NIKE Q2 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

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December 21, 2023

Key Takeaways

  • NIKE reported fiscal Q2 revenue up 1% reported (currency-neutral down 1%), EPS rose 21% to $1.03, gross margin expanded 170 basis points and inventory was down 14% versus prior year.
  • Due to uneven macro conditions—particularly in Greater China and EMEA—and softness in digital traffic amid heightened promotions, NIKE lowered its second-half revenue outlook to ~1% full-year growth, with Q3 slightly negative and Q4 up low single digits.
  • NIKE introduced a $2 billion Save-to-Invest program over three years by simplifying its product portfolio, boosting automation and streamlining the organization, with most savings earmarked for consumer-facing growth initiatives.
  • The company will lean on a multi-year innovation cycle centered on product innovation, storytelling and marketplace execution, prioritizing expansions in women’s, Jordan Brand and running to fuel long-term growth.
  • NIKE Digital had its strongest Black Friday week ever, Greater China brick-and-mortar grew double digits during National Day, and NIKE was the #1 sport brand on Tmall’s Double 11.
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Earnings Conference Call
NIKE Q2 2024
00:00 / 00:00

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Operator

Good afternoon, everyone. Welcome to Nike, Inc. Fiscal 2024 second quarter conference call. For those who want to reference today's press release, you'll find it at investors.nike.com. Leading today's call is Paul Trussell, Vice President of Corporate Finance and Treasurer. Now I would like to turn the call over to Paul Trussell.

Paul Trussell
Paul Trussell
VP of Corporate Finance and Treasurer at Nike

Thank you, operator. Hello everyone, and thank you for joining us today to discuss Nike, Inc.'s Fiscal 2024 second quarter results. Joining us on today's call will be Nike, Inc. President and CEO John Donahoe and our CFO Matt Friend. Before we begin, let me remind you that participants on this call will make forward-looking statements based on current expectations, and those statements are subject to certain risk and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially. These risk and uncertainties are detailed in Nike's reports filed with the SEC. In addition, participants may discuss non-GAAP financial measures and non-public financial and statistical information. Please refer to Nike's earnings press release or Nike's website, investors.nike.com, for comparable GAAP measures and quantitative reconciliations. All growth comparisons on the call today are presented on a year-over-year basis and are currency-neutral unless otherwise noted.

Paul Trussell
Paul Trussell
VP of Corporate Finance and Treasurer at Nike

We will start with prepared remarks and then open up for questions. We would like to allow as many of you to ask questions as possible in our allotted time, so we would appreciate you limiting your initial question to one. Thanks for your cooperation on this. I'll now turn the call over to Nike, Inc. President and CEO John Donahoe.

John Donahoe
John Donahoe
President and CEO at Nike

Thank you, Paul, and hello to everyone on today's call. Nike is the market leader in sport. It's a role we take seriously. We create innovation that pushes human potential. We expand the world of sport, inviting new generations all around the globe into the community of athletes. We fuel the energy and excitement of sport itself, both on a global stage and on the ground in community and cities everywhere. One thing that distinguishes Nike more than any other brand in the world is that we get our inspiration from athletes in sport. It was a great quarter for Nike and the athletes who inspire us. Here's just a few examples. Kelvin Kiptum broke the marathon world record wearing the Alphafly 3, which builds on our proprietary system of speed that continues to set the standard.

John Donahoe
John Donahoe
President and CEO at Nike

A'ja Wilson earned WNBA Finals MVP after leading the Las Vegas Aces to their second straight title. LeBron James and Anthony Davis led the Lakers to the first-ever NBA in-season tournament championship. Aitana Bonmatí won the women's Ballon d'Or, and Sha'Carri Richardson was named USA Track and Field's Female Athlete of the Year. Being inspired by world-class athletes like these keeps us focused on what's redefining what's possible. That's what sets us apart. No one changes the game like Nike, from our breakthrough innovation for toddlers with the Swoosh 1 shoe to being able to elevate beloved products like Kobes into an entire franchise, to NBA players increasingly choosing to play in the Sabrina 1, a shoe deeply resonating across gender. Again and again, it's Nike that pushes what's possible to break the status quo. Now, in addition to creating best-in-class innovation, great companies must also focus on strong execution.

John Donahoe
John Donahoe
President and CEO at Nike

That's what we did in Q2, delivering our second $13 billion quarter, this one on top of last year's extraordinary 27% growth. We drove more than 20% growth in earnings per share this quarter. Simply put, this is the result of relentless execution by our team in an uneven macro backdrop. Looking at holiday, we outpaced the industry, driving growth of close to 10%. Nike Digital had its strongest Black Friday week ever, and a record number of consumers shopped in our stores over the long Thanksgiving weekend. In Greater China, brick and mortar grew double digits during National Day holiday, and Nike once again outperformed the industry during Double Eleven, and Nike is the number one sport brand on Tmall.

