Lincoln Educational Services Q2 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
August 11, 2025

Key Takeaways

  • Positive Sentiment: Second quarter delivered 22% student start growth, 15% revenue growth, and a 68% increase in consolidated adjusted EBITDA, prompting an upward revision to full-year 2025 guidance.
  • Positive Sentiment: New and relocated campuses outperformed expectations—East Point hit 18-month enrollment targets at the 36-month mark, and Nashville’s rebranded Auto Diesel College will add electrical and HVAC programs in October.
  • Positive Sentiment: The Lincoln 10.0 hybrid teaching model drove instructional, space, and organizational efficiencies, including a 13% reduction in marketing cost per start and lower bad debt expense as a percentage of revenue.
  • Negative Sentiment: Healthcare and other professional programs saw an 8% decline in starts due to a temporary pause at the Paramus nursing campus and discontinuation of underperforming offerings, prompting targeted turnaround initiatives.
  • Neutral Sentiment: Liquidity remains strong at $63.7 million, though Title IV drawdown delays shifted disbursements into Q3, with management expecting catch-up cash collections in the second half of the year.
AI Generated. May Contain Errors.
Earnings Conference Call
Lincoln Educational Services Q2 2025
00:00 / 00:00

There are 9 speakers on the call.

Operator

Good day and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Lincoln Educational Services Second Quarter twenty twenty five Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode. After the speakers' presentation, there will be a question and answer session. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.

Operator

I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Michael Polivio. Please go ahead.

Speaker 1

Thank you, Gigi. Good morning, everyone. Before the market opened today, Lincoln Educational Services issued a news release reporting financial results for the second quarter ended 06/30/2025, as well as recent corporate developments. The release is available on the Investor Relations portion of the company's corporate website at www.lucentech.edu. Joining us today on the call are Scott Shaw, President and CEO and Brian Myers, Chief Financial Officer.

Speaker 1

Today's call is being recorded and is being broadcast live on the company's website. A replay of the call will be archived on the company's website. Statements made by Lincoln's management on today's call regarding the company's business that are not historical facts may be forward looking statements as terms identified in federal securities laws. Awards may, will, expect, believe, anticipate, project, plan, intend, estimate, and continue, as well as similar expressions are intended to identify forward looking statements. Forward looking statements should not be read as a guarantee of future performance.

Speaker 1

The company cautions you that these statements reflect certain expectations about the company's future performance or events and are subject to a number of uncertainties, risks, and other influences, many of which are beyond the company's control and may influence the accuracy of the statement and projection upon which the segmented statements are based. Factors that may affect the company's results include, but are not limited to, the risks and uncertainties discussed in the Risk Factors section of the annual report on Form 10 ks and in the quarterly report on Form 10 Q filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Forward looking statements are based on information available at the time those statements are made and management's good faith belief as of the time with respect to future events. All forward looking statements are qualified in their entirety by the cautionary statement, and Lincoln undertakes no obligation to publicly revise or update any forward looking statement, either as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise after the date thereof. One other housekeeping matter.

Speaker 1

During the Q and A portion of the call today, we would ask questioners to limit themselves to two questions and then requeue to ask any additional questions. In advance, we thank you for your cooperation. Now, I'd to turn the call over to Scott Shaw, President and CEO of Lincoln Educational Services. Scott, please go ahead.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Michael, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today for our review of Lincoln's continued operational and financial momentum during the second quarter, which led to nearly 22% student start growth and about 15% revenue growth from our current operations, as well as a 68% increase in consolidated adjusted EBITDA over last year's second quarter. As a result of this performance, which follows an equally impressive first quarter as well as current operating trends, we are increasing our guidance for the full fiscal year as well as expanding some of our growth initiatives to capitalize on the growing demand for high value career focused skills training. Many factors are contributing to our dynamic top and bottom line growth, including on the macro level, the continued increased interest in skilled trade training as an alternative to the traditional four year college education, a factor that we believe will be further stimulated by recent federal government actions impacting student loans. At the same time, our strategies and investments have positioned Lincoln to capitalize on market demand.

Speaker 2

For instance, we are focused on training our students for rewarding careers in fields where there is a chronic shortage of skilled employees, thus helping to fill the growth inhibiting skills gap experienced by employers. Electrical, HVAC, automotive technician, welding and nursing careers offer lifetime employment opportunities, as well as professional advancement potential. Our team is doing an excellent job executing our growth plan. Our financial performance during the 2025 reflects increasing returns from our investments in the Lincoln ten point zero hybrid teaching model, student start outperformance at our new and relocated campuses, execution of our program replication strategy at existing campuses, successful high school student initiatives, expanding corporate partnership relationships, and increased marketing efficiencies. Lincoln ten point zero is contributing to our start growth by providing flexibility to our students who often need to balance work and life while earning their certificate or degree.

