Quilter H2 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
March 5, 2025

There are 7 speakers on the call.

Operator

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to our 2024 full year results. This morning, I will take you through the business highlights and discuss our improved flow momentum. Then I'll cover our strategic priorities and update on our transformation programs. Finally, I'll say a few words about how we're thinking about the evolution of our business over the next few years. Mark will talk through the financials and then I'll summarize and we'll take questions.

Operator

We had an excellent year in 2024. Two years ago at my first results presentation as CEO, I said that Quilter was less efficient than it could be and it wasn't delivering the growth it was capable of. The strategy was good, but it needed tight execution and that's exactly what we've been focusing on. And therefore, I'm really pleased to report strong profit growth and higher operating margins. Quilter is now in much better shape.

Operator

Let me start with the key highlights. Adjusted profit increased 17% to $196,000,000 that reflects robust cost management as well as higher revenues. Our operating margin at 29% is above our 25% by by 2025 target and is broadly in line with our 30% medium term goal. Core net flows were sharply higher up to over billion. Earnings per share increased 13% to 10.6p and the board is proposing a dividend for the year of 5.9p, an increase of 13%.

Operator

So a year of excellent progress and very strong flow momentum. Before we get into the detail, let me turn to the ongoing advice review, which we're confident we can resolve without a major impact to our business. As the regulatory process is not yet complete, there is a limit to how much I can say. I'm sure you'll have many questions, but I won't be able to provide further detail beyond the comments that I'm about to make. I believe that a well delivered ongoing advice service should be the foundation of an enduring trusted relationship between a client and an advisor.

Operator

As such, we welcome the announcement made by the FCA on the February 24, recognizing the importance of financial advice in helping people make the most of their money. As you know, a skilled person was appointed to undertake the advice review in June. That review is well advanced and is expected to complete in the second quarter of this year. The work we've undertaken has supported our view that apart from a limited number of cases where clients have paid for ongoing service that this has been provided. The level of customer complaints we've experienced in this area remains relatively low.

Operator

We have concluded that in those instances where clients may not have been provided with the expected level of service from their advisor, following the completion of the skilled person review and subsequent discussions with the FCA, that some form of client remediation is likely to be appropriate. Our current best estimate of the cost of undertaking this additional work, together with the potential cost of client remediation, amounts to million including interest. So we've recognized a provision for this amount. We will do the right thing for our customers. Let me now take a step back and look at what we've achieved over the last two years.

Operator

Our adjusted profit before tax has increased by 46%. Our operating margin has improved by seven percentage points. Our core net inflows are up nearly 150%. We're running in line with our 5% of opening balances target. That's great progress.

Operator

We are now clearly starting to deliver to our potential. I'm particularly pleased with the improvement in flow performance last year. You can see a summary of our quarterly performance in 2024 in green and how that compares to 2023 in gray. The key points that I'd like to draw out. We increased new business flows in each quarter of twenty twenty four and we capped the year off with a very strong final quarter.

Operator

As a result, we've delivered improving trends in net flows through the year with the second half considerably stronger than the first. And I'd add that the first quarter of this year is currently tracking close to the second half run rate. So assuming that current trends continue, we expect to announce a meaningful year on year uplift in the first quarter flows when we update in April. Delivering in line with our 5% net inflows target is key, but I also want us to be performing well against other leading players across the market. So let's turn to that.

Operator

I'll start with affluent. This slide shows the performance of our platform and leading peers, gross flows on the left and net flows on the right, both expressed as a percentage of opening assets shown vertically and with the total assets on the horizontal axis. The key takeaway is that we are both the largest advised platform in terms of scale and the fastest growing, and that is a very attractive competitive position. The improvement in net flows can clearly be seen on this slide. On the left, you can see the cumulative net monthly flows onto the platform in 2023.

Operator

And on the right, you can see the improvement delivered this year. In 2023, the Quilter platform generated good net flows, but the IFA net flows were frankly disappointing. The actions we've taken coupled with a better market have driven a significant and consistent improvement in IFA net flows. I think our performance in 2024 demonstrates the tangible benefits of our dual distribution model. We've got two strong distribution channels contributing to platform flows, which obviously in turn drives flows into our solutions.

Operator

In 2024, those two channels delivered gross flows of over billion. That's an increase of over 50% on the prior year. And because our platform is highly scalable, incremental assets generate a very attractive operating margin. So we are happy adding assets from IFAs who just want to use our platform. But of course, we prefer it where assets are both in our solutions and on our platform.