John Donahoe
John Donahoe
President and CEO at Nike

These holiday results, when combined with Q2's earnings growth and our continued healthy inventory, showcase how we're executing against our priorities, even in the face of a highly promotional environment and increasing macro volatility. Last quarter, I talked about how we're getting back on our front foot, accelerating the flow of our innovation and executing with excellence across our winning formula of innovative product times distinctive storytelling times differentiated marketplace experiences. Let me give you a few examples of where we've demonstrated progress. Within our running business, we're driving deeper connections with the running community. We recently launched our most innovative trail shoe yet, the Ultrafly, at the world's pinnacle trail race. We hosted over 1,000 runners for a uniquely Nike experience, which drove energy and positive feedback from both elite runners and the broader trail running community.

John Donahoe
John Donahoe
President and CEO at Nike

We partnered with top RSG doors for a series of community activations centered on the Ultrafly and other key products like Pegasus Trail and Wildhorse. All this led to growth of over 20% in our trail running portfolio for the quarter. In global football, we're fueling growth through strategic only Nike athlete storytelling. As you know, we have a three-silo construct in men's football, having paired Erling Haaland with the Phantom boot, Jamal Musiala with the Tiempo, and Kylian Mbappé and Marcus Rashford leading the Mercurial. With the game's greatest showcasing our product superiority and our seamless execution to pull this innovation through the marketplace, all three franchises are up strong double digits, even lapping last year's strong performance with the men's World Cup. In lifestyle, we're driving a women's-led geo by geo marketing acceleration behind V2K, a standout shoe in our fast-growing retro running line.

John Donahoe
John Donahoe
President and CEO at Nike

It's being fueled by a tongue-in-cheek campaign that's resonated with this consumer and a creator partnership strategy that's delivered head-to-toe style inspiration into her preferred media channels. All this catalyzed the V2K to very strong sell-through in the quarter, with exciting potential for this style still to come. All three of these examples offer an early indication of the growth we aspire to. We have real opportunity to drive progress across many dimensions of our business, and that's our priority moving forward. At Nike, we like to say we're on the offense always. When we see something that needs solving, we don't wait around. We solve it. And so, as we look to the future, we know where we must focus. Three areas will always drive our distinction and competitive separation: product innovation, storytelling that connects, and marketplace execution.

John Donahoe
John Donahoe
President and CEO at Nike

When Nike's at its best, we create impact on a scale that can't be matched, grounded in sport, centered in youth culture, inviting consumers around the world into our brands. The second half of Fiscal 2024 represents the start of a multi-year product innovation cycle that will introduce new franchises, concepts, and platforms, elevating our full portfolio. While there'll be some key moments in the second half, this new innovation cycle will take some time to fully ramp up, given our size and scale. Now, we know we have an outsized opportunity to drive long-term profitable growth. We have areas of significant growth potential, like women's, Jordan Brand, and running, each of which requires focused investment to reach full potential. We also must get deeper traction on our key speed initiatives.

John Donahoe
John Donahoe
President and CEO at Nike

Today, we know we must be faster, increasing the pace of innovation, increasing the pace of market-to-consumer, and increasing our agility and responsiveness. To drive this, we'll embrace a significant savings plan to create investment capacity to fuel profitable growth at speed and scale. Areas of potential savings include simplifying our product portfolio, increasing automation and the use of technology, streamlining our organization, and leveraging our scale to drive greater efficiency. Let me just acknowledge that this work will be led with respect and thoughtfulness as we move to improve the ways in which we work and build a leaner and stronger company for the future. Matt will provide more detail on this later in the call. Now, we've made some progress as we look to accelerate growth in our business.

John Donahoe
John Donahoe
President and CEO at Nike

I want to walk through two key areas today where we're investing for future and further growth: our women's business and Jordan Brand. Both women's and Jordan are opportunities that are grounded in performance and the ability to drive culture and lifestyle, with the latter providing even greater scale and growth opportunities. First, let's discuss women's, which is already a roughly $9 billion business, and that's just the Nike brand excluding Jordan and Converse. Our women's business has grown high single digits on average over the past 3 years. And while we're encouraged by this progress, we now have line of sight into what we believe is the best plan we've ever had to accelerate growth in women's. Our plan makes us even more confident in serving her through sport and style. Today, about 40% of our members are women consumers.

John Donahoe
John Donahoe
President and CEO at Nike

They make up a bigger proportion of new members, and their demand per member is growing faster. We see great opportunity to better serve this consumer by responding to her needs across the spectrum of performance and lifestyle. Let me first touch on performance, where we're focused on innovating for her to create new opportunities we did not previously serve. We've now built a collection of bras and leggings across different price points. This includes our statement leggings, Zenvy and Universa, all of which are above $100, a price point we were not previously in. These leggings serve her with a whole new approach to fit and comfort, thanks to new material innovation. And we're holistically elevating our retail, presentation, and storytelling to help her find the right product for her exact needs. More and more women are joining our brand by purchasing these leggings.