Speaker 2

We've achieved this flexibility by combining hands on learning at campus facilities with a component of classroom work delivered through online instruction, which reduces the time needed to complete many of our curriculums and accelerates our graduates to their highly rewarding careers. We continue to realize instructional efficiencies, space efficiencies, and organizational productivity through Lincoln ten point zero, and Brian Walsh will provide more details on the leverage we achieved from our operating expenses during the second quarter in a few minutes. We continue to make investments in people and processes to ensure that we deliver an exceptional learning experience for our students. We want to be the best and we want the best for our students. To achieve this goal, we are constantly evaluating new software, curriculum, and training aids.

Speaker 2

In addition, we want our instructors to have industry recognized credentials that ensure they have the most up to date knowledge in their field so our students have an edge on their competition. With technology ever changing, we are constantly in pursuit of what will help our students master the skills they desire to become the technicians, welders, and healthcare providers that will lead the next generation of skilled hands on professionals. As I noted at the beginning of my comments, student starts at our currently operating campuses grew nearly 22% in the second quarter. We continue to have growth at our existing campuses and programs as well as from our new campuses and programs. At East Point, total student starts at the eighteenth month mark of the campuses opening have achieved a level we expected to occur at the thirty sixth month mark.

Speaker 2

Similarly, we are seeing strong results from our recently relocated Nashville campus, which we have rebranded Nashville Auto Diesel College. In October, we will be layering on electrical and HVAC programs at NADC, which we believe will further enhance growth. We held a grand opening of NADC on June 5, which honored Nashville's historic position as a leading career technical college serving this country since World War I. Student start growth at existing campuses achieved an 18.3% growth rate, driven by the conversion of a higher number of leads generated by our marketing initiatives into student starts as well as increased high school graduate enrollees. Our initiatives to increase high school student starts has led to growing interest from both the schools as well as parents and students, and we are devoting additional resources to further developing this important market segment.

Speaker 2

At the same time, high schools are reaching out to us to explore how to offer our Skilled Trades programs to their students. Under what we call our High School Share Program, students attend Lincoln classes during their junior and senior years and then continue after high school to gain their certificate in less time, which accelerates their entry into rewarding careers. With students under constant challenge, our work with local high school boards is enabling the continuation of skilled trades training within the high schools while building our enrollment, and we are quite excited about the long term potential of this initiative. In addition to East Point in Nashville, our current campus development programs include Levittown, Pennsylvania, Houston, Texas and Hicksville, New York. In August, we completed the move of our highly successful Philadelphia automotive programs to the new Levittown campus and we will be opening three replicated programs including welding, HVAC and electrical at this new facility in September.

Speaker 2

In Houston, we received final regulatory approval during the second quarter and are pleased to announce student enrollment for the first classes starting in October is underway, approximately one month earlier than we originally expected. Our most recently announced campus, Hicksville, New York, continues to target a late twenty twenty six opening and we expect to announce another new campus when we report our third quarter results to you in early November. We recently completed a thorough review of underserved markets for the types of high value career training programs we deliver to students and believe there are at least a dozen other metropolitan areas for Lincoln to enter and realize returns similar to what we have generated in East Point and to date in Nashville. To seize on these opportunities for the next several years, we expect to increase the number of new campuses we develop each year to two and to fund this expansion through operating cash flow. With each new campus, our objective is to achieve 25,000,000 to $30,000,000 in annualized revenue and 7,000,000 to $10,000,000 of EBITDA by the fourth quarter of operation excuse me, by the fourth year of operation.

Speaker 2

Program replications at existing campuses and corporate partnerships remain key components of our growth strategy. I previously mentioned the opening schedule for replicated programs in both Nashville and Levittown. In addition, by year end, we expect to have replicated or expanded a total of six programs across existing campuses, building on the five we completed in 2024. On the partnership front, Corporate America continues to view Lincoln as a solution to closing the workforce skills gap, although decision making timelines remain somewhat lengthened due to ongoing economic uncertainty. During the quarter, we did execute agreements to extend existing partnerships and recently expanded our relationship with Johnson Controls to their fire detection unit at our Denver campus.

