Constellium Q1 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

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Provided by Quartr
April 30, 2025

Key Takeaways

  • Revenue grew 5% year-over-year to $2.0 billion, with net income rising to $38 million from $22 million and adjusted EBITDA of $186 million (including a $46 million metal price lag), although underlying EBITDA of $140 million declined versus prior year.
  • Free cash flow was negative $3 million in Q1, in line with expectations, while the company repurchased $15 million of shares and reiterated full-year free cash flow guidance above $120 million.
  • The quarter included an expected ~$20 million tariff headwind from Section 232 duties on U.S. auto extrusions, which Constellium plans to mitigate through customer pass-throughs, cost offsets, and benefits from wider U.S. scrap spreads.
  • Constellium accelerated its Vision 25 cost‐reduction program, delivering significant operating efficiencies and lower costs in Q1 and positioning for further run-rate savings.
  • End‐market demand remains mixed with strong packaging growth, a stable aerospace backlog amid supply chain delays, continued weakness and tariff-driven uncertainty in automotive, and modest green shoots in industrial specialties.
AI Generated. May Contain Errors.
Earnings Conference Call
Constellium Q1 2025
00:00 / 00:00

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Operator

Good morning or good afternoon, all, and welcome to the Constellium First Quarter twenty twenty five Results Call. My name is Adam, and I'll be your operator today. I will now hand over to Jason Hirschweizer, Director of Investor Relations, begin. So Jason, please go ahead.

Jason Hershiser
Jason Hershiser
Director of Investor Relations at Constellium

Thank you, Adam. I would like to welcome everyone to our first quarter twenty twenty five earnings call. On the call today, we have our Chief Executive Officer, Jean Marc Germain and our Chief Financial Officer, Jack Kuo. After the presentation, we will have a Q and copy of the slide presentation for today's call is available on our website at consellium.com, and today's call is being recorded. Before we begin, I'd like to encourage everyone to visit the company's website and take a look at our recent filings.

Jason Hershiser
Jason Hershiser
Director of Investor Relations at Constellium

Today's call may include forward looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such statements include statements regarding the company's anticipated financial and operating performance, future events and expectations and may involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties. For a summary of specific risk factors that could cause results to differ materially from those expressed in the forward looking statements, please refer to our factors presented under the heading Risk Factors in our annual report on Form 10 ks. All information in this presentation is as of the date of the presentation. We undertake no obligation to update or revise any forward looking statement as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise, except as required by law.

Jason Hershiser
Jason Hershiser
Director of Investor Relations at Constellium

In addition, today's presentation includes information regarding certain non GAAP financial measures. Please see the reconciliations of non GAAP financial measures attached in today's slide presentation, which supplement our GAAP disclosures. And with that, I would now like to hand the call over to Jean Marc.

Jean-Marc Germain
Jean-Marc Germain
Chief Executive Officer at Constellium

Thank you, Jason. Good morning, good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for your interest in Constellium. Let's begin on Slide five and discuss the highlights from our first quarter results. I would like to start with safety, our number one priority. We delivered strong safety performance in the first quarter with a recordable case rate of 1.02 per million hours worked.

Jean-Marc Germain
Jean-Marc Germain
Chief Executive Officer at Constellium

Despite the strong achievement, our safety journey is never complete, and we remain focused on this critical priority every day, including achieving our safety target to reduce our recordable case rate to 1.5 this year. Turning to our financial results, shipments were 372,000 tons or down 2% compared to the first quarter of twenty twenty four due to higher shipments in pulp that were more than offset by lower shipments in A and T and AS and I. Revenue of $2,000,000,000 increased 5% compared to the first quarter of twenty twenty four, primarily due to higher metal prices, partially offset by lower shipments. Remember, while our revenues are affected by changes in metal prices, we operate a pass through business model, which minimizes our exposure to metal price risk. Our net income of $38,000,000 in the quarter compares to net income of $22,000,000 in the first quarter last year.

Jean-Marc Germain
Jean-Marc Germain
Chief Executive Officer at Constellium

Adjusted EBITDA was $186,000,000 in the quarter, although this includes a positive noncash impact from metal price lag of $46,000,000 If we exclude the impact of metal price lag, the real economic performance of the business reflects adjusted EBITDA of $140,000,000 in the quarter compared to the $160,000,000 last year when the operating environment was comparatively more favorable. The adjusted EBITDA of $140,000,000 this quarter also includes a foreign exchange headwind of $4,000,000 and a negative impact at the Vale of four of ten million dollars as a result of the flood last year. Regarding The Vale, as of today, the business has resumed normal operations, which is in line with our prior expectations. While this was a very serious incident that impacted our financial performance the last three quarters, our operations in The Vale have emerged with a lower cost structure at run rate. And at this time, we're happy to put it into our rearview mirror.

