TFI International Q1 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
April 24, 2025

There are 14 speakers on the call.

Operator

Good day, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you for standing by. Welcome to TFI International's First Quarter twenty twenty five Results Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode. Following the presentation, we will conduct a question and answer session.

Operator

Callers will be limited to one question and a follow-up. Again, that's one question and a follow-up so that we can get to as many callers as possible. Further instructions for entering the queue will be provided at that time. Please be advised that this conference call will contain statements that are forward looking in nature and subject to a number of risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially. I would also like to remind everyone that this conference call is being recorded on 04/24/2025.

Operator

Joining us on today's call are Alain Bedard, Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer and David Zaprisseng, Chief Financial Officer. I'll now turn the call over to Alain Bedard. Please go ahead, sir.

Speaker 1

All right. Well, thank you. Thanks for that operator and we appreciate everyone being on our call today. After market closed yesterday, we reported our quarterly results amidst continued economic uncertainty and the resulting slowdown in freight volume across the industry. Despite cyclical challenges, we're pleased to have again generated strong free cash flow of over 190,000,000 which as you've heard me say many times is a primary focus of ours.

Speaker 1

Over time, it's this free cash flow that allows us to maintain a strong balance sheet and strategically invest in both organic growth and attractive M and A, while returning excess capital to shareholders whenever possible. Taking a look at our consolidated results, we generated total revenue before fuel surcharge of 1,700,000,000 up from $1,600,000,000 a year earlier, supported by the Danske acquisition a year ago this month. The industry wide slump in volumes, however, resulted in operating income of $115,000,000 or an operating margin of 6.7% relative to $152,000,000 and a margin of 9,400,000.0 in the prior year period. Quarterly adjusted net income of $56,000,000 was down from $93,000,000 and adjusted EPS of $0.76 was down from 1.24 a year earlier. Our cash generated by operating activity came in at $194,000,000 down marginally from $2.00 $1,000,000 in the first quarter of twenty twenty four.

Speaker 1

Our free cash flow, as I mentioned, was a solid $192,000,000 which was up meaningfully from $137,000,000 benefiting from favorable working capital, strong management of capital expenditures and of course, the hard work of our talented team members across the organization who continue to focus on operational excellence, especially during slower times for the industry. I'll next provide an overview of first quarter results for each of our three business segments, beginning with LTL. LTL was 39% of segmented revenue before fuel surcharge, which was down 13% year over year to $679,000,000 Operating income of $47,000,000 compares to $85,000,000 in the year earlier period with margin reflecting typical Q1 seasonality consistent with what we saw the prior year. The LTL operating ratio came in at 93.1% versus 89.2% in the first quarter of twenty twenty four, and our LTL return on invested capital was 14.4%. Turning to Truckload, we generated $666,000,000 of revenue before fuel surcharge or 38% of the segmented total, and this was up from $398,000,000 a year earlier due to the Daseke acquisition.

Speaker 1

Operating income for truckload was $49,000,000 up from $41,000,000 in the prior year period. Our truckload OR was 93,700,000.0 relative to 89,600,000.0 a year earlier and our industrial end market are exposed to tariff related uncertainty, which was evident during the first quarter before the April 2 announcement. However, we saw improvement in our Canadian OR, while specialized was in line with normal seasonality. Our return on invested capital for truckload was 6.7%. Wrapping up the business segment overview, logistics is 22% of segmented revenue before fuel surcharge or $385,000,000 for the quarter, down from $442,000,000 in the first quarter of twenty twenty four.

Speaker 1

Logistics operating income was $31,000,000 compared to $40,000,000 the prior year, and that's an operating margin of 8.1% versus 9.1%, while our return invested capital was 17%. Moving right along, the solid free cash flow of $192,000,000 during the first quarter help us maintain our strong balance sheet, which is always a focus of ours. We ended March with a funded debt to EBITDA ratio of 2.21. During the quarter, we repurchased $56,000,000 worth of shares, which combined with the dividend payout equates to 94,000,000 of excess cash returned to our shareholders during the quarter, which has always been an important objective of ours. Lastly, turning to our business outlook for the second quarter of twenty twenty five, we currently expect EPS in the range of $1.25 to $1.4 based on trends we've seen thus far in Q2 and assuming no major change in the macro environment.

Speaker 1

In addition, for the full year, we expect net CapEx to be approximately $200,000,000 And with that, operator, Dave and I would be happy to take questions. If you could please open the lines.

Operator

Thank you. And we will now begin the question and answer session. To withdraw your question, you may press star followed by the number two. With that, our first question comes from the line of Ravi Shanker with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Speaker 2

Hey, Greg. Good morning. This is Christine McGarvey on for Ravi. Thank you guys. Very helpful.

Speaker 2

Appreciate that. Can you maybe just unpack a little bit more high end, low end of that? I know it's not not a massive range, but just how you guys are thinking about that. And then any thoughts on full year? Clearly, visibility is quite limited, but any scenario analysis you guys are thinking through, particularly on the recession side of things, if that comes to fruition, the business might perform?

Speaker 1

Yes, well, what I could say is that guys, because of all this uncertainty, the best we could do is to provide a quarterly kind of guidance, which we just stated between 1.2 dollars maybe at the higher range of $1.4 with what we know today. I mean, you have to understand that when you look at our specialized truckload in North America, we've been really affected because our end customers are sitting on the fence waiting to see where this is going to all go, right? Where are we going to go with that? So this is why it's very difficult for us to predict, okay, the year until we have a much clearer picture of what's going to happen with those tariffs. We know that there's lots of discussion going on, but so far we have not seen any results of all these discussions.

Speaker 1

So this is why based on what we know of April, that's why we're in a position to say, well, we believe that TFI can attain an EPS in that range of $1.25 to $1.4 We also confirm reduced CapEx, right, because we're not using our trucks to the full extent because the volumes are not where they should normally be. So this is why our CapEx now are going down from 300 on a normal yearly basis to about 200,000,000 right? And you look at our Q1, our CapEx was minimal, right? It's always the same. Last year was more, but we'll have the next three quarters, okay, we're going to be going back with more CapEx, okay, to get that $200,000,000 range for the full year.

Speaker 2

Very helpful. Appreciate that. And if I could just ask one more, maybe just digging in on The U. S. LTL a bit more.

Speaker 2

Can you just parse out to the extent you can, you know, how much of some of the year over year pressure we're seeing in operating income is idiosyncratic versus, you know, the market maybe being a bit more challenging and, you know, if it is idiosyncratic, kind of any updated thoughts on trajectory of OR improvement there?

Speaker 1

You know what, if you look at our Q1 result, which are very disappointing, I mean, we had a very difficult month of January, very difficult month of February. But we made some change in the leadership at that time. Mid February, we made some changes because I mean, were not heading in the right direction. What I could say is that when I look at April, when I looked at March, I mean, I can see some very important change. The morale of the troop has never been so good.