Speaker 2

Another growth programs. We recently brought on a seasoned professional to lead our nursing programs and have begun implementing changes to strengthen our instructional model and improve operating effectiveness. This review extends beyond implementing Lincoln 10 and we are quite excited about the long term potential of this effort. Meanwhile, last quarter, we talked about our efforts to regain enrollment status at our Paramus Nursing Program. We have exceeded the graduation benchmark at this program for the past twelve months and are engaging with the State Board so that we can once again be a full contributor to the effort to address the significant LPN shortage in New Jersey.

Speaker 2

Just a brief note on the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. The most recent financial provision for us the most relevant financial provision for us is the introduction of annual and lifetime borrowing limits on Parent PLUS loans, which goes into effect on 07/01/2026. However, based on our current analysis, we do not expect it to have a material financial impact. And that's all I have to say on the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. For nearly eighty years, Lincoln has remained focused on delivering high quality, life changing career education, and no one else has our combination of longevity, scale, and proven experience.

Speaker 2

By continuing to expand our network of schools by replicating our most in demand programs at our existing campuses, while building new campuses in new and existing markets, we believe we are on track to exceed our objective of approximately $550,000,000 in revenue and approximately $90,000,000 of adjusted EBITDA in 2027. As I've discussed before, our country's existing severe skills gap will likely get worse before getting better. There are major initiatives underway that will drive this increased demand for skilled workers, whether it's our Navy's need for 250,000 skilled workers over the next ten years to build three submarines a year or the electric utilities dire need to build new sources of electric power to fuel rapidly expanding demand caused by AI and the move towards electrification in general, or the expected massive onshoring efforts of our manufacturing base by the current administration to create greater economic security and prosperity, the demand for more talented men and women to enter the skilled trades will only increase and Lincoln Tech will be there to meet that demand. Finally, I'd like to note, we will be continuing our investor outreach with a non deal roadshow scheduled for August with Barrington in Portland, Oregon and Salt Lake City respectively, and participating in the September investor conferences organized by B.

Speaker 2

Riley, Lake Street and Barrington on September respectively. These activities follow our June 16 NASDAQ event, where we had the honor of ringing the opening bell in celebration of the twentieth anniversary of our NASDAQ listing. With our continued operational and financial momentum, investor interest in Lincoln builds, and we are gratified by our increased analyst coverage. Currently, six analysts are publishing on highest number of analysts in our twenty years of being a publicly traded company. Now I'll turn the call over to Brian Myers, so he can review some of our recent financial highlights and guidance.

Speaker 2

Brian?

Speaker 3

Thanks, Scott, good morning, everyone. I'm pleased to share our second quarter results, which exceed our internal forecast reflecting the strong momentum in our business. This performance was driven by robust stock growth and improved operating efficiencies resulting in increased profitability. Before we dive into the numbers, a couple of reminders on our year over year comparisons. First, the financial comparisons in my remarks exclude the transitional segment, which consists of our former Summerlin, Las Vegas campus sold in late twenty twenty four.

Speaker 3

Second, as previously communicated during the first quarter's earnings call, as a result of a shift under our Lincoln 10 academic calendar, the stock class that took place in the June 2024 shifted to July 1 in 2025. This was a one time scheduling adjustment stemming from this year's calendar, and we expect to return to our typical June start schedule in 2026.

Speaker 1

For

Speaker 3

comparison purposes, our Q2 reported population start figures includes the class start on July 1, which accounted for 2,764 students. Revenue for the quarter was $116,500,000 representing a 15.1% increase over the prior year. The increase was primarily driven by our strong start growth during the first half of the year. In terms of Q2, we had another solid performance as we grew an average student population by about 19%. We ended the quarter with about 17,100 students compared to 14,200 in the prior year, representing a 21% increase in population.

Speaker 3

Student starts for the quarter were approximately 5,900, representing about 22% growth over prior year. Now diving deeper in the composition of our start growth. We saw a 32% increase in starts across our transportation skilled trades program, driven by continued strong demand and successful program additions and expansions. Excluding the programs launched in twenty twenty four and twenty twenty five, we still achieved 23% organic growth. As expected, our healthcare and other professional professions program experienced an 8% decline in starts.

