Pinnacle Financial Partners Q1 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

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April 15, 2025
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Operator

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the Pinnacle Financial Partners Quarter twenty twenty five Earnings Conference Call. Hosting the call today from Pinnacle Financial Partners is Mr. Terry Turner, Chief Executive Officer and Mr. Harold Carpenter, Chief Financial Officer. Please note Pinnacle's earnings release and this morning's presentation are available on the Investor Relations page of their website at www.pnfp.com.

Operator

Today's call is being recorded and will be available for replay on Pinnacle Financial's website for the next ninety days. At this time, all participants have been placed on a listen only mode. The floor will be open for your questions following the presentation. Call. During this presentation, we may make comments that may constitute forward looking statements.

Operator

All forward looking statements are subject to risks, uncertainties and other facts that may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of Pinnacle Financial to differ materially from any results expressed or implied by such forward looking statements. Many of such factors are beyond Pinnacle Financial's ability to control or predict, and listeners are cautioned not to put undue reliance on such forward looking statements. A more detailed description of these and other risks is contained in Pinnacle Financial's annual report on Form 10 ks for the year ended 12/31/2024, and its subsequently filed quarterly reports. Pinnacle Financial disclaims any obligation to update or revise any forward looking statements contained in this presentation, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. In addition, these remarks may include certain non GAAP financial measures as defined by SEC Regulation G.

Operator

A presentation of the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures and a reconciliation of the non GAAP measures to the comparable GAAP measures will be made available on Pinnacle Financial's website at www.pnfp.com. With that, I'm now going to turn the presentation over to Mr. Terry Turner, Pinnacle's President and CEO.

Terry Turner
Terry Turner
President & CEO at Pinnacle Financial Partners

Thank you, Matt. Good morning. Well, I know it's not news to anyone on this call this morning that we're living in a time of unusual volatility and periods of volatility generally have the impact of slowing economic growth and damaging bank performance. But irrespective of the environment, as most of you know, at Pinnacle we've got a relentless focus on producing shareholder value. It's why we begin every call with this shareholder value dashboard, GAAP measures first, then quickly to the adjusted numbers to give you the best insight into how we see the numbers and how we manage the firm.

Terry Turner
Terry Turner
President & CEO at Pinnacle Financial Partners

Anyone that has ever listened to these calls knows and expects that I'm going to particularly highlight revenue growth, EPS growth, and tangible book value per share growth, the three metrics that we believe are most highly correlated with long term shareholder returns. As you can see here regarding revenue growth first quarter twenty five was another great quarter continuing the double digit trajectory. Not only have we had a 10.1% CAGR over the last four years, but a 14.2% growth rate first quarter twenty five over first quarter twenty four. The industry had a two year downdraft on EPS for a number of reasons, including limited loan demand and a downward slope yield curve. Despite difficult operating environment you can see here that our adjusted EPS grew 24.2% first quarter twenty five over first quarter twenty four.

Terry Turner
Terry Turner
President & CEO at Pinnacle Financial Partners

And lastly, through it all we've compounded tangible book value per share at a 10.3% rate over the last four years and 10.6% first quarter twenty five over first quarter twenty four. So I think at least three questions come to mind about our unusual ability to grow these metrics that I believe are most highly correlated with shareholder returns almost irrespective of the economic landscape. Number one, how do we grow so reliably when the industry appears to not? Number two, is it a high risk strategy? And number three, is it sustainable?

Terry Turner
Terry Turner
President & CEO at Pinnacle Financial Partners

The answer to all three of those is centered in our hedgehog strategy, which is to continuously attract the best bankers in the market and to enable them to consolidate their books of business from where they were to Pinnacle. We run a continuous recruitment cycle for revenue producers, which is different from most competitors and peers who generally constrain the hiring of revenue producers in an attempt to constrain non interest expense growth. We are always recruiting and hiring the best bankers in our market, not just when we have an opening. And why wouldn't you? The profit leverage on even an average producer is extraordinary.

Terry Turner
Terry Turner
President & CEO at Pinnacle Financial Partners

Another critical distinction in our model is that we don't hire these revenue producers if they're circulating a resume or they come in to fill out an application. Our assumption is that they're either unhappy or unsuccessful and therefore not a target for us. We don't use headhunters to hire these revenue producers. They tend to produce talent that hop from job to job for the next best offer. In general the only way a revenue producer will be hired at Pinnacle is that a current Pinnacle associate says first of all I've worked with them before and they're good at what they do, And secondly that they share our values.

Terry Turner
Terry Turner
President & CEO at Pinnacle Financial Partners

They'll fit. This distinct recruitment model provides insight into both how we're able to hire so many and how we consistently get outsized performance from those that we hire. I've used this call in the past to highlight how all of this bears on growth, and so I don't want to do that in detail on this call. But as a quick reminder at a very high level you might think about it this way. We hire a large number of highly experienced revenue producers every year.

Terry Turner
Terry Turner
President & CEO at Pinnacle Financial Partners

On average it takes them roughly four years to consolidate their clients to Pinnacle and the growth comes in on a roughly straight line basis. This is a market share takeaway strategy that's not meaningfully reliant on economic growth. As new RMs consolidate their long standing clients to Pinnacle over that roughly four year period, it forms an embedded level of growth in clients and balance sheet volumes which are almost entirely removed from economic growth rates. As you can see here that ability to attract revenue producers has been successful in our legacy footprint, in our areas of specialization that we've added over the years, and in de novo market extensions. Last year we set a new firm record for the number of highly experienced revenue producers that joined our firm and we're on a similar track for this year.

Terry Turner
Terry Turner
President & CEO at Pinnacle Financial Partners

37 revenue producers in first quarter twenty four versus thirty three first quarter twenty five. Revenue producers that have been with our firm less than three years accounted for all of our growth in first quarter twenty five. The same was true for all of '24. It only makes sense to me that periods of low or no economic loan demand relationship managers with large books will be lucky to originate enough volume to just cover their amortization. Generally the bigger the book the bigger the headwind.

Terry Turner
Terry Turner
President & CEO at Pinnacle Financial Partners

Additionally in our case specifically, we made a strategic choice roughly two years ago to lower our concentration in commercial real estate, which has also served as a drag on the legacy markets. But net net, this ability to continuously attract highly experienced lenders and enable them to consolidate their clients to Pinnacle answers the question how we grow so reliably. Is it safe? We believe our track record demonstrates that it is. The average years of experience for the associates we hire when we hire them is eighteen years.

Terry Turner
Terry Turner
President & CEO at Pinnacle Financial Partners

So if you think about it, when you hire revenue producers that may have been handling clients nearly two decades, two things happen. Number one, you get rapid growth. You'd fully expect that the rate at which they bring loan volumes would be substantially faster than RMs that you give a Dun and Bradstreet list of prospects to and ask them to go meet someone to loan money. And in general, number two, you get great loan quality. It's the opposite adverse selection.

Terry Turner
Terry Turner
President & CEO at Pinnacle Financial Partners

They're bringing their clients with whom they're well familiar. They leave criticized and classified loans behind, bringing only their best clients, again substantially less risky than giving them a Dun and Bradstreet list of prospects, which is what most banks do. So this model not only produces rapid and remarkably reliable growth, but high quality growth as well. These charts serve as a further demonstration of the reliability of our growth almost irrespective of the economic environment. On the left from the Great Recession through 2022, our growth in total loans was nearly three times The U.

