Gresham House Energy Storage H2 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
April 23, 2025

There are 3 speakers on the call.

Operator

Okay. Well, we're one minute past 10:30, so let let's begin this morning's webinar. Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the annual results presentation for the financial year ending 12/31/2024 for the Gresham House Energy Storage Fund. As always on these occasions, I'm pleased to be joined by Ben Guest, managing director of the energy transition business at Gresham House and also lead fund manager on Grid, and also James Bustin, assistant fund manager to Ben on the company.

Operator

We will present or Ben and and James will present this morning for about twenty minutes, and then we'll open up to q and a. Some people have already sent in their questions, but I would encourage others to send those in online, and we'll get through as many of them as we can in the allotted time. Before I hand over to Ben, a couple of words from me. 02/2024 was definitely a year of two halves with the second half leading to a significant recovery in revenues and earnings after a very difficult and challenging first half to the year. That good performance has continued in the first quarter of this year.

Operator

Ben will talk through the results in more detail and also share an update on the progress made on the three year plan we shared with shareholders back in November of last year. So please send in your questions, and we'll get through as many as we can after the formal part of the presentation. Ben, over to you, sir.

Speaker 1

Good morning, everybody. Thank you, Rupert, and thank you for everyone attending this call. I'd like to start also by echoing some of Rupert's comments to thank our shareholders for their patience and support through what's been a pretty difficult time for the business, hopefully, in the rearview mirror. But clearly, it's been a challenging time both in terms of the initial event of very weak revenues in h one last year and the and the subsequent consequences of it in terms of pulling our dividend. And, hopefully, we're coming out the other side of that.

Speaker 1

So launching into the detail of the presentation, starting with some highlights. Over the year, we saw, starting with the top left, our NAV per share decline by about 15%. That was driven largely by in fact, over a % of the effect was driven by a reduction in in lower revenue forecasts, partly like for like reductions in assumptions as well as a mix effect in terms of changing one of our two forecast providers to a forecast provider that is more conservative than the previous one. Moving to the right, the balance sheet position at the end of the last year remains relatively lowly geared. A hundred and 50,000,000 debt drawn, 40,000,000 of cash for a hundred and 10,000,000 net debt position.

Speaker 1

And that we as we mentioned in the past, we expect to peak at a net debt level of approximately a hundred and 60,000,000 on a on a like for like basis. In other words, assuming no refinancing and so on, we'll come on to the details. One of the big things we did last year to derisk the business from a downside perspective was to contract approximately half of our revenues for a couple of years. We'll give details around what we're doing that you know, on that incrementally. But within the context of that deal, 360 megawatts of the 568 have so far gone on to on to contract.

Speaker 1

There are, in fact, 14 underlying contracts here. So a a a significant percentage have gone online, and the remainder are going online very

Speaker 2

soon.

Speaker 1

In terms of operational capacity, we can continue to grow strongly. Through the end of last year, we'd grown to 845 megawatts. We've added another hundred megawatts with Melksham so far this year, taking us to close to 1.5 gigawatt hours. The percentage growth figures there are relating to the blue bar further below of the nine four five and one four four seven, right, and growth relative to the beginning of 2024, '6 '90 '7 '8 '8 figures. And very strong growth in megawatt hours, reflecting longer duration new projects and the augmentations that we've carried out.

Speaker 1

In terms of revenues, clearly, a weak and declining year over year first half, followed by a strong growth year over year and relatively easy comps, if you will, in the second half, resulting in year over year growth of 20%, a function of recovering revenue rates and also more installed capacity with the revenues in the fourth quarter continuing in in q one twenty five, and we'll give more details on that. And similarly, some growth in the EBITDA line, slightly slower growth than than in the revenue line, slightly due to the the operational impact due to augmentations going on. So it's a slight mix effect there, but underlying margins for the business are are actually healthier than what would be suggested by the slower growth in EBITDA relative to revenues. So that's that's what's gone before. Just to highlight what's happened since the year end, there's a bit of overlap here, and also the outlook as and and looking forward to things like the three year plan and refinancing.

Speaker 1

Shelton Lane, West Bradford of our existing plan will close out the finally, the the operation the operational status of the original pipeline to taking us to a 72 megawatts and 1.7 gigawatt hours. And and we look forward to closing this in in the next few weeks. I appreciate there's been a a little additional delay there, but these projects are basically built now and waiting for various different things to conclude from a more from an administrative perspective, especially in the case of Shelton Lane. In terms of the management fee, this has gone the basis for this has changed to the average of NAV plus market cap, and that that in the context of a discount to NAV means that the I appreciate that the share price has gone up, but we remain at a significant discount to NAV means a significant saving on the on the management fee going going forward until we close that discount if we can. We've been working as we've announced before in the Capital Markets Day in particular, the first time we announced this, an equity investment at a single project level to EvidenceNOW effectively.

Speaker 1

And that continues to progress positively, and and this is in late stages of due diligence and documentation now. So, hopefully, we are gonna be positioned to to announce that in more detail soon in the next few weeks. The other big event, obviously, is the refinancing of the existing facilities and securing financing for our new construction. And we're pleased to say that, overall, this is all being worked on close out at a lower interest rate than what we're paying currently. And that's due to lower spreads, not not where interest rates are.

Speaker 1

It's just a function of lower spreads and a a longer term facility. Effectively, this will be project finance for those of you who understand the type of financing, the mortgage staff financing, if you will, that you see in in renewables type projects and other infrastructure projects. And the the reason we can secure this is is the ability to contract revenues over the longer term. So expect we're effectively expanding on our experience with Octopus with additional counterparties and diversifying both by counterparty and by by contract type, and I'll come on to a bit of detail on that. But once we've concluded this refinancing, I'm pleased to say that we'll be able to kick off the augmentations and new projects that we've detailed in our three year plan.

Speaker 1

There's a bit more on that in the next page. And then the the the refinancing will also allow us to reinitiate distributions to shareholding shareholders. Sorry. And and and that will take the form of dividends and potentially buybacks depending on where the share price is. And, again, we will detail that as soon as the refinancing is completed.

Speaker 1

But just to highlight that we plan to close this out in the second quarter. So we're we're in the second quarter now, so in the next eight weeks and hopefully before the quarter end. So that includes closing out our contracted revenues and closing out the the debt facilities. And just a a moment on the debt facilities. The the plan is to refinance the existing operational portfolio debt, the debt that we're all familiar with that we discussed in the previous page as well in terms of the the gross net debt positions.