Jean-Marc Germain
Jean-Marc Germain
Chief Executive Officer at Constellium

I want to thank one more time our entire team on the ground there for their efforts and incredible results throughout this very difficult time. Moving now to free cash flow. Our free cash flow in the quarter was negative $3,000,000 and in line with our expectations to start the year. We continue to expect to generate positive free cash flow this year of greater than $120,000,000 During the quarter, we returned $15,000,000 to shareholders through the repurchase of 1,400,000.0 shares. Our leverage at the end of the first quarter was 3.3 times, though we expect this to trend down by the end of the year.

Jean-Marc Germain
Jean-Marc Germain
Chief Executive Officer at Constellium

We delivered solid results this quarter, which was slightly ahead of our expectations despite a very challenging environment, including demand weakness across most of our end markets outside of packaging. We remain focused on strong cost control, free cash flow generation and commercial and capital discipline. Overall, I am quite happy with our first quarter performance. Please now turn to Slide six. Before turning the call over to Jack, I wanted to give a quick update on the Section two thirty two tariffs as well as other tariffs under IEPA and how we see the potential impact to Constellium.

Jean-Marc Germain
Jean-Marc Germain
Chief Executive Officer at Constellium

Before going into details on the slide, let me summarize a bit. The tariff situation is a fluid and multifaceted situation. We see both some positive and negative impacts on our business. And at this stage, we believe it presents us with various opportunities as well as some additional costs. The guidance we are giving today does include the direct impact from tariffs that we are able to estimate given what we know today, and it does include several mitigating factors we have identified to offset the impacts.

Jean-Marc Germain
Jean-Marc Germain
Chief Executive Officer at Constellium

It also includes our current assumptions on end market demand in the current environment. Our guidance assumes a relatively stable macro environment, and it does not include potential impacts from additional tariffs. Shifting to details of the slide now. On the production side, we are mostly local for local in the regions we operate. Our automotive structure of business in The US buys extrusion from Canada, including from our joint venture in Canada.

Jean-Marc Germain
Jean-Marc Germain
Chief Executive Officer at Constellium

These extrusions have become more expensive under Section two thirty two tariffs, which impacted the first quarter by over $1,000,000 The costs will continue to accumulate going forward, and we expect around $20,000,000 for the rest of the year before mitigating items. We are working with our customers on pass throughs and have made good progress on a number of them, and we will continue to work on pass throughs and other actions to mitigate the impact on our results. In aerospace, we shipped small quantities from Europe to The US to serve global OEMs, Although, this has a pass through today and will not be impacted. Regarding the automotive specific tariffs that fall under section two thirty two, the volumes we ship across Mexican and Canadian borders are compliant with USMCA. On the metal supply side, we import some primary aluminum from Canada given the lack of smelter capacity in The US.

Jean-Marc Germain
Jean-Marc Germain
Chief Executive Officer at Constellium

As of today, we have commercial agreements in place to help mitigate the tariff impact on this metal. In terms of scrap, aluminum scrap is excluded from the current scope of Section two thirty two tariffs, and we purchased most of our scrap needs from dealers in The US. The impact on scrap from tariffs should be a net positive as the rise in The US regional premium is beneficial for the domestic supply chain. We are starting to see this already as scrap spreads for used beverage cans in The US, for instance, started to widen in the latter part of this first quarter. In terms of commercial impacts, these two should be a net positive for Constellium.

Jean-Marc Germain
Jean-Marc Germain
Chief Executive Officer at Constellium

Today, around 1,000,000 tons of flat rolled aluminum imports are coming into The US. Tariffs will make domestically produced products more competitive, and we should benefit from this. As we mentioned last quarter, we announced the price increase for all flat rolled products shipped in The US, and this is creating benefits for us on non contracted volumes starting in the second quarter of this year. In terms of end markets, the tariff and trade situation is creating broader macro uncertainty and is having a negative impact on markets such as automotive. Our guidance had already assumed weak conditions in automotive in both North America and Europe, and we are monitoring the conditions very closely.

Jean-Marc Germain
Jean-Marc Germain
Chief Executive Officer at Constellium

That said, we are not discounting the broader macro uncertainty. We have accelerated our cost reduction efforts under our Vision 25 program, and we are optimizing our existing capacity depending on market conditions, such as shifting some capacity where we can from automotive markets into packaging markets, for instance. To close out on tariffs, as I said before, the situation remains very fluid. We are continually monitoring and assessing the potential impact of current and future trade policies. Though at this stage, we believe the tariff on aluminum, net net, presents us with some opportunities in the current environment. With that, I will now hand the call over to Jack for further details on our financial performance. Jack?

Jack Guo
Jack Guo
SVP & CFO at Constellium

Thank you, Jean Marc, and thank you, everyone, for joining the call today. Please turn now to Slide eight, and let's focus our A and T segment performance. Adjusted EBITDA of $75,000,000 decreased to 14% compared to the first quarter last year.

