Constellation Brands Q4 2025 Earnings Report

Constellation Brands EPS Results

• Actual EPS: $2.63
• Consensus EPS: $2.28
• Beat/Miss: Beat by +$0.35
• One Year Ago EPS: $2.26

Constellation Brands Revenue Results

• Actual Revenue: $2.13 billion
• Expected Revenue: $2.14 billion
• Beat/Miss: Missed by -$9.75 million
• YoY Revenue Growth: +1.20%

Constellation Brands Announcement Details

• Quarter: Q4 2025
• Date: 4/9/2025
• Time: After Market Closes
• Conference Call Date: Thursday, April 10, 2025
• Conference Call Time: 10:30AM ET

Constellation Brands (NYSE:STZ), together with its subsidiaries, produces, imports, markets, and sells beer, wine, and spirits in the United States, Canada, Mexico, New Zealand, and Italy. The company provides beer primarily under the Corona Extra, Corona Familiar, Corona Hard Seltzer, Corona Light, Corona Non-Alcoholic, Corona Premier, Corona Refresca, Modelo Especial, Modelo Chelada, Modelo Negra, Modelo Oro, Victoria, Vicky Chamoy, and Pacifico brands. It also offers wine under the Cook's California Champagne, Kim Crawford, Meiomi, Mount Veeder, Ruffino, SIMI, My Favorite Neighbor, Robert Mondavi Winery, Schrader, and The Prisoner Wine Company brands; and spirits under the Casa Noble, Copper & Kings, High West, Mi CAMPO, Nelson's Green Brier, and SVEDKA brands. The company provides its products to wholesale distributors, retailers, on-premise locations, and state alcohol beverage control agencies. Constellation Brands, Inc. was founded in 1945 and is headquartered in Victor, New York.

Constellation Brands Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Presentation

[Operator]

Greetings and welcome to the Constellation Brands Q4 Fiscal Year twenty twenty five Earnings Call. At this time, participants are in a listen only mode. A question and answer session will follow the formal presentation. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It's now my pleasure to turn the call over to your host, Joseph Suarez, Vice President, Investor Relations.

[Operator]

Please go ahead, sir.

[Joseph Suarez, Senior VP of Investor Relations at Constellation Brands]

Thank you, Kevin. Good morning all and welcome to Constellation Brands Q4 and full year fiscal twenty twenty five conference call. I'm here this morning with Bill Newlands, our CEO and Garth Hankinson, our CFO. We trust that you have the opportunity to review the news release, CEO and CFO commentary and accompanying slides made available yesterday evening in the Investors section of our company's website, www.cbrands.com. As we have received a couple of questions regarding certain figures contained in our slides, please note that we expect our beer net sales growth rate for fiscal twenty twenty six to be between 0% to 3% and for fiscal twenty twenty seven and 2028 to be 2% to 4%.

[Joseph Suarez, Senior VP of Investor Relations at Constellation Brands]

And our operating income growth rate for fiscal twenty twenty six is expected to be between 0% to 2% and for fiscal twenty twenty seven to 2028 we expect operating margins to be approximately 39% to 40%. On that note, as a reminder, reconciliations between the most directly comparable GAAP measures and non GAAP financial measures discussed on this call are included in the news release and website. And we encourage you to also refer to the news release and Constellation's SEC filings for risk factors that may impact forward looking statements made on this call. Before turning the call over to Bill and Garth, please keep in mind that as usual answers provided today will be referencing comparable results unless otherwise specified and that any references to expectations for fiscal twenty twenty six to fiscal twenty twenty eight reflect the anticipated impact of the tariffs announced by the U. S.

[Joseph Suarez, Senior VP of Investor Relations at Constellation Brands]

Government on April 2 and the Canadian government on March four of this year inclusive of the delay in the effectiveness of certain tariffs announced by the U. S. Government yesterday which will particularly impact the wine spirits business. Lastly, in line with prior quarters, I would ask that you limit yourselves to one question per person, which will help us to end our call on time. Thanks in advance.

[Joseph Suarez, Senior VP of Investor Relations at Constellation Brands]

And now here is Bill.

[Bill Newlands, CEO at Constellation Brands]

Thanks, Joe, and welcome everyone to our Q4 and full year fiscal '20 '20 '5 call. As usual, I will outline a few overarching highlights, but we will then move immediately to Q and A as our broader commentary was provided to you yesterday. So let's get going. In a tough socioeconomic environment, we are taking decisive actions designed to continue to support our industry leading beer business, reset our cost base and redefine our portfolio. More specifically, first, in fiscal twenty twenty five, despite a softer consumer demand backdrop, largely driven by what we believe to be non structural socioeconomic factors, we continue to deliver Enterprise net sales growth, realize substantial comparable operating margin improvement and achieve double digit comparable EPS growth.

[Bill Newlands, CEO at Constellation Brands]

Second, looking ahead, while we expect these non structural socioeconomic factors affecting consumer demand to gradually stabilize and subside, we remain focused on driving distribution gains, on launching disciplined innovation and on deploying incremental marketing investments to support the growth of our beer business, all while continuing to deliver best in class operating margins. Third, in addition, we expect significant improvements in the performance of our Wine and Spirits business beyond fiscal twenty twenty six, following the anticipated closing of the 2025 wine divestitures transaction that is primarily centered around the sale of the remaining mainstream wine brands in that portfolio as well as the implementation of associated restructuring actions expected to yield over $200,000,000 in net annualized cost savings across the enterprise by fiscal twenty twenty eight. Fourth, against that backdrop, we are targeting to deliver approximately $9,000,000,000 in operating cash flow from fiscal twenty twenty six to 2028 and approximately $6,000,000,000 in free cash flow as we continue to invest primarily in the modular development of our third brewery in Veracruz and modular additions at our existing facilities in Mexico. And fifth, in line with this strong cash flow generation and having achieved our comparable net leverage ratio target in fiscal twenty twenty five, we remain committed to a disciplined and balanced capital deployment framework, including our 30% dividend payout ratio and executing share repurchases against our new three year four billion dollars authorization.

[Bill Newlands, CEO at Constellation Brands]

And with that, Garth and I will be happy to take your questions.