Terry Turner
Terry Turner
President & CEO at Pinnacle Financial Partners

S. Commercial banks and was more than two times that of our peers, a remarkable difference in a period that included such catastrophes as the COVID pandemic. And on the right you can see the quarterly year over year growth comparisons for total loans from first quarter twenty three through fourth quarter twenty four, which included a liquidity crisis that literally caused some of our peers to fail. For me this is a great illustration of how the continuous attraction of highly experienced relationship managers who consolidate their clients to Pinnacle has provided something of an underlying floor for loan growth even during periods of virtually no economic loan demand. I also want to point out on the chart on the right that we added a line for C and I loan growth as well.

Terry Turner
Terry Turner
President & CEO at Pinnacle Financial Partners

As I've already mentioned, total loans have actually endured a downdraft as we shrank our concentration of commercial real estate. So the C and I growth may be an even better illustration of the rapid reliable growth produced by this model. And as it relates to sustainability of course one of the keys to talent attraction is our unique work environment. Just in the last couple of weeks we were listed by Fortune magazine as the ninth best workplace in America, up from number 11 last year. Many have conjectured that as we grow we'll no longer be able to propel our culture and work environment causing a reversion to the mean for our growth rates.

Terry Turner
Terry Turner
President & CEO at Pinnacle Financial Partners

This year's ranking is our best yet, as was the case last year by the way, which pretty well debunked the thesis that we cannot maintain our special sauce as we grow. And of course while the power of our ability to attract the best talent accounts for a great deal of the success that we've had, The truth is an equally important key to our success is the differentiated service level that we offer clients compared to client satisfaction with our competitors. According to Coalition Greenwich there are 21 drivers of client satisfaction among businesses with annual sales from 1,000,000 to $500,000,000. In our eight state footprint, we lead on all 21 of those drivers, every single one of them. The experience is overwhelmingly differentiated and that feels like a sustainable competitive advantage.

Terry Turner
Terry Turner
President & CEO at Pinnacle Financial Partners

So without a doubt my preference would be for a less volatile environment as I'm sure is the case for everyone on this call. But that said, even in this more volatile environment given how we grow, we continue to expect client balance sheet growth for 2025 consistent with our prior guidance. With that let me turn it over to Harold for a more detailed look at the quarter.

Harold Carpenter
Harold Carpenter
CFO at Pinnacle Financial Partners

Thanks Terry. Good morning everybody. As you may have already concluded we've reduced the number of slides in the prepared remarks portion of the deck this morning. All the slides I've traditionally discussed with you are in the supplemental portion of the deck. Our goal is to quicken the pace and point out the highlights and get to your questions.

Harold Carpenter
Harold Carpenter
CFO at Pinnacle Financial Partners

We'll start with loans. In the period loans increased 7.3% linked quarter annualized. That was about what we thought at the beginning of the quarter. As Terry mentioned, we continue to lean on our new markets and our recruits to provide the punch in loan growth for us. Again, our loan growth is not so much dependent on economic tailwinds.

Harold Carpenter
Harold Carpenter
CFO at Pinnacle Financial Partners

It's all about these great bankers we've hired and the movement of their prior relationships to us. There's a ton of uncertainty right now in the broader economy, and we've had many conversations with our relationship managers about pipeline development over the course of the next few quarters. Our clients have a lot of the same uncertainties that the rest of us are wrestling with, but appear to remain generally confident about the future and that eventually all of this will translate into stronger, more resilient economy for all of us. When that will happen is certainly something folks are debating intensely. Given first quarter impact in our pipelines, we'll stay with our estimated outlook at 8% to 11% growth this year.

Harold Carpenter
Harold Carpenter
CFO at Pinnacle Financial Partners

The yield curve bounced around a lot in the first quarter and continues to do so as we begin the second quarter. But in the end, we're pleased with how our loan rates performed through the quarter. Although the lift from fixed rate repricing is not as opportunistic as it once was, we still anticipate continued lift in fixed rate loan rates throughout this year. Deposit growth was again a real bright spot for us in the first quarter as we increased deposits by $1,600,000,000 in the first quarter. This is after 1,900,000,000 increase last quarter.

Harold Carpenter
Harold Carpenter
CFO at Pinnacle Financial Partners

Contributing to outsized growth were our investments in our deposit verticals as well as the work of our new associates in several of our newer markets. As of 2025, we're maintaining our estimated growth rate for total deposits at 7% to 10% for 2025. We believe this is reasonable given our performance in the first quarter. We don't anticipate similar growth in the second quarter as the second quarter may be our toughest deposit growth quarter given that we believe some run up occurred at March 31 for taxes. We're also very pleased with how deposit pricing has performed thus far this year and how our deposit how both our deposit and loan betas have performed thus far through the cycle.

Harold Carpenter
Harold Carpenter
CFO at Pinnacle Financial Partners

The chart on the top right of the slide shows that during the upright cycle from the end of twenty one to the June '24, our loan rates increased with a 59% beta, while over the last six months or so as rates have come down, our loan rates have decreased with a 42% beta. All the while our deposit beta is at 56%, which is the same as what transpired during the upright cycle. So far so good for both loans and deposits. As expected, we're pleased that our NIM was flattish at 3.21%. Our outlook for the second quarter of twenty twenty five is that we believe our NIM will remain flattish with some upward bias.

Harold Carpenter
Harold Carpenter
CFO at Pinnacle Financial Partners

As to net interest income, we are estimating welcome lift in the second quarter given we have an additional day, but also increased volumes, which should support our estimate for more revenues. As to 2025, we believe our net interest income growth outlook will continue to approximate a range of 11% to 13%. And again, the slope of the yield curve will have significant influence on how all this plays out for the remainder of this year. So what's up with rate cuts? We've modeled out many scenarios and feel we're in pretty good shape to manage through most rate forecasts that are out there in the markets today.

Harold Carpenter
Harold Carpenter
CFO at Pinnacle Financial Partners

We have constructed our base case outlook around two rate cuts for this year. If there's more rate cuts, we feel we have enough flexibility to modify our game plan and given rates are still elevated from just a few years ago, the ability to match off the impact from lower asset yields with similar actions on our funding base. A quick word on credit. Our net charge offs dropped to 16 basis points in the second quarter from 24 basis points in the fourth quarter. For 2025, the current view of our charge off outlook remains that net charge offs for 2025 should come in around 16 to 20 basis points.

Harold Carpenter
Harold Carpenter
CFO at Pinnacle Financial Partners

So no change there from last quarter. We did downgrade an apartment loan in Atlanta with around 90 to 95% occupancy, which was the reason our NPAs ticked up this quarter. That project is in process of being marketed and we feel like we're in good shape with this 35,000,000 loan with an anticipated loss already accounted for in the reserve. Our belief is that resolution should occur over the next couple of quarters. Our reserves did decrease one basis point, which we thought was possible given our position at the end of the fourth quarter and if credit continued to perform well.

Harold Carpenter
Harold Carpenter
CFO at Pinnacle Financial Partners

We still believe our reserve will remain at or near these levels for the remainder of 2025 if the economic conditions don't materially deteriorate from those we are anticipating. That said, we don't want to appear tone deaf. Our credit officers are working their portfolios trying to understand what tariffs or a protracted trade war could do to our portfolio. We have our eyes on several portfolios trying to appreciate which ones might feel more stressed perhaps more sooner than others. Our outlook for our provision to average loans remains at 24 to 27 basis points for this year.