Jack Guo
Jack Guo
SVP & CFO at Constellium

Volume was a headwind of $20,000,000 due to lower aerospace and TID shipments. Aerospace shipments were down 11% in the quarter versus last year as commercial OEMs continue to work through excess inventory as a result of continued supply chain challenges. Demand in business and regional jets, space and military aircraft remained healthy. TID shipments were down 7% compared to last year as commercial, transportation and general industrial markets remained weak in the quarter. TID shipments were also impacted at Vale as a result of the flood from last year.

Jack Guo
Jack Guo
SVP & CFO at Constellium

Price and mix was a headwind of $16,000,000 due to a softer pricing environment in TID and weaker overall mix in the quarter. Costs were a tailwind of $25,000,000 primarily as a result of lower operating costs. Now turn to Slide nine, and let's focus on our Park segment performance. Adjusted EBITDA of $60,000,000 increased 25% compared to the first quarter last year. Volume was a tailwind of $4,000,000 as higher shipments in packaging were partially offset by lower shipments in automotive and specialties.

Jack Guo
Jack Guo
SVP & CFO at Constellium

Packaging shipments increased 9% in the quarter versus last year as demand remained healthy in both North America and Europe. In North America, we also benefited at Muscle Shoals from improved operational performance in the quarter this year and the non repeat of the weather event from last year. Automotive shipments decreased 15% in the quarter with weakness in both North America and Europe. Price and mix was a tailwind of $9,000,000 mainly as a result of improved pricing in the quarter. Costs were a tailwind of $2,000,000 as a result of lower operating costs and more favorable metal costs in Neuprozak, mostly offset by unfavorable metal costs in Muscle Shoals given tighter scrap spreads in North America.

Jack Guo
Jack Guo
SVP & CFO at Constellium

FX and other was a headwind of $3,000,000 in the quarter. Now turn to Slide 10. Let's focus on the AS and I segment. Adjusted EBITDA of $16,000,000 decreased 50% compared to the first quarter of last year. Volume was a $12,000,000 headwind as a result of lower shipments in automotive and industry Schuhter products.

Jack Guo
Jack Guo
SVP & CFO at Constellium

Automotive shipments were down 14% in the quarter with weakness in both North America and Europe. Industry shipments were down 4% in the quarter versus last year as weakness persisted in Europe. Industry shipments were also impacted at LA as a result of the flood from last year. Price and mix was a $2,000,000 headwind in the quarter, while costs were a headwind of $1,000,000 It is not on the slide here, but our holdings and corporate expense was $11,000,000 in the quarter and within our expectation. Holdings and corporate expense this quarter was up $4,000,000 from last year, mainly due to additional IT spending with the upgrade of our ERP system, as we previously discussed, and some minor one off items.

Jack Guo
Jack Guo
SVP & CFO at Constellium

As we said last quarter, we expect holdings and corporate expense to run at approximately $40,000,000 in 2025. It is also not on the slide here, but I wanted to summarize the current cost environment we're facing. As you know, we operate a pass through business model, so we're down materially exposed to changes in the market price of aluminum, our largest cost input. Other metal costs, we experienced a dramatic tightening of scrap spreads in North America in 2024, which continued as we started the year this year. Scrap spreads in the spot market did improve modestly by the end of the quarter, though our scrap needs through the first half of this year have been contracted at comparatively higher scrap spread levels.

Jack Guo
Jack Guo
SVP & CFO at Constellium

We expect scrap metal costs to remain a headwind for the remainder of the year relative to historical levels, though progressively to a lesser extent. For energy, our 2025 costs are moderately more favorable compared to 2024, although energy prices remain above historical averages. Other inflationary pressures have eased to more normal levels. And as we said last quarter, given the weakness we're seeing in several of our markets, we have accelerated our Vision '25 cost improvement program with measures such as improving operational efficiency, reducing headcounts and other labor costs, reducing nonmetal procurement spending, optimizing maintenance costs by minimizing the use of outside contractors and cost reduction efforts across many other categories. We have demonstrated strong cost performance in the past years, and we're confident in our ability to rightsize our cost structure for the current demand environment.

Jack Guo
Jack Guo
SVP & CFO at Constellium

You see some of the benefits in our first quarter results, and the run rate benefit should be even more. Now let's turn to Slide 11 and discuss our free cash flow. Free cash flow was negative $3,000,000 in the first quarter and in line with our expectations, though this includes a negative $27,000,000 impact of Vale as the business continued to recover from the flood, including capital expenditures and the need to rebuild some working capital. This also excludes $2,000,000 of cash we received from the collection of deferred purchase price receivables, which is a result of our conversion from IFRS to U. S.

Jack Guo
Jack Guo
SVP & CFO at Constellium

GAAP and the corresponding accounting treatment of some of our factoring arrangements. As we mentioned last quarter, we amended these arrangements earlier this quarter, and all cash received under the arrangements since then are recorded in operating cash flows. Free cash flow, excluding the impact of LA and including the cash received for collection of deferred purchase price receivables, would have been positive $26,000,000 in the first quarter, which benefited from the actions we took in the latter part of last year to reduce working capital in this current demand environment. Looking at 2025, we expect to generate free cash flow in excess of $120,000,000 for the full year, is unchanged from our prior guidance. Given the uncertainty with the overall environment, we're looking at modestly reducing our CapEx this year by about 5% to 10% to stay prudent and stay ahead.