John Donahoe
John Donahoe
President and CEO at Nike

In fact, all told, statement leggings fueled our fitness apparel growth in women's for the quarter. And in footwear, we're seeing very strong sell-through for the Motiva, a shoe with a comfortable and distinctive design that shows how we've dimensionalized performance into walking. And Free Metcon is also performing very well, serving her need for versatility by expanding a fitness shoe into comfortable everyday wear. And at the same time, when we look at women's lifestyle, we've established our leadership position in women's sportswear through a focus on style and comfort, with iconic franchises like Air Force 1, Dunk, Court, and Fleece, all of which drive continued momentum with new energy and design. And we're also fueling the rapidly growing retro running trend with our portfolio of styles like the Vomero 5, V2K, and P-6000.

John Donahoe
John Donahoe
President and CEO at Nike

In fact, even with us sequentially increasing the supply, demand for this entire line is so strong there remains tremendous opportunity to grow further. We're excited to scale these styles over the next few seasons. And so today, we're taking the right steps to serve our women consumer with energy and sharpness, and we're fully aligned in accelerating our offense to raise our game with an eye to the immense opportunity we see going forward. Now, let's discuss Jordan Brand, which is on a clear path to become the number 2 footwear brand in North America, the biggest brand not named Nike. We're fueling the strong momentum in Jordan by growing a Monday to Friday business with a more diverse product portfolio on top of our very successful launch business. Over the past few years, we've driven strong growth in the Jordan business by bringing more dimensions into the brand.

John Donahoe
John Donahoe
President and CEO at Nike

We're proving that Jordan can be more than retro, more than footwear, more than men's, and more than North America. An approach to growth will continue to bring life and growth over the coming years. This is just the beginning for Jordan Brand, as we see even greater growth potential through our plan for deeper investment, which for Jordan will come in areas like merchandising, marketing, and marketplace. For instance, today, Jordan Brand performance product is outpacing overall growth, with Jordan reigniting its on-court presence in basketball with the strongest signature portfolio ever, as Tatum, Luka, and Zion pushed the brand to new heights both on and off the court. Jordan's also expanding beyond basketball into, for example, golf, global football, and American football. Jordan women's and kids continues to lead the brand's overall growth.

John Donahoe
John Donahoe
President and CEO at Nike

Women's and kids' business share within Jordan has increased 7 points over the past 3 years. Jordan apparel is now a roughly billion-dollar business averaging almost 20% growth over the past 3 years. We're also building new dimensions in the iconic AJ1 franchise across high, mid, and low, as well as through women's-led dimensions such as the Elevate and the Brooklyn Boot. I'd also like to spotlight Jordan's strategic approach and success with our Remix footwear line, which again has already surpassed the billion-dollar annual revenue mark with high double-digit growth. Led by styles like the Max Aura and the Stadium 90, Remix has increased Jordan's accessibility through more affordable price points and an expanded distribution with key partners. Last but not least, Jordan's share from international markets continues to expand as we bring the brand to global cities in an authentic way.

John Donahoe
John Donahoe
President and CEO at Nike

This has shown up as we pilot the Jordan Destination tab in the Nike Commerce app in EMEA with stronger results. The Jordan World of Flight doors in Milan, Tokyo, and Seoul have emerged as the company's most productive retail concepts. The sky is the limit for Jordan as we continue to invest and explore what's possible for one of the world's leading brands. In the end, we are moving with confidence against the opportunities we see. Looking ahead to the next calendar year, we remain single-minded in our focus to compete and win. I wouldn't trade our position with anyone. With that, I'll turn the call over to Matt.

Matt Friend
Matt Friend
CFO at Nike

Thanks, John, and hello to everyone on the call. Nike's second quarter financial performance reflected our proactive marketplace management and disciplined execution with tremendous delivery by our teams in a dynamic environment. Revenue was up slightly versus the prior year, growing 1% on a reported basis as we compared to 17% reported and 27% currency-neutral revenue growth one year ago. Gross margins expanded despite a highly promotional marketplace. Combined with disciplined SG&A management, earnings per share and free cash flow accelerated. As I said last quarter, we believe we are turning the corner in driving more profitable and sustainable growth. At the same time, there were a number of puts and takes in the quarter. So before I walk through our financial results, let me share some perspective on our performance in light of current macro and consumer trends, as well as additional insight into our business direction.