Speaker 1

We will slightly upsize that to fund the augmentations that we plan on doing this year, and then separate project finance facilities, which are not cross collateralized with the existing portfolio. In other words, if a new project goes under, of course, we don't expect that, but nevertheless, for for for for reassurance, if if one project a new project does not work out, it does not there's no reach across to to the existing portfolio. So we're looking at separate project financing facilities for each of our new five projects that we plan on building over the next couple of years. So a little bit more detail on the three year plan. First of all, looking backwards, I've covered those points.

Speaker 1

We've been working on the refinancing. I've covered the first point. I mean, we've been working on the refinancing since last November. We appointed our debt adviser then, and we a lot of the work has been done up upfront in terms of preparing models, due diligence, term sheets, teasers, investment memorandum, and so on so that we can then ask our potential lenders to to effectively mark up that term sheet that I mentioned a moment ago. And then we we're now at the later stages of that, having selected the the final lenders, those providing the most attractive terms in in in various different ways, and and look forward to to closing the facility facilities with with them over the next few weeks, as I mentioned.

Speaker 1

So this process is is towards the later stages now. We're going towards the documentation, final due diligence, and obviously things like credit committees along the on the on the lender's side. As I as I mentioned earlier, the contracting of underlying revenues is is key to this in terms of providing a bit of detail. There are there are effectively two types of contract you can secure on a multiyear basis. So we contracted half our portfolio for two years.

Speaker 1

We're effectively adding to that. And the options available are more tolling agreements with investment grade counterparties so that they satisfy lenders' requirements there, or floor contracts, also with investment grade counterparties. And a floor contract is one where you can secure a lower level than what you might secure with a toll, but you essentially continue to capture circa 90% of of of the potential merchant upside. So you're sort of locking in a floor, but capturing the majority of the upside. And this is obviously attractive to us.

Speaker 1

So the the overall level of contracted revenues is expected to to be able to service the repayment of the debt on an ongoing basis, that's which is the nature of project finance. You you you're you're repaying rather like you would in home mortgage, and and servicing, of course, of the interest as well. So interest and principal repayments, intend to cover with with with contracted cash flows. Next, we we mentioned, obviously, that we plan on closing this out in the next few weeks and and q two, so before the June. What do we what does this unlock?

Speaker 1

It unlocks the the the the three year plan. Three year plan that we detailed in the Capital Markets Day last year in November was for the augmentation of the existing portfolio. So this is over and above any gigawatt hours or megawatt hours added from the new pipeline. So additional augmentations of the existing portfolio over and above what we did last year, taking the duration of the existing portfolio up towards three hours. We won't be doing that all at once.

Speaker 1

We will be doing a set of upgrades or augmentations this year and next year that gets us to at least two hours for the portfolio, and then we'll be revisiting augmentations in the context of the market and in terms of the products, the the both the products and and in terms of markets and and revenue environment. There are various things going on that that will keep us on our toes in terms of whether we look at straightforward three to four hour augmentations, or we start looking at the long duration opportunities from a contractual perspective becoming available from the government. Then in terms of pipeline, new projects, we're with the five existing projects that we've got. That total is 694 megawatts. There were two fifties in the original list that we that led to a total of six eighty.

Speaker 1

The difference is that those fifties are now five 57 megawatt projects, and so that there's a slight increase there. But we're building all of those out two hours initially and and have the potential to upgrade those as well. And then finally, additional revenues continues to be a really exciting area. It's a low capital requirement here. It's just a a matter of putting certain things in place, and we look forward to providing you with more details on that as we as as we conclude those efforts.

Speaker 1

In terms of NAV, this is information that can be readily read in the annual report and and our quarterly reports by quarter going backwards, so I won't spend too long on this. But, essentially, the decline is is all explained by the middle red pillar or or bar, which which shows our revenue forecast declining both as a function of less so due to individual forecasters' forecast declining and more so due to the change of one of our two forecasters during the year that led to a significant reduction in AAV. And the the effect of that is shown on this page, which shows the reduction from the dotted line levels at different durations. So light blue is is two hours all the way down to the half hour curve or sub one hour curve in the dark blue and and with one and a half hours and one hours in between. And the forecasts all assumed at the beginning of the year that the recovery in revenues would occur within a two to three year period in '24, that is, through to '27, and then we'd be largely back on track.

Speaker 1

And that really very much reflects the improvements to skip rates that are anticipated in that time frame through the modernization of NISO's control room and and the trading and the balancing mechanism. However, nevertheless, the forecasts have become more conservative, and and the recovery is really expected to take place right through 2030. Hopefully, this proves to be too conservative, and in due course, we will see an improvement. But in the meantime, this is the set of forecasts that we're using, and and hopefully that we can we can outperform these. We've introduced some more information in our annual report, which is hopefully useful, which we first introduced in our interims.

Speaker 1

And essentially, it's not a set of forecast, but it's a scenario. And we've revised the scenario that we provided in the past at £45,000 per megawatt per year of merchant revenue in our portfolio up to 75,000 to reflect the more recent trading environment. And that's shown in the middle pillar on the right, showing the breakdown in terms of merchant and contracted revenues while then the contracted revenue being a combination of Centimeters revenue and tolling revenue while we are still on on on the existing tolls. So it's very much looking at that. And this assumes the full 72 megawatts are online, and the EBITDA drops out of that as well at 59,000,000.

Speaker 1

The previous scenario that we provided at forty five thousand showed a circa 45,000,000 of of EBITDA. So naturally, there's there's an improvement as a function of the higher assumption. In terms of the impact on valuations, and I apologize that we're using 45.9 p. That's the what what what we used at the time that we drafted the report. I appreciate that the share prices rallied significantly on the back of the Harmony transaction.

Speaker 1

But the the EBITDA EVEBITDA assumptions are nevertheless quite low, even even following the rally. And naturally, as we build out the portfolio, the asset base grows, the the potential for EBITDA grows, and therefore, the potential for this all all else being equal for this multiple to decline yeah, is is is also very much there. Oops. Sorry. I've gone the wrong way.