Harold Carpenter
Harold Carpenter
CFO at Pinnacle Financial Partners

We are assuming here that we don't find our way to accommodate some significant increase in forecasted unemployment like we did during COVID only to see the impact of that reverse the next year, which could drive this range up. We do believe a modest increase in unemployment is manageable given our sensitivity analysis. As to BHG, all of the usual slides are in the supplementals for your reference. BHG had a strong quarter providing fee revenues to us of over $20,000,000 which was more than the $12,100,000 in the fourth quarter and more than we had previously estimated would be the case. BHG closed its tenth ABS issuance in the first quarter for approximately $400,000,000 Spreads on this issuance were 12.6% which was the strongest of any issuance for BHG.

Harold Carpenter
Harold Carpenter
CFO at Pinnacle Financial Partners

Wall Street continues to acquire BHG Credit with increased appetite for its volumes. Production was strong in the first quarter. Credit was better than anticipated with past dues continued to improve. Vintage loss curves also seem to signal better days ahead. We and BHG are both comfortable in raising our earnings estimates for 2025 from 10% growth to 20% growth over 2024.

Harold Carpenter
Harold Carpenter
CFO at Pinnacle Financial Partners

Several factors are contributing to this decision. Lower operating costs this year, better credit performance, and stronger production lead flow along with better hit rates all point to what could be a much stronger year for BHG. Lastly, as to our guide for 2024, we've talked about much of the information on this slide previously. Again, the investments we've made in our new markets and our hiring success are the building blocks we will lean on as we target top quartile results amongst our peers, which we believe this guide should point toward. Other than BHG, we must spend a lot of time this morning on fees or expenses thus far.

Harold Carpenter
Harold Carpenter
CFO at Pinnacle Financial Partners

As to highlights, we continue to be pleased in our fee line. Banking fees and wealth management are performing quite well. We're keeping a cautious eye on wealth management given the market performance and how that might impact our revenue targets this year, but feel like currently the range provided is reasonable. As the chart indicates, remain comfortable with an 8% to 10% growth rate in fees inclusive of VSGs increased to 20% growth this year. We also restructured about 189,000,000 of our investment securities at a loss of approximately $12,500,000 This trade met our criteria of an expected three year payback.

Harold Carpenter
Harold Carpenter
CFO at Pinnacle Financial Partners

Thus, we anticipate the restructuring should add approximately $1,000,000 of spread revenues to us per quarter. As to expenses, our outlook does reflect the target award for our associates. And as always, should our performance warrant, we will increase the award if our earnings support any additional incentive costs. We remain at $1,300,000 to $1,150,000 as estimated expenses for this year. As the tariff discussion plays out, as the recession discussion plays out, as the yield curve and rate cut discussions play out, we are hopeful that more clarity will come forth.

Harold Carpenter
Harold Carpenter
CFO at Pinnacle Financial Partners

But as it sits today, we remain optimistic about our prospects for this year and are confident that 2025 should be another strong year for Pinnacle. With that, I will send it back to Matt for Q and A.

Operator

Thank you, Mr. Turner. Everyone, the floor is now open for your questions. Your first question is coming from Jared Shaw from Barclays Capital. Your line is live.

Jared Shaw
Jared Shaw
Managing Director at Barclays

Hey, good morning guys.

Terry Turner
Terry Turner
President & CEO at Pinnacle Financial Partners

Good morning.

Harold Carpenter
Harold Carpenter
CFO at Pinnacle Financial Partners

Hi, Jared.

Jared Shaw
Jared Shaw
Managing Director at Barclays

Hey. So maybe just the first, I appreciate the discussion around the uncertainty here. Did you change the baseline assumption under CECL for calculating the reserves? Did you go to an adverse scenario or are you just keeping it unchanged?

Harold Carpenter
Harold Carpenter
CFO at Pinnacle Financial Partners

We kept it unchanged, but we used the adverse scenario to kind of influence where a lot of our qualitative assumptions go. So but no, we did keep it the same with the baseline.

Jared Shaw
Jared Shaw
Managing Director at Barclays

Okay. And then on BHG, that's great quarter there with the securitization. It feels like the securitization market's a little locked up right now. Is that growth or that higher target dependent on continued securitizations? Or is there a flexibility there that they can hold more through the or they can place more through the bank sale channel?

Harold Carpenter
Harold Carpenter
CFO at Pinnacle Financial Partners

Oh, I think they have they have plenty of room through the bank channel. I think they do believe, like, there's another ABS issuance towards the end of the year that they're planning for. But at the end of the day, they've got capacity and liquidity in the bank channel to place their credits.

Jared Shaw
Jared Shaw
Managing Director at Barclays

Okay. And then just on the other fees, sort of where are we seeing the most offset to that higher BHG target? Is that in sort of the other equity investments?

Jared Shaw
Jared Shaw
Managing Director at Barclays

Where

Harold Carpenter
Harold Carpenter
CFO at Pinnacle Financial Partners

Yeah. I think the other equity investments has given us some pause that traditionally, we've gotten quite a bit of punch out of there that we probably need to back off on for the rest of the year, and I think BHG is going help us offset that.

Jared Shaw
Jared Shaw
Managing Director at Barclays

Okay. Great. Thanks a lot. I'll step back.

Terry Turner
Terry Turner
President & CEO at Pinnacle Financial Partners

Thanks, Jared.

Harold Carpenter
Harold Carpenter
CFO at Pinnacle Financial Partners

Thanks, Jared.

Operator

Thank you. Your next question is coming from Ben Gerlinger from Citi. Your line is live.

Ben Gerlinger
Ben Gerlinger
Vice President of Equity Research at Citigroup

Hey. Good morning, guys.

Harold Carpenter
Harold Carpenter
CFO at Pinnacle Financial Partners

Good morning, Dan.

Ben Gerlinger
Ben Gerlinger
Vice President of Equity Research at Citigroup

So

Ben Gerlinger
Ben Gerlinger
Vice President of Equity Research at Citigroup

when you guys look at the full year guide of unchanged for loan and deposits, well, first, congrats on those strong start to the year. I think, Harold, you said that deposits could slow a little bit here in 2Q. And I think you said you cited tax reasons.

Ben Gerlinger
Ben Gerlinger
Vice President of Equity Research at Citigroup

I just kind

Ben Gerlinger
Ben Gerlinger
Vice President of Equity Research at Citigroup

of think of like 1Q had really strong loan growth and even stronger deposit growth. Do think that will flip in 2Q or just kind of a seasonality? Or is pricing you're willing to let someone walk away? I I I get the loan side is strong because of, bankers added over time and the flywheel you guys create over twenty years. So that that makes makes sense

Ben Gerlinger
Ben Gerlinger
Vice President of Equity Research at Citigroup

to me. I'm just trying to think,

Ben Gerlinger
Ben Gerlinger
Vice President of Equity Research at Citigroup

like, the fits and starts you're expecting on the deposit side.

Harold Carpenter
Harold Carpenter
CFO at Pinnacle Financial Partners

Yeah. Traditionally, April has been a tough month as far as deposit growth is concerned, even for a commercial firm like ours. So we just we're hedging our bet a little bit from that perspective. And we do have, we believe, some advantage when it comes to deposit pricing given the growth over the last two quarters that we don't have to be nearly as front footed on making sure we get the growth here going into the into the second quarter. As to loans, we feel like that there is enough pipeline there for us to see similar growth in loans in the second quarter, if not just a tad more.

Harold Carpenter
Harold Carpenter
CFO at Pinnacle Financial Partners

And hopefully, you know, that'll transpire. Did I get to your question okay then?

