Air Products and Chemicals Q3 2025 Earnings Report

Air Products and Chemicals EPS Results

• Actual EPS: $3.09
• Consensus EPS: $2.99
• Beat/Miss: Beat by +$0.10
• One Year Ago EPS: $3.20

Air Products and Chemicals Revenue Results

• Actual Revenue: $3.02 billion
• Expected Revenue: $2.95 billion
• Beat/Miss: Beat by +$75.18 million
• YoY Revenue Growth: +1.20%

Air Products and Chemicals Announcement Details

• Quarter: Q3 2025
• Date: 7/31/2025
• Time: Before Market Opens
• Conference Call Date: Thursday, July 31, 2025
• Conference Call Time: 8:00AM ET

Air Products and Chemicals (NYSE:APD) provides atmospheric gases, process and specialty gases, equipment, and related services in the Americas, Asia, Europe, the Middle East, India, and internationally. The company produces atmospheric gases, including oxygen, nitrogen, and argon; process gases, such as hydrogen, helium, carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide, and syngas; and specialty gases for customers in various industries, including refining, chemical, manufacturing, electronics, energy production, medical, food, and metals. It also designs and manufactures equipment for air separation, hydrocarbon recovery and purification, natural gas liquefaction, and liquid helium and liquid hydrogen transport and storage. The company was founded in 1940 and is headquartered in Allentown, Pennsylvania.

Air Products and Chemicals Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Key Takeaways

• Positive Sentiment: Air Products reported third-quarter adjusted EPS of $3.09, beating the upper end of guidance and last year’s comparable results ex-LNG business sale, driven by strong base business performance and productivity gains.
• Positive Sentiment: The global cost reduction plan is on track to deliver $185–195 million in annual savings through portfolio optimization, lean SG&A and AI-driven digital initiatives.
• Positive Sentiment: The company unveiled a five-year roadmap targeting high single-digit adjusted EPS growth from FY 2026, a 30% operating margin and mid-to-high-teens ROCE by 2030 while keeping leverage steady.
• Negative Sentiment: Sales volumes fell by 4% year-over-year in Q3 due to the LNG divestiture, lower helium demand and project exits, partially offset by pricing actions and on-site volume gains.
• Neutral Sentiment: Fiscal 2025 adjusted EPS guidance was maintained at $11.90–$12.10 with capex of ~$5 billion, reflecting a cautious outlook amid global economic uncertainties.

Presentation

[Eric Guter, VP - IR at Air Products and Chemicals]

Now I'm pleased to turn the call over to Eduardo.

[Eduardo Menezes, CEO & Director at Air Products and Chemicals]

Thank you, Eric. This is Eduardo Menezes. Thank you for joining us. Please turn to Slide three. The Air Products team delivered solid fiscal third quarter results.

[Eduardo Menezes, CEO & Director at Air Products and Chemicals]

Our adjusted earnings per share of $3.09 exceeded our guidance and were higher than last year on a comparable basis, excluding the impact of the LNG business sales. We saw positive base business results despite significant global heating headwinds and continue to see positive cost savings across the organization from our productivity actions. Air Products has a solid core industrial gas business with significant potential. The results this quarter shows the strength and resilience of our base business. I'm confident we can continue to improve margins and unlock value through systematic cost productivity, pricing, and operational excellence.

[Eduardo Menezes, CEO & Director at Air Products and Chemicals]

Let me share some examples of how we are executing our productivity commitments. We continue to review and optimize our portfolio. The previously announced global cost reduction plan remains on track and will generate significant savings. Once all actions under the plan are fully executed, we expect to realize annual savings of 185 to $195,000,000. The product has the lowest s g and a as a percentage of sales in the industry, and we are continuing to improve on this metric.

[Eduardo Menezes, CEO & Director at Air Products and Chemicals]

We are investing to bring additional AI and digital transformation tools to the majority of our employees for use into their day to day work. I expect the combination of their grassroots projects and large ongoing AI corporate initiatives in areas like energy management will significantly change the way we work and open many new productivity opportunities for AirPods. We are committed to project execution and capital discipline. We expect to finalize the current energy transition projects in line with our previous guidance and to continue investing growth to build density in our core industrial gas business. We intend to take full advantage of our leading on-site positions in hydrogen and electronics, always through disciplined capital allocation.