Operator

In 2024, billion or around 40% of the gross platform inflows went into our solutions. By channel, that's about 80% of the flows from our advisors and about 20% of those from IFAs. So while growing our advisor base is important, growing our relationships with IFA firms is equally important. And I'll say more on that in a moment. But first, let me turn to the platform based solutions we offer through Quilted Investors.

Operator

We offer two approaches: Fund to Funds and the Guerrillaium brand and our WealthSelect managed portfolio service. Regulation has encouraged more independent advisors to outsource investment solutions. And our WealthSelect MPS is one of the largest ranges in the market and meets this need incredibly well. Its strong performance and competitive price make it attractive to both our own and independent advisors, and you can see the resulting growth on the right. On the left, the performance in Keryllium Active has been an outflow, but our blend and passive ranges have delivered very good growth.

Operator

From what we've seen on our platform, we've retained around threefour of the assets we've lost from Keryllium Active in other quilter solutions, but the mix effect has reduced our revenue margin on managed assets. Mark's going to comment more on revenue margin guidance later. Let me now talk to our high net worth flows. On the left, you can see we're generating new business inflows pretty much in line with our peer group. When you look at the performance on the right, the net performance, we delivered solid net inflows last year.

Operator

That said, 2% level of net inflows is not where I want us to be. So we've got a number of initiatives to help get us up towards the mid single digit level. I'll discuss those a bit more shortly. In terms of driving the growth, we do intend to drive a clearer demarcation between our discretionary portfolio service, or DPS, and our managed portfolio service, MPS, for the remainder. Essentially, we're going to move some of our existing lower value DPS clients into MPS.

Operator

That will lead to some easing of the revenue margin as MPS margins are lower, but it will also free up investment manager capacity to add relationships with new and larger clients, so it's good for growth and operating margin. This will, of course, be a gradual transition. Now let me turn to the three strategic priorities we've previously set out to improve our business: building distribution, enhancing propositions and driving efficiency. I'll start with distribution in the Quilter channel. There are three strands to helping get our Quilter Channel to where it should be.

Operator

First, we're building the network of tomorrow. We want to improve the productivity of our advisors by giving them the tools to do their jobs better. That's all part of our Advice Transformation Programme. Over the last three years, the work we have done on improving alignment has significantly improved the flows of our advisors coming onto our platform and into our solutions. And productivity, which we measure as gross flows per advisor, has also improved.

Operator

That's running at million on an annualized basis, up from million in 2023. That has been helped by the continued progress on back book transfers, which were around €800,000,000 in 2024, up from €750,000,000 in 2023. The 1,400 or so advisers across the business wrote about €5,000,000,000 of net net new business last year, equivalent to 20 sorry, that was gross to equivalent to 26% of opening balances. And better retention led to net flows as a percentage of opening assets increasing by around 1.5 percentage points, so very good progress. Next, we want to recruit the advisers of tomorrow.

Operator

The waterfall at the top provides a breakdown of the change in our adviser numbers this year. The net decline of 23% in the first half was mainly due to natural attrition and retirements exceeding recruitment. The modest increase in the second half reflected the initiatives we've been working on. We added more firms to the network in 2024 than in the previous year. And we saw the reward from our investment in our academy payoff through a higher number of graduates and By the end of last month, we had nine firms had joined Quilter Partners.

Operator

We're going to see how those firms progress before we're making any significant investments, but we're very pleased with how Quilter Partners is doing. Next, let's look at the IFA channel. Our focus here is twofold. First, to improve our market share of IFA new business and second, to become the platform of choice for an even greater number of IFAs. The chart at the top demonstrates the strength of our competitive position.

Operator

It summarizes IFA transfers between our platform and peers in 2023 and in 2024. We haven't shown a scale because it's commercially sensitive, but the bars above the line represent net transfers to us and the bars below the line show transfers from us to others. As you can see, right across the market, we gain more from competitor platforms than we lose. And pretty much across the board, the level of business transferred to us has increased year on year. So we're becoming the platform of choice for more IFAs.

Operator

In 2023, the main drag was from consolidators, which are on the right. And pleasingly, the outflows from them fell sharply in 2024. And finally, on this slide in the bottom right, we've updated a chart that you've seen before. The green line is our market share of gross new business flows across the market and the black line is our share of stock. You can see that we are clearly taking market share of new business flows and our share of total advised platform assets is now also increasing.