Ben Gerlinger
Ben Gerlinger
Vice President of Equity Research at Citigroup

Yeah. That was helpful. And then just kinda thinking about loans and, like, and the pricing component of them relative to potential payoffs. Like, we've seen the yield curve be pretty crazy over day to day range so far this month. So I don't necessarily think there's a lot of payoff potential.

Ben Gerlinger
Ben Gerlinger
Vice President of Equity Research at Citigroup

But if we see the middle or the belly of the curve come in a little bit like a five year, do you think there's potential payoff headwinds on CRE, and do you still feel comfortable with the current range in that kind of scenario? I'm just trying to think through like, you guys have been more C and I growth lately to restepping into CRE. It should help, but legacy products are also terming out a little bit here too, so people might hit the bid if there is a refinance opportunity.

Harold Carpenter
Harold Carpenter
CFO at Pinnacle Financial Partners

Yeah. First off, you're right. If the five year does come in or the three year, that's where most of these loans are. So true, we could see some prepayments coming back to us. But hopefully, these clients will give us the opportunity to meet or at least stay in the game with them.

Harold Carpenter
Harold Carpenter
CFO at Pinnacle Financial Partners

So we're not as concerned about the volume aspect of it as perhaps maybe the pricing aspect of it.

Ben Gerlinger
Ben Gerlinger
Vice President of Equity Research at Citigroup

Got you. And if I could sneak one more in. BHG seems like it's an improvement relative to what might have been ninety days ago. Has the family or you guys changed any thoughts on the state of ownership?

Harold Carpenter
Harold Carpenter
CFO at Pinnacle Financial Partners

Oh, no. No. I think we're still in the same position we've been in as far as our 49%. Our partnership is strong with Al and Eric and his senior management group. So we're in good shape with BHG right now.

Harold Carpenter
Harold Carpenter
CFO at Pinnacle Financial Partners

There's a lot of optimism around that firm, and I think they believe that what's transpired with the '21 and 2020 vintages is hopefully in the rearview mirror.

Ben Gerlinger
Ben Gerlinger
Vice President of Equity Research at Citigroup

Appreciate it. Thanks, Chris.

Harold Carpenter
Harold Carpenter
CFO at Pinnacle Financial Partners

All right.

Terry Turner
Terry Turner
President & CEO at Pinnacle Financial Partners

Thanks, Ben.

Operator

Thank you. Your next question is coming from Kathryn Mealor from KBW. Your line is live.

Catherine Mealor
Managing Director - Equity Research at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods (KBW)

Thanks. Good morning.

Terry Turner
Terry Turner
President & CEO at Pinnacle Financial Partners

Good morning, Kathryn.

Catherine Mealor
Managing Director - Equity Research at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods (KBW)

I apologize if you addressed this in your prepared remarks, but, I just was curious if you could talk a little bit about Slide 20, which is the lines of credit that you give per loan type and just how you would expect those to move as we move through the year.

Harold Carpenter
Harold Carpenter
CFO at Pinnacle Financial Partners

Yeah. I'll start, and I'll let Terry kind of finish on that. I believe our basically, the way our clients approach lines of credit, and we saw a pretty big uptick in lines of credit in the first quarter, is that they will try to keep the and I'm talking about c and I and non owner occupied commercial real estate primarily, is they'll try to pretty much hang with about a 50% kind of usage rate, and they always like that number. So if a firm is gonna grow, they're probably gonna come back to us. And rather than just, you know, increase the usage amount of their line, they'll probably come back and just increase the line.

Harold Carpenter
Harold Carpenter
CFO at Pinnacle Financial Partners

Now what's going on, we've reopened on construction, and so we should see some more increases there with lines of credit provided rates remain, you know, in an acceptable place, particularly around the five year and the ten year.

Catherine Mealor
Managing Director - Equity Research at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods (KBW)

Great. So really the growth outlook that you have isn't there. This doesn't seem to be a change necessarily in how you're thinking about lines of credit. It's still customer bringing new customers over ramping up your new markets, your new revenue producers and it's all just still market share versus like a big line of credit change?

Terry Turner
Terry Turner
President & CEO at Pinnacle Financial Partners

Yeah I think that's accurate. Know to Harold's point you

Terry Turner
Terry Turner
President & CEO at Pinnacle Financial Partners

know the biggest component you sort

Terry Turner
Terry Turner
President & CEO at Pinnacle Financial Partners

of got two components that work a little differently. One CRE and he talked about that. The other C and I. Generally C and I financing you're financing working assets. And so what has to happen there is you have to you know start driving up the revenues and increasing inventories and receivables and those kinds of things.

Terry Turner
Terry Turner
President & CEO at Pinnacle Financial Partners

And so you know for me at this point it'd be hard to say okay well I feel like there's something I can identify here where that's going to be a lot better or a lot worse. And so again Harold made the point we'll be watching all these variables as we go forward. We'll get you know more information. But today, our belief about our growth and really I think what's an important thing that I wanted to get communicated was look what we're going to do is move market share and add clients, which ought to get us into the range of the growth that we said. If we get other economic growth, we'll do better.

Catherine Mealor
Managing Director - Equity Research at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods (KBW)

It. Okay. That makes sense. And then on the margin outlook, I know that originally you had talked about the margin being a little bit more stable in the first half of the year and then expanding in the second half of the year as we get some cuts. Can you just talk a little bit about kind of sensitivity to that with the rate environment?

Catherine Mealor
Managing Director - Equity Research at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods (KBW)

It feels like you're a little bit more neutral today than you have been and gosh, your ability to lower deposit cost has been really great. But just kind of curious if there's a little bit more risk to that back half of the year expansion in the margin.

Harold Carpenter
Harold Carpenter
CFO at Pinnacle Financial Partners

Yeah, I think there's more risk primarily because just we don't know what's going to happen. So give us that. But the way our sensitivity works out, as long as we're, call it, two rate cuts, give me a range of one to four, we're in really good shape for '25, and we think we can manage it in '26 as well. We still got elevation in deposit rates that we can work through to kind of recapture what we're gonna lose on the earning asset side. But what's more important to us is just the the yield curve itself and just trying to figure out how to get to a flattish to maybe a slightly steepening yield curve.

Harold Carpenter
Harold Carpenter
CFO at Pinnacle Financial Partners

If we go back to an inverted curve that say was around for the last two to three years, then that's a more difficult assertion for us.

Catherine Mealor
Managing Director - Equity Research at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods (KBW)

Makes sense. Okay, great. Thanks. Great quarter.

Harold Carpenter
Harold Carpenter
CFO at Pinnacle Financial Partners

Thanks, Catherine.

Operator

Thank you. Your next question is coming from Timur Braziler from Wells Fargo. Your line is live.

Timur Braziler
Timur Braziler
Director - Mid-Cap Bank Equity Research at Wells Fargo

Hi, good morning. Rounding out the growth conversation, I guess, in what type of an environment might the RM consolidation story not play out? Or in what type of environment might you not want to take on those types of loans? And I guess just from where you're seeing today versus just a couple of months ago, what are you seeing from the borrower side? And what is the internal appetite to continue growing the balance sheet into some of this uncertainty?

Terry Turner
Terry Turner
President & CEO at Pinnacle Financial Partners

Tamara, I think the way I would go at this is I use that phrase hedgehog strategy. This is what we do. This is what we've done for twenty five years is go attract the best bankers in the market, get them to consolidate their book of business from where it is to us. That's a wildly different approach than just hiring people and giving them a Dun and Bradstreet list. It's a wildly different approach than hiring trainees.

