currency performance metrics by region for 2024 and compare what those expectations are within the guidance by segment for 2025? Hi, Mike.

Speaker 2

Well, you're welcome. I know it's something that you're after, so we added into our disclosures. I also know you like more and more. We haven't put it in, in terms of the forward looking guidance for the year. That's something that we can maybe think through for future periods.

Speaker 2

But hopefully, it's helpful for people to see. As we break down the various components of that growth, there's obviously quite a lot of moving parts, especially given we have FX reset and the impact of FX given our emerging market currency exposure. So we try to simplify all that. It doesn't actually change the fundamental presentation of what we've shown to people before in the revenue bridges, but obviously, it just compartmentalizes elements stripping out that FX. So we haven't given it some forward looking.

Speaker 2

Let us think through that. But that's something we could add in future, I don't see one up. And maybe then just in the aggregate level, so if you look at what's implied in that 12% at the midpoint, are there some indications that you can give us on like how much is coming from co location and lease amendments in aggregate for the portfolio versus your escalators or other components of the bridge just to center around where the growth is coming from for the business in 'twenty five as it would compare to full year 'twenty four? Yes. So if you look at, if you look on our earnings presentation on Slide 12, you see the FY 2024 bridge and we just use that as a guide.

Speaker 2

So CPI for 2025 will be a little bit down, not too much down, but a little bit down versus that as we see inflation rates moderating. New sites roughly similar. Collocation will be up versus that. New lease amendments and fiber similar, maybe a little bit less, but certainly new collocations up. And then other is really sort of the noise and that would be next to zero at this point in time.

Speaker 2

That's really 2023 items that are flushing out of the comparables. So yes, not too dissimilar, but a bit more focused on collocations is what we are forecasting and seeing in the market. Great. And I apologize if I missed this in the commentary. On Slide 19, the CapEx range is $260,000,000 to $290,000,000 How much of that is recurring CapEx that's included in the ALFCS definition?

Speaker 2

And how much of that is Yes, $90,000,000 CapEx? Yes. Yes. It's about a third of that CapEx is maintenance, which gets to sort of within sort of ranges midpoint about $85,000,000 9 million dollars of maintenance CapEx. If you remember, from the end of last year, we've been guiding sort of $24,000,000 to $25,000,000 per quarter of maintenance CapEx.

Speaker 2

We've also disposed of the business and some other work we've been doing. So we're trending a little bit lower than that, about $22,000,000.23000000 dollars a quarter at this point in time for maintenance CapEx. And just a last question. As you think about your different markets, industry structure, possible consolidations, is there anything that you want to flag for us that's left in terms of the possible churn in the business over the next few years that we all should be mindful of? So I think everybody is aware of the NJNICERIA piece, which is playing out through the course of 2025, and that was well planned out of last year.

Speaker 2

But other than that, no, we're not seeing anything else. We're seeing positive leasing trends across all major markets. So yes, more of a positive picture as well. Mike, at the moment, all our contracts are renewed into the 2030s. At the moment, we've got more than $12,000,000,000 or $13,000,000,000 fees of contracted revenue.

Speaker 2

But our exposure to oil in Brazil at the moment is less than 1%, if any. So we feel extremely confident and comfortable with where we stand. Thank you. Our next question comes from Gestapo Kamath of Jefferies. Gestapo, your line is now open.

Speaker 2

Please go ahead. Hello, yes. Congratulations on the results and thank you very much for the presentation and all the details. My first question is, again, sorry to follow-up on the asset disposals. I just wanted some confirmation if you were still going to adhere to your previous $500,000,000 to 1,000,000,000 target for asset sales.

Speaker 2

And as far as your portfolio selection for these asset sales, what will be the broader criteria? Any specific geographies or types of assets that you are targeting here? Any color on that would be very helpful. That's my first question. So yes, the $500,000,000 to $1,000,000,000 range is the target.

Speaker 2

So that's very straightforward. We're working hard on that. And in terms of portfolio selection or market selection, we've also said historically that it could include things like minority stakes, for example. So we weren't ruling out a number of different value realization opportunities. We haven't been specific on markets.

