Grupo Financiero Galicia Q4 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
February 28, 2025

There are 9 speakers on the call.

Operator

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to Grupo Financiero Galicia's Fourth Quarter twenty twenty four Earnings Call. This conference is being recorded and a replay will be available at the company's website at gfgsa.com. We would like to inform you that all attendees will only be listening to the conference during the presentation and then we will start the Q and A section when further instructions will be provided. Some of the statements made during this conference call will be forward looking statements within the meaning of the Safe Harbor provision of The U.

Operator

S. Federal Securities Laws and are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed. Investors should be aware of events related to the macroeconomic scenario, the financial industry and other factors that could cause results to differ materially from those expressed in the respective forward looking statements. Now, I'll turn the conference over to Mr. Pablo Firvida, Head of Investor Relations.

Operator

You may begin your conference, sir.

Speaker 1

Thank you. Good morning and welcome to this conference call. I'm here today with Gonzalo Fernando Cabaro, the newly appointed CFO of Grupo Financiro Galicia and former CFO of HSBC Argentina. I will make a short introduction, and then we will take your questions. According to the Monthly Economic Activity Indicator, MAE, Argentina's economy recorded a year over year growth of 5.5% in December compared to December 2023.

Speaker 1

Meanwhile, the expansion during the fourth quarter reached 1.3% in seasonally adjusted terms. Latest EMEA figures indicate Argentina's economy contracted by 1.8% on average during 2024. In the fourth quarter of twenty twenty four, the primary surplus stood at 0.14% of GDP, contrasting with a primary deficit of 1.49% in the fourth quarter of twenty twenty three. In 2024, the primary surplus stood at 1.8% of GDP, and the overall fiscal surplus was of 0.3% of GDP. This implied a significant improvement against the 2.9% primary deficit for 2023, result that was explained by a 206% increase in revenues year over year, while primary spending rose by 134%.

Speaker 1

The National Consumer Price Index recorded an 8% increase during the fourth quarter of twenty twenty four and reached 117.8% annual variation in 2024, down from 211.4% inflation in 2023. Monthly inflation has been decelerating, declining from 25.5% in December 2023 to 2.2% in January 2025. The Central Bank devalued the exchange rate by 54.2% on 12/13/2023, after which a 2% monthly cron impact was maintained throughout 2024. In December 2024, the exchange rate averaged 1,020.7 per dollar, reflecting a 45.5% year over year devaluation. As of 02/01/2025, the Central Bank reduced the exchange rate crawl to 1% per month.

Speaker 1

Since the administration took office, the Central Bank has reduced the policy interest rate eight times from 133% to its current 29%. In December 2024, the average rate on peso denominated private sector time deposits for up to fifty nine days stood at 33%, eighty nine percentage points below the December 2023 average. Private sector deposits in pesos averaged trillion in December, increasing by 20.9% during the quarter and 127.3% in the last twelve months. Time deposits rose 27% during the quarter and 176.2% in the year. Peso denominated transactional deposits increased 15.2% during the fourth quarter and 93.3% in year over year terms.

Speaker 1

Private sector dollar denominated deposits amounted to $31,800,000,000 in December 2024, increasing 35.6% during the quarter and 119.7% in the last twelve months. Peso denominated loans to the private sector averaged trillion in December, showing a 31% quarterly increase and a 228.8 percent year over year rise. Private sector dollar denominated loans amounted to $9,900,000,000 recording a 37.4% quarterly growth and a 186% annual increase. Before going to the figures for the fourth quarter and for the fiscal year of 2024, it is worth to mention that on December 6, the closing of the acquisition of HSBC operations in Argentina took place, consolidating Grupo Inanciro Galicia's position as the largest private sector financial group in Argentina. As a result of this transaction, seven and twenty four point five billion gain was recorded, which corresponds to the difference between the fair value of the acquired companies and the amount paid.

