Ashtead Group Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
March 4, 2025

There are 14 speakers on the call.

Operator

Hello, and welcome to the Ash Ashtead Group PLC Q3 Results Analyst Call.

Operator

I will shortly be handing you over to Brendan Horgan and Alex Pease, who will take you through today's presentation. There will be an opportunity for Q and A later in the call. For now, over to Brendan Horgan and Alex Pease at Ashtead Group PLC. Please go ahead.

Speaker 1

Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone, and welcome to Ashtead Group Q3 results presentation. I'm speaking from our U. S. Support Office and joined by Alex Pease and Will Shaw. As you know, Alex joined in October and formally took over from Michael as CFO at the February.

Speaker 1

Since joining, Alex has been highly engaged, getting to know our people and our business and working closely with Michael and the broader finance team to ensure a seamless transition. I speak on behalf of so many of our colleagues when expressing the gratitude we have for the countless contributions Michael has made to the success of our business. To consider just for a moment, the then and the now difference in this business, be it our sheer scale, profitability, financial strength or track record of success during his twenty one years. It's a body of work over a career that anyone should be proud of. And personally, what a pleasure it's been to partner with Michael over the years.

Speaker 1

So for this, it's more of a see you later than goodbye as we'll continue to have access to Michael's wise counsel until September when he formally retires from the group. Before turning the slides and as we always do, I'll begin this morning by addressing our Sunbelt team members listening in, specifically recognizing their leadership and health and safety of our people, our customers and the members of the communities we serve. In December, we closed our calendar year with a total recordable incident rate of 0.65 and a lost time rate of 0.11. Both of these metrics represent record performance in frequency and severity, the precise intent of Engage4Life. Additionally, we successfully launched our driver safety profile in January to anyone in our organization operating Sunbelt Rentals vehicle.

Speaker 1

The driver safety profile is a proprietary system which deploys a risk based approach to reducing our exposures on the road. And although early in development, we are already seeing positive trends. The key to this really is it's another example of not allowing complacency into our culture. So thank you. Thank you for your efforts to date and your ongoing commitment to Engage4Life.

Speaker 1

Given its Q3, we'll keep today's update relatively brief starting with the highlights on Slide three. The business delivered strong performance in the period with group and U. S. Rental revenues up 54% respectively, trading in line with our December guidance. Total revenues were flat year on year, largely reflecting lower used equipment sales as we expected.

Speaker 1

These rental revenues and strong fall through delivered group EBITDA growth of 3% to $3,900,000,000 PBT of $1,700,000,000 and EPS of $2.91 These are record revenues and EBITDA for the first nine months with EBITDA margins of 47% at the group level and 49% in The U. S. And before the impact of lower gains on asset sales, these are record PBT levels as well. From a capital allocation standpoint, in accordance with our Sunbelt 4 Point 0 priorities, we invested $2,100,000,000 in CapEx, which fueled existing location fleet needs and greenfield openings. We expanded our North American footprint by 54 locations through 43 greenfield openings and a further 11 through two bolt on acquisitions.

Speaker 1

Despite these levels of investment, we delivered free cash flow of $858,000,000 in the nine months. We commenced

Speaker 2

a new share back program of course in December of up to $1,500,000,000 over eighteen months and finished the period at 1.7 times net debt to EBITDA comfortably within our long term range of one to two times. Our team is laser focused on Sunbelt 4 Point 0,

Speaker 1

advancing each of the five actionable components, which you know as customer, growth, performance, sustainability and investment. I'll highlight a few successes beginning with the growth among our largest U. S. Customers, specifically our top 200, where our strategic account team and the organization at large are advancing our relationships and positioning to deliver greater than 20% rental revenue growth year on year with these customers. These wins have been gained through mega projects, cross selling and embedding win win partnering programs all obsessed with the success of our customers.

Speaker 1

There's a broad group of customers servicing construction and non construction end markets. Second is our full launch of VDAS four point zero, our vehicle dispatch optimization system, which many of you would have seen when we were in Atlanta at PowerHouse, which has been reimagined and repowered to improve availability, utilization, efficiency and user experience resulting in more wins through a clearer path to say yes to our customers. Every branch and market logistics operation is using this new system and beginning to realize its early benefits. And third, is the growth and margin progression of the four zero one locations that we opened or we added during Sunbelt three point zero. These locations have collectively grown rental revenues 30% in the nine months versus last year, while progressing EBITDA margin in excess of 300 basis points, a key deliverable in our overall plan to improve margin by 3% to 5% over the course of Sunbelt Ford Auto.

Speaker 1

These results and investment activities demonstrate our confidence in our end markets and the fundamental strength in our cash generating growth model. End market conditions remain broadly as they were in December and accordingly we expect full year results in line with our December guidance. In December, we announced our intention to move our primary listing to The U. S. And following extensive engagement with shareholders resulting in broad support of the proposed move, We announced our plans to proceed by seeking shareholder approval at a June EGM with The U.

Speaker 1

S. Listing expected to take effect in the first calendar quarter of twenty twenty six. And with that, I'll hand it over to Alex to cover the financials and outlook in more detail. Alex? Thanks, Brendan.

Speaker 1

And to our colleagues in The U.

Speaker 2

S, good morning. And to those of you in The UK, good afternoon. Thanks for joining. The Group's results for the nine months are shown on Slide five. Group rental revenue increased 5%.

Speaker 2

Total revenue was flat reflecting the planned lower level of used equipment sales. Our growth was delivered with strong margins and adjusted EBITDA margin of 47% and an operating profit margin of 26%. As expected, the lower level of used equipment sales resulted in lower gains on sale of $58,000,000 compared with $165,000,000 a year ago, which affects the absolute level of EBITDA and operating profit. After an interest expense of $429,000,000 adjusted pre tax profit was 5% lower than last year at $1,700,000,000 The higher interest expense, which increased 7% compared with this time last year, reflects principally higher absolute debt levels. In the press release, you'll notice that we have amended our disclosures to adjust out non recurring costs associated with the move of the group's primary listing to The U.

Speaker 2

S. These amounted to $5,800,000 in the period. We will continue to track these as we move through this and the next fiscal year. Adjusted earnings per share were $2.91 for the nine months. Turning now to the businesses.

Speaker 2

Slide six shows the performance in The U. S. Rental revenue for the nine months grew by 4% to a record $6,600,000,000 This has been driven by a combination of volume and rate improvement demonstrating the power of our diversified business model as well as our disciplined execution. As Brendan will discuss later, strength in mega projects and our hurricane response efforts have also mitigated ongoing weakness in the local commercial construction market. We estimate that hurricane response efforts contributed between $90,000,000 and $100,000,000 to rental revenue in the nine months weighted more heavily in the second quarter.

Speaker 2

The flat total revenue reflects the lower levels of used equipment sales compared to last year, which I referred to earlier. The third actionable component of Sunbelt four point zero is performance as we look to leverage team is also The team's also demonstrating strong cost control discipline with operating costs almost 3% below prior year. These actions contributed to a drop through for the nine months of 71% and an EBITDA margin of 49%, Reflecting the impact of lower gains on disposals and the higher depreciation charge on a larger fleet, operating profit was approximately $2,000,000,000 at a 28% margin and ROI was a strong 20%. Turning now to Canada on Slide seven. Rental revenue was 16% higher than a year ago at CAD $662,000,000 or USD $478,000,000.