Speaker 1

Apologies. So in terms of bit of market backdrop, what we've seen as we've seen more renewables come online is is the volatility of that supply impacting power prices, which is what we'd want and what we expect in terms of the need for batteries. Last year, one one key characteristic of the market is that we saw over a thousand negative half hourly price points. In this year, we expect another increase. And using Moto's forecasts, the the the assumption is that we get to over 2,000 negative half hours or or thousand hours of of negative price points in a year, which speaks to to the downside volatility in power prices caused by renewables.

Speaker 1

And as we seek to decarbonize our system per the current government's ambitions, these effects will only amplify over time as we get more renewables online. One of the important topics of the last couple of years has been the the skip rate. Here, it's described as a dispatch rate, which is one minus the skip rate. You could also call it the utilization of batteries, the percentage of the time that they're used when they're in marriage or pricing themselves competitively and available for NISO NISO's control room to dispatch them the balancing mechanism. And we've seen very low levels of dispatch, especially at the beginning of last year, and and we we've seen that dispatch rate increase.

Speaker 1

So that's the light blue line. While the actual volume, yeah, the use of batteries in the balancing mechanism has increased very significantly in terms of total, you know, gigawatt hours, which is a reflection of more batteries and higher dispatch rate. So batteries are being used much more heavily in the control room, but we would point out that the in merit dispatch rate remains at 16% or, in other words, the skip rate remains above 80. There's some various ways that this can be calculated, and and and Lisa would have different views on what that skip rate is based on certain limitations that they have, some of them based on their current systems. But we'd expect this to to come down sharply over time as we see more batteries come online, and therefore batteries being more visible, and the systems improvements that we expect this year coming through.

Speaker 1

And I'm pleased to say that they are coming through. In terms of revenue mix, trading is very much the the the main aspect of the business now, and that's what we've always assumed and forecast. So the the red segment is now 50%. Obviously, there's some trading implicit in the tolling figure, which was only online a portion of our portfolio online for for some of the year, so down at 8%, but but will present represent a much higher percentage through this year. So the combination of of of tolling and trading absolutely dominating our revenues.

Speaker 1

The the capacity market revenues, which contracted, continue at a at a healthy level at just under 20%. We'd expect that to decline as merchant revenues recover, and frequency response also to keep declining as as trading becomes the the main main business of the portfolio. Just in terms of comparing our our our revenues and and with the revenue mix shown in there with with the peer group to the extent that it's reliable, taking each month at a time. The the portfolio is consistently outperformed. I think just one month where we underperformed and another where we were roughly in line.

Speaker 1

And and that's gratifying given that we have a slightly shorter duration portfolio, at least we did in '24 than than the average portfolio monitored by by Modo. This is the chart we showed several times. I think, hopefully, it's useful to show that fundamentally, this business is really about underlying capacity growth, which is the historical growth that you can see here. And as we deploy into the three year plan, that thousand megawatt roughly figure will grow to off off to the top right of the page at the to to one and three quarters gigawatts or one one seven five o roughly megawatts and duration increasing, and I can give that detail in a moment. With the red line being the underlying revenue.

Speaker 1

So, obviously, it doesn't follow quite track the the underlying capacity, but there's a trend there. And we'd expect that red line to also trend upwards from lower left to upper right. Clearly, extraordinary revenues for the smaller portfolio during 2022 and very weak revenues in '24 distort the overall trend. But there is a there's an upward trajectory, we would argue, and also supported increasingly through contracted revenues, which we'll provide the details of as soon as we can. In other words, as soon as we've signed these contracts and and can disclose them.

Speaker 1

I'm afraid they're commercially sensitive until we have. And so just a little bit more detail in terms of what we've done over the last year and a bit. The underlying capacity has grown, which is the dark blue, pretty significantly about 30%. But the growth in megawatt hours, which is the combination of of the two bars, it were 1.4 gigawatt hours up from just under 800 megawatt hours, 83% growth from memory. And we'll we'll continue to grow a little bit this year as we commission the the final couple of projects, and then grow significantly as we unlock the growth through our refinancing efforts and contracting efforts.

Speaker 1

So just to give a quick picture of the overall portfolio, operational assets on the left, pipeline at the top there, and and the that's not quite online, but coming online, and then apart from Walpole, and then the exclusive pipeline, which is what we're looking to build this year or kick off the construction of this year. So an exciting outlook, I hope, combining total revenue total megawatts of of about 1.75 giga gigawatts one seven five o megawatts. And And then you can see the picture there showing good diversification across the country with the red being operational. Hope that's not confusing. So in terms of our scale, we continue to lead the the market, the GB market.

Speaker 1

Our position is shown in dark blue for 2023, and the the combined bars across the board show the the the picture at the end of '20 '20 '4. And you can see a few only yellow bars showing that there are several new entrants, mostly quite small sizes, but does mean that our market share has declined a bit to 17% at the end of the year. But it's still a significant market share, and it'd be interesting to see how this industry consolidates over time. So just a a final final summary. So we've seen an improving trading environment through 2024 with q four being the best by far.

Speaker 1

That continued in q one of twenty five. We gave a scenario there which shows EBITDA of 59,000,000 based on 75 k per megawatt per year on the on the uncontracted segment of the portfolio. And that that's so sorry. 59,000,000 of EBITDA is a combination of is the whole portfolio, but assuming 75 k per megawatt on the merchant part of the portfolio, which is a doubling on on on 24 levels. And then really the focus now is is and has been for some time for the team as well as maintaining uptime and getting the existing projects online is really to refinance our our existing facilities.

Speaker 1

And just to just to add a point on the financing, we've we've I've only talked about the debt, but there are various forms of capital available at the portfolio level, especially for the new pipeline that unlocks the overall picture. So it's not just senior debt finance. There's there's all the sources of equity. Again, we'll provide the details of that in due course. But we have an overall picture which culminates in a portfolio where we don't expect EV to GAV to to rise above 30% just as a comparable.

Speaker 1

The majority of the listed renewables funds have EV to GAV starting at 40%. So we're we're still well below those levels despite having significant levels of contracted revenues on our side now going forward, you know, for comparable to renewables funds. And this is just to give a context in the context of the overall investment trust market, nothing more. And then and then we we we look forward to concluding that the equity investment at a project level to fund an augmentation in that case, which we hope hopefully can demonstrate at at or or around NAV in the very near term. As I mentioned already, revenue contracting is absolutely key to unlock the the debt that unlocks the the augmentations and the new pipeline.