Terry Turner
Terry Turner
President & CEO at Pinnacle Financial Partners

It's a wildly different approach than using headhunters to hire people you don't know. We're hiring people that for the most part somebody in this company has said I worked with them before they're good and they share our values. And so that's what gives us such a high execution rate on having these successful people move their books of business. My own belief, you know, anytime you're growing as rapidly as we are, I think Dick Kavasovich at Wells said hey if it's growing like a weed it is one. And so you know you have to you know get down to so how do you produce this growth and not worry so much about the asset quality.

Terry Turner
Terry Turner
President & CEO at Pinnacle Financial Partners

And the way that works is when you're hiring people who have eighteen years experience they move a book of business they're well familiar with, they leave criticized and classified assets behind, and they move only their best clients. And so my belief is that is a substantially less risky approach than what many banks are doing that are producing two three percent growth rates because whatever growth they're getting they're getting it by sending people out calling on folks they don't know, trying to meet somebody to loan money to and so forth, which I think is a substantially higher risk. So all that said, I'm just trying to give the case for why we continue to be bullish on our ability to attract people and why we believe that we can grow assets at that rate and do it in a safe way. So I guess the bottom line all that is it's hard for me to imagine a time when we wouldn't want to hire a high producing relationship manager. That's what we've done for twenty five years.

Timur Braziler
Timur Braziler
Director - Mid-Cap Bank Equity Research at Wells Fargo

Great. Thanks. Maybe switching to DHE. I know it's only been fifteen days in the new quarter, but a lot has changed. I'm just wondering what the demand is for that paper for the partner banks.

Timur Braziler
Timur Braziler
Director - Mid-Cap Bank Equity Research at Wells Fargo

Has there been a marked kind of stepping away from some of that demand subsequent Liberation Day? Or is the origination activity that we saw in 1Q pretty indicative for the type of activity you're expecting here more so in the near term?

Harold Carpenter
Harold Carpenter
CFO at Pinnacle Financial Partners

Based on my last conversations with them, which was probably a week ago on that topic, their their deal flow is still strong. The banks are anxious to buy paper from BHG, and and they they have to be creative, I'll use that word, on making sure that they meet the bank's demands as well as the demands for some of their institutional buyers. So call it Main Street and Wall Street. But right now, they're not having any issues placing their debt through the bank channel, and they've got plenty of volume requests from the Wall Street channel as well. Now that's in a that's not that's not the ABS Wall Street.

Harold Carpenter
Harold Carpenter
CFO at Pinnacle Financial Partners

That's just some of the large institutional buyers just showing up saying, hey. I want a hundred million.

Timur Braziler
Timur Braziler
Director - Mid-Cap Bank Equity Research at Wells Fargo

Yep. Okay. And then just last for me,

Timur Braziler
Timur Braziler
Director - Mid-Cap Bank Equity Research at Wells Fargo

the the timing of the the bond restructure.

Harold Carpenter
Harold Carpenter
CFO at Pinnacle Financial Partners

Oh, it was in the last two weeks of the quarter.

Timur Braziler
Timur Braziler
Director - Mid-Cap Bank Equity Research at Wells Fargo

Great. Thank you.

Harold Carpenter
Harold Carpenter
CFO at Pinnacle Financial Partners

Very little impact to the first quarter, Kamer. Thank you.

Timur Braziler
Timur Braziler
Director - Mid-Cap Bank Equity Research at Wells Fargo

Thanks.

Operator

Thank you. Your next question is coming from Michael Rose from Raymond James. Your line is live.

Michael Rose
Michael Rose
MD - Banking at Raymond James Financial

Hey, good morning, guys. Thanks for taking my questions. Just wanted to start on it. I think in the prepared remarks, you talked about some portfolios you'd be doing some work on to kind of assess the impacts of the tariffs. Sorry if I missed it, but can you just describe what are the first areas of focus for you guys and how encompassing this review would be?

Michael Rose
Michael Rose
MD - Banking at Raymond James Financial

Thanks.

Harold Carpenter
Harold Carpenter
CFO at Pinnacle Financial Partners

Yeah. We've had a lot of questions with credit officers and relationship managers about tariffs and and, you know, trade wars and that like. Right now, the credit officers are focused on trucking. They're focused on multifamily. They're focused on leverage lending.

Harold Carpenter
Harold Carpenter
CFO at Pinnacle Financial Partners

They're looking at all those clients in all those various areas and just making sure that we're in a good spot. Feel like that the truckers are probably going to be the most stressed right now because just because of the supply chain impact that they that they have. And right now, so far so good as, you know, what we're feeling as a bank, banking those particular trucking firms, but we've got our eye out on them.

Michael Rose
Michael Rose
MD - Banking at Raymond James Financial

Okay. And then if there's any sort of the longer this goes on, right, the more pressure there would be. So there could be potentially some reserve build perhaps related to that if things continue, I would assume.

Harold Carpenter
Harold Carpenter
CFO at Pinnacle Financial Partners

Yeah. I'm sure that'll all translate into unemployment and GDP, and that'll require us to build reserves for sure. And keep in mind

Michael Rose
Michael Rose
MD - Banking at Raymond James Financial

Perfect.

Harold Carpenter
Harold Carpenter
CFO at Pinnacle Financial Partners

Like what happened in COVID, that'll mean we'll have to probably reassess our incentive payouts and all of that as well to help counter some of that.

Michael Rose
Michael Rose
MD - Banking at Raymond James Financial

Okay. Perfect. Then thanks for all the appreciate all the color on Slide 10 on the betas, both on the loan and deposit side. I think you mentioned that you have some ability to continue to lower costs. Can you just be more specific around that in terms of how much I'm sorry if I missed it in the slides, what's coming up for renewal this year, the CD percentage is around 10%.

Michael Rose
Michael Rose
MD - Banking at Raymond James Financial

Is there room for that to come down? Just some greater color on kind of beta expectations as you move forward. I know it's hard with the forward curve moving every day, but just any help would be great. Thanks.

Harold Carpenter
Harold Carpenter
CFO at Pinnacle Financial Partners

Yeah. Substantially, of our CD book is going to be twelve months or less. We've got some broker deposits that are a little bit longer out there that we help manage interest rate risk on, but substantially all of it's gonna be within twelve months. So we'll we'll lean on that. But I've also got more than 50% of my other deposit categories are in index to the Fed funds rate.

Harold Carpenter
Harold Carpenter
CFO at Pinnacle Financial Partners

So and right now, we're very intentional about making sure we we go dollar for dollar with respect to a rate cut. And and that's how we're gonna do it, Michael. As we believe there's a rate cut coming, we're gonna start softening the dirt over with our relationship managers to make sure they understand that, you know, it's coming, we need to be prepared to lower these rates with our depositors.

Michael Rose
Michael Rose
MD - Banking at Raymond James Financial

Okay, great. Maybe just final one for me. In the release, you mentioned maybe pursuing other geographies for expansion. I know you've successfully obviously gone to Atlanta, Jacksonville, the DC market. But it read that maybe that could be an option.

Michael Rose
Michael Rose
MD - Banking at Raymond James Financial

Maybe I'm reading into it, near term. But just give us any thoughts around I know you've talked about Florida before, some other markets that would be of interest to you. And is that where you plan to be opportunistic at the just markets you'd be interested in? Thanks.

Terry Turner
Terry Turner
President & CEO at Pinnacle Financial Partners

Yeah, think, Michael, you've heard this so many times. I think our target market is the Southeast. We want to be in all the large urban markets. The voids that exist today are primarily in Florida. We're in Jacksonville but South Of Jacksonville we're not.