Speaker 1

I mean, the guys are working hard and under the leadership of Cal and Chris and Keith, I feel pretty good about where we're going. I mean, the name of the game and I said that on Q4, we've lost so much the small and medium sized account and we replaced that with more like corporate accounts with lower margin or maybe sometimes negative margin. That trend is reversed right now. So we're starting to see growth on the small and medium sized account. At the same time, we are replacing some major accounts where we lose money.

Speaker 1

So I feel really good. The guys now are very well focused and that's also based on what we're seeing so far in April. We see a change over there. The guys are really working hard on the cost side, at the same time on the revenue side to add this company in the right direction. I've always said that there's no reason why this company cannot be a sub-ninety OR and we've not done that so far.

Speaker 1

I understand, I get that after four years of buying the company, but I think that we're on the right track with this leadership, the plan that these guys are working on, I feel really good.

Speaker 3

Yeah. And Christine, I would just add that when you look at Q1's OR in The US LTL, it's 160 basis points deterioration relative to Q4, which is exactly the same as the seasonal deterioration last year Q4 to Q1. So you can think about this quarter as the same as as last quarter. But we've made changes, and we're seeing those changes start to show some green shoots.

Speaker 2

Great. Really appreciate the thoughts. Thanks, guys.

Speaker 4

Thank you.

Operator

Your next question I'm sorry. Your next question comes from the line of Jordan Alliger Please go ahead.

Speaker 5

Yes. Hi. Just two follow-up LTL questions. One, can you maybe perhaps update some of the operational improvement efficiency plans that you guys have talked about in the past, whether it be technology or other efforts to improve things? And then secondly, how do you think about your pricing strategies now and the industry's pricing strategies given the ongoing softness in manufacturing, etcetera?

Speaker 5

Thanks.

Speaker 1

Very good question, Jordan. So in terms of technology, we've made a lot of progress within T Force rate over time. So one of the last leg that we're working on right now is we've implemented Optum for our line old planning. So we're not done with this improvement in technology on our line old, but at the same time, we're looking at something similar, probably Optum for our P and D. So we're going to be starting this project of Optum PND operation in Canada First, and then we'll move that to The US sometimes in 2025.

Speaker 1

So that's going to be helping us in do a better job on the planning and on the execution of our PND operation and the connection between Lino and PND at that time, okay, will help us do a better planning for the Lino. That's number one. Number two is that our software for pricing and master file management, that's been a rock in our shoe for so long. We've started the implementation of that early twenty twenty five and this is moving along. It's got it's taken us a little bit more time.

Speaker 1

But during the course of 2025, we should be done with that. Now, for sure, our pricing department right now, because our sales focus is growth now with our team. Our pricing guys are very busy going back to the sales team with a pricing proposal for customers because we've adjusted our approach to customer in the sense that we have to go back to the small and medium sized account. And these guys, they represent about 2% of our volume more today than they were just three months ago. So we are growing those small and medium sized account.

Speaker 1

And for sure that requires better pricing, better price okay, strategy for our pricing department, which these guys are working on. Anything you'd like to add on that, David? No. Good. Thank you.

Operator

And your next question comes from the line of Walter Spracklin with RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Speaker 6

Yes. Thanks very much. Alain, good morning. You mentioned uncertainty in your and macro uncertainty in your outlook and that giving a little bit of difficulty in planning it. I'm just curious whether you're seeing in the quarter meaningful shifts in buying patterns among your customers that are a result of that uncertainty and any color around that?

Speaker 6

And a little bit on as well on your market share, do you see any of those shifting buying or any of that customer adjustments is leading to them moving to lower price competitors? Are you losing share or are they just holding back on orders and volumes as a result of current environment? Just curious as to what you're seeing in the near term and what those patterns are in terms of your competitive environment.

Speaker 1

Yes. You know what, Walter? Very good question. Think about if you are a U. S.

Speaker 1

Farmer right now, you don't feel pretty good because your main customer China is just saying, we don't want your product. So one of our customers are industrial based. So our customers are manufacturing tractors, they're manufacturing agricultural equipment, etcetera. Those guys don't sell a lot because their customer, the farmer are insecure right now. They don't know what's going to happen, right?

Speaker 1

So that's just one small example of what we're going through right now in our U. S. Truckload operation, our specialty truckload, which is a lot of it is flatbed. Our industrial based customers are just waiting, okay, because their customers don't know what's going to happen. So this is, if you look at our miles, Q1 in industrial sector in our flatbed operation in Q1, we were down like 10% to 15% depending on the week.

Speaker 1

Today in April, still a lot of insecurity or instability, but now we're down to about high single digit, 8%, nine %, still down year over year. Now the only good thing that we're seeing so far is the rate per mile has improved. Strange to say that in a difficult environment normally you would say that the rate per mile will also be under pressure, but we're not seeing that. We see our rate per mile improving since, I would say probably mid March, that we're starting to see improvement year over year on the rate per mile. But the activity is down.

Speaker 1

So that's what we're seeing. In terms of what the market is doing, we don't see pressure on rates. Would it be either in Canada or in The U. S? For sure, our Canadian guys perform really well except in certain sector like steel.

Speaker 1

As we know, there's huge tariff on Canadian steels. So, our steel market is under pressure for sure in Canada. But there again, globally, our U. S. Truckload operation has been affected also by too much equipment.

Speaker 1

So if you remember, we had huge CapEx in Q2 and in Q3 and also in Q4 for our U. S. Specialty truckload operation. And also now the miles are down, so we have way too many trucks, way too many trailers, and that affects also our depreciation, but that will be corrected during the Q2 and Q3 of twenty five because as I said, we are lowering our CapEx to a normal level based on the activity level that we have today. Anything else that we may add on that David?

Speaker 1

No. Good.

Speaker 6

Just a second final question here on M and A. Can you update on what you're kind of budgeting in terms of any total tuck in M and A for the year? And just any comment on there was some activity here this morning with NLR being taken up by UPS in your Canadian market. Just any update on whether there's opportunities that are popping up now and is it something that you're actively looking at?

Speaker 1

You know what Walter, I mean, the M and A side, we just closed two very small deal in Q2, okay, that I mean, very small transaction. We have one transaction that we really liked, okay, but because of all this uncertainty on tariff, okay, we had to walk away from that deal. It was a transaction that we were really happy to do, but because of all this uncertainty, we said, no, forget about it. We can't touch that. Maybe later on, we'll see down the road once we have better clarity.

Speaker 1

So this is why our M and A in 2025, Walter, is going to be minimal. So our M and A is more buying back TFI, which we did in Q1, which we also bought back another 500,000.0 shares in April. And cautiously, this is going to be the M and A for us in 2025 because we're buying something that we know that is very undervalued, okay? Because we have to turn this U. S.

Speaker 1

LTL ship around to bring back confidence, and we'll do it. But in the meantime, nothing major for us in 2025, except the two small deals that we've done and the buying back of TFR stock. We want to keep our leverage in a conservative fashion. We don't want leverage to go higher than 2.5, which we've always said. So right now we're at 2.2.

