Vale Q1 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
April 25, 2025

There are 15 speakers on the call.

Operator

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to Vale's First Quarter twenty twenty five Earnings Call. This conference is being recorded and the replay will be available on our website at vale.com. The presentation is also available for download in English and Portuguese from our website. To listen to the call in Portuguese, please press the globe icon on the lower right side of your Zoom screen and then choose to enter the Portuguese room.

Operator

Then select mute original audio so that you won't hear the English version in the background. We would like to inform that all participants are currently in a listen only mode for the presentations. Further instructions will be provided before we begin the question and answer section of our call. We would like to advise that forward looking statements may be provided in this presentation, including Vari's expectations about future events or results encompassing those matters listed in the respective presentation. We caution you that forward looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties.

Operator

To obtain information on factors that may lead to results different from those forecast by Vale, please consult the reports Vale files with the U. S. Securities and Exchange Commission, the Brazilian Commisson de Valoris Mobilarios and, in particular, the factors discussed under forward looking statements and risk factors in Vale's annual report on Form 20 F. With us today are Mr. Gustavo Pimenta, CEO Mr.

Operator

Marcelo Baci, Executive Vice President of Finance and Investor Relations Mr. Roger Nogueira, Executive Vice President, Commercial and Development Mr. Carlos Medeiros, Executive Vice President of Operations and Mr. Sean Asmar, CEO of Vale Base Metals. Now I will turn the conference over to Mr.

Operator

Gustavo Pimenta. Sir, you may now begin.

Speaker 1

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Vale's first quarter twenty twenty five conference call. First, I would like to take a moment to remind you of our strategic direction as defined by Vale two thousand thirty vision. We are building a leading mining platform with a flexible portfolio of assets, exposed to the right long term fundamentals and based on a unique mineral endowment, all of that supported by a highly innovative and purpose driven organization. We are confident the actions we are taking today will create substantial value to all of our stakeholders and will lead to a more resilient enterprise. The current trade war only reinforces the importance of building a competitive business that can thrive under different market conditions, and that is exactly what we are doing at Vale.

Speaker 1

Despite the short term volatility and uncertainty, we remain highly optimistic about the future and our role in driving sustainable mining to support the global economic development. Now let's take a look into our Q1 performance in the next slide. Driven by our integrated supply chain and as anticipated, iron ore sales increased by 4% year on year, reaching 66,000,000 tons, while our production was 4% lower, mostly within our mine plan for the quarter, but also impacted by the higher rainfall in the northern system. Our operational excellence initiatives continue to bear fruit. S11D, for example, achieved its higher production for first quarter, thanks to the several asset reliability programs we have implemented.

Speaker 1

In Q1, we continued to prioritize the supply of medium grade products like BRBF and PFC1, which is the pellet feed produced in China. This approach maximizes the value generated across our business, particularly in a time of challenging margins in the steel industry. This is only possible thanks to our flexible portfolio and integrated supply chain. On increased flexibility, I'm happy to report that our three main growth projects in iron ore are progressing as planned: Vargan Grande and Capanema, which started operations at the end of twenty twenty four, will produce a combined 14,000,000 tonnes of iron ore in 2025, securing adherence to our production guidance as well as greater portfolio flexibility. Both projects are expected to reach full capacity in the first half of twenty twenty six.

Speaker 1

Furthermore, the expansion of our plus 20 project at SLRND is advancing well, having achieved 73% of its physical progress by March. We are confident that this key project will begin operations in the second half of twenty twenty six, delivering high quality volumes at remarkably low production cost, with an expected C1 in dollars per ton at mid teens. We are advancing in the mining of the future agenda, investing in cutting edge technology and fostering innovation to enhance the safety and efficiency of our operations. We are currently operating three mines with autonomous equipment, including heavy haul trucks and drilling rigs. And recently, we extended this technology to the loading yard at the Guaiba Port in the southern system.

Speaker 1

This technology has led to a 12% increase in recovery rates at the port, allowing us to relocate personnel from higher risk activities to a safer work environment. We will gradually increase our autonomous program, expanding from 14 to 70 autonomous trucks at Serra Norte over the next three years, delivering substantial productivity improvement on the site. In our Energy Transition Metals business, we continue to see solid and consistent progress across all operations. Corporate production increased 11% year on year, achieving the highest output for first quarter since 2020. The strong performance came from Salubo and Susego operations as well as from the ramp up of the Voices Bay project in Canada.

Speaker 1

In nickel, Voices Bay announced at Puma have contributed to an 11% increase in production year on year. We are glad to see that strong operational performance, together with the positive impact of byproduct prices, have contributed to more than doubling the EBITDA of the base metals organization compared to the same period last year. Together with Sean and his leadership team, we remain highly committed to delivering continued improvements to our operational performance as well as on accelerating our value accretive growth on copper. Our Novo Carajas initiative was put in place early in the year with a dedicated leadership team, and I'm very excited with the initial insights, which only reinforced the great opportunity we have ahead of us. Now I would like to comment on the strategic partnership we announced with GIP and Allianza Energia.