Operator

That's an excellent outcome for the largest player in the market. And I think there's still more that we can do. Next, propositions. We've continued to enhance our proposition. We introduced our Cash Hub in early twenty twenty four.

Operator

We launched WealthSelect on a number of third party platforms as well. In high net worth, we've added specific tailored propositions for partners at leading accounting firms as well as for IFAs who work with family solutions and entrepreneurs. We're also enhancing our investment offering for clients with more complex financial needs. And we're investing to extend our digital capabilities with the new Quilt AchieveIt app and with the acquisition of New Wealth. New Wealth is an exciting long term project that supports our strategic objective of broadening our client base.

Operator

It's a small digital operation that we acquired last summer and it will help us solve a problem that the advice industry faces. Many advisers within our ecosystem are having to turn away business because it's uneconomic. That 35 year old who knocks on the door with in savings presents a dilemma. Advisors want to help them, but the revenue an advisor would generate doesn't justify the cost of full face to face advice. With New Wealth, we can give advisors a digital proposition that they can use to support their clients earlier in their wealth journey, incubating them if you like.

Operator

We are really excited about the opportunity because it's going to build a pipeline of new relationships at a lower client acquisition cost. And it also helps support outcomes from the Advice Guidance Boundary Review by delivering advice based solutions to underserved segments. The contribution to flows from New Wealth is likely to be modest for the next few years, but it has a powerful potential over the longer term. Our proposition enjoys considerable market recognition. Notably Platform of the Year and leading platform for MPS are Postroder's UK Platform Awards our five star service awards from Feet Advisor, the de facto expert rated award for Quilt Achieviate.

Operator

And as you know, we have extremely strong Trustpilot scores. So we're getting a lot right, but we can never be complacent. Let's now review the three broader transformation programs highlighted on this slide. The most significant remaining work is on the Advice transformation program, which I touched on earlier. It will deliver results over the next two to three years, including better customer experience and higher advisor productivity.

Operator

Next, in high net worth, we've obtained regulatory approval to offer advice from the Quilt Achieviat legal entity, giving clients a seamless integrated service. And on simplification, we're on track to complete our plans by the end of twenty twenty five. We've delivered million of our million cost saving target and will deliver the remainder by the end of this year. We've made great progress in transforming Quilter and improving the pace of execution. The prospects for this sector remain strong, not least because too many UK consumers over save and under invest.

Operator

They also need to take an increased responsibility for their own financial health as the government provides less support and as new pension accumulation is almost exclusively in defined contribution arrangements. As the nation's second largest advice business, I want Quilter to play its role in building brighter financial futures for as many households as we can. With such a strong growth opportunity, we're going to invest further in our brand and in our propositions and in our front office distribution. As a result, our focus is shifting to the core goals you can see on the right. First, distribution.

Operator

Growing our advisor base and active IFA firms remains important, but we want to increase our market share, improve productivity, broaden our client range and maintain net flows at 5%. Next, we'll continue to innovate and invest in our propositions like new wealth and ensure we remain highly customer centric. Finally, now that we are close to our 30% operating margin, we're deliberately moving our focus to being future fit. What does that mean? It means completing our simplification program and then improving our operating margin beyond our target 30% base over time, at the same time as accelerating investment in data, AI and growth initiatives and continuing to distill a high performance culture in this company.

Operator

You should expect the operating margin improvement. You shouldn't expect it to be linear, of course. It's going to reflect the investment phasing and natural market volatility. Right. With that, let me hand over to Mark.

Speaker 1

Thank you, Stephen, and good morning, everyone. Let me start by echoing Stephen's comments that our business is in great shape. Last year, we experienced a strong financial performance and it's really encouraging to see that driven by revenues and flows and not just cost control. There are four key points I'd like to make about our 2024 results. One, we've delivered pleasing revenue growth of 7%.

Speaker 1

Two, the revenue margin of 44 basis points was in line with our guidance. Three, we've maintained cost discipline, which has led to a 17% profit increase and a two percentage point improvement in operating margin. And four, our balance sheet, even after the customer remediation exercise provision remains in good shape, supporting the dividend increase of 13 in line with EPS growth. What you can see here is that operating leverage drove strong growth in profits and EPS. Let me walk you through the details.

