Dowlais Group H2 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
March 5, 2025

There are 8 speakers on the call.

Operator

Good day ladies and gentlemen and welcome to the DOLAY full year twenty twenty four results. The presentation will commence shortly. After the presentation we will conduct a Q and A session. If you wish to ask a question, you'll be able to ask a question either through the Zoom webinar link provided separately or by submitting written questions using the Ask a Question button on the SPARK Live webcast page. Please note this call is being live streamed to webcast for a wider audience and will be recorded.

Operator

I would now like to hand over to Liam Butterworth, chief executive officer, to open the presentation. Please go ahead.

Speaker 1

Good morning, and thank you for joining us today for our full year 2024 results. Firstly, I will set the context for the decisive actions we took over the last twelve months and the ongoing structural shifts shaping our industry. Roberto is then going to cover the '24 results in detail. And to finish, I will look at our divisional performance and how we're continuing to position ourselves for the future. 2024 was a year of industry challenges, but also one of significant strategic progress for DOWLACE.

Speaker 1

Despite ongoing market volatility, we delivered on our updated guidance that was communicated in mid-twenty twenty four. We remained laser focused on execution, taking decisive strategic actions to strengthen our business. Each of these actions is critical to driving long term value for our shareholders. Let me give you some examples. As guided in August, we successfully offset the impact of lower volumes on margin through a comprehensive program of commercial recoveries, performance initiatives and ongoing restructuring.

Speaker 1

And despite the lower volumes, margin increased 10 basis points in 2024. We rightsized the engineering investment in E Drive Systems with a million net benefit expected in 2025. We disposed of our hydrogen business to eliminate related cash losses and we initiated a strategic review of powder metallurgy including a potential sale. Then on the 01/29/2025, we announced the recommended combination of DALEX with American Axle. All of these actions are focused on unlocking shareholder value whilst transitioning to a powertrain agnostic business model that navigates market shifts and drives sustainable, profitable growth.

Speaker 1

Let me first provide you with some context of the structural shifts we have seen in the industry before summarizing the benefits of our most recent strategic announcement, the combination with American Axle. The automotive environment is undergoing a profound structural shift across four main themes: geopolitics, regionalization, customer landscape and technological landscape. In geopolitics, we are seeing a significant increase in protectionist policies, tariffs and trade tensions that are all reshaping supply chains for goods and raw materials globally. Having a scaled global platform is key to help navigate this and ensure ongoing business and financial resilience. Regionalization is creating fluctuating production rates and powertrain demands across geographies.

Speaker 1

For example, China's share of GLVP continues to rise, while Europe, North America, and Japan and Korea have seen declining production since 2019. Each region has varying rates of EV adoption. This is driving the necessity to have a more geographically diverse and flexible business.

Speaker 2

At the

Speaker 1

same time, the customer landscape is evolving. The number of OEMs producing over 500,000 light vehicles annually has grown by over 30%, driven by the rise of Purebev players and Chinese OEMs. And today, we serve three distinct customer groups: traditional OEMs, Purebev players, and Chinese OEMs. Each group has unique strategies, product requirements and ways of working, adding complexity to our industry. We need scale to adapt, innovate and maintain long term relevance to each type of customer as this landscape continues to evolve.

Speaker 1

And finally, technology is also changing significantly. Powertrain complexity is driving the need to have an increase in the agnostic portfolio for ICE, hybrids and BEVs. The growing number of OEMs has led to a proliferation of platforms, with new program launches expected to increase by 75% between 2017 and 2026, even as overall vehicle production is expected to decline by 4% over the same period. Navigating these complexities requires strategic foresight and ability to react and adapt, which we have done and continue to do. For example, regionalizing our supply chain and rightsizing capacity since 2019, especially in Europe maintaining a disciplined approach to investing in BEV and prioritizing a power trade agnostic portfolio and leveraging our engineering expertise in global scale, including our successful JV in China with its China for China strategy.

Speaker 1

The auto industry is going through a structural change and it's critical for suppliers to continuously adapt and transform. This brings us to our most recent strategic announcement, the combination with American Axle, which will create a more resilient global business positioned for long term success against the structural shifts I've highlighted. Let me remind you of the rationale and key benefits of the proposed transaction. First, scale and focus. This combination brings enhanced resilience and relevance to customers through scale and focus.

Speaker 1

It brings together two highly complementary businesses, creating a scaled powertrain agnostic portfolio offering a significant content per vehicle growth opportunity for ICE, hybrid, and BEV platforms. For example, in driveline, from CV joints to prop shafts and side shafts. In axle systems, combines both business expertise in e powertrain components and axle systems for ICE, hybrid, and BEV. And in metal forming, encompassing forging, machining, casting and sintering, providing deep vertical integration and access to adjacent industrial markets. Furthermore, this combination grants Dowellace access to the highly profitable and cash generative North American full size pickup truck and SUV market, which remains at the tail end of the BEV transition, offering greater stability and earnings visibility.

Speaker 1

Secondly, vertical integration. The combined business will benefit from deeper vertical integration, enhancing capacity utilization and operational efficiencies in areas such as forging, casting, and machining to support deeper integration for driveline, e powertrain components, and axle systems, and capacity in powder to strengthen American Axle's metal forming business, improving utilization rates in Powder Metallurgy. And finally, synergies and free cash flow generation. Beyond the strategic and operational fit, this combination brings substantial financial benefits. The combined group will generate free cash flow and set to lead in margins supported by $300,000,000 in identified synergies, which through our combined teams, we are highly confident of delivering the majority within the first two years.