[Eduardo Menezes, CEO & Director at Air Products and Chemicals]

Now please turn to slide four. We presented this slide for the first time last quarter, and I thought it would be helpful to talk about it one more time. This is Air Products' five year road map to unlock our earnings potential. We have a strong team running the core business, and I'm confident all our leaders are personally committed to take Air Products to this journey. Our objective for the next five years is starting in fiscal year twenty twenty six is to consistently achieve high single digit or better adjusted EPS growth rate while maintaining or reducing our financial leverage.

[Eduardo Menezes, CEO & Director at Air Products and Chemicals]

By doing that and maintaining the capital discipline I mentioned a few times during this presentation, we should achieve operating margins of 30% and ROCE in the mid to high teens by 2030. Now I will turn it over to Melissa to discuss our quarterly results. Melissa?

[Melissa Schaeffer, EVP & CFO at Air Products and Chemicals]

Thank you, Eduardo, and good morning, everyone. Please turn to slide six to review our results. Our third quarter adjusted earnings per share of $3.09 exceeded the upper end of our guidance of $2.9 to $3 Compared to last year, sales volume was down 4%, mainly due to the sale of the LNG business last year, lower helium demand and project exits, but partially offset by favorable on-site across the region. The sale of the LNG business drove volume lower 2%. Total company price was up 1%, which equates to a 2% improvement for the merchant business.

[Melissa Schaeffer, EVP & CFO at Air Products and Chemicals]

Adjusted operating income was unchanged as strong base business performance, including continued pricing strength in non helium products across all regions, was largely offset by the sale of the LNG business and exited projects. Adjusted operating margin was flat, but improved about 300 basis points sequentially due to favorable volume and productivity improvements. Now please turn to Slide seven for the details of our third quarter earnings per share. Third quarter adjusted earnings per share of $3.09 decreased $0.11 from prior year. This was negatively impacted by $0.14 from the sale of LNG business and $0.12 impact from project exits.

[Melissa Schaeffer, EVP & CFO at Air Products and Chemicals]

Without these headwinds, EPS would have improved $0.15 versus prior year. Volume added $06 better fitting from strong on-site volume. This volume growth was partially offset by lower helium demand and project exits in The Americas. Price was positive $05 driven by strong non helium pricing actions across all regions. Costs were 3¢ favorable due to productivity and lower maintenance, partially offset by higher depreciation and inflation.

[Melissa Schaeffer, EVP & CFO at Air Products and Chemicals]

The tax rate this quarter was was 5¢ unfavorable compared to last year, which benefit from several onetime items. Interest expense was $02 higher as project exits reduced the interest eligible for capitalization. Now please turn to Slide number eight for an update of our fiscal twenty twenty five guidance. Our fiscal full year adjusted earnings per share guidance is now in the range of $11.90 to $12.10, keeping the midpoint unchanged at $12. We remain cautious in our outlook, recognizing the significant economic uncertainties around the world.

[Melissa Schaeffer, EVP & CFO at Air Products and Chemicals]

Our guidance for capital expenditures stays at approximately $5,000,000,000 for the year. We've included additional details on the segment results in the appendix section. Now we will turn the call over for questions. Operator?

[Operator]

Thank you. If you would like to ask a question, please signal by pressing star one on your telephone keypad. If you are using a speakerphone, please make sure your mute function is turned off to allow your signal to reach our equipment. Again, please press star one to ask a question. We'll call for just a moment. We'll go first to John Roberts with Mizuho.

[John Roberts, Managing Director at Mizuho Financial Group]

Thank you. Could you give us an update on the plan to use third parties at Darrow for both ammonia and the carbon capturing

[Eduardo Menezes, CEO & Director at Air Products and Chemicals]

Hi, John. Good morning. This is Eduardo.