Matt Friend
Matt Friend
CFO at Nike

Now, as you recall, we moved proactively in the prior year to liquidate excess inventory and reduce wholesale sell-in for the first half of Fiscal 2024. And while this dampened our reported revenue growth through Q2, total retail sales in the quarter grew across the marketplace, on top of double-digit growth in the prior year. ASPs were up across both footwear and apparel, and AURs grew across channels. Average order values among Nike members increased versus the prior year. Our higher-priced products, in particular, have been resilient, with our $100-plus footwear models driving strong growth in units sold across the marketplace. Overall, we have maintained lower markdown rates than many of our competitors. In the most impactful consumer shopping moments, Nike's brand strength created even greater separation. We delivered market-leading results in Greater China on Double 11.

Matt Friend
Matt Friend
CFO at Nike

Over the Black Friday and Cyber Week period, Nike Direct grew approximately 10% across North America, EMEA, and APLA. In Q2, Nike Direct once again led our growth, and wholesale shipments exceeded our expectations. Having said that, we are seeing indications of more cautious consumer behavior around the world in an uneven macro environment. Total retail sales across the marketplace fell short of our expectations, with softer demand outside of the key consumer moments. While Nike's store traffic continued to grow, we saw softness in digital traffic and higher levels of promotional activity across the marketplace. As a result, we are adjusting our channel growth plans for the remainder of the year. Looking to our product portfolio, our top franchises continue to drive strong full-price sales. But we intentionally manage the lifecycle of these models across the marketplace for long-term value.

Matt Friend
Matt Friend
CFO at Nike

Given the promotional environment and the cautious consumer behavior that we are seeing, we are stepping up our plans to reduce marketplace supply of our key franchises. Our goal is to focus Nike's brand heat and energy on what is new as we accelerate our product innovation cycle. We have seen encouraging signs from recent consumer activations around some of Nike's latest innovations and newness, and we intend to accelerate our pace through the Paris Olympics and beyond. While this will initially take some time, we are confident in our pipeline and the product journeys, stories, and consumer energy to come. Now, as you heard from John, our priority is to drive sustainable and profitable long-term growth while building a faster, more efficient Nike.

Matt Friend
Matt Friend
CFO at Nike

Since Fiscal 2019, our investments in accelerating Nike's consumer-direct vision have created new operating capabilities, added tens of millions of new members to our member base, and delivered a return of more than $12 billion of incremental revenue. However, we have also added complexity and inefficiency. In this competitive environment, we need to accelerate our pace of innovation, elevate our marketplace experiences, maximize the impact of our storytelling, and increase our speed and responsiveness, all in service of the consumer. To do this, we are creating investment capacity to fuel Nike's next phase of innovation, growth, and profitability. We are identifying opportunities across the company to deliver up to $2 billion in cumulative cost savings over the next three years, both up and down our P&L and across our value chain.

Matt Friend
Matt Friend
CFO at Nike

Some examples include simplifying our product assortment, improving supply chain efficiency, leveraging our scale to lower the marginal cost of operations, increasing automation and speed from data and technology, streamlining our organizational structure, reducing management layers, and enhancing our procurement capabilities. As we look to drive greater efficiency and productivity, we will reallocate and invest the majority of these savings to deliver the greatest consumer impact on our largest growth opportunities. Ultimately, we believe that building a faster and more efficient Nike will accelerate future growth and innovation and deliver long-term profitability, creating value for years to come. We will continue sharing updates over the coming quarters. Now, let me turn to our Nike, Inc. second quarter results. In Q2, Nike, Inc. revenue was up 1% on a reported basis and down 1% on a currency-neutral basis, following our strong top-line growth one year ago.

Matt Friend
Matt Friend
CFO at Nike

Nike Direct grew 4%, with Nike Stores up 9% and Nike Digital up 1%, while wholesale declined 3%. Gross margins expanded 170 basis points to 44.6% on a reported basis, driven by strategic pricing actions, lower ocean freight rates, improved supply chain efficiency, and modest markdown improvements, partially offset by higher product input costs. This included impact from approximately 60 basis points of unfavorable changes in net foreign currency exchange rates. SG&A grew 1% on a reported basis, favorable to our expectations, through disciplined expense management and some shifts in timing of spending. Our effective tax rate for the quarter was 17.9%, compared to 19.3% for the same period last year. Diluted earnings per share was $1.03, up 21% year-over-year. Nike inventory dollars are down 14% versus the prior year and down high single digits versus the prior quarter.

Matt Friend
Matt Friend
CFO at Nike

In total, Nike inventory dollars are down over $1.5 billion from the peak at the end of Q1 in the prior year, with days in inventory continuing to improve. Total footwear and apparel inventory units across the marketplace are down double digits versus the prior year. Now, let me turn to our operating segments. In North America, Q2 revenue declined 3%, with wholesale down 9% versus the prior year. Nike Direct grew 3%, with Nike Stores up 4% and Nike Digital up 2%. EBIT grew 2% on a reported basis. This follows extraordinary growth in Q2 of Fiscal 2023, with North America revenue up 31%, Nike Direct up 23%, Nike Digital up 31%, and wholesale up 37%. This quarter, we saw mid-single-digit retail sales growth with key partners, including DICK'S Sporting Goods, Finish Line, and Hibbett. Jordan and women's led our momentum in the marketplace.