Speaker 2

Clearly, we're looking to highlight the value of IHS versus its share price performance. So we are looking at a number of different opportunities and we'll keep people updated. We don't want to be negotiating these transactions in the public domain. So we'd appreciate we're not going to give too much information on live discussion. I may add also, at the end of the day, the reason we are conducting the strategic review is that we believe that we remain undervalued.

Speaker 2

We have sold a couple of asset portfolios at almost, what, three times the multiples we are given by the public market in Kuwait also 14.2, but at the moment at roughly five more or less. So we believe that is an important thing that I wanted to put out there. Nigeria is coming back, things are changing. And that's why I think it's very important to stay current and keep recalibrating our view, taking into account all the new positive realities that you are seeing. Also, if I may add, our operational performance in terms of cash flow generation has materially improved in the last year as we are introducing new ways, new operating methods, new operating procedures, many of which are using artificial intelligence in the way we distribute diesel, in the way we plan our operations on-site.

Speaker 2

And this has had also a very positive impact on our capital generation. So we're comfortable where things are at the moment. But yes, to see the points, we are continuing with what we have from the market. Understood. Yes.

Speaker 2

Thank you very much. That is very clear. And if you mind if I just clarify here, is this $500,000,000 to $1,000,000,000 target, is this enterprise value or is this like a consideration that you're targeting to receive? Thank you. Yes, pricing.

Speaker 2

Okay. Yes. Thank you. My second question would be around, you were expecting to generate more positive free cash flow and potentially like deleverage more to the bottom half of your target as you mentioned. Would you have by chance like a total debt target that you are expecting to be by the end of the year?

Speaker 2

And as far as, is there like, are you expecting to like have a tender offer on your bonds? Any specific maturities or part of your capital structure that you're planning to target? No specific debt number in mind other than making sure that the leverage is down. That will obviously depend a little bit on the activity the course of the year, including potential future M and A disposals as we discussed. But we've been clear, we want to get the leverage down to the bottom end of our target range.

Speaker 2

So that's the goal. In terms of where excess cash gets utilized, obviously, bonds are a significant part of our capital structure. I obviously wouldn't want to say anything to do with tender offers or anything like that. But there's a number of bonds that are either in call periods or coming into call periods, which is obviously an important consideration. And we also have other debt in the structure outside of the bond, which we could consider utilizing excess cash flow.

Speaker 2

So we have a number of different options available to us to utilize cash as it comes through to us. That is very clear and very helpful. And And my last question would be on working capital. You saw around $200,000,000 in receivables outflows in fiscal year twenty twenty four, although there was like a mature improvement in the fourth quarter. What are your expectations for 2025?

Speaker 2

Should we see like similar outlook pressure? Or are you expecting an improvement giving your updates on your commercial agreements, etcetera? That's my last question. Yes. So as you point out, there's significant improvement in Q4 with a pretty material work capital inflow in quarter four, which has reversed the trend.

Speaker 2

So the output has been slowing through the course of 2024 and then now back to positive territory in Q4. So I expect some continued momentum in that early part of the year, and we're not forecasting particular working capital outflows in 2025 at all. There will always be a little bit of movement between the quarters, but from a total 2025 perspective, no working capital outflow forecast. Okay. Thank you.

Speaker 2

So your and just to clarify, your expectations to be roughly working capital neutral in 2025? Yes, positive, yes. All right, perfect. Thank you very much. Congrats again.

Speaker 2

Thank you. Our next question comes from Stella Crich of Barclays.

Operator

I wonder if I could just ask about Rwanda. So you were touching before on some of the outlook for some of your markets. I mean, after this, the increase in development in DRC, there's been a little bit of political pressure on Rwanda. I was just wondering if there's anything you are monitoring there in terms of risk for the business, your capital and currency or upstreaming or anything that would be relevant for you?

Speaker 2

Hey, Stella. No, nothing too untoward, to be honest. Obviously, we're monitoring that as the sort of geopolitical situation, but no impact on our business by the operationally, financially, from an FX perspective, etcetera. So no really watching, but nothing, nothing on board, no impact on business. Thank you.

Speaker 2

That brings us the end of the IHS Holding Limited fourth quarter and full year twenty twenty four earnings results call. Should you have any questions, please contact the Investor Relations team by the e mail address investorrelationsihstowers dot com. The management team thank you for your participation today and wish you a good day. Thank you.

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Earnings Conference Call
(IHS) Q4 2024
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