[Eduardo Menezes, CEO & Director at Air Products and Chemicals]

Yeah. We we as we said last quarter, we are working to get this this partnership done by the end of the current year. So, you know, we're still working on that. You know, so three months later, I would say that we're reasonably optimistic we'll get there. I I've seen some reports this quarter for other blue ammonia projects in the in the Gulf Coast.

[Eduardo Menezes, CEO & Director at Air Products and Chemicals]

And if you look at this report, you look at the amount of the the the numbers that they published in terms of CapEx for the size of the plants they they are publishing. Our numbers, I believe, we are a little better in terms of unit of CapEx for for for capacity, and we expect to do that because we have a a larger scale. So I think that validates the the the numbers that we we presented in terms of the the competitiveness of our project in terms of CapEx. And I I also saw a report about comparing the the cost of blue ammonia in the Gulf Coast with gray ammonia in Europe also, you know, ratifying the the point that we're making that The US will be very competitive. So the fundamentals of the project remains very strong and and now it's a question of, you know, finding the the right partnership, finding the the right agreements, and negotiating these agreements will which will, you know, takes takes a little time.

[Eduardo Menezes, CEO & Director at Air Products and Chemicals]

So that's where we are. We have a dedicated team working on that and participating personally in a in a lot of these meetings. And and, you know, when we have more information that we can share with you, we'll we'll do that.

[John Roberts, Managing Director at Mizuho Financial Group]

Alright. Thank you.

[Operator]

We'll go next to Jeff Zekauskas with JPMorgan.

[Jeffrey Zekauskas, Analyst at JP Morgan]

Thanks very much. A a two part question. Your average prices year over year were up 1%. If you took out the drag from helium, how much would your average prices have been up? And then secondly, the in the past, Air Products used to say that it could dissociate hydrogen from ammonia with a 10% loss.

[Jeffrey Zekauskas, Analyst at JP Morgan]

Is that a claim that Air Products still wants to make, or is the dissociation characteristics different? And do you have to build an infrastructure in Europe in order to fulfill the Total contract in 02/1930?

[Eduardo Menezes, CEO & Director at Air Products and Chemicals]

Okay. Okay, Jeff. The the the first question, I'll I'll ask Melissa to to talk about that.

[Eduardo Menezes, CEO & Director at Air Products and Chemicals]

We we normally don't disclose either numbers, but we can probably give you an idea of the total impact for the year for us in in terms of here. On the on the second question, yeah, the dissociation, we are we are working, you know, with our r and d organization engineering designing this this plan. At this point, you know, if if and when we we go forward with any project in Europe to dissociate ammonia, they the the idea is to use products on technology for that. And at this point, I believe that we we still have the same goal in terms of yield that that we mentioned on 10% losses. You know?

[Eduardo Menezes, CEO & Director at Air Products and Chemicals]

It's it's always a question of capital inefficiency, you know, on how much you wanna invest to improve your efficiency, and that's exactly where we are. But we're testing a lot of different catalysts and different configurations and and trying to be ready to execute these projects when the volumes will become offline. As I as I mentioned before, you know, all these these projects in Europe, they are a function of the final regulation. The EU has its own umbrella regulation, let's put this way, that each EU member has to to develop and adopt this or or they call it transposed to law. This is a little late.

[Eduardo Menezes, CEO & Director at Air Products and Chemicals]

It was supposed to be done a few months ago, but there are several brackets in in several jurisdictions where they, you know, they they they present what we are trying to do with the EU legislation and we are and we and our potential customers and and Total, we are all following these these regulations to decide where we we should build this project. So that's where we are on the on the on the money association side, and I'll turn to Melissa to talk about the heating impact.

[Melissa Schaeffer, EVP & CFO at Air Products and Chemicals]

Sure. Thanks, Eduardo. Thanks for the question, Jeff. So volume and price do continue to fall across the regions. Let me talk about helium as a whole instead of pricing for for obvious reasons.

[Melissa Schaeffer, EVP & CFO at Air Products and Chemicals]

So as an order of magnitude for the quarter, helium EPS contributions are down about 4% versus prior year. For the full year, we're anticipating around a 55 to 60¢ headwind from EPS, which, again, is about four per four to 5%. So, obviously, the teams are actively working to balance pricing and volumes to maximize profitability during this down cycle, but it does continue to be a headwind.