Speaker 2

The major part of our Canadian business excluding the film and TV business is performing well with rental revenue up 12% driven by volume and rate improvement as it takes advantage of its increasing scale and breadth of product offering. Following settlement of the strikes in North American film and TV industry, activity levels demonstrated a reasonable recovery, but remained somewhat soft, which when combined with some uncertainty related to tariffs and non resi construction is leading to a weaker outlook, which I will discuss in a few minutes. Overall, the segment contributed an EBITDA margin of 45% and an operating profit of CAD139 million and CAD101 million at a 19% margin, while ROI is 12%. Turning now to Slide eight. UK rental revenue was 4% higher than a year ago at £461,000,000 or $589,000,000 In line with the four point zero strategy, the focus in The UK remains on delivering operational efficiency and long term sustainable returns in the business.

Speaker 2

While we continue to make progress on rental rates, these need to progress farther and will in the future. As a result, The UK business delivered an EBITDA margin of 29% and generated an operating profit of GBP 44,000,000 or $56,000,000 at an 8% margin and ROI was 7%. Across all three segments, our results have shown the resilience of our business model and our disciplined execution despite challenging market conditions. Slide nine sets out the group's cash flows for the nine months in the last twelve months. This emphasizes the strong cash generation capability of the business across the wide range of market conditions.

Speaker 2

We maintain a strong focus on working capital management, particularly the collection of receivables, which has resulted in cash flow from operations of $3,700,000,000 in in the nine months. As many are aware, two of the key attributes of our business model is both the resilience across the range of market conditions, which I've mentioned previously, as well as the agility with which we can control capital spending, reallocating capital dynamically to maximize value for the enterprise. In this environment where demand is lower and we have some latent capacity, we spent $2,400,000,000 compared with $3,800,000,000 last year. We adjusted our priorities to principally fund fleet replacement as well as some pockets of growth. This strategy generated free cash flow for the nine months of $858,000,000 and $1,500,000,000 over the last twelve months, despite some of the transitory softness that we have discussed.

Speaker 2

While we've reduced our capital expenditure this year, this has not been at the expense of the future. We've executed on our fleet disposal plan as intended. We have isolated areas of the business with lower demand and we've dynamically reallocated our spending to growth markets such as power and HVAC, our specialty businesses more broadly as well as mega projects where the demand is higher. We're also using our improved logistics and telematics systems to proactively reposition existing fleet to higher growth markets. One example of this is utilizing latent capacity in our network to fund more than 60% of the equipment required in our Greenfield locations.

Speaker 2

This is how we can continue to grow even when our absolute spending in capital dollars is lower. Slide 10 updates our debt and leverage position at the January. The decrease in debt in the period relates to a reduction in external borrowings partially offset by an increase in lease liabilities. In addition to the capital expenditure, we returned $387,000,000 to shareholders through our dividend and $88,000,000 through share buybacks at an average price of just over £51 per share. As a result, excluding lease liabilities, leverage was 1.7 times net debt to EBITDA well within our stated range of between one and two times and we expect to be in the 1.5 to 1.6 range at the April.

Speaker 2

This includes the impact from the share buyback program, but does not include any potential impact of M and A activity. On the M and A front, we have a robust pipeline, which we continue to develop and will pursue opportunistically expectations. On Slide 11, we show the structure of our debt. We've said previously that a strong balance sheet gives us a competitive advantage and positions us well for the medium term. In November, we amended and extended our senior credit facility such that we now have $4,750,000,000 committed until November of twenty twenty nine.

Speaker 2

Pricing has been adjusted down slightly and is based now on the applicable interest rate plus a margin of between 1.25% to 1.38%. Other principal terms and conditions remain unchanged. One key feature of our debt is the maturity schedule and we have no imminent maturities. The extended profile is smooth with no large individual refinancing needs. That being said, we do have a $550,000,000 maturity coming due in August of twenty twenty six.

Speaker 2

Given our extremely strong liquidity, low cost ABL and attractive rate of 1.5% on that bond, we will likely not undertake to refinance the paper until much closer to the August 2026 timeframe. As a last point on the capital structure, our debt facilities are committed for an average of six years at a weighted average cost of 5%. Now turning to Slide 12 and our guidance for revenue, capital expenditures and free cash flow for this year. At a consolidated level, results are in line with expectations that we set in December with group revenue growth unchanged within our original range of between 35%. By region, we're providing the following updates.

Speaker 2

We expect U. S. Rental revenue growth within our original range of between 24%. In Canada, we expect rental revenue growth between 913% and in The UK rental revenue growth at the low end of our original range of 3% to 6%. As a reminder, our Canada business total rental revenue represents approximately 6% of the total group revenue and the revised outlook represents approximately $35,000,000 or less than one half of 1% of our consolidated fiscal year twenty twenty four group rental revenue.

Speaker 2

From a capital expenditure standpoint, our range of $2,500,000,000 to $2,700,000,000 is unchanged as we continue to reallocate our capital dynamically and optimize our fleet size to drive utilization. Based on this guidance, we expect free cash flow for the year of at least $1,400,000,000 As we mentioned to a number of you following our first half results, we're planning to update our fiscal year twenty twenty six capital and revenue guidance when we report our fiscal year twenty twenty five results and our fiscal year twenty twenty six budgeting process is complete, which is in line with more normal practices. And with that, I'll turn the call back over to Brendan.

Speaker 1

Thanks, Alex. We'll now move on to some operational detail beginning with The U. S. On Slide 14. The U.

Speaker 1

S. Business delivered good rental only revenue growth in the nine months of 4%. Specialty performed strongly with growth of 14% in the period with General Tool up 1%. This of course includes some puts and takes as it relates to the hurricane response efforts as Alex covered. As expected, we continued to realize somewhat softer local non res construction market activity through the quarter, offset in part by the ongoing strength of the mega project landscape and the broader non construction markets.

Speaker 1

Importantly, rental rates have continued to progress year on year, doing so despite industry utilization levels still lagging highs reached in previous years. This is ongoing affirmation of the progressing structural change in the business and leveraging our internal pricing tools and disciplined rate approach. Moving on to Slide 15, we'll cover the activities and outlook for the construction end market. Consistent with our usual reporting of construction activity and forecast, the slide lays out the latest Dodge figures and starts momentum and put in place. Outlook for construction growth continues to be underpinned by mega projects and infrastructure work, which continue to gain momentum.

Speaker 1

This is a portion of the market where we enjoy outsized share and continue to be positioned extraordinarily well as

Speaker 3

more

Speaker 1

of these very large projects begin and enter planning. Our cross function sellers and solutions experts are highly engaged with these contractors, our customers and in many cases the owner or developer themselves, bringing a broad range of solutions and capabilities to bear on these not only large, but highly complex projects. At the same time, the local commercial construction space is softer than it was in recent years as the prolonged higher interest rate environment has weighed on local and regional developers. This predominantly impacts some of the small, mid and regional sized contractors, SMEs as some will refer to it, which is a powerful and important segment of our customer base. It will take some time for this segment to see meaningful uptick.