Speaker 1

And, of course, not to understate it, the the ability to turn on distributions to shareholders and and and maintaining but making this a total return story of income and the substantial growth we hope to show in the next few years and and and income growth, we we look forward to delivering. And this one final point, which I'm conscious is not written down in our presentation. As we unlock this capital, there there are various things that we we look forward to to demonstrating. There's growth in, first of all, the NAV because, obviously, that's the discounting of future growth. And as soon as the funding's there, we're we're within our rights as a business to start discounting the cash flows expected from augmentations and and and soon enough also of the new construction.

Speaker 1

And that will have a material upside impact on our NAV and also, of course, on our revenues and EBITDA, the EBITDA bridge in particular that we showed at the Capital Markets Day, we we we still are targeting as our ambition in terms of hitting a hundred and 50,000,000 of EBITDA on a on a run rate basis by the end of twenty twenty seven. That's that remains our ambition, and that also unlocks significant growth in free cash flow as well. So with that, I'll hand back to Rupert and look forward to taking your questions and invite James to join in as well.

Operator

Ben, thank you very much for that comprehensive summary of the 2024 results and outlook and progress on the three year plan as communicated to shareholders last November. We've had a number of questions in. I'll try and cluster these. They're around, obviously, the the keen interest in the Harmony read across and the valuation for grid. The questions around capital allocation, shareholder buybacks versus dividends versus investing free cash flow for future growth.

Operator

The questions around the curves, you know, a nice doing enough to help batteries. Then there's questions around tolling and other contractual opportunities that you've referred to, and then queue reform and zonal pricing. So quite a lot of very topical issues to to to to get through. So do you want do you want to start, you and James, on on on the the Harmony read across? Sure.

Operator

I think it's important to to to distinguish between the two portfolios, the characteristics, but also, you know, the the the the work we've done and and and helping investors just get to a landing place there.

Speaker 1

Understood. Yes. Thank you, Rupert. So, obviously, numbers be are being offered for for the overall portfolio, and there are various ways we can read across. One one way is to just to not try and adjust for the different durations in the portfolio that are often referenced, and just assume that if they're receiving an offer at NAV, then, you know, assuming that their revenue forecast and then and they're not wildly different to to ours at at a two hour level and therefore assume that the that the lower duration assets that we might own or do own are reasonable, then the the broad assumption is that this transaction is occurring at NAV.

Speaker 1

And that's that's obviously $1.00 9 versus our current share price of about $67.68, I think, today. The the other read across this, let's assume that we do get to a two hour duration because that is absolutely an interim step that we'll get to. Value our portfolio on that basis and deduct the cost of those upgrades because that's so accretive today, that that produces a more favor even more favorable read across. And there are various ways of of reading across in in alternative ways and encourage you to to read in the various analyst notes that that get to a NAV plus kind of read across to the extent that that's useful. So, you know, we're we're we're excited that that deal has taken place.

Speaker 1

We we we're glad to see that that NAV does matter because all all of these deals have been or or this deal and their two bidders as well, which is helpful, Reference NAV, they don't reference anything else. So so that's clearly positive. James, do you want any add anything on that? Or

Speaker 2

No. I I think that probably covers everything. Obviously, comparing on a per megawatt basis is usually a helpful way to do comparisons for other approaches and similar results come up when you look at it on a per megawatt basis as well. Obviously, we're expecting to be a one point six hour duration once all of this is fully built, and that's what we're valuing in the portfolio at the moment versus a two hour duration. So, actually, the the difference between the portfolios is is not that great once all of these assets are built.

Speaker 1

Thank you, James. And and the initial augmentations will take us to two hours as well, so it's absolutely a realistic assumption.

Operator

And may maybe we could we can move on to capital allocation Yep. And the merits of share buybacks versus dividends. Now recognizing this is a, obviously, a board decision recognizing that, you know, we're going through a a a an important refinancing at this stage. But questions around the the the the possible probable and timing of the reintroduction of a dividend, the merits versus the merits of share buybacks, and also, you know, how the manager's thinking about, you know, investing in for for future growth.

Speaker 1

Thank you, Rupert. Yeah. So it's it's a a both a qualitative and quantitative exercise. You know, what what should this business be doing with its capital over time? So, clearly, dividends, this is an income sector.

Speaker 1

And and while we've always talked about being an income and growth fund and company, and therefore reinvesting some capital, paying a dividend is is is imperative to us and, I believe, our investors. And and we we we basically can't wait to to be able to say something about that upon the refinancing this quarter if all goes smoothly. So we look forward to sharing that detail and to provide confidence that this business is in a position to to to make distributions, let alone the level. In terms of the level, clearly, it's a board decision. The the manager the us we we will advise the board on our views.

Speaker 1

But there are significant, exciting, incremental investment opportunities within the portfolio. I do think that both strategically, we we we must do the augmentations because they're they're quick and relatively low risk and and straightforward to do and yield attractive returns. And and clearly, the new pipeline being funded the way we expect to fund it is also extremely accretive. One simple calculation one might carry out is to simply look at the valuation that we use in the portfolio for two hour projects, attenuate that if you if you if you prefer to from from an NAV perspective, and compare that with and I'm gonna give a ballpark figure here, which we expect to outperform of half a million per megawatts of of two hour project construction to very significant uplift in in in you know, or very positive NPV of of those of those for those projects. So I think there's very, very strong justification for building new capacity in a measured way.

Speaker 1

And then in terms of buybacks, well, clearly, will depend on on where the share price is whilst once the capital becomes available. That we find that there are different views within our investor base in terms of the value of buybacks. Personally, I'm a proponent of of them. I think that, you know, especially at these sorts of levels, that they are very accretive. But they but they increase leverage, and they and they they don't increase our scale.

Speaker 1

And scale is important strategically in this industry. So and that's that's the qualitative point, I suppose.

Operator

Thank you. And, Ben, talking about scale Yeah. There there are one or two questions here around the financing of the 695 694 megawatt project pipeline. So the question is that the 25 to 30% debt ratio would release approximately a hundred and 50,000,000 of further debt. How do you intend to fund the remainder of the augmentations and the, obviously, the the the pipeline of of new projects that you've highlighted?

