Forum Energy Technologies Q1 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
May 2, 2025

There are 10 speakers on the call.

Operator

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the First Quarter twenty twenty five Forum Energy Technologies Inc. Earnings Conference Call. My name is Gigi, and I'll be your coordinator for today's call. There is a process for entering the question and answer queue. To ask a question during the session, you will need to press 11 on your telephone.

Operator

You will then hear an automated message advising your hand is raised. To withdraw your question, please press 11 again. A link with instructions can also be found on the company's Investor Relations website under the Events section. At this time, all participants are in listen only mode and all lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. This conference call is being recorded for replay purposes and will be available on the company's website.

Operator

I will now turn the conference over to Rob Kuukla, Director of Investor Relations. Please proceed, sir.

Speaker 1

Thank you, Gigi. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to FET's first quarter twenty twenty five earnings conference call. With me today are Neil Lux, our President and Chief Executive Officer and Lyle Williams, our Chief Financial Officer. Yesterday, we issued our earnings release and it is available on our website. Please note that we are relying on the Safe Harbor protections afforded by federal law.

Speaker 1

Listeners are cautioned that our remarks today may contain information other than historical information. These remarks should be considered in the context of all factors that affect our business, including those disclosed in FET's Form 10 ks and other SEC filings. Finally, management's statements may include non GAAP financial measures. For a reconciliation of these measures, you may refer to our earnings release. During today's call, all statements related to EBITDA refer to adjusted EBITDA.

Speaker 1

And unless otherwise noted, all comparisons are first quarter twenty twenty five to fourth quarter twenty twenty four. I will now turn the call over to Neil.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Rob, and good morning, everyone. Since our earnings call in February, U. S. Trade and tariff policies have undergone a radical upheaval. This has generated significant economic uncertainty and dampened the outlook for commodity demand.

Speaker 2

In addition, OPEC plus announced faster supply growth than previously anticipated. The combination of these events is putting pressure on commodity prices. Oil prices have declined dramatically and are hovering near four year lows. While we have not seen a change in market activity, in our experience, rig count declines tend to lag commodity prices by three to six months. FET's activity based sales are highly correlated to rig count, and unless oil and gas prices rebound, we could see a decline in revenue starting in the third quarter.

Speaker 2

Given this uncertainty, we are proactively mitigating tariffs, optimizing our supply chain and reducing costs and inventory. In March, we announced price increases to counter the cost impacts of tariffs. While we utilize U. S. Sourced content for a majority of our raw materials, it is important to note that tariffs increase prices broadly, not just on imports.

Speaker 2

For example, one of the largest domestic U. S. Steel producers has increased prices by over 30% since January. This is broad based price inflation, and we must pass these costs on to our customers. Another way we are mitigating tariffs is by leveraging our global footprint.

Speaker 2

We are increasing assembly activities at our facilities in Saudi Arabia and Canada to efficiently serve global markets. In addition, over the past several years, we have strategically de risked our supply chain to minimize dependence on a specific country and provide optionality in sourcing. Another area of focus is expense and inventory management. We are aligning our cost structure to operate under potentially lower activity levels. Approximately 80% to 85% of our cost base is variable, primarily materials and labor.

Speaker 2

We can efficiently manage these costs as activity declines. In addition, we are insourcing components to increase facility utilization, thereby improving efficiency and lowering expenses. Also, we initiated actions to eliminate $10,000,000 of annualized cost. Inventory management also plays a key role. In 2024, we generated the highest level of free cash flow in nearly a decade by focusing on working capital management.

Speaker 2

Specifically, we generated approximately $40,000,000 from inventory reductions. Given the softer outlook, we are actively managing inbound material orders and will carefully align the business with market conditions. Turning to our full year outlook. At the outset of the year, we forecasted a modest 2% to 5% decline in global drilling and completions activity. We anticipated North America rig count would soften, while international activity would be generally flat.

Speaker 2

We also assumed a slower first quarter with progressive improvements as we moved through the year. As I discussed earlier, there is limited visibility beyond the second quarter. If commodity prices remain at current levels, it is reasonable to expect a reduction in global rig count in the second half of the year. In that scenario, we believe full year EBITDA would be around $85,000,000 With this outlook, our focus on generating free cash flow is important. With the measures described earlier, especially our cost and inventory management efforts, we are confident in our previously announced guidance range of 40,000,000 to $60,000,000 in free cash flow.