Matt Friend
Matt Friend
CFO at Nike

With Jordan, Remix footwear grew double digits, and the AJ11 Gratitude release delivered the brand's largest shock drop ever. Within women's, Dunk, Free Metcon, and our $100-plus Statement leggings delivered strong growth. In addition, Structure 25 and Vomero 17, our latest updates for everyday runners, drove positive response from consumers and running specialty partners. In EMEA, Q2 revenue declined 3%, with wholesale down 8%. Nike Direct was up 7%, as Nike Stores grew 8% and Nike Digital grew 7%. EBIT declined 6% on a reported basis. As a reminder, this also compares to tremendous growth in Q2 of Fiscal 2023, with EMEA revenue up 33%, Nike Direct up 44%, Nike Digital up 62%, and wholesale up 28%. Against the backdrop of increased macro headwinds, we saw strong consumer response to newness and premium innovation. Our winterized running products drove positive sell-through, along with strong growth from Invincible, Vaporfly, and Ultrafly.

Matt Friend
Matt Friend
CFO at Nike

Mercurial and Phantom and Tiempo grew double digits, and our retro running styles, including V2K, P-6000, and Shox, continue to energize the marketplace. In Greater China, Q2 revenue grew 8% and wholesale grew 19%. Nike Direct declined 4%, with Nike Stores growing 16% and Nike Digital declining 22%. EBIT grew 1% on a reported basis, with multiple points of impact from foreign exchange. On the whole, we are seeing a highly promotional marketplace with increased macro headwinds, especially on digital. That said, Q2 was another strong quarter in brick and mortar, with continued improvement in full-price sales and sales in Nike-owned and partnered doors growing mid-teens versus the prior year. We also continue to see strong momentum with key strategic partners, including Topsports and Pou Sheng, and Nike continues to strengthen its lead as Chinese consumers' number one cool and favorite brand.

Matt Friend
Matt Friend
CFO at Nike

Turning to our product portfolio, performance outpaced lifestyle this quarter, with innovation and hyper-local storytelling resonating with consumers. We saw strong momentum in basketball, fitness, retro running footwear, and winterized apparel. Locally inspired Express Lane collections, including our street-dance-inspired Dunk and hyper-local Pegasus releases, were top choices for consumers. Overall, our inventory remains healthy, with units down and improved markdown rates versus the prior year. Looking ahead, we continue to closely monitor the operating environment. However, we remain confident in Nike's brand strength, our deep consumer connections, and our foundation for long-term growth in China. In APLA, Q2 revenue grew 10% and wholesale grew 7%. Nike Direct grew 15%, as Nike Stores grew 17% and Nike Digital grew 14%. EBIT grew 7% on a reported basis. Southeast Asia and India, Korea, and Mexico grew double digits, leading a record quarter for the geography.

Matt Friend
Matt Friend
CFO at Nike

Our Flipkart and Myntra platforms drove strong growth in India. Korea led record Member Day sales in the geography, and Mexico accelerated its digital momentum over the Buen Fin shopping holiday. We saw strong momentum across our portfolio, led by Jordan and Kids. Jordan Brand delivered strong growth in Remix footwear, AJ1 Essentials, and signature basketball. In Kids, lifestyle and global football grew double digits, with positive momentum from All Kids Fleece, Court Borough, and the Mercurial. All told, our team executed with tremendous focus and agility to deliver our Q2 results while managing through volatility. Last quarter, as I provided guidance, I highlighted a number of risks in our operating environment, including the effects of a stronger U.S. dollar on foreign currency translation, consumer demand over the holiday season, and our second-half wholesale order books.

Matt Friend
Matt Friend
CFO at Nike

Looking forward, the impact of these risks is becoming clearer, and as a result, we are adjusting our full-year financial outlook. Looking to the balance of the year, we expect Q3 reported revenue to be slightly negative as we again compare to double-digit growth in the prior year, and Q4 reported revenue to be up low single digits, with full-year reported revenue now growing approximately 1%. This new outlook reflects increased macro headwinds, particularly in Greater China and EMEA, adjusted digital growth plans based on recent digital traffic softness and higher marketplace promotions, lifecycle management of key product franchises, and a stronger U.S. dollar that has negatively impacted second-half reported revenue versus 90 days ago. I will also remind you that there are approximately 400 basis points of headwinds from supply disruptions and accelerated liquidation in the prior year.