Speaker 1

However, it will rebound and when it does, I think it will quite strongly. When this inevitability happens, we're in a position of strength to benefit with customer relationships, coverage of products, services and markets and capacity, all part of our long held clustered market strategy. There are some recent positive indications, which you'll gather from the improving momentum index on the bottom of the left slide. This Dodge momentum index grew 6% in January coming from both commercial and institutional planning increases. In fact, the growth was diverse to the extent that every tracked non residential vertical experienced positive momentum in the month.

Speaker 1

This DMI measure was up 26% when compared to a year ago with the commercial segment up 37% from January of twenty twenty four and institutional up 9%. Of the projects entering planning, 33 were valued at $100,000,000 or more. Notably, six of the 33 meet our definition of mega projects. We of course define that as $400,000,000 and above internally and therefore 27 were below that level, which was a nice mix of lodging, hospitals, schools, warehouse and smaller data centers. So it's examples like this that highlight the inevitability of heightened activity to which I've covered our readiness to benefit.

Speaker 1

Moving on to Canada on Slide 16. Our business in Canada continues to deliver good results with rental revenue growth in the nine months of 16% coming from existing general tool and specialty locations as well as greenfields and bolt ons. And as is the case in The U. S, rental rates continued to progress in the nine months, which we expect to continue to be the case moving forward. Alex has touched on the more current trends.

Speaker 1

Despite this, our focus in Canada is clear and the actions embedded in the Ford Auto Plan are to continue to increase our addressable markets beyond construction as we've done so well over the years in The U. S. Our runway for growth improved density, market diversification and margin improvement remains. Turning to The UK on Slide 17. The UK delivered rental revenue growth of 4% driven by market share gains in an end market, which continues to favor our unique positioning through the industry's broadest offering of general tool and specialty products, which is unmatched.

Speaker 1

The Sunbelt Ford Auto plan for The UK will lead to an ever more diverse customer base and increased TAM, while bringing greater focus and discipline on the necessary levers and actions to deliver acceptable and sustainable levels of ROI and free cash flow. This business has transformed in recent years and as I've said previously, Sunbelt four point zero is designed to add the final piece to this transformation. Turning now to the summary on Slide 18. Our performance has been strong and we are very well positioned in overall healthy end markets. Trading is in line with our December guidance and we've reaffirmed our full year expectations for the group.

Speaker 1

Our roadmap is clear and the organization is laser focused on four point zero execution. We're making good initial progress with our plans to move our primary listing to The U. S. And finally, I'll highlight a few key takeaways from today's update. The strength and optionality of our business model.

Speaker 1

Clear demonstration of the outputs of structural progression in our business and our disciplined approach to profitable growth. These factors combined with our strong margins and cash flow through the cycle provides us a great amount of flexibility and capacity and allocation of capital in line with our clear and well understood priorities. Our outlook is positive and our confidence in executing and delivering our Sunbelt 4 Point 0 plan is high. And as such, we look to the future with confidence. And with that, operator, we're happy to open the call for Q and A.

Operator

Thank you. And up first, we have Losh Mahendra Racha from JPMorgan. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Speaker 4

Hi. Good morning, guys. I hope you're well. I've got three questions, if that's okay. And I can take them, say, one at a time, if that helps.

Speaker 4

The first is just looking at Slide 14 and that fleet on rent chart and sort of the green line for 2425 pulling away from 2324 in February. I guess, can you just give us color what's happening there? What was February trading like? And I guess, was there any benefit from sort of the fires in California and in there as well?

Speaker 1

Go ahead and fire away, Lush. Give us all three.

Speaker 4

Okay. Just the second is on CapEx. Just looking at the guide versus sort of what you've done year to date, does that imply there's not really any or sort of minimal rental CapEx be done in Q4? Just checking my math there. And then as we go into next year, how should we think about that?

Speaker 4

Is it just sort of replacement, I guess, and sort of very limited growth? Because I presume you've got some time you sort of grow into. And then, thirdly, was just on margins and drop through, obviously, sort of another strong sort of drop through in Q3, although I appreciate some small numbers, I guess, how should we think about drop through going forward through sort of Sunbelt 4?

Speaker 1

Great. Thanks, Lois. I'll start with your first and Alex may add some color to it. I mean, first things first, it's better that the lines above rather than below. So there's some positive indication there in terms of momentum.

Speaker 1

Obviously, when you look at how that translated into rental revenue, there's a bit of mix influencing that. I would be careful here not to get too carried away, let a few months equal a trend rather than a month, but nonetheless, I

Speaker 2

think it's showing some of the benefit there. And as it relates to CapEx and margin drop through, I'll turn over to Alex. Sure. So on your CapEx question, I think you're largely right. As we think about what happened in Q4, the balance of the year, it's largely focused on replacement versus where we were at the earlier part of the year.

Speaker 2

But that being said, I think it's really important to focus on the point I made in the prepared remarks about how we're dynamically reallocating capital from areas where we're experiencing lower growth, particularly in the general tool business and kind of the local resident non residential construction and reallocating that to areas where we're experiencing higher growth, power and HVAC being a very good example. And I think you should really expect that as you look out to next year. Obviously, we're not at a point where we're providing CapEx guidance at this point, but it's reasonable to expect as Brendan's mentioned in all of his remarks that the small medium enterprise and the local non resi construction market will continue to be soft at least for the first half of the year, which means in that portion of the business we'll focus largely on replacement, but that's not going to come at the expense of opening greenfields, repositioning capital that's latent currently in the network to source those greenfields and then funding pockets of growth like power and HVAC. You did ask a small question around hurricanes and the fire impact and I would just say that that's fairly de minimis as it relates to our overall capital expenditure plan.

Speaker 2

And then your last question was on margins and I just think it's really a tribute to the team and the cost discipline that we've demonstrated. The market conditions have been turbulent. We can't control that, but what we can control is our cost and rate discipline and driving utilization and that's reflective of in the 71% drop through. If you were to look historically, that's incrementally probably 300 to 400 basis points better than it has been at prior periods this year and as much as 10 to 13 percentage points better than it has been in prior years. So that just shows the continued margin progression of the business as we get into Sunbelt four point zero.

Speaker 2

So hopefully I hit on the majority of your questions. Brendan, anything I missed?

Speaker 1

No, I think it's great. Lars, thank you.

Speaker 4

I'm sorry, can I just sort of check just in that February number there isn't I know you said it in relation to CapEx, but is there any impact from hurricanes or the California fires in the February number?

Speaker 2

In February, there would be no hurricane impact. And as I said, we do have some power and fencing equipment in response to the fire efforts, but it's fairly de minimis.

Speaker 4

Okay, brilliant. Thank you very much guys. Thanks a lot.

Operator

Thank you. And we're moving on to a question from Rob Bertheimer from Melius Research. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Speaker 5

Hi. The comment you made on just being able to sort of fill the greenfield sites with some of the fleet you have in excess was interesting. I know this is a little bit of an unfair question, but do you have room to continue that for a while? And then more just thinking about growth in an industry where the smaller end has slowed, I'm not sure how you think tactically about greenfield versus acquisition growth, if that's even possible. I wonder if it's likely that we see a shift towards acquisition as some of your smaller competitors have slowed down?