Speaker 2

This result would allow us to execute meaningful share buybacks and significant debt reduction. I am going to turn the call over to Lyle. Following his comments, I will conclude by discussing our long term outlook.

Speaker 3

Thank you, Neil. Good morning. The team overcame tariff impacts to deliver positive financial results in the first quarter. These results met our expectations with revenue of $193,000,000 and EBITDA of $20,000,000 Orders increased 6% to $2.00 $1,000,000 for a book to bill ratio of 104%. Stimulation and intervention product line orders returned to customary levels and we received meaningful bookings for subsea projects in the quarter.

Speaker 3

Furthermore, in April, we have already booked another $8,000,000 of subsea orders. Growing backlog in the subsea product line reflects the strength of the offshore market and will support overall revenue through the next few quarters. The Drilling and Completion segment performed well in the quarter. Revenue increased $5,000,000 driven by a rebound in sales of completions related consumable and capital equipment. Favorable product mix and overhead cost reduction initiatives supported 64% incremental EBITDA margins and operating profitability benefited further from lower amortization expense.

Speaker 3

In contrast, our artificial lift and downhole segment revenues declined and unfavorable product mix lowered margins. First quarter results were impacted by the timing of shipments of project orders and softer demand for Veraperm products. Given the strength of its fourth quarter results, Veraperm had a high performance bar to overcome. This product family experienced particular weakness in Canada with unfavorable customer and product mix impacting results. However, our investment thesis for Veraperm remains intact and we anticipate positive progression through the year.

Speaker 3

In addition, we are experiencing negative headwinds in our Valve Solution product line. On our fourth quarter call, we stated that we may see short term impacts and variability in our results as we pass through tariff impacts with increased pricing. The magnitude of tariffs levied on Chinese imports has impacted demand for our valves product line, which, like our competitors, sources a large amount of product from China. With the uncertainty around these tariffs, our customers began a buyer strike, significantly reducing orders and delaying near term deliveries. We believe these reduced purchase levels could continue for a couple of quarters until tariff levels wane or distributor inventories are depleted.

Speaker 3

In the meantime, for Valve Solutions and our other product lines, we are adjusting sourcing strategies and raising prices in response to specific tariff driven impacts. Looking ahead to the second quarter, despite market uncertainty, we have not seen operators deviate materially from their plans. Some customers have indicated more white space on their calendars beginning late in the second quarter, but this could be offset by a pickup in natural gas activity. Overall indications are the drilling and completions activity should remain relatively stable from first quarter levels. Therefore, we expect flat quarter over quarter results with second quarter revenue to be in the range of 180,000,000 to 200,000,000 and EBITDA to be between $18,000,000 and $22,000,000 We estimate corporate costs of $7,000,000 depreciation and amortization expense of $8,000,000 interest expense of $5,000,000 and tax expense of 3,000,000 With our focus on cash, we generated $7,000,000 in free cash flow in the first quarter, up three times from the prior year first quarter.

Speaker 3

This marks our seventh consecutive quarter of positive free cash flow generation. As Neil mentioned, we remain confident in our full year free cash flow guidance of 40,000,000 to 60,000,000 In the event that market activity declines and our EBITDA is closer to the $85,000,000 then we expect unwinding working capital to bridge the potential decrease in EBITDA. Our full year confidence comes from more than just our ability to convert working capital. Over the past two years, we transformed our business systems and reinforced these improvements with key performance indicators and financial incentives aimed at strong, repeatable free cash flow generation. We envision FET being a cash flow engine that regardless of market condition yields $3.5 to $5 of free cash flow per share this year.

Speaker 3

The balance sheet improvements we made over the past several years, including the debt conversion to equity, organic debt retirement and refinancing put FET in a solid financial position. We have 108,000,000 of liquidity and no debt maturities until 2028. At the end of the first quarter, our net debt was $146,000,000 for a quarter ending net leverage ratio of 1.56 times. This strong balance sheet and continued free cash flow allow us to further reduce net debt and return cash to shareholders. We began our shareholder returns in the first quarter by repurchasing roughly 1% of our outstanding shares for $2,000,000 As we outlined last quarter, our plan is to utilize 50% of our free cash flow to further reduce our net debt.

