Kratos Defense & Security Solutions Q2 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
August 7, 2025

Key Takeaways

  • Positive Sentiment: Kratos reported Q2 organic revenue growth of 15%, a 1.2:1 book-to-bill ratio and a record $13 billion bid pipeline, supporting its 2026 organic growth forecast of 13–15%.
  • Positive Sentiment: Second quarter revenues of $351.5 million and adjusted EBITDA of $28.3 million exceeded guidance, prompting a full-year 2025 revenue raise to $1.285–1.31 billion and EBITDA guidance to $114–120 million, while Kratos fully paid off its $180 million term loan.
  • Positive Sentiment: Kratos secured the Poseidon program award as prime, with an expected contract value of up to $750 million and production ramping in mid-2027, bolstering its steady-state revenue and cash flow.
  • Positive Sentiment: The Valkyrie tactical drone was designated a U.S. Marine Corps program of record, Airbus signed on for a European variant, two more sole-source opportunities emerged, and Kratos is preparing for serial production of 48 aircraft to optimize cost and efficiency.
  • Negative Sentiment: Second quarter cash flow used in operations was $10.6 million and free cash flow negative $31.1 million, driven by working capital needs for inventory increases and receivables growth.
AI Generated. May Contain Errors.
Earnings Conference Call
Kratos Defense & Security Solutions Q2 2025
00:00 / 00:00

There are 16 speakers on the call.

Operator

Thank you for standing by and welcome to Kratos Defense and Security Solutions Second Quarter twenty twenty five Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode. After the speaker presentation, there will be a question and answer session. To ask a question during the session, you will need to press 11 on your telephone. To remove yourself from the queue, you may press 11 again.

Operator

I would now like to hand the call over to Marie Mendoza, Senior VP General Counsel. Please go ahead.

Speaker 1

Thank you. Good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for joining us for the Kratos Defense and Security Solutions second quarter twenty twenty five conference call. With me today is Eric DeMarco, Kratos' President and Chief Executive Officer, and Deanna Lund, Kratos' Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Before we begin the substance of today's call, I'd like everyone to please take note of the Safe Harbor paragraph that is included at the end of today's press release.

Speaker 1

This paragraph emphasizes the major uncertainties and risks inherent in the forward looking statements we will make this afternoon. Please keep these uncertainties and risks in mind as we discuss future strategic initiatives, potential market opportunities, operational outlook, financial guidance and other forward looking statements made during today's call. Today's call will also include a discussion of non GAAP financial measures as that term is defined in Regulation G. Non GAAP financial measures should not be considered in isolation from or as a substitute for financial information presented in compliance with GAAP. Accordingly, at the end of today's press release, we have provided a reconciliation of these non GAAP financial measures to the company's financial results prepared in accordance with GAAP.

Speaker 1

Eric?

Speaker 2

Thank you, Marie. The annual global defense and national security expenditure in 2024 was approximately $2,500,000,000,000 This $2,500,000,000,000 figure does not take into account the expected increase in The United States national security spend to over 1,000,000,000,000 this year or planned NATO increases in its defense expenditures from a historical approximately 2% up to 5% of GDP. And this is also before the recent announcement from non NATO US allies in The Pacific, that they would also be increasing their defense expenditures to 5% of GDP. There is truly a generational global recapitalization of weapon systems and related infrastructure currently underway. And we believe that Kratos is one of the few qualified today defense technology companies positioned now to address it and take advantage of what is truly an industry inflection point.

Speaker 2

The Trump administration through recent executive orders is working to streamline the US DoD procurement, purchasing and deployment processes to significantly improve efficiency, make the deployment of new systems and technology to the war fighter faster and prioritize new rapidly developed and fast to field hardware and systems. Additionally, both the Senate through the FORGED Act and the House via the SPEED Act are similarly looking to streamline the defense procurement and acquisition processes, including a focus on first to market relevant technology, hardware products and systems. We are also at the beginning of a rebuild of the US defense industrial base, which is after feet for several decades, which rebuild we believe will require hundreds of billions of dollars of investment and take many years to complete. Kratos is realizing the positive impact of these factors including our Q2 organic revenue growth rate of 15%, our bookings with an LTM book to bill ratio of 1.2 to one, Our backlog, our record level bid and proposal pipeline of $13,000,000,000 and also our previously communicated 2026 forecast base case organic revenue growth of 13% to 15% over '25, which is now substantially covered by on hand programs and contracts. Additionally, after our second quarter ended, we were informed by a government customer that we have been successful on a large new program of record opportunity we call Poseidon, which I do not believe that I have previously mentioned, with formal contract award to Kratos as prime expected shortly.

Speaker 2

Poseidon is expected to be a single award to Kratos. It's a military grade hardware and system program with an approximate total potential value through production of approximately $750,000,000 which should begin ramping for us in mid-twenty seven, once the required program specific new facility we will be standing up is complete. The Poseidon win is expected to provide Kratos another large steady state future revenue profit and cash flow engine, further enabling our aggressive growth pursuit, including in the drone, hypersonic, jet engine, microwave and satcom areas, generating while profitability and cash flow. Additionally, Kratos was also informed after the Q2 close that our team with a key Kratos partner has been one of few companies successfully down selected on another new program of record opportunity. Kratos cold named Deimos with Kratos contract award expected shortly.

Speaker 2

As a result of these and other expected contract awards, we currently forecast that Kratos' third quarter bookings could be particularly strong. Since our last report, Kratos' confidence has increased in our 2026 forecast base case margin or EBITDA rate increase of 100 to 150 basis points with additional increases expected in 2027 and beyond as new higher margin programs we have recently received begin to ramp up and certain lower margin contracts are renewed with the customers at expected higher margin rates. In Kratos' tactical drone business, it was recently reported that both the US Marine Corps and the Office of the Secretary of Defense stated that the Valkyrie is becoming a program of record and will be the first CCA in production and fielded for the Marines. Additionally, Airbus recently announced that they have partnered with Kratos for a European mission focused Valkyrie and initially specifically targeting the German Luftwaffe with the current expectation for fielding no later than 2029. As you know, Kratos' base case financial forecast does not include any assumed tactical drone production, which we will only include in our revenue forecast once we have received contract award as the potential financial impact to Kratos when we receive tactical drone awards could be very significant.