[Jeffrey Zekauskas, Analyst at JP Morgan]

Thank you.

[Operator]

We'll go next to John McNulty with BMO Capital Markets.

[John McNulty, MD - Chemicals Analyst at BMO Capital Markets]

Yeah. Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. Maybe digging in a little bit more into the I believe you said it was a $175,185,000,000 dollars cost opportunities. I guess two questions around that.

[John McNulty, MD - Chemicals Analyst at BMO Capital Markets]

One, is that in addition to the $100,000,000 opportunity that you would, that Air Products had previously outlined and expected to come in a bit this year and a bit next year? And then can you speak to the heavy lifting of it? It sounds like, you know, a lot of it's gonna be around digital and energy management. And how long or how how much effort is this gonna take to is it just kind of a simple drop in, or or is there some real heavy lifting here?

[Melissa Schaeffer, EVP & CFO at Air Products and Chemicals]

Yeah. So thanks. I will take that question. So let's first talk about the productivity actions we talked about. So this is a a total picture of the activity that we've been talking about for the last couple of years.

[Melissa Schaeffer, EVP & CFO at Air Products and Chemicals]

So we continue to execute on productivity actions. This obviously includes the rightsizing of the organization. This journey will continue as we execute the major projects and reduce our headcount as those projects start to be reduced. Through our rightsizing actions over the last couple of years, we have committed to take about 10% of our headcount out. We're about 60% complete as of the end of this quarter.

[Melissa Schaeffer, EVP & CFO at Air Products and Chemicals]

In some in order of magnitude, in FY twenty five, we realized about a 40¢ EPS cost savings versus what was prior to the program initiation and around 25¢ EPS cost savings versus prior year in f y twenty four. Now associated to the digital energy that Eduardo talked about, this is a program that we we are working on, and there will be many programs from an AI perspective that we will be rolling out. As we continue to progress on those, we obviously will be able to update you. But but the vast majority of the cost savings we talked about was really associated to the headcount and productivity actions we had previously announced.

[Eduardo Menezes, CEO & Director at Air Products and Chemicals]

Yeah. This this is on top of that, things that we're working for the future after this wave of this initial productivity projects.

[John McNulty, MD - Chemicals Analyst at BMO Capital Markets]

Got it. Thanks very much for the color.

[Operator]

We'll go next to Vincent Andrews with Morgan Stanley.

[Steven Haynes, VP - Equity Research at Morgan Stanley]

This is Steve Haynes on for Vincent. I wanted to ask a question on the volume performance in Americas. Would it be possible to just get a bit more color on the 6% decline there? I guess, how that compared to your original expectation? I guess, if you could just break it out between, you know, base volumes versus any any impact from, I guess, some of the the project exits. Thank you.

[Melissa Schaeffer, EVP & CFO at Air Products and Chemicals]

Yes. Thanks for the question. So from the Americas volume perspective, we actually had strong on-site volumes in our stand alone assets and the Gulf Coast Tyco. The entire amount of the downturn was largely associated to two things. First, the exited project of World Energy and the prior year contribution and second, really largely helium demand.

[Melissa Schaeffer, EVP & CFO at Air Products and Chemicals]

We did see improvements in our overall merchant business outside of the helium demand. So again, underlying strong volumes across our on-site and merchants outside of world energy and the demand in helium.

[Operator]

Our next question comes from the line of Josh Spector with UBS.

[Josh Spector, Executive Director - Chemicals Equity Research at UBS Group]

I actually wanted to follow-up on that same question. So I guess, if World Energy is the main project exit, I don't know what percent we should assume that is as volume declines. I guess the two pieces there that should we expect kind of a 2%, 3% volume headwind over the next two to three quarters as a result of that? And is there any income associated with that? Or is this just a top line change?

[Melissa Schaeffer, EVP & CFO at Air Products and Chemicals]

So yes. Thanks for the question. So last year, during this quarter, we had contributions from World Energy of about 24,000,000 That was a onetime item, and we do not expect this headwind to continue moving forward.