Speaker 1

Both teams have spent a significant amount of time together pre announcement working through the synergy potential. And $300,000,000 was the announceable figure signed off on The UK takeover requirements. We believe this is a compelling opportunity for our shareholders who will receive approximately 45p in cash whilst also retaining a 49% ownership in the enlarged group. The regulatory filings and process are progressing well and we expect the transaction to close by the year end. This combination is fully aligned with our operational strategy as well as our focus on creating significant shareholder value in a dynamic automotive market.

Speaker 1

I'm now going to hand over to Roberto to present the financial results in detail before coming back to you and discussing the divisional performance and actions we are taking.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Ria, and good morning, everyone. Today, I will take you through our financial results for the full year 2024, covering revenue performance, profitability, cash flow and our capital structure. But let's start with the key financial highlights. We delivered results in line with August guidance despite the challenging environment. This was accomplished by mitigating the impact of lower volumes with rigorous cost management and commercial recoveries.

Speaker 2

Full year adjusted revenue came in just over 4,900,000,000 representing a 6.4% decline at constant currency, primarily due to lower volumes in our e POWER train product line. Adjusted operating profit was £324,000,000 down 4.2%, while margins improved by 10 basis points. Adjusted basic earnings per share was 11.4p, reflecting a 17% decline, largely due to lower earnings and higher finance costs. Free cash flow stood at million, down from million in 2023, mainly due to lower earnings, higher interest and restructuring outflows. The net debt increased to GBP $968,000,000 resulting in a leverage ratio of 1.7 times EBITDA compared to 1.4 times at year end 2023.

Speaker 2

Shifting to revenue, the year on year decline was primarily driven by automotive, which was down 7.2% as e POWER train revenue declined 18% due to ongoing volatility in BEV production schedules. Drivine remained resilient with revenue down 3.2%, slightly outperforming the market outside China. Powder metallurgy saw a 2.7% decline with softer demand in North America, although this was partially offset by growth in China. Foreign exchange was a notable headwind impacting reported revenue by GBP 199,000,000 as the pound strengthened against the US dollar, the euro and the Chinese yuan. Notwithstanding revenue pressures, we took proactive steps to protect profitability.

Speaker 2

Adjusted operating profit declined 4.2 to £324,000,000 while margins improved by 10 basis points to 6.6%, reflecting our focus on rigorous cost control and commercial recoveries. The decrease in adjusted operating profit was primarily driven by lower revenue and partially offset by approximately million of commercial recoveries, which were mostly one off in nature. And therefore, most of them are not expected to reoccur in 2025. We also delivered GBP 27,000,000 of efficiencies related to our footprint restructuring initiatives as per our guidance. In line with our financial model, approximately GBP 31,000,000 of price reductions were offset by other ongoing performance initiatives.

Speaker 2

As a result, we contained the decremental margin to 6%, well below our financial model assumption of approximately 30%. Foreign exchange headwinds were £16,000,000 Moving on to GKN Automotive, revenue declined 7.2% for the year with the e Powertrain product line down 18%, primarily due to ongoing volatility in bev production schedules. Drive line revenue was more resilient declining 3.2%. E POWERTRANE accounted for over 70% of the revenue decline in automotive, largely due to lower volumes and unfavorable product mix. Given its significantly higher content per vehicle compared to driveline, the impact was more pronounced.

Speaker 2

This decline was primarily driven by four key platforms, underscoring the heightened sensitivity of this product line to shifts in bev production schedules. Adjusted operating profit for the segment was £268,000,000 down 8.5% with an operating margin of 6.8%, a decline of 10 basis points year on year, but a sequential improvement of 80 basis points from the first half. While lower volumes weighed on profitability, pricing recoveries, ongoing commercial initiatives and restructuring benefits helped offset some of the pressure. As a result, we limited the drop through margin impact to 7%, significantly better than typical volume decline scenarios. As I mentioned earlier, the commercial recoveries achieved this year were for the most part one off in nature.

Speaker 2

However, I do expect self help initiatives related to our restructuring program and reduced engineering spend in e drive systems to provide a more sustainable margin improvement going forward. These actions will help enhance the long term profitability of the business as we continue transitioning towards an e powertrain agnostic portfolio. In powder metallurgy, revenue declined 2.7% with North America experiencing lower volumes, while China saw moderate growth. Adjusted operating profit was GBP 89,000,000, down 3.1% with a 9.1% margin, broadly in line with the last year as the impact of volume weakness was offset by pricing initiatives and operational efficiencies. Moving on to earnings per share.

Speaker 2

Adjusted basic EPS for the year was 11.4p, down 17% compared to last year. This decline was primarily driven by lower earnings and higher finance costs. Adjusted net finance charges increased to GBP 109,000,000, up from GBP 91,000,000 in 2023, mainly due to higher interest rates and the full year impact of debt financing put in place post the merger. Tax charges for the year were GBP 54,000,000, resulting in an effective tax rate of 25% in line with our medium term outlook. Statutory basic EPS was a loss of 12.6p per share versus a loss of 36p per share in 2023.

Speaker 2

Free cash flow in 2024 was 15,000,000 down from £93,000,000 in 2023. This decline was mainly driven by lower earnings, higher interest payments, increased working capital and restructuring outflows, though it was partially offset by reduced capital expenditure. Interest paid was $26,000,000 higher, reflecting the full year impact of our post demerger capital structure with an effective interest rate of 6.3%. We expect this to remain stable in 2025, assuming no major changes in market conditions or leverage levels. Restructuring related cash flows were GBP 106,000,000, in line with our expectations, as we continued optimizing our footprint and driving operational efficiencies.