Speaker 2

For example, if in 2026, hypothetically, Kratos receives an initial order for 15 Valkyries at 10,000,000 each, we could have an immediate revenue increase over our base case financial model and forecast of 150,000,000 with profit as the Valkyrie is currently in production and we could have 15 aircraft ready to deliver immediately upon contract award in my example. Both the Marines and Airbus opportunities were made possible as a result of Kratos making the investment to begin production of 24 Valkyries, several of which have been delivered to customers as you know, in advance of a program or contract award with approximately 15 to 20 of which can or will be completed and available for sale next year. Kratos made the decision to make the investment and begin serial production of 24 Valkyries ahead of contract award, so that Kratos would be first to market and that the potential customers could come to the factory, see their aircraft being built, see the actual cost data for the aircraft, see their aircraft fly, and we believe based on what we expect to occur that this was the correct business decision. Kratos took the same first to market approach of making the internal investments to design and develop certain of our other product offerings, including Erinys and Dark Fury, our hypersonic flyers, our Zeus one, Zeus two and Oriel solid rocket motor stacks, our family of jet engines for drones and missiles, our open space C2 and telemetry tracking control satellite system, and many others, each of which are and we believe will be driving Kratos' future growth and value.

Speaker 2

In addition to the US Marine Corps and Airbus Valkyrie related opportunities that have been reported, we have two new additional Valkyrie opportunities with two different customers, both of which I believe Kratos is currently in a sole source position. As a result of recent Valkyrie related progress, we have now begun the process of pricing out with our already in place and performing qualified suppliers, the long lead purchasing and the program planning for an expanded production run of at least 24 additional Valkyries, which would sustain and build on the current learning curve from the initial 24 and would bring the total Valkyrie serial production run to 48 aircraft. Across the potential increased Valkyrie production run, we would be producing several variants including runway independent, combined runway independent runway capable, CTOL, a European focused variant and potentially two additional variants, all of which are specifically potential customer focused. By maintaining the Valkyrie production line with a potential additional 25 aircraft, we will continue to improve production efficiencies and reduce cost as we continue to come down the manufacturing learning curve, further establishing Kratos' leadership position with actual aircraft and real known cost points. I can now also report to you that we expect that by the end of this year, we will receive a sole source contract for the Kratos Airwolf tactical jet drone, which could lead to a production contract in late twenty twenty six.

Speaker 2

And I can report that Kratos' Athena tactical drone very recently had multiple successful flights, as we continue to progress with this customer funded program. Kratos' Ghostworks is currently working on a new fifth generation jet drone with expected first flight in the '26 and Ghostworks is also working with Kratos Turbines Blade Works and our Rocket Systems Chaos team on a new hypersonic system named Icarus. Kratos' Israeli based microwave electronics business has successfully completed its move into our new manufacturing facility with less operational downtime than we originally expected and we are now positioned for further increased organic revenue growth with the expanded capacity, including with our key partners Rafael, Israeli Aerospace Industries and Elbit. Kratos' Jet Engine and Propulsion Systems businesses are certain of our strongest revenue growers and highest operating margin businesses with growth expected to accelerate in the 2026, including as LRIP quantities of certain drones and missile programs increase with additional revenue increases expected in '27 and then also in 2028 as LRIP is expected to transition to full rate production on certain programs. As you would expect, Kratos' military grade air defense, missile radar and counter UAS systems business is very strong and is also expected to be a key Kratos base case future organic revenue growth driver, including with our incredible partners, Northrop, Lockheed and Raytheon, each of which innovate, develop and integrate certain of the best weapon systems in the world as is being demonstrated globally in combat.

Speaker 2

Kratos' space, training and cyber business is turning around, led by our government and national security offerings with expected 2026 growth and increased profit margins and accelerating into 2027 based on programs and the current new opportunity pipeline. The reconciliation bill in the Trump administration's policies, position and support for space and satellite capability has now clearly become both evident and significant, including for national security, which we are seeing in our government satellite business. Crisply stated, with the Trump administration's focus on space, including Golden Dome and Kratos has proven expertise in delivering scalable software defined ground systems combined with the open architecture approach of open space. This uniquely positions Kratos to rapidly integrate a diverse set of next generation satellite constellations and defense capabilities for US government missions. Kratos' track record of cost effective agile solutions and deep customer partnerships ensures that Kratos can meet evolving mission requirements faster and more efficiently than other companies in the satellite area.

Speaker 2

Kratos' space and satellite business, our technology and our capabilities are in my opinion, they're the gold standard of the industry and we're seeing that now with Kratos space being one of the most valuable businesses in our company. Kratos' Anaconda, our Helios, Nemesis, Hermes and certain other initiatives are tracking and we hope to be successful on Anaconda and Helios by the end of the year. Kratos Prometheus partnership with Rafael is on track. Certain key energetics related production equipment has been ordered, certain key employees, including the chief operating officer have now been hired and we remain optimistic that Prometheus will be a billion dollar plus business once at full rate production. Similarly, Kratos' GEK small turbofan initiative with our outstanding partner GE Aerospace is on track.

Speaker 2

The GEK production facility location has been identified as you know, and we expect GEK to also be a billion dollar business once at full rate production. I want to pass on to our shareholders that we are routinely told by our customers and partners that Kratos' affordability and our approach, technology, military grade manufacturing facilities, our national security approved execution facilities, products and capabilities are invaluable and basically don't exist in any other defense technology company. A primary differentiator that we are routinely being told more and more often, including now in Europe, is that Kratos doesn't run around putting out PR, PowerPoints and podcasts saying what we're going to do. At Kratos, we've already done it. For example, Valkyrie has flown with effectively every fighter in The United States inventory.

Speaker 2

Valkyrie has flown from multiple US sites in multiple scenarios. Valkyrie identified by the Office of the Secretary of Defense and the Marines as a CCA has collaboratively operated with multiple manned military aircraft and has collaboratively cooperated multiple Valkyries, not surrogates, not computer models, not pretty pictures, actual Valkyrie systems. All of these flights and events have occurred in coordination and cooperation with our military customers. Valkyrie exists, is flying and has been flying since 2019. The Valkyrie is real.