Speaker 1

So this is where Q2 and Q3, we can come up with $0.75 of EPS. This is why when we look at the trend of April, we feel pretty good about the $1.25 to $1.4 which is going to help bring our leverage down, hopefully, in the next few quarters.

Speaker 6

Thank you very much for the time.

Speaker 1

Walter, pleasure, Walter.

Operator

And your next question comes from the line of Ariel Rosa with Citigroup. Please go ahead.

Speaker 7

Hi. Good morning, Alain and Dave. Thanks for taking the call. This is Ben Moore at Citi on for Ari. Wanted to just ask if you could share some thoughts on your U.

Speaker 7

S. LTL OR outlook for 2Q and full year '25 and similarly your EPS outlook for maybe full year '25 considering the 2Q one hundred twenty five and 01/1940?

Speaker 1

Yes, based on our forecast right now, we believe that sequentially Q2 should improve by about 200 basis points, right? So we're at 99, so we should go down to 97. But on top of that, we believe that there's also another at least 100 basis points of improvement from better market, better freight, etcetera, etcetera, and also better cost management on costs on the P and D side and on the line all side to a certain degree. So from, let's say, 99,000,000, we go down probably into Q2 to a 96 OR on the way down to closer to a 90 OR, hopefully 92, 90 three, something like that by the end of twenty twenty five. So that's the trend that the guys are working on.

Speaker 1

And let me tell you that the morale at T Force Rate has never been as good as what it is today. We've made some changes and the leadership, So our friend Keith that used to run all of T Force Rate, now he's focused only on the operating side of it. Chris, one of our EVPs at TFI is helping on the commercial side and Cal, one of our senior EVP, has taken over everything else, which is finance, IT, fleet, and the operation for sure working with Keith. So I feel pretty good where we're at with this change in leadership, and also the focus on growing those small and medium sized accounts, that killed us in Q3 and in Q4 in terms of profitability. And so the guys are on the right track, they're focused on the right thing, and I think that we're going to start to see some improvement there.

Speaker 7

Great, thanks. And also, maybe as a follow-up, thanks for sharing that you're replacing your SMB accounts with enterprise accounts, and it sounded like you just mentioned SMB. It's other way around.

Speaker 1

We're replacing the big account, the corporate account with the small account, which is completely opposite of what we were doing in Q3 and in Q4 of last year.

Speaker 7

Great, great. Thank you for that. Yes. And it sounds like it's up 2% sequentially. Can you discuss in more detail how you're doing this?

Speaker 7

Any progress in reducing the SMB customer attrition and and are you growing new accounts? Is it bringing back the same accounts, the same lanes, or different lanes? And are there any other customer segments similar to SMB that could be at risk of customer attrition and what you might be doing to reinforce customer retention in those segments?

Speaker 1

One of the first things that the new team has done is that, let's say that you go with a GRI of 5% and you have an account that runs an 85 OR and the guy just walked, right? Because he's an 85 OR and you had 5% and the market is soft, so the guy walked. So you lose an 85 OR account. So what the new team has said is that this is a little bit stupid in this kind of an environment. So instead of going with a DRI of 5% on an 85 OR account, how about if we just go with a 1% or 2% so that we don't lose this business, right?

Speaker 1

And we don't end up with a major churn, which happened to us in Q3 and in Q4, and we just hack smart. And then by keeping those accounts and growing the small, medium sized account, because our pricing is more a reflection profitability of the account instead of being just stupid and going ahead with a 5% global. And don't forget that all the large accounts will always negotiate that 5% down to 1% or 2% anyway. So let's be more smart and let's be more focused on keeping those small guys and growing that, which is completely the opposite of sadly we did in Q3 and in Q4 of last year. So in terms of better pricing for those small guys, for sure our pricing department, there's some things that they've been addressed like the weight per shipment.

Speaker 1

So if you look at our trend, our weight per shipment is about stable at about 1,200 pounds, which is acceptable, but we would prefer to get closer to 1,300. So this is where we made some small adjustment. And at the same time, our GFP, which is terrible. What we've done there, we've lost revenue like there's no tomorrow. We've refocused our sales team, our local sales team to be part of the solution instead of being part of the problem.

Speaker 1

So that's also another area of major change in the approach of our sales team under this new leadership is GFE, we have to stop degrading the revenue on that and we have to start recapturing growth. Because if you go back in time, let's say in 'twenty two, GFP's revenue was $100,000,000 in the quarter. And now we're down, David, we're down to what? 30? About 33.

Speaker 1

30 three.

Speaker 3

But I will note that this is the first quarter in a long time where GFP is flat sequentially.

Speaker 1

Yeah. But we need to grow. For sure.

Speaker 8

But

Speaker 3

we're starting to see, a little bit of the benefit of this refocus in Q1.

Speaker 1

Yep. Because that's a fantastic product that we have. Nobody has that, except now UPS announced that they will have the kind of similar product. But But this is a great product for our customer. It's just like, we have to do a better job in selling it.

Speaker 1

And I think that the refocusing under this sales leadership shakeup okay, is gonna help us.

Speaker 7

Great. Thanks very much.

Operator

And your next question comes from the line of Konark Gupta with Scotiabank. Please go ahead.

Speaker 4

Thanks, operator. Good morning, Alain and David. I hope you are doing well.

Speaker 1

Good morning.

Speaker 6

Good

Speaker 4

morning. So Alain, you talked about and thanks for sharing the guidance for q two. Actually, it helps, you know, obviously. But in terms of the T Force, you you mentioned the leadership changes in MetFab, but Keith, Cal, Chris, you know, I I understand, you know, leadership changes are important, but what what I'm trying to figure out is how how quickly this employee morale is changing with just, you know, some changes at the top. What was it just about the top?

Speaker 4

You know, like or or is there something else structurally in the business, be it unions or some other employees down the value chain where there's an issue in terms of culture or morale? Is there a low hanging fruit that you can resolve with more changes down the road in this business?

Speaker 1

Know what, Fennart? I mean, has got to start with the top, right? So the approach that now we have under Cal and Chris is that we want to build the company, right? We want to grow this T Force rate. And you can't just squeeze costs and keep losing top line, because this is not the way that you're gonna grow and have shoulders that's going to be happy with what's going on.

Speaker 1

The start of this new team is that, guys, let's roll up our sleeve and let's focus on growing this company again instead of just back pedaling in reducing volume every month, every quarters, and trying to get more money from an 85% OR when already an 85% OR is great within T Force rate. So you're right, Bernard, that at some terminal levels, well, for sure down the road, we have to make some changes. Already, we already started to make some changes. I know that in certain terminals, we've made some changes. Now, as I said, the last two or three quarters on the call, we have financial information by terminal.

Speaker 1

So we know which terminal costs are great and we know which terminal costs are an issue. So now the guys are really focused. Now, like I said, Keith's job is not running the full T Force rate. He's focused on operation with his regional VPs and get this cost better everywhere. At the same time on the commercial side, our friend Chris is motivating the sales team, focus on, guys, we have to grow the small, medium sized account because we need to have a bigger share of our portfolio of business with the small account versus the 3PL or versus the corporate account.