[Operator]

Thank you. We'll now be conducting a question and answer session. Our first question is coming from Lauren Lieberman from Barclays. Your line is now live.

[Lauren Lieberman, Managing Director at Barclays]

Hi, great. Good morning and thanks a lot for the question. I wanted to know if you could comment more specifically on tariffs. Are is the beer business currently USMCA certified, so we can get some visibility on what is baked in, in terms of tariffs with regard to Mexico? And also what else is baked in, in terms of aluminum cans and so on, so more visibility there would be really helpful.

[Lauren Lieberman, Managing Director at Barclays]

And then was also just curious on the longer term forecast around beer and the notion of socioeconomic non structural dynamics. But how are you thinking about beer industry growth over this projection timeline? Thanks.

[Bill Newlands, CEO at Constellation Brands]

Sure. Why don't I start with the first part of the question. We have been USMCA compliant since it was implemented several years ago and remain USMCA compliant today.

[Garth Hankinson, Executive VP & CFO at Constellation Brands]

In addition to that, Lauren,

[Garth Hankinson, Executive VP & CFO at Constellation Brands]

the guidance that we provided does include the impact for all tariffs announced by the U. S. Government on April 2 and by the Canadian government on March 4. For our beer business, this includes the impact on our aluminum cans. And for our wine business, this includes the impact for our brands coming out of New Zealand and Italy into The U.

[Garth Hankinson, Executive VP & CFO at Constellation Brands]

S. And for our brands from The U. S. Into Canada.

[Bill Newlands, CEO at Constellation Brands]

Relative to the longer range perspective on beer, there's been obviously a lot of what we see as near term headwinds. But we think that those over time, particularly as the Hispanic consumer who's been particularly challenged gets back to more sort of normal operating procedure.

[Operator]

Thank you. Next question is coming from Nik Modi from RBC Capital Markets. Your line is now live.

[Nik Modi, Managing Director at RBC Capital Markets]

Thank you. Good morning, everyone. Bill, maybe if I could just kind of piggyback off Lauren's question on the long term beer outlook. I get the fact that things are really kind of choppy right now, but the cut in the guide just kind over the next couple of years seemed a bit extreme relative to what you guys have been doing, even with the slowing down that we've been seeing, that I think we can all agree some of it is very temporary. So when I speak to the trade, it's pretty clear nothing has really changed on an underlying basis with the brands, momentum, kind of how retailers are looking to space your portfolio in a bigger sense, greater manner.

[Nik Modi, Managing Director at RBC Capital Markets]

So just wanted to kind of get your philosophy on the range of being down this up 2% to four which is versus the seven to nine and kind of how you're thinking about that? I mean, you just kind of assuming things just stay the way they are and if there's upside great? So any context on that would be really, really helpful.

[Bill Newlands, CEO at Constellation Brands]

Sure. Well, let's start with the most important thing, Nick. And today is Nick's birthday. So happy birthday, Nick. Now getting on to the main point.

[Bill Newlands, CEO at Constellation Brands]

The most important thing is as we look at it relative to the medium term is our brand health. And fortunately, all of our brand health metrics remain extremely strong. We're very focused on what we can control and that's distribution, it's focused innovation, it's making sure that our execution is top notch. You noted, we gained over 10% in share of space in the resets that occurred last year. So that remains a positive factor.

[Bill Newlands, CEO at Constellation Brands]

It's very difficult to know exactly how long some of these socioeconomic issues are going to continue. Certainly, know that the Hispanic consumer is particularly concerned about a number of issues. And we would certainly expect some improvement as those consumers become more comfortable and less concerned about the many issues that follow them. We don't have an exact answer to when that is going to moderate. And I think it's important to note that the guidance that we have provided reflects the fact that there were a lot of unknowns today, including things like tariffs, but also the impact that we're seeing with the Hispanic consumer.

[Bill Newlands, CEO at Constellation Brands]

Until we get a more definitive answer to some of those questions, it's a tough answer to give. Fortunately, that consumer, the Hispanic consumer continues to show extraordinarily loyalty to our brands. And over the long term, that will moderate and continue to allow us to gain share as we have for the last several years.

[Garth Hankinson, Executive VP & CFO at Constellation Brands]

Nick, let me just add a couple of the actual brand health stats that Bill referenced. We've actually seen some pretty significant increases in aided awareness and consideration for Modelo, Corona and Pacifico, which is in line with what we would expect from the media investment that we put in place this last year. All brands are holding steady on measures of popularity across all adults, Hispanic and Gen Z. Pacifico is up statistically significantly in California and all our brands are holding steady on the other metrics that we track including is this a brand I love, is it a brand everyone likes, is it a good value, is it a brand with heritage and net favorability.

[Operator]

Thank you. Next question is coming from Bonnie Herzog from Goldman Sachs. Your line is now live.

[Bonnie Herzog, Managing Director at Goldman Sachs]

All right. Thank you. Good morning. I just wanted to ask a quick follow-up on in the context of your cut to your medium term algo, what are you assuming for the beer category growth or I guess declines over the next few years? And then I wanted to ask about margins, beer margins.

[Bonnie Herzog, Managing Director at Goldman Sachs]

Could you maybe walk through the different puts and takes that are going to allow you to deliver your best in class beer margins of 39 to 40% over the next few years despite, I guess, a considerable expected slowdown in volume and some tariff risk. I mean you mentioned some cost cutting. So could you give us some more color on that and possibly quantify? Thank you.

[Bill Newlands, CEO at Constellation Brands]

I think slide 18 is going to help you on some of those broad answers. But our view is over the course of the medium term, the beer industry overall will likely go back to what it has done over the last several years, which is roughly flat to down 2%, somewhere in that range. And as we've said on prior calls, we've seen a significant delta between whatever the beer industry is and our performance against it, where we have gained significant share. We expect that that overall approach is going to continue and that we'll get back to a more normal, I'll call it normal trajectory into the medium term. As I spoke on a couple of the prior questions, how quickly that comes around will largely depend on what consumer sentiment is as we move forward.

[Garth Hankinson, Executive VP & CFO at Constellation Brands]

Yes. And then Bonnie on margins, I apologize this is probably a bit of a boring story because I think we've said it a few times before nothing's really changed. First of all, we're going to manage our footprint in the modular fashion that we've referenced previously. So we're going to limit the impact of depreciation and overhead absorption issues. In addition to that, we'll have incremental volume growth.