[Josh Spector, Executive Director - Chemicals Equity Research at UBS Group]

That's clear enough. I'll leave it there. Thank you.

[Melissa Schaeffer, EVP & CFO at Air Products and Chemicals]

Thank you.

[Operator]

We'll go next to Mike Sison with Wells Fargo.

[Michael Sison, Managing Director at Wells Fargo Securities]

Hey. Good morning. Nice quarter. In terms of the core business, Eduardo, you mentioned, I think, the last call that you still want to invest, you know, kind of $1,500,000,000 in in low risk projects, you know, for the core business. Have any update there?

[Michael Sison, Managing Director at Wells Fargo Securities]

You know, I haven't seen any announcements. How's bidding activity going with that? And do you think as we head into '26, that's something that you can you can sort of hit as a as a goal?

[Eduardo Menezes, CEO & Director at Air Products and Chemicals]

Yeah. We we we continue to to see a lot of projectivities on on small plants.

[Eduardo Menezes, CEO & Director at Air Products and Chemicals]

Those are normally not announcements that we make because, you know, the the the size of the projects. I I will probably for for the next quarter try to summarize what we we did for the year and what we expect in in following years. So you guys can have a better idea of how much of of this one 1 to 1 and a half billion dollars goes to to smaller plants. In terms of larger size plants, we continue to see a lot of activity for electronics in Asia. We are building a lot of plants currently in in Taiwan.

[Eduardo Menezes, CEO & Director at Air Products and Chemicals]

We see some activities still in China and in in South Korea. So that's an area that is moving forward. We always have some projects in the West, you know, considering our our large base here to to replace or to increase our our capacity in both hydrogen and air circulation. So that continues to to to do okay. And and, again, this is the the core of our business.

[Eduardo Menezes, CEO & Director at Air Products and Chemicals]

This is the business that our policy started as a company, and we can we we expect that to to pick up and and to increase in the in the next years. I I you know, as you know, this is my I'm finishing my first six months in the company and traveling around and and looking to go into different locations and in different countries. And I would say that, you know, when you go to Asia and see the capabilities that we have in terms of cryogenic equipment manufacturing and how efficient we are in in these areas and how can we bring this equipment all over the globe and and and be competitive. I think Air Products is in a in a very strong position. It's probably one of the or or the best pursuing that I ever seen in my career, and and I I intend to take full advantage of that.

[Michael Sison, Managing Director at Wells Fargo Securities]

Great. Thank you.

[Operator]

We'll go next to Patrick Cunningham with Citi.

[Patrick Cunningham, VP & Senior Analyst at Citi]

Hi. Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. Eduardo, you alluded to some of the larger project announcements in The Gulf Coast for DuoMoia. Does this change the dynamic at all for Air Products?

[Patrick Cunningham, VP & Senior Analyst at Citi]

I know you mentioned Darrow is cost competitive, but are there now fewer logical equity partners for you and the market is well served, or do you see it differently?

[Eduardo Menezes, CEO & Director at Air Products and Chemicals]

Well, we'll see. I think I think the the ammonia market is a large market, so we have other people being interested on that. You know, there is some push stronger push now for for clean ammonia, especially in the Far East, you know, some some bids coming out from the power producers in in Japan and Korea looking for for clean ammonia. So I think the demand will be there.

[Eduardo Menezes, CEO & Director at Air Products and Chemicals]

And on top of that, as I mentioned, I I I strongly believe that blue ammonia from The US Gulf Coast will be very competitive in Europe, and and I think there is room for for our projects and probably few more projects.

[Patrick Cunningham, VP & Senior Analyst at Citi]

Thank you.

[Operator]

We'll go next to Matthew Deal with Bank of America.

[Matthew Deyoe, Senior Equity Research Analyst at Bank of America]

Thank you. On slide four, just look. Within the improve the core slash refocus and then kind of achieve potential. Right? So you have Neom as kind of a key driver in 2030 for offsetting underperforming projects.