Speaker 5

Thank you.

Speaker 1

Yes. Thanks, Rob. We do think as we continue to fuel these greenfields, is two ways. One is some of the latent capacity Alex mentioned just in the marketplace where we open these new locations. And if you really think about it, it points to obviously when we do add a greenfield, those are market share gains.

Speaker 1

And as I mentioned, of the 400 locations over the course of 03/2000, which was between greenfields and bolt ons, look at the strength and the growth 30% year on year and also progressing the margins as I had said. But the other way that we will fuel greenfields prospectively during this sort of environment is with what our replacement CapEx plans will be next year. So we'll do that very last minute test. If we have telehandlers to replace in a metropolitan area where we're also opening a greenfield and on one in one portion of the town or for that matter another town or another metro area altogether, We can divert that replacement CapEx where we find that there isn't the need in the Q2 or Q3 it may be and also use that to fuel the greenfield openings. Your questions are really good when it comes to greenfield v bolt on in a market environment like this.

Speaker 1

Obviously, we have been quite disciplined as you know when it comes to bolt ons and holding our line from a what we're valuing these at, which takes a bit of time. I do think you're going to see that turn in the quarters to come and you're going to see more of our bolt on engine revving up. The environment is interesting right now in terms of who there are buyers out there for some of these businesses and we like our positioning with that. But we wouldn't completely put the greenfield program on ice as we always do. We'll assess where we want to be geographically, which we have that roadmap for throughout 4 and we'll look to see what sort of independence could be there to replace that greenfield.

Speaker 1

But certainly that alleviates to some degree some pressure when it comes to the amount of fleet overall that's put into a market. Hope that answers

Speaker 2

your question. That's very

Speaker 1

helpful, Rob.

Speaker 2

Maybe just one other point that I'd make Rob, just to help with the quantum of the greenfield and the bolt ons. Brendan mentioned the four zero one locations growing 30%, which obviously is a great metric. The other great metric is the total rental revenue contribution from that is $1,150,000,000 So it's a meaningful contribution to the overall growth story. Got it. Thanks.

Operator

Thank you. And from Goldman Sachs, we now have Suhasini Varanasi with our next question. Please go ahead. Hi, good morning. Thank you for taking my questions.

Operator

I have three, please. The first one is on The U. S. Organic rental revenue growth feels like it slowed a little bit in this quarter, especially when adjusting for the hurricane activity. Can you maybe discuss what changed Q on Q, whether it

Speaker 3

was local commercial construction or whether it's mega projects?

Operator

And can you also share latest trends in February? And the second one is on tariffs, please. Do you see the risk of tariffs affecting cost of construction and therefore the ability of projects to start and finish on time on budget in The U. S? And the third one is, can you maybe on larger M and A transactions in the space?

Operator

Can you just remind us your thoughts on doing larger deals versus smaller bolt ons? Thank you.

Speaker 1

Sure. When it comes to the quarter, I mean, you're right. Clearly, we can see what between Q2 and Q3. There was one part of that, of course, being a heavier, as Alex had mentioned, hurricane impact in the quarter. But I think really when it comes to end markets it is what we saw in December.

Speaker 1

So no real change there in terms of that local piece. But I want to expand on that a bit. When you think about our business and our business model as it relates to a very or a highly diversified end market, we do lean as an organization compared to some others out there more heavily on that SME overall end market. And we do that unapologetically. In other words, we like that mix through the cycle.

Speaker 1

I've said it quite clearly that market will rebound and when it does, we are poised remarkably well to take advantage of that. And that is really the heartbeat of America in so many ways that SME network which we are positioned in order to progress. One of

Speaker 2

the questions was on February trading overall, Alex? Yes, sure. So maybe just before I answer that question directly, I really do think as Brendan points to frequently, you have to look at the individual sub segments of our business when you talk about the overall growth story. So even though GT is a little bit soft because of the non resi construction that we're talking about, mega projects activity continues to be incredibly strong and the specialty business is still growing in double digit percent. So it just underscores the power of the diversified model that we're building here.

Speaker 2

February trading, I would say is in line, right. So we're sort of flattish year over year, which is in line with our expectations and we have every confidence that we're going to deliver on the guidance that I reiterated at the end of the call. You did have a question before I turn it back over to Brendan on the larger scale M and A. On tariffs, the impact on construction and kind of on our business, We've actually done some analytics and I would say the anticipated impact on our business is relatively small, call it $25,000,000 30 million dollars in EBITDA and it's really concentrated in two primary areas. The first is the small piece of equipment that we're the importer of record from some of the tariff impacted countries.

Speaker 2

And then the component parts that our suppliers are bringing in that represents about 5% to 10% of our total spend. So in terms of our underlying economics, I would say we're really sort of not heavily exposed. In terms of others, our competitors, our anticipation is that there will be more heavily exposed tariff impact because of their sourcing strategies for their capital. And I don't really have a strong point of view yet on how that will impact local construction. If you're a bull, I think you could say it's incrementally positive because it will drive increased reshoring or on shoring of domestic manufacturing, that's certainly one intention to ramp up our domestic manufacturing.

Speaker 2

And it will increase the focus on a Build America manufacturing base. But I think it's really too early to say for sure and maybe I'll turn it over to Brendan to talk philosophically about larger scale M and A versus some of the bolt on strategy we've had.

Speaker 1

Yes, I mean it's been an interesting period, hasn't it been when it comes to M and A activity in the industry. I would say a couple of things. One, none of what has happened, whether it be on the smaller bolt on end or the larger M and A, were businesses that we wanted or fit more importantly our overall strategy. Not criticizing any of the deals that have happened at all. I think they're all perfectly fine for the buyers and the sellers.

Speaker 1

As you know, we've said consistently, we like our lean from a greenfield and augmenting and adding to that by way of bolt on M and A. And from a larger scale standpoint, particularly those with significant overlap, just isn't what our strategy is built on. Certainly from a specialty standpoint, we've said very clearly that if we can significantly add to one of our specialty business lines or add something that isn't in our overall makeup, that's something that we would certainly consider. But I think it's quite clear in terms of Ford Auto what our strategy is and none of these news are changing that strategy whatsoever.

Operator

Thank you. That's very clear. Just one quick follow-up. Just to clarify, when you mentioned February trading was flattish year over year, was that the organic rental number that you were talking about in The U. S?

Speaker 2

I'm sorry, that's all we're getting. Yes, that would all be organic.

Speaker 1

All Alex is saying there is rental revenue in The U. S. Is all we would ever quote at this stage considering the ink is drying now is flat rental revenue on a billings per day basis in The U. S.

Operator

Thank you. Cheers. Thank you. And up next we have Katie Fleiter from KeyBanc Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Operator

Your line is open.

Speaker 6

Hey, good morning, guys. I know that visibility is still relatively limited, but just curious what your thoughts on our where we are in the rental cycle and what you're looking for to really give you that confidence that a demand inflection is coming within those local accounts?

Speaker 1

Good morning, Casey. I think when you look at it, there are a few things to consider where we are in the rental cycle. Of course, we will in June in line with alongside of our full year results as Alex has mentioned give guidance in terms of revenue and CapEx. And that second piece is very important when it comes to CapEx. And what we've seen in the industry has been a very disciplined CapEx approach.