Speaker 3

The decline was largely due to the temporary pause enrollment in our nursing program at the Paramus, New Jersey campus. Additionally, as noted last quarter, we discontinued underperforming programs as part of our plan to optimize our campus operations with the higher student interest and employee demand programs. Excluding the impact from these factors, our HOPPS program delivered modest organic growth for Q2. As Scott mentioned earlier, we remain highly focused on improving the financial performance of our HOPPS programs. With added personnel, dedicated resources, we're confident that these efforts will drive meaningful improvements and position the programs for long term growth.

Speaker 3

Turning to expenses. Total operating expenses were $113,600,000 up from $101,800,000 in the prior year. The increase was primarily tied to higher direct costs associated with supporting a larger student base, as well as expenses related to growth initiatives. From a profitability standpoint, our adjusted EBITDA grew by 56% reaching 10,500,000, up from 6,700,000.0. Since our transitional Summerlin campus had a 500,000.0 EBITDA loss last year, our total consolidated adjusted EBITDA growth increased 68%.

Speaker 3

This improvement reflects the operating leverage generated by several key initiatives. These include efficiencies from our Lincoln ten point zero education model, a 13% reduction in marketing cost per start, and continuing decline in bad debt expense as a percentage of revenue. Net income for the quarter was $1,600,000 or $05 per diluted share. Adjusted net income was $2,700,000 or $09 per diluted share based on approximately 31,300,000.0 diluted shares outstanding. As a reminder, given the seasonality of our business, we typically generate the majority of our annual profitability in the second half of the year.

Speaker 3

Now turning to the balance sheet. We ended the quarter with $63,700,000 in total liquidity. Our ending cash balance and cash from operations were affected by a few timing related factors during the quarter. First, we experienced a temporary slowdown in Title IV drawdowns, driven by a spike in verification selections by the Department of Education. This initiative was announced in early June and impacted institutions across the industry.

Speaker 3

As a result, our financial aid team, like many others, face processing delays as they work with students to gather additional documentation needed to clear eligibility. Second, as noted earlier, the academic calendar change under Lincoln 10 impacted not only start timing, but also the timing of Title IV disbursements. Specifically, some disbursements for both new and continuing students that would have occurred in late Q2 were pushed to Q3. As a result, we expect strong cash collections in the second half of the year, driven by both the timing shift in disbursements and our seasonality. We remain focused on executing on key capital projects.

Speaker 3

Total capital expenditures were approximately $58,000,000 for the six months of the year, with $46,000,000 reflected on the cash flow statement. The majority of our quarter spend was tied to two campus relocations and continued build out of our future Houston campus, which remains on track to open in the fourth quarter of this year. Based on our current plans, we are raising our full year CapEx guidance by $5,000,000 bringing it to 75,000,000 to 80,000,000 This increase is driven by growth initiatives, including our decision to take on additional space at a selected campus due to significant demand in the market. Looking ahead to the remainder of 2025, based on our strong second quarter performance and positive trends, we are raising our full year guidance. We now expect revenue ranging from $490,000,000 to $500,000,000 adjusted EBITDA in the range of $60,000,000 to $65,000,000 net income ranging from 13,000,000 to 18,000,000 capital expenditures ranging from 75,000,000 to $80,000,000 student start growth of 12% to 15%.

Speaker 3

In terms of student starts for the second half of the year, we expect Q3 starts to be relatively flat, given the comparison to last year's strong performance, which saw over 20% growth. That said, we anticipate Q4 starts to align more closely with the growth trends we've seen in the first half of the year. As a reminder, our guidance excludes stock based compensation, one time non recurring items, pre opening costs, and net operating losses from newly opened or relocated campuses. You'll find more detailed guidance information in our earnings release, which was filed earlier today. In conclusion, based on our 2025 performance to date and our approved outlook for the year, driven by the momentum across our three core growth drivers, one, new relocated campuses, two, program expansions, and three, our growing organic demand in our existing base.

Speaker 3

We believe we're on track to exceed our 2027 financial objective of $550,000,000 in revenue and $90,000,000 adjusted EBITDA that we established last year. And with that, I'll turn the call over to the operator for questions. Operator?

Operator

Thank you. Our first question comes from the line of Alex Paris from Barrington Research.

Speaker 4

Hi guys, morning. Congrats on the beat and raise. Thanks, Alex. You're welcome. I was just trying to decide my two questions.

Speaker 4

I think I'm going start with the last one first. Brian, you had just said second half starts. You gave a little color about what to expect in Q3, Q4. Did you say relatively flat starts in the third quarter? And then what did you say for the fourth quarter?