Speaker 3

The remaining free cash flow would be used for strategic investments that increase shareholder value, including share repurchases. As a reminder, our net leverage ratio must be below 1.5 times for us to repurchase shares. Given the market uncertainty and potential for slower activity, this incurrence test may impact the size and timing of our share repurchases. However, with our forecasted free cash flow, we remain comfortable with our ability to both reduce net leverage and continue share repurchases this year. Let me turn the call back to Neil for closing comments.

Speaker 3

Neil?

Speaker 2

Thank you, Lyle. Taking a step back, the market we find ourselves in today is uncertain. While we are eliminating expenses to adjust to potential market activity, we will not jeopardize our future. We have the resources to execute our beat the market strategy. We will continue to make commercial and engineering investments that will drive profitable market share growth through innovation.

Speaker 2

We believe strongly that the investment case for FET remains intact. This belief is based on our track record of significant outperformance, the incredible value of our stock and our long term growth potential. Since 2021, FET has grown revenue at a compound annual rate of 15%, three times faster than the Russell two thousand Index, which we are a part of. We have grown EBITDA and cash flow over 70% annually, many, many, many times better than our Index. Simply put, we have delivered spectacular relative financial results and yet we trade at a significant discount to the Russell two thousand and with our oilfield service peers.

Speaker 2

Today, our forward free cash flow yield is north of 25%. Very few stocks trade at yields this high, while also having FET's long term growth potential. This unlocked value makes share buybacks extremely compelling. Since we announced our buyback authorization in December, we have outperformed the Oilfield Service Index, the Russell two thousand and the average of our peers by significant margins. This performance has confirmed our buyback thesis and we will seek to buy as many shares as possible within our returns framework.

Speaker 2

There is uncertainty over the next six to twelve months. However, longer term, we envision strong growth for FET. The world needs energy. Over the next decade, population growth, economic expansion, and full scale implementation of artificial intelligence will drive energy demand. Investment will be required to supply the world's needs.

Speaker 2

It is only a matter of time before the headwinds we see today will turn into tailwinds supercharging our growth. In the meantime, we are executing our beat the market strategy. We will deliver our products to customers around the world with our global footprint. And we will continue to innovate and develop new products and solutions that increase the safety and efficiency of energy production. Thank you for joining us today.

Speaker 2

Gigi, please take the first question.

Operator

Thank Our first question comes from the line of Joshua Jane from Daniel Energy Partners.

Speaker 4

Thanks. Good morning.

Speaker 2

Hi, Josh.

Speaker 4

First question I wanted to hit on the Subsea side. You talked about bookings were up 60% quarter over quarter due to the customer adoption of some new products. Then you also highlighted, I think an additional order in April. Maybe you guys could talk about more about that given at least on the rig count side, we've seen a bit of a slowdown in rigs being contracted, but you seem to highlight some strength there. So talk about the products that are getting adopted and the outlook there a bit more.

Speaker 2

Yes, we're really excited about the progress we're making in Subsea C. We address obviously offshore oil and gas, offshore wind and defense with that product line. And really across all three areas where we're good inbound inquiries as well as turning those inquiries into orders. We provide remote operated vehicles, ROVs and launch and recovery systems for those markets. I think we've established over the years a position of strong market share and, you know, we believe around the 30% of the vehicles, you know, that are in use today or more were our brand.

Speaker 2

And so I think as those vehicles have aged and the work has increased, we're seeing a lot more demand for those vehicles and then with the Unity software system, operating system that we developed that allows for more remote operation capability. We've sold about eight more of those systems since the beginning of the year and we'll be delivering those throughout the year. So excited about the activity we're seeing in subsea, I think it also shows really the breadth of our reach. Subsea is about 10% of our revenue, but offshore, we think is around 15% to 20% of our total revenue, whether it's done through our offshore pipelines or equipment we deliver with our drilling group.

Speaker 4

Okay, thanks for that. Then as my follow-up, another thing that sort of jumped out a little bit release was part of the increase in orders for drilling completion was for stimulation related equipment. Could you talk about what products there saw strength given that completion crews aren't moving higher? And has a lot of inventory been exhausted and could you see a similar level of orders even if crew counts are sort of flat to down given the uncertainty you talked about in the second half of the year?

Speaker 2

Yes, I think the, we ended last year when I say we, our industry really lean. The frac crews that were working really limited all purchases to a minimum as they finished Q4. In the quarter, I think we rebounded to what's a normal level to be at. And what we are seeing is as maybe there's fewer crews working or, you know, but they are doing more per day. They're pumping more stages per day, they're working more hours per day.