Speaker 1

We also need to refocus on GFP because we've been working four years on that GFP. And like I said, we've been going down every quarter. And David just added that for the first time, we stopped going down. Okay, now, okay guys, this is the floor and now we have to start creeping up again. We have a product that is second to none that nobody has.

Speaker 1

So there's no reason why we've lost revenue. The focus was not there. So the morale is great. The guys, they see that it's not just a cost game, it's a global growth in terms of growing the top line at the same time doing a better job on cost.

Speaker 4

That makes a lot of sense, Sylvain. Thanks so much. And if I can just follow-up with respect to the competitive landscape in The U. LTL market, are you noticing any big changes there? Like, we can clearly see some of the data points we track, like, you know, some of the competitors like SIA, they're ramping up volumes where volumes are down for the market overall.

Speaker 4

Are you seeing any changes in terms of, you know, like with your culture and morale improving, there's an opportunity to kind of regain some of the market share that you may have lost or you did not lose any market share at all? Like, you know, was it all market that was soft and you held your market share?

Speaker 1

No, no, we've lost market share. So this is why another leg on that chair is the quality of our service. So we've talked a lot about missed pickup. So the goal is, like in Canada, in Canada missed pickup does not exist for us. In The US, our missed pickup is 1.7% today of our total shipment.

Speaker 1

It's not good. Now, the guy will tell you that two years ago, nobody looked at that. A year ago, woke up and they started looking at it, it was like 4%. Now we're down to 1.7%. The goal of the team is to bring that down closer to zero like we do in Canada.

Speaker 1

That's number one. Number two is the quality of our service. So you could always say, I'm 98% on time with a list of 45 different excuses. This is the past. As we look at the reality now and our service is improving in real term, not with all these excuses because we said forget about the excuses because we can't grow the business if we're not providing the service, which we said that we would provide.

Speaker 1

So at the same time, we're moving more freight away from rail onto the road because we control the road, whereas we never control the rail. So the rail, you just live based on what these guys will do. So all this is also at the same time providing comfort to our sales team that, Hey guys, we're serious, that we're going to meet and be there, walk the talk, what we're saying to the customer, we will deliver. So we are improving in real terms, not just in the fantasy land. We are improving the reality of our service the next day and also on, let's say, the multiple day transit time.

Speaker 1

We're not where we should be, but we are improving and that's going to help us with customer, with protecting our customer base, with reducing the churn of our business. Because if I compare the churn we have in The U. S. Versus the churn we have in Canada, this is like day and night. Our Canadian, if you look at our results in Canada, we're second to none.

Speaker 1

Nobody is approaching us at all in Canada, right? But in The U. S, our service is not up to par and that's also a reason why we have too much churn. By fixing the service and improving the service, which is really a big focus of Keith and his operating team with Cal, it's going to help us reduce the churn and start growing the shipment count, and this is the goal.

Speaker 4

I get it, for sure. Thanks so much for the time, and all the best. Thank you.

Speaker 1

Thank you, Kanar.

Operator

And your next question comes from the line of Daniel Imbro with Stephens. Please go ahead.

Speaker 8

Hey, guys. This is Reed C. On for Daniel. I'm just gonna follow-up real quick on that last question. On service, you've talked a lot about Keith focusing on operations and improving service in the near term.

Speaker 8

Can you provide maybe some examples of what Keith and the team are working on to improve that in the near term?

Speaker 1

Well, yes. The line all, it's an issue. If you load the trailers and you have a line all provider, would it be a rail or a third party that's not delivering the freight on time, well, in that trailer is going to be late. So the biggest issue that we have in The US in terms of service is providing the line haul service. So this is why we're moving away as much as we can, as fast as we can away from the rail because we have no control on rail.

Speaker 1

I mean, you give them the freight and you hope that it's going to be there on time. When it's road, when it's us, I mean, if we make a mistake, this is something that we can manage and we can correct. So this is the big thing that the guys are working on, number one. Number two is, like I said many, many times, missed pickup is a disaster in a sense that the customer is waiting for you to pick up the freight and you don't show up. That doesn't help your reputation, that doesn't help the churn into your business.

Speaker 1

So this is why a major emphasis has been put on missed pickup, okay, and also improving our line haul. The next day service, when the line haul is only 400 miles, which is next day service, I mean, we're doing quite well. It's when you have to move, okay, with two or three days connection, there we need to improve. And one way that we're doing that is we're moving away from rail as much and as fast as we can, number one. And number two is also the third party that we're using, they have to deliver based on the commitment, like we have commitment with customers.

Speaker 8

Got it. Thank you. And on the rate side, obviously it's been a little bit challenged for a few quarters here. I assume some of that is from the shift to enterprise in the back half of last year. As you've refocused the company, when do you expect to have visibility to yields flipping positive year over year?

Speaker 1

Listen, what we're seeing so far in April is there's an improvement in trend, but it's still early in the game, but for sure the focus is there. We can't do business with an account that runs at 115 OR because we lost so much medium sized account that runs an 85 OR. So this is nonsense that we went through in Q3 and in Q4, like I said on my call of Q4, and this has to change, and this is why we made some change in T Force freight leadership. There's no way, and we have to reduce the churn, and this goes back to the operation. We have to meet commitment that we have with customer.

Speaker 1

So we will start to see improvement, and this is why, like I said earlier, 99% OR in Q1 is really, really bad, but we believe that sequentially we will improve 200 basis points just because of the cycle, but we're also going to reduce at least 100 basis points based on quality of revenue, reduced churn, better service, etcetera, etcetera. So this is why we feel that we can say to the market on Q2, we believe that this company would deliver between 1.25 to $1.4 of EPS. This is based on better results at T Force rate and also our U. S. Truckload operations, specialty truckload operations will do better in Q2.

Speaker 1

We are unloading excess assets over there that are penalizing us on depreciation and interest costs. So this also will help us participate in that 1.5 to $1.4 down the road.

Speaker 8

Got it. Thank you, Alain.

Speaker 6

Pleasure.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Benoit Poirier with Desjardins. Please go ahead.

Speaker 9

Yes. Good morning, Alain, and thanks for the great answers about the USTL. Now if we move on Daseke, it looks like that the OR was closer to 99% in Q1. You mentioned a lot of details around the weaker economy, especially on the industrial side. But I would be curious whether there's also some question mark or issues around the culture and the management team and what we should expect from Daseke in the coming quarters.

Speaker 1

Yeah, well Benoit, Daseke's OR in Q1 is closer to 96 than a 99, right? So that's number one. So it's the level of activity Benoit in Q1 that killed us with our specialty truckload in The U. S. Our miles were down depending on the week up to 15%.

Speaker 1

So just a disaster. In terms of the fact also that we had excess trucks and excess trailers, but that will correct over 25, the excess assets will correct it over 25. Now in terms of the culture of the truckload in The U. S, the specialty truckload in The U. S, it's not an issue like we had that T Force rate a few years ago.