[Garth Hankinson, Executive VP & CFO at Constellation Brands]

We'll maintain our 1% to 2% pricing algorithm and certainly we'll continue on with our cost savings initiatives. Obviously, those tailwinds will be offset on a year to year basis by inflation and tariffs. But net net, when we put all that together, we think we can continue to deliver best in class margins at 39% to 40.

[Operator]

Thank you. Next question is coming from Rob Botenstein from Evercore ISI. Your line is now live.

[Robert Ottenstein, Senior Managing Director & Partner at EvercoreISI]

Great. Thank you very much. I just want to make sure why I get this as crystal clear as possible. I'm

[Robert Ottenstein, Senior Managing Director & Partner at EvercoreISI]

wondering if you

[Robert Ottenstein, Senior Managing Director & Partner at EvercoreISI]

can just kind of go through again how you're thinking about free cash flow deployment. And given the fact that you've shrunk the wine and spirits business or repositioned it, and given the fact that at least over the next couple of years, you expect less growth from the beer side of the business, you're reducing CapEx. Are you today and kind of going forward more open to larger acquisitions? Are you spending more time on acquisitions given the increased cash flow? So love to get your thoughts on that.

[Robert Ottenstein, Senior Managing Director & Partner at EvercoreISI]

I know you've re upped the authorization on the share buyback. Tied to that, is that a strong commitment that you will buy back? I think it was $4,000,000,000 worth of stock over the next three years. Just trying to get a sense of the priorities there and what is kind of guidance versus actual commitments along those lines? Thank you.

[Garth Hankinson, Executive VP & CFO at Constellation Brands]

Well, thanks for the question, Robert. And on the one hand, this will not be another boring answer because I think it's a lot of consistency with what we said in the past. But actually I think it's pretty exciting what we're going be doing here. I mean, as we outlined through FY twenty eight, we're going to generate $9,000,000,000 of operating cash flow and $6,000,000,000 of free cash flow. Our capital allocation priorities don't change.

[Garth Hankinson, Executive VP & CFO at Constellation Brands]

We're committed to being we're committed to achieving three times leverage. We're there now. We're actually a little bit below there now. We're committed to returning capital to shareholders through dividends and we'll maintain our approximately 30% dividend payout as we go forward. And then you referenced the new authorization for $4,000,000,000 in share repurchases that we received from our Board yesterday.

[Garth Hankinson, Executive VP & CFO at Constellation Brands]

This is actually I think very exciting. Mean not only is the $4,000,000,000 share repurchase authorization reflective of our discipline around capital allocation and share repurchases more specifically, but it's also reflective of the fact that we think that we're undervalued. Our share price is undervalued, remains undervalued. And we're going to execute on that share authorization as we have this past fiscal year, where we'll be disciplined on a quarter to quarter basis, but we will also have the ability to be opportunistic as we see dislocations in our share price. And then as we round out capital allocation, we're going to continue to invest in our beer business as we outlined in the materials yesterday, dollars 2,000,000,000 over the next few years.

[Garth Hankinson, Executive VP & CFO at Constellation Brands]

And M and A remains the of our priorities mainly around smaller plug in opportunities.

[Operator]

Thank you. Next question is coming from Chris Carrier from Wells Fargo Securities. Your line is now live.

[Christopher Carey, Equity Analyst - Head of Consumer Staples Research at Wells Fargo]

Hi, good morning everyone.

[Garth Hankinson, Executive VP & CFO at Constellation Brands]

Hey Chris.

[Christopher Carey, Equity Analyst - Head of Consumer Staples Research at Wells Fargo]

So Garth, can you just talk about the main drivers and considerations for gross margins going into fiscal 'twenty six? I fully appreciate that you had a lot of detail in slides, but I'm really trying to parse out the impact of tariffs on this model, whether that's just the aluminum cans relative to everything else. You also perhaps have a quite a notable currency tailwind in fiscal 'twenty six that may not help you in go forward years. And so I'm really just trying to understand the puts and takes, specifically the impact of tariffs relative to everything else on the model in fiscal 'twenty six and whether there are some nuances like currency that won't repeat so that we can have a better idea of how to layer this in going into fiscal 'twenty seven and fiscal 'twenty eight?

[Garth Hankinson, Executive VP & CFO at Constellation Brands]

Yes. So look, let me do my best there, Chris. And if we need to follow-up, we can follow-up. As the guidance that we provided yesterday, as we said, the impact of tariffs for our beer business. That is the impact on aluminum cans.

[Garth Hankinson, Executive VP & CFO at Constellation Brands]

As it relates to currency, as you know, we've talked about this multiple times that we have a multiyear layered approach to how we manage our currency. As we entered in FY 2026, we're above 70% hedged and we've seen some actually dislocations in The U. S. Peso rate here. We shouldn't see some dislocations but some weakness and we've taken opportunities to lighter in some incremental hedges both for this year and future years.

[Garth Hankinson, Executive VP & CFO at Constellation Brands]

So as always, we look to sort of we look to manage that on a year to year basis so that the impact isn't that material from a year to year perspective. We try to smooth that as best we can.

[Operator]

Thank you. Next question today is coming from Nadine Sarwat from Bernstein. Your line is now live.

[Nadine Sarwat, Analyst at Bernstein]

Thank you guys and appreciate all the incremental color that was provided in the prepared remarks in the presentation. Two questions for me. You called out a tough socioeconomic environment in your prepared remarks. Can you explain exactly what you're assuming in terms of that socioeconomic environment for the next three years? Are you assuming the current situation remains status quo or are you baking in some improvement in the back of that?

[Nadine Sarwat, Analyst at Bernstein]

And then secondly, on the weak depletion numbers and especially Modelo, appreciate the commentary that you provided. Could you pull apart the factors onto what's driving that? Maybe what has changed in a little more detail? I don't know if a rank order of magnitude or trying to quantify these in any way possible. And maybe you have any incremental consumer insight, consumer type, pack type channel, any incremental color would be helpful.

[Nadine Sarwat, Analyst at Bernstein]

Thank you.