Terry Turner
Terry Turner
President & CEO at Pinnacle Financial Partners

And then as you head up the East Coast there's some other markets that sort of would be attractive to us, albeit less attractive than some markets like Atlanta and DC and some that you mentioned there. Those would include places like Columbia, South Carolina, which is the capital South Carolina. It's a little less large and a little less growthy than some but it would be an attractive market. Richmond Virginia, Tidewater Area Virginia, those are all places that we have opportunities. The catalyst for when we go is only when we have a team that we think can build us a large bank.

Terry Turner
Terry Turner
President & CEO at Pinnacle Financial Partners

We're not going somewhere because we've studied census tracts or demographics or psychographics or any of We simply go to those markets that you and I know are attractive when we have a group of people that we believe can build us a large bank. And that means they have the stature to hire a large number of people and hire across multiple disciplines and all those kinds of things. So if those people came available today we would go. If they come available in six months we'll go then.

Terry Turner
Terry Turner
President & CEO at Pinnacle Financial Partners

Two years we'll go then. If they never come available that's okay. We intend to produce outsized growth in our existing footprint. So the opportunity is really when the talent becomes available.

Michael Rose
Michael Rose
MD - Banking at Raymond James Financial

Appreciate it guys. Thanks for taking my questions.

Terry Turner
Terry Turner
President & CEO at Pinnacle Financial Partners

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Your next question is coming from Casey Haire from Autonomous. Your line is live.

Casey Haire
Senior Research Analyst, Mid-Cap Banks at Autonomous Research

Great. Thanks. Good morning, guys. Follow-up the Follow-up on the NIM, so loan yields. Just wondering, I know you guys have some Fed cuts that you're expecting, but ex those, have loan yields bottomed at this, call it, low six level, given the fixed rate repricing opportunities and new money yields coming on the high sixes?

Harold Carpenter
Harold Carpenter
CFO at Pinnacle Financial Partners

Yeah. Well, if we our forecast would say that over the next two quarters, we'll get another we'll get some more rate cuts. So I don't think loan rates have bottomed. Hopefully hopefully, the yield curve will shape up for us that the fixed rate repricing will create the punch that we want, you know, with respect to the yield curve. So I got a feeling we'll probably see see loan yields track down once we see rate cuts.

Harold Carpenter
Harold Carpenter
CFO at Pinnacle Financial Partners

And right now, the first one we've got projected is in June.

Casey Haire
Senior Research Analyst, Mid-Cap Banks at Autonomous Research

Right. Yeah. Okay. I mean, I I was I was thinking more along the lines of x cuts. Like, I know the June cut probably won't factor much into into the second quarter, but okay.

Casey Haire
Senior Research Analyst, Mid-Cap Banks at Autonomous Research

Understood.

Harold Carpenter
Harold Carpenter
CFO at Pinnacle Financial Partners

Oh, I thought you were talking about all of you, Casey. I apologize.

Terry Turner
Terry Turner
President & CEO at Pinnacle Financial Partners

No. Yeah.

Harold Carpenter
Harold Carpenter
CFO at Pinnacle Financial Partners

We don't think loan grades are gonna second quarter is not gonna move much.

Casey Haire
Senior Research Analyst, Mid-Cap Banks at Autonomous Research

Okay.

Casey Haire
Senior Research Analyst, Mid-Cap Banks at Autonomous Research

And then on the on the expense side of things, so you're the you guys are doing it. You're hiring at a pretty fast clip here.

Casey Haire
Senior Research Analyst, Mid-Cap Banks at Autonomous Research

You're

Casey Haire
Senior Research Analyst, Mid-Cap Banks at Autonomous Research

right on pace with last year, which was a record year. How is that pipeline shaping up for the balance of the year? And does this expense guide support that level of hiring?

Terry Turner
Terry Turner
President & CEO at Pinnacle Financial Partners

I think the pipeline is shaping up well. Our guidance going into the year was that we would hire a similar number of people in 2025 as we did in 2024. That's still the best estimate that I have. I believe that we have hired a number like 13 thus far in the second quarter. So we'll continue to move forward just as we have said we would.

Terry Turner
Terry Turner
President & CEO at Pinnacle Financial Partners

And the expense guide does contemplate the hiring.

Casey Haire
Senior Research Analyst, Mid-Cap Banks at Autonomous Research

Okay. Great. And just just lastly, on the capital front, the CET one ratio, assume that would bleed a little bit lower given the the growth outlook that you have. Just how, you know, how comfortable where where would you no longer feel comfortable? What's what's like a floor for the CET1?

Harold Carpenter
Harold Carpenter
CFO at Pinnacle Financial Partners

Yeah. We've never really put a floor out there in the markets. It did bleed down 10 basis points this quarter. We're not I'm not particularly pleased with that. I think we can engineer some things to kind of create more stability in that number so that we don't see it go down.

Harold Carpenter
Harold Carpenter
CFO at Pinnacle Financial Partners

Typically, the way our growth works here this year is about, call it, dollars 900,000,000 in loan growth, maybe a little bit north of that, should keep our risk based capital ratios pretty flat.

Casey Haire
Senior Research Analyst, Mid-Cap Banks at Autonomous Research

Gotcha.

Harold Carpenter
Harold Carpenter
CFO at Pinnacle Financial Partners

Thank That's that's kind of the marker we're using.

Operator

Thank

Operator

you. Your next question is coming from Steve Scouten from Piper Sandler. Your line is live.

Stephen Scouten
Stephen Scouten
MD & Senior Research Analyst at Piper Sandler Companies

Yes, good morning. Thanks, guys. So thinking about kind of deposit growth a little bit, I think to me, you guys have always grown loans fantastically, but the strength of deposit growth has really been the welcome part of the story that's been so exemplary. The 7% to 10% deposit growth, guess, is more of that weighted towards the newer markets is maybe the first part of that. And secondarily, the strength on the betas on the way down that you've had on deposits relative to loans.

Stephen Scouten
Stephen Scouten
MD & Senior Research Analyst at Piper Sandler Companies

Do do you think that's sustainable, or could we have a little bit of a catch up there just as as we move further down this path?

Harold Carpenter
Harold Carpenter
CFO at Pinnacle Financial Partners

Well, as far as the loan beta is concerned, I'm sure there's probably some acceleration, that could occur with steeper rate cuts. But as we see it here over this year, we don't think that's really in the cards. We like the way our pricing metrics are working currently on the left side of the balance sheet. We we fully intend on the right side of the balance sheet to be as aggressive on deposit cuts here over the next two cuts as as we have been. Your point is a good one.

Harold Carpenter
Harold Carpenter
CFO at Pinnacle Financial Partners

Eventually, with deposit rates, if they get if we get too many rate cuts or more, you know, say if we get down into the 50 to 200 rate cuts into the 2% fed funds rate, then it becomes more difficult to get those rate cuts to pair to get a higher beta on that deposit book. But again, just a few years ago, we were dealing with 25 basis points in fed funds, and we were running close to a, call it, a three twenty margin after you factored out a lot of the liquidity that was on the balance sheet. So we're not afraid of steeper, deeper rate cuts. What we don't wanna see is that inverted curve again.