Speaker 1

And that's a key ingredient as we're navigating this transitory state from a local end market. What we're seeing in local end markets as I would have indicated in my opening remarks, As I mentioned, projects entering planning. So planning is not to be confused with starting. All projects that enter planning won't necessarily progress to start. The vast majority will.

Speaker 1

And what that shows is demand. And the reason why I highlighted those 33 projects in January that were over $100,000,000 was how many of them, 27 to be exact, were below that mega project level. And that's precisely what we're talking about when it comes to local ordinary run of the mill non res construction. So that is one of the breadcrumbs that gives us the overall confidence. And furthermore, just this sort of lag that we've seen and people really have to get their minds around the real engine behind that local non res construction and it is these local regional developers.

Speaker 1

It's not the contractors themselves who are deciding should I build or not build, they're all eager and ready to do so. It's just a matter of those developers sensing some level of stability from an interest rate environment. So as Alex has said, in no way, shape or form are we calling when we think we will see that as time progresses, we will. The key to understanding is where we are and where the industry is positioned, which is healthy. We're in a position to be able to early on as that inevitability happens, take advantage of those opportunities with our existing latent capacity.

Speaker 1

And therefore, from a CapEx standpoint, the important discipline to measure there, you don't start to invest that growth CapEx until such a time when you see actually that market turning. So I think overall, look, we are in a great position. The industry structurally is in such a good position in order to navigate little patches like this. And as I've said, certainly we lean in that SME space, but let's not forget how well we're doing as we continue to take more share. I mentioned those top customers and that's a mix of of course mega project wins, but also just great contract wins and taking more share of wallet with these larger customers as we are so well positioned to do.

Speaker 6

Okay. Thanks. That's helpful. And then just another kind of broader macro question. Is there any concern around labor within the rental market given this new administration in the if labor is a bit more difficult to get on some of these projects, do you think there's a risk to maybe the local accounts in particular?

Speaker 1

Well, when it comes to skilled trade, right, we've talked about this for so many years now. One of the great market dynamics that and I say great meaning significant market dynamics we've gone through now for several years, most notably post COVID is just skilled trade scarcity. Skilled trade scarcity is a tailwind to structural progression and more specifically deepening rental penetration. Overall, these contractors, I mean, is labor a risk to the total volume of construction? Are tariffs a risk to the cost of construction and therefore delaying things?

Speaker 1

All of those things can be possibilities. However, projects will progress just like we've seen in the mega environment and we will see again when it comes to resi, when it comes to non resi, they will make do. But the key to it really is when it comes to rental and how rental is positioned overall for that, We're a great aid in that environment, whereas in the end, you'll end up having a bit more equipment than you otherwise would have had with a bit less labor. And then furthermore, you'll have an even faster trend to rental away from ownership.

Speaker 6

Okay. Thanks. I'll pass it on.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Casey.

Operator

Thank you. And our next question now comes from Annalise Vermoylen from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Speaker 7

Hi, good morning, Ben and good morning, Alex. Just I wanted to sort of revisit your Sunbelt 4 Point 0 plan. I appreciate there are different components to the plan, but thinking specifically about your rental revenue growth, the CAGR of I think 6% to 9% for clearly growth is below that this year if we assume those softer end markets continue into the first half. I'm just wondering how much risk there is to that if you look over the total five year plan. Rates, I think, have stayed higher for longer than perhaps we anticipated when you set out that plan almost a year ago and that softer local construction market piece as well.

Speaker 7

So just wondering how you're thinking about that and how confident you are in growth in years three, four, five of the plan accelerating to compensate for a slower start, shall we say? And then just two quick ones. You mentioned in the opening remarks that rates continue to progress. So just to clarify, you're still seeing positive year on year rate growth in the last quarter. And then lastly, on The U.

Speaker 7

S. Listing timeframe, last year when we spoke, there was a plan to move to U. S. GAAP accounting. Just an update on the timing of that, please.

Speaker 7

Thank you.

Speaker 2

Let me kick it off and then I'm going to actually turn it over to Brendan, then I'll wrap up with maybe some commentary on the listing timeframe. But just as it relates to your question on four point zero, look, we're six months into a five year plan. There we're certainly not going to back off our targets that we set. And there's no reason to indicate that the market is not going to continue to progress exactly in line with what we communicated. We're in a transitory period as we've talked about.

Speaker 2

So it's a little bit of a soft start, but in no way does that change our aspiration or expectation for the future. And I'll let Brendan give a little bit more specifics and then I can wrap up the progress of the listing.

Speaker 1

Precisely right Annalise, on rates, yes, we've continued to see positive year on year movement there. We are very focused on that being a really key contributor to our growth over the years as we've so clearly laid out in Sunbelt Ford Auto. Let's not overlook the importance there when it comes to the CapEx piece that we've talked about before. And hence what you're seeing in the marketplace is great discipline surrounding that as you will see with us as we get forward to June and we talk about our overall levels of CapEx. So that keeps us in a really good position and enables us to continue to progress rates.

Speaker 1

And our focus frankly is internally utilizing our tools, utilizing our dynamic pricing systems that we have, recognizing that throughout all of the deciles of our customer base, we have opportunities. And not least of which, a bit of an inflationary environment doesn't hurt that either. That actually adds a bit of momentum. And I think that that's what you'll be hearing across the board. Just like you would have followed back in 2021, '20 '20 '2, '20 '20 '3 when there was such inflation particularly around construction materials, which I think is an important one also for the audience here to contemplate when it comes to these tariffs.

Speaker 1

Construction has been through so many periods of significant inflation and construction just figures out how to deal with all that. But all those are key features when it comes to our ability to continue to progress rate, both discipline, levels of fleet and this sort of inflationary environment. And finally on U. S. Listing?

Speaker 1

Yes. The U. S. Listing, there's really not too much of

Speaker 2

an update other than what we talked about in the prepared remarks, which is that we anticipate being ready to ring the bell on the New York Stock Exchange in the first part of next year. So basically about twelve months from now. There are a number of process steps, which we can take you through probably off the call. One of which is the conversion from IFRS to U. S.

Speaker 2

GAAP. There's a regulatory a couple of regulatory filings that we need to do. Really the next milestone to focus on as Brendan mentioned in his prepared remarks is the EGM, which is scheduled in June where we'll seek formal shareholder approval. And we'll keep you posted how the progress goes, but no change in our expected timeline at this point.

Speaker 7

Thank you, both.

Speaker 2

Thanks, David. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. And from UBS, we now have Rory McKenzie with our next question. Please go ahead.

Speaker 8

Hello. It's Rory here. Two questions, please. Firstly, good to hear rental rates are still progressing because some of the external data stressed it looks quite flattish. And are there any regional differences within that rates picture?

Speaker 8

And anything you could say about current tenders, which are going out there into the market on rate? And then secondly, in terms of CapEx plans, have you still done the first round of budget forecasting internally at this point? I guess, it's not giving the first look CapEx guidance anymore just a change in external communication? Or are you also changing your internal processes given some of the volatility you've seen over the past couple of years?