Speaker 1

Starting top left, as you already heard from Stephen, net flows of billion in the core business was substantially ahead of 2023. Our average AUMA was up 11% on last year due to those inflows and supportive market conditions. And top right, you can see all income categories grew, giving revenues of million in total. Costs bottom left were up 3% to £474,000,000 so good operating leverage. As a result, we increased adjusted profit by 17% to £196,000,000 That gave an operating margin of 29%.

Speaker 1

And we reported adjusted diluted earnings per share of 10.6p, an increase of 13%. Now getting into the detail, Let's start with revenue margins, which landed in line with our guidance. On this slide, each chart shows the second half twenty twenty three run rate, the level in the first half of this year and the second half run rate as we exited 2024. In high net worth on the left, the overall margin was broadly stable. In affluent, the lower managed margin largely reflected mix shift with Careem active outflows moving into our other solutions.

Speaker 1

You can see that most of that decline was in the first half, with the second half broadly stable. Looking ahead, I expect the managed margin to fluctuate around the low to mid 30 basis points level with mix being the main driver of movements. Next, our platform or administered margin was resilient in the second half. The step down in the first half was largely due to removing the platform charge on cash balances in February 2024. Going forward, some of the interest rate benefit we generate on client cash will diminish as interest rates begin to ease.

Speaker 1

My expectation continues to be for a decline in the platform margin of around a basis point a year. Let's now turn to revenues by segment. Our high net worth business delivered a good performance. The increase in income largely reflected the benefit of higher assets with total revenue increasing by 7%. In the affluent segment, revenues grew 8%, another good performance, supported by growth across all income categories.

Speaker 1

Let's now turn to the detail on costs at both the group and segment level. The efficiencies we've achieved in the last few years are now giving us the capacity to invest in growth. Last year, cost growth was less than half the increase in revenues, despite inflationary headwinds, higher variable staff compensation and growth investment. And as you'll note, the cost of revenue generating staff and variable compensation has remained broadly stable as a percentage of revenues. The increase in absolute pound terms was linked to better business performance.

Speaker 1

The waterfall on the right summarizes the main cost changes year on year. Increases came from inflation, as well as the investments we've made. Reductions came from our simplification program. In the bar far right, you can see how the overall cost base breaks down by segment. High net worth segment costs were up 5% year on year, reflecting front office investment.

Speaker 1

The affluent segment increased costs by 3%, primarily reflecting higher staff compensation, partially offset by simplification benefits. As I look forward, I'd expect 2025 costs of around million, reflecting higher FSCS and national insurance charges, as well as the investments that Stephen spoke about earlier, which I'm confident will drive growth in revenue and profits. Simplification plans will reduce run rate costs by around million this year, although I expect that benefit to be back end loaded. So the main contribution from simplification in 2025 will be the difference between the run rates and in year level of cost savings in 2024. And of course, overall costs could be potentially a little higher if the revenue environment is stronger and vice versa if markets are more challenging.

Speaker 1

So putting the segment revenues and group costs together, this slide shows the strong segmental contribution to group profitability. High net worth delivered profit of £48,000,000 up 17% and affluent profits rose 19% to £148,000,000 Operating margin increased by two percentage points in high net worth to twenty one percent and three percentage points in affluent to 35%. Now let me turn to the balance sheet. As you'd expect, we've maintained a strong solvency ratio and cash position. I've set out the usual graphical walk showing the major movements in the Solvency II ratio and cash positions.

Speaker 1

The year end solvency ratio reduced over the year with the decline largely due to the ongoing advice remediation provision, markets and acquisitions, which we have already talked about. In terms of cash, as you can see, we've got around £400,000,000 of cash available in the center after payment of the final dividend. You'll note that remittances were particularly high last year. That includes upstreaming of the GBP 80,000,000 capital benefit from the change in Solvency II rules that we called out this time last year. The full year dividend and the remaining simplification costs will absorb around million.

Speaker 1

That leaves us with a good buffer to cover the remediation provision, capital requirements, contingencies, liquidity management and business investments, while retaining balance sheet optionality. With our balance sheet in good shape, once the ongoing advice review has progressed further, the Board will undertake a full review of our capital requirements and capital allocation priorities. The Board has declared a final dividend of 4.2p per share, which together with the interim dividend of 1.7p takes the total dividend for the year to 5.9p. This is a year on year increase of 13%, broadly in line with the increase in EPS. The payout ratio was 59%, roughly in the middle of our 50% to 70% target range.