Speaker 1

Thanks, Rupert. Yeah. The there there are various different sources of funds available to us, and the majority of the funds required for the new project will come from this senior debt, which is, as I mentioned, I think earlier, project finance, which is not cross collateralized with the existing portfolio, so it doesn't impact in a downside scenario the the going concern status of of the existing portfolio. It's a diversified portfolio, and that's what's required under investment trust listing rules. But in addition to that senior debt, we've got access to, naturally, our ongoing cash flow generation to the extent that it's not paid out as a dividend or used for buybacks.

Speaker 1

We can make that work harder for us by timing the repayments or payments for equipment and milestones for construction out, and that is definitely an option in today's marketplace. So that's another feature of of our construction and and the and the source of funds. And then, of course, there's a there's a source of equity that's available at at a at a project level. So it rather rather same but different in terms of what we're doing at the augmentation of our Glastonbury project, which is the project that where we're seeking equity funds as we announced at our Capital Markets Day. There's a similar manner that that we can raise funds for new projects and and equity at that level.

Speaker 1

So, essentially, like any projects, there's a there's an equity layer. There's, you know, primarily senior debt, but there can be other forms of debt and or financing that that that also complete the picture. And it's gonna be very much the same for for our portfolio, our new portfolio, if you like, on incremental assets. And on our existing portfolio, it's very much replacing the existing debt with project finance, but with with those different features, you know, longer term, lower cost, amortizing, more favorable covenants. But we will upscale this a little bit and draw down in due course the the necessary amounts to carry out the the augmentations that we have planned for this year and next.

Speaker 1

So, hopefully, that provides the detail that some people might be after.

Operator

That's helpful.

Speaker 1

Thank you. Course, of course.

Operator

So next question. Can you please discuss the impact of a likely move to zone or pricing? And then you might just also within that just touch on queue reform and how it impacts the portfolio at all.

Speaker 1

In indeed. Those are two pretty different topics. Zonal pricing is is first of something that I'm this is personal opinion based on what what we're seeing now is is something that we do expect to come in. Zonal pricing basically turns the national electricity market to a significantly subdivided national market where there's a price for each zone. Sometimes it can go down to a node, so you might hear the word expression nodal pricing where a node is basically, a a substation, a switching point in the network.

Speaker 1

So it could go it cover a handful of substations or it could cover just an individual one, and that's the way, for example, Texas works, and there are 2,000 power prices being quoted all the time in in that market. The the reason for doing this, and you you you the most outspoken proponents of this that we've heard is is is probably Octopus Energy, is that if there's significant renewable generation in a market, in a in a submarket, in a zone, there's no reason for the marginal supply to be or to be met by gas in that particular region, which means that suddenly the power price is being set not by gas at whatever price it's at based on the region that required that gas or regions that required gas. It can actually be set according to the marginal price of electricity set by renewables much more. And so suddenly, in certain areas, the power price has the potential to really fall. Going and so in in areas like Scotland, potentially in the summer in areas like Cornwall and other parts of the country, power prices could become extremely low.

Speaker 1

And and in in the in the South, it like, you know, take it London area and and and other highly populated areas, we'd expect that gas continue to set the price. It might actually have a slightly upward effect on on on power prices in in the short term. But what that unlocks then is a marketplace that's driven by local pricing, which will then lead to investment decisions made at that local level. And therefore, the initial picture when zonal pricing comes in is the picture at that time, and incremental investments made on the back of what that marketplace shows will then quickly, we believe, amend that picture as more capacity comes on. So if there's too much renewable capacity, more renewables won't get built there until they're locked and locked of batteries, for example.

Speaker 1

Or and and if power prices are really high down south, it's likely that more batteries get built down south as well for for different reasons, and more renewables will certainly get built there and so on. So and that's the intention is to mitigate the the spiraling cost of of of network build out. So we're we're we're we're supportive of zonal pricing. Most generators are not because they've got legacy businesses, but being diversified across the country, any positives and negatives for our portfolio would be broadly canceled out. Time will tell.

Speaker 1

And but we do think it's the right thing for for the country in terms of get trying to get a a a downward sort of pressure on our power prices. And then in terms of queue reform, that's a very near term so zonal pricing probably won't kick in until the '20 early twenty thirties is is is our best guess. It might happen sooner, but and there's so much that needs to happen ahead of that that's likely to be several years away. In the meantime, we do have this Q reform and labors labour now in government have the ambition to to achieve clean power 2030 or CP 30 as it's abbreviated, which is to decarbonize our electricity by then through the rolling out of the technologies that are essentially available, which is essentially the solar and wind pipeline that exists and the battery pipeline because, frankly, that is the only meaningful technology established technology that's available to provide the flexibility around that renewable build out within this 2030 time frame and probably in reality in any time frame. But there have been all the speculative assumptions made around the potential for small modular nuclear reactors, hydrogen, liquefied air, even pumped storage, and so on.

Speaker 1

So we think that this actually helps build the case for for batteries much more clearly, and and the support that we've seen from government for batteries is great in that context because it's helped focus NISO's mind and and the other stakeholders' minds, DESNA's and Ofgem as well in terms of the importance of batteries in the short term. The the key thing about queue reform is is is about reforming the queue. So the the pipeline had become enormous, but there are a lot of projects developed by unfunded developers in terms of their ability to build those projects in the hope that they would sell them on. But that reaches the limit in terms of what the market needs, And the queue had got much longer than the need, and the queue reform process is all about effectively giving NISO more power to move the queue around and provide an acceleration to projects that are effectively funded and ready and push back and make much more uncertain projects that really were were getting in the way. Because until now, it's been in in in order of grid connection award and very difficult to kick projects out of the queue.

Speaker 1

This reform process should help projects that are fundable and buildable in the near term get accelerated or just to get built in the time frame that they were expecting. So it's been an incredible process, but still it's still ongoing. It's just been approved by Ofgem. There's there's there's what's called an evidence window that that opens and closes probably in July and August this year during which people submit the status of their projects. On the back of which, they are awarded a new grid connection offer, and NESA will be re awarding the same or amended grid connection offers to 6,500 projects in wind, solar, and batteries, and and potentially other technologies as well.

Speaker 1

So it's an enormous process. It's hopefully a one time process because it did create quite a lot of uncertainty for a while, but we're we think we're through that.

Speaker 2

Yeah. And we're we're well placed with our portfolio in terms of the queue as well. So

Speaker 1

Yep. Possibly. In in summary, we're we're in a good position with our

Speaker 2

existing project. Just to add to the zone of pricing, just broaden that slightly. We are very supportive of merchant market signals. We're lacking some of that at the moment, and some suggestions about subsets and things like that can muddy the water slightly. So so no pricing is a move which should create greater volatility on pricing, which is great for batteries.