Jack Guo
Jack Guo
SVP & CFO at Constellium

For the other cash flow items, we continue to expect them to be at around the same levels as per the previous guidance. As Jean Marc mentioned previously, we continued our share buyback activities in the quarter. During the quarter, we repurchased 1,400,000.0 shares for $50,000,000 We have approximately $2.00 $6,000,000 remaining on our existing share repurchase program, and we intend to use a large portion of the free cash flow generated this year for the program. Now let's turn to Slide 12 and discuss our balance sheet and liquidity position. At the end of the first quarter, our net debt of $1,800,000,000 was up $50,000,000 compared to the end of twenty twenty four, with the largest driver being the translation impact from the weaker U.

Jack Guo
Jack Guo
SVP & CFO at Constellium

S. Dollar at the end of the quarter. Our leverage was 3.3x at the end of the quarter or up 0.2x versus the end of twenty twenty four. As Jean Marc mentioned previously, we expect this to trend down by the end of the year. We're committed to bringing our leverage back down into our target leverage range of one half to two two and a half times and maintaining this range over time.

Jack Guo
Jack Guo
SVP & CFO at Constellium

As you can see our debt summary, we have no bond maturities until 2028, and our liquidity increased by $73,000,000 from the end of twenty twenty four and remains strong at $800,000,000 as of the end of the first quarter. With that, I'll now hand the call back to Jean Marc.

Jean-Marc Germain
Jean-Marc Germain
Chief Executive Officer at Constellium

Thank you, Jack. Let's turn to Slide 14 and discuss our current end market outlook. The majority of our portfolio today serving end markets benefiting from durable, sustainability driven secular growth, in which aluminum, a light and infinitely recyclable material, plays a critical role. However, many of these markets continue to face demand headwinds today and also now facing uncertainty given the tariff situation. Turning first to the aerospace market.

Jean-Marc Germain
Jean-Marc Germain
Chief Executive Officer at Constellium

Commercial aircraft backlogs are robust today and continue to grow. Major aero OEMs remain focused on increasing build rates for both narrow and wide body aircraft, though supply chain challenges continue to slow deliveries. As a result, aerospace supply chains need to adjust to lower than expected build rates, which is causing a shift in demand to the right for some of our products. Despite the slowdown in the near term, demand has stabilized for the most part, and we remain confident that long term fundamentals driving aerospace demand remain intact, including growing passenger traffic and greater demand for new, more fuel efficient aircraft. Demand remains stable in the business and regional jet market and healthy for space and military aircraft.

Jean-Marc Germain
Jean-Marc Germain
Chief Executive Officer at Constellium

Turning now to packaging. Demand remains healthy in both North America and Europe. The long term outlook for this end market continues to be favorable as evidenced by the growing consumer preference for the sustainable aluminum beverage can, capacity growth plans from can makers in both regions and the greenfield investments ongoing here in North America. Longer term, we continue to expect packaging markets to grow low to mid single digits in both North America and Europe. Let's turn now to automotive.

Jean-Marc Germain
Jean-Marc Germain
Chief Executive Officer at Constellium

Automotive OEM production of light vehicles in Europe remains well below pre COVID levels and is still below pre COVID levels in North America as well. Demand in North America has continued to soften in the near term and is expected to feel the impact of the current Section two thirty two auto tariffs. Demand in Europe remains weak, particularly in the luxury and premium vehicle and electric segments where we have greater exposure. Automotive production in Europe is also expected to feel the impact of the current Section two thirty two auto tariffs given the amount of vehicles The U. S.

Jean-Marc Germain
Jean-Marc Germain
Chief Executive Officer at Constellium

Imports from Europe. In the long term, we believe electric and hybrid vehicles will continue to grow, but at a lower rate than previously expected. Sustainability trends such as light weighting and increased fuel efficiency will continue to drive demand for aluminum products. As a result, we remain positive in this market over the longer term in both regions despite the weakness we are seeing today. As you can see on the page, these three core end markets represent over 80% of our last twelve months revenue, turning lastly to other specialties.

Jean-Marc Germain
Jean-Marc Germain
Chief Executive Officer at Constellium

In North America, demand appears to have stabilized, albeit at low levels, and demand remains weak in Europe. We have experienced weakness across most specialty markets for more than two years now, though we are beginning to see some green shoots in certain TID markets in North America. We also believe TID markets in North America provide us with some opportunities today, given the current tariffs make imports less competitive compared to domestic production. As a reminder, these specialties markets are typically dependent upon the health of the industrial economies in each region, including drivers like the interest rate environment, industrial production levels, and consumer spending patterns. We continue to work hard to adjust our cost structure to the current demand environment, which will put the businesses in an even better position when the industrial economies do recover.