Speaker 2

In 2025, restructuring is expected to increase to GBP 120,000,000 to GBP 130,000,000. The increase versus 2024 is largely due to costs related to the rightsizing of the engineering spend in E drive systems. Capital expenditure was GBP 191,000,000, a reduction of GBP 104,000,000 year over year as we took a disciplined approach to spending and benefited from not having any major new production facility expansions. In 2025, we expect CapEx to remain at the lower end of our revised medium term guidance of 0.9 to 1.1 times depreciation and broadly similar to this year. Working capital improved in the second half as we took proactive steps to reduce inventory and align receivables with production volumes, ensuring more efficient cash usage.

Speaker 2

However, these improvements were not enough to offset the high working capital from the first half. While we do not anticipate a significant working capital benefit in 2025, we remain focused on cash conversion and efficiency. Tax outflows for the year were GBP 56,000,000, broadly similar to the prior year. Tax outflows in 2025 are expected to be slightly higher due to a legislative withdrawal of a patent box tax relief previously claimed in Italy and the settlement of a tax audit in Germany. Pension payments remained steady at GBP 44,000,000, consistent with our guidance.

Speaker 2

We maintained a strong liquidity position throughout the year while executing strategic refinancing actions to strengthen our balance sheet. Net debt of the year stood at GBP $968,000,000, up from GBP $847,000,000 in 2023. This increase was driven by lower free cash flow generation due to reduced earnings, higher restructuring outflows and share buybacks completed prior to the American Axle combination announcement. During the year, we successfully refinanced $500,000,000 in The U. S.

Speaker 2

Private placement market, spreading the debt maturities between 2028 and 02/1936. As a result, we diversified our investor base, improved our debt maturity profile and reduced refinancing risks in the medium term. Looking ahead, industry forecasts GLVP to remain flat year on year with a 0.9 decline when excluding China. Based on these external forecasts and our current order book, we anticipate group revenue to range from flat to a mid single digit decline in 2025 with an adjusted operating margin between 6.57% in constant currency. Restructuring savings and ongoing performance initiatives are expected to offset the impact of lower volumes and the commercial recoveries achieved in 2024.

Speaker 2

In line with industry trends, revenue growth in constant currency is expected to be stronger in the first half, while adjusted operating margin will improve in second half, reflecting the phasing of restructuring benefits. Free cash flow for 2025 is expected to be slightly higher than prior year with working capital seasonality and restructuring outflows more weighted towards H1. By 2026, we expect a significant increase in adjusted free cash flow as our global footprint restructuring is set to conclude by the end of twenty twenty five. As a reminder, our outlook does not consider the impact of recent tariffs, which seem to be changing on a daily basis. However, let me briefly outline our approach and how we plan to minimize the potential impact on the business.

Speaker 2

Since 2019, we have taken proactive steps to localize our supply chain, significantly reducing reliance on global imports. Our intercompany flows across regions are minimal, but we have some raw materials and components shipped into our U. S. Operations that will be exposed to these new tariffs. In regards to finished goods, there are no shipments from China and Canada to The U.

Speaker 2

S. And as for Mexico, the vast majority of products are picked up directly by the OEMs at our factory gates, making them responsible for onward shipment costs, including freight and duties. This is industry practice for suppliers like us. Additionally, we have a strong track record of recovering a significant part of any direct tariff impact on the business as demonstrated under the last Trump administration when steel tariffs were imposed. In summary, while we're not entirely new to some potential tariffs, we are well positioned to remain resilient and effectively mitigate their impact.

Speaker 2

Finally, on slide 18, you can find an unusual guidance slide to help you with the modeling. If you have any questions on this or other modeling matters, please speak to Pierre or me. Thank you. I will now hand back to Liam.

Speaker 1

Thanks, Roberto. I'm now going to talk in more detail about our businesses. Starting with GK and Automotive. Our Automotive business is built around two key product lines and our JV in China. Driveline is the core of the auto business, making up 57% of revenue.

Speaker 1

The majority coming from side shafts, which contribute 49%, while prop shafts has another 8%. E Powertrain accounts for 27% of revenue and includes all wheel drive systems, e Powertrain components and e Drive systems. And finally, our long established joint venture in China, which is equity accounted, represents 14% of revenue. Within this, Driveline makes up approximately 80% of the JV's revenues. Let me share with you why I believe our Driveline portfolio, the core of our business, remains on a solid footing.

Speaker 1

In 2024, Driveline slightly outperformed the declining light vehicle market outside China, demonstrating its resilience in a challenging environment. At the core of Driveline is our market leading side shaft portfolio, which has performed in line with the light vehicle market outside China over the last three years. This success is driven by our scale, deep technical expertise and comprehensive portfolio of agnostic products for ICE, hybrid and BEV platforms, all of which creates a strong competitive moat. Additionally, our well balanced customer platform and geographical mix provides diversification and stability in a volatile market. The powertrain agnostic nature of our driveline products allows us to navigate shifts in powertrain trends, ensuring long term resilience regardless of technology shifts.

Speaker 1

2024 was a challenging year for our e powertrain portfolio with revenue declining by approximately 18% year over year, primarily as a result of sudden change in build schedules on several platforms we saw in Q1. Unlike driveline, e POWERTRANE remains highly concentrated, making it more sensitive to platform and customer mix. Around 80% of the revenue decline was concentrated in just four high content platforms, three in e drive systems and one in all wheel drive. This concentration highlights the risks of dependency

Speaker 2

on a

Speaker 1

limited number of high content vehicle programs. While we expect and we're already seeing volumes from the delayed all wheel drive related platform to recover, we do not anticipate a return of volume from the three impacted e drive systems. E drive systems now account for just 1% of GKN Automotive's total revenue, down from 4% a year ago. This decline reflects structural shifts in the market that have fundamentally reshaped the medium to long term outlook for e drive systems. One of the key drivers behind this shift is higher in sourcing by OEMs as they increasingly bring e drive system production in house to gain greater control over the technology, cost and supply chain.