Speaker 2

And so we're seeing key items like our power ends, which is really the drive for frac pumps. You know, historically, we call it capital, but what we're seeing is that those power ends are being replaced, you know, or rebuilt significantly, you know, after twelve or eighteen months. So they're being replaced much more quickly than, you know, just a few years ago when those pieces of equipment would last three or four years. So I think that's part of it. I really view that as a rebound.

Speaker 2

We also saw a rebound in our wireline product line, which again serves the completion group. I think they get a rebound from Q4, but also, our cables are going farther than the hole and are working more stages per day. They're just going to wear out quicker. So that's part of the cadence there as well.

Speaker 5

Thanks a lot. I'll turn it back.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Josh.

Operator

Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Dan Pickering from Pickering Energy Partners.

Speaker 6

Good morning, guys. Hey, Dan. Lyle, could you remind us so you indicated that you repurchased shares during the quarter, and you talked about that 1.5 leverage ratio, which sounds like you ended the quarter slightly above the metric, but you repurchased shares during the quarter. Does that mean you'd pay down the facility? Or how did that work during the quarter?

Speaker 6

And how do think about that variability as we move into the Q2 and Q3?

Speaker 3

Yes, that's a super question, Dan. And there's a good nuance there with how our metrics are done. We'll report you and our other investors on a quarterly basis, both our EBITDA and our net debt and hence we ended with that 1.56. For the incurrence test ratio of 1.5 times, We measure EBITDA quarterly just like we do for our public filings here, but we measure net debt within thirty days of buying back our shares. Our bondholders wanted us to do that just so we kept a tighter rein maybe than quarter to quarter, call it month to month or even week to week as far as how cash moves.

Speaker 3

So that opens up windows for us to buy shares within a quarter and that's what happened in the first quarter. We were able to take advantage of the market early and our leverage ratio there. Similarly, as we think ahead to the second quarter we're in now, even the third quarter, those windows were open based on just the intra quarter timing of how our cash flows in the quarter. So expect that and expect those windows will open and we'll be able to take advantage of them here in the second and third quarter.

Speaker 6

Okay. That's helpful. And then maybe can you spend a little bit of time talking about the cost efforts? Mentioned in the press release and the call sort of $10,000,000 annualized. Is that just tell us a little bit about how we'll start to see that?

Speaker 6

Do we think we get some of it immediately or is it longer dated? How do we expect to see it flow through?

Speaker 3

Yes. We did see a little bit of benefit already in the first quarter with some of the activities and cost reduction measures that we put in place even before kind of call it the April noise that happened in the market. So we've seen a little bit there, but if we think about our cost structure, it's a really highly variable cost structure between material and labor and overhead being a significant portion of our overall cost structure. Good news is that makes it very variable. So with activity coming down, we can manage those costs down very well.

Speaker 3

What we're specifically targeting with the $10,000,000 is some of the more fixed costs. So those are ones that won't necessarily vary with revenue and those could be embedded in cost of goods sold, could also be within our SG and A. So we'll be looking at efficiency gains, changes that we can make and the like that will drive some cost out. Those are going on right now and would expect some benefit in the second quarter and more benefits to roll through into the third quarter as well.

Speaker 6

Okay. Thank you. Then, Neil, maybe as you indicated, we haven't seen any softness yet. There's risk. Specific business lines or is it order intake?

Speaker 6

What are you watching as you're sort of canary in the coal mine around activity any Yes,

Speaker 2

Dan. Haven't seen that yet. I think a couple things, about 80% to 85% of our revenue is activity based. So these are consumables that are required to operate for our customers, whether it's coil tubing or wireline or downhole tool. So we're really close to that.

Speaker 2

What we wanted to do though, is what we thought was prudent is when you see oil prices come down to a level like they're at now, unless there's a rebound, we believe, rig count or overall activity is going to follow with a lag. And so, part of our cost saving effort, part of our material, let's call it slowdown of inbound material that we wanted to get ahead of this thing. So I think it's easier if you make the cut sooner. Then let's say we work a little bit more overtime, we use a little bit more inventory. And, you know, if oil prices, let's say rebound in the next, next couple months or next couple weeks, it won't hurt our long term ability to respond to that.

Speaker 2

So we're gonna stay close to the customers. We're gonna follow our inbound orders in the canary in the coal mine. See shipments drop off in a month, we'll know our customers are pulling back. But right now we haven't heard any specific indications of that. So we're operating businesses as usual, but we're keeping an eye out and we're going to be proactive in how we respond.