Speaker 1

The trend, what you'll see us do more in The US is we will drive less miles and have more revenue. That's the goal. And so our asset light operation, if you look at the way we report logistics revenue, so you'll see in our US specialty truckload operation, we will grow our asset light operation, and probably, let's say the asset side of our business will stay about the same size, less assets, but better revenue, better miles per truck, better revenue per truck. And if I remember correctly, David, our revenue per truck in Q1 is better in our U. S.

Speaker 1

Specialty truckload. We have more miles per truck, a little bit less of revenue per mile in Q1, but that is reversed in Q2 where we have better rate per mile in Q2 in our specialty truckload so far. And we have a little bit more miles per truck again in Q2 so far. So the trend is going to improve over time and the DESKY acquisition, I'm telling you, we have a fantastic operating team there. It's just like we have, like I said to Steve at TFI, Steve Brookshaw, we have very good truckers there.

Speaker 1

It's just like we have to transform these guys as very good business guys. It's all about making money. It's all about the bottom line. Yes, we are in business to service customers, but we service customers if we make money. If we don't make money, what's the sense of servicing customers?

Speaker 1

For example, one of our businesses, Wiley, those guys are big into a sector of the industry where we look at the number of trucks we have there. We have 150 trucks, 600 trailers, 600 trailers. Why do we have 600 trailers? Well, that's key. So we have way too many trailers.

Speaker 1

And even 150 trucks for that segment of our business, we have 50 too many trucks. Because we are hauling a product that is difficult to haul, where you could be subject to claim, okay? And she says, oh, guys, we hold that for two points to the bottom line. Might as well put our capital into, let's say, a bank. Okay, we're going to get 4% dividend.

Speaker 1

Why would you invest capital for that? So for sure in that division, the 600 trailer will go down to 300 during the course of 2025, and maybe down to 200. And the number of trucks will go down to from 150 to 100, where it makes sense. So that's a little bit of a change where Steve is working hard with the team there to turn a trucker's business into a business, a trucking company into a business about making money. So we said a 96 OR in DESKY in Q1, it's not acceptable.

Speaker 1

Everybody knows that. Four points to the bottom line, no. So the guys know, hey, specialty truckload, I mean, at our van world in Canada running a 90 OR, if you exclude the gain on asset. A 90 OR in Canada, where we are competing with the Driver Inc. Shift, and those guys are able to get to a 90 OR, and our specialty is 94, not acceptable.

Speaker 1

Globally. Daseke is 96 something, right? So we know what to do, we'll keep working at it. And for sure, we see until that tariff uncertainty and fog, you call it, for sure we'll be under pressure in terms of miles, in terms of volume. But I think that in six months, three months, six months, we'll have a better visibility and then people will start buying again in the industrial sector that is core to us.

Speaker 3

Yeah. Exactly. I think that's so important to to remember the context of this quarter. I mean, the specialized end markets are our our customers in the specialized end markets, the ones specifically affected by the trade situation, the trade uncertainty, so of course, they're easing off on production and easing off on on orders and as as they wait to see how things are gonna play out. So that's the very, very near term.

Speaker 3

But the long term is we believe in North American industrialization. We believe in North American production. And this is the way that the economy is moving. That's why we want this exposure.

Speaker 1

Yep. Absolutely.

Speaker 9

That's great color. And just in terms of follow-up quickly, guys, we've seen a lot of headlines about cargo volume that is expected to be down significantly in the second half, given the reduced imports from China. So comments from the ports and RF could be down somewhere 10% to 20%. So I understand that it's pretty foggy out there, but any thoughts about how this could impact TFI and whether this could make the typical second half pickup maybe a little bit less pronounced that it is been historically?

Speaker 1

Yes, well, that's a very good question. And we know that the port activity, okay, will be less because there's less ship coming from Asia to The U. S. In Q2, we know that. But if you go back to what we're saying, Benoit, about our specialty truckload, what we're moving has got nothing to do with Asia, right?

Speaker 1

It's industrial activity in The U. S. That may be affected a little bit, okay? It's more like the retail stuff that probably will be affected. Until that they fix this tariff situation with Asia, there could be some pressure in Q2 and in Q3.

Speaker 1

But in our specialty truckload, when we talk to our customer, that's not the reason why they're slow. The reason they're slow is that nobody knows, if you're a farmer in The US today and you're a crop, you don't know who's going to buy your crop because the Chinese are saying, you know what, we're going to buy from Brazil, we're not buying from The US anymore. Then you're not going to buy a tractor, you're not going to buy a combine, you're not going to do anything until you have better visibility. So this is what's affecting our volume today. When we talk to yellow hiring, all this construction material where you have interest rates that are quite high still in The US, I know Mr.

Speaker 1

Trump wants them lowered, but so far, they're still high. So it affects construction. Construction is us. We're moving building material. We're moving all this related to industrial activity.

Speaker 1

It does not affect whatever China shifts to The U. S. That much for us. Maybe a little bit on our LTL side, but not that I know of Benoit. But for sure, I mean, Q2 could be for our world, okay, more difficult in The US based on the number of ships that are not coming to The US because of what's going on.

Speaker 3

Yeah. I think the best way to try and quantify that is to look at page four of the MD and A where we actually list out our end markets by percentage of revenue. You can see the retail is 19%, the remainder are various, mostly industrial end markets. So that can help people get a sense.

Speaker 1

And also, if I may add, if you look at that, the automotive is mostly US. So in the automotive, we have GHT moving trucks. We have contracts with, I would say that 90% of our automotive revenue is US based, so it's not Canadian based and etcetera, etcetera. It's mostly US based. Stuff that we do at TA Dedicated for some customers that we have there.

Speaker 1

Everything that we move from GHT is mostly for The US market out of Canada. Well, Canada is a small plant and a little bit of Mexico as well, but it's mostly for The US domestic market.

Speaker 9

Okay, that's very good color. Thanks for the time.

Speaker 1

Thank you, Benoit.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Scott Group with Wolfe Research. Please go ahead.

Speaker 6

Hey. Thanks. Good morning. Just a quick, follow-up on specialty truckload. Relative to that 94 OR in Q1, how do you think about the progression there into Q2 in the guide and maybe back half of the year?

Speaker 3

Go ahead, David. Embedded in the guide is a '91, '90 '2 for specialized in Q2.

Speaker 6

Okay. And do you think is there more self help there with respect to Daseke? Or is improvement beyond that going to be more dependent on cycle and trucking?

Speaker 5

Yes.

Speaker 1

Scott, for sure. There's some improvement on the Daseke side, on the financial side. I mean, the admin and the IT system, the safety, which is a big issue for us because of all the claims of accidents, etcetera, etcetera. So there's a huge focus on that in the part of the guys over there. The culture that an accident is the problem of the insurance company, well it's not, no, it's our problem, so safety first.

Speaker 1

So these are all changes that should help us. Also, have a business unit that did not perform really, really well in Q1 in The U. S. Where it's we're in our last leg, okay, with that business. If we can't fix it, we're just going to have to do something else with it.