Speaker 1

As you know, Vale has been dedicated to sourcing all of its energy needs from renewables for many years and reached this milestone in Brazil in 2023, '2 years ahead of schedule. Having access to clean and competitive power is crucial for us. And by bringing a strategic partner like GIP, we can create an asset light business that can help us deliver on our long term decarbonization goals. With the closing expected in the second half of the year, Vale will hold 30% of the new joint venture and will receive 1,000,000,000 in cash proceeds. Finally, I would like to highlight that we recently published our 2024 integrated report.

Speaker 1

This disclosure is part of our commitment to transparent and comparable reporting on our ESG progress and challenges. In 2024, Vale invested over $250,000,000 in decarbonization initiatives as part of our journey to net zero Scope one and two by 02/1950. In the circular mining front, we recovered almost 30,000,000 tonnes of iron ore by reusing tailings and other materials from our operations, reducing waste and creating value. The report also touches on our community relationship plans, which are channels designed to share information about our operations and implied risks and impacts. It is also a way for us to listen to the perspectives and concerns of the local communities, incorporating those into our business decisions.

Speaker 1

I invite you to read the full report to get a better understanding of our sustainability journey and how we are working to build an even better value. Now I'll turn to Marcelo Bacci to talk about our financial performance. I'll be back for closing remarks before the Q and A session. Thank you.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Gustavo, and good morning, everyone. As you can see, our pro form a EBITDA reached EUR 3,200,000,000.0 in the quarter, 8% lower year on year, which we see as a solid performance, particularly considering that iron ore prices fell 16% in the same period. The combination of the continued C1 cost reduction and an encouraging performance from Vale based metals, which doubled its EBITDA in the period, were the key factors for the resilience in the quarter. Let's take a closer look at our cost performance on the next slide. Our costs continue on a very positive momentum.

Speaker 2

In Q1, iron ore C1 cash costs, excluding third party purchases, reached $21 per tonne, 11% lower year on year, driven by our efficiency initiatives and a favorable exchange rate. With this strong start in 2025, we're even more confident in achieving our C1 cost guidance for the year of $20.5 to $22 per tonne. Our all in cost performance was also solid, with a 7% year on year reduction, reaching $54.4 per tonne. The improvement was not only driven by a lower C1, but also by lower freight costs and expenses. This was our lowest all in cost for a first quarter since 2022.

Speaker 2

Turning to our Energy Transitional Metals business. We observed a significant year on year improvement in both operational and financial metrics, already reflecting some initiatives from the asset review. In copper, our all in costs decreased by 63%, reaching $1,200 per tonne, substantially below our 2,800 to $3,003 per tonne guidance range. This was due to strong performances at Salobo and Sosego and increased by product revenues, benefiting from higher gold prices. We are highly confident on delivering our copper all in guidance in 2025.

Speaker 2

In nickel, the all in costs decreased by 4% year on year, driven by solid operating performance and higher volumes, leading to fixed cost dilution. Nickel costs should decrease in the upcoming quarters, driven by the ramp up of the Voise's Bay underground mine and by our continued efforts towards efficiency gains. Now moving on to cash generation. Recurring free cash flow reached roughly $500,000,000 in the quarter, lower than the $800,000,000 generated in Q4, mostly driven by seasonally lower EBITDA and lower than usual working capital variation. During Q1, we had a lower than normal cash collection as we opted to ship less in December of twenty twenty four, given our portfolio optimization strategy.

Speaker 2

Lastly, total CapEx was slightly lower year on year, trending in line with our guidance for 2025 of approximately $5,900,000,000 Our free cash flow generation and strong cash position were primarily used to return value to our shareholders, with the payment of $2,000,000,000 in dividends and interest on capital in March. As you can see on the next slide, this payment led to a seasonally and expectedly higher expanded net debt, which reached $18,200,000,000 in the quarter. Our expanded net debt range remains between $10,000,000,000 and $20,000,000,000 We will gradually bring it back to the mid level of this target in the coming quarters, supported by higher cash flow generation and along with a $1,100,000,000 positive impact from the Allianz Energia deal, which includes both cash and deconsolidated debt. To conclude, I would like to reinforce our focus on disciplined capital allocation, maintaining net debt within our targets, utilizing asset light strategies and delivering strong shareholder returns through dividends and buybacks. As Gustavo mentioned earlier, we also remain highly committed to improving cost and CapEx efficiencies, making sure we become an even more competitive company.

Speaker 2

With that, I now pass the floor back to Gustavo.