Jean-Marc Germain
Jean-Marc Germain
Chief Executive Officer at Constellium

To conclude on the end markets, we like the fundamentals in each of the markets we serve, and we strongly believe that the diversification of our end markets is an asset for the company in any environment and that the current conditions will pass. Turning lastly to Slide 16, we detail our key messages and financial guidance. Our team delivered solid results in the first quarter this year despite continued demand weakness across most of our end markets and the lingering financial impact of the valley flood. We returned $15,000,000 to shareholders in the quarter with the repurchase of 1,400,000.0 shares. While tariffs are creating broader macro uncertainty and impacting end markets like automotive, we are proactively managing our business to the current environment.

Jean-Marc Germain
Jean-Marc Germain
Chief Executive Officer at Constellium

We remain focused on strong cost control, free cash flow generation and commercial and capital discipline. Based on our current outlook, including the current end market conditions I just described and assuming a relatively stable macro environment, we are maintaining our guidance for 2025. We are targeting adjusted EBITDA, excluding the noncash impact of metal price lag, in the range of $600,000,000 to $630,000,000 and free cash flow in excess of $120,000,000 I also want to reiterate our long term targets of adjusted EBITDA, excluding the noncash impact of metal price lag of $900,000,000 and free cash flow of $300,000,000 in 2028. To conclude, while we continue to face challenging conditions in most of our markets today, we believe that this will pass, and I remain very excited about our future and the ability to seize the many opportunities in front of us, which we have demonstrated in the past. We're extremely well positioned for long term success and remain focused on executing our strategy and shareholder value creation.

Jean-Marc Germain
Jean-Marc Germain
Chief Executive Officer at Constellium

With that, Adam, we will now open the Q and A session, please.

Operator

And our first question comes from Katja Jantjic from BMO Capital Markets. Katja, your line is open. Please go ahead.

Katja Jancic
Katja Jancic
Analyst at BMO Capital Markets

Hi, thank you for taking my questions. Maybe starting off, Jean Marc, you mentioned that first quarter was ahead of expectations. Can you talk a bit more about what drove that?

Jean-Marc Germain
Jean-Marc Germain
Chief Executive Officer at Constellium

Yes. Good morning, Kat here. Thanks for the question. So I think we have seen a good performance at our Muscle Shoals plant, and we continue to make progress. So that has helped in the first quarter, definitely.

Jean-Marc Germain
Jean-Marc Germain
Chief Executive Officer at Constellium

The other big element I would single out is our progress on Vision 25. As we mentioned, we accelerated in the current and we started last year given the very challenging year we experienced last year. We accelerated our cost reduction program and the operating efficiencies program. And Vision 25 is shaping out to be a big success for us this year. So these two elements, I think, are the main drivers of our performance.

Jean-Marc Germain
Jean-Marc Germain
Chief Executive Officer at Constellium

And Jack wants to add a couple of comments here.

Jack Guo
Jack Guo
SVP & CFO at Constellium

Yes. Thank you, Jean Marc, and thank you, Katya, for the question. So the only other thing I would add is we have done a bit better in the A and T business unit. And if you recall, we talked about this last year, the weakness in the demanding aerospace has caused us to kind of push some of the higher margin volumes to the right. And we said that that's not going away.

Jack Guo
Jack Guo
SVP & CFO at Constellium

It's just the timing, and now we're seeing some of the benefits, and we expect to see that during throughout the rest of the year. And also, the business unit has done, along with everybody else, has done a great job in terms of cost control, as Jean Marc mentioned.

Katja Jancic
Katja Jancic
Analyst at BMO Capital Markets

Maybe just as a follow-up. Jack, you said the on the aerospace side, does that mean that the inventory issue is behind?

Jean-Marc Germain
Jean-Marc Germain
Chief Executive Officer at Constellium

No. It's not behind. I mean, our own inventories are well in control, but the supply chain is still struggling to ramp up. You also saw the news that the Boeing deliveries in China are suspended or halted. I don't know exactly how to describe it.

Jean-Marc Germain
Jean-Marc Germain
Chief Executive Officer at Constellium

So that's not a good news for for the supply chain. So I think we are going to go through another year of difficulties in the ramp up of supply chain. And that is included.

Katja Jancic
Katja Jancic
Analyst at BMO Capital Markets

Okay. Thank you. I'll call back into the queue.

Jean-Marc Germain
Jean-Marc Germain
Chief Executive Officer at Constellium

Yep.

Operator

The next question comes from Karim Blanchard from Deutsche Bank. Karim, your line is open. Please go ahead.

Corinne Blanchard
Corinne Blanchard
Analyst at Deutsche Bank

Hey, good morning, everyone. Congratulations on the strong quarter. Maybe to come back on the end market question. Could you share so the aerospace was probably stronger than most people expected for 1Q and probably with a mix of defense and military. Is that trend to be expected to continue into 2Q and 3Q?