[Matthew Deyoe, Senior Equity Research Analyst at Bank of America]

And I assume a decent amount of that is the Total agreement starting in 02/1930. But Neoma is expected to start up in 2027, so I'm just wondering why that is more of a consideration for the 2030 profile.

[Eduardo Menezes, CEO & Director at Air Products and Chemicals]

Yeah. The 2030 number comes more from Xero than than Neon. So, you know, Neon, we also expect the the contract that you mentioned to to come online in 2030.

[Eduardo Menezes, CEO & Director at Air Products and Chemicals]

As I said before, you know, Neon continues to to progress well. We expect to start up in 2027, and we are working as well on placing the product for, you know, initially as as green ammonia and the green hydrogen will need to wait for the regulation, you know, to to follow. So that's where we are. We are also in the same way we're working to to commercialize and finding partners for Dell. We're working also in in the commercializing the green ammonia from NEON starting 2027.

[Operator]

We'll go next to Chris Parkinson with Wolfe Research.

[Christopher Parkinson, Managing Director at Wolfe Research, LLC]

Great. Thank you so much for taking my question. Eduardo, you laid out a helpful, you know, breakdown of CapEx, a few months ago and just your initial thoughts in terms of all the bars and the projects and how you're thinking about things in the future. I realize it's only been a few months, but is there any update on how we should be thinking about the progress of hitting those targets? It seems like the buyback community is focusing on getting CapEx somewhere down to the mid-3s.

[Christopher Parkinson, Managing Director at Wolfe Research, LLC]

Just if there's any thought process there as well as uses for cash in terms of balance sheet and eventually buybacks. Just any change of thought process for the last know, couple weeks or months? Thank you so much.

[Eduardo Menezes, CEO & Director at Air Products and Chemicals]

Thank you, Greg. No.

[Eduardo Menezes, CEO & Director at Air Products and Chemicals]

No. No major updates on that. We we continue to follow our you know, what we said before that our intent is to be around cash neutral for the last the next three years. So make sure that, you know, we, of course, will will maintain our dividends, but we need to balance our, you know, cash sources of cash users and and, you know, we expect to be able to do that in the next three years. How well we'll do that will better mind, you know, other users that we can do with the cash, like like, buy back shares.

[Eduardo Menezes, CEO & Director at Air Products and Chemicals]

But at this point, we, you know, we've first, we're trying to walk before we run. So the the the, you know, the priority is to make sure that our CapEx for 26, 27, 28 matches, you know, the the cash generation that we have.

[Christopher Parkinson, Managing Director at Wolfe Research, LLC]

Thank you.

[Operator]

We'll go next to Duffy Stitcher with Goldman Sachs.

[Duffy Fischer, Equity Research Analyst - U.S. Chemicals at Goldman Sachs]

Yes. Good morning, guys. And and thanks for the details on on helium for this year. But just on that subject in water, you've prepped helium for a lot of years. How do you see the cycle for helium playing out over the next couple of years?

[Duffy Fischer, Equity Research Analyst - U.S. Chemicals at Goldman Sachs]

How much just at the current levels, when do we anniversary the level we're at today? Like how much is the headwind next year? And do you think this is still kind of a multiyear down cycle, or can we stabilize as we get into 2026?

[Eduardo Menezes, CEO & Director at Air Products and Chemicals]

Yeah. We we we have been debating that a lot in terms of as you can imagine this you know, the heating market, you know, the the the main question is is did another cycle or is structural change and and what happened in the market in next in the next few in the last years and what will happen in the future.

[Eduardo Menezes, CEO & Director at Air Products and Chemicals]

Right? So we had a few significant changes in the market. One of them was that the BLM that used to be the the largest source and have the capability of, you know, managing volume because they have the storage for for heating. The BLM is becoming less and less of a factor in the market. In fact, it's very minor now.

[Eduardo Menezes, CEO & Director at Air Products and Chemicals]

And and most of the heating sources now are connected to, you know, a natural gas processing and LNG plants. And you saw an increase in the in the in the supply side. And in the main side, we we've we've seen some, you know, diversification with new players in the industrial gas space. And and and that is, you know, changing the the the, you know, the the way the market operates for the last the the the last few years. For the next years, you know, I I I still believe that the nature of the heating market will not gonna change.