Speaker 2

This is why Airbus partnered with Kratos. Airbus wants to work with the company that has real flying products and aircraft that have flown with the F-thirty five for example and flown with the F-thirty two, excuse me, the F-twenty two, not just promises. I find it interesting that other companies are routinely making claims of what their systems will be and capabilities it will have. I consistently tell you on these calls what we have done, what we're going to do, we do it, what our systems are, our actual successful missions and our specific customers. We believe that these are key reasons why Kratos is seeing increased program opportunities, bid pipeline partnership opportunities, and sole source positioning, all of which we expect to continue and potentially accelerate as national security and defense prioritization increases.

Speaker 2

At Kratos, recognize the scarcity value of our company, including for United States National Security and to our stakeholders, and we are laser focused on execution and rebuilding The U. S. Industrial base while generating value for our stockholders. Deanna?

Speaker 3

Thank you, Eric. Good afternoon. As we have included a detailed summary of the second quarter financial performance as well as the initial third quarter and modifications to full year 2025 financial guidance in the press release we published earlier today, I will focus on the highlights in my remarks today. Revenues for the third sorry, second quarter were $351,500,000 above our estimated range of 300,000,000 to $310,000,000 with overachievement of forecasted revenues across all of our businesses with the most notable growth in our Defense Rocket support due in part to the timing of hypersonic missions and in our C5ISR businesses, with organic revenue growth rates of 116.625.4% respectively. Adjusted EBITDA for the 2025 was $28,300,000 also above our estimated range of 21,000,000 to $25,000,000 reflecting the increased volume, offset partially by continued increase of contractor and material costs on certain multi year firm fixed price contracts in our Unmanned Systems business and a less favorable mix in our Space, Training and Cyber business.

Speaker 3

Unmanned Systems second quarter twenty twenty five revenue was down $12,600,000 due to the prior year comparable, including 17,400,000 from the shipment of an international target drone delivery, offset partially by increased tactical drone related revenues. KGS second quarter twenty twenty five revenue was up $64,000,000 year over year from the 2024, with organic revenue growth of 27.1%, excluding the impact of the February 2025 acquisition of certain assets of Norden Millimeter. Second quarter twenty twenty five cash flow used in operations was $10,600,000 primarily reflecting the working capital requirements related to the revenue growth impact in our receivables by approximately 36,000,000 increases in inventory and other assets of over $18,000,000 primarily reflecting increases in our microwave electronics and rocket systems businesses, which related to anticipated future deliveries and ramps in production as well as investments we are making related to certain development initiatives in our Unmanned Systems business. Free cash flow used in operations for the 2025 was $31,100,000 after reflecting funding of 20,500,000.0 expenditures. As we planned, we are continuing to make investments to expand and build out certain of our manufacturing and production facilities in our microwave products, rocket system, and hypersonic businesses to meet existing and anticipated customer orders and requirements, and investing in related new machinery, equipment, and systems.

Speaker 3

Consolidated DSOs, or days sales outstanding, decreased from one hundred and four days in the first quarter to one hundred and three days at the end of the second quarter, reflecting the revenue growth and the timing of milestone billings. Our contract mix for the 2025 was 65% fixed price, 31% cost plus, and 4% time and material. Revenues generated from contracts with the U. S. Government during the second quarter were approximately 71%, including revenues generated from contracts with the DoD, non DoD, federal government agencies, contracts.

Speaker 3

In the '25, we generated 12% of revenues from commercial customers and 17% from foreign customers. An operational priority remains the hiring and retention of skilled technical labor across the company, with total Kratos headcount of 43.16 at the end of the second quarter, as compared to 42.26 at the end of the first quarter. Now moving on to financial guidance. The guidance we provided today includes our expectations and assumptions for our supply chain's execution and for employee sourcing, hiring retention and the related cost. We have increased our full year '25 revenue guidance from $1,260,000,000 to $1,285,000,000 to $1,290,000,000 to $1,310,000,000 reflecting an organic revenue growth rate of 11% to 13% over 2024 and increased our adjusted EBITDA guidance from 112,000,000 to $118,000,000 to $114,000,000 to $120,000,000 Our third quarter revenue guidance of $315,000,000 to $325,000,000 reflects an estimated organic growth rate of 12% to 15% over 2024.

Speaker 3

Our guidance continues to include the impact of increased material and subcontractor costs on certain of our multiyear fixed price contracts, specifically in our unmanned systems target drone business, where we have experienced cost growth from certain ancillary materials on our targets and for which we are unable to seek recovery from the customer until the renewal of future production lot contracts occurs. We are continuing to aggressively manage costs where we can minimize the impact to our margins. Our forecasted second half of the year ranges include the sale of certain products that are completed and ready to be delivered once we receive certain government approvals. Out of an abundance of caution, we have not included a contribution from these expected revenues and the related profits until the fourth quarter. If the necessary government approvals are received earlier, possible these contributions could be made in the third quarter.

Speaker 3

Since quarter end, we have paid off our entire term loan balance of approximately $180,000,000 Therefore, any interest expense should be minimal in the 2025. Our $200,000,000 revolving line of credit remains undrawn except for approximately $10,000,000 of letters of credits outstanding and available to the

Speaker 2

company. Eric? Thank you, Deanna. We'll turn it over to the moderator now for questions.

Operator

Thank you. Our first question comes from the line of Michael Ciarmoli of Truist Securities. Please go ahead, Michael.

Speaker 4

Hey, good evening, guys. Thanks for taking the questions. I guess Eric or Deanna, just on the guidance, I mean, even the results, it sounded like you've got broad based strength. I don't know if there was any pull forward, but the second half implied revenues down versus the first half. I know you just talked to maybe some potential delays, but anything to read into that?

Speaker 3

Nothing to read into it. There was the timing of a hypersonic mission that was originally anticipated later in the year and that occurred in the second quarter.

Speaker 4

Okay, got it. Then just if you could, with the Valkyrie being tagged as a program of record, you've got multiple production lots. Can you just walk us through the mechanics of when you get a contract? What might happen? I mean, don't know if you've disclosed pricing, but presumably you can take an immediate recognition of revenue and you could seemingly get a good cash tailwind.