Speaker 1

Let me now say a few words about how we are thinking about the P and L in 2025. In terms of revenues, there's the compounding of AUMA from flows and markets, which at current market levels would lift AUMA by around £10,000,000,000 year on year. And there will obviously be headwinds from lower interest rates. Each 25 basis point cut reduces income by around £4,000,000 on an annualized basis. I've already discussed the items that will push costs up.

Speaker 1

So when you put all of that together and assuming current market and interest rate expectations are broadly maintained, I'd expect mid to high single digit profit growth this year before an acceleration in 2026. Let me take a step back to conclude. While there's no such thing as a normal year or normal markets, our results in 2024 demonstrate the shape of what we are building and what our medium term financial model looks like at Quilter. Around 5% growth in AUMA from flows each year, with a similar contribution from markets, giving around 10% growth in asset base, then allowing for normal margin attrition, partly from targeted action, should lead to a mid to high single digit percent growth in revenues. And you could expect our traditional cost discipline to manage expenses to deliver positive jaws.

Speaker 1

That should lead to a steady compounding of earnings at a strong growth rate over time. That's what we delivered in 2024 with 17% profit growth. Although from what I said earlier, you can conclude that 2025 is unlikely to be quite as strong. The right hand side of this slide fine tunes our existing guidance. Assuming no significant geopolitical shocks, we expect a constructive operating environment this year.

Speaker 1

As I see it, we're starting to see the potential power of the Quilter engine, though there's a bit more to be done to get us firing perfectly on all cylinders. And with that, let me hand back to Stephen.

Operator

Thank you, Mark. So let me summarize. We're really pleased with our performance in 2024. Flows, revenue and profit all moved sharply in the right direction. Strategically, we're in great shape.

Operator

The four key messages I'd like to leave you with are: We offer structural growth as a large scale player in an attractive and fragmented U. K. Wealth management market. We've got great differentiated dual channel distribution that delivered significant improvement in flows in 2024. And we can still do better.

Operator

We believe the whole group will deliver net flows around the 5% figure on average over time. And our medium term aim is to sustainably operate above our 30% operating margin target, while continuing to invest in our business. We're building a business that's fit to deliver on the significant opportunities that we see ahead and I'm usually excited by that. Right. Let's open up for questions.

Operator

Andy?

Speaker 2

Thank you very much. Three for me as usual, please. First, just on that 80,000,000 upstream, should I just think about that as broadly being what will be used to some extent to pay for the advice provision? Should we think of them as broadly as a wash? Second, advisor headcounts, well done a wee bit of growth in H2, possibly even better on the academy actually.

Speaker 2

The 160 in the academy now, should we think about around two thirds of those becoming RFPs in 2025? It looks like that was about the run rate 2023 and 2024. Is that the right way to think about it? And I guess, should that lead to some faster adviser headcount growth overall in 'twenty five? And then third was just you mentioned thinking about uses of excess capital as clarity emerges on the provision.

Speaker 2

How do you think about debt reduction in that discussion as well? I know you've got some slightly more expensive debt on the balance sheet. Does that come into the thinking for uses of excess capital?

Operator

Thanks. I'll take the second question and I'll let Mark answer all the capital and numbers ones. So just on the adviser headcount, the yes, I think you're right that it's probably around two thirds of the advisers who are in the academies should drop through into RFPs. I mean, not everyone completes the program, so there is a dropout rate for that. And then not all the advisers become RFPs.

Operator

And stuff. So that explains that sort of one third ish difference. So that is what and we are investing in our academy. We're investing in recruitment. Advisor numbers are important.

Operator

As I've said as well, adviser productivity is very important, and it is the combination of those two that we look to manage.

Speaker 1

Andy, you can think about the AT upstreaming as offsetting the provision, if you'd like. We'd rather be retaining the AT upstreaming rather than having to have a provision, but it's up to you. But that is one way of looking at it and I think some people have mentioned that previously. On capital and debt reduction, the debts that we have in place is a ten year with a five core option. So it's kind of term defined.

Speaker 1

We'd actually pay quite a high premium to actually exit that because it effectively we need to reimburse the interest that people would have earned over the period anyway and stuff like that. So it will probably feature in my discussions with the board. But given that I think we still got three years or so to run on that, it's more probably of a medium term consideration rather than a shorter term consideration.

Speaker 2

Thank you very much.

Operator

We'll hand you, James.