Speaker 2

But generally speaking, if you have the market signal there, we should be building the right technologies for those areas. So you might see longer duration in certain zones which need it. So, for example, north of the border, if there's a constraint for long periods, you might find four or five hour batteries become the the use case there. You might find in other locations, one to two hours is still preferable. So the market signals that you get from that should hopefully design the appropriate technologies to fit into those areas, which might support some of this LDAS requirement without the need for some of the LTAZ conversations that are going on as well.

Speaker 2

And so more generally, we we support kind of the merchant signals because that's what builds out the business case, and that's what merchant our batteries particularly do well on is the merchant environment.

Speaker 1

Just to quickly for everyone's benefit, LDAS is long duration energy storage. It's a it's a new what's called a cap and floor scheme, a bit like a subsidy scheme with a a minimum floor contract that's being introduced this year by by governments administered by Ofgem, where projects with minimum eight hour durations will be provided with a with a contract if if they're awarded one. And they're twenty five year contracts, so quite interesting development in the market there.

Operator

Thanks, Ben. Thanks, James. Can I move on to a question here around the sort of Octopus tolling revenues? Mhmm. And also the the other sort of contracting news that that that have been referred to.

Operator

So one or two questions here that that follow on from one another. How will the Octopus tolling revenues roll off in the next few years? Mhmm. Assume it's two years from the point of transfer with circa 200 megawatts still to move across.

Speaker 1

Mhmm.

Operator

Can you also give further information on the structure of the contracted revenues with revenue floor you are targeting? Why is this attractive to an investment grade offtake versus a tolling agreement?

Speaker 1

Great. Thank you, Rupert. Quite detailed questions there. So, yeah, there are there are 14 underlying tolling agreements. So the 14 assets have been contracted.

Speaker 1

And, absolutely, imagine, you know, sort of different assets going on to toll and then coming off that individual tolling contract. And so those had started last year will conclude in 2026. Those starting this year will conclude in 2027. And we'll, in some cases, in many cases, in fact, back to back that with fresh contract starts that we're securing now for the purposes of the debt that will then extend for several years beyond that. Other contracts will start as the new projects are built, and other contracts will start much sooner because they're not under toll.

Speaker 1

So there's a combination of different contracts that we're we're looking to secure around the existing octopus arrangements as it as it rolls on and off. In terms of flaws and tolls in the context of the off taker, the off taker has an interest in in in securing tolls depending on who they are. An octopus, for example, being a utility has has an actual use case for for tolling in the context of their end customer base to naturally balance this supply and demand that they're trying to sort of manage. So they've got natural end customers that they can assess in terms of what likely demand's gonna be on a half hourly basis, and then they have renewable supply that the whole system has as well. And so it creates a a effectively a a different layer of balancing that's required at a utility level.

Speaker 1

And so that's that's attractive to a company like Octopus for for obvious reasons. They need that flexibility as they have less certain supply going forwards. And so that's the attractiveness there. But flaws, because they are flaws, are are at the highest levels that you can achieve in terms of in terms of contracted revenue. And because they are at their highest higher levels, the the the financial risk to a counterparty is greater should should they, you know, not not that get that swap effectively that they're offering ourselves wrong in terms of being the wrong side of the trade.

Speaker 1

And therefore, the ability to do a floor for very long periods, let's say, to ten years is is is quite rare. So floors tend to be shorter term, but very attractive, especially on for those businesses that use these these sorry. Tolls are attractive to councilors, especially to those that are looking into to hedge their businesses, and they've got a reason for hedging already. On the floor side, I I would really describe that as as a a counterparty. Even if they are a utility, the counterparty would look at this as more like a trading trading service.

Speaker 1

So an optimizer, whether any of our optimizers, the the larger ones with large balance sheets can offer floors as well. They've got the balance sheet to do that, but those would be at lower levels. And and the risk of those floors or revenues falling below those floors is quite low, but important for us to to secure the financing and attractive to the counterparty because they secure a higher revenue share. But as I mentioned earlier, it's not a massive revenue share, and so it's a it's a good, I think, win win for the market. I think it's a very efficient structure where we continue to capture almost all of the upside and incrementally maybe 5% less of the upside than where we were before.

Speaker 1

Does that help? Hope that helps.

Operator

Thanks, Ben. One or two financial questions here, Zhao. So I'll sort of try and give you these fairly rapid fire. But what do you think the steady state EBITDA margin should be for the company?

Speaker 1

Very ballpark for new and and and new two hour projects, upwards of 75%.

Operator

Okay. What will the leverage be post the refinancing?

Speaker 1

So the the the the leverage sorry to not give a direct answer, but hopefully, this will clear some clarity. When you lock in the new financing, so we'll have peak debt on the existing facility of $1.07 5,000,000 offset by a cash position. Mhmm. Let's say we're at $1.06 5 net debt when we secure able to sign the debt. We will upsize that by a certain amount.

Speaker 1

We're not giving it, but it's a modest amount to to to fund the incremental augmentations that we're planning this year. And that will immediately start to amortize. And so that's the existing facility that starts to amortize. Then we put the new projects into construction, and those will see the debt levels increase as we go into construction and start paying for those projects with that peaking as these projects go into commissioning in two years' time, circa. And so you've got a declining position on debt on the existing portfolio and an increasing position.

Speaker 1

And when you combine those two, the the the the you basically, it would be the wrong thing to do to take this facility on the operational portfolio and the new construction assets and add them together because that peak will never be reached. They peak at different times. One peaks right at the start, and the other one peaks at the at the at the conclusion of commissioning. And so the impact of that is that we we have a lower peak than might be suggested by the combined facilities, which I appreciate we haven't given the details of anyway. But it does mean that we think that we can carry out all this this this growth with with debt peaking less than 30% of GAV.

Operator

Okay. And and and it presumably that that that will come down a bit depending upon the equity that might go into the SPVs alongside that debt.

Speaker 1

So That's that's

Operator

But I think what you're saying is that the cap is gonna be somewhere around 25 to 30%.

Speaker 1

Twenty five to 30%. And just to highlight that this is on a GAV, and therefore NAV, you know, so NAV NAV is GAV is NAV plus debt. A NAV that is increasing as a function of the the the future cash flows increasing as as we build new capacity as well. So the the capacity the debt capacity of this portfolio grows as we add new installed capacity.