Terry Turner
Terry Turner
President & CEO at Pinnacle Financial Partners

Dave, I think on the question about is it skewed toward, is the growth skewed toward new markets and so forth, I think that's a variable. We have some markets that have done extremely well. I think Washington DC is a great example north of 2,000,000,000 in deposits in a pretty short period of time. So that's a great success story. But we have other markets that you know the loan growth would, that'd be a net user of funds as opposed to a net provider of funds.

Terry Turner
Terry Turner
President & CEO at Pinnacle Financial Partners

So it's a little mixed in terms of how those things play out. The big item that has goose the growth rates on deposits is all the specialty verticals that we build. I think we've mentioned those a number of times, things that have to do with escrow accounting or captive insurance companies or health and benefits, different things like that. We built eight or so specializations and so they have really provided a good part of the growth, and we expect that to be the case for the foreseeable future.

Stephen Scouten
Stephen Scouten
MD & Senior Research Analyst at Piper Sandler Companies

Got it. Fantastic color there. And then you guys have always been just fantastic C and I loan growth. It's really been the focus apart from M and A. It's added some CRE in there.

Stephen Scouten
Stephen Scouten
MD & Senior Research Analyst at Piper Sandler Companies

But with all these concerns around tariffs and the economy and uncertainty, and I know you mentioned Harold, I think, kind of trucking, leverage lending and so forth, how do you think about C and I lending today as people start to get more concerned? Do you start to take a in any way or do you increase reserves around small affluent lending or, you know,

Stephen Scouten
Stephen Scouten
MD & Senior Research Analyst at Piper Sandler Companies

you can get from what you guys are seeing on around

Harold Carpenter
Harold Carpenter
CFO at Pinnacle Financial Partners

Steve, you kinda broke up there at the end.

Stephen Scouten
Stephen Scouten
MD & Senior Research Analyst at Piper Sandler Companies

Just kinda what you're seeing on

Stephen Scouten
Stephen Scouten
MD & Senior Research Analyst at Piper Sandler Companies

the ground as it pertains

Terry Turner
Terry Turner
President & CEO at Pinnacle Financial Partners

Steve,

Terry Turner
Terry Turner
President & CEO at Pinnacle Financial Partners

I'm not sure if that's you or us, but we're not able to hear your question.

Operator

Joe, your line is coming through clearly. Steve, once again, please restate your question. You. Your next question is coming from Brett Rabatin from Hovde Group. Your line is live.

Brett Rabatin
Director of Research at Hovde Group

Hey, guys. Good morning.

Harold Carpenter
Harold Carpenter
CFO at Pinnacle Financial Partners

Hey, Brent. Brent, how are you doing?

Brett Rabatin
Director of Research at Hovde Group

Good.

Brett Rabatin
Director of Research at Hovde Group

Wanted to ask, you know, if you

Brett Rabatin
Director of Research at Hovde Group

look at slide 44 with BHG, the the thing that stood out to me is just that, you know, the thirty day past due trends is is, really good on the consumer side. And just wanted to see I mean, everyone's waiting for the consumer to to break. Just wanted to see if that was a function of what you guys consider to be, underwriting standards or if there's anything else that's underlying that positive trend for the consumer past due trends for BHG.

Harold Carpenter
Harold Carpenter
CFO at Pinnacle Financial Partners

Yeah. I think BHG's got you know, they're obviously watching, you know, where credit trends are headed. Right now, in comparison to the prior two years, I feel pretty excited that they don't see nearly the of the weakness in their borrower base that they saw two or three years ago. The new accounts that are coming on, believe, are significantly stronger than what they what they've experienced even pre COVID. So like I said, they're pretty excited about where it's going, but they're gonna keep they're gonna keep a keen eye on, particularly around, call it, near near term defaults, like people that maybe borrow money and six months later they're past due.

Harold Carpenter
Harold Carpenter
CFO at Pinnacle Financial Partners

So they're to keep an eye on those kind of credits, which became pretty evident, call it, in the 'twenty one and 'twenty two vintages.

Brett Rabatin
Director of Research at Hovde Group

Okay. And I'm kind of surprised no one's asked a question about a pivot. Terry, you always say you grow through recessions, but in the press release, you talk about being nimble. Assuming we did tilt into recession, what does nimble mean for Pinnacle in terms of how they're how you guys are operating and what strategies you guys might do with the balance sheet or expansion?

Terry Turner
Terry Turner
President & CEO at Pinnacle Financial Partners

Yeah. I think, Brad, honestly, the, you know this as well as I do, man. It's a headline a day. It's up for half a day, down for half a day. I mean, it's moving in a lot of different directions.

Terry Turner
Terry Turner
President & CEO at Pinnacle Financial Partners

And so our approach is just to stay close, to listen to our clients, know what's going on with them and be responsive to that. I wouldn't want to imply that we've developed a lot of contingency plans where we're going to alter our strategy dramatically or those kinds of things. I think you've watched us over the years. We have tapped the brakes a time or two on hiring. We've never stopped it for sure, but we have tapped the brakes and slowed the growth, which I think we did two or three years ago.

Terry Turner
Terry Turner
President & CEO at Pinnacle Financial Partners

You know, obviously the incentive is the big lever that, you know, the, cushion if revenues don't show up and so forth. Obviously, the revenues and earnings have to show up to pay an incentive. And so that always is a big cushion for us. But in all honesty, Harold mentioned, we're studying loan portfolios, trying to make sure we're up to speed on how they're being impacted by tariffs and those kinds of things. But at this point, I would not want to, indicate that we've, started developing contingency plans.

Brett Rabatin
Director of Research at Hovde Group

Okay. And then if I can do one last quick one. You know, I was a little surprised you guys started out the year at a % incentive payout ratio that you just mentioned, Terry, just given the uncertainty. Just wanted to maybe hear if that was a function of anything in particular.

Harold Carpenter
Harold Carpenter
CFO at Pinnacle Financial Partners

Brett, no, not really. We think we're pretty much on plan as of the end of the quarter. So hopefully, we can continue that going through the rest of the year and be able to deliver it. But obviously, there's a lot of uncertainties right now that hopefully will play out with some degree of clarity in the second quarter.

Brett Rabatin
Director of Research at Hovde Group

Okay. Great. Appreciate all the color, guys.

Terry Turner
Terry Turner
President & CEO at Pinnacle Financial Partners

All right. Thanks, Brad.

Operator

Thank you. Your next question is coming from Anthony Elion from JPMorgan. Your line is live.

Anthony Elian
Anthony Elian
Equity Research Analyst at JP Morgan

Hi, everyone. Just a follow-up to the previous question on the loan portfolios you're watching. Harold, could you size up for us the trucking portfolio in terms of outstanding balances just given that may be the most stressed right now?

Harold Carpenter
Harold Carpenter
CFO at Pinnacle Financial Partners

Yes. I'll throw a number at you, Tony. And if it's not right, I'll give you a buzz back. But I think it's about I think transportation is about $700,000,000. So that would include more than just truckers, but I think it's about 700,000,000.

Anthony Elian
Anthony Elian
Equity Research Analyst at JP Morgan

Okay. Okay, got it.

Anthony Elian
Anthony Elian
Equity Research Analyst at JP Morgan

And then my follow-up just one on loan growth. So outstanding quarter again in the first quarter for loan growth, but that was before the tariffs were fully announced. I know you still expect a strong second quarter for loan growth, but can you just dive a bit deeper anecdotally on what you've heard over the past two weeks from your customers in terms of CapEx, other investments they may be thinking about in their pipeline? And if they're making any adjustments now given the elevated uncertainty tariffs? Thank you.