Speaker 3

Hi, morning. James from Pammule Liberum. Three if I can. In terms of the ongoing advice provision, what percentage of clients review during that were assessed to potentially be owed redress? Second question, growth in advice numbers in H2 despite the ongoing advice review and despite taking longer to onboard new advisors presumably, what's the pipeline looking like ex the academy?

Speaker 3

And then finally, just in terms of the advisor productivity, what do you see as a steady state advisor productivity number where you strike the balance between productivity in terms of flows, but also providing a good service to those clients?

Operator

So yes, thanks, Jim. So in terms of the ongoing advice, as I said, we've I'm not going to go into any more detail on any of the numbers today. We've set aside what we believe is the appropriate amount as a provision. There is still some work to complete, but we are confident that the number we set aside is the appropriate amount. In terms of the question on growth in advisor numbers and the pipeline, we have got a good pipeline of recruitment, and we are working on that.

Operator

I think we also see advisers retiring. We've got a very strong retirement program now, which is better than we had in the past where advisers can retire and transfer their clients on to other advisors who've got capacity. So advisor numbers is quite a complicated thing, and you look at it in a nuanced way because if an advisor retires and hands their client bank on to someone else in the network, the advisor numbers will actually go down, but Pro Tip will go up, as an example and things. And we wouldn't be averse to that. And that may often hand the client base over to younger advisers, got more energy and can drive it to service the clients and find more opportunities.

Operator

So there is that. And it is obviously a market still with a whole lot of consolidation going on. So we're cautious as to managing the adviser numbers. But obviously, we are investing in both the academy and in our recruitment. So yes, I would agree with most of your comments.

Operator

In terms of adviser productivity, I think that so one part of your question I don't agree with. I mean, our adviser productivity is not about I'm not concerned that advisers are going to be giving less service to their clients. Advisors have an obligation to provide ongoing service and that is Sacrosanct. There is no option to not do that. And certainly, we don't think that advisers are at the stage where they're taking on too many clients and therefore not doing it.

Operator

I think the issue with adviser productivity is some of the systems that advisers use make the advice process more time consuming than it needs to be. That's why we've got our advice transformation program, which we say will take a few more years yet. But we see a lot of upside in that in improving the productivity of advisers and allowing them to serve more clients, but to serve more clients appropriately, of course. The other thing about the adviser productivity and the way we disclose it is there is a bit of a market level in that. So because a large part of the business that advises rights transfers of existing pension assets, so if markets are 10% higher, you can get a 10% or probably a 5% improvement because about half, 60% of the business probably transfers.

Operator

You could probably get an improvement in productivity from market effects and that can go vice versa as well. So just to understand that there can be sort of ups and downs in advisor productivity in the measure there because of market levels. But we still think there is potential to drive advisor productivity up in terms of advisors serving more clients with better technology and better efficiency. Yes, at the back. Sorry, Rheem, may I help?

Speaker 4

Good morning. It's Raheem Karim from Investec. Three questions for me as well, if I may. The first was just with respect to your comments on net flows. You reiterated a number of times 4% to 5%, but then talked about how you were running well ahead of that.

Speaker 4

So just was hoping if you could help us square that circle and whether that's just a level of prudence that you want us to take away and that you would hope to outperform that or if I've necessarily missed something. The second question was just regarding the strong improvements in market share that the platform has seen over the last twelve months or so. It's something to be congratulated. I was wondering if you had a view on where that might max out or whether consolidation in that space might mean that there's still a lot of room for you to run-in terms of your market share, both of stock and flows. And then the third question was just around capital allocation framework.

Speaker 4

You talked about bolt on acquisitions. I was wondering if you can might allude a little bit to the areas that you were thinking about with respect to the various parts of the business.

Operator

Okay. Thanks. Thank you. So the 4% to 5% is a number that we've talked about as through the cycle. So if you look at the fourth quarter of last year, we actually delivered net flows at 7%.

Operator

So we are not trying to say that 5% is the cap. In fact, I would in very strong markets and good flow environments, we would expect us to be above that. We're talking about through the cycle. It is obviously also difficult to forecast what sort of market we're going to see long term. We are very bullish on the demographics in this market.

Operator

There is too much savings. There is a huge amount of excess cash sitting in savings in The U. K. Environment. And we believe that customers can and will invest that and there's a lot of initiatives focused around that.