Speaker 1

Thanks Rory. I'll take the first and turn the second over to Alex. Rates really there is not much change throughout our regions, throughout our specialty business lines. And the key to that really is when you think back to what I mentioned just a minute ago around our internal dynamic pricing systems. So those systems are driving the results and driving the goalpost, so to speak, that our sellers can work within.

Speaker 1

And when it comes to tenders that are going on, which there are lots today, specifically around these mega projects, which of course are heftier than the average quote that happens on a Thursday afternoon for a Friday morning rental transaction. And embedded in all of those and then of course discussed with our customers are rate increases and those rate increases with those customers from sort of project to project, which frankly when you talk to them about, they understand. And furthermore, what they really care about, they care about that mantra you've heard us talk about over and over, availability, reliability and ease. These customers recognize so much that uptime and the right product for the application and the right team that's actually engaged in these projects. That's the difference maker when it comes to them successfully completing their project on budget and successfully completing their project on time.

Speaker 1

So frankly, as you go through those conversations, it's not the hurdle perhaps you may think it is. Of course, rate is a consideration. However, contract after contract, renewal after renewal, we continue to see rates progress. And Roy, I'll take the CapEx question.

Speaker 2

I appreciate you asking it. A couple of things, a couple of comments. First, we are in the middle of budget planning, which is in line with the way we've planned the budget since well before my tenure. So there's literally no change given the market conditions that we've talked about. The only change is that it makes sense to talk about our capital spending when we're talking about our holistic set of expectations for the next fiscal year.

Speaker 2

And so we've just aligned that accordingly. And that's kind of maybe a specific answer to your question. I would say there's a bit of a nuance that and I got at it in my prepared remarks that capital allocation and capital planning is a highly dynamic process. This isn't something that we snap a chalk line on at the end of the fiscal year and it's locked in stone for the next fiscal year. We're constantly evaluating our utilization rates, where the growth is happening, repositioning our capital, what our needs are.

Speaker 2

So that's going on in real time with the fleet team, literally every day they're waking up and working with the line leadership to figure out how to meet our needs and continue to grow the business. So really you should take great confidence in the fact that we're allocating our capital dynamically to unlock the growth pockets and manage utilization where we can.

Speaker 1

I would just add to that Rory, if you really think about it, it just us giving CapEx guidance as we've done over the years and there made once upon a time, there may have been some sense behind giving that CapEx so early, but there's just no point in us doing that going forward. So this is far more in line with what anyone else out there would do, not just in our industry, but in any sort of reasonably capital intensive business. You give that guidance early on in your new fiscal year and in line with or at the same time as you're giving your initial revenue guidance.

Speaker 8

Thank you. It makes sense. I guess I'm just a creature of habits. I'm not missing that first look, but it makes sense.

Speaker 9

Thank you.

Speaker 1

No, I understand, Rory. Very good. Thanks for the questions.

Operator

And we're moving on to a question from Neil Tyler from Redburn Atlantic. Please go ahead.

Speaker 10

Yes, good morning. Thank you. Good morning, Brendan and Alex. Following on from that previous question, I guess, in terms of capital allocation, can you frame for us either in terms of dollar or time, your thoughts on where you are currently running relative to where is realistic to get to? I'm thinking, obviously, there's been some quite significant fluctuations over the last few years.

Speaker 10

But one of the lessons you learned, I suppose, through the tighter period of 2021 to in terms of how to run the fleet more efficiently. So at what point in maybe dollar yield terms should we start thinking about the fleet needing to keep pace with revenue in a sort of in basis point terms sort of where we are. And then the second question I had, in the context of the larger scale M and A that's going on, how are you are your branches sort of located positioned to be able to take advantage from from any revenue dissynergy that might occur in the HERC H and E transaction? Thank you.

Speaker 1

Yes. Thanks, Neil. First of all, when it comes to your question around utilization, I think there are a couple of things that consider one, we don't quote time utilization nor will we. We demonstrate or we've mentioned that we have some latent capacity and that comes from a few things. You pointed out the lessons learned as we went through and the entire industry went through such a prolonged period of supply constraints coupled with a highly active and demanding high demand end market.

Speaker 1

And therefore, we realized new highs. And one could set those aside and say that they were quite exceptional or anomalous given the extraordinary conditions that we face. But at the same time, we achieved that and we delivered that. It was probably a bit too high when it comes to really just think of units in the yard or availability to say yes. So you probably want to just be a bit lower than that.

Speaker 1

But furthermore, our overall density, how we've advanced our clusters over the years and how our specialty businesses have grown so much, whereas we have the ability to actually run at higher time utilization levels. So as we're going through this budget process and the business lines are looking through where we are from a utilization standpoint at a class level, at a total business line, etcetera. We know that there is opportunity to continue to advance that and that's what we'll do over the years as you get larger. It's just the law of large numbers. What you really need to pay attention to will be when we actually are in a year where we have a CapEx guidance early on and then all of a sudden we're halfway through the year and we dial up that CapEx guidance.

Speaker 1

That'll be the signal that says we see utilization levels remarkably strong and opportunities in the end markets where we are positioned to seize that. To your second question around the HERC and H and E deal, we're not going to quote anything in terms of proximity analysis, etcetera. You would just expect our business and our people out there to know what's happening there. But all we're doing is plain and simple. As we always do, positioning ourselves, obsessed with our customer success and being there for any needs that they may have, but these are professional organizations integrating these businesses and they'll do just fine as we will when we continue to focus on our customers.

Speaker 11

Very clear.

Speaker 10

Thank you very much.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Neil.

Operator

Thank you. And we're moving on to a question from Alan Watts from Jefferies. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Speaker 12

Hi, gentlemen. A couple from me, please. If I just maybe look at the Genren business and that minus 2% you posted in Q3, could you maybe provide a little bit of comment specifically about GenRent and the pricing versus kind of volume discussions there? I mean, assuming the general comments you made about pricing being positive, I guess, it implies GenRent maybe down minus 3% to 5% and that feels a little bit weaker than some of at least the listed peers that we see more regularly. So maybe can you talk a little bit about what's driving the underperformance?

Speaker 12

I kind of hear your comments on SME focus and that feels very relevant to maybe a URI, but maybe less so than some of the other larger rental names that would maybe be still heavily focused on that market. So I'm just trying to understand what's going on there. And then also maybe just mindful in the context of the 8% rental growth that you put in your market slides as well, which again if I'm looking at a big chunk of that would be GenRent if you're delivering slightly below that. So that's my first question. Thank you.

Speaker 1

Yes. Thanks, Alan. I mean, the GenRent business, I mean, you put together some of the parts. Yes, there is rate progression there in the quarter as there has been through the year, and we would expect that to continue. So of course, you add that to a bid and you have a bit less volume there as well.

Speaker 1

Careful about the listed peers and the exposure there. There. We know the environment quite well and we know the listed peers in terms of where they lean and what their legacy sort of customer composition is. And our composition is a bit more in that environment. As I've said, all part and parcel of our clustered market strategy and we're doing great when it comes to taking share in the areas that are more flushed with opportunity and work that's out there.