Speaker 6

Good. Well, I applaud you guys for being quick on the trigger here. Last question for me. You mentioned pushing price in certain areas related to rising costs. Is it holding?

Speaker 6

Is it sticking? Is that part of the buyer strike on the valve side for instances, they don't like the higher price and they're waiting to see if it'll come down. Just what's the reaction to price?

Speaker 2

So, have a lot of different, Dan as you know, we have a lot of different products, we address a lot I think each of those are unique to me that the valve story is, it's China specifically, where almost all valves that are important in The US originate. And I think also our customers see the quick change whether the tariffs start at 30% then they go up to 145, are they going to come down in a week based on a tweet. So I think that's part of the valve specific story is unless you absolutely positively must have a valve, you are better off holding off in almost all cases. Now, we think that inventory is going to run out.

Speaker 2

Our customers are going to need it and they're going to have to buy it. That said, we are also looking at alternative strategies that could take away or radically improve our cost position and make us far more competitive. So we're implementing those efforts, not ready to get into those details yet today, but we want to find a way to take these lemons and make lemonade out of them.

Speaker 6

Thank you.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Dan. Thanks, Dan.

Operator

Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Jeff Robertson from Water Tower Research.

Speaker 7

Thanks. Good morning.

Speaker 5

Good morning, Jeff.

Speaker 8

You all spoke about a little bit

Speaker 7

of turbulence in Canada in the first quarter. Can you elaborate on what's going on up there with Veraperm and whether or that's seasonal or temporary or anything Yeah,

Speaker 4

so I

Speaker 2

think it's definitely temporary and I think we're also heading into what's typically a slower season in Canada overall. But what we saw with Veraperm is really a combination of customer and product mix. What we mean by customers is that there are certain oil sands operators where we have a higher So if more of those customers are working, obviously it's more share for us. So I think our customer mix or the share of who was working or drilling in Q1 was unfavorable for Verapro.

Speaker 2

I think the other part was that for those that were working that we were selling to, they didn't utilize our flow control products as much as what other operators was. I think it was a product mix there as well. So a little bit off there, but overall, Veriferm still generating a ton of cash. I think they're still in the right position. They're still innovating.

Speaker 2

So I think as we look to the back half of the year, I think we'll some improvement with that business going forward. Still love it, still have the type of margins we're impressed with. Just had a great fourth quarter, maybe not quite as good in Q1. Don't see any long term impact though.

Speaker 7

We're basically a month into a lower oil price. So your comments around the lag in activity is that your customers try to figure out their businesses. Can you share any color on recent conversations with customers about longer lead time items and

Speaker 8

how

Speaker 7

they're thinking about that?

Speaker 2

Our longest lead time items tend to be with our capital businesses. And so, that's for example, subsea and we are seeing more activity there. On our consumable based businesses, the conversations we're having with our customers really haven't changed from where we've been. At the ops level, they are not seeing any changes. Again, view is that we want to be prepared and get out in front of it.

Speaker 2

That's why we're acting this way. We just, we feel like the macro in many ways leads the activity and unless oil prices rebound or gas price, gas activity really jumps, We just envision rig count coming down in the next three to six months.

Speaker 7

If you do see over time a shift toward more gas directed drilling where there can be higher temperatures and higher town hall pressures to deal with. Does that affect the life of some of the consumables and maybe shorten the replacement cycle of certain products versus having them working in oil reservoirs?

Speaker 2

You got it 100% right there, Jeff. Yeah, absolutely. Gas tends to be higher pressure, higher temperature, items like wireline, coil tubing, even some of our downhole tools, they do wear out more quickly and need to be replaced more frequently. So yeah, even actually even surface items like pumps wear out more quickly under that higher pressure. So yeah, all in all, a shift to more gas, I think would help our consumable demand.

Speaker 7

Thanks. And then just lastly, have you seen any change in any of the renewable type exposure that you have, whether it's data centers with I think your cooling units or RV demand for offshore wind?

Speaker 2

Yeah, let me start with the offshore. So we, I think our offshore business is really Eastern Hemisphere or Southern, let's call it South America focus. So we have not seen a change. In fact, we've seen acceleration in the offshore. Again, I think part of that is oil and gas, part of that is defense, part of that is also the offshore wind.