Speaker 1

As a result, the market available to automotive suppliers has contracted, leading to an abnormally competitive environment. Beyond these challenges, eDrive systems lack the vertical integration that strengthens our driveline business. This limits our ability to control input costs while their concentration on fewer platforms with high content per vehicle makes them more vulnerable to OEM production schedule volatility. Given these factors, we took decisive actions to right size our investment in e drive systems. We've reduced engineering gross spend in e Powertrain by million, delivering a million net benefit in 2025.

Speaker 1

At the same time, we also made the decision to close our UK research center. While we remain committed to maintaining our capabilities in developing e drive systems should the market improve, our focus is now on investing in areas with stronger returns, ensuring that our e powertrain business remains competitive and aligned with our broader powertrain agnostic strategy. Moving to China, our SDS joint venture remains the market leader in side shafts in China with 40% market share. Our customer focused approach has earned multiple industry awards reflecting our commitment to quality and innovation. We've also enhanced engagement through digital platforms enabling real time inventory tracking and production planning for improved efficiency.

Speaker 1

To reinforce our leadership, we showcased industry leading solutions at BYD and Sherry events and strengthened relationships with Chinese OEMs, hosting them at several of our global facilities across Europe and Asia. As Chinese OEMs expand globally, we are well positioned to support their growth, leveraging our expertise, relationships, and global footprint. Our strategic focus in China is to continue to profitably improve our share of revenue with Chinese OEMs. Over the past few years, local OEMs have expanded their share of light vehicle production in China, rising from 51% in 2021 to 67% in 2024. In parallel, our own revenue mix has shifted accordingly with revenue from Chinese OEMs growing from 27% in 2021 to 42% in 2024.

Speaker 1

While this progress is encouraging, we see further opportunity for profitable growth. Our strong order book and an improving book to bill ratio, which has risen from 0.9 times in 2022 to 1.5 times in 2024, highlighting our success in winning business and deepening partnerships with these customers. This momentum reinforces our commitment to strengthen our market position and capture long term growth opportunities in this rapidly evolving segment. Earlier, I outlined how the industry has evolved and how suppliers have had to adapt. Before we move on to Powder Metallurgy, I'd like to take a moment to highlight how we responded to these trends and the key changes we've made to our footprint, particularly in Europe.

Speaker 1

Since late twenty eighteen, when Roberto and I took on our respective roles at GKN Automotive, we have made significant progress in transforming our business to be leaner, more aligned to the trends of the industry. Today, we operate a highly local for local supply chains with production facilities serving their respective regions, whether that be China, Europe, North America, South America, India, Japan or Southeast Asia. Over the same period, we've reduced our overall headcount by approximately 20%, improving efficiency and agility. Additionally, we've taken decisive actions to optimize our footprint, closing 10 plants in high cost countries while opening a new greenfield facility in Hungary. This has increased our share of best cost country production by 10 percentage points, strengthening our cost position.

Speaker 1

These actions have not only lowered our cost base and enhanced our local for local strategy, they have also improved working capital management, created a more flexible workforce and increased our overall resilience and supply chain agility. Let me now highlight the specific actions we have successfully taken in Europe, an important region that has faced a challenging market. We acted quickly and decisively and were among one of the first Tier one suppliers to implement a major transformation program in the region. In fact, as the chart shows, a significant portion of our restructuring efforts we launched in 2019 have been focused in Europe. More than 50% of our global headcount reduction and six of the 10 high cost plant closures have been in Europe.

Speaker 1

Between 2019 and 2024, European light vehicle production declined by 19% and we adjusted our side shaft and prop shaft capacity accordingly, reducing both by 2013% respectively. We are now in the final phase of our footprint restructuring program with the transfer of production from Germany to Hungary. By 2026, when our transformation is largely completed, our European cost structure will be fully aligned to the structural shift in the market. This has given our European business a solid foundation, right sized for the market with lower cost of production and well positioned for future profitable growth. And finally, this slide shows why I remain confident in the long term prospects for our automotive business.

Speaker 1

Despite market volatility, 2024 was another strong year for commercial progress. We continue to expand our order pipeline, securing contract awards worth billion in forecast lifetime revenue, resulting in a book to bill ratio of 1.2x, reinforcing the strength of our diversified portfolio across products, customers and geographies. I'd now like to move on to Powder Metallurgy, the world's largest producer of cintametal components and the number one producer of iron powder, supplying a broad range of industries with high performance materials. Our strategic focus in Powder Metallurgy is on diversifying our portfolio and strengthening long term growth. Our Industrial segment performed well, driven by growth in metal additive manufacturing for non automotive customers.

Speaker 1

Our automotive body, chassis and bed portfolio saw a decline, primarily due to customer and platform mix in North America. Meanwhile, our auto engine and transmission portfolio slightly underperformed the market, though we are seeing positive tailwinds as OEMs extend ICE programs and pivot to hybrid technologies. Additionally, we are securing key contract extensions as OEMs extend platform lifetimes, reinforcing long term stability and growth for GKN Powder Metallurgy's core portfolio. In line with our strategy, Powder Metallurgy is making strong progress in expanding into new growth areas, including iron powder for LFP batteries, magnets, metal additive manufacturing, and powder for brake disc coating. Let me highlight a couple of key examples.