Matt Friend
Matt Friend
CFO at Nike

We expect increased gross margin expansion in our second half, with Q3 margins expanding 160-180 basis points and Q4 margins expanding 225-250 basis points. We continue to expect full-year gross margins to expand 140-160 basis points. This reflects benefits from strategic price increases, improved ocean freight rates, and supply chain efficiency, partially offset by higher product input costs and approximately 60 basis points of impact from foreign exchange headwinds. We expect full-year SG&A growth to improve to low single digits, excluding restructuring charges, as we continue to tightly manage expenses and improve productivity and efficiency. Specifically, we expect SG&A dollars in both Q3 and Q4 to be modestly above our first-half run rate, excluding the charge. We anticipate a restructuring charge of $400-$450 million in our second half, primarily related to severance costs, which will be recognized largely in the third quarter.

Matt Friend
Matt Friend
CFO at Nike

We expect full-year SG&A, including the restructuring charge, to grow mid-single digits. We now expect other income and expense, including net interest income, to be $275 million-$325 million for the full year. We continue to expect our full-year effective tax rate to be in the high teens range. Taken all together, strong gross margin execution and disciplined cost controls are enabling us to offset softer second-half revenue and drive earnings growth. Excluding restructuring charges, we expect to deliver on our prior full-year earnings outlook. While we expect the operating environment to remain dynamic, we have been here before, and we know that moments like this are when Nike operates and executes at its best. We will stay on the offense, manage risk, optimize opportunity, and leverage our strengths to create even further competitive separation.

Matt Friend
Matt Friend
CFO at Nike

As we move forward, our focus is building a faster, more efficient Nike and embracing the opportunities in front of us to accelerate sustainable and more profitable growth. With that, let's open up the call for questions.

Operator

Thank you. If you would like to ask a question, please press * followed by the number 1 on your telephone keypad. If you would like to withdraw your question, again, press * 1. We also ask that you please limit yourself to one question. Your first question comes from the line of Matthew Boss from J.P. Morgan. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Matthew Boss
Matthew Boss
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst at J.P. Morgan

Great, thanks. So two-part question. John, could you maybe elaborate on the structural changes that you cited that, maybe in the pivot to the front foot on innovation, just the structural changes that you see supporting that and what that means for the product pipeline as we think to next year? And then, Matt, maybe footnote that portion of the press release relative to the commentary around the second-half. Just, how best to footnote this, and could you help break down the change in your second-quarter revenue or your second-half revenue outlook between retail and wholesale?

John Donahoe
John Donahoe
President and CEO at Nike

Yep. You wanna go first, Matt?

Matt Friend
Matt Friend
CFO at Nike

Sure.

Matt Friend
Matt Friend
CFO at Nike

All right. Yeah, let me go ahead and start. Matt, talking a bit about the environment that we're operating in right now and what's changed and what we're seeing. We obviously delivered a strong quarter and delivered revenue in line with the guidance we gave 90 days ago, and we are incredibly pleased with the disciplined execution and management of the marketplace, including our inventory being down 14% and Nike Plus partner inventory being down double digits versus the prior year. But what we saw in the quarter was a bifurcation of performance. And specifically, what I mean is that we saw incredibly strong performance for the Nike brand over the largest consumer moments, if you bookend from back to school in the prior quarter through Black Friday and Cyber Monday this quarter. But in the periods in between, we saw softer performance in the marketplace.

Matt Friend
Matt Friend
CFO at Nike

And as a result of that, total retail sales in the quarter were below the expectations that we set for ourselves 90 days ago. As a result of that, and specifically considering the promotional activity we see in the marketplace and some of the softness in digital, we've lowered our guidance for the balance of this year, and provided a little bit of sharpness for you on Q3 and Q4 in particular. Q3 really is, is reflective of the comparisons to the prior year, much like we, we anniversary this quarter. But overall, you know, we've, we've, we've taken a more prudent approach to our planning for the balance of the year, given the increased macro headwinds we're seeing in China and EMEA in particular, and the way that we've adjusted our digital growth downward, based on the traffic softness that we've seen and the higher marketplace promotions.

Matt Friend
Matt Friend
CFO at Nike

And so, you know, connected to what John will talk about in a second, our focus is on newness and innovation, particularly because in an environment like this where the consumer's cautious and we're seeing higher levels of promotional activity, it's newness and innovation which really creates brand distinction in this environment. And we're even seeing it in the context of recent releases and recent product introductions that we've had over the last 60-90 days. And Matthew, the first part of your question regarding the structural changes, you know, as you know, six months ago, we realigned our entire organization under Heidi O’Neill and Craig Williams as our co-presidents. And it is making a huge difference in our focus and ability to execute.