[Bill Newlands, CEO at Constellation Brands]

Sure. So let's talk first about the Hispanic consumer because I think this is an important element. We do as you would expect, we do a fair amount of research around this consumer given that they represent roughly 50% of our overall beer business. And the fact is a lot of consumers in the Hispanic community are concerned right now. Two thirds of them are concerned about higher prices on things like food, gas and other essentials.

[Bill Newlands, CEO at Constellation Brands]

Over half are concerned relative to immigration issues and how those impact. A number of them are concerned about job losses in industries that have a high Latino employment base. And what does that do? That has tended to mean that the consumer has pulled back on spending on a number of categories. The single biggest one interestingly is restaurants.

[Bill Newlands, CEO at Constellation Brands]

But a lot of other consumer goods, clothing, home choice things to do, travel. Beer is quite a ways down the list, but it's certainly on the list because things like social gatherings, an area where the Hispanic consumer often consumes beer are declining today as part of these overarching concerns that they have. Therefore, all of that has had impact on our business. As you know, Modelo is over 50% Hispanic in terms of its demographic base. So this decline in efforts to go to restaurants, to have social gatherings, things that are very much beer occasions have softened in the more recent term.

[Bill Newlands, CEO at Constellation Brands]

And it's going to be key to watch as to how that impact continues or doesn't continue as we go forward. Net net, it's non structural. This is not our brands and our brand health continues to be top notch. We continue to focus on what we can win at, winning the shelf, winning execution, continuing to bring interesting innovation to the table that allows us to continue to outperform the overall category. But like as you would expect, we're going to need and want to see some improvement in the consumer brand health before we're able to correctly project how long some of these challenges are going to last.

[Bill Newlands, CEO at Constellation Brands]

Garth, anything you want to add?

[Garth Hankinson, Executive VP & CFO at Constellation Brands]

Yes. Just on some of the macro data points, and I'll give you sort of how we're thinking about that for the forecast period that we provided details on last night. We're not expecting any material improvement over this forecast period. Some of the macro trends that we're seeing and that we're tracking are unemployment and obviously unemployment has started to stabilize across the board. But we have seen weakness in those 4,000 calorie job sectors that have a higher impact on beer consumption.

[Garth Hankinson, Executive VP & CFO at Constellation Brands]

Year over year real disposable personal income reached a two year low in January and stayed low in February. Consumer sentiment rather reached a two point five year low in March and long term expectations from consumers isn't expected to change anytime soon. We've seen inflation rather, the expectations for inflation to not get as to not rebound quite as quickly as we had expected and the outlook for GDP growth now is a little bit more muted than it was. So we're not expecting any big improvements in that. As we go through calendar year 2025, we may see some of that moderate a bit and into 2026, so maybe some marginal improvement.

[Garth Hankinson, Executive VP & CFO at Constellation Brands]

But for the forecast period, we're not expecting any material improvement in the macroeconomic conditions.

[Operator]

Thank you. Next question today is coming from Peter Grom from UBS. Your line is now live.

[Peter Grom, Equity Research Analyst at UBS Group]

Thanks, operator. Good morning, everyone. So I was hoping to talk more on near term and just kind of get some perspective and just in terms of what's happening in terms of beer top line growth. Currently, obviously, a challenging exit rate and the guidance does seem to imply some improvement from that exit rate. So can you maybe just help us frame how we should be thinking about the guidance from here?

[Peter Grom, Equity Research Analyst at UBS Group]

Any considerations that we should consider as it relates to 1Q? And then just any thoughts in terms of what we should anticipate price versus volume? Thanks.

[Bill Newlands, CEO at Constellation Brands]

Well, think if you'll recall from last year, the strongest quarter that we had and frankly that the industry had was our fiscal Q1. So while we don't make any habit as you know of giving quarterly guidance, certainly the biggest overlap that we have is in this very first quarter as the business started to soften for the industry as well as for us as you progressed through the back half of last year. So that when you combine that with some of the socioeconomic climate issues that I've already referred to, I think you're going to see some volatility as the year goes on. Again, the key thing for us, and I know I'm repeating myself, but I think it's important to recognize, our brand health remains best of class. And in the longer run, that will continue to pay dividends for us as consumers get back to a normalized behavioral pattern.

[Operator]

Thank you. Next question is coming from Bill Kirk from Roth M. K. M. Your line is now live.

[Bill Kirk, Managing Director at Roth Capital Partners, LLC]

Good morning. So some people including the Teamsters and maybe one of the mega brewers, they seem to be trying to drive a wedge between American beer and imported beer. Are they having any success with that in the eyes of consumers? And how much influence do you think those type of groups have over alcohol tariff policies?

[Bill Newlands, CEO at Constellation Brands]

Interesting question, Bill. Tough to answer some of that question. What I would say is, one of the things that we're proud of as a company is our eighty years as an American company. As you know, we're our ownership is entirely in this country, although we make most of our beer in Mexico because we have Mexican heritage brands. But we spend roughly $1,000,000,000 a year in The United States market supporting our brands.

[Bill Newlands, CEO at Constellation Brands]

We have many of our grains and our barleys and our corn grown in the Mountain West Of The United States for inputs. I think when the overall Teamsters take a very hard look that we are very supportive of the Teamsters. I think we have brought more jobs to this marketplace than any other competitor has because of the growth of our business over time through our distributor network. So I think as people take a real hard look at what our company is and how we have performed in the marketplace, they will recognize that we have done an exceptional job of building U. S.

[Bill Newlands, CEO at Constellation Brands]

Jobs as we've also built our business in Mexico to support those U. S. Jobs.

[Operator]

Thank you. Our next question is coming from Andrew Strelzik from BMO Capital Markets. Your line is now live.

[Andrew Strelzik, Equity Research Analyst at BMO Capital Markets]

Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking the questions. Appreciate all the detail on the guidance. Obviously, it's a very fluid environment. I guess when you just think through all the assumptions that you've made here over the next and recasting kind of the next three years, where do you think there's the biggest risks to your assumptions and the biggest maybe where we might look back and say, hey, that turned out to be a little bit conservative?