Speaker 1

This result, net of adjustments and provisions related to the transaction, ARS $485,000,000,000. Turning now to Grupo Financiro Valencia. Net income for 2024 amounted to ARS 1,600,000,000,000.0, 1 hundred and 20 1 percent higher than in the previous year, which represented a 7% return on average assets and a 34% return on average shareholders' equity. The result was mainly due to profits from Banco Galicia for ARS 1,300,000,000,000.0, from Naranca X for ARS $228,000,000,000 and from Galicia Asset Management for ARS 68,000,000,000, partially offset by an ARS 8,100,000,000.0 loss from Galicia Seguros. Going to the fourth quarter, net income attributable to Grupo Financiro Galicia amounted to ARS $574,000,000,000, 2 0 3 percent higher from the year ago quarter, mainly due to profits from Banco Galicia for ARS527 billion, from Naranha Ex for ARS23 billion, from Galicia Asset Management for ARS19 billion and ARS3.9 billion from Galicia Seguros.

Speaker 1

This profit represented a 7.9% annualized return on average assets and a 45% return on average shareholders' equity. Going to Banco Galicia, net income for the quarter was ARS527 billion profit, 311% higher than in the same quarter of 2023, as a ARS575 billion gain was recorded due to the acquisition of HSBC operations in Argentina. At the bank level, provisions for restructuring for almost ARS100 billion were recorded. The operating result decreased 83% from the year ago quarter, primarily due to a 58% lower net operating income as net interest income decreased 56% and results from gold and foreign currency quotation differences went down 97%. Average interest earning assets reached 11,700,000,000,000.0, 7 percent higher than in the same quarter of 2023, primarily due to a 542% increase of the average portfolio of dollar denominated loans and of the 26% in loans in pesos, partially offset by a 78% reduction in the average balance of other interest earning assets in pesos.

Speaker 1

In the same period, its yield decreased 52 percentage points, reaching 39.95%. Interest bearing liabilities increased 47% from December 2023, amounting to 11,900,000,000,000.0, primarily due to the increase of deposits in dollars. During this period, its cost decreased 58 percentage points to 15.4%. Net interest income decreased 56% when compared to the fourth quarter of twenty twenty three. This was the result of a 63% decrease in interest income because of lower interest on government securities on repo transactions and on loans to the private sector, together with a 69 decrease in interest expenses, mainly due to lower interest on time deposits.

Speaker 1

Net fee income increased 10% from December 2023 due to increases in most of the products and services. Net income from financial instruments increased 234% due to higher results from government securities. Gains from gold and FX quotation differences were 97% lower from the year ago quarter, including the results from foreign currency trading. Other operating income decreased 30% in the quarter, while provision for loan losses increased 80% because of the growth of the financing portfolio. Personnel expenses were 20% higher than in the fourth quarter of twenty twenty three, primarily due to the reporting of a ARS 1 hundred billion provision for restructuring expenses.

Speaker 1

Administrative expenses increased 15% due to higher expenses for maintenance and repairment of goods and IT, which were up 33% to a 34% growth of fees and compensation for services and to a 13% increase of higher administrative services. Other operating expenses decreased 36% due to a 52% lower turnover tax related to financial operations. The bank's financing to the private sector reached ARS 10,500,000,000,000.0 at the end of the quarter, up 76% in the last twelve months, with dollar denominated financing growing 157% and peso financing increasing 56%. By credit line, promissory notes increased 119, personal loans 159% and credit card financing 31%. Net exposure to public sector decreased 40% year over year due to the reduction of repo transactions and of government securities in pesos.

Speaker 1

This exposure represented 22% of total assets as of the end of the quarter compared to 41% of the year before. Deposits reached ARS 14,300,000,000,000.0, 18 percent higher than a year before, mainly due to a 66% increase in dollar deposits, partially offset by a 5% decrease in deposits in pesos. The bank's estimated market share of loans to the private sector was 12.8%, one hundred and eighty nine basis points higher than at the end of a year ago quarter, and the market share of deposits from the private sector was 13.8%, three ninety six basis points higher than in the same quarter of 2023. The bank's liquid assets represented 63.6% of transactional deposits and 44.5% of total deposits compared to 96.967.7%, respectively, from a year before. As regards asset quality, the ratio of nonperforming loan to total financing ended the quarter at 1.85%, reporting a 49 basis points improvement as compared to the 2.34% of the fourth quarter of the prior year.