Speaker 1

And it's not part of Daseke, right? So the only business unit that we made some changes that was part of Daseke was Bulldog, which was very small that we shut it down. So overall, we know what to do there. The other thing, as I said, Scott, many times, we have way too much asset in that business, to Daseke's previous management team, where they were a big fan of buying trucks. So today we have way too many trucks for the volume, we have way too many trailers.

Speaker 1

So this excess asset will come out of our books, will reduce our depreciation. And at the same time, we're going ahead with smart CapEx on our truckload, again, going back to the philosophy that the balance between asset light and asset in our specialty truckload in The U. S. Has to change. And this is one also of our goal is to improve or increase, I would say, the asset light revenue and keep the asset side revenue about stable, but the growth has to go to our asset light operation.

Speaker 6

And then maybe just last quick one. I saw a few weeks ago UPS announced an expanded version of their own GFP business, on some bigger size shipments. Is there any impact to you from UPS making a bigger push into GFP?

Speaker 1

No, not at all, Scott. Not at all. I mean, They've always been in that position. They've always been there, and it's never been big for them. And probably they're trying to grow it.

Speaker 1

But at the same time, us, we didn't do our job. When you look at that, now we're going to be doing our job on GFP and we're to grow that business again. Because for sure, if you're UPS and you look at what T Force REIT has done over the course of the last four years, you say, are these guys doing, right? But we had some issues with some customers that our partner UPS doesn't want to deal with, some resellers. That's one of the reasons why our revenue dropped so much.

Speaker 1

But there's also a fact that we didn't do our job. So now the morale is through the roof over there. The guys are really up and running. And like David was saying, for the first time, we were flat quarter over quarter on GFP. But for sure, our focus is to grow this business again.

Speaker 1

And there's no reason why we shouldn't be able to grow that because we have a product that is second to none. For small shipment that could be conveyable with UPS quality of service, so there's no question about the quality of service at UPS. Okay? So I mean, guys, let's sell it. Let's move.

Speaker 6

Okay. Thank you, guys. Appreciate it. Thanks, Sean.

Operator

And your next question comes from the line of Ken Hoexter with Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Speaker 5

Hey. Hi, Elaine and David. Thanks for taking my question. This is Adam Roskowski on for Ken Hoexter. I guess going back to U.

Speaker 5

S. LTL, how much time do you think before you start seeing material improvement in the claims ratio? Is that 0.9 this quarter, flat and a little worse year over year? Anything that's happening right now that's starting to move many on And I guess I asked because it sounds like the small business share you were winning is being done more or less at price. So just any kind of thoughts on the service side?

Speaker 1

No, I wouldn't say that. But on the claims side, for sure, we're at 0.9% of revenue, which is terrible, right? And there's a lag. There's a lag. So when I talk to the team there, they say, you know what, I think we'll do a better job in Q2.

Speaker 1

We're still paying for mistakes that or issues that were not addressed in 2024, right? So there's a lag. So you should see us improving 0.9 is completely unacceptable. If you look at our Canadian operation, if I remember correctly, we're about 0.2, okay, which is best in class. I mean, you look at our U.

Speaker 1

S. Peers, in class are about 0.2. And this is the goal. This is where we have to be. But we used to be in a way better position at T Force rate.

Speaker 1

If you go back maybe a year, a year and a half ago, we went as low as 0.4, zero point five. Now we're back to an unacceptable level of 0.9. You should see us improve during the course of 2025. In terms of the new business that we're bringing in, okay, the small, medium size, it's not based on price, Our price is competitive, our price reflects the market. And we're not trying to gain shipments on the back of stupid pricing and losing money about it.

Speaker 1

The problem that we had in Q3 and then Q4 is we were losing the small and medium sized quality freight, and we replaced that with guys, major account that are slow paying you, and you lose money with those guys. So this is a major change of the sales team there under the management of Chris and Cal and on the commercial side, and you should see some benefit. Like I said earlier, cyclicality, we should improve 200 basis points from the disastrous '99, and then we believe that our improvement will also reduce another 100 basis points to closer to a 96 OR in Q2, and walking closer slowly to at least the 90 OR at one point and then break that famous glass ceiling for us that's been the 90 OR.

Speaker 5

Thanks for the color. I guess then just on maybe the pace of contractual pricing renewals. I mean, you previously noted pricing at the lower service end of The US LTL space has been competitive. So any update on just the kind of quarterly contractual pricing renewals run rate, particularly as you have started to make these shifts over these past couple of months?

Speaker 1

I think that everything is normal on

Speaker 3

that side. Hey, David, what we're seeing? Yeah, we're seeing look, the renewals are taking place in the mid single digits. Right? The the problem is our revenue per shipment is down because the mix has has deteriorated in the way that that we've described with the shift from SMB to to to to to larger customers.

Speaker 3

But the renewals are are are are in the mid singles.

Speaker 5

Got it. Thanks for the time.

Speaker 1

Pleasure.

Operator

And your next question comes from the line of Brian Ossenbach with JPMorgan. Please go ahead.

Speaker 10

Hey. Good morning, guys. Thanks for taking question.

Speaker 1

Good morning, Brian.

Speaker 10

Just to ask SMB maybe a different way. I guess what we're the market's concerned with additional competition in the area that everybody seems to be wanting to grow when volume is down pretty significantly just across the board. So maybe you can help me give a little bit of answer there and you can help elaborate with a little bit more of maybe milestones for service improvements or is this going to be better density and then for better service with some of the information you got with the terminals. Maybe you can help provide some, I don't know, cutovers from the systems or perspectives from the actual operations that would help kind of catalyze this service gain or this share gain rather as opposed to just looking from the outside and thinking, this just looks like more competition in a pretty tough market. So anything there would be helpful.

Speaker 1

Well, when you look back at this company, T Force Freight, I mean, we had issues with mix everywhere. So if you look at our line all, our mix was way too much rail miles versus truck miles. So we've been addressing that to improve the service. The other thing also that was not good in the mix was the small and medium sized account versus the 3PL versus the corporate account. Our mix is not normal, right?

Speaker 1

Because we went the easy way with the 3PL and the corporate account, etcetera, etcetera. So the mix that we have today, right, not normal. So let's say that the normal mix of small, medium sized account is 45% of your business, we're not there at all. That's why we're having a tough time. Our peers probably have better mix than us, I would say.

Speaker 1

And this is why for us, it's got to be a focus of rebalancing the mix on the line all, like I've talked earlier. And at the same time also, the trend that we were going in 2024 was really, really bad because we were just making the balance even worse than what it was prior. So the guys are working and it's showing results as we are seeing it now. The small and medium sized account, part of our business is increasing instead of the way it used to be, let's say, two or three quarters ago being reduced. So it's a question of balancing.

Speaker 1

Now versus our peers, what we're seeing is that sometimes what is good for us, maybe it's not that good for one of my peers. So it's just to focus on the right stuff. And for sure, like I said many, many times, down the road, we have to improve the density. So again, everybody wants to improve density, but my density, because this is where I'm situated, maybe it's not the same as one of my peers, which is 40 miles away from me. So it's just having the right focus, and we've been working at it for a long time, but on the sales side, we went the opposite way of improving, we went the wrong way.