Corinne Blanchard
Corinne Blanchard
Analyst at Deutsche Bank

And then the second question would be on the auto impact and tariff and kind of where do you think things will shape and shake out for the second half of the year?

Jean-Marc Germain
Jean-Marc Germain
Chief Executive Officer at Constellium

Morning, Corine, and thanks for your kind words. So aerospace, we think it's gonna be choppy, continue to be choppy this year. But we do believe that the progress we've made is sustainable, and we do believe that our focus on high value added products and those markets that are shining a bit more is paying off, and we expect that to continue throughout the year. Exactly how it plays out by quarter is difficult to tell, but I think we've got a good outlook for the full year. And in terms of auto, it is big mystery.

Jean-Marc Germain
Jean-Marc Germain
Chief Executive Officer at Constellium

We are seeing the reduction in the outlook. S and P recently downgraded their provisions for the market numbers for in both Europe and The U. S. We had been conservative. We thought going into the year and embedded into our guidance compared to the forecasts at the time.

Jean-Marc Germain
Jean-Marc Germain
Chief Executive Officer at Constellium

So we're seeing the forecast converging with our own expectations. And we believe that, you know, the tariffs are certainly creating more uncertainty here in North America. But overall, given the platforms we are on, the launches that we are on, we believe we absent a major catastrophe in the market tanking to another 20% down compared to current expectations, I think we are reasonably safe for this year. It's not going to be a pleasant year as we can see and especially in the AS and I segment, but I think we are we're controlling what we can control and our guidance is reflecting this.

Katja Jancic
Katja Jancic
Analyst at BMO Capital Markets

Thank you. And then maybe just again on the auto and tariff. And then from the tariffs, how much cost impact you will get? Because I think I saw on one of your slides, you had about $2,000,000 impact in 1Q. And then from the rest of the year, we can expect another $20,000,000 So is there like a specific cadence we should be thinking about between the quarter?

Katja Jancic
Katja Jancic
Analyst at BMO Capital Markets

Or is that more like an even cost to add?

Jack Guo
Jack Guo
SVP & CFO at Constellium

Yes. Corinne, so it's related to the cross border shipments, right? So and there is a little seasonality, but assume it to be fairly even. And you're right, the gross impact before mitigation, we're assuming about $20,000,000 headwind.

Operator

The next question comes from Bill Peterson from JPMorgan. Bill, please go ahead.

Bill Peterson
Bill Peterson
Analyst at JPMorgan Chase

Yes. Hi, good morning, Jack and John, Mark. I appreciate the opportunity to ask questions. So maybe following up on the tariff one. So I think the last quarter you talked about the overall environment presenting opportunities for the team and now you're talking about opportunities and costs.

Bill Peterson
Bill Peterson
Analyst at JPMorgan Chase

So I'm reading this as somewhat net neutral overall, but maybe unpacking this a bit further. So you have potential the February price hikes, maybe you can elaborate on what percentage of the business, I think it's mostly flat rolled, as you mentioned, that you can what the expected uplift to EBITDA, Maybe a little more detail on how you can maybe limit the impacts of this Canadian extruding business? And just trying to get a sense for maybe a little bit more detail on the puts and takes and maybe how to think about it from an overall perspective as you see it today, realizing it's a fluid situation?

Jean-Marc Germain
Jean-Marc Germain
Chief Executive Officer at Constellium

Yes. Good morning, Bill, and thank you for this difficult question. So I think compared to what we are describing in February, we're still in the same place that we believe, overall, the tariffs that we're seeing are presenting a net opportunity for us. We wanted this time to give you a bit more context about specifically the extrusions that we are importing from Canada to make auto parts in The US. And that is a flow that presents a substantial headwind to us with $20,000,000 worth of of costs, additional cost to us.

Jean-Marc Germain
Jean-Marc Germain
Chief Executive Officer at Constellium

Now to mitigate this, before I go into the other positive benefits of the of the tariffs, right, to mitigate this, we're working very hard with our customers on pass throughs. Ultimately, those tariffs will end up being reflected in the sticker price. And we have some encouraging discussions, and we even have one customer at this stage that has agreed to a full pass through for these tariffs. So that 20,000,000 will dwindle as we are successful in in passing through, you know, we hope all of it, most of it, and at the very least, some of it. At the same time, we are going to look at the resourcing from other sources that are not tariff impacted.

Jean-Marc Germain
Jean-Marc Germain
Chief Executive Officer at Constellium

And then obviously, working very diligently on our cost structure, on other pockets of our cost structure to offset this. Then on the metal side, as you know, the scrap that we're using, the the absolute benefit we get from using scrap is getting bigger with the imposition on the two, three, two tariffs on aluminum. So that creates an opportunity for us and to the extent that our plants are running well, which they are, if we recycle more metal, we even compound this benefit by, you know, we we get access to cheaper scrap related to prime and we make more of it. So that's an important offset to our our cost side. And then finally, when the whole point of tariffs is to make the domestic industry more competitive.