[Bill Newlands, CEO at Constellation Brands]

Yes. I think the single biggest risk that we have is where the consumer is and how long their concerns last. If we had a crystal ball on that, it would a lot easier to make some projections because as the consumer feels better about things that will help not only our business but the overall category. Believe me, we'd like to see a healthy category. That would be to everyone in our industry's benefit.

[Bill Newlands, CEO at Constellation Brands]

And we certainly always like to see the industry succeed as we succeed. So that's the biggest variable that I think is out there is when does the consumer come around. We're going to stay crystal clear focused on the variables that we can control as I've talked to earlier today. But the consumer sentiment and the consumer's desire to get back out and shop and be comfortable in the socioeconomic environment is probably the single biggest variable that's tough to predict.

[Operator]

Thank you. Next question today is coming from Gerald Pascarelli from Needham and Company. Your line is now live.

[Gerald Pascarelli, MD - Equity Research at Needham & Company]

Great. Thanks very much for the question. I just had a housekeeping item on the wine business. So the $41,000,000 impact that you called out in your commentary, can you provide some detail on when you expect that to hit the operating income? Is that going to be in the first quarter of twenty twenty six?

[Gerald Pascarelli, MD - Equity Research at Needham & Company]

I guess that's my first question. Just any color on the cadence? And then as we think about the cost savings, I think 100,000,000 of the $200,000,000 is coming out of wine. Is that going to be more pronounced benefit to the operating income looking like if we had to look to 2027 or 2028, is that going to be more of a benefit when we get to 2027? So again, any color on the cadence there I think would be helpful.

[Gerald Pascarelli, MD - Equity Research at Needham & Company]

Thank you.

[Garth Hankinson, Executive VP & CFO at Constellation Brands]

Yes. So the $41,000,000 that you referenced that was called out in prepared materials that will kind of happen throughout the year. So just it won't be any one big quarter where that hits but throughout the year. And then in terms of the cost savings we called this out in our materials, right. So it's about $100,000,000 in total for wine and spirits.

[Garth Hankinson, Executive VP & CFO at Constellation Brands]

We're expecting about $55,000,000 in Q or in fiscal twenty twenty six. So the majority of the actions that we will take to achieve that $100,000,000 savings will occur in FY 2026. It's just you won't get the full run rate of that until you move into FY 2027 and then maybe a little bit into FY 2028.

[Operator]

Thank you. Next question is coming from Dara Mohsenian from Morgan Stanley. Your line is now live.

[Dara Mohsenian, Managing Director - US Beverage/Household Products Sectors at Morgan Stanley]

Hey, good morning. So clearly a pretty big revision in long term beer sales growth from the 7% to nine range to 2% to 4% in fiscal twenty twenty seven and 2028. So can you just give us a little more detail on how much of that is just related to the external environment and more conservatism on macros? How much of it is pressure points maybe that are more durable on the beer category, health and wellness demographics, etcetera? And then a third bucket of market share opportunity for STZ, just give us a sense of conceptually how much of that falls into each bucket.

[Dara Mohsenian, Managing Director - US Beverage/Household Products Sectors at Morgan Stanley]

And I realize this is like the eighth version of this question you've gotten on the call, but I guess the point is we're kind of hearing from you guys, your tone is that the beer depletion slowdown, it's more driven by short term factors. Obviously, we understand the difficult macro environment, but at the same time, you're making pretty large revisions to beer sales growth post fiscal twenty twenty six, which should be significantly macro depressed based on what we're seeing. So I'm just trying to sort of bridge those two points and how you guys think about that conceptually, if that makes sense.

[Bill Newlands, CEO at Constellation Brands]

Yes. It totally does, Dara. Our points are we have a near term issue as it relates to consumer sentiment. Very difficult to predict how long that will last or not. And so as we look at the fiscal year that we're in, we expect that it very well could be a significant factor throughout this fiscal year.

[Bill Newlands, CEO at Constellation Brands]

I think the question is, when does the consumer sentiment turn around? That's the one that's very difficult to project. But again, this is where we go back to have a shorter term issue, you have a near term issue, you don't have a brand health issue. I mean, I look at brand we don't always talk about on every single call, but Pacifico. Pacifico was up 16% last year.

[Bill Newlands, CEO at Constellation Brands]

It continues to grow and get consumer demand. It's a and I've called it on in years past, an early stage Modelo, because it's shown a similar growth profile to what Modelo did sort of a decade ago. The punch line to that is we have strength within our brands. We have new innovation agenda items that will open up new consumer occasions and new consumers to our franchises. And we're going to continue to work on the controllables.

[Bill Newlands, CEO at Constellation Brands]

It's very difficult for us to project some of the socioeconomic elements that are going to impact it. And it was our belief that it could be longer than we'd all anticipated. It's simply an area we can't answer. And that therefore is all reflected in the guidance we provided.

[Operator]

Thank you. Next question is coming from Komal Gajrawala from Jefferies. Your line is now live.

[Kaumil Gajrawala, Managing Director at Jefferies Financial Group]

If I can just follow-up on that Bill. So many times you're hearing sort of non structural, non structural and there's a lot of macro stuff, of course. But at the same time, the long term algorithm has changed quite a bit. And it feels like maybe some of it is structural and that could be law of large numbers. There maybe a revision in expectations for Hispanic population growth in The United States?

[Kaumil Gajrawala, Managing Director at Jefferies Financial Group]

Just is there anything maybe bigger in there that we should be aware of that's part of the calculus?

[Bill Newlands, CEO at Constellation Brands]

No, I don't think so. I think that when you look at lots of factors, when you look at our awareness levels versus some of the competition, when you look at our shelf positions versus some of the larger competition, we still have a lot of runway to grow. We have a lot of expansion capability of reaching using Modelo as an example into the non Hispanic community. We have only been investing against the non Hispanic community for the last several years. We have increased our amount of marketing spend.

[Bill Newlands, CEO at Constellation Brands]

As you know, in the back half of last year, we increased our spend even though the consumer was pulling back. And we're seeing that as providing great returns to our business. So we believe there's still a lot of opportunity for our business going forward that most of what is going on is socioeconomic issues that we believe will moderate over time. The question is, what's that time arise? That's a bit of a difficult one to answer.

[Operator]

Thank you. Next question is coming from Andrea Teixeira from JPMorgan. Your line is now live.