Speaker 1

At the same time, the coverage with allowances reached 186.3%, up 44.6 percentage points from the 141.6% recorded a year ago. As of the December 2024, the bank's total regulatory capital ratio reached 18.5%, decreasing six twenty six basis points from the end of the same quarter of 2023, mainly due to the deduction of the equity participation in Galicia Mas. This ratio consolidated in accordance with the rules established by the Central Bank amounted to 21.6%. In summary, Grupo Finaciro Valencia was able to keep asset quality, liquidity, solvency and profitability metrics at very healthy levels. We are now ready to answer the questions that you may have.

Speaker 1

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. We are now going to start Q and A session for investors and analysts.

Speaker 1

Okay. From Brian Flores, the first question, right?

Operator

The first question comes from Brian Flores from Citi. Please, Mr. Flores, your mic comes open.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Tim. Good morning for the opportunity to ask questions. I have two questions. The first one is on your projections for ROE of this year. I know conditions have been changing a lot.

Speaker 2

So just wanted to hear how should we think in terms of growth and ROE for this year? And then if I may, a second question on capital. We saw a very strong consumption of Tier one ratio from quarter to quarter. So if you could help us think about how will you going to fund the growth in the coming quarters? If would you raise capital or dollars, for example, now that it can be used on the asset side?

Speaker 2

Would you be open to make a follow on? Or are you all considering that it's going to be organic funding Just because the level of capital seems a bit tighter now to fund growth. So just wanted to hear your thoughts on both of these. Okay.

Speaker 1

Hello, Brian. Well, first, regarding the growth, we are seeing so far in January and February, a better growth rates in loans than expected. So I would say that at least loans would be growing from December to December, not on average, around 50%. Deposits would be growing something below, perhaps 35%. But of course, beginning from different starting points, different scopes between deposits and loans.

Speaker 1

ROE, well, you saw that 2024 was some kind of extraordinary due to the first half in which we were benefited by increases in government in the prices of government securities plus the acquisition of HSBC. So we ended with around 34% real ROE. In 2025, we will not have these two extraordinary items. And also, we will be, I would say, focusing on merging the operations of Galicia and HSBC. So there will be some extraordinary expenses, although we provision part of that in the fourth quarter.

Speaker 1

But we are forecasting that the ROE will be in the area of 15% in real terms, With the idea that beginning in 2026, we should be getting or trying to have KPIs on ROEs in the area of between, I would say, 1520%, again, in real terms. So 2025 will be a year of transition and then ROEs should be rebounding. In terms of capital, there is a little bit or some technical issues. Let me explain. The total capital ratio on a stand alone basis for Banco Orissa was 18.5%.

Speaker 1

That includes the how do you say it? The deduction, thank you, of the equity participation of Carnichia Mas. If we consolidate that, we will get to EUR 21,600,000,000.0. And also in the capital to take into account or to make the calculation of the capital ratio due to Central Bank rules, we are not taking today 100% of the result of the fourth quarter. So that will be taken in at the February or beginning March.

Speaker 1

So the if we were adjusting that capital ratio for that two months lag, the capital ratio would be in the order of 24%. According to our estimates, we will not be needing any capital increase, not in 25%, twenty six and even 'twenty seven. When and if the need appears, we would be willing to raise capital. But again, with this with the assumptions we have in our forecast, we are okay.

Speaker 3

Touching out to that, I mean, Galicia Mas, which is a former HSBC, has a very strong capital ratio. So we consolidate both ratios. We go up to 24%. Here, you see 18% because of what already Pablo mentioned that as a technicality, we need to deduct the participation in HLVC or Alicia Mas. But after June, when this is consolidated, our capital ratio will go up, and we expect to end the year with between 1920%.

Speaker 3

So no need for capital for this year. And also, according to projection, next year also, we shouldn't need capital.

Speaker 2

Perfect. And just a last follow-up here. So in terms of dividends, do you think maybe 20 to 25%, as you were mentioning, transitioning lower ROE? Should we also expect maybe a lower dividend distribution in 2025?