Jean-Marc Germain
Jean-Marc Germain
Chief Executive Officer at Constellium

And as we have said numerous times, we are local for local. Even we and and as we do that, we become more competitive and there is more opportunity for us to expand our margins. Now in addition, then one can say, but then what happens if there is a substantial reduction in demand for the end product because tariffs have made the products more expensive? And that's especially true for automotive where we talk about what happens if, you know, the price of cars goes up by 25%. Now in that case, something that is important to understand is that in our case, Constellium, the vast majority of what we sell is made in The US and delivered to plants that are making cars in The US.

Jean-Marc Germain
Jean-Marc Germain
Chief Executive Officer at Constellium

And as a consequence, if the global if the toll market for cars goes down, it is fair because of tariffs. It is fair to say that the domestic production will be less impacted and hopefully, could even benefit from it. And that's where it becomes very difficult to ascertain what the indirect, you know, two two or three sequences down the road are for us. But we believe we're in a decent position to offset the direct impact of the tariff, benefit on scrap, and, you know, margin expansion for our production here in The US. And potentially, given our customer mix, we may be less exposed than the overall markets.

Bill Peterson
Bill Peterson
Analyst at JPMorgan Chase

Yeah. Thanks for that. Maybe I can hit on one of the points you're talking about on scrap because I think we exited last year and you're talking about maybe a 15,000,000 to $20,000,000 per quarter impact. But I think it was relatively tight exiting last year. Maybe if you think about UBC to the Midwest transaction price, close to 80% exit rate.

Bill Peterson
Bill Peterson
Analyst at JPMorgan Chase

But I think we're now closer to 70%, which I think was similar to around this time last year. So I guess with that in mind, how should we think about well, first of do you have any updated thoughts on how we should think about scrap scrubs for this year? And then assuming it stays a bit wider like we're seeing now, what would be the maybe the impact? I presume it would be either at the low end of the 15 to $20,000,000 or maybe even below that.

Jean-Marc Germain
Jean-Marc Germain
Chief Executive Officer at Constellium

So think of the fact that we buy our scrap under annual, quarterly, and spot market. So we never reflect the spot price. You you will never see a direct impact between spot price and and our scrap results. Right? So number one.

Jean-Marc Germain
Jean-Marc Germain
Chief Executive Officer at Constellium

So we smooth the peaks and valleys. And what happened last year is we still benefited from aluminum. We had contracted scrap. We had contracted at a very good spreads in '23, in '24, but the new scrap we are contracting was extremely expensive. Now this year, we're seeing a reversal in the dynamics.

Jean-Marc Germain
Jean-Marc Germain
Chief Executive Officer at Constellium

Scraps are becoming cheaper, but we also have some scrap that we bought at a higher price and especially in the first quarter. So I think some of some of that, you know, mechanics, I don't wanna go into too much detail, but what we'll say saying is that the scrap spreads today are better, and this is helping us. This is a positive for us, but it is included in our guidance.

Bill Peterson
Bill Peterson
Analyst at JPMorgan Chase

Okay. That's that's helpful. And and then if I can switch to, you know, the packaging, I guess, the parts segment more broadly. You called out the improved shipments and mix and so forth and calling out Muscle Shoals improvement in particular. I guess on the pricing and mix, can you understand the uplift?

Bill Peterson
Bill Peterson
Analyst at JPMorgan Chase

I thought that maybe ABS EBITDA margins were actually better than packaging or maybe the mix is more of a statement especially, I'm not sure. And then on the Muscle Shoals performance, I guess, how should we think about the shipment uplift and cost performance in the second quarter and beyond now that it seems to be operating well? So I think you're able to participate in this sort of improved demand environment, maybe perhaps also benefiting from fewer imports as a result of tariffs as well.

Jack Guo
Jack Guo
SVP & CFO at Constellium

Yeah, Bill. So I'll take the first part of your question, and that's related to price and mix for PARP and the good guy there. That's mostly related to kind of micro mix within packaging. So we saw more kind of end stock, if you will, which carry a higher pricing.

Jean-Marc Germain
Jean-Marc Germain
Chief Executive Officer at Constellium

Yep. Now at the same time, automotive does have a higher margin, and automotive is not as good this year as it was last year. So you got all kinds of effects here. Going forward, we think the weakness in automotive is going to continue. I mean, that's part of our expectations.

Jean-Marc Germain
Jean-Marc Germain
Chief Executive Officer at Constellium

It's put it this way, but that does create an opportunity for us to sell more can sheet. There is demand for more can sheet, and we are very keen to support our customers in any way we can. I think that opportunity will continue to be here. As I said, we turned the corner in socials. Production is much better and healthier and more stable than it ever was.

Jean-Marc Germain
Jean-Marc Germain
Chief Executive Officer at Constellium

And I think that creates opportunities for us going forward.

Bill Peterson
Bill Peterson
Analyst at JPMorgan Chase

Thanks, Jean Marc and Jack.