Operator

K. What is the CapEx for the pipeline and augmentation approximately?

Speaker 1

So I we've some numbers about what the the increased capacity will be. So if we're taking the existing portfolio to two hours plus in the next year and a bit Yep. Rather out of the 1.5 gigawatt hours that we plan to do longer term, we've highlighted in the past a range of a hundred thousand to £200,000 per megawatt hour to augment those projects, we would suggest people use a number towards the lower end of that range as as a as a guess. And then in terms of new projects, I I can't remember if I'd highlight it, but I think I did. Just assume half a million per megawatt of total capital required all in soup to nuts for for a new two hour project.

Speaker 1

You know, that's development fees, all the soft costs, of course, all the hard costs and grid costs for for the new capacity and multiply that by the $6.09 4. So that that would be, you know, a number that we'd like to come inside of when we combine those two.

Operator

Yep. Okay. Thank you. What return on investment and return on equity do you believe you can achieve on new investments in the three year plan? And what are the biggest risks to achieving these?

Speaker 1

Thank you, Rupert. So on on a new project, if you take the revenue assumptions, I think almost anyone could build a model out of this, actually. We've got a a curve. You've got an EBITDA margin assumption. So you've got a sort of outlined very high level cash flow.

Speaker 1

We've I've given you a a a outline cost, and you can assume reasonably high levels of leverage to cost, not to value, to cost. And but the unlevered IRRs you'll find if you run such a model would be in the teens. Yep. And and then leveraging those up at, you know, six ish percent, obviously creates very attractive equity returns subject to those curves being correct. And then when you sensitize that

Operator

So teens up to mid to high teens?

Speaker 1

On an unlevered basis. Yes. So healthy levels if if we believe the curves. Yeah. Of course, we do.

Speaker 1

But if one didn't, you you can still achieve attractive returns and or downside protection if you if you end up seeing an outturn that's lower. So that's on the new construction where the majority of the capital will be deployed. It's potentially even more attractive on augmentations, especially from one to two hours today.

Operator

Thank you. Ben mentioned possibly long duration storage going forward. Is this with using existing battery technology, or is this something else on the horizon? So we've we've we've been quite vocal on this topic, and and we we wrote an open letter

Speaker 1

to government and Ofgem and NISO just last week because the agenda is is going to take place in in in the near future, in the the third and fourth quarters of late third quarter and and fourth quarter of this year for for projects to get built up to a capacity. This is what the government's targeting of five to seven gigawatts. And contemplated technology for this long duration, which is upwards of eight hour duration. There are some pump storage projects which go all the way up to twenty four hours. The complicated technology is pump storage with some earlier stage technologies given a separate track so that they have the ability to compete in their own environment.

Speaker 1

We we we we we wrote the letter really to say, create a level playing field for batteries because batteries now can be built if they have the commercial case, which the cap and floor would provide to eight hours all the way up to fifteen to twenty hours or longer. And so we just need the the the commercial incentive, which this cap and floor provides, and we're confident that we can outperform at least a certain a large part of of the pump storage pipeline. Time will tell when the tenders have been completed. But we've just requested that when the cost benefit analysis is carried out, that the the the merits of of battery technology and the ability to build them in a much shorter time frame than pumped storage projects, which take, like, you know, from what I've read, seven years or so, that's a very significant benefit in terms of achieving clean power in 2030. So, yes, it's absolutely very similar technology.

Speaker 1

The technology the battery technology is evolving all the time, but, essentially, it's very similar technology to to what we're using. It would just be configured differently. And we're excited at at at at getting some of our capacity awarded a contract.

Operator

Thank you. There there's a further question around dividends and not clear about where the priorities lie. Can these be reinstated in '25, or is it 2026 onwards? And I think all I would say there is that the you know, subject to completion of the refinancing, the board together with the manager have been very clear that the aim is to reinstate a dividend later in 2025, and there'll be more on that in due course.

Speaker 2

Yes.

Operator

So going on, could you speak to the potential impact from tariffs on your outlook as they currently stand?

Speaker 1

Yeah. So at at this stage, we're we're not seeing any negative impacts of of what's going on in in The US with with everyone else in the world, almost. There's there's no new tariff dynamic between The UK and China. And so what what are the impacts? We've seen interest rates come down modestly year to date, which is modestly positive for our refinancing.

Speaker 1

Spreads have not been impacted negatively at this stage, and hopefully, won't. So the overall picture on the debt is is is marginally positive. Overall, I wouldn't say necessarily in the tariff context. The the dollar weakening in the in the near term and the fact that a lot of the the battery pricing is done in dollars is is likely to be a positive as well as all the components. So that's that's a positive for a significant part of our CapEx, all to be confirmed once we actually place final orders.

Speaker 1

More detail of that will be provided as well as we as we conclude arrangements. And then and then just generally speaking, there's clear disruption taking place to the renewable sector in The US through delays in investment tax credit trades and so on, and and trying to renegotiate terms on offshore wind farms and so on. So there's there's a lot of uncertainty there that is is probably resulting in in additional supply of renewable equipment and batteries trying to find a home elsewhere and including Europe. So and certainly, the battery pricing environment has improved further this year.

Operator

There's a question here. It's probably more directed to the board, but I'll I'll mention it. If you got an offer for the company at close to NAV, would you accept it? I'm hoping that you resist and back long term growth in NAV. And I think rather than trying to ask answer that question, I think, you know, the the the the aim of this company is to grow.

Operator

Ben's talked a lot about augmentations. We've talked a lot about the new projects. We've talked about refinancing. We've talked about putting in more contracted revenues to underpin that refinancing. You know?

Operator

And and the aim is not to stop at 1.7 gigawatts. But it might I'll just hand over to Ben to you and and James just to talk about the potential NAV growth in this company Yeah. From the current one zero nine.

Speaker 1

Yeah. So the current one zero nine and and and $622,000,000 of of of absolute NAV in pound terms, there's there's we we see a significant percentage increase coming from the existing new pipeline using the metrics I I I shared earlier and and, you know, give a range. Anyone can do this calculation. You know, 30 to 50% growth in NAV is is is not unreasonable over the next few years, all else being equal. So we're we're we're excited about the potential growth just from this three year plan and and and potential additional growth we can unlock elsewhere.