Speaker 1

Well, we are going to pay dividends in May after the shareholders' meeting. The proposal is subject to the approval of the Central Bank. So far, they didn't update the regulation. In the case of Grupo Finaciro Edicia, we depend from dividends from the different subsidiaries. Want to pay ARS 88,000,000,000 coming from Naranca X, the insurance business, asset management and so on.

Speaker 1

And we are forecasting ARS 400,000,000,000 coming from the bank, from the bank to group of Industrial Adhesion, but subject to the regulation of the Central Bank.

Speaker 3

It's the same amount in dollars than prior year, but a lower proportion of retained earnings, let's say. But in dollars, it should be similar to what we paid last year, considering a very high result that we are having this year.

Operator

Our next question comes from Carlos Lopez from HSBC. So

Speaker 4

two questions. First, in terms of the dividend, do you need to pay a dividend? I mean you are projecting high growth. Yes, you can pay it from the subsidiaries. You can take some from the bank.

Speaker 4

But if you are thinking that by 2027, you might already get into the need for capital for growth, why do you need to pay a dividend at this point? My second question refers to inflation adjustments. As we go into a lower inflation phase, when do you think that you could contemplate or the regulation could contemplate moving out of inflation accounting? What year would that be? That be announced?

Speaker 4

And would that be effective? On

Speaker 3

the first part of dividends, I mean,

Speaker 1

according

Speaker 3

to our estimations, we shouldn't need capital for including 2027. So 2025, '20 '20 '6 and 2027, we don't need capital until the end of 2028. We'll need to see how it continues. But for the next three years, including this, we are not needing capital. Our strategy is to continue to pay a standardized level of dividends to our shareholders.

Speaker 3

Just practically, we are trying to get to a common or a standardized level of dividends because here in the high profits that we are reporting. And in reality, again, we are not needing capital for 2027 according to our projections. So it's three year times, we'll see in 2028, but it's not for sure that we will need to raise capital. We need to see how the variables evolve. But the idea was to continue paying, like, a standardized dividend.

Speaker 4

And sorry, if I can inquire there. So that standard is the same amount in dollars, the same amount in

Speaker 3

No, we will we have policy now with the same amount in dollar. This year, we are trying to get to a percentage on the results. We are not ready to provide a guidance on that, but we want as Argentina stabilized, we are able to predict better in the future. We plan to get to a standardized event and to provide a guidance. We are not ready to do that.

Speaker 3

So but that's why we want to say, well, we are not paying any dividend, no, as you were saying before. Regarding the how the when the inflation accounting will stop, you need to have a it's like

Speaker 1

three years of accumulated inflation. Less than 100%.

Speaker 3

Yes. Yes.

Speaker 1

When actually, we began adjusting by inflation when for three years, the accumulated inflation came above 100. In order to eliminate that, we need three years of accumulated inflation below 100%. So if this year is, let's say, '23, '20 '5 percent, and the two following years are in the same level, in 2028, we could be having our numbers not adjusted by inflation.

Speaker 3

And that's something that's notified by the entity, of course, it's defined by the group international auditors that qualifies the country. So after you cut that inflation accumulative below 100%, projections should be that you will continue to do that. And then this task force that meets, I think, regularly can decide if Argentina can get out. It's not something that we can decide laterally. But after having these three years below 100%, we are in conditions to apply for that.

Speaker 3

To

Speaker 4

And it's a calendar year, right? So it will be '25, '20 '6, '20 '7, and then they would design '28, and it might apply already in '28 or already in '29?

Speaker 3

I mean it's by the end of the month, but it's again, it's three full calendar years of lower than 100%, and then country is available for this task force to decide that the country can move out from that list. In theory, in the next three years, we should be able if this continues to move that. So this '25, '20 '6, '20 '7, maybe in '28. But again, it's something that is not that easy to predict.

Speaker 4

And if I can follow-up, I don't think you have mentioned what your expectations are for inflation and exchange rate for this year and next?