Speaker 1

You mentioned other rental names that are out there not seeing that. I don't think I'd have to actually disagree with you there. And those that do have a bit more concentration in areas that we're talking about are seeing things that are highly similar. On that line you're quoting, which is really the industry forecast and reporting, As we have consistently said, they're very good at looking back, not quite as good at looking forward. And I think you'll see some of those revised.

Speaker 1

I mean, if you think about who the reported peers are on an organic growth basis and on a like for like tape measure, I. E. The year ending December, I think you're seeing these being during this time, which is really in a way a hallmark of a structurally progressed industry where you see some more likeness during periods of time like this and that's exactly what we're seeing. So, but we are happy with the levels of revenue at this stage and poised as we've said throughout or consistently through the call when it comes to being prepared for the rebound. And further, as Alex has added during Q and A here, the growth of our specialty business and us taking share and continuing to do very well when it comes to mega projects at our largest customers.

Speaker 12

Great. And then second question, as you think about the you can obviously keep the 2% to 4% U. S. Rental guidance for the full year, obviously, the 3Q rental growth steps down. That was against a slightly easing comp.

Speaker 12

I think the comp looks broadly stable, maybe slightly tougher in Q4. And you've talked about a flattish February. So could you just talk about the key variables as you think about the next couple of months that will drive you either to the bottom end or the top end of that 2% to 4% guidance, I mean, as you see it today? And then just what maybe the third question I just asked is a quick one. Can you just give us an update?

Speaker 12

Is there anything that you can say on the scaffolding project that you called out last year as being a headwind that got into trouble? Is there any movement on that maybe coming back into the numbers as we move forward?

Speaker 2

So I'll take both these and I'll turn it over to Brendan for a little bit more color. On the guidance, I'll stick with what I said on the prepared remarks where within the range of the guidance that we provided at 2% to 4% in terms of what would lead you more to the North end versus the South end of that. Continued progression on the small, medium kind of non residential construction side would certainly be a tailwind that we'd welcome. That being said, I think you've heard Brendan say over and over again that we don't anticipate any kind of immediate bounce back of that. Everything else continues to advance.

Speaker 2

We obviously have a very strong pipeline of mega project activity. But given where we are two months left in the year, I think you can rest assured that we're within the range of the guidance that we provided. And I don't see a tremendous amount changing until we get into the middle part of next year. As it relates to the scoupling project, this was a large project that we were on where the contractor ran in, the EPC firm ran into some financial trouble and we had to take a large reserve. I don't want to get into too much detail prematurely just to say that that is progressing quite nicely and we expect to recover all of the accounts receivable balance that was tied up with that project.

Speaker 2

And Brendan can comment on the scaffolding business more broadly because of course, we have seen some softness in that business really related to some of the challenges that we were talking about, but Brendan can talk about the operational.

Speaker 1

Otherwise, outside of that scaffold is steady as it goes. The project of course was not exclusively scaffold. E and D was a reasonably large part of that, but that's certainly part of a year on year where we're not where we haven't built anywhere near as much into that project just given the current state of it. But as Alex has said, all of the resolutions are working out quite well and I'm sure we'll have an update on that when it comes to full year.

Speaker 12

Great. Thank you very much.

Operator

Thank you. And from RBC, we now have Carl Green with our next question. Please go ahead.

Speaker 9

Thanks very much. Good morning. Yes, let me follow-up from Alan's question on GT. I mean, if we switch gears to Specialty, again, looking at the Q3 performance specifically, you had a reasonably soft comp last year. You have the benefits this year of some of the hurricane response work.

Speaker 9

So I guess the question is ex the hurricane response work, are you seeing a bit of a slowdown in some of the MRO type work within Specialty? Or what else would explain that slightly dip in terms of the trend performance versus a good first half of the fiscal year? That's the first question. The second question, possibly I should be directing this to the Dodge guys rather than you, but it would be good to get perspective just in terms of that strong year on year performance in the DMI, which historically has been a very good lead indicator with the twelve month lag for activity on the ground. Do you think in terms of the composition of projects which are being reflected in the acceleration in the DMI that the twelve month lag actually potentially extends a bit, so it could be a little bit more of a gap before you start seeing that come through on your rental volumes and potentially CapEx budget impact as well?

Speaker 9

Thank you.

Speaker 1

Yes, I'll take the second first. That's why when we covered that real step change in DMI, making the note that it was less mega project leaning than what we've seen in previous periods. So I don't think that really would I wouldn't translate that into taking longer because what we've certainly seen in terms of projects moving right rather than pulling forward is in that mega project space. When you look at mega projects overall and you look at the planning and the starts, we're seeing more in that data center space means quite rich in data centers, but these are data centers of old. These are data centers that are $10,000,000,000 plus.

Speaker 1

And I think when you contrast that with say semiconductor or chip fabs, there's just a more seasoned and experienced progressing to start there. So these projects are better understood than of course semiconductors being built in The U. S, which of course hasn't happened in a long, long time. So I think that's actually quite positive. And then again, as I said in terms of mix, some of those smaller, I say smaller between 100,000,000 and just under $400,000,000 projects that there's when you look at what that makeup was of those 27 projects being as broad as they were ranging from lodging to hospital, etcetera, those are going to those should progress to start when they want to in more accordance with the timeline.

Speaker 1

When it comes to specialty, again, this is a business that we've said over and over and we've demonstrated has a long runway for ongoing growth, which is both structural and it's also part of the overall breadth of products and services that we can offer our customers. It doesn't mean that the line in terms of growth is always linear. We don't anticipate as we would have said with four point zero, over the course of three point zero, the specialty business effectively doubled in three years' time. And we were quite clear that we didn't expect that sort of CAGR over the course of four point zero. There will always be some tie there to sort of overall economic conditions when it comes to some aspects of that FM, etcetera.

Speaker 1

But when we look at some of our wins in terms of the component parts of our business that will service those, we see those as being very broad. There's nice mix of FM, there's nice mix of MRO from an industrial standpoint that of course will absorb some of our specialty products. But overall, we will see when it comes to going through the budget process in terms of what the specialty business is shaping up as, but we'd expect that to be a business that grows more so than the general tool business in the period to come.

Speaker 5

And let me just clarify

Speaker 2

a couple of things. I'm not entirely sure I agree with your comment on a weak comp. So if you look at first half of twenty twenty four year over year, we grew 16%. First half of this year, we grew 15%. So completely in line from a year over year standpoint.

Speaker 2

There's some normal seasonality. So if you look sequentially from Q2 to Q3 of last year, you see a slight step down about $56,000,000 step down from Q2 to Q3 driven by normal seasonality as well as some of the issues that we talked about earlier. And then you are growing as we mentioned strong double digit growth in Q3 of this year against that comp, but in line with the normal seasonality pattern and some of that decline is going to be weather related. So I wouldn't I'm not sure your point on lapping a weak comp is necessarily something to focus on.

Speaker 9

Okay. Thanks.

Speaker 1

Thanks, Carl.

Operator

Thank you. And our next question now comes from Karl Rainsforth from Berenberg. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Speaker 3

Hi. Just one quick one left for me, please. On the Canada guidance downgrade, I just wanted to understand if there are any particular accounts that are slow to cause you to downgrade growth there or is it a broader softness of demand? So do you expect that softness to be temporary or structurally lower spend from film and TV studios and streaming platforms going forward? Thank you.