Speaker 1

Thanks, Marcelo. Before we open up for the Q and A session, I would like to reinforce the key takeaways from today's call. We will continue to leverage our supply chain flexibility in iron ore. Our ability to adapt the portfolio according to market conditions puts us in a unique position to maximize value. Additionally, the ramp up of the Virgin Grande and Capanema projects will further enhance this position.

Speaker 1

At Vale based Metals, we are already seeing the benefits of the asset review initiatives. Our operational performance and EBITDA generation improved quarter on quarter and year on year. And I'm highly confident that we will continue to make significant progress in the coming quarters, creating a leading energy transition metals business. Driving cost competitiveness across our businesses is a key priority for us, and I'm happy to see our Q1 performance, demonstrating that the actions we are taking are already generating results and we'll continue to do so in order to create value through the cycle. On our sustainability journey, the recently published integrated report brings updates on our progress towards our ESG targets.

Speaker 1

We remain committed to our long term goals and to continuously increasing transparency and keeping an open dialogue with our stakeholders. And finally, our disciplined capital allocation approach, combined with strategic asset light initiatives, as was the case of the Allianz joint venture, will continue to ensure healthy remuneration to our shareholders. Now let's move to the Q and A session.

Operator

We are going to start the question and answer section of the call. If you have a question, please click on the raise hand button. If your question has already been answered, you can leave the queue by clicking on the lower hand button. Please ask your question in English and limit your questions to two at a time. Our first question comes from Rafael Barcelos with Bradesco BBI.

Speaker 3

Good morning, and thanks for for taking my questions. My first question is about the iron ore market. So iron ore prices have been holding up pretty well around the hundred dollars per ton level, which is quite different from the pressure we have seen in other commodities. Right? So so just wanted to check what kind of feedback you are getting from China.

Speaker 3

How healthy do you think the iron ore market is right now? And, Gustavo, if you can complement here, I mean, what has changed at this point in your capital allocation strategy given these macro uncertainties we are dealing with? And then my second question is for Rogerio about Vale's commercial strategy. So looking at the release in your product mix, we have seen IOCJ volumes coming down, concentration in China going up, and the orders line becoming more relevant. So so it would be very helpful if you could talk a bit more about these movements, explain what is behind the orders line, and, of course, give us more color on the overall commercial strategy.

Speaker 3

Thank you.

Speaker 1

Gustavo here. I'll start with the question on the capital allocation given the macro environment. Look, it's certainly something we are watching closely. We haven't yet seen a material impact on our operations or financial results. As you know, we sell very little, for example, to The U.

Speaker 1

S. Nickel has been exempt. But we are monitoring closely because the situation is highly fluid. And certainly, if there is an overall impact in GDP global GDP performance, this will certainly have an impact on commodities. So what we can do and what we are doing is to be highly focused on cost efficiency and highly disciplined on how we allocate capital to make sure we preserve liquidity and we continue to deliver on our efficiency initiatives.

Speaker 1

We had a good Q1. I think that was highly encouraging for all of us, and we'll continue to do so vis a vis the current macro environment. So I'll pass to Rogerio to cover the market question.

Speaker 4

Morning, Rafael. Thank you for the question. I think the market, as Gustavo said, is fluid. It's volatile, difficult to predict, as you know. But we see it reactions differently in different geographies.

Speaker 4

Let me cover some of them. Let me start with China, which is the most important one. I think coming out of China, we see a mix of confidence and caution. A lot of the clients that we just recently, they're having their margins improved and waiting for some news from the government, especially on this new political meeting, which is expected to come in the coming weeks. But we had real signals that the market was moving in the right direction.

Speaker 4

So the first quarter twenty twenty five, we had a GDP of 5.4%, which was actually higher than expected. On the steel market, crude steel production was up 0.6%. Big iron production was even higher. Fixed asset income, which is something that we always look at on an aggregate basis, was up 4% with manufacturing and infrastructure coming very strong out of the incentives from the Chinese government. I think you all know property is still struggling, but there are some good tailwinds, especially when you look into property sales, which is actually decelerating, but at a much lower pace.

Speaker 4

So this actually gives us an indication that the market might have been at the bottom. On our client side, as I said, a lot of the clients that we have talked to are actually doing good margins of around RMB 200 per ton. But on average, that's not the general market case. But they're actually it's actually improving. They're having margins above zero.

Speaker 4

So there's a bit of confidence. I think the other indicator, which is important when you look into churn is the blast furnace utilization, which is going up over 90%. Also in terms of the steel market, as you may see, inventory at mills and traders have come down. So all in all, I think very positive from a steel side. When you look and when we translate the steel into iron ore, we see that imports actually in this quarter decreased slightly because of the situation that those trade ins faced.

Speaker 4

But at the same token, inventory has decreased. So we see a bit of a balanced market in China. But with as I said, a lot of expectations that the Chinese government would actually react to any impact that the tariffs would have and incentivize domestic consumption to offset exports. Ex joint, I think it's a little bit different. We see different markets reacting differently.