Speaker 2

No change there. On the power gen side data centers, we are still adding and still booking our coolers that go into those applications. So the Powertron, which is our radiator for power applications, you are still seeing a nice uptake there and we expect that to continue through the year.

Speaker 9

Thank you.

Speaker 7

Thanks, Jeff.

Operator

Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Steve Ferrizani from Sidoti.

Speaker 8

Good morning, everyone. Appreciate all the detail on the call. I wanted to ask about your how you can benefit from your geographical diversification in this environment. I mean, the expectation that you walked through it S.

Speaker 8

Short cycle probably gets hit first. But when you hear the calls, certain markets that you're in are likely to hold up better. Can you talk about is there any way to target the stronger markets and you can't completely replace what you'll lose in US short cycle, but what you can do in that kind of environment?

Speaker 2

Yeah, great question. I think maybe first example is the subsea business, right? I think there's, there have been times where, you know, that, you know, the longer cycle or subsea just was out of favor and there's more focus on US land. I think we're seeing really the opposite now. We're seeing really strong momentum.

Speaker 2

I think our bookings in subsea that we had the best bookings quarter in five quarters or so. So I think that was really encouraging. So that's part of how we do it. Again, if you think about our subsea business, typically it's Eastern Hemisphere related or South America. That's going well.

Speaker 2

We also we are expanding our downhole business line into The Middle East. Those efforts started obviously a few years ago, they're continuing and we still see good results there.

Speaker 3

Steve, I'll jump in. In addition to what we might see from the markets, I think there are cost and or tariff advantages that we can take advantage of with our geographic footprint from a manufacturing perspective. Clearly have a lot of manufacturing footprint in The US and for months have been working on an effort to in source product that previously had been outsourced. Through doing that, increase manufacturing utilization, which is great at this potentially softer time, but also can avoid some of the tariff impact. And similarly, we can use our international facilities like Neil mentioned on the call in order to avoid US facilities completely.

Speaker 3

So that shifting supply chain where maybe components come in from high tariff countries into The US to then be re exported for international markets. We just skip The US step, whether that's leveraging our facility in Saudi or in Canada, product can head in there from international locations, manufactured, assembled, tested and then shipped out. So that international footprint is really something we're able to take advantage of here in this time of tariff related uncertainty.

Speaker 8

You never knew the flexibility was going to be this useful, I'm assuming, but very helpful right now, no doubt. Good to see you're ahead of it. Can I ask? Ahead. Go ahead.

Speaker 8

I was going to ask about look, steel price has been the most obvious one. You can raise prices, but there's going to be a lag. Do you have any idea right now based on your 2Q guidance what the impact is from tariffs? Is there any way to quantify that? And there's a lot of moving parts to that, what the impact to you is in 2Q based on your guidance from higher costs and tariffs?

Speaker 2

Yes. I think the biggest impact will be valves, right? So we're we talked about the buyer strikes, I think that that's in our number. So that is concerning for us. Then we've put that in our forecast.

Speaker 2

The other areas where we've seen price increase, I think a couple of you're right on the price, you're going to have a lag when you raise price, but we also have a lag of when the costs are going up because we do have some inventory, we do have some orders. I think we're hopeful that those balance and that any tariff impact that's out there, we're going to recoup with either price or change in our supply chain.

Speaker 8

Okay, that's helpful. Last one for me, and I guess maybe, hopefully, we don't run into this scenario. There is the event where you're building cash, but the window remains closed for an extended period. In that event, do you just build is the plan to build cash or would you look for alternate usage?

Speaker 3

Great question. And I think as you recall in our framework that we've laid out, first half of our cash is going to go to net debt reduction. And when we restructure our debt last year, Steve, you'll remember that we left a decent chunk of cash on our revolver. So the idea there is we not only reduce net debt, but we actually reduce absolute debt and save interest expense. So that half will go to paying down our revolver.

Speaker 3

If there's a reason why we can't buy back shares for some period of time, I think we continue to pile down the revolver that will lower net debt and ultimately open the window back up. I think we'll get the benefit of reduced interest expense if that happens. But really, we believe we can get there with leverage ratio on a more expedited basis.

Speaker 8

Perfect. Thanks everyone. Appreciate it.

Speaker 3

Thanks, Steve.

Operator

You. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Dave Storms from Stonegate.

Speaker 5

Good morning, Appreciate you taking

Speaker 7

my questions. Good

Speaker 3

morning, Dave.