Speaker 1

One significant development is our success in supplying high quality ion powder for LFP batteries, which are gaining traction in both automotive and off grid storage applications. In November, we signed a supply agreement with First Phosphate Canada, a company specializing in high purity phosphate for LFP cathodes with potential for future expansion. We also Powder Metallity is well positioned to adapt to evolving market trends and driving sustainable, profitable growth. So in summary, in a challenging market environment, we've remained focused on everything under our control, ensuring we offset the impact of lower volumes on operating profit and protect our operating margins. We also took strategic steps to unlock value from our portfolio, including the proposed combination with American Axle, creating a global leader in driveline and metal forming.

Speaker 1

This combination will enhance scale and focus and is an excellent strategic fit that accelerates the execution of our strategy. With $300,000,000 in synergies, it will drive improved free cash flow, margin expansion, and create a more agile and resilient business, better equipped to navigate industry volatility and structural shifts. I'm excited about the opportunities this combination brings and the significant value it will create for our business, employees and shareholders. I look forward to discussing our results and strategy with shareholders in The UK, Europe and US over the coming days. We can now open to questions.

Speaker 1

Thank you.

Operator

We will now begin the question and answer session. If you wish to ask a question, we ask that you please use the raise hand function at the bottom of your Zoom screen. If you have dialed in, please select star 9 to raise your hand and star 6 to unmute. Participants can also submit questions through the webcast page using the ask a question button. I would like to remind all participants that this call is being recorded.

Operator

We'll pause a moment to allow the queue to form. Our first question comes from Vanessa Jefferies from Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Speaker 3

Hey, can you hear me?

Speaker 2

Yes. Hi, Vanessa.

Speaker 3

Hi. Thank you so much for taking my questions. First one, I guess, it seems like there's a lot of really positive strategic progress made in Powder Metallurgy this year. Now that Jean Marc's been in the role for a year, where do you think you can get to from a margin perspective?

Speaker 2

Yeah. I think the margin ambitions haven't changed for this. We'd like to see that business getting above the 10% margin. It's now low night. What Jean Marc has really been focusing on is the commercial growth strategy and making sure we have clear line of sight to how we can manage that product portfolio as as the BEV transition occurs.

Speaker 1

Yeah. And I think, Vanessa, as we we highlighted on the slide that there's, you know, there's a number of, adjacent areas where we're very excited about the opportunities, such as, you know, in LFP batteries, break coatings. We continue to make progress on magnets. So we're and and and also, you know, some exciting growth channels in in cooling systems for AI chips, so using our metal additive manufacturing technology. So we're very optimistic about how that business is evolving.

Speaker 3

Yeah. And it seems like really good progress. And then second, you opened the call talking about the benefits of more geographic diversification and how growth will continue to come from China. I guess on American Axle side, they've talked about the benefits of this deal from their perspective being further geographic diversification. But then the combined group will be significantly less geographically diversified than you are now with less exposure to China and I guess the least geographically diversified supplier in North America.

Speaker 3

So maybe how do you reconcile those? And then maybe the same question from a customer diversification perspective. Appreciate your direct tariff impact is limited, but I think GM is the OEM most exposed to tariffs and you'll be going from 11% exposure to 25%. So I guess any comments around the attractiveness of that?

Speaker 1

Yeah. So, you know, we we clearly we went through a very rigorous process to assess the strategic rationale and and benefit for proposed combined merge combination with with with American Axle. And as we highlighted, you know, there was a number of, elements that we proposed, which was around, you know, the cash element per share, the participation for our shareholders of 49% in the combined group, and the significant synergies of $300,000,000. Now what it brings us from a portfolio standpoint, you know, if I if I step back and look at the driveline space, you know, an area where Dallas has always been underrepresented and we've always seen a significant opportunity is really in the is in the full size truck and SUV market in North America, which, you know, as you can you can see, American Axle have an incredibly strong position in that space. And I mean, it's it's highly complementary to the overall driveline system itself when you look at rigid beam axles.

Speaker 1

And then if you look at the the e powertrain components, space, you know, we've got a a business in in differentials and advanced differentials, which when you bring that together, American Axles capability in that area, you know, it creates a business of significant scale, and technological capability. That's on the driveline space. And then if you look at metal forming, you know, that clearly brings a significant amount of vertical integration that, you know, brings, great much greater cost control on the overall portfolio. So when we bring those two elements together, you know, we see that the combination is a perfect strategic fit and creates a very strong leading driveline supplier in in in well, in driveline and metal forming.

Operator

Our next question comes from Harry Phillips from Peel Hunt. Please go ahead.

Speaker 4

Yes. Good morning, everyone. Couple of questions, please. Just in terms of the sort of e drive systems and e powertrain and the sort of arithmetic around the reduction engineering. I was just checking the detail.

Speaker 4

You've got a net 10,000,000 saving 30,000,000 less than the way of sort of customer funded engineering costs expenses, call it what you will, is is is that now the net gain or would is is there another step to come going forward into outer years? And then secondly, just on the customer recoveries, the 70,000,000, as you said, Roberto, in the presentation, obviously, none of this is nonrecurring. I'm just trying to do the math section. You caught me as I was doing it in terms of making speaking on the line. If if you add the 70 back in, I'm assuming the drop through would be, you know, about that would take you back to your normal or somewhere near your normal trend rate.

Speaker 4

And and therefore in the context of this year is that sort of 25, 30 drop through the sort of right maths to to think about?

Speaker 5

Yeah.

Speaker 2

So let let me tackle the the engineering first and then I'll I'll help you think about the '25 guidance. On the engineering, we look at obviously what we incur is what we call gross spend, which is pre customer contributions. Then depending on programs and it tends to be higher on the e powertrain and e drive systems, specifically within the e powertrain arena where programs are more tailored. We seek customer contributions to that engineering expense. So that then takes us, you know, the sum of Oh, sorry.