[Eduardo Menezes, CEO & Director at Air Products and Chemicals]

At some point, you're gonna have a crisis. You're gonna have, you know, a a change in in in LNG demand. You're gonna have a a war closing plant, a mechanical failure, and and and you're gonna see, you know, the the pendulum going the other way in the in the in the market. And I think products, I I said before, products try to be a very responsible player in this market. We made an investment on a cabin a few years ago, understanding that we need to have a little more of wiggle room to to manage our our balance of heating.

[Eduardo Menezes, CEO & Director at Air Products and Chemicals]

I think that, you know, others are are investing now. I think that's that's, you know, the positive sign for the market. And and we'll see, you know, the the some changes in the future. One point that I I I think you need to take in consideration is that, you know, the the price increases and and decreases in this market takes a little time to to percolate all the way in the chain to get to the to the suppliers. But I think that you'll start to see that in this year, and you'll probably continue to see that in the next year.

[Eduardo Menezes, CEO & Director at Air Products and Chemicals]

So I expect that going forward, you know, the impact for in terms of margin are gonna be a little less dramatic for for all the the industrial gas companies because, you know, you're gonna get also a reduction on the on the cost of the heating that we purchased from from the manufacturer. So it's it's it's not an easy situation. I I I think we are managing that well. The product is still making, you know, a lot a higher margin than we were making before COVID with, you know, a much lower volume. And and I think the team has been playing this well, managing the the volumes in the cabin.

[Eduardo Menezes, CEO & Director at Air Products and Chemicals]

But at some point, you know, we we need to to make sure we stabilize that and reuse these volumes, and and we'll we'll pull the trigger when we when we see the right moment for that.

[Duffy Fischer, Equity Research Analyst - U.S. Chemicals at Goldman Sachs]

Perfect. Thank you for that.

[Operator]

We'll go next to Kevin McCarthy with Vertical Research Partners.

[Kevin McCarthy, Partner at Vertical Research Partners]

Yes. Thank you, and good morning. Eduardo, you've set forth a long term return on capital employed goal in the mid to high teens. And I was wondering if you could speak to the trajectory from today's level of 10% to that goal. Obviously, there's some short term friction or volatility as you reshape the portfolio.

[Kevin McCarthy, Partner at Vertical Research Partners]

But when do you think we might turn the corner? How might you rank order the most important drivers to get those returns higher over the next several years?

[Eduardo Menezes, CEO & Director at Air Products and Chemicals]

Thank you, Kevin. I'll I'll Melissa to take this question. I'll I'll make a comment at the end. Go ahead.

[Melissa Schaeffer, EVP & CFO at Air Products and Chemicals]

Sure.

[Melissa Schaeffer, EVP & CFO at Air Products and Chemicals]

Absolutely. No. Thank you, Eduardo, and thanks, Kevin, for the question. So as you saw this quarter, our ROC is around 11.1%, which is down versus prior quarter. This is largely the significant construction process that we have.

[Melissa Schaeffer, EVP & CFO at Air Products and Chemicals]

So ex Neon ex Neon, obviously, that would improve greatly. So we did see a a fourth quarter trailing after tax return that went down a little bit due to headwinds from helium and our canceled projects. That was coupled, obviously, with higher debt and lower deferred income tax driven by our canceled projects. So that's providing some of the headwinds. Without CIT and cash, our ROC actual our ROC would actually be up about 500 basis points.

[Melissa Schaeffer, EVP & CFO at Air Products and Chemicals]

So as we see the CIP reduced and our cash balance is obviously increased as we become more disciplined on our capital allocation, our ROC will improve. We've given you the forecast over the next five years. I fully anticipate that we should be able to meet and beat that. And as I said, the reduction and the capital outlay will will help that greatly.