Operator

So actually, there is a very strong sort of tailwinds on some of the growth metrics. So that's all we're talking about. It is a through the cycle number. In terms of the market share improvements, yes, we've had very strong market share improvements in the IFA space. There has been hard work over the last three years, and we're very proud about that.

Operator

I think we do believe that there is still more roads to go. I think the pace at which we have sort of captured market share is likely to slow because I don't think that pace can sort of be necessarily sustained forever. And you're right, the consolidation may actually help and support that, but we think there is still more room to go. But actually, what we the other way we think about it, sort of linking back to what I said a moment ago, because we have a view that the size of the pie is going to increase quite significantly as well over the years. We think the platform market is going to continue to grow.

Operator

We think there's going to be more investments coming out of savings and going into longer term investments. Interest rates are coming down. There is a lot of excess cash in the system. We think that our market share that we have gained places us in a very strong position to deliver strong net flows as we start seeing even stronger platform years that we believe we will see in the years ahead. And on the final question on capital allocation, I'll let Mark.

Speaker 1

Yes. Raheem, the view on that hasn't changed a whole lot. It's primarily probably in three areas, two of which are in distribution, both in DFM and advice space, small acquisitions, some of the capital is also set aside to help fund practice buyout loans, management buyout loans, those sorts of things. But that's where we see a lot of the activity that we've historically done in that area. And the third area is sort of complementary digital and other capabilities.

Speaker 1

And we've seen the acquisition of New Wealth last year as an example of that. None of these are really sort of massive investment amounts for each investment we make, but the small ones all add up and we've been doing quite a few of those over the course of the last year.

Speaker 5

Thanks very much. It's Andy Lowe from Citi. Your guidance talks about sort of long term further increases in the operating profit margin. So I was just curious if we were to allocate your costs across each of your divisions where you see the biggest opportunity across those three divisions. And then the second question was just on the new wealth proposition.

Speaker 5

I'm just curious, it's obviously a new thing for you. How developed do you think competing offerings are across your peer group? And is this the case that everyone's been holding back a bit until we get more clarity on the regulation and therefore you're sort of competing in a sort of similar development stage to others on that product?

Speaker 1

Should I talk about operating margin first? So I see it coming across both segments. We put out I put out some slides over there talking about the affluent and the high net worth operating margin. High net worth is at 21% at the moment. I think a DFM sort of structured business should be in the mid-20s and that's what we target in there.

Speaker 1

And in the affluent space, I think 35% is kind of a decent starting point. I think it can improve from there. The affluent part of the business is where you have the most operating leverage. So the platform, as well as the fund management business within Quilter investors is where the incremental pound cost to manage more assets is at its lowest. And that is where you should expect the most sort of expansion to take place.

Speaker 1

So personally I see the margin improvement coming in both segments, but with the affluent segments having greater capacity for expansion.

Operator

Other questions?

Speaker 1

None other from There was a second question on that.

Operator

Sorry, yes, apologies. Yes, New Wealth. Sorry, Andy. So yes, on New Wealth, I think in terms of the proposition, I think it's a good proposition. There's not a lot of other players who are looking to do to use digital offerings to support advisors like we are to help them incubate younger clients, which I think is something we're very excited about, but I'm sure others may try.

Operator

I think a lot of companies will be looking to how they can make use of the advice guidance boundary opportunities that come. I mean, we are involved in sandbox work with the FCA on that and things like that. So there's a lot of firms are working on what the opportunities are. It's something we are excited about. But we do think that we've got some good ideas and we are investing accordingly.

Operator

Should we go to the lines? No questions on lines?

Speaker 1

Andy's got another one.

Operator

Okay. We'll get Andy first, yes. Okay.

Speaker 2

Andy Sinclair from Bank of America again. Just when you're looking at the excess capital in time, how do you feel about the dividend payout ratio? Is that something that could be reviewed as well? Or do you think that is the right number for the longer term? Second was just after the inheritance tax changes for pensions in the budget, there's been a bit of chatter that maybe life insurance protection products could become more prevalent.

Speaker 2

Would you consider using your balance sheet to write any of those sorts of products? Or is that something that's just of no interest? Those two are fine for me. Thanks.

Operator

All right. I'll take the second question and I'll let Mark talk about dividend. In terms of the IHT changes, I think that has increased certainly the need for advice. We're seeing our advisors getting a lot more engagement from clients about how to manage inheritance tax. There are a range of options.