Terry Turner
Terry Turner
President & CEO at Pinnacle Financial Partners

Yeah, Tony, my sense of it is that economic loan demand would be near zero today. I think you know everybody would put the clutch in and say boy I just need to see more variables. I don't think you're going to see people wait out do a lot of deferred capital expenditures and I don't think anybody believes that you know you're going to get the growth in working assets here that requires a lot of financing either. So again I think it's everybody's just watching to see how it plays through. So again if I were dependent in any way on what the economic loan demand is to produce the 8% to 11% loan growth I'd be really nervous.

Terry Turner
Terry Turner
President & CEO at Pinnacle Financial Partners

I'd probably be taking that down. But really that's the reason we spent so much time just talking about, look, we get growth from our new hires and our new hires are getting it because they're consolidating their balances. It's not really dependent upon new loans as much as it is just moving preexisting loans from where they were to us. And, so anyway, I think, most people are, viewing this to be a time of extreme uncertainty. I had a person tell me yesterday he never remembers the time with more uncertainty in it.

Terry Turner
Terry Turner
President & CEO at Pinnacle Financial Partners

And, so anyway, I think that's going to be the order of the day until we can find a landing spot on tariffs.

Anthony Elian
Anthony Elian
Equity Research Analyst at JP Morgan

Right, Terry. And just a follow-up to that. So do you

Anthony Elian
Anthony Elian
Equity Research Analyst at JP Morgan

feel like your footprint across the Southeast, which is one of the fastest growing markets in the country, gives you more insulation relative to other parts of the country in terms of eventually seeing economic loan demand come back and what that could mean for your overall loan growth outlook potentially above the guidance that you have?

Terry Turner
Terry Turner
President & CEO at Pinnacle Financial Partners

Yes, I do believe that if you could get certainty, I mean, do think there is an expectation that you're going to reshor, you're going to have increased manufacturing and so forth. The question is when's that going to get here? But I do believe whenever it shows up our footprint is extraordinarily advantaged. We have been a major in migrator of jobs all over the Southeast and would have an expectation that, you know, that phenomenon is going to continue almost irrespective of total growth. We still have folks that are in the pipeline to relocate businesses to the Southeast in these urban markets and so forth.

Terry Turner
Terry Turner
President & CEO at Pinnacle Financial Partners

So anyway, yeah, when we get beyond the uncertainty, my expectation is that, we're gonna get outside job growth here, which will, translate into increased financing opportunities.

Anthony Elian
Anthony Elian
Equity Research Analyst at JP Morgan

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Your next question is coming from Brian Martin from Janney. Your line is live.

Brian Martin
Director - Banks & Thrifts at Janney Montgomery Scott

Hey. Good morning, guys.

Terry Turner
Terry Turner
President & CEO at Pinnacle Financial Partners

Hey,

Terry Turner
Terry Turner
President & CEO at Pinnacle Financial Partners

Brian.

Brian Martin
Director - Banks & Thrifts at Janney Montgomery Scott

Hey, Just wondering if your your sense today given hiring appears on track, if going to a new market appears more likely, given kind of the pipelines you have in terms of recruiting? Is that again, is that similar to the other question earlier, maybe reading more into it? It just feels like mentioning it suggests that maybe it's getting more likely as some of these other markets are gaining traction in terms of hiring.

Terry Turner
Terry Turner
President & CEO at Pinnacle Financial Partners

Yeah, let me just sort of, see if I can clear that up. I wanted to put that in there because what is so important to me, as you can tell from our comments, what I need people to understand is, look, we're operating a model that we've been operating for twenty five years, which is when we have opportunities to hire good people, we hire them. And you ought to have an expectation that we're going to

Terry Turner
Terry Turner
President & CEO at Pinnacle Financial Partners

do that.

Terry Turner
Terry Turner
President & CEO at Pinnacle Financial Partners

And that's what's going to produce the growth. It is the reason that we can produce both reliable rapid and quality growth is that that specific model. And so I think there's likelihood. But if you my sentiment about is it more likely today than it was when we started the year or is it less likely today than when we started the year, I would say neither. It just sort of feels the same to me, but the you know, may have made a mistake by calling it out, but I just I didn't want to sneak up on somebody.

Terry Turner
Terry Turner
President & CEO at Pinnacle Financial Partners

We're gonna keep hiring people. A lot of you know, a lot of my peers are trying to cut, staffs and cut expenses and so forth. And so I just want to be clear that's not what we're doing. And so that was the point for putting it in there. But it it I would not want it to indicate that it's more likely or less likely than it was when we started the year.

Brian Martin
Director - Banks & Thrifts at Janney Montgomery Scott

No. Thanks for clearing that up, Terry. I understand. And it's been your strategy all along to look at new markets. So totally understand Just one other question.

Brian Martin
Director - Banks & Thrifts at Janney Montgomery Scott

Just in terms of loan growth, Harold, I think you said construction had opened up a little bit just in terms of the growth you the C and I growth you put the slide there on has been strong. Would you expect these other buckets to continue or begin to start growing again, contributing to kind of your loan growth outlook for the year, meaning the multifamily, the non owner occupied and construction? Should we expect to see some growth there in the coming quarters?

Harold Carpenter
Harold Carpenter
CFO at Pinnacle Financial Partners

Yeah, I think, and I'll let Terry you know, correct me if I'm wrong here, but we don't think we'll see meaningful lift from construction volumes probably until the first part of next year. As you know, projects take about six months to start funding and we're just now beginning to open that back up. So it'll take a little bit before we see volumes from new projects begin to impact our numbers. And until then we will see current projects continue to fund up. Like I said, we've had a lot of conversations with relationship managers and particularly in construction.

Harold Carpenter
Harold Carpenter
CFO at Pinnacle Financial Partners

They feel pretty good that our construction borrowers that they've already had, they've got the materials in place to go ahead and do those projects and complete those projects and don't really we're not really as concerned about what may be happening with steel or concrete or other raw materials to kind of complete some of these projects. So hopefully that'll pan out like we think it will.

Terry Turner
Terry Turner
President & CEO at Pinnacle Financial Partners

Brian, I think when Harold mentioned CRE opening up, I think the point he was trying to make is, know, we've been really trying to reduce our concentration in CRE, both construction and the total CRE bucket. And so we are inside the target for construction and we're close on the target for total CRE. The glide path will take us below those targets before they begin to fund up. And so I think to Harold's point it's probably late this year before that thing begins to bend north because of the length of time it takes for a project to launch and get to burn through the equity to get into the bank financing. So, anyway, hopefully, that's helpful.

Brian Martin
Director - Banks & Thrifts at Janney Montgomery Scott

Yeah. No. Perfect. And last one, just modeling, Harold, in terms of the tax rate, how should we think about the tax rate here in the coming quarters?

Harold Carpenter
Harold Carpenter
CFO at Pinnacle Financial Partners

Yeah. I think the rate in the first quarter is going to be indicative of what we think for the rest of the year. I don't see any significant increases in the tax rate from here on out. I think pretty good. I may put 100 basis points in there just to keep it conservative.

Brian Martin
Director - Banks & Thrifts at Janney Montgomery Scott

Okay. So around 18% or so seems fair. So Okay. I appreciate it. Thanks, guys.

Harold Carpenter
Harold Carpenter
CFO at Pinnacle Financial Partners

Thank you, Brian.

Operator

Thank you. That completes our Q and A session. Everyone, this concludes today's event. You may disconnect at this time, and have a wonderful day. Thank you for your participation.

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Earnings Conference Call
Pinnacle Financial Partners Q1 2025
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