Speaker 4

So is that something we should expect in

Speaker 5

the near term with all the progress that Valkyrie is having?

Speaker 3

So I'll address your question as far as process and how that would occur. So you're correct. So when we receive a contract award since we have leaned forward and have built these, we're on the second production lot of 12. When we receive a contract, I think the hypothetical example Eric used was quarter for 15 at 10,000,000 a piece. So if all those are fully complete, then revenue would be recorded at contract signing of $150,000,000 If they're, say, 50% complete or 70% complete, let's say if they're 50% complete, then $75,000,000 would be recorded, And then as the continued build out occurs, the revenue would be recorded until completion.

Speaker 4

Okay, got it. Last one and I'll jump off. Eric, you didn't mention mock TB. I think there was $400,000,000 in the reconciliation bill. Does that give you even greater confidence?

Speaker 4

I know that was kind of anchoring the growth in '26.

Speaker 2

Absolutely, and you're correct. There are almost $400,000,000 in the big beautiful bill for mock TB. Our hypersonic franchise, including MachTB is going to knock it out of the park over the next several years. So we feel great and we're coordinating now with the supply chain for a very, very significant ramp in '26 accelerating into '27.

Speaker 4

Okay, great. Thanks guys. I'll jump

Speaker 6

back in the queue.

Speaker 3

Thanks.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Peter Arment of Baird. Please go ahead, Peter.

Speaker 7

Yes. Good afternoon, Eric and Deanna. Congrats on all the wins you're stacking up. Eric, can you maybe talk about your Target Drone business just in the scope of Golden Dome? I know there's an industry day going on at Golden Dome, there's not a lot of details out.

Speaker 7

But how should we think about how Golden Dome impacts your target drone business?

Speaker 2

Hi Peter, I'm glad you asked the question. In my opinion, I'm the CEO, I drink the Kool Aid. There's no company in the country on a relative basis better positioned for Golden Dome than Kratos, including Target and let me just summarize why. On the space segment, we will be involved with the ground command and control and telemetry tracking and control on space. We are already under contracts for projects related directly or tangentially with Golden Dome and that's gonna increase.

Speaker 2

We are the hardware merchant supplier on radars, battle command systems, and interceptors for every prime for virtually every platform. So we're going to be involved there and now to your question, once Golden Dome is up, it's going to need to be tested and this is going to take hypersonic targets, cruise missile targets, jet drone targets, ballistic missile targets, all of which Kratos is the market leader. So we are, if this goes, this is going to be a significant impetus for our company including in our target drone business.

Speaker 7

Appreciate that. And then just last quarter you kind of stack ranked for us and you mentioned kind of over a kind of a three year outlook. You kind of put hypersonics as one and engines franchises And you kind of said, tactical drones will wait for customer decisions, but it sounds like those decisions are being made. Does that change how you view where the rankings would be for that?

Speaker 2

Right now the rankings remain our hypersonic franchise, no question. I'm gonna go with my base case. Number two, our air defense, missiles, systems, radars, battle systems, all that hardware, that's moved into number two now. It's staggering, the orders that we're getting and that are coming and you can read about the systems in the press and again we're the merchant supplier on these. Third is gonna be the engines.

Speaker 2

As I said, we're heading into low rate initial production for '26 and into full rate production in '27 on lots of engines for new low cost cruise missiles and drones. Ifwhen tactical drones occur, it could leapfrog and go into one or two if that happens. But again, that's not in our base case, it's not in our forecast.

Speaker 7

Appreciate it, thanks. I'll jump back in the queue.

Speaker 2

Thank

Operator

you. Our next question comes from the line of Josh Sullivan of The Benchmark Company. Your line is open Josh.

Speaker 7

Hey, good afternoon, Eric, Deanna.

Speaker 2

Josh.

Speaker 8

Clearly, it's been very strong year for drones between executive orders, success memo, industry air shows highlighting low cost drones and Kratos model obviously lines up nicely with these trends. But one of the big questions we continue to get from investors is just the obvious outlier here continues to be the Air Force.

Speaker 9

Should we be thinking the Air Force drone posture is just going

Speaker 8

to more be on the exquisite side and the other branches are going to lead on the low cost attributable side or is that how it's gonna play out or do you sense anything's gonna change sooner than later?

Speaker 2

I have to be obviously, and I appreciate the question. We get those questions a lot too. I have to be very, very careful. I'll never speak for the customer. I can, I will say that recently representatives of the Air Force have been saying publicly that maybe less than exquisite, more affordable and in higher quantities is a better way to go than exquisites that haven't even flown yet?

Speaker 2

So we're seeing some of that out there. I'm not going to speak for the customer ever, but that's some of the public remarks they've been making.

Speaker 8

And I guess maybe a follow-up to just Peter's question on US Golden Dome target needs, but given the investment in Europe, I mean, defense posturing over there, should we expect a similar need for target drones in Europe? And then would those carry higher FMS like margins?

Speaker 2

That's an excellent question. The answer is yes and yes, and they would probably be either FMS or direct commercial because the Europeans as we know, target is to increase their defense spend up to 5% of GDP. I don't know if they're gonna get there, but they're definitely increasing it. And they're going to be buying Patriot and THAAD and LTAMDS and IBCS and I can go on and on, US systems, because very candidly their industrial base doesn't do theirs right now. When you see systems like that being sold, Kratos target drones go with those systems.

Speaker 2

So as this global recapitalization of strategic air defense systems, missiles, radars, satellites goes, Kratos' target drones are going with them and our margins on those are significantly higher than they are here in The U. S. Because they're as you mentioned, they're either FMS or the direct commercial.

Speaker 6

Got it.

Speaker 2

Thank you for

Operator

the time.

Speaker 2

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Mike Crawford of B. Riley Securities. Please go ahead, Mike.

Speaker 10

Thank you. If if you had to rank certain missile programs that you're on with microelectronics, Patriot up there at the top or SM-three or is it kind of all of the above?

Speaker 2

I can't talk specifically, but in Kratos, are involved with Patriot, we are involved with that. We are involved with indirect fires. We are involved with SHORAD, short range air defense, all these when I say we're involved, we build them. Integrated battle command system, we built that, long range hypersonic weapon, on and on. We are involved in virtually every one of them and the associated radars, Tippie two, Tippie six, Sentinel, not the ICBM, the radar Sentinel, etcetera.