[Andrea Teixeira, Analyst at JPMorgan Chase]

Hi, good morning everyone. So, Bill Garth, seems that you have collected hard data to inform you on the new guidance. So I think it would be helpful if you can comment on what has happened with beer volumes in the more Hispanic zip codes against the general public, perhaps the later part of the fiscal Q4. And then I definitely understand the loyalty and the demographic bonus of this cohort by covering Grupo Modena when it was public exporting decades ago. And that strength, of course, kind of carried over to you as an importer.

[Andrea Teixeira, Analyst at JPMorgan Chase]

Can you also tell us like how that I mean obviously against the general public has shaped your information I mean your decision to reduce long term? And also related to that, you invested close to 9% of sales into the beer business in terms of A and P. And obviously, have been investing that $1,000,000,000 as you said. So just thinking of the 8.5% that you gave as a guidance for fiscal twenty twenty six, how should we be thinking given one, you have already gained a lot of distribution, of course you're going to gain additional 10%. And how are you going to be, I think, shifting given that you're becoming more general public as we go?

[Andrea Teixeira, Analyst at JPMorgan Chase]

How we should be thinking about all these dynamics? Thank you.

[Bill Newlands, CEO at Constellation Brands]

Sure. So let's try to take that in some order here. Relative to Hispanic consumer behavior, one of the things we've seen both factually and anecdotally is that there has been some channel shifts in what that consumer is doing. So historically, you saw overweighting to his stores that were largely Hispanic consumer base and C stores. Both of those we have seen some shifting into broader chain based accounts that are larger accounts.

[Bill Newlands, CEO at Constellation Brands]

And I think that reflects some of the concerns that we've talked about earlier that the Hispanic consumer is seeing across their broader life and lifestyle. To the 8.5%, we continue keep in mind that with the growth profile that we have every year, that continues to be an increase in the amount of spend that we have put against our business. And because of the very strong cost agendas that we have, we continue to put more fuel on that fire where appropriate to continue to support our business. We are going to continue to do exactly that. Our cost agenda, as you saw, we are expecting $200,000,000 over the next two point five fiscal years based on a strong cost agenda.

[Bill Newlands, CEO at Constellation Brands]

And we believe that some of that will get reinvested against our business to help drive future success along those lines. But we test and we review our marketing approach as you would expect on a quarter by quarter basis. But we're quite pleased that we continue to see very strong returns for the spend that we put against our beer business.

[Garth Hankinson, Executive VP & CFO at Constellation Brands]

Bill, if you don't mind, I'll

[Garth Hankinson, Executive VP & CFO at Constellation Brands]

just weigh in a couple more just on the marketing spend, I mean, as Bill just noted, we don't compromise on our marketing spend. It's a very disciplined approach. You've heard us say this before, we've got a lot of efficiencies in with our media agencies in terms of effectiveness and spend. And we will continue to target being the number one and number two share of voice with Modelo and Corona. And we've increased our sponsorship or our spend in with March Madness, with soccer, with Major League Baseball and with college football.

[Garth Hankinson, Executive VP & CFO at Constellation Brands]

So we're not shortchanging by any means the marketing investment behind our beer brands.

[Operator]

Thank you. Next question is coming from Carlos Laboy from HSBC. Your line is now live.

[Carlos Laboy, Managing Director at HSBC]

Yes. Hello. One interpretation of your three year guidance and its long term implication is that Corona Extra is the bud light of 02/2008, just a declining aging brand with volume declines that the rest of the portfolio might not be able to offset. Can you make the case for Corona Extra as you see it evolving? And I remember that in 02/2008, you were able to restabilize Corona actually where Bud Light couldn't.

[Carlos Laboy, Managing Director at HSBC]

How are you planning to stabilize it now and return that to growth? And might that be one of the structural kind of hurdles that you need to clear here that Camille was maybe alluding to in an earlier question?

[Bill Newlands, CEO at Constellation Brands]

So a couple of things as it relates to Corona. First of all, I think it's important to think about Corona about the brand family. Corona Familiar is one of our strong growth players in today's market. We have introduced Corona Sun Brew this year, which we're very encouraged about in its early days. We feel that's going to reach a different consumer and provide the opportunity for improvement in that particular piece.

[Bill Newlands, CEO at Constellation Brands]

Remember, it's got strong brand equity and awareness. It's the number one brand in the mind of consumers, the most loved brand in the mind of consumers in The United States. So Corona still has a very strong consumer base and consumer franchise. Interestingly enough, it is one of our best returns against our advertising approach, very, very strong. And we're increasing that spend in this fiscal year versus what we have done in the past.

[Bill Newlands, CEO at Constellation Brands]

So we remain optimistic about corona. And we expect that that's going to continue to be an important part of brand flow going forward.

[Operator]

Thank you. Next question is coming from Filippo Foloni from Citi. Your line is now live.

[Filippo Falorni, Director - Equity Research at Citi]

Hi, good morning everyone. I wanted to go back to the beer margin question that were asked before. Just a clarification. So on Slide 14, you guys show that you're expecting COGS inflation of low to mid single digit through fiscal twenty twenty eight, including net of cost savings. So on a net basis, you still have cost inflation.

[Filippo Falorni, Director - Equity Research at Citi]

Depreciation, even though you're mitigating some of the incremental addition, capacity addition is still going up. And the volume environment is also softer, so I assume there's a little bit less fixed cost leverage, although still positive. So can you help me understand what are the offset to all these headwinds on beer margins that allow you to maintain the beer margin unchanged? Thank you.

[Garth Hankinson, Executive VP & CFO at Constellation Brands]

No, I mean, look, as we said earlier, there be volume increases, which will help. There will be pricing in that 1% to 2%, which will help. Those cost initiatives will keep our inflation or will help mitigate that cost inflation and we'll manage depreciation. So that's where we feel comfortable, say, we'll be in 3940% operating margins. It's all of that put together.

[Operator]

Thank you. Next question is coming from Brian Spleen from Bank of America. Your line is now live.