Speaker 4

Japan and Korea, for example, have a difficult challenge. We have been there talking to all our clients. Japan, there is a construction situation, which is which the market is depressed. Korea, the auto manufacturing is facing some difficulties. They're also facing the election of the new Prime Minister.

Speaker 4

And the EU, where they have some closure of some plants, but we expect to lose monetary policy. There might be some reaction. Other regions, India and Southeast Asia, some countries going up, but the rest of the world is a bit balanced. So but all in all, when you look into the global supply demand, we believe it's going to be balanced. Brazil increasing production, India decreasing.

Speaker 4

Supply is still at about 1,600,000,000 tons. But with that, with a slight oversupply, we expect prices to still be at the levels of $100 per ton.

Operator

Our next question comes from Caio Greiner with UBS. You can open your microphone.

Speaker 5

Hello. Good morning, everyone. Thank you. My first question, I wanted to get an update on your value over volume strategy. Rogerio, I know you mentioned that that iron ore markets are are resilient so far, but, I mean, what what we're seeing is that the Chinese demand environment and the economy is likely to weaken over the coming quarters.

Speaker 5

So, I mean, if in a scenario in which iron ore prices are impacted and start to move lower, at what level of prices would Vale start cutting its high cost capacity? And how much capacity are we talking about here? This has been a question we have been getting a lot from investors. And my second question for Bachi in terms of the CapEx efficiency program. Bachi, we were glad to see the CapEx moving lower on a year over year basis.

Speaker 5

It's in the right direction for a reduction compared to the previous guidance that you had. So I just wanted to so just wondering if you could give us an update on how the program is evolving, if you could elaborate a bit more on the main initiatives. And I know you already revised the the guidance downwards, but I I was just wondering if Vale still see room for more, if there's still room to revise down the CapEx figure for closer to 5,000,000,000 or 5,500,000,000.0? That would be helpful. Thank you.

Speaker 4

Okay. Before I go to the price question, let me just talk briefly about the portfolio, which was a question that was raised previously and I ended up not answering. Look, I think we have indeed sort of conceptualized, redesigned our portfolio. And we've done this under current market conditions, and we are beginning to implement these new changes. So let me provide the context and background of what I say and what I call the current market conditions.

Speaker 4

As you know, our clients are operating under very low margins. Coking coal prices are very low. So what we see today is less of a need for productivity and thus quality premiums are at their lowest. And what clients are actually seeking for is for mid grade iron ores. So in that regard and in that context, let me give you a few examples of what we're trying to do as we're starting to do.

Speaker 4

First, I think we're moving towards concentrating the most we can of our low grade iron ore to provide this mid grade products. It is an accretive movement in terms of the tons that we beneficiate, but it is also very accretive when you look into the broader portfolio and this is extremely important. We're also looking how to optimize this concentration value chain outside Brazil, looking for plants that have good logistics, plants that have good operational performance, where we have very good metallic yield so that we can make it even more profitable. I think the second initiative that I'd like to highlight is the launch of a mid grade product out of Carajas. Why mid grade?

Speaker 4

Again, this is much more appropriate to what the market is looking for. And being from Carajas, as we understand it, it actually would still have the good metallurgical properties which are delivered by the Carajas ore because of its crystalline structure. So it suits the market, but it also helps us with providing some flexibility at operational sites. So what do we mean by flexibility? This means that we can operate with lower strip ratios, eventually reduce costs, eventually increase production.

Speaker 4

But not only that, actually this allows us to increase our reserve base. So it's a very sensible move at a point that the market is actually not paying for or not actually providing us with very high premiums. Last but not least, we will need to have a transition period. And during that transition, you will see some fines, which actually not standard or non standard fines that we will need to sell, but this it will be during the transition process, okay? But I'd like just to let you rest assured that our objective function in this is always has always and will always be to maximize value.

Speaker 4

So it's not about only price realization or only volumes or only costs, it's about so the product of unit margin times volumes. So it's an absolute value maximization. This is what we're looking for. And again, as we do it and as we go through the exercise, we're flexing our supply chain. We're creating the broad portfolio that we can always come back to and if the market changes that we can change and adjust ourselves very quickly.

Speaker 4

So that's the whole picture here. The question on iron ore prices coming lower, this is a more difficult one because when we look what's going on in the world and we see all these measures coming from the tariffs, we don't know exactly what the reaction is going to be. So for example, if China reacts and actually puts a lot of incentive to the domestic economy, which is something quite likely, a lot this steel, which is currently being exported, might revert back into China. And quite frankly, this can be even more positive given the fact that steel produced in China is essentially produced out of pig iron. I think the other element that people ask a lot is, okay, prices may come down because currencies are depreciating, oil prices are coming down.