Speaker 1

Now we're correcting that on the sales side. And on the upside, missed pickup, we're doing a better job today than a year ago, but we're still not doing the job that we're supposed to do. And on the just on time, yes, on the short haul, we're there, but on the long haul, which is a lot of our freight is long haul, we're not there. So we have to keep improving that with our hub, with our line of provider, and as much as we can reduce the rail miles as fast as we can so that we are in control of what's going on. Because when you give that to rail, you have no control.

Speaker 1

So that will also help us reduce the churn. So when you reduce the churn, you stop losing customer losing freight from customer. So that puts less pressure on your sales team that's always running like a dog that's running to a stale, running in circles, trying to chase a stale. So all that is part of that global strategic plan that we established with Cal, Chris and Keith over there. And like David was saying earlier, we're going to see some improvement there.

Speaker 10

Okay, thanks, Elaine. I appreciate that. And then just a quick question on cross border activity. I don't think it's necessarily a huge part of your business, but just wanted to see given all the volatility in the headlines and on and off again tariffs, if you've seen a big surge there and then drop. And I guess to the extent that you've got any visibility, what's embedded in the guidance there for 2Q?

Speaker 10

Thank you.

Speaker 1

Yes, very good question, Brian. On the truckload side, we follow every day the number of load that goes to the board. So what's happening now is that there's no issues with volume. The problem we have is that there's nothing coming back to Canada right now. So it's an issue.

Speaker 1

The backhaul is killing us right now on the truckload side. On the LTL side, yes, we are a big player on the transborder freight between US and Canada. We see some softness there, some softness from our partner with TST. We see some softness from our own operation with T Force Freight U. S.

Speaker 1

And Canada. Nothing very important. I would say probably we're down about 10%, fifteen % so far. Again, this is based on a lot of insecurity, a lot of it is based on, I don't know where I'm going, so I'm just waiting to see what's going to happen next. So a little bit on the LTL side, not so much.

Speaker 1

And on the truckload side, everything that comes from Canada to The US, the float is normal. Aluminum, I think we're doing more aluminum now than we used to do six months ago. Steel is down, no question about that. Steel is down out of Ontario, but aluminum out of Quebec, we're still running like crazy, even with the 25% tariff, and we know why. Canada manufactures 4,000,000 tons a year, US manufactures not even a million tons a year, and the market is, right now from Canada, is 75% of The US, I think, and nothing has changed.

Speaker 1

And if you remember what the president of Alcoa was saying, aluminum has to come from Canada, unless there's another market that could be, but Canada is very close to The US. It's like the car, it's like the automotive industry, it's like the truck, it's all integrated. To make a long story short of your question, it's not that significant so far. But we could do better, and this is going back to what David was saying about this sector of our business that relates to industrial, a lot of our customers are sidelined waiting to see what's gonna happen.

Speaker 3

Yeah. And Brian, to address your question about how it's taken into consideration in the guide, the guide, as Mr. Bedard said in his opening remarks, is based on the first three weeks of April and what we've seen in actual results. And what we've done is we've extrapolated that taking into consideration the trend that typically occur between April, May, and June. And so we've extrapolated that in an appropriate way, taking that into consideration.

Speaker 3

And so what we're saying is if things continue in Q two the way that they started, this is what we'll do. And if there's some major change in the macro related to trade, that'll have an implication up or down.

Speaker 10

Okay. Thanks very much, guys.

Speaker 1

Pleasure, Brian.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Bruce Chan with Stifel. Please go ahead.

Speaker 5

Hi, Alain and David. This is Matt Myelas calling for Bruce this morning. Thanks for taking a quick one from us here. Just on the P and C side of the house, U. S.

Speaker 5

Market is getting a bit more competitive on the B2C side. I know B2C is a smaller portion of the business. Would you be able to give a sense of what percentage that is now and maybe comment on if you're seeing some increased price competition in that market or is it stable? Thank you.

Speaker 1

Very good question. On package, our B2C is growing, okay, because our B2B is not growing. For sure, B2C is one stop, one shipment normally. So it affects our density, if you want to call it like that. So it's a little bit of a headwind for us.

Speaker 1

But if you don't beat them, you have to join them. So this is where we have no other option than to grow our share of B2C versus our B2B in our P and C in Canada. And also the pricing is very aggressive because there's lots of guys that have done major investment in Canada on B2C, and a lot of this B2C business is managed by the large player, which is Amazon in Canada as well. Now, the thing is, also talking about Amazon, they decided to shut down their Quebec operation. They went with all kinds of small guys, maybe they're talking to a big player to help them.

Speaker 1

We could see that down the road. We'll have to see that. Keep in mind though that because of our density in our P and C and in our LTL in Canada, fuel is a tailwind for us. And the Canadian government with Mr. Carney now in charge, although there's an election at the end of the month, but still Mr.

Speaker 1

Carney decided to get rid of the carbon tax, which is lowering the fuel costs in Canada, except Quebec. Those guys, would say late to the party. But that has also an influence on fuel costs for us, so it reduces our fuel cost, but it also reduced our fuel surcharge. And because of our density, this now is a little bit of a headwind for us, but this is something that we're going have to manage because carbon tax in today's environment in North America, I think this is dead. So it's going nowhere.

Speaker 1

So our guys are working around this, but there again, this is part of all this change in the macro environment that TFI is adjusting to.

Speaker 5

Excellent. Great color. Thank you.

Speaker 6

Welcome.

Operator

And your next question comes from the line of Cameron Doerksen with National Bank Financial. Please go ahead.

Speaker 11

Yes, thanks. Good morning. Really just one question from me. Just want to talk a little bit about free cash flow. I mean, you've sort of indicated that you're going to be pretty light on CapEx for 2025.

Speaker 11

I'm just wondering, obviously, there's a cloudy outlook here with the business. But I'm just wondering if we look at 2024 free cash flow kind of in that 700 to $800,000,000 range. Is that could that be a reasonable expectation for 2025 given the fact that you're going to have lower CapEx?

Speaker 1

You know what, Cameron, I think that maybe, David, you could comment on that. But I think that what we will generate in 'twenty five, what we know so far, based on what we know, we should be in the same kind of zip code. That's the plan so far. Now, for sure, Q1 free cash flow was through the roof because we have very little CapEx. But going into Q2, Q3 and Q4, we'll have more CapEx, absolutely, but we'll also generate more cash.

Speaker 1

So this is why, what can we add to that, David?

Speaker 3

Well, listen, I would say that we were really strong in free cash flow because of the CapEx in Q1, also because of working capital. There was a release of cash was over $30,000,000 in the from working capital. So those are the three variables that drive your free cash in the year, Cameron. The the most important one is earnings. That's the most important one.

Speaker 3

Okay? So that underpins it all. And and we'll we've given the guidance based on the visibility that we have at this time for that. And then the other two are CapEx and working capital.