Operator

I mean, our bond product, for example, is doing very well, and that is that has some uses. Trusts, we have a very sophisticated trust range as well. In terms of pure protection, it is not currently our focus to write protection business. We do advise on protection business and we have a panel of protection providers that our advisors use.

Speaker 1

Andy, on the second, I think that probably will feature it's probably not a highlight feature, but I think it will feature. I'm expecting that when I go through this with the Board that we'll be looking at the different uses of capital, what we see the opportunities are down the line, how we might deploy it for reinvestments in the business, etcetera, etcetera. And clearly, the dividend payout policy or payout ratio will feature within that. But I'm not expecting to be at this stage at any rate to be headlining with that.

Speaker 6

Okay. There's two questions on the web. The first is from Greg Simpson at BNP Paribas. Firstly, asking for three questions. Firstly, do you think there is room to improve adviser productivity from the 3,200,000.0 given how this has improved over time?

Speaker 6

Secondly, asking about the quantum of back book transfers still remaining to go for. And thirdly, asking about platform flows, noting that one of our platform peers yesterday talked about an ambition to turn their outflows into inflows and made a decent fee cut recently. What is your confidence on keeping the current good market share trends can be sustained?

Operator

All right. Thank you very much. In terms of the advisory productivity, I think I've probably already commented on that question. We had it from a similar question from the room. We do believe there is still scope to increase advisor productivity, but we're not going to give a forecast for a number or anything like that.

Operator

In terms of the back book transfers, we believe that there is still north of GBP 5,000,000,000 of back book that our advisers advise on that is addressable. So we are confident that we can deliver similar numbers to what we delivered this year and last year for the next few years. And actually, obviously, as you recruit new advisors into the business, especially new experienced advisors, they obviously will bring their own sort of back books with them type thing. So the opportunity can be continuously refreshed as you bring in new advisers. And then on the final question about platform flows and pricing and other behavior stuff like that.

Operator

Our platform is very competitively priced. We obviously look at what changes and what pricing is out there in the market, and we're very comfortable that our platform is incredibly is very well priced and delivers exceptional value. In terms of the market share, I think one of the points that's the side that we showed, which shows where we get our flows from, you can see that we get our flows. We get net inflows from a large number of platforms. It's not concentrated to any one particular source.

Operator

So that is what I think is helpful to know. It is also it takes it's hard work to win over IFAs and to get them to be new supporters or to move them from a tertiary to secondary or to primary platform. And they're not looking to sort of to change that every month. So actually, once you've gained a strong position of share, actually it is it's a good position to be in. We can't rest on our laurels at all, and we certainly don't and won't.

Operator

But we're very pleased with the position that we have.

Speaker 6

One more question from Alex Bowers at Berenberg on MPS solutions. He says, firstly, he notes that the market has grown as Avaya have adopted. He's asking once that's got to a saturated position, how well it's called to place to pick up market share from other MPS competitors. And secondly, he asked, the FCA has announced they will start a multi firm review of MPS looking at firms or how firms apply consumer duty, our quarter involved in this review and what are your thoughts on this review?

Operator

So thank you for those questions. I think that our MPS offering, we are sort of the biggestsecond biggest at sort of 1,900,000,000,000. It has got phenomenal performance and a very long term consistent track record. We have only recently added MPS to our MPS, Wealth Select in particular to other platforms. Our QCMPS has been on other platforms for some time.

Operator

Between our two MPS offerings, we think that there is still significant opportunity because there are obviously assets of advisors who already use WellSelect on our platform, but have assets on other platforms. I'd love them to move all their assets to us, but IFAs don't always do that. So the fact that our WealthSelect is now available on some third party platforms as well, that and there are assets there that are from advisors who already use WealthSelect, know it well, like it, etcetera. So that gives us opportunity for growth that we haven't historically sort of consumer duty and the FCA review, we welcome the FCA review. I think that is an important thing to do.

Operator

MPS has grown very significantly. There's a large number of people providing MPS services of different sizes and scale. We have got a very significant team, front office team, risk management functions, capabilities, all sorts of things, research investment due diligence, operational due diligence of the managers we have. I'm not sure that everyone out there in the industry is at that level, but it is such an important solution. I think what the FCA is doing makes absolute sense.

Operator

And we that has only just been announced in the last few days that it is on the FCA's roadmap. So I don't think it's formally kicked off yet.

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Earnings Conference Call
Quilter H2 2024
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