[Bryan Spillane, Managing Director - Equity Research at Bank of America]

Hey, thanks operator and good morning everyone. First, Bill Garth, thank you for putting a stake in the ground. This is not an easy environment to try to forget about forecasting next month, let alone the next few years. And so whether it's accurate or not, it's just that you put a stake in the ground, you gave us some detail, it's really helpful. So thank My question is more around, as we're thinking about margins in beer and for the whole enterprise actually just structurally, Is the $200,000,000 in savings that we talked about yesterday, is most of that just a is most of that related to the divestiture of the parts of the wine business and kind of reducing some of the stranded overhead.

[Bryan Spillane, Managing Director - Equity Research at Bank of America]

And I guess what's really underneath my question is, as things evolve, should we expect there could be some opportunities to drive more efficiency? And especially as hopefully the landscape sort of becomes more clear?

[Garth Hankinson, Executive VP & CFO at Constellation Brands]

Brian, thanks for the question. And I think I understood it. So let me try to answer As we said that the over $200,000,000 of annualized savings of that about 100,000,000 of that is associated with the wine business. And that comes out after the divestiture. The remainder of that really is across our corporate functions as well as some in beer.

[Garth Hankinson, Executive VP & CFO at Constellation Brands]

So it is a reset as we try to make sure that we've got the most capable organization with the best skills and resources and investments behind it to deliver on our strategic priorities going forward. I think we've got a pretty good history around discipline of cost management. And so to the extent we identify areas over and above what we shared yesterday, we absolutely would execute on those. But it's a pretty the amount of cost we're taking out is I think it's a pretty aggressive yet very achievable amount and most of which we execute on this year.

[Bill Newlands, CEO at Constellation Brands]

So let me pile on you for once.

[Bryan Spillane, Managing Director - Equity Research at Bank of America]

How's Yes.

[Bill Newlands, CEO at Constellation Brands]

Brian, I think one of the things that Garth was just touching on is important. We have first of all, we have a superb supply chain capability within our business and we have already shown our colors around that. As we create more efficiencies over time, we invest that money behind our business to help grow the future.

[Bill Newlands, CEO at Constellation Brands]

That's an approach we have taken for many, many years now and it's one that we're going to continue to take. So as our ability to improve the efficiencies in our business continues to grow, we will continue to invest that money on the future of our business.

[Operator]

Thank you. Next question is coming from Steve Powers from Deutsche Bank. Your line is now live.

[Steve Powers, Equity Research Analyst at Deutsche Bank]

Good morning. Bill, Garth, thanks for the question. Maybe a quick one for each of you actually. Bill, similar to how you've discussed a couple of times the factors influencing demand on beer, I'd love any analogous comments you might have on the Wine and Spirits side and just how you see the various factors stacking up to inform the flat to 3% outlook that you have on the portfolio you are planning to retain? And then Garth, maybe you could expand a little bit more detail, if possible, on just how recent results from the revised outlook on beer is influencing how you're approaching the build out in Veracruz or any of the modular additions at the existing the other facilities, just any changes that are maybe worth highlighting?

[Steve Powers, Equity Research Analyst at Deutsche Bank]

Thank you.

[Bill Newlands, CEO at Constellation Brands]

Sure. Starting with wine, I'll let Garth answer the second half of the question. Our thinking around the wine business relates very similar to what we've done in beer, which is this creates a wine and spirits business going forward that plays at the higher end of the business. And that ties in with the long term premiumization trend that you see across all alcohol beverage. So we've finally gotten our portfolio sort of where we want it, so that it reflects that we're playing against that premium and up sector across both segments of our business.

[Bill Newlands, CEO at Constellation Brands]

To give you a perspective, in the fourth quarter of last year, the retained business in Wine and Spirits grew 4% depletions, which I think gives us some confidence and some excitement about what the future can look like for a much narrower, but a much more focused higher end portfolio for our wine business. That business has continued to be much stronger than what we've seen in other sectors of the wine business, which is why we're going to spend our time and energy on that sub segment of the overall wine category. Garth?

[Garth Hankinson, Executive VP & CFO at Constellation Brands]

Yes. And then just in terms of the modular approach and changes in how we're thinking about capacity, mean, there's really nothing more to share than what was in the materials we had earlier today or last night I should say. We're going to continue to manage our footprint responsibly and in line with what our volume expectations are. As you've seen we've reduced our expectations for capacity through FY '20 '20 '8 in the materials we shared last night. We're on pace specifically to Veracruz we're on pace to open that.

[Garth Hankinson, Executive VP & CFO at Constellation Brands]

That will be an important brewery for us as we think about the contribution that it has to the overall portfolio. But we'll be really mindful and bring out capacity when it's needed.

[Operator]

Thank you. Our next question today is coming from Kevin Grundy from BNP Paribas. Your line is now live.

[Kevin Grundy, Managing Director at BNP Paribas]

Great. Thanks. Good morning, guys. Wanted to come back to the investment levels in the beer business. I want to ask you from a little bit of a different angle.

[Kevin Grundy, Managing Director at BNP Paribas]

Garth, I think you mentioned satisfactory levels. I think looking back, the 8.5% is below the 10% levels where the company was in fiscal twenty twenty and twenty twenty one. And you typically are in this 9% to 10% sort of range. So I wanted to ask, everyone on the call is sympathetic to the volatility in the environment. Number one, was there any thought to kind of leaning in here, albeit weighing on margins a bit to try to accelerate top line growth, not an uncommon tact, as you guys are well aware, in CPG to see companies do that when the top line is waning as it clearly is?

[Kevin Grundy, Managing Director at BNP Paribas]

And then two, for both of you, should investors perceive this as kind of a philosophical reorientation, if you will, at Constellation, where there's kind of less of a bias towards top line growth and more of a bias towards margin preservation and cash flow, just kind of given what you're experiencing in the business, which would also not be uncommon either. And you might push and say it's not an eitheror that's kind of a false choice, but I'm just would like to hear more about how you're thinking about that balance. Thank you both.

[Garth Hankinson, Executive VP & CFO at Constellation Brands]

So just the marketing investment. So we feel as I said earlier and as Bill said as well, we feel really comfortable around our marketing investment as we laid out at our Investor Day our target was to be about 9%. And that's where we were in FY 2025. We're going to be a little bit below that in FY 2026 in terms of the forecast. But we don't limit that, right?