Speaker 3

Yeah, relatively flat for Q3, because if you remember in 2024, we had 20% growth. So it's a very high comparison. So it should be very modest growth, so relatively flat. And Q4 will be on pace with what we did in the first half of the year. Q4 will be on pace with what we did in the first half of the year, which I think was like 18 to 20%.

Speaker 4

And you were talking to on the adjustment of that start because if you include that July 1 start, I would think starts would be up significantly year over year.

Speaker 3

Yeah, it would be up meaningful.

Speaker 2

Yes. But since we counted that in the second to make it apples to apples, and just for your own benefit, Alex, I mean, we budgeted the third quarter to be flat. So everything is, you know, on on track for how we budgeted the full year. And it flows with also how we budgeted for marketing expenses as well. Correct?

Speaker 4

Gotcha. Yeah, I do recall you telegraphing that on the last call.

Speaker 2

Then

Speaker 4

a follow-up question on the one big beautiful bill. You you talked about the you you talked about the lending limits, which should have no material impact on, Lincoln. But there there's some other positive things in there, I would think, from your perspective. First of all, Pell is funded. There was some talk, at least the House version of the bill, they would increase or reduce eligibility, and that's not occurred.

Speaker 4

Funding is intact. The projected shortfall for next year has been made up for. And then the introduction of Workforce Pell. So, I'm curious about your thoughts on Workforce Pell and what does that does that create additional opportunity for Lincoln?

Speaker 2

Yeah, we don't think it really creates that much more opportunity for us. I mean, we've looked at some short term programs and there might be a few, but I don't view it as a major initiative for us. I mean, to be honest, when we've looked at some of those things, as long as you don't have to advertise for them, they make economic sense for us. But to the extent we need to advertise to make people aware of these programs, we find that it doesn't make as much economic sense for us. So, if something comes around where we do see an opportunity, we'll certainly take advantage of it, but we're kind of focused on our core business right now.

Speaker 4

Great. And then, I'm going to just cheat here and tag out one little You've talked about exceeding your long term targets, which were given in early twenty twenty three, and it's really not so long term anymore. We're talking about fiscal twenty twenty seven. When will you update and issue new long term guidance?

Speaker 2

Well, we'll probably update the guidance we have in November, and then we'll end up doing a Investor Day next year, in which case we'll set out new targets for us.

Speaker 4

Great. Well, you very much for answering my questions, and I appreciate the time.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Alex. Appreciate it as well.

Speaker 5

Thanks, Alex.

Operator

Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Luke Horton from Northland Capital Markets.

Speaker 5

Please

Operator

check your mute button. Your line is now open. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Raj Sharma from Texas Capital.

Speaker 6

Thank you for taking my question. Again, congratulations on a strong quarter and strong starts. So I get the starts on the transportation side were strong and that was the one extra start in July 1 that was counted and then it's so that's the adjustment makes 3Q flat. But can you comment on the health care starts and how they are in line or

Speaker 2

moving along? Sure. So first of all, just one comment. The counting of the July 1 starts, an extra start for the second quarter. It's just to make the number of starts equal in 2024 and 2025, just as clarification.

Speaker 2

But on the healthcare side, yeah, we have, I think as we've discussed before, our healthcare segment is not as profitable today as our skilled trade segment. And so, we haven't made as many investments in expanding the opportunity there, until we get that segment to be more profitable, which as I mentioned, I think Brian also mentioned, we do now have some new leadership there, which we anticipate will start turning that around. And in fact, we're already seeing some signs of it getting better. So overall, it is not growing nearly as rapidly as our skilled trade side, but some of that is mainly due to we're just investing more marketing dollars on the skilled trade sides from the standpoint of that's where we're getting our strongest return. However, with all that said, I expect health care to be a future growth driver for us.

Speaker 2

But that'll be more later in 2026 into 2027.

Speaker 3

And Raj, I'll just add, even though health care was down by almost 8%, that included not having starts this year for our Paramus Nursing program. As Scott was saying, we're optimistic that might come back shortly. And also, we peached out some underperforming programs such as culinary and massage therapy. So when you carve that out, our organic growth did grow slightly, less than 3%. So we did have some organic growth on same program basis.

Speaker 6

Could you sort of comment more on the health care side? Is it is it, you know, it's not profitable because you haven't achieved breakeven sort of capacity utilization of campuses or and your competitors are seeing some really good growth opportunities in the near term in this sort of segment. Are you looking to allocate some capital or or, you know, grow in this area organically?