[Eduardo Menezes, CEO & Director at Air Products and Chemicals]

Yeah. So so a lot of influence from construction progress on the numbers. A little complicated accounting here because we're consolidating the owner a 100% at this point. That will be the consolidated start up, but Melissa and the team have, you know, calculations in the background and, you know, we are, you know, pushing hard to get to this. I'll see by, you know, for to to meet you by by 02/1930.

[Operator]

We'll go next to Lawrence Alexander with Jefferies.

[Dan Rizzo, SVP at Jefferies]

Hi. This is Dan Rizwan for Lawrence. In your opening remarks, you mentioned inflation

[Dan Rizzo, SVP at Jefferies]

I was just wondering what exactly that is and what you expect going forward in terms of costs?

[Eduardo Menezes, CEO & Director at Air Products and Chemicals]

We we we continue to see inflation all over. As as we all know, the the situation of tariffs is not very clear to to say the least. We, you know, we're trying to manage that the best we the best way we can. It is always a a function of how well we also manage our pricing. So you you have just to to stay ahead in the rates between price and inflation, and and that's a battle that we we we we fight every day.

[Eduardo Menezes, CEO & Director at Air Products and Chemicals]

But inflation has been a concern. The tariffs will impact at at some point, you know, more than than one we expect. Our business is, you know, directly affected that much, but our our customers are and sometimes the whole suppliers are, and that's the that's the the the source of inflation we see.

[Dan Rizzo, SVP at Jefferies]

K.

[Operator]

We'll go next to James Cooper with Bernstein.

[James Hooper, Vice President at AB Bernstein]

Good morning. And thank you very much for taking my question. I think we we've touched on on the M and Barrow, but can we have an update on the other underperforming projects in Edmonton, Rotterdam, Arizona? And these are meant to come online in the next couple of years. Is there any way that these can be delayed?

[James Hooper, Vice President at AB Bernstein]

Or do you think those you know, should you not be able to get get the demand or offtake? Or these does it date set? Thank you.

[Eduardo Menezes, CEO & Director at Air Products and Chemicals]

Yeah. These these are all projects that have schedules, you know, for three years or more. So not a lot of things change in in three months.

[Eduardo Menezes, CEO & Director at Air Products and Chemicals]

So, you know, the our our forecast in terms of capital and and schedule are still the same that we provided you next quarter. So if there are changes, we'll we'll come back to you. But at this point, you know, what we presented before is exactly where we are in terms of CapEx and schedule.

[Melissa Schaeffer, EVP & CFO at Air Products and Chemicals]

And one incremental comment is the projects that you talked about, the Edmonton project and our our assets in Rotterdam, those are under, pinned by by customers. So that that those are a little bit of a different flavor than our Neon and, Louisiana projects.

[Operator]

This concludes the question and answer portion of today's call. At this time, I would like to turn the call back over to Eduardo for any additional or closing remarks.

[Eduardo Menezes, CEO & Director at Air Products and Chemicals]

Thank you. I would like to, again, thank everyone for joining our call today. We appreciate your interest in our products, and we look forward to discussing our results with you again next quarter. All the best, and have a great day. Thank you.

[Operator]

This concludes today's call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

Participants

Executives

• Eric Guter, VP - IR
• Eduardo Menezes, CEO & Director
• Melissa Schaeffer, EVP & CFO

Analysts

• John Roberts, Managing Director at Mizuho Financial Group
• Jeffrey Zekauskas, Analyst at JP Morgan
• John McNulty, MD - Chemicals Analyst at BMO Capital Markets
• Steven Haynes, VP - Equity Research at Morgan Stanley
• Josh Spector, Executive Director - Chemicals Equity Research at UBS Group
• Michael Sison, Managing Director at Wells Fargo Securities
• Patrick Cunningham, VP & Senior Analyst at Citi
• Matthew Deyoe, Senior Equity Research Analyst at Bank of America
• Christopher Parkinson, Managing Director at Wolfe Research, LLC
• Duffy Fischer, Equity Research Analyst - U.S. Chemicals at Goldman Sachs
• Kevin McCarthy, Partner at Vertical Research Partners
• Dan Rizzo, SVP at Jefferies
• James Hooper, Vice President at AB Bernstein