Speaker 11

Okay. And on working capital, I mean, how does that trend, I guess, through

Speaker 10

the remainder of the year?

Speaker 3

Well, so working capital is an interesting one. Working capital provides a release of cash when conditions deteriorate. So as revenue declines, and in particular as fuel price declines, because fuel is the most working capital intensive thing that we have. Because remember, our DSO is thirty nine days across the company, but we pay the fuel providers in seven days. K?

Speaker 3

So when you have when you have decreasing revenues from lower activity and decreasing fuel, that releases a lot of cash from the working capital, and that's part of what we experienced in in this quarter. And then you have the reverse, of course, which we saw, for example, during the pandemic as things ramped up, activity ramped up, fuel prices ramped up, you had a drain. So the way that I would think about working capital is as really an offset to some extent to the earnings. Meaning, earnings are climbing higher, typically that's a drain on working capital. And so you'll have increased cash flows from the operations being offset somewhat by working capital needs.

Speaker 3

And then when conditions deteriorate, it's the reverse. You'll have earnings coming down, partially offset by a release of working capital.

Speaker 1

No worry about that because the carbon tax in Canada, okay, being eliminated, fuel costs in Canada has dropped. And that's going to help us, again, because our customer pays us in, on average, forty days, thirty nine days, and we pay fuel every week, right? Correct.

Speaker 11

Right. Okay. No. That make make make total sense. Appreciate the color.

Speaker 11

Thanks very much.

Speaker 1

Pleasure, Cameron.

Operator

And your next question comes from the line of Elliot Alford with TD Cowen. Please go ahead.

Speaker 12

Hey, great. Thanks. Yes, this is Elliot on for Jason Seidl. Maybe just one on the logistics side. Can you discuss maybe the moving pieces within that segment in the first quarter?

Speaker 12

Was that primarily the truck moving business driving the weakness? And should we expect that to persist given the tariffs? Or are there any businesses within that segment helping offset some of the broader weakness?

Speaker 1

Well, if you look at the OEMs, the OEMs volumes, PACCAR and Daimler are two major customers. They produce 20% to 30% less trucks today than they used to a year ago. So for sure, this is affecting our business at GHT big time. So if you look at our revenue in our logistics, the drop in revenue comes mostly from that. On our logistics side in Canada, we're doing really, really well.

Speaker 1

On our logistics side in The U. S, a little bit of a weakness in Q1, but the guys are addressing that. And we believe that if you look at the year '25, excluding the truck moving business at GHT, we should do really, really well. So the Canadian side, The US side will improve, no issues. The truck moving, according to the discussion we're having with the OEM, in Q4, we should do better Q4 twenty twenty five than we did in Q4 'twenty four.

Speaker 1

And Q4 'twenty four was really the first quarter that we started to see a drop in that business. And it continued in Q1, it will continue in Q2 and Q3. And according to our guys, Q4, whoops, for the first time, we'll do a better revenue in Q4 year over year, '25 versus '24. Now '26, if you listen to the OEM, it's going to be a boom year, to a certain degree, '27, because of all the changes, unless Mr. Trump administration makes some changes in the requirement of environmental requirement on the truck manufacturers.

Speaker 1

Mean, '26 is going to be a boom year and '27, maybe more quiet. We'll see.

Speaker 6

Appreciate it. Thank you.

Speaker 1

Pleasure.

Operator

Sorry. Your next question comes from the line of Bascome Majors with Susquehanna. Please go ahead.

Speaker 13

David and mister Badar, good to hear you guys both on together here today. About a year ago, mister Badar, we talked about, you know, kinda what you wanted to see through, and and and you talked about digesting Daseke and and, you know, potentially another big acquisition and and and, you know, the spin off plans that were maybe more prominent or near term when we discussed that a year ago. Can you give us an update on on, you know, what you'd like to accomplish in your role here, before you feel like you've done everything you wanted to do, just given everything that's changed in the last, you know, nine, twelve months here? So. Yeah,

Speaker 1

Hey, listen, I mean, like I said, '25, we can't do anything of size on M and A, right? We had to walk away from a transaction that was a great transaction for both parties, the seller and us, and we had to walk away because of all of this environment, okay? But that doesn't change the plan. The plan is for sure, if it's not going be '25, it's got to be '26. We need to do another acquisition of size in The US.

Speaker 1

And that's number one. And the spin off, in our mind, still makes a lot of business sense. But there again, there's always been a question of size. So when you have a market cap that is now down to 6,000,000,000 or $7,000,000,000 U. S, any spin off doesn't make any sense, also in the global environment.

Speaker 1

So we have to wait. So it's not going happen in 2025, probably in 2026, we'll have to see depending on where we're going. But it makes a lot of sense to have our truckload division standalone, because the return on invested capital is not the same. The liquidity is not the same. So it makes a lot of sense, and I think everybody agrees that this is the way to go.

Speaker 1

It's just the timing. We thought that a year ago, the timing would be within two years and within two years it would be like '26. I don't think it's going to happen in '26. I think it's more like maybe a '27 issue. The market has been tough for truckload guys.

Speaker 1

If you look at our peers, they've been suffering badly '23, '20 '4 and even '25. I think it's going to be a tough year. Maybe things will start to improve in '26 and then it makes lots of sense for us if we have the size. Because don't forget, our truckload operation running today at 90 some OR, 93, 90 four globally with the van world, We don't want to do a spin off with a 93 OR company. We got to bring that OR down closer to an 85, which is best in class.

Speaker 1

And this is the goal for 2526. And after we get to that goal, then maybe it makes sense. But again, if our market cap is still $6,000,000,000 at the time, it's going to be tough to do. So there's still a lot of things to do before we do this kind of spin up, but we're getting ready for it. We're taking action every day that we can to be in a position when it's time to say go, we are in a position to go.

Speaker 1

There's some assets that need to be transferred, there's some technology that needs to be addressed, etcetera, etcetera, which we are working on in order to be ready when the right time comes. And in terms of M and A of a sizable deal, it's going to have to wait twenty six because we have to show to the market that we've been talking about for four years now. We bought T4Street four years ago, and we used to do okay. In 'twenty four, we just did worse. So we got to turn this thing around before doing anything of size in The U.

Speaker 1

S. Until we don't turn T Force rate back closer to a 90 OR or under 90 OR, which I think is feasible. Don't forget that we run an 80 OR in Canada today in our Canadian LTL, which is unionized. So there's no reason, union, no union, no, no, no. It's just us.

Speaker 1

We have to do a better job.

Speaker 13

Thank you for that.

Operator

And presenters, I am not showing any further questions at this time. I would like to turn it back to Mr. Elaine Billard for closing remarks.

Speaker 1

All right. Thank you, operator, and thank you everyone for joining us today and for your ongoing interest in TFI International. We look forward to keeping you updated as we move through 2025. And as always, please reach out if you have any additional questions. Stay safe, enjoy the day and thanks again.

Operator

Thank you presenters. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you all for joining. You may now disconnect.

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Earnings Conference Call
TFI International Q1 2025
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