Matt Friend
Matt Friend
CFO at Nike

As you know, we're single-mindedly focused on aligning our entire team to drive what Nike does best: innovative product combined with distinctive storytelling combined with unique marketplace experiences. As Matt just said, we have a real focus. Heidi, Craig, and team's a real focus on newness and driving our next product innovation cycle, which will elevate our entire portfolio, right? This is what Nike does best. We're doing it with consistency and scale where we wanna break through. That's our focus. So you're seeing some you know, I'll maybe pick one example where you're seeing some early results. Look at what's happening in basketball right now, right? We are bringing fresh, innovative product at scale. So the past 6 months, we've launched Sabrina 1, LeBron 21, Tatum 1, Luka 2, the Ja 1.

Matt Friend
Matt Friend
CFO at Nike

You saw Ja come back two nights ago, the Ja 1 on Christmas Day. So that's creating huge momentum in basketball with great innovation. In the next three months, we add to that GT Cut, which is one of our most innovative shoes to date, the Book 1, which we think has great appeal on and off the court, and of course, Kobe, which we think has huge potential on an ongoing basis. So this is driving momentum both on the court through performance, like Nike does, innovation and performance, and off the court. That translates into lifestyle. You, you may have seen LeBron was wearing the Lunar Roam walking into his game the other night, and the Lunar Roam sold out in seconds the day we launched it two days ago.

Matt Friend
Matt Friend
CFO at Nike

And so what you're seeing is when we focus our guns on driving performance innovation, translating that into lifestyle, we can cut through and drive scale and consistency like no one else can. So as we look ahead, we're excited about the 10th anniversary of Air Max Day. That's coming up in March. The Air Max DN is our best Air Max product in years. You'll see us really get behind it. That will be, I think, both a successful shoe, but more importantly, can help lift the Air Max portfolio. With running, we'll be focusing on calendar 2024 will be the year of Pegasus for us with the Peg 41 and the Peg family refresh. And then we're getting excited and gearing up for the Olympics, right, in Paris this summer. That's when Nike shines its best.

Matt Friend
Matt Friend
CFO at Nike

You'll see us really using air as a source of innovation, both in performance and in lifestyle. And so you called it a pivot. I just think it's an acceleration, an alignment, and an acceleration of speed and focus is distinct, and we feel it.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Michael Binetti from Evercore ISI. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Michael Binetti
Michael Binetti
Senior Managing Director and Fundamental Research Analyst at Evercore ISI

Hey, guys. Thanks for taking our questions here, and thanks for all the detail today, particularly around some of the longer-term thinking in the business. Some of the longer-term commentary is pretty helpful. I'm just wondering if we can help true up the margin story for the next few years. I guess, is the $2 billion in cost savings we said the majority will be reinvested? If I try to think back to the longer-term target of getting the business to the high teens margins, this should go a long way. Is your feeling that the net amount of these efficiencies takes us to that multi-year target? And then considering, Matt, the commentary on the second-half revenues here, a lot of it sounds like it's macro in China.

Michael Binetti
Michael Binetti
Senior Managing Director and Fundamental Research Analyst at Evercore ISI

You know, maybe some help thinking about as we look past 2024. Do you have visibility yet to say, "Hey, we've got the controllables to help us offset some of the macro pressures that we see to make 2025 a, an algorithm revenue year"?

Matt Friend
Matt Friend
CFO at Nike

Sure, Michael. Well, let me start on the margins. You know, I think that this quarter was really a strong proof point with strong gross margin expansion and operating margin expansion. And the team's execution in gross margin in particular was really strong. You know, when we look at the drivers of it, it's a combination of recovery of the transitory headwinds, which we've been talking about for a couple years now, but also structural drivers, like price increases, which we've been able to sustain in this environment, and supply chain efficiencies, specifically meaning that we're improving our cost per unit as we deliver product into the marketplace. And so the underlying drivers that were behind our long-term margin goals are still there, and this quarter's a great proof point as we're on that trajectory.

Matt Friend
Matt Friend
CFO at Nike

The way to connect it to the Save to Invest plan is to think a little bit about the opportunities for us to be to drive more profitable growth as we look forward. And I've been talking for a couple quarters now about lowering our marginal cost of growth. And when I look back on some of the long-term targets that we've given, like SG&A as a percentage of revenue being below pre-pandemic levels, we've largely done it. But when we look at our resources today, we see greater opportunity for efficiency and effectiveness and reinvesting some of those resources for higher return opportunities, like John mentioned. And so that's really what we're focused on. I will remind you what I said on the call, which is that it is this isn't just SG&A.

Matt Friend
Matt Friend
CFO at Nike

The $2 billion Save to Invest plan is up and down the P&L, and it's across our value chain. So we will see benefits in SG&A, but we really are looking at the business holistically. Our focus as we look forward is to drive more profitable growth over the next several years. We remain confident in the long-term margin goals that we've been talking about. So as we approach 2025, we know that we're due to provide an update on those long-term goals, but we still remain confident on the endpoint. As it relates to the revenue, just hit it quickly. Yes, we are largely seeing adjustments based on increased macro headwinds in China, and in Europe. You know, the element that we can control in this is the commentary I made around managing our franchises. We have incredibly strong franchises.