Speaker 2

Taking your gross spend, which is on us, minus whatever contributions we'd get from customers gets you to a net expense, which is what you see reported. Now, the maths is we're taking 35,000,000 off that growth line because of our restructuring actions on the engineering, which will result in 25 in a 10,000,000 net benefit because we also have a decrease of let's call, you know, the maximum say 25,000,000, in customer recoveries year on year. Okay. So that's that 10,000,000 in this year. Going forwards, I would expect, you know, we'll manage attrition, but I would expect that to be a structural change that continues going forward.

Speaker 2

And there might be some immaterial carryover because not everybody's coming out January 1. So the 10,000,000,000 is a 25 net benefits. In terms of 25 modeling, you know, you're right. The way we mitigated, that drop through margin in last year in '24 was really driven by two key levers, I would say. One is, the customer recoveries that you mentioned, but also I don't want people to forget our footprint restructuring efforts.

Speaker 2

Right? We always said that we'd have roughly twenty, twenty five million come through, and I think it was just above that amount as we also did some SG and A restructuring. So, you have, as I think about '25, you're right, you have to put in your 25 to 30% decline. Now where it gets tricky is if you take midpoints of guidance, in terms of revenue decline year on year, you have to also discount it for, I would say, at least those custom commercial recoveries, which were in price prior year. So the portion that is not recoverable this year or doesn't repeat in 2025, you have to reduce it from that top line decline before you calculate a volume impact, true volume impact, which I would flow through at 25 to 30%.

Speaker 4

Perfect. Yeah. And I got that. That's really helpful.

Speaker 2

The offsets is we we still have some commercial recoveries that we're going after as they will not all the conversations ended last year for the volume decline. And then, you know, this is the the year we always said would be the big year in terms of restructuring benefits with, the footprint benefits generating roughly that 40,000,000 is what we said previously. And then as from Liam and I, 10,000,000 of engineering.

Speaker 4

Fantastic. Very helpful. Thanks a lot.

Operator

Our next question comes from Mark Fielding with RBC. Please go ahead.

Speaker 6

Hi. Yeah. You've actually just covered most of what I was going to ask about in terms of the commercial recoveries, but I suppose I just wanted a little bit more clarity. I'm curious with these recoveries, how are they, like, very widespread across the business in terms of across multiple contracts and programs and things, or are they quite specific to a few particular ones? And to that context of you said there are still some, obviously, that you're pursuing into 2025.

Speaker 6

I'm curious that if we end up at the worst end of expectations, for example, and volumes are down again, in 2025, does that open up more potential for, you know, further discussions to be needed? I'm just curious about the flexing around this. Thanks.

Speaker 2

Okay. So, morning again, Mark. The, I guess two things. On the prior year recoveries, it's two key categories. We completed in the first half and, you know, we talked about this during the interim, some inflation recoveries linked to cost pressures that impacted us in '22 and '23.

Speaker 2

Conversations sometimes take a bit longer to conclude and somewhat concluded early last year. And then, you know, the the majority though was volume, commercial recoveries, volume related. The way to think about it is, you know, we we've been quite open and transparent saying that the majority of our volume decline prior year was really linked to four programs. So you can imagine around those four programs, we were seeking some compensation. But there's also been, in slew of other programs that have either been delayed for which we've had these commercial and these are regular ongoing conversations or and other volume shortfalls.

Speaker 2

I'll remind you that our contracts, you know, allow for a tunnel of plus on average, plus or minus 10% of volume. And if volumes go outside of that tunnel, you know, it opens the doors for a for a conversation. Obviously, if volumes are higher, what we tend to see is OEMs coming to us to ask for more efficiency. So a bit more price from their perspective. Like last year, volumes were significantly lower, which opened the door for us to go and say, look, we committed to higher volumes because of your contract.

Speaker 2

So let's have a conversation. And link here to what happens this year. It it really depends, you know, if it's gonna be widespread and and what happens to this plus or minus 10%. Again, it's an average, but, it it's a platform by customer, by region conversation that we we're always monitoring.

Speaker 6

Great. Thanks. Can I just ask a a separate question, which is just in terms of obviously, in in the context of the, American Axle offer? It obviously brings back at the half last year, you announced the sort of strategic review and potential sale of Powder Met. I'm just a bit curious how far down the line you got in that process or when the sort of American Axle side of things took over and just whether there wasn't significant interest on the Prada Met side or just a little more context around that as well, please.

Speaker 1

Yeah, that's a great question. Maybe I'll give you maybe a broader answer to that. So I think it would be good to just walk you through the process that we went through as a board to get to the recommendation. You know, we've and we've always said this ever since we we demerged from Melrose, which is is, you know, looking at how can we unlock shareholder value for the business, and and that's really been looking at, you know, continuing to focus on our existing strategy, but also looking at things, you know, such as the sum of the parts of the business and looking at where is there opportunity to to unlock shareholder value. And I think we demonstrated a number of things that we did over the last eighteen months, you know, to to to drive that, which is around, you know, the dividend, the share buyback, the disposal of hydrogen, reducing investment in in e drive systems, and then as you as as as we announced in August, which was the strategic review of powdered metallurgy, which was to look at the question of what do we do with powdered met?

Speaker 1

Do we do we keep it within the group? Do we sell it as a whole? Do we look, you know, what's the interest externally? Or do we even look at selling it in pieces? We launched that review in August.