Speaker 10

Okay, thank you, Eric. And then just with all of these new facilities you're standing up in Oklahoma, Israel, all over the place, are all of those still on track as originally guided for LRIP and potential full rate production or any any changes there?

Speaker 3

It's it's gonna depend on some of the build schedule and the construction. So right now, we we still have them reflected in our 25 numbers projections. There may be some just depending on construction build out. Some of it may slip into 26.

Speaker 10

Okay. Thanks, Deanna. And then final question is, should we expect you to start another Valkyrie spiral before award or are we now moving to the point where you're going to get awards before you need to do that again?

Speaker 2

I'm not going to comment on that right now. I can't get I'm not going to get ahead of these two of the customers.

Speaker 10

Okay, all right. Thank you so much.

Speaker 6

Yep.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Jonathan Sigman of Stifel. Please go ahead, Jonathan.

Speaker 5

Hello, Eric and Deanna. Thanks for taking my question.

Speaker 2

Hi, John. Hi.

Speaker 5

So you commented on the big beautiful bill and having Mach TV listed. It also listed a billion and a half for low cost cruise missiles, 600,000,000 for industrial base for solid rocket motors, and then two seventy million for the Marine Corps unmanned combat aircraft. So seemed pretty relevant to you guys from my point of view, just wanted to kinda get your confirmation of that and if there's other competing programs that might have, their hands in some of those, incremental budget dollars. Thank you.

Speaker 2

I confirm exactly what you just said. And on the low cost cruise missiles, think Kratos low cost jet engines.

Speaker 5

That's really helpful. And then I'll just ask another question on your partner at Prometheus likely consumed a lot of their missiles in the effective defense in Israel last in June. Just can you give us a sense if that those interceptors they used, are they relevant to the JV that you're building?

Speaker 2

Without naming any systems, they're absolutely relevant. And the indication from our partner right now is from multiple tens of thousands of motors and energetics that Prometheus will be building for exactly what you just said.

Speaker 5

Is there any opportunity to maybe accelerate that capacity or even expand it given how much demand signals are globally for that those programs?

Speaker 2

We are It's slow because we've already ordered most of the main mixing equipment and other equipment that we need, it's coming. As I mentioned, I mentioned the Chief Operating Officer, Prometheus has hired a number of other executives. There is opportunity to accelerate, but it's not significant. I don't wanna mislead here, it's not significant. We've got the location, construction, we've got the ground being broken, it's all going.

Speaker 2

There is significant opportunity for the business to expand. As I think you know, when we first announced this, the immediate and primary objective is to take care of our partner Rafael and to take care of the Israeli needs because we have the backlog. However, because we have that and we've modeled this all out, we will have such a throughput in the factory, our cost rates will be extremely competitive. They will be better competitive than anybody else's. So we have already begun in person discussions, myself, with Rafael, with Primes on what Prometheus will be building for them.

Speaker 2

So that is the second part of the strategy to be a merchant supplier leveraging off of our big anchor tenant that closes the business case.

Speaker 5

Thank you for the comments.

Speaker 2

Yes, sir.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Colin Canfield of Cantor Fitzgerald. Please go ahead, Colin.

Speaker 6

Hey. Thank you for the question. Maybe going back to the x 58 program map. If you think about the kind of the variants that you listed and the awards that are looming between Marine Corps and and either Air Force or Navy. The other variance seem to suggest, you know, similar kind of quantities of drones over a multiyear period.

Speaker 6

So as we think of kind of production scaling, and we take apart the part that kind of five categories you listed and assume, call it, you know, 10 to 20 drones per category. Is it fair to characterize the X58 production schedule as being able to deliver, call it a 100 drones per year over the next five years?

Speaker 2

The capability right today, right now, we can deliver 50 a year. We have to get the supply chain and everything which I mentioned we're getting ready. Okay, The way we've set the facility up is we have an option, we can pull a trigger and we can expand the facility, we get an additional autoclave and we could get to 100. So that has all been planned out in our program and manufacturing production plan, Yes.

Speaker 6

Got it. And then just taking the $10,000,000 price tag that we considered, do you think it's fair to maybe characterize and just assume the other goodness in the business, is it fair to characterize Kratos' revenue as being able to double over the next, call it, three years?

Speaker 2

Oh, yeah. In our upside case, absolutely. Not the base case, not the upside case. Sure.

Speaker 6

Okay. Got it. I appreciate the color. I'll hop back in the queue. Thank you.

Speaker 6

Thank

Operator

you. Our next question comes from the line of Seth Siffman of JPMorgan. Please go ahead,

Speaker 11

Hey, thanks very much. Good afternoon and nice results. Wanted to ask, just so we understand in the model, the goodness that came in KGS as a result of the hypersonic event, Was that kind of pulled forward from late in the year? It seems a little early for mock TB or was that something separate? And then when we think about the increase in the revenue guidance for the year, is that more in is that in KGS or is that in unmanned?

Speaker 2

I'll the first part and Deanna will take the second. I cannot comment on the hypersonic mission that we did. I can't do it. I'm sorry. I can't say anything about it.

Speaker 2

So that's on the first part of your question. Go ahead Deanna.

Speaker 3

Yeah, and on revenue guide, I left that's primarily in KGS.

Speaker 11

Okay. Got it. Got it. And then just as a follow-up, with the debt pay down, you probably end the year with, I don't know, $625,000,000 of cash, something like that. How do we think about what you wanna do with that and the investment requirements as we go into '26 and beyond?

Speaker 3

Yeah, and your cash number may be a little high set because we did use $180,000,000 to pay down the debt. And our guidance is a use of 80 plus million this year. But but it'll it will still be a a fairly sizable number. So right now, it's it's we're, you know, generating interest income a couple percent, about 4%, the best rate we can get right now.

Speaker 2

On the second part, Anaconda, I believe we're gonna win. It'll be sole source. It'll be significant. Helios, I believe we're gonna win. It will be sole source, it will be significant.