Speaker 4

It's still too early to talk about it and to see it. Some currencies have depreciated, but now coming back. My general feeling is that we will have a year, which is very similar to in which prices are going to be stable at the very same levels that we're seeing right now.

Speaker 2

Caio, in relation to the CapEx question, the first quarter is seasonally lower normally, so you shouldn't be annualizing this amount. We are still shooting for the €5,900,000,000 We are working constantly and seeing if we can find additional efficiencies, but we keep the guidance at 5.9% for the time being.

Operator

Our next question comes from Caio Ribeiro with Bank of America. You can open your microphone.

Speaker 6

All right. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for the opportunity. So my first question is on dividends. In the past years, Vale has announced extraordinary dividend payments, such as when the 10% stake in the base metals division was sold, and more recently as well in the fourth quarter.

Speaker 6

Right? So my question is with that announced transaction related to Agia, right, in which the company should receive a 1,000,000,000 cash influx, whether you see room to return that to shareholders in the form of dividends, you know, particularly given that your expanded net debt is still below the the ceiling of your self imposed cap, but now it's at $18,200,000,000, which is closer to the top of that self imposed range versus the 16,500,000,000.0 that you had in the fourth quarter, which is the last time that you announced an extraordinary dividend, is there a particular level of expanded net debt that you see the likelihood of those extraordinary dividends being, you know, highly likely? And then secondly, you know, as you ramp up Vajj and Grange and Capanama, you should be extracting more volumes, higher grade volumes, which should help with your cash cost performance just given the higher cost dilution. And you already started the year with a c one, you know, closer to the lower part of the guided range for the year in a seasonally weaker period of production and shipments. Right?

Speaker 6

So I wanted to see if you could share some color on whether you see room throughout this year to revise your cash cost guidance for the year lower and whether you see room to beat that flattish year on year production guidance. Those are my questions. Thank you.

Speaker 2

This is Marcelo speaking. In relation to dividends, we are as discussed by my colleagues before, we are in a very uncertain period in terms of market conditions. So it is not the right moment to discuss extraordinary dividends at this point. The cash inflow from the Allianza deal is already considered in our program for the year in which we intend to reduce the net debt level the expanded net debt level towards the €15,000,000,000 midrange. So we are already counting on that.

Speaker 2

And you should expect that if given market conditions and our performance, if our expanded net debt trends below €15,000,000,000 we have a higher probability of having extraordinary dividends or more buybacks. But other than that, I think it's too early to discuss that. In relation to your second question, we had indeed a very good first quarter in terms of costs. The second quarter, I would like to highlight that that's seasonally worse than the first quarter historically. Because it carries the production cost of the first quarter, which is given the lower volume, it's a higher cost.

Speaker 2

So the C1 on Q2 is going to be probably higher than in the first quarter, but still lower than the same period of last year. So looking at the year full year performance, we are very confident about the guidance that we gave. And again, it's too early at the beginning of the year to be thinking about the revision, but our level of confidence has increased indeed.

Operator

Our next question comes from Daniel Sasson with Itau BBA. You can open your microphone.

Speaker 7

Hi. Good good morning, everyone. Thanks for for taking my questions. Some of them have actually been answered. Just, if you could, give us more details on your strategy to buy ore from third parties.

Speaker 7

I know that Rogerio mentioned about having flexibility and to deal with different types of or different properties of ore to maximize absolute value. How how are you thinking about the the volumes that you're gonna buy from third parties, especially considering that that you're going through the ramp up of Vargem Grande and Capanema? That would be that would be my my question. Thank you so much.

Speaker 4

Daniel. Thanks for the question. I think first of all, I just would like to make it clear that we will only buy it if it is value accretive. If prices are at about $100 per tonne as they are today, we expect volumes to be close to what we've done last year, around 25,000,000 per ton, right. But if market prices decrease, we will cut non profitable ores, think just to make it clear.

Speaker 4

And obviously there are different miners with different kinds of ores, different types of costs. So there's a gradation in terms of costs. So as prices come down, it probably will reduce volumes, but we'll reduce it gradually. So margins differ based on product quality, railway, ports used, freight costs. So but again, rest assured that if prices come down, we will cut it accordingly, so that we always keep very accretive volumes.

Operator

Our next question comes from Carlos De Alba with Morgan Stanley. You can open your microphone.

Speaker 8

Yeah. Can you hear me now?

Speaker 9

Hello?

Operator

Yes, sir. We can hear you.

Speaker 8

Thank you very much. Just a couple of questions. One maybe for Rogelio. Can you give us, Rogelio, more color, Chris, on the ramp up, expected ramp up, or at least the the progress in the stabilization works of the plant two of the briquettes at Barao? And any color as to how the conversations with clients and the acceptance by them of this product is is evolving?