Speaker 5

Just wanted to start and apologies if I missed this. But assuming the tariff levels do wane a little bit over the coming months, how much of the demand do you think could be made up and how much of those orders are just kind of gone?

Speaker 3

That's a great question. Think a big feature of what we're talking about, remember, is our valves product line and we will look at the valves that we primarily manufacture and source from China. The major supply chain for our competitors is also from China. So we feel that all of our competitors are seeing the same thing and we hear about similar price increases and price actions. So I think what that means is we really have this buyer strike where buyers just aren't buying product.

Speaker 3

At some point, the ultimate demand and then use rebounds, know, where things could be delayed more permanently is really call it capital spend by end users. So that's in a refinery or a petchem project or in a pipeline, if that's deferred, then that demand just gets deferred. If it's maintenance or if it's depleting inventories, then I think we could see a rebound. So so a a really positive move would be a decrease in those tariffs. I think as we look at the geopolitical macro and what's being said about trade policies, we're not expecting that.

Speaker 3

So I think what we expect is longer run with these tariffs, maybe they come down some, but still see a pretty high number, which gets back to Neil's comment about us looking at alternate sourcing strategies using other facilities to move in and mitigate the impact of tariffs and ultimately have a much lower cost basis.

Speaker 5

That's perfect. Thank you. And then just kind of dovetailing off of that, what kind of competition are you seeing in finding those alternate sourcing of the supply lines? I gotta imagine kind of everyone has the same plan.

Speaker 2

We haven't seen, let's call it much competition for that. Think we'd set up a lot of these supply lines earlier. So if you go back in time, Trump really introduced tariffs and duties for 2017. So we've been dealing with this for the last eight years or so. So big push on our side is to have supply chain resiliency.

Speaker 2

So I think we've built that in there. Maybe what would be a little different would be the assembly activities that I think that both Lyle and I both mentioned. That's a little new. And again, that's more just to avoid the tariffs again, which to me is ironic is that we added these tariffs and yet we're now pushing manufacturing outside The United States because of them. So I think they're just a terrible trade policy and hopefully we can fix that.

Speaker 5

That's great. And then one more for me if I could. Just thinking about the customers and the buyer strike, any sense finger in the wind, crystal ball question on how long they could hold out, kind of maybe how much track is in front of them before there would be capitulation? Could it be a quarter, two quarters, two years? Not

Speaker 2

really sure. They don't keep, I think over the last few years they've been more lean with inventories. So I could see it slowly, slowly move, but if the price remains high, it's not going be a full capitulation, they're just going to buy the minimum of what they need to get through. But think once there's certainty around where the tariffs are and that they're not moving, yeah, I think they need to get back to business as usual.

Speaker 5

That's great. Thank you very much and good luck in Q2. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Eric Carlson.

Speaker 9

Hey, guys. Good morning.

Speaker 5

Good morning, Eric.

Speaker 9

I had a long list of questions that I kind of crossed off most of them as we went here. I guess, when I think about how you've kind of managed cash over the the last few years and and kind of the outlook here, so gonna generate close to kind of a % of current market cap in cash over 2024 and 2025? And what did you say the net debt level is that currently or as of, I guess, 03/31?

Speaker 3

It's about a 50. So $1.01 48. 1 40 8, I think is the number.

Speaker 9

Okay. +1 48. So basically, the the potential to to get kinda that net debt down to a hundred to a 15 depending on how the year plays out. So current market cap sorry. I'm doing quick math.

Speaker 9

You're I mean, you're basically looking at trading by year end 3.2 to 3.5 times EBITDA with the enterprise value under 300,000,000. Maybe a little context. So 2020, you had negative 20,000,000 of EBITDA and finished the year at 230,000,000 of enterprise value. I'm doing quick math. Twenty twenty one, 20 million positive EBITDA, end of the year with 275,000,000 enterprise value, so not far off what kind of year end looks like, and clearly significantly better.

Speaker 9

So maybe, like, the question would be is, how do you execute buybacks in a meaningful way, without maybe pushing market price too much and taking advantage of this while it lasts? Can you source directly from some of the other large shareholders or the bondholders that still exist? Maybe talk me through execution of the buyback and maybe how that has happened so far.