Speaker 2

Yes. So first of all, I want to put the Canada guidance in the context. If you take the step down, as I mentioned in my prepared remarks, it represents about $35,000,000 of revenue, which is less than one half of 1%. So really, we shouldn't spend a whole lot of time talking about it. But your question is a valid one.

Speaker 2

And I think the way I would think about it is bifurcate the business from the core Canada business, which grew, I think I've mentioned in my remarks about 12%. And so that business is continuing to demonstrate rate progression, structural progression, everything that we talk about as we talk about North America more broadly. And that's being offset by some softness in the film and TV business. It is recovering from the North America Screen Actors Guild strike that happened last year. So it is recovering, but there are some changes in the nature of content creation, which you'll know from your own experience as we come off COVID and there's less prolific generation of content from some of the streaming providers.

Speaker 2

So that is a little bit of a headwind, but relative to the core business, it's small and the core business is certainly performing very, very well.

Speaker 1

Yes, the revision is proportionally weighted, overweighted to film and TV.

Speaker 3

Yes, very helpful. Thank you.

Speaker 1

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. And from Barclays, we now have James Rose with our next question. Please go ahead.

Speaker 12

Hi there. I've got one more on

Speaker 13

the cost side of things. So in The U. S, I think EBITDA ex equipment gains has been growing ahead of rental revenue all fiscal year.

Speaker 12

Have you managed to achieve that? Can you carry on doing that going into Q4 and maybe the first half of twenty twenty six? And what is the cost inflation profile you are experiencing right now?

Speaker 1

Yes. James, thanks for the question. This is core to our actual component number three, which is performance. And if you think about the what we put out there in terms of our playbook to progress that three to five points over the course of our five year plan, Sunbelt four point zero, there were three. Number one, leveraging SG and A.

Speaker 1

We invested in the SG and A of our organization during our explosive growth of three point zero and over time SG and A will be a lesser percent of our revenue, therefore driving margin progression. The second one was the progression of the four zero one locations that we opened or added over three point zero. And of course, we've talked about that in terms of not just revenue growth, but also margin progression as those businesses begin to look more like our legacy locations. And then finally is really putting in place not just from a technology standpoint, but also extracting the value of our density gains over the course of our growth or over three point zero and therefore further improving our margin. So what we're seeing as Alex would have covered in his prepared remarks is the discipline in the organization recognizing what's going on from a end market standpoint.

Speaker 1

I mean, if you think about it from a overall headcount standpoint, which of course is in the press release, there's really three buckets there. One, of course, is going to be the E and D year on year, which is roughly a third of that delta. The second is going to be our efforts around G and A. As some of these projects take for instance in technology are fully implemented, you don't need the level of developers that you had before. And this is these are developers who would have come on board recognizing that it's a couple of year plan and then they go on to find their next.

Speaker 1

And then the third bucket is going to be really just extracting the benefits as we put in place our market logistics operations, our market field dispatch operations, whereas we can leverage really the resources that we have and do it in a more efficient manner.

Speaker 4

Okay. Thanks very much.

Speaker 2

Thanks James.

Operator

Thank you. And up next we have Tom Burton from BNP Paribas. Please go ahead.

Speaker 11

Thanks. Yes. Hi, guys. And sorry, I was cut off, so apologies if I might need to repeat anything else. A few from me.

Speaker 11

First one is just trying to figure out the kind of true underlying rental revenue performance in Q3 if I strip out the hurricanes? Because I think you said at the Q2, I think it was a comment in which $55,000,000 to $60,000,000 and you now said $90,000,000 to $100,000,000 for the first nine months. So call it the $30,000,000 then in Q3, it sounds like it was about a 2% tailwinds to rent revenue in the quarter.

Speaker 2

Your math is right. It was 60% in the second quarter, '40 percent in the third quarter.

Speaker 11

Okay, perfect. So acting that out, I guess rental only revenue down 1% in Q3. The second one is trying to, I guess reconcile that with the earlier question, Slide 14, those sort of lines for fleets on rent. If fleets on rent was up in February and the exit rate was sort of flattish, Help me understand kind of how that was possible with rental rate sort of flattish. I'm just trying to make sense of that and sort of appreciate you don't want me to granular about the most recent rental rate, but just trying to get a flavor for what's going on there.

Speaker 11

And then the last one is around mega projects and it's been discussed a few times, but just thinking in an industry where I guess overall replenishment of activity and utilization is under pressure and mega is kind of the one area of growth. Just thinking what you're seeing in terms of incremental kind of competitiveness pricing and mega projects and specifically with the tie up of two of the major listed players or bigger or big listed players at least in the industry. I just wonder what that means from a competitiveness of maybe a larger more relevant actor now in the megaproject arena? Thank you.

Speaker 2

So maybe I'll kick it off and then turn it over to Brendan for some of the more strategic stuff. On the Slide 14, as Brendan mentioned, look, this is a positive trend. You're seeing sort of deviation or space between last year's trend and this year's trend is a positive thing. You can't it's difficult to translate that specifically to the underlying total rental revenue growth because there's mix impact as it relates to the financials versus that trend line. But the way I would look at the Slide 14 is incrementally positive in terms of the momentum in the industry.

Speaker 2

And one of the big questions that has come up on a number of calls is, where are we relative to the overall cycle. And I think that's a positive data point to suggest that we're sort of emerging out of the softer period that we've been in. So that was one of your questions. And then your second question was around mega project trends and rates. Is that right?

Speaker 11

Yes, that's correct. The sort of pricing, competitiveness on mega projects more generally and then the specific one sort of regarding H and E and HAC.

Speaker 1

Yes, look, first of all, mega projects, it is a area of good opportunity and great growth. It's not the only. We see many other areas of opportunity, our specialty business, our greenfields, all the things that we've talked about throughout the call today. What do you see there for these mega projects as I would have said earlier, it may have been when you were off the line, the customers that we're engaged with or the customers that our counterparts are engaged with, what they're looking for is a successful rental operation, a successful safety operation, a successful provider who is successful in providing a very, very broad range of products and services to these projects in order for them to successfully deliver on what their job is. So although pricing is part of that, let's not confuse things by saying pricing is first and foremost in this.

Speaker 1

As we said earlier on the call, from contract win to contract win, we can progress rates on these projects. And look, first of all, there's no transaction that's even done yet. So let's get past the actual closing and then get through the integration etcetera. There are few in the industry, whether it's before or after the closing of that acquisition, who are capable of delivering what these project demands are, which are quite rigorous. So our positioning remains significantly robust and we will continue to take outsized share in this mega project landscape.

Speaker 11

Very clear. Thank you.

Speaker 1

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. And as there are currently no further questions in the queue, I'd like to hand the call back over to you, Mr. Horgan and Mr. Peace for any additional or closing remarks.

Speaker 1

Great. Thank you, operator, and thank you all for dialing in this morning and afternoon and for your engagement. We'll look forward to updating all of you in June with our full year results. Have a great day.

Operator

Thank you for joining today's call. Ladies and gentlemen, you may now disconnect.

Remove Ads
Powered by Quartr
Earnings Conference Call
Ashtead Group Q3 2025
00:00 / 00:00
Remove Ads