Speaker 1

And that's that's really from the first two prongs of the three year plan. In other words, the augmentations and the and the new pipeline. Additional growth is is anticipated through through the third prong, which is the alternative revenues, which we've given little details about because it's it's capital light and implementation. It just requires quite a lot of effort in terms of arranging things in a certain way to to unlock that revenue, and and and that would obviously create an extra leg. And and and there's no need to discount that today unless investors would like to.

Speaker 1

But that that's an extra leg. So we see a huge amount of value. And so we take out at NAV. Today's NAV, think, is gonna look stale quite quickly is is is is one way of putting it.

Operator

Thank you. If you can build at 500, why is Harmony Energy Income Trust being bought at over 800?

Speaker 1

Because the the NPVs of the projects are justified at that level for the for the buyer. But building building a project is is a multiyear process. You you you've got to secure the connections. You've got to know what you're doing in terms of progressing the design, both at an electrical level, civils level, protections, and and and and and just overall integration into the network. Yeah.

Speaker 1

It it it requires quite a lot of skill and dedication, especially as the projects get larger, which is a necessity in this sector. You've got to really understand the battery technology. So developing a project, you know, the cost is not the only factor that that contributes to value. It's the the rolling of that that out, getting it through construction, getting it connected as we've demonstrated. Sadly, you know, it takes longer than we wanted to.

Speaker 1

It's only getting harder. There's there's so much taking place both at a network level, solar, wind, new connections, so many changes in legislation around, you know, the skip rate topic as a as a fundamental issue, the CP 30 in terms of the ambitions, NISO's new powers under CP 30 and and and the technical codes that are changing as a result of that. The the the modernization of the control room, I mentioned zonal. There's the long duration piece. Everything's on in on on the move.

Speaker 1

And and so there's there's an awful lot that we we all need to understand and stay on top of to to really develop a portfolio and business that that works. So I suspect there's there's a portfolio value there. It's the fact that it's operational. It's the fact that it's it's through the queue and and is there and exists as opposed to as opposed to a lot of projects that will never get built and therefore, essentially worthless over if they're if they're too long dated in terms of connection date. So, yeah, I I you know, essentially, that there's a confidence there that the volatility that will come from the much higher levels of renewables will will create the business opportunity for batteries.

Speaker 1

And let's not forget the renewables we've observed and anyone could observe generate power at anywhere between 200 of demand at any moment in time. And that can happen increasingly at any time of day because the wind can blow at any time of day. It's not just a function of solar, and demand can really vary, and that the demand profile is changing as EVs take off. So the the opportunity there and the need fundamental need to balance the market with batteries is is absolutely there. Anyway, I'm I'm I'm you know, I think there's a good business here.

Operator

Great. Ben, just a couple more questions. I'm conscious we're eight minutes past the hour. Okay. One is on, are there still international ambitions within grid?

Operator

And then the last one is, are Nissan doing enough to help batteries?

Speaker 1

So so international is is absolutely an ambition. Appreciate that we we talk to to this much more concretely in the past, in particular, The US. We we we see certain markets, including The US and other major countries in Europe, developing positively. And if the opportunity arises once we've bedded down the three year plan to expand internationally, we we would be very keen to to to to revisit that and and and very seriously. In terms of NISO, are are they doing enough?

Speaker 1

There's definitely a different sense of urgency between an organization that needs to balance the market and worry about what's available to them versus a business like ours that's absolutely dependent on being used as we should be. And and it's it's it's unfortunately the wrong way around. So the message we'd always sent to Niso is really appreciate the impact of their decisions and rate of progress on our business and and and the and industry, both in terms of revenues, but also investability. Are they doing enough? The the the effort has has really ramped up.

Speaker 1

There are a couple of important changes taking place this year that will result, I hope, in the open balancing platform, which is effectively the new operating platform for for the for the control room, for that automated algorithmically driven platform as opposed to human driven platform to be the domain for all dispatching of technologies in the BM rather than just batteries, leaving the human uncertainty or human decision making elsewhere. So that should be a very powerful shift that takes place towards the end of this year. The other one, of course, is a change which will allow the control room to actually measure and or have a measurement of the capacity in a battery at any moment in time in terms of the state of charge as opposed to just guessing at it and assuming thirty minutes, which is what they have to do at the moment. The the that that limitation is is very has been very significant. We saw a very positive development when we went from the fifteen minute rule to the thirty minute rule and the thirty minute assumption in terms of what's stored in a battery.

Speaker 1

Moving that to what is will have another very dramatic impact. So that with a couple of other changes I won't dwell on now, I I hope will will have the the desired impact. But there really is a need for confidence for this for the momentum to be maintained and for this not to slip. And I do think they're doing everything that's necessary.

Operator

And, James, thank you very much. I I'm I'm just gonna finish with a back of the envelope calculation I've done, which shoot me down if if I've got these sums wrong. But the three year plan seeks to have 1.7 gigawatts. Assuming a two hour average battery post augmentations, read across to Harmony at eight fifty megawatts, gives you a market cap of about 1,400,000,000.0. Take off debt, and you're still up comfortably over a billion market cap versus $3.90 today.

Operator

Where are my numbers wrong, Ben? No. They may be wrong in terms of execution risk, but where are my numbers wrong?

Speaker 1

And that you've used all part triggers that we all agree with. So 1.7 gigawatts, actually actually, 1.8, two hours, absolutely, 850 k per megawatt. Yep. Reasonable. And so and and you can run those metrics in different ways for EBITDA and EBITDA multiples and so on as well.

Speaker 1

So yep. Nope. That's our ambition.

Operator

Okay. Well, thank thank you both very much for your time today. I'd like to thank again all all our shareholders for their patience of what's been an extremely difficult time. We're still hugely excited about the opportunity ahead for this company. As Ben has articulated, it's still a growth story.

Operator

The aim of the board and the manager is to reinstate dividends at the appropriate time later this year. We're working hard on the the refinancing and the contractual elements of of this portfolio to make sure that it's in a in a sound position to grow going forward. So thank you everyone for your attendance this morning. If we didn't get through all the questions, I did try to cluster them. We'll follow-up individually and look forward to seeing everyone soon.

Operator

Thank you.

Speaker 1

Thank you, everyone. Thank you.

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Earnings Conference Call
Gresham House Energy Storage H2 2024
00:00 / 00:00