Speaker 2

Yes. The the answer is Yeah, absolutely as far as growing new grantees, the long and short of it Raj is our nursing program is the way it's structured and I think I've maybe mentioned this before during the pandemic, our most important focus was ensuring that our students are gonna get the quality education and be able to pass the NCLEX exams and nursing salaries went up dramatically. And we just continue to hire people at a high price in order to ensure the quality of the education. Now that's come down and we're restructuring it. And I think as we've mentioned in the past, our healthcare program, nursing is not on the Lincoln 10 calendar, or structure, which basically means we have two shifts for nursing.

Speaker 2

Once we get that to a blended format, we'll be able to have three shifts. So that will dramatically change the economics of that program, as well as give us greater capacity to meet the strong needs in the local markets. So it's really though on the healthcare side, versus I'll say the medical assisting or dental assisting side, that we're kind of held back on the growth. But as soon as we get that restructured, that's where I'm saying later 2026 into 2027, we anticipate good growth. And I think I've mentioned in the past, we are seeking degree granting status in three different states, Connecticut, New York and New Jersey.

Speaker 2

And once we get that degree granting status, we'll be able to leverage our LPN program and then offer an RN program, which is what our longer term goal is. It's the largest part of the healthcare sector, and frankly, all of our LPNs, if they haven't become an RN yet, are striving to become one. So with that combination, it'll I think be very powerful healthcare offering, as well as a very profitable healthcare offering.

Speaker 3

And Raj, I'll just want to add one thing for the health care schools. They are all profitable except for our premise campus, because of the reason they discontinued nursing. So the campuses are all projected to be profitable by year end. It's because, as Scott mentioned, MA and a lot of them do have skilled trade programs as well in those campuses. The campuses themselves are strong.

Speaker 6

Right. And thank you for that. And then just one last question on the military and veteran side, just in terms of so you mentioned increasing outreach in the past, military veteran communities. There's also the recent the bill actually had an added contribution from Department of Defense and Tuition Assistance. I don't know if that impacts you.

Speaker 6

But what is your medium term sort of goal for this segment in terms of the percentage of total enrollment? Any specific programs that are happening there

Speaker 2

Yeah. To I mean Yeah. Yep. No problem, Raj. So, yeah, today military represents less than 10% of our students.

Speaker 2

And frankly, part of the challenge is as we move to Lincoln 10, it's a blended program. And as I mentioned, just talking about nursing, or the health care side, without a degree, you cannot offer a blended certificate program to military veterans. So frankly, in certain markets, we stopped serving the military, yet we're still achieving the growth that we're achieving. Because we stopped serving them is because you cannot, as I say, offer a blended program. So we would have to have them full time on campus, which means that they have to be on campus more hours, which frankly reduces our operating efficiencies.

Speaker 2

So we've unfortunately made the decision to stop enrolling military students in, let's say, New Jersey, for example, where we don't have degree granting yet, because it just would add to our inefficiency. So as we get degree granting, which our application is in with the state of New Jersey, so we'd anticipate getting that shortly. And then once we graduate students from a degree program in New Jersey, we'll be able to re enroll veterans. So I would anticipate that that will be a nice growth driver for us once that happens. Because as you probably well remember, Lincoln Tech was founded serving veterans.

Speaker 2

That's from a part of our heritage. And we wanna get back to that heritage as much as possible.

Speaker 6

Right. Great. Well, thank you for answering my questions. I'll take it offline. Congratulations again.

Speaker 4

Thanks, Raj. Thanks.

Speaker 2

Yep. Appreciate it. Thank

Operator

you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Luke Horton from Northland Capital Markets.

Speaker 5

Hey, guys. Can you hear me this time?

Speaker 2

Yes. We can hear you.

Speaker 5

I'm sure, Jordan. Sorry about that. Not sure why we got disconnected, but congrats again on really nice quarter here. Nice beat and raise again. Just wanted to see if we could get a sense for kind of what programs are driving these strong student starts, if you could kind of rank those.

Speaker 5

And then also just particularly on the East Point campus, sounds like that's effectively moving twice as fast as initial expectations from an enrollment perspective. So if you could kind of call out what programs there are also driving this outperformance?

Speaker 2

So I'll just start with the second first. At East Point, all four programs, again, just remind you, it's auto, HVAC, electrical and welding, are all doing well and are strong. And frankly, those are our four highest growing programs out there and kind of across the board, probably on the skilled trade side more than automotive is seeing more growth. But I'm happy with the growth that we have kind of across the board.