Speaker 1

Then in around September, we were approached by the American Axle team, which was an unsolicited approach, regarding a possible cash and share combination of the two companies. We looked at that very, very seriously, and obviously we looked at that in the context of the interest that we were getting for the powder metallurgy business externally, which was not not overwhelmingly exciting, to be honest. We looked at if we could have sold the palmetology business, what would we have done with the proceeds? We then looked at that versus, you know, what would the stand alone share price of the company be going forward based on, you know, the macro that we've seen in the industry? And then, you know, what was the merits of of a merge with American Appsilent.

Speaker 1

And I think as as you look at the the driveline space, it's clear that there are significant opportunities for consolidation. So we evaluated their offering in in in, you know, in in a lot of detail against a number of price area, including conducting a very detailed risk assessment. And the conclusion was when you look at the benefits of the deal, the fit of the portfolio for both driveline and powder metallurgy because, you know, let's not forget the powder metallurgy business fits incredibly well with their metal forming business. And in fact, American Axle was one of the largest customers for powder for the powder met business, so the two businesses fit together extremely well. And when we added that and looked at the synergies, it was it was clearly, a compelling recommendation from the board to to proceed with the with the announcement that we made in January.

Speaker 1

Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from William Jones with BNP Paribasikhsain. Please go ahead. Star six to unmute your line, William.

Speaker 7

Hello. Hi. Sorry about that. Thanks for taking my questions. I've got a couple of that's alright.

Speaker 7

EPowertrain or the eDrive systems restructuring, I think you you've previously indicated that you were open to to editing that business almost entirely, and you'd kind of pointed to the potential that that could support e powertrain components demand with some of your competitors. I presume the actions you're taking today precludes that. Is that fair?

Speaker 1

Yes. If I look at our e drive systems, there's there's three there's three pieces to that portfolio. You know, you've got the components, so the differentials, the gears, the gearbox capability. You've got the software and and also you've got the the motors and the electronics around it. The majority of our restructuring has really been around the electronics and software and systems, engineering expense.

Speaker 1

The the core of our capability, which is in gears and gearboxes, you know, we're saying we have a number of eDrive systems that we want to continue to support, but also, you know, we see e Powertrain components, which again are very complementary to the e Powertrain components portfolio of American Axle, we see that as a key area for growth, and that's why we've retained that engineering capability for the future.

Speaker 7

Okay. Understood. Then switching tax slightly. The you previously guided to around 200 basis points of margin support from the the, footprint relocation in automotive. Now, of course, that was contingent on probably higher volumes than we've seen.

Speaker 7

Can you can you just give an update on how much you expect to to gain this year and then next year? Because, obviously, 200 is probably a little bit high, well, given where we are with volumes. But how much of what is left is going to be front or back loaded?

Speaker 2

Yes. So will the the 200 basis points was really driven on flat volumes to your point in volume versus 23 and translated to a net benefit of roughly GBP 80,000,000 if you do the math on the 23 auto revenues. Those projects are still very much on track to deliver that £80,000,000 benefit. I've always said that the benefit is by nature not for the most part not volume dependent. Because it's don't forget we're getting rid of some fixed costs as we close the plants, independently of where they are but the fixed cost goes away.

Speaker 2

Then there's labor arbitrage and also efficiencies as in the indirect labor transfer. It's not a one for one. And these the restructuring actions have also been in the driveline segment of auto, which has been not as impacted as much by volume, right? So we're still very much committed to the million net benefit approximately. Last year, we said we'd deliver 20 and you saw by today's conversation as well that we exceeded that expectation.

Speaker 2

And this year, we had always the amount of roughly 40,000,000 and I'm still committed to that 40,000,000. That's one of the drivers that will offset the one time benefit of commercial recoveries in 2024 and that leaves the remaining 20 roughly to be achieved in 2026. And as I said, we're on track for for that to the on this path.

Speaker 7

And and just to be clear, so that so the outperformance last year, does that detract from the expected performance next year? Or is that an incremental benefit above the AT?

Speaker 2

No. That was incremental as we also did some SG and A restructuring.

Speaker 7

Okay. Great.

Speaker 2

So expect about 40,000,000 this year from those footprints and then add the engineering that's additional to that 40.

Speaker 7

Thank you. And part of NutellaGy, what's the scope for restructuring in that business? Or is the is is it quite limited? Is is is the focus there really on turning over the product portfolio to to be less reliant on auto?

Speaker 1

Yeah. So, Navin, I'll take this one. So, you know, when I look at pyrametology, I'm we're not looking at a business that's got a major footprint transformation opportunity like we saw with automotive or or or an urgency to do that. Powder metallurgy is much more around the portfolio, making sure that we, you know, we pursue growth in new adjacent areas and also non ice specific areas. There's some opportunity in North America with the footprint, but it's nothing major like you would see with like you saw with automotive.

Speaker 1

And again, you know, looking at the combination with American Axle, they've got some very complementary plants. So clearly, when you look at the opportunity for synergies and and capacity utilization, we see that as an opportunity.

Speaker 7

Great. That's helpful. And and one last, if I may. You obviously have the Chinese JV, which I believe you licensed your technology to to sell in China. As part of the broader American Axle Group, would you expect that all of the technologies that they have would also be licensed to that Chinese JV?

Speaker 7

And do you expect that could drive significant growth in China above what you, you already would have as as down the stand alone?

Speaker 1

Yeah. I I think it's it's it's it's early days to be able to comment on that, and clearly that's something that, you know, David and I will be will be discussing, as we go forward and is planning the integration. I was in China last week. You know, American Axle have got a very capable business in China, as as do we. And I think, you know, as as the teams go forward, we'll look at what's the best thing to do for the business combined and for the future.

Speaker 1

So too early to say really at this point.

Speaker 7

Understood. Alright. Thanks for taking the questions.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Will.