Speaker 2

When God willing we win these and they're announced and we describe what they are and the facilities we have to build and these will be multi decade type programs, You'll understand what we're doing here. Also Poseidon, the reason I did not talk about Poseidon previously, this is so big and if it's announced by the customer, you'll understand why we called it Poseidon. It's so binary and I don't wanna call it a flyer, but I wasn't better than 50% confident we'd win and we won. That's gonna take on a new facility and when again, if it comes out what this is, you're gonna go, yeah, we see what they're doing here and what's happening here. And those are just some, we had some other ones that we're chasing, I think we're gonna get in Q1, Nemesis, Vulcan, Hermes.

Speaker 2

But Seth, what happening here is the government customer if they have a viable alternative to a traditional that's qualified. They're encouraging us to bid and we're winning. Deanna and I just did a bid review yesterday on another multi several $100,000,000 opportunity that we're priming on, we've been encouraged to bid prime by the customer. And so our plan macro level the capital we raised is exactly what we said. We are taking advantage of what is happening geopolitically and the change in policies and we are going to build this company and sometime probably in 2728, the production that we're outputting is going to exceed the investments we're making and then we're gonna become a significant multi decade, multi year excuse me, cash flow generator.

Speaker 2

We're positioning ourselves for that, that's what we're doing. And the opportunities, the number of opportunities, even since we did the equity raise, they continue to approach us. It's really fascinating what's happening here. So that's the plan with the capital.

Speaker 11

Excellent, that's very helpful, thanks.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Ken Herbert of RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead, Ken.

Speaker 9

Yeah. Hey, good afternoon, Eric and Deanna.

Speaker 2

Hi,

Speaker 9

Kevin. Maybe Eric or Deanna, just to follow-up on that line of thinking, you're obviously using approximately $80,000,000 this year to build out capacity. You just outlined a significant number of new opportunities that seem to be growing almost daily. How do we think about with the better revenue outlook into 'twenty six potentially, is free cash flow a greater use in '26? Can you just directionally sort of talk about how you're looking at investments today and how we should think about maybe the cash flows over the next couple of years to support the growth?

Speaker 3

Yeah, so on the CapEx, I think we'll continue to be elevated in 2026. As I mentioned earlier to, I think, Mike's question related to CapEx, so we guided this year January to 135,000,000 Some of that may slip into '26. What is not included in the CapEx or the investments for '25, which will be included in '26, will be the build out of some of these other facilities that we've talked about. If we are successful for Anaconda and for Helios, in addition, the Prometheus JV, as you know, we have a 50% partnership for a total of 185,000,000. So that's gonna be, let's call it $85.90 ish million.

Speaker 3

That will probably be over a course of two years for '26 and '27. So that addresses the investment side of it. And then on the working capital side, I think working capital will continue to, there will be a use because of the growth as we've seen in this quarter and the prior quarter, but this quarter more so, the increase from, inventories and receivables and just leaning forward on that. We negotiate the best payment terms we can with the customer to be able to get that funding as soon as possible. But that initial outlay, especially for growth rates that we're talking about, I believe we'll continue to see that in 'twenty six.

Speaker 9

Okay, that's helpful. Thank you, Deanna. And as we think about sort of the investments across the board, obviously you're leaning into working capital to help de risk supply chain to the extent to which you can. Where's your confidence level across your suppliers as you build this up? And are there any particular areas of risk you'd call out that as much as you're de risking from a working capital and investment standpoint, still really sort of keep you up at night as you think about executing to what could be some pretty aggressive contract terms?

Speaker 2

Yep, are, what's the most important part or subsystem? It's the one you don't have. And so, I'm using numbers, 99% of our supply chain is good. We have backup sources, we have alternative sources, we have multiple qualified sources, but there is still one or 2% where only one guy does it. And as you know, we've been trying to vertically integrate.

Speaker 2

We are machining, milling, three d printing, additive manufacturing, numerous parts for our engines, our hypersonic systems, etcetera down in Birmingham, Alabama. But there is still a handful or two suppliers to us that are qualified by the military, the government. They will not or have not to date approved us to go qualify anybody else. They are sole source to us and thus far delivery schedules have not been a problem impacting our and contractually required delivery schedules. However, we have two or three out there that are really expensive and they are increasing their prices.

Speaker 2

And it has been impacting our margins and these are on a couple three programs that they're coming up for us, we're sole source, we're coming up for another three or five year contract award in the next year or two, where we will present the actuals to the government and then we'll get reimbursed for those costs going forward. So that's the risk right now. I'm not seeing it that anybody's gonna stiff us, but the cost of like two or three is really high because they've got the keys to the kingdom. Thanks, Eric.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Anthony Valentini of Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead, Anthony.

Speaker 12

Hey, guys. Thanks for the question. Eric, I just want to if we can talk about the Marine Corps program of record for a second. And in terms of like what exactly needs to happen between where we are today and it actually being an official program of record that you guys have won. And is there any chance that that does not happen or they bring in another competitor?

Speaker 12

If you can just kind of give us a little bit of a feel for that, that would be helpful.

Speaker 2

Good afternoon and I hate to give these answers, I cannot comment any further than what has been published publicly. I cannot, and I apologize sincerely, I can't do it. Can't do it. Okay.

Speaker 12

No worries. Why don't we focus on some of the other growth vectors? In terms of the GEK business, think that you mentioned you think it could be a billion dollar business. Can you just talk about maybe like the timeframe for that and then maybe similarly, I think you made some similar comments on Prometheus in the past. How big can that get and how quickly do you think you guys could get there?

Speaker 2

Yeah, so on the first one on GEK, what's happening out there with cruise missiles and drones is significant. I was just reading about a new one that's coming out today. The facility will be up and running, think '27 just to be safe, think in '27, we'll get into production late twenty seven, let's say we get into full rate production, 08/29, that's when it could be material for us and think fiftyfifty on that with us in GE, so 2829. Prometheus, think '27. That will ramp very, very quickly because of the previous question I answered.

Speaker 2

We're doing multiple products across multiple platforms and we're doing both the solid rocket motor and the energetic. I would think the same type of a thing, I would think 2829.

Speaker 12

And is that a billion dollars as well or is there a different value there?