Jean-Marc Germain
Jean-Marc Germain
Chief Executive Officer at Constellium

Thank you, Bill. Thank you,

Operator

And the next question comes from Josh Sullivan from The Benchmark Company. Josh, please go ahead. Your line is open.

Josh Sullivan
MD & Senior Equity Research Analyst at The Benchmark Company LLC

Hey, good morning.

Jean-Marc Germain
Jean-Marc Germain
Chief Executive Officer at Constellium

Good morning, Josh. Hi, Josh.

Josh Sullivan
MD & Senior Equity Research Analyst at The Benchmark Company LLC

If you're thinking about another year of aerospace supply chain difficulties, what was the incremental on that destock cycle from last quarter? If you're thinking about a year from today, where were your thoughts last quarter? Just trying to think of the incremental sequentially on that year time line.

Jean-Marc Germain
Jean-Marc Germain
Chief Executive Officer at Constellium

So I'll try to answer what I understand of your question. If not understanding it well, just tell me. We were thinking that it was going to be yet another year of challenges in the supply chain on the base of our discussion with our customers. So things have not fundamentally changed because between what we're thinking in November, December of last year and now. Maybe the exact shape of it is is proving to be a bit different, but the challenges are are definitely there.

Jean-Marc Germain
Jean-Marc Germain
Chief Executive Officer at Constellium

And you see it, I mean, our our shipments are down year on year compared to the first quarter of last year in aerospace. But that is what we're expecting.

Jack Guo
Jack Guo
SVP & CFO at Constellium

Yes. And sequentially, I mean, it's relatively flat to the fourth quarter of last year and the third quarter of last year. So it's weak, but quite stable, with a better mix.

Josh Sullivan
MD & Senior Equity Research Analyst at The Benchmark Company LLC

Okay. And how would you be impacted if Airbus chooses to increase production at the

Jean-Marc Germain
Jean-Marc Germain
Chief Executive Officer at Constellium

Did we answer your question, John?

Josh Sullivan
MD & Senior Equity Research Analyst at The Benchmark Company LLC

Yes. No, mean, more or less, yes. But also, if Airbus chooses to increase production at the Alabama facility, how how would you be impacted by that?

Jean-Marc Germain
Jean-Marc Germain
Chief Executive Officer at Constellium

Well, we would get more volumes from them. We we've got a our contract with them is, you know, requirements driven. So the more they produce, the better it is for us. Now how that happens depends on whether the the inventories are in the supply chain and where it's at. And as you know, there's a lag between, you know, six months to two years roughly depending on the parts.

Jean-Marc Germain
Jean-Marc Germain
Chief Executive Officer at Constellium

But this is this would be a net positive for us. Yes.

Josh Sullivan
MD & Senior Equity Research Analyst at The Benchmark Company LLC

Okay. And then and then just one last one. You know, what are you seeing as far as European demand and TID for defense applications or indications for longer term order flow just as the continent looks to build out, you know, more of an internal defense industrial base?

Jean-Marc Germain
Jean-Marc Germain
Chief Executive Officer at Constellium

Yeah. So we see some good signs today. It's actually causing us to increase our inventories in the valley, for instance, as we are restarting our operations because there's a lot of demand for tanks and other vehicles. And then longer term, I think it's all a matter of how serious and committed the Europeans will be in in implementing what they decided, which is I think it's €800,000,000,000 of additional spending in in defense. Right?

Jean-Marc Germain
Jean-Marc Germain
Chief Executive Officer at Constellium

So if they do that, that's definitely a a good thing for us. But as we all know between intentions and reality, there can be a gap and the gap can be just time or it can be a gap in terms of actually does it get implemented. So we'll we'll have to see. But in all the discussions we have with our customers in defense air space in Europe, there is everybody's ramping up and trying to get ready for substantially higher levels of production and so are we.

Josh Sullivan
MD & Senior Equity Research Analyst at The Benchmark Company LLC

Great. Thank you for the time.

Jean-Marc Germain
Jean-Marc Germain
Chief Executive Officer at Constellium

Thank you, Josh.

Operator

As we have no further questions, I'll hand the call back to Jean Marc Germain for some closing comments.

Jean-Marc Germain
Jean-Marc Germain
Chief Executive Officer at Constellium

Thank you, Adam. Well, thank you, everybody, for your participation today. As you can see, we remain very focused in these uncertain and turbulent times, Very focused on controlling what we can control, making sure we seize every opportunity that is ahead of us, and making sure we build a company that's gonna emerge stronger after these vicissitudes in the market's past. Thank you very much, and I look forward to updating you on our progress in a few months.

Operator

This concludes today's call. Thank you very much for your attendance. You may now disconnect your lines.

Executives
    • Jason Hershiser
      Jason Hershiser
      Director of Investor Relations
    • Jean-Marc Germain
      Jean-Marc Germain
      Chief Executive Officer
    • Jack Guo
      Jack Guo
      SVP & CFO
Analysts
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