Operator

There are no further questions on the webinar. I will now hand over to to Pierre to read out the written questions submitted via the webcast page.

Speaker 5

Just a couple of questions, one of which you already answered in terms of magnitude and phasing of the benefits from the restructuring program. Then Liam, we have the questions around, you know, talking a lot about unlocking shareholder value through all the strategic and operating action that you've done. However, there is evidence that share price of Dow has reduced since the merger. So why do you think the share price does not reflect this unlocking of shareholder value?

Speaker 1

Yeah. I think there's a few things I can comment to on that, Pierre. First of all, since we demerged, we had a tremendous amount of shareholder churn, nearly 100% actually, over the first six to twelve months. So we had a huge amount of shareholder rotation in the stock following the demerger. The second thing is really, you know, if I look at the macro and what's going on in the automotive industry, and as you saw from our 24 numbers, it's been a very challenging year last year in terms of volumes.

Speaker 1

And as I highlighted on slide five, you know, the the overall macro in the industry is changing, and there's a a structural change taking place around tariffs, geopolitics, regionalization, the different requirements from our customers. And that's creating, you know, a strong headwind for a for a number of, automotive suppliers. And so the whole sector has been really challenged over the last, eighteen, twenty four months. So, you know, what we've been doing as a board and the management team is looking at pulling every single lever we can that's under our control to to try and unlock shareholder value and get the business, the share price to reflect what we believe is the true value of the company. And we've been looking, as you say, at divesting of the hydrogen business, strategic review of PM, continuing to accelerate on all of our restructuring.

Speaker 1

And as we've recommended, we believe that the right way forward is a combination of the American Axle, which gives the business significant scale and focus to be able to continue to navigate these macro trends that are clearly, you know, the structural shift in the industry.

Speaker 5

And sorry, one question regarding side shots outside China. Why has it only tracked LVP when CPV per bev is greater and bev penetration has been increasing over the past year? Shouldn't side shaft outperform LVP?

Speaker 1

If you look at the overall, it depends on the customers and the platforms that we're on, whether they're four wheel drive or two wheel drive platforms. But we, you know, we the way that we we look at our side shelf business is that if if we're tracking LVP with this significant volatility and mix going on on their platforms, we're very comfortable in terms of how that's been growing.

Speaker 5

K. And one last question from the web. It's around the American Axle combination. The $300,000,000 synergies announced with a combination of American Axle represents a quarter, roughly the combined group EBITDA. Can you please explain the process you went through to come up with a number and the confidence to achieve it?

Speaker 5

Yeah.

Speaker 2

So under UK takeover rules, we had to go through a very rigorous process. So first of all, what defines as a synergy is only something that can be achieved thanks to the combination of the two businesses. So as an example, all of our ongoing restructuring programs are excluded from that synergy calculation. So they're truly incremental. The other thing is if assurance has to be given on the synergy number.

Speaker 2

So one of the big four audit firms signed off on this synergy number And you can appreciate that they required a lot of data and performed their, their, I would say, rigorous analysis to make sure that these synergies are tangible. And on the other side, they also not only have to sign off on the benefits but on the cost to achieve. So when we say that these synergies are expected to have a one time cost to achieve, both the 300,000,000 benefit was signed off as well as as I mentioned the cost to achieve. I can give you some specifics, but essentially what happens is we provide data and we say for this kind of work stream, that's as an example, corporate costs, we expect a certain amount of synergies and they go through almost line item by line item to see the achievability of that and they rank it. And then depending on the ranking that each line item gets, we're allowed to hold a certain percentage of that number that we first quoted to them.

Speaker 2

So, we obviously went in with a higher number that was then given assurance after a certain discount. And that's how the 300,000,000. The the other thing I want to point out of these synergies, they fall across three categories, in order of importance, in terms of relevance, I should say. The first one is procurement and and vertical integration that is about 50 of the synergies. Then you have SG and A corporate costs, which is about 30% of that 300,000,000.

Speaker 2

And that is forecasted to impact maybe 1% of the combined workforce, so about 500 people. And then the last one is operations, which is about 20% of the synergies again impacted expected to impact about 1.5%. The point I wanted to stress is the fact that operations is only 20%, I think is another testament to how the two businesses really are complementary and not overlapping and and and the, you know, the great strategic fit of this combination.

Speaker 1

But I think I can also want to add that, you know, if I look at the $300,000,000 of synergies, the majority of those synergies are within our control and don't require us to go and give back a chunk of that to the customers. And if there are any customer givebacks required, that's already baked into the number, the £300,000,000 but as Roberto said, the majority of it is within our control. Now in terms of our confidence of achieving that number, I think there's two things, two proof points. One is, you know, David and the American Axle team have done an acquisition and an inter big integration where they exceeded their synergies in the past, so they've they've got experience in driving synergies. And secondly, you know, the management team and leadership, David is very, very focused on making sure he's got the best of the best.

Speaker 1

So, you know, where the the the the Dallas team have got expertise and experience in in integrating business and driving performance, and engineering expertise and procurement is making sure that we've got the right the best people coming together, to make sure that one plus one equals three.

Speaker 2

And then as you as you heard us say, these synergies are really cost focused. You know, we what we we what we will also be looking at is if there's any, and it was hinted at a previous question and answer is if there's gonna be any commercial, synergies and then also cash synergies as we can opt as an example, can we optimize CapEx as a coupon group?

Speaker 5

Okay. There are no further questions. I think operator we can we can proceed.

Speaker 1

Okay. Thank you very much. I look forward to seeing some of you as we're on the road over the next two or three weeks. Thanks so much.

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Earnings Conference Call
Dowlais Group H2 2024
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