Speaker 5

Got it. And then you did mention the kind of plans to open two new campuses per year. Just wondering from a program mix perspective, is that gonna be similar to those that auto, HVAC, electrical, or will there be more of an emphasis towards skilled trades versus auto, or how do you think about that for new campuses?

Speaker 2

Yeah, good point. Good question. No, the we anticipate opening the kind of just like an East Point. So it'll have an auto component plus the skilled trades. You know, with that said, we have looked at locations that may not have an auto.

Speaker 2

And the only reason why that is our auto program requires a higher ceiling height, and you can put a skilled trades program into, frankly, a traditional office building, whereas I couldn't necessarily put an auto program into a traditional office building, unless I maybe tear out the floor, which just adds to expense. So we have explored potentially having a skilled trades only program, but all the markets that we've done our research in, there is demand for auto as well. So as of right now, the plan is auto, HVAC, electrical and welding, but it may be tweaked depending on individual local markets.

Speaker 5

Okay, got it. Yeah. Sorry for the disconnect earlier, but I appreciate you guys taking the questions and congrats again on another strong quarter.

Speaker 2

Thank you. And we're glad you're on the call. Thanks.

Operator

Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Eric Martinuzzi from Lake Street Capital Markets.

Speaker 7

Yeah, I wanted to dive in on the marketing efficiency. Are you doing anything different than ninety days ago, or is it just the more the demand, the reaction of the demand to the marketing?

Speaker 2

It's a good question, the one I'm trying to get my hands around, as I probably have said in the past, certainly I wanna give credit to our marketing folks, as well as to our admissions folks as they make it all happen. But when I see consistently kind of across the board improvements, particularly also in our, you know, some of our conversion rates with our admissions folks. I have to believe that there is greater overall receptivity. So our messaging is getting out there. We're attracting those that are interested in finding a very high value rewarding career.

Speaker 2

But they are, I'd say, even more interested, which helps, create the success that we're getting. So I think the overall awareness in the marketplace and the demand by young people to look for something that's very tangible, which is what we offer. As an aside, I guess it's interesting. I was at a conference recently where they were talking about AI and they were talking about how even though we think this younger generation is so digital, that I guess there are fewer people looking to date online and looking for instead more face to face interactions. And I think in general, if I were to extrapolate on that, I think in general, that's one of the rewards of the careers that we offer.

Speaker 2

People find it very concrete and real what they are able to do once they enter the skill trades. And so I think all these things are helping drive greater awareness, greater interest, and then needless to say, number of students in our campuses.

Speaker 7

Got it. And then for your the two locations where you've relocated facilities, how's your staffing retention been in Nashville and in Levittown?

Speaker 2

Levittown, we just moved a couple weeks ago, so I can't tell you any predictions there, but really there, we're we're ramping up because at that campus, all we had was automotive. So we obviously moved all of our automotive instructors over, and, we're now hiring up for the electrical HVAC and welding. I can assure you that when the students went from there, I'll say very vintage facility into this brand new facility, it was just a number, it was just, you know, there's just lots of excitement to to say the least. People just were amazed by what they're now able to learn in. And so I have to imagine, it's going to lead to frankly, greater retention.

Speaker 2

It was similar at Nashville when they left their campus that was probably over 80 years old. It came into this state of the industry facility. Again, people couldn't be more proud and honored, frankly, to be there. And we're seeing good results. And frankly, it's making our jobs as far as attracting students, much easier.

Speaker 1

Thanks for taking my questions.

Speaker 2

No problem, Eric. Thank you. Thank

Operator

you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Griffin Boss from B. Riley Securities.

Speaker 8

Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. So first, I just wanted to start off on the CapEx side. The expectation there ticked up a little bit for this year. But given the expectation for growth, two new campuses per year and the growing demand you're seeing and you increased your credit facility earlier this year and you had a little drawdown this quarter.

Speaker 8

I know you're not giving guidance for 2026, but directionally, is there anything you could say as to the expectation there of where CapEx goes beyond this year? I mean, we expect it to kind of remain at relatively heightened levels versus years past?

Speaker 3

Yeah, I'll just mention two things. One is the CapEx going into next year is just for our new Long Island campus. Some of that, and as Scott mentioned, in the Q3, we're hoping we'll announce another new location because obviously Houston is our fall in this year. So I think it will be at a lower level because even if we sign another new lease, it probably won't be until the latter 2026. So it will definitely be on the lower side of this year.