Speaker 2

Yeah, no, I'm looking at evaluation on these things, the valuation of above at least a billion dollars based on what we're seeing. When I say we, us and our partners are seeing out there with other companies and the valuations that are being put them on them, absolutely, we're looking at a billion dollar valuation on each once we get into production, absolutely.

Speaker 12

Okay, great. And then maybe the last one, I think around this time last year, you'd made a comment about, like there training programs out there that could be pretty large and incremental, to where you guys were at. Could you just give us an update on that maybe?

Speaker 2

Standby. Standby. And I'm saying that very affirmatively. I can't say I can't say anything else. Standby.

Speaker 12

Okay. Great. Thank you, Eric. I appreciate your time.

Operator

Okay. Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Trevor Walsh of Citizens. Please go ahead, Trevor.

Speaker 11

Great. Hey, Eric and Deanna, thanks

Speaker 13

for taking the questions. Maybe just to clarify a little bit more on, Prometheus. It sounds like the business case, the base case of that is obviously with Rafael, and that makes makes sense. Is there anything when you go beyond that from a competitive perspective where that the upside case there just becomes a little bit more, I guess, elements there from just

Speaker 7

kind of what others in

Speaker 13

the market might be doing? And can you kind of go through kind of how that maybe looks from what you're seeing? And I guess just given in the context of the announcement that came from particularly to the solid rocket motor kind of market.

Speaker 2

Yeah, as I mentioned a few minutes ago, are, us and our partner Rafael are looking at this, there are two phases. They're concurrently. Phase one is to satisfy Rafael and the Israeli Ministry of Defense's demand for solid rocket motors and energetics. Number two that we're running parallel is to be a merchant supplier of solid rocket motors to certain primes that we have already been engaged with. I've been engaged with some of them for over a year now on this before we did this, we are in very deep discussions with on what we're going to be doing with them.

Speaker 2

That's the upside case. There's the base case with our partner, there's the upside case that both our partner and I are gonna make, we're going to make it happen. We're going to execute it and I can assure you that the potential customers are motivated. Don't always believe everything you read out there. There's fact and there's fiction.

Speaker 2

And as you know, we deal with fact here. And so we're very confident in what Prometheus will be both base case and as a merchant supplier.

Speaker 13

Got it, that's helpful. Maybe just one quick follow-up, for the Poseidon announcement, I understand the $750,000,000 in total. Can you just give us a sense when that starts to ramp? Is that kind of an annual run rate or what just overall kind of just broad strokes how that looks once it gets going?

Speaker 2

Yes. So we anticipated, we felt confident in this. We've actually already signed a lease and on the new facility that's gonna be built out, this will be obviously and when this becomes more publicly available, you'll see what, it's a military grade secure facility and what gonna be doing. Facility will be done '27. Think production it's gonna really start to ramp '28, '29 production.

Speaker 8

Great. Thanks. Appreciate the questions.

Speaker 6

Yeah.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Sheila Kahyaoglu of Jefferies. Please go ahead, Sheila.

Speaker 14

Hey, Eric, Deanna. Thank you so much and great quarter. Eric, maybe if you could talk about you have so many programs in the hopper. If you could talk about next steps we should think about with the DoD and funding dollars flowing through. And Poseidon specifically, any sort of comments on how it came about?

Speaker 14

Was it a competitive RFP process? How you got chosen by the prime? Yeah, how did that work?

Speaker 2

Yep, was absolutely competitive. It was extremely, and this is on Poseidon. It was absolutely competitive. It was very competitive. And this is why I very candidly, I didn't talk about it like I talk about other ones where I think we have a clear line of sight and we have competitive differentiators that we're gonna win.

Speaker 2

So it was very competitive, we were fortunate enough pull it off. As I mentioned before, we call it Poseidon for a reason, when it becomes public, you'll see why. And as I mentioned, this will be a big flywheel stability cash generator. This will reduce our rates because of the structure, which will make us more competitive on other bids. Sheila, is an incredibly strategic win that the team did.

Speaker 2

The team knocked it out of the park with us. Oh, and let say something else, I'm really glad you asked this Sheila. Let me say something else, there are multiple Kratos divisions involved in this, helping to build what we're going to be building and I believe that's one of the key reasons why we won. Because this customer, and again when this comes out you'll see who this customer is, this customer was looking for surety. I like to say one neck to choke and with us, we're very vertically integrated on this because of our capabilities.

Speaker 2

And I think that was a primary differentiator in our win thesis.

Speaker 14

Great, no, that's awesome. And maybe if we could, Eric, if you have any commentary on how we should track program performance or next steps with the DoD and funding allocation.

Speaker 2

Sheila, are you talking overall at a macro level or this program?

Speaker 14

Both decided and the next three biggest drivers as you're looking at watch items.

Speaker 2

So these watch items, I wanna make sure I answer the right question. Are these watch items that we've won or these ones that I'm chasing?

Speaker 14

No, that you've won.

Speaker 2

Okay, yeah. The biggie, let's go to the big beautiful, let's go to the reconciliation bill. Don't quote me on this, but of the $150,000,000,000 I think $118,000,000,000 of it is supposed to be spent or obligated in the next twelve months. So in our hypersonic franchise, including MOFT B, I think we should see a significant uptick for Kratos' hypersonic franchise relative to what's in that reconciliation bill and what's supposed to be obligated. Very similar to a drone program that was mentioned that's in the reconciliation bill.

Speaker 2

I believe that that's going to be obligated and under contract very soon and it's got to be obligated in the next twelve months. Relative to small drones and engines, I believe we're going to start receiving, we're designed in on a number of small cruise missiles, we're designed in. I'm under NDA, I can't tell you which ones yet. I believe we're going to see the money start flowing on small cruise missiles directly related to that 1,500,000,000 that's in the reconciliation bill that's now law. So those are some you can track directly.

Speaker 2

Another big one for us is the Sentinel intercontinental ballistic missile with our outstanding partner Northrop, which I gotta give accolades to. They're doing a hell of a job on Sentinel, Northrop is. Take a look at what Northrop is saying about Sentinel and you can basically flow that down to us. That's one we don't talk about, but that's a multi $100,000,000 development program for us that's gonna be ramping starting next year in '26 and '27. Then it'll go into production, it'll ramp even further.