Speaker 8

And the second question, Gustavo, from a if we step back and look at what is happening in the iron ore market, what is happening in China from the demand perspective, what is gonna happen in Guinea with with Simandou and the supply expansion there, Is there any circumstances under which you feel that Vale would need to increase its exposure to iron ore deposits in Brazil? Or at this moment, you think that focusing on what you already have with with the great endowment of your reserves the efficient efficiencies that you have already put in place, you know, puts the company in a in a in a very strong position?

Speaker 4

Okay, Kas. Let me start with ramp up of our pellet plant BT01, and then I'll pass it to to Medias. From a client point of view, we have a very long lineup of clients trying and looking for testing the briquettes because industrial trials have been very successful and we're now starting to produce for the short industrial trials. Now we're starting to produce for longer industrial trials. What I can tell you is that we have a batch right now at a blast furnace client.

Speaker 4

We should be able to try it. It's a second generation of the briquettes to try within the next couple months. And also there's a lot which is in a direct reduction client. We're also expecting to test it within the next couple of months. We have been successful in producing commercial products out of BT-one.

Speaker 4

And as soon as we have these initial results, we will start actually sending lots for clients around the globe. But I will let Medeiros talk about the ramp up situation.

Speaker 10

Good morning. Hello, Carlos. So talking about the Briquette plant, it's ramping up according to expectations. As Rogerio mentioned, we have produced two batches of commercial products, one for direct reduction, another one for blast furnaces. Last month, we produced 40,000 tons of these of Briquette.

Speaker 10

Now we have the plant down for some adjustments in the mixes and other parts of the plant. And maybe in a week or ten days, we'll be ready to start production again. And our expectations is that until the year end, we should be producing about 600,000 tons of briquette. I'll hand over now to Gustavo.

Speaker 1

So Carlos, to your question on the iron ore deposits, you're right. I think we have a very unique endowment, not only in base metals, but also in iron ore. We've launched it early in the year, the new Carajas initiative. And we are seeing a lot of good insights from the team on our ability to increase copper, but also make sure we bring it back the Northern Range to about 200,000,000 tons a year, which would be highly accretive for our shareholders. So we are very focused on that.

Speaker 1

We are always looking for things beyond that in our portfolio if they make sense. But they if we consider that they will make sense, they have to make sure and they have to fit within our capital allocation framework, our return thresholds, our risk assessment and so on. But you are right, I think most of the opportunities today reside on the development of our own endowment.

Operator

Our next question comes from Rodolfo Angeli with JPMorgan. You can open your microphone.

Speaker 11

Hi. Good morning, everyone. I have two questions here. The first is on on the nickel business. We we see iron ore doing well.

Speaker 11

The trend of cost going down. The results on copper were quite impressive. But nickel remains you know, even though you were able to cut costs, it's a business that's generating very, very little EBITDA. And we know it comes with, by no mistake, includes $12,000,000,000 in CapEx every year. So can you talk a little bit more about, you know, what can be done on that front?

Speaker 11

And my second question is is to Roger or Roger. Vale has always been very creative in in terms of commercial strategy, and we don't have to discuss BRBF and blending, which was really, really smart. But as we look into the future with the coming of Simandou, what can be done there? Because I feel like briquettes are great for a time when, clearly, we move into decarbonization, but there may be a gap in terms of a timing where, you know, we're gonna have more and more high quality material. Not only that, but in the hands of Chinese and your competitor.

Speaker 11

So, you know, what can be done on that front? So those are my two questions, and thank you very much.

Speaker 12

Rodolfo, good morning. It's Sean in Toronto. So to your question on nickel, I think I'll zoom out for a second and just take you back to the journey we talked about on the last earnings call. You may recall we talked about starting off with reducing our overhead to reduce the burden on our operations and both copper and nickel. We termed this internally Project Catalyst, and we talked about achieving a run rate of around USD 200,000,000 a year of cost reduction.

Speaker 12

We've achieved that. In fact, I think we've exceeded what we had expected, and we've actually tried to take that further just given the uncertainty that we're seeing geopolitically and in the markets. And so to give you a sense relative to our plans, so including the overhead reductions, which, of course, have one off costs, that run rate is around a third of our global overhead reduction and just far greater levels of engagements and opportunity and focus on business. We're at around about $285,000,000 for the year. So the team has exceeded really what I thought they could achieve.

Speaker 12

And we're going to continue on that sort of cost efficiency program, which looks at just cash flow opportunities across the board. And that includes the nickel business. Now you've seen there's a lag between production and sales. I think as you look to nickel, bear in mind, not only are we focusing on the overhead reduction programs, you may recall, we have this year, we'll have a full year of furnace one, which will contribute to fixed cost dilution and volumes. We will and we're on track to bring on the second furnace at Onsipuma, which will take place during Q3, and we should start seeing volumes by the end of Q3 occurring, which will again add to fixed cost dilution.