Speaker 1

Yes. Our chief economist is forecasting, well, in general, a very good year with a 5.5% GDP growth, inflation in the range of 2325%. And the evaluation of the official exchange rate is similar to the estimated inflation. The question there is when the FX, as we call it, all these restrictions on the FX will be lifted and if that will imply some kind of jump or intervention from the Central Bank. But in the best case scenario, this is these are his estimates.

Operator

Our next question comes from Pedro Ofenheiden from Loring Securities. I

Speaker 5

have two questions regarding securities. How do you expect the weight of securities to evolve in 2025 this year? And if do you have any projections of how the loan to asset and security to asset ratio could be throughout this year?

Speaker 1

Excellent. Pedro, well, as we were saying in previous calls and meetings, the breakdown of our assets was strange. And we were saying that the government exposure should be going down while loan to private sector should be going up. Actually, in some quarters ago, government exposure represented 40% of total assets and loans to private sector around 30%. And this quarter changed completely.

Speaker 1

The loans represents around 42% of the total assets in the case of the bank and government exposure, 22% of total assets. So we are going into that trend. When we think or look at years like 2017 or 2018, loans to the private sector represented roughly 65% of total assets and government bonds around 15%. So gradually, we should be getting to these numbers. Of course, in the past, we have lots of government bonds because we were forced to take time deposits with a minimum interest rate and loan demand was not there due to high inflation and high nominal interest rates.

Speaker 1

That's why we ended with a big portion of our assets being government bonds and also in the past, a Central Bank paper. But as the system is normalizing, loans should be gaining share while government bonds should be losing share.

Speaker 5

Thank you, Pablo. And if I can ask on the timing of that, like going back to the 2017 or 'eighteen levels, would be the end of this year, 2026?

Speaker 1

Well, perhaps, in many times, Argentina surprised us for the good and for the bad. Changes are quicker than expected. With the loan demand, we are seeing perhaps already at the end of this year, we could be perhaps not 65%, but 60% or so. So we are seeing a very strong demand, as I mentioned, also in already in January and February. So perhaps by year end, we could be having 60% of loans compared to total assets.

Speaker 1

And of course, a reduction in government exposure.

Operator

Our next question comes from Jorge Mouro from Fundamenta. My

Speaker 6

question is regarding the provisions at Naranha Aitis. When you look at the provisioning this quarter, they increased more than 100%. It's a 15 q on q. So I'm just trying to understand what has been driven this and and what should we expect going forward.

Speaker 1

Excellent. Hi, Jorge. Well, in the in the case of Naranhaex, they increased the cost of risk roughly from 9% to 18%. This is extraordinary why for two reasons. The first one is they were using an expected loss model that took into account certain variables that they use for a credit card lending.

Speaker 1

That was the main product in the past. Once they began being a financial company, so therefore, taking deposits and granting personal loans, now the personal loans need another type of variables in order to estimate future losses. So they did all this change in the fourth quarter. And also, they changed the number of days in which they need to have charge offs. So it was extraordinary, and we think going forward, it should get back to a more normal level like this 9% or 9.5% they had in previous quarters.

Speaker 6

Okay. So essentially, as you now you have a one off hit because you need to increase provisions. Okay. I got it.

Speaker 1

Yes.

Speaker 6

So on a on a recurring basis, it should go back to around 10%?

Speaker 1

Exactly. Our

Operator

next question comes from Brian Flores from Citi.

Speaker 2

Thank you. Thank you for the opportunity to ask another question. Just Pablo, I want to ask you on the write offs at the Tarketo Naranja and also the volatility that this has driven, right? We saw fourth quarter sorry, third quarter with over 40% levels of ROE. Now we have around 11%.

Speaker 2

And particularly, graduates were increasing very strongly over the quarter. So if you could just explain if this is some seasonality, some deterioration in, I don't know, the credit conditions, anything that you could help us provide, sorry, provide to help us understand a bit better would be great.

Speaker 1

Well, I think I answered that to Jorge in the previous answer or question. But basically, it's an extraordinary quarter because they changed the expected loss model. Basically, had certain or some variables that were used in the past for calculating the expected losses on credit card financing. And now as they are growing very fast with personal loans, they needed to adjust this model because personal loan financing is riskier than credit card financing. And also, they changed the the charge off methodology.