Speaker 3

Yeah, Eric. It's a great question and it's something that we're definitely focused on. As we've seen since we announced our share buyback, value has moved pretty materially in the market being impacted recently by what's going on with trade and tariff policies and OPEC plus So I think as we think about the way to do that, clearly being in the market could have an upward pressure on our stock price. I think if we as we as we look at that though, we're trading at a pretty significant discount. You highlighted some of those metrics that are out there.

Speaker 3

I think we feel the same way. So there's an opportunity to really move what's going on from a stock price perspective, move the amount of shares we buy back given the current stock price and definitely something that we would love to take advantage of. There'll be some carefulness in what we do, but I would expect us to try to get out of the market and be there, especially when those windows open for us related to our net leverage ratio.

Speaker 2

Yeah, I mean, for our thinking to be north of 25%, again, is our forward free cash flow yield at kind of the midpoint of our guidance. That just seems like a ridiculous number. And so we think that there's a lot of value there. So even if the price were to double, there's still 12.5% free cash flow yield is still would probably put us in the top quartile of peers or higher. So I think the, what's frustrated us is the undervalue.

Speaker 2

And again, we need to get our story out and we've been doing that. We're going to consistently do that. We think there's more and more people that interest. I think if you look at our track record of performance, we've done what we've said we should do. We've outperformed almost every index that we're a part of.

Speaker 2

If you're an investment portfolio manager and you can compare us with the index like LaRussell two thousand, if that's where you're being measured, why wouldn't you be an FET? The value's there, the performance is there and ultimately I think what's really exciting for us is long term, we think there's a lot of growth here as well. So it's a great combination and it's one that we're excited and we're gonna try to buy these shares as many as possible as we can, especially while the price is this cheap.

Speaker 9

Yes, agreed. Then maybe the last thing is in the context of long term, maybe obviously the cure for low prices is low prices and kind of a headwind turning into a tailwind ultimately. I mean, what have you guys learned? I know, like, when when we, kinda came into 2023, built working capital a little bit in 2023. I mean, how how have you guys changed from from as headwinds turn to tailwinds and thinking about managing cash, really kinda hammering home this return of capital story, keeping leverage low?

Speaker 9

Maybe just walk me through kind of as we turn the corner, which will ultimately happen. I mean, how have you guys changed your mindset or as you plan for that and think about that, maybe just some color would be helpful.

Speaker 2

Yeah, no, I think if you go back to our origins where we began, I think, as a small cap company in a growing industry, we sought to grow EBITDA. That was the focus. That's been the focus of our careers for many years. I think as we got into this cycle and we saw changes, we want to be cash focused. We ultimately want to generate free cash flow.

Speaker 2

So if the cycle begins to turn and we start to see growth, we're going to have a high bar of returns for each of our businesses. And we know we can achieve it, but we want to be turning our working capital very quickly. And so we think about key measures, ones that we have internally, our incremental return on incremental working capital, we want to get that, whatever working capital we add in a year, we want to have that back in cash. And so that's going to be a focus on the turn. Our best businesses are going to get the capital.

Speaker 2

Our ones that don't achieve those results, they're not going to. And so that we're going to, we want to utilize our working capital, which again is our biggest use of cash. We want to do it in the most efficient way possible.

Speaker 9

That's helpful. And then maybe the last thing on cash would be, and then kinda last question would be, I know we've seen a few of the sale leaseback transactions over the last few years. Is there anything out there potentially that could be a one off cash generator really set you below that kind of net leverage showing open up big window or to be determined? Just curious if there's anything that you could see in the short term to generate kind of a one time cash flow.

Speaker 3

Yeah, Eric, the teams have done a really good job over the last few years of turning our real estate, our dirt into capital that we could redeploy and use and that's been very good. The amount of real estate that we have left is getting really pretty thin as far as what's available. And that's good news. We've now gotten our cash redeployed, our capital redeployed. So definitely things that we look at is, are all of our assets generating appropriate returns and to the extent that they're not.

Speaker 3

It's a question that we ask ourselves is should we monetize that and be able to put that cash to a more high return use. So definitely something we look at and we'll keep you updated if something pops loose.

Speaker 9

Thanks guys, appreciate it.

Speaker 7

Thanks Eric.

Operator

Thank you. At this time, I would now like to turn the conference back over to Neil Lux for closing remarks.

Speaker 2

Thanks Gigi, and thank you everyone for your support and participation on today's call. We look forward to our next meeting at the July to discuss our second quarter twenty twenty five results.

Operator

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

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Earnings Conference Call
Forum Energy Technologies Q1 2025
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