Speaker 12

And you'll recall, we announced around the time of Vale Day last year that we just finished the Voisey's Bay mine expansion. I was at site a few weeks ago. The team is doing remarkably well on that ramp up. I think they're about 108 or just above where they plan to be through Q1 and are doing well. And then in Sudbury, you'll recall, we are focusing on our ramping up our productivities.

Speaker 12

We're targeting about a 30% productivity improvement and to maximize the utilization of our mill at 5,500,000 tonnes this year and then to go beyond. So my message to you is you should start seeing more of those cost improvements because our focus for this business under any scenario is not to try buy our way to a sustainable future in nickel. It's to firstly extract the potential going beyond what was identified in the asset review, minimizing cost, maximizing our our internal throughputs, focusing in a very disciplined way on cash margins and our ability to make sure we can generate value through the cycle. And then I say the residual focus is to make sure that we given the uncertainty and oversupply for the next several years, at least coming out of Indonesia, is to position our portfolio through these activities in the lower half of the cost curve to be able to be resilient and to be able to give us and our our investors the benefit in better price environments in the future. And lastly, you'll recall as part of that initiative, we're also looking at the portfolio optimization, and we'd announced previously the review strategic review on Thompson.

Speaker 12

I just got back yesterday from Thompson, spent time on the ground there with the team, and they were focusing on not just the progress of that of that initiative, which we've just finished the first round of, and we're we're now we'll be progressing that through to the next phase and then making a decision as to what our future holds with that asset in the second half of the year. So hopefully, that answered your question, but I think you should expect volumes to be increasing through this year in nickel. Our overheads are down. That will be flowing through in all our results as we go forward. And you'll see the fixed cost dilution as our volumes come up in nickel through this year.

Speaker 12

And then we will continue to find ways to maximize value from our portfolio and our endowment. So hopefully, that gives you a good sense.

Speaker 4

Odo, first of all, you very much for your comments on our innovative commercial strategy. I think that's very good to hear about it. On briquettes, I think you're right. Even though they can be used with good results performance in blast furnaces, the real transformation, the real breakthrough comes when it's used together with direct production, which is going to be more and more used during the decarbonization journey. But on Simandou specifically, which was your question, Simandou has been in the market for quite some time.

Speaker 4

Obviously, when such a big project is actually put forward in the market, a lot of other investments they get actually postponed. So this is just one element. The other one that I would like to highlight is what we've talked about during our Vale Day, which is if you look into the industry, you have a natural depletion between 3% to 4% a year. And if you calculate this on top of 1,600,000,000 tons of seaborne iron ore, we're talking about a 50,000,000 to 60,000,000 tons depletion per year, which actually offsets the entry of Simandou to the market in a couple of years. So this is important to first point that I would like to highlight.

Speaker 4

Second one is that it is not only Simandou high quality ore which is coming to the market. A lot of the players who are developing two of the players who are developing Simandou are also planning to bring lower quality ores into the market to provide their blends. So what I want to say here is that ultimately the amount of the surplus of high grade iron ore to the market might not be as just purely simple looking to the amount of cement do. And that actually allows us a room to play. Having said that, this decision on the portfolio, the flexibilization of the supply will come in very handy because depending on how the market evolves, we will have a portfolio of products that we can tap into, a comprehensive portfolio of products that we can tap into to maximize value.

Speaker 1

Rodolfo, Gustavo here. Maybe just a quick note to add. I was with Rogerio and our commercial team recently in Asia. And despite all of the noise we hear in terms of delay, decarbonization and so on, our clients in China, Korea, Japan remain highly focused on decarbonizing their production processes. So this is something for me was good to hear.

Speaker 1

Certainly, I'm not saying we don't have challenges on that agenda globally, but I continue to see our key clients highly focused on pursuing decarbonized routes, which I think it was encouraging for us to see a lot of momentum, for example, that we are seeing the mega hubs strategy, people are not moving back. So that was I think a good data point that we got recently from our clients.

Operator

Next question from Marina Calero with RBC. You can open your microphone.

Speaker 13

Good morning. Thanks for the call. I have a couple of questions on my side. First, on your production performance, it looks like rain levels in the north of system were heavier than usual in Q1. Can you give us some color on how production has been progressing so far in Q2?

Speaker 13

And then my second question is, can you remind us how much debt is linked to Allianz Energia? Thank you.

Speaker 10

Okay. Marina, thanks for your question. So the rainfall during Q1 were unusually high. Just to put it some context, in the port in February, the rainfall levels were the highest in twenty years. So in March, particularly in Serra Norte, we had a rainfall that was three times higher than the average.

Speaker 10

So all these had an impact in our infrastructure that explains part of the lower volume that we saw. All these problems were fixed. And I must say that all the everything that we have in place in our port work, the drainage systems, they worked. But the issue here was being close to the TML. We had to be extra careful in the way we handle our products.