Speaker 8

Okay, great. Yeah, that makes sense. Thanks for that color. And second one for me, looking at average student population and revenue, I mean, kind of back into this, call it average revenue per student or average tuition per student, That looked like it ticked down year over year. Is there any read through there as to what's driving that?

Speaker 8

Or is that just kind of the mix of program students are entering in the second quarter? Any color you can provide there.

Speaker 3

Sure. As we mentioned last quarter, this quarter, there's two reasons that's driving that. One is we shifted to a pro rata calculation for when students drop. We used to do a state based drop policy, and now we move to a more pro rata policy, which is more student friendly. So it does reduce the amount of revenue we do earn when a student does drop, but also reduces our bad debt expense.

Speaker 3

So we're rolling that out. That will go into next year also. Like I said, I don't think that will affect our EBITDA at all, but it does lower our revenue that we earned on the drop students. It's offset by the bad debt reduction. But the main thing that happened this year is last year we had that one start that we talked about.

Speaker 3

It was June 24. So we earned all revenue and revenue on books and tools. And this year we didn't earn that revenue. So there was about $2,000,000 of revenue if we did have that start in June 24 this year, but we did have it in July 1. Those two items reduced our revenue per student.

Speaker 8

Got it. Excellent. Okay. Thanks, Brian. Appreciate you guys taking my questions.

Speaker 5

Excellent. Thanks. No problem.

Operator

Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Lars Munson from Tibor Capital.

Speaker 2

Yes. Hi. Just following on that question about CapEx for Brian. To the outside observer, the returns on capital here don't look all that great. And I'm just wondering as someone newer to the story, which unit level return metrics or methodologies do you guys focus on track internally and hold yourself to?

Speaker 2

And over time, what kind of capital returns should investors expect for this business? Thank you.

Speaker 3

Right. So first, we were very optimistic with our East Point campuses because within the first year of operations, it returned profitability in Q3. So within three years of operations, we think we can get a return on investment there with our East Point campus. So we're hoping these other campuses that are a little bit larger, that can do similar returns as well.

Speaker 2

Yeah, I would just say that, I mean, the CapEx has been much larger recently, but we really haven't seen the benefit of that CapEx yet, except for East Point, which has been open eighteen months. So, as we're already seeing, we spent a big amount of money on Nashville. We're already seeing improvements there in their starts. We obviously spent a lot of money on Levittown, but we just moved into that facility two weeks ago. You will start seeing in 2026 and 2027, the increase in revenue and cash flow that's going to come from those to justify the investments that have been made.

Speaker 2

Again, just want to go ahead. Sorry.

Speaker 3

So I was just going to say, East Point is doing what we thought it would do with thirty six months out. So the first full year, it's going be doing over $6,000,000 worth of EBITDA. So we are getting a nice return there. The model on the website is not anticipating that, but we think it should reach those levels.

Speaker 2

Okay, but just taking that example of Eastpoint then, what does that imply in terms of an IRR or return percentage wise? If you get to get

Speaker 8

that 6,000,000, does that how does that pencil So

Speaker 2

it's about a 17,000,000 all in cash investment that eighteen months after opening, well, actually it would be like, let's say twenty months after opening, should generate between 6,000,000 and $7,000,000 of cash flow.

Speaker 6

Okay, thank you.

Speaker 2

Yep, no problem.

Operator

Thank you. As a reminder, to ask a question, please press 11 on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw your question, please press At this time, I would now like to turn the conference back over to Scott Shaw for closing remarks.

Speaker 2

Thank you, operator, and thank you all for joining us today as we reviewed our continued progress, growth, and increased financial guidance for the full year. As more and more people, both high school graduates and adults, seek a time efficient, cost effective path to develop skills that can serve them a lifetime, interest in our programs continues to grow. We are well positioned to grow through the expansion of our footprint and existing campus development. With our student start growth, new campus development, increasing level of operating efficiencies, we believe we have numerous opportunities to generate increasing levels of shareholder returns over several years. Our success is only made possible by the commitment and dedication of our faculty and staff who day in and day out are engaging with our students to motivate, educate, and inspire them to reach their potential.

Speaker 2

At Lincoln Tech, we know our success is directly linked to our students' success, and we will continue to share with the world that middle skills careers like the ones we offer lead to rewarding, productive, and fulfilling careers that our nation desperately needs. I'd like to thank our shareholders for their support and our entire team for their dedication to achieving our goals. I hope to see you during my time on the road visiting shareholders, employers and politicians as I share the Lincoln Tech story. Thank you all again and have a great day.

Operator

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

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