Matt Friend
Matt Friend
CFO at Nike

In fact, we build dimensions to franchises. It's what we do to drive growth in our business. We continue to see those largest franchises driving year-over-year growth and selling at levels of, of full price realization that's above the goals that we've set for the business. But we know in an environment like this, when the consumer's under pressure and, and the promotional activity is higher, that it's new it's newness and it's innovation which causes the consumer to act. John just referenced a number of products, and product launches in the last 45-60 days where we're seeing an incredible amount of consumer energy in response to newness and new stories. We've seen either full sellouts or incredibly high levels of full price selling.

Matt Friend
Matt Friend
CFO at Nike

I won't rename all the products, but what it demonstrates is what we already know, which is that in this type of an environment, what we control is accelerating our pace of innovation and newness in order to give the consumer something to wanna continue to invest in this category. We think that we can do it like nobody else. So what you're hearing from us is a controllable effort to accelerate that pace, managing some of the larger franchises, and really accelerating as we go forward. That'll start with many of the items we've been talking about in our portfolio, through the balance of this year. Then the acceleration you're gonna see and feel, especially as we focus our brand heat on this newness, will carry us into 2025.

Matt Friend
Matt Friend
CFO at Nike

We know it's gonna take time because you gotta scale this newness and the innovation, and that's what we're focused on doing. So, our guidance for the second half from a controllable perspective is also reflecting on the proactive actions we're taking to manage our product portfolio, as we look forward.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Gabriella Carbone from Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead. Line is open. Gabriella, you're.

Gabriella Carbone
Gabriella Carbone
Equity Research Associate at Deutsche Bank

Oh, hi. Thank you so much for taking my question. Sorry about that. I want to dig in a little bit more on the running category, particularly. You know, how has your approach to this category maybe changed over the past year? And then I know you mentioned trail running. Are there any other products with this category? You mentioned scaling, moving ahead, but that you've been seeing good customer response and that you're excited about.

Matt Friend
Matt Friend
CFO at Nike

Yeah, Gabriella. We've made running a key priority. We talk about three areas we're really getting behind where we see huge growth opportunity, that being women's, Jordan, and running. And as you said, in running, we tend to break it into three categories, you know? And for us, it starts with road racing. That's the pinnacle. That's the peak. And as you know, in the past three to six months, we are dominating it through the Alphafly 3, which debuted in the Chicago Marathon. Kelvin Kiptum, as I mentioned in my remarks, set a world record. It's dominating the podiums for both men and women. And that'll actually be launching, available to the public in Q3. And as we see people going into racing into the Olympics, both marathon and otherwise, our performance running for racing is unmatched.

Matt Friend
Matt Friend
CFO at Nike

And then, as trail, as you mentioned, that's the fastest-growing segment, grew 20% for us. And we do what we do. It's innovation's driving it. So the Ultrafly Trail, which is the first trail shoe with a carbon fiber plate, that's, again, very Nike, very classic Nike, innovation, performance innovation, along with Peg Trail and Zegama, trail is growing fast partly because trail running's growing, but increasingly, trail shoes are becoming lifestyle shoes. They're being worn on the streets, particularly in EMEA and in Europe, but also around the world. So we'll continue to invest in great product there as well as, as I said in my remarks, at our ground game. And then in the road running or everyday running category, this is the area where we have the most work. And so we have good product.

Matt Friend
Matt Friend
CFO at Nike

You know, we had some nice wins in the core of the Structure 25 and the Vomero 17, which were our latest updates for everyday runners. They had positive response from consumers and specialty runners. But we're very focused on building out our ground game with everyday runners. And that means getting into the RSGs, back into the RSGs, and being present where runners are, whether it's not just at the marathons where the elite runners are, but the everyday races in the key cities around the world and the running communities. And you'll see us; we are steadily investing in that and building our presence there. And as we look forward, in terms of driving scale in everyday running, as I mentioned earlier, we're focused on Pegasus. That's our largest franchise, one of the largest franchises in running history, period.

Matt Friend
Matt Friend
CFO at Nike

We're very excited about Peg 41 and updates across the Peg family, which are coming in calendar 2024. A lot of focus. We'll report, you know, in road everyday running, it's gonna be quarter by quarter, steady progress, steady progress, steady progress toward our goal.

Matt Friend
Matt Friend
CFO at Nike

I'd just add, too, that we're excited about the product portfolio we have below $100. And that product offering that's coming to market in the coming quarters will also enable us to get back on our front foot at an important price point in both, across in multiple markets across the world.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Lorraine Hutchinson from Bank of America. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Lorraine Hutchinson
Lorraine Hutchinson
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst at Bank of America

Thank