Speaker 1

Basically, they changed the number of days in which they begin having this charge off. So the cost of risk increased from 9% to 18%, basically big numbers. It should get back down to levels of 9% to 10% cost of risk. Also, Naranja X is investing a lot in growth. So that's why you see some deduction or reduction in ROEs.

Speaker 1

They are growing very fast in number of clients, actually around 200,000 clients per month. So they are investing to grow. But the all the operational variables are very healthy.

Speaker 2

Super helpful, Pablo. If I may, so then how should we think about the structural levels of ROE of Tarjetas? Do you think it's due to its efficiency, because I know it's very good, it's like something above 25%, close to 30%? Or do you think it's more close to the 20% as the consolidated group?

Speaker 1

Well, as the year in this investment and growth mood, I think during this year, we will see 15% to 20% real ROE. And then the target will be to have somewhat higher, typically in normal conditions as Naranja X tackles riskier segments, their ROE should be somewhat higher than the bank.

Speaker 2

Perfect, Carlo. Thank you.

Speaker 7

Excellent. Thank you.

Speaker 6

You.

Speaker 1

Any other question? Yes, Marc Claudio, right?

Operator

Yes. Our next question comes from Marc Claudio Pina from Inca Investments. Mr. Pina, your microphone is open.

Speaker 7

I just have a very quick question. Can you please confirm the actual number of shares you have at the end of the quarter? Because I've seen two numbers here. So I just want to make sure I have everything absolutely correct.

Speaker 1

The number of shares you said, Matlobio? Yes, please. Yes. As of the December and after the the first increase in in capital to pay HSBC, it was $1.05 $88,500,000.0 shares. In order to take ADRs, you have to divide by 10.

Speaker 6

By 10. Okay.

Speaker 1

In February, we had a second issuance of share to make a price adjustment. This was 17,700,000.0 shares. Again, 1.77 ADRs would be, million ADRs. So today, the final number of shares is 1,606,250,000.00 shares.

Speaker 4

Okay.

Speaker 7

Excellent. Great. Thank you very much, Paolo. I really appreciate it. Thanks for your time.

Speaker 1

My pleasure.

Operator

Our next question comes from Murillo Ricchini from Bradesco BBI. Please Mr. Ricchini, your microphone is open.

Speaker 8

Thank you, guys. Thank you for the call. I would like to better understand the dynamics of the ROE. So this skyrocket of the ROE during the fourth quarter. If you could try to clean up a little bit this number with the one offs just to better understand the dynamics for the future?

Speaker 8

Already heard that you are expecting something around 15% for 2025. So just to confirm this number as well. Thank you,

Speaker 1

Murillo, yes, the fourth quarter was impacted by the acquisition of HSBC. There, we said that the difference between the fair value and the amount paid was ARS 7 and 24,500,000,000.0, but the net amount after some provisions we did for restructuring purposes was ARS $485,000,000,000. Also, when we look at all the year ROE, it was influenced by the first half of the year in which we had very high yields from government bonds. For 2025, we are saying that we will have a real ROE of around 15%, a more normalized, let's say, a number. That is or the main drivers are, well, the evolution of loans we are seeing, but also some extraordinary expenses we will have due to the merger process we are having between Galicia and HSBC's operations in Argentina.

Speaker 1

Beginning in 2026, the objective will be to go to the area between 1520%, so to improve real profitability. So this is the evolution, very high extraordinary 2024. Another extraordinary year in 2025 due to the merger and then becoming more profitable and more aggressive, if you want.

Speaker 8

Very helpful, Pablo. Thank you.

Speaker 1

You're welcome.

Operator

The Q and A section is over. We would like to hand the floor back to Pablo Ferveda for the company final remarks. Mr. Pablo, your microphone is open.

Speaker 1

Okay. Well, thank you all for attending this call. If you have any questions, please do not hesitate to contact us. Morning, good afternoon. Have a nice weekend.

Operator

Grupo Financiero Galicia, conference is now closed. We thank you for your participation and wish you

Speaker 3

a very good day.

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Grupo Financiero Galicia Q4 2024
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