Speaker 10

So all this is behind. The rainfall now is back to normal levels in our mines in the North. And also we expect the rain season to be over in the next two, three weeks in our port. So, so far in Q2 in April, we have produced around 1,000,000, one point one million more than the same period of last year. So I'm talking about the first twenty, twenty one days of April.

Speaker 10

So that confirms that we are in the right path as far as our reliability and the stability of our production processes, okay?

Speaker 2

Marina, in terms of the Allianz deal, the impact on that is minor, is around $100,000,000 of deconsolidated debt, in addition to the $1,000,000,000 of cash that we're going to receive, of course.

Operator

Our next question comes from Christopher Lafemina with Jefferies. You can open your microphone.

Speaker 9

Hi, guys. Hopefully, you can hear me okay. Thanks for taking my question. Most of my questions on operations have been answered. But I wanted to ask about, capital allocation.

Speaker 9

And other mining companies are talking more about kind of stepping up their capital returns. Valley obviously has a really strong track record in terms of dividends and even buybacks, and you're trading at an extraordinarily inexpensive valuation. So if we're if we go into 2026 and the iron market is as resilient as we expect, generating good cash flow, your net debt is approaching the middle of that, that net debt target range. Do you step up the pace of buybacks? How do you look at buybacks versus dividends?

Speaker 9

Because it seems like buying back shares at the current price or current valuation is very compelling option for you. So that's my first question. And secondly, it's interesting how it feels like in in the world of iron ore, we're always playing defense and trying to understand strategic decisions in a weaker market and what might prevent that weaker market from happening. But, of course, you know, we don't know where prices are gonna go, and it's possible that we get higher prices. And I'm wondering, you know, you've been the leader in terms of value over volumes and generally estimate taking capacity offline in weaker markets.

Speaker 9

But how how does Vale change operationally in the in the event that prices materially and somewhat sustainably surprise to the upside? So if we're in a hundred and 20, hundred and $30 price range for a period of time, what do you do differently in that case? Thank you.

Speaker 2

Christopher, this is Marcelo speaking. Thank you for your questions. In terms of capital allocation, we are now in a phase, as I mentioned before, that our intention is to bring our net debt back to the middle of the range, around $15,000,000,000 If we approach that faster than we expect and of course, you're right that there's a lot of uncertainty on the market scenario and prices could go higher than we are seeing today. The trend of having extraordinary dividends and buybacks is, of course, higher. And the choice between the two alternatives will depend a lot on where the share price is.

Speaker 2

If you remember last quarter, we decided to approve a new volume of buyback program considering that the share price was very attractive for that. So you should be monitoring the combination of the share price and the level of expanded net debt. And given the fact that we when we are back to the $15,000,000,000 level and if price levels are attractive as they are today, we have a higher chance of having more buybacks.

Speaker 1

Christophe, Gustavo here. I think on second question, I think one of the unique advantages and characteristic of Vale is the fact that we have a very wide flexible portfolio, right? And if you look last year just to give an example, we removed 8,000,000 tons from the market in Q4 because prices were not there. Now that we are having Vargan Grande, Capanema and later plus 20 coming online, I think we're finally having after many years a greater flex and even greater flexibility to play value of a volume. So in a positive scenario like the one you quoted, I'm sure you're going to have the opportunity to go further in our supply capture value as we can do when the markets are down.

Speaker 1

So I think the three projects we are bringing online, they will be critical for us to have increased flexibility to play even more the value of volume. And every single ship that we sell, every single vessel that goes out to the market, we make money on it. So we are very disciplined on how we allocate our cargoes and volumes into the market and we'll continue to do so.

Speaker 4

Addition to what Gustavo is saying, working on a more comprehensive menu of products if you will, that we can access and change our mine plans, our logistics very quickly adjust it to the market reality. So if prices go up, we can change it quickly. If prices come down, we can react similarly quickly. So that's exactly what we're building. We have the capabilities, we have the systems, but we're trying to make it more fluid.

Operator

Our next question comes from Yuri Pereira with Santander. You can open your microphone.

Speaker 14

Hi, guys. Good morning. Thank you. First question to Sean. Do you have any sensitivity of gold prices on company's copper costs?

Speaker 14

And maybe to Gustavo regarding the Mariana agreement, do you have recently more municipalities searching for an agreement with you?

Speaker 12

Sensitivity, obviously, we're we're experiencing pretty good gold environment right now. You'll see that for every hundred dollar an ounce move in in gold price, What that does for our oil in cost for copper is about $135 a tonne.

Speaker 1

On your question on the municipalities, the time has passed. So we had a deadline for municipalities to join. So the majority of it joined. And the ones that have not joined, we will not be able to enjoy the payments that have been already made to the other ones.

Operator

This concludes today's question and answer session. Vale's conference is now concluded. We thank you for your participation and wish you a nice day.

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Earnings Conference Call
Vale Q1 2025
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