[Garth Hankinson, Executive VP & CFO at Constellation Brands]

When we talk to marketing we talk to our marketing teams, we ask them what they need and they tell us what they need, right? And so this is reflective of what our team thinks it needs to drive the type of performance that's included in our outlook. That being said and Bill referenced this earlier around our cost savings agenda and how we take savings smart cost savings agenda and reinvest that in high return opportunities within the business. We did that last year where in Q3 and Q4 we invested significantly more money in marketing to drive and to support our brands. So that's the discipline that we have on a year to year basis or a quarter to quarter basis.

[Garth Hankinson, Executive VP & CFO at Constellation Brands]

That won't change. And the last piece I'll just say on that before I turn it over to Bill as well is again while the percentage is coming down, we've gotten significantly more efficient in the way that we buy media and the way that we manage our marketing spend.

[Bill Newlands, CEO at Constellation Brands]

And relative to your comment about has our approach to things changed? The answer is no. Look, six out of the last eight years, we have been the number one Surcana large company CPG company in terms of growth. It included last calendar year despite the challenges that we saw both within our industry and to some degree within our brands as part of that industry. But it doesn't didn't change the fact that we were the number one large company, Surcana growth company last year.

[Bill Newlands, CEO at Constellation Brands]

We expect to continue to see both top line growth and maintaining a strong margin structure of 39% to 40% as Garth outlined. Our expectation around that hasn't changed. We think both are important and we're going to do our damndest to do both of those.

[Operator]

Thank you. Next question is coming from Robert Moskow from TD Cowen. Your line is now live.

[Robert Moskow, Managing Director at TD Cowen]

Hey, thanks. We're all kind of trying to fish around to figure out what the exact tariff impact is on your can costs. And it sounds like it's pretty sensitive information, so I understand. But I'm just trying to figure out if I have the building blocks right. If you spend like $900,000,000 a year on aluminum cans and it's a 25% tariff, do I just put those two numbers together or am I just way too high on that number?

[Garth Hankinson, Executive VP & CFO at Constellation Brands]

I would say take a look at the information that we provided in the guidance that we issued last night. And I think that if you look at the top and bottom line growth rates you can figure out what the impact is.

[Robert Moskow, Managing Director at TD Cowen]

Well, there's a lot of other assumptions in those impacts. So what are the other assumptions? Would it be productivity?

[Joseph Suarez, Senior VP of Investor Relations at Constellation Brands]

Robert, yes, on an absolute basis as we disclosed in all the materials, it includes productivity, includes cost savings, it includes inflationary pressures and so forth. But again, that is all baked into the margin assumption, tariffs are as well. So all disclosures have been made available as made available.

[Operator]

Thank you. Our next question is coming from Michael Lavery from Piper Sandler. Your line is now live.

[Michael Lavery, Senior Equity Research Analyst at Piper Sandler Companies]

Thank you. Good morning. Just wanted to come back to just the capacity approach and I recognize you've tried to adjust to match what you expect to need. But maybe help us understand the mix a little bit. It sounds like you're still adding modules.

[Michael Lavery, Senior Equity Research Analyst at Piper Sandler Companies]

Besides Veracruz, I guess maybe first, are we right to assume that the flexibility you have to ship by sea from Veracruz, it should at least allow for some potential savings? And if so, what's the thinking to add at all your locations as opposed to just push there? Maybe just love to understand that a little bit better.

[Garth Hankinson, Executive VP & CFO at Constellation Brands]

Yes. I mean, when we look at our brewery footprint, there's a number of things that we take into consideration. One is the size and scale of the brewery. Another is what are the capabilities of that brewery in terms of the brewery capable of producing the entirety of the portfolio and have the complexity to service the entire portfolio? Or is it a brewery that's going be a bit more specialized and run large packaging lines?

[Garth Hankinson, Executive VP & CFO at Constellation Brands]

And then to your point, we also look at how do we optimize logistics costs in terms of getting our product into the market most cost efficiently. So those are the things that kind of go into it. Specifically to Veracruz, while that is further south and I know that there's been questions around what the impact that will have on logistics going forward, Keep in mind that in the overall footprint that will be about 3,000,000 hectoliters of the overall 55,000,000 hectoliters. So it's a relatively small piece of the total footprint. We're still reviewing what we what options we have from a logistics standpoint to make that as cost effective as possible.

[Garth Hankinson, Executive VP & CFO at Constellation Brands]

But we're also from a capability standpoint treating Veracruz as a brewery that will run along production lines of high volume SKUs and therefore minimize the cost there and try to offset any incremental logistics costs.

[Operator]

Thank you. We reached the end of our question and answer session. And ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude today's teleconference and webcast. You may disconnect your lines at this time and have a wonderful day. We thank you for your participation today.

Participants

Executives

• Joseph Suarez, Senior VP of Investor Relations
• Bill Newlands, CEO
• Garth Hankinson, Executive VP & CFO

Analysts

• Lauren Lieberman, Managing Director at Barclays
• Nik Modi, Managing Director at RBC Capital Markets
• Bonnie Herzog, Managing Director at Goldman Sachs
• Robert Ottenstein, Senior Managing Director & Partner at EvercoreISI
• Christopher Carey, Equity Analyst - Head of Consumer Staples Research at Wells Fargo
• Nadine Sarwat, Analyst at Bernstein
• Peter Grom, Equity Research Analyst at UBS Group
• Bill Kirk, Managing Director at Roth Capital Partners, LLC
• Andrew Strelzik, Equity Research Analyst at BMO Capital Markets
• Gerald Pascarelli, MD - Equity Research at Needham & Company
• Dara Mohsenian, Managing Director - US Beverage/Household Products Sectors at Morgan Stanley
• Kaumil Gajrawala, Managing Director at Jefferies Financial Group
• Andrea Teixeira, Analyst at JPMorgan Chase
• Carlos Laboy, Managing Director at HSBC
• Filippo Falorni, Director - Equity Research at Citi
• Bryan Spillane, Managing Director - Equity Research at Bank of America
• Steve Powers, Equity Research Analyst at Deutsche Bank
• Kevin Grundy, Managing Director at BNP Paribas
• Robert Moskow, Managing Director at TD Cowen
• Michael Lavery, Senior Equity Research Analyst at Piper Sandler Companies