Speaker 2

That's when you can track the funding on as well. So there are four or five where you're gonna be able to track the funding flows top level and to Kratos pretty easily.

Speaker 14

Awesome, thank you so much, appreciate it.

Speaker 2

Yep, yep.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Andre Madrid of BTIG. Please go ahead, Andre.

Speaker 15

Good afternoon, Eric and Deanna. Thanks for taking the questions.

Speaker 2

Good afternoon. Hi, Andre.

Speaker 15

Looking at the, you know, the the down select on Valkyrie with the Luftwaffe, it's kind of telegraphed a couple of quarters ago and you mentioned back then that it would be DCS versus FMS. How do you see this impacting the margin profile as that program ramps up? I mean, is a lot further out, but I'm just curious if you can maybe give some color as to the difference versus what it would look like under FMS.

Speaker 2

Yep, so I envision it's gonna be very similar to what we're doing with our target drones. So with our target drones when they're in full rate production, we make somewhere around 12% or 13% in The US with the US federal government. Internationally, we can make 20 to 25% internationally under a direct commercial. I'm not gonna say it's gonna be those exact numbers because I don't know yet, we're going through the ROM right now, but trajectory is I believe it's going to be very similar to that because it is direct commercial.

Speaker 15

Got it, got it. That's very helpful. And then maybe just talking, I know you mentioned fixed price mix earlier in the call. How should we expect that trend through the out years? I know it's been a big focus for this administration.

Speaker 15

And with the influx of new program starts, I guess, do we expect this mix to shift?

Speaker 3

There's a couple of large programs that we have that are cost type contracts. As those increase, we could see some change between that, but I think predominantly, we're still going to be predominantly fixed price and with cost plus increasing, but I think it's still going to be substantially fixed price.

Speaker 15

Got it, got it. If I could squeeze one more in, Norton Millimeter, maybe just explain a little bit more of the logic behind the acquisition, how it fits into the bigger picture.

Speaker 2

Yeah, so our microwave electronics business is currently headquartered, the biggest pieces in Israel. As we've talked about it, it's one of our fastest growing businesses and it's accelerating because we're helping our partners replenish the missile systems. Up until 2015, Kratos had one of the largest merchant suppliers of microwave electronics in The United States. We sold that business in 2015, very candidly, we were presented with a price that was very valuable to our shareholders. We were under a non compete in The US, we could not reenter The US microwave electronics market until, don't quote me, twenty twenty ish, something like that because we had signed that sale agreement.

Speaker 2

In 2021, 2022, our prime partners who as you know we work very closely with started coming to me and saying, we'd really like you to get back into the microwave electronic business and be a merchant supplier for missiles and radars and aircraft, etcetera, etcetera in The US. So we started building a team, we made a couple of small acquisitions, one of them being Norden and it's accelerating. I believe we are winning a lot, I don't talk about it. We don't talk about it, it's not time yet. But this time next year, I think we're going to be talking with you on programs we've won.

Speaker 2

And this is one of the highest, as you know, being a merchant supplier of microwave components and subsystems is one of the highest margins businesses out there. And this is an area, the microwave area and the communication area that if we were to do an acquisition, this is where we're going to do it. It'll be under this Israeli based US microwave area because for all the reasons you can think of, we know the customers, we have the partners, we know the Ministry of Defense, we know the primes here. So this a strategic thrust for us that we are being strongly encouraged by our customers and partners to go into and that they will give us programs.

Speaker 15

Excellent, excellent. Thank you both for the time.

Speaker 6

Thank you. Thank

Speaker 2

you.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Colin Canfield of Cantor Fitzgerald. Please go ahead, Colin.

Speaker 6

Hey, thank you for the follow-up. I think we've done a good job kind of going through manufacturing scaling and JVs across production, quantities and volumes and dollars. But as we think about the potential of kind of going to market with a services component, how do you think about kind of the x 58 as potentially servicing as a a good land and expand lever, especially as as folks kind of consider, you know, force protection, intelligence, and communications as potentially systems and systems opportunity?

Speaker 2

Brother, I'm sure I understand the question. Are you asking how do I think about with the Valkyrie going to market in a service type structure? Is what you said?

Speaker 6

Yeah, it's the concept of considering the drone for commercial, as we think about the international exports, right? And also the separate combat for base. I think there's been a big focus on The US side of doing production order quantities, right? And manufacturing type work. But at the end of the day, international partners are probably gonna want more of a services type offer, like a deal.

Speaker 6

So how do you kind of think about the X58 as kind of being that I got it.

Speaker 2

I it. I'm not sure based on what we're seeing and what we're doing with our international customers specifically related to Valkyrie and Airwolf and another one that I'm not talking about, that that's the case. Right what we're seeing and I think this ties into state department approvals and MTCR, no one talks about but it's very important. I think what they're looking at is acquiring US aircraft that are flying today that are ready to go and integrating their mission systems on it. And they're maintaining it with some of our support internationally.

Speaker 2

That's what Kratos is seeing right now. They get a flyaway aircraft, flyaway, it flies. They want for their specific mission application, their mission system or NATO's mission system if you will or a certain customer we're working with in The Pacific, their mission system, they want that on it. It'll be integrated and delivered that way. That's what we're seeing.

Speaker 6

Got it. Got it. And open source architecture is seemingly confirmed. Correct. As you think about more kind of industry or excuse me, company wide factors, how do you think about kind of maybe going through by each segment engineering around and getting secured supply for rare earth minerals and metals?

Speaker 2

That's a great question. So for the past couple of years, and we just did this again in the past couple of weeks, we go through with our six division presidents and we do, I don't want to say complete, we do as a complete scrub as we possibly can, not just what we're sourcing, but what our critical vendors are sourcing relative to rare earth and we make an assessment of where our inventory is, where our safety stock is on those parts and components that are relevant and also our suppliers. So we're doing the best we can to stay on top of that relevant to our supply chain.

Speaker 6

Excellent color, thank you.

Operator

Thank you. I would now like to turn the conference back to Eric DeMarco for closing remarks. Sir?

Speaker 2

Excellent. Great. Thank you everybody for joining us. Great questions today. Great interaction.

Speaker 2

We really appreciate it. And we look forward to chatting with you again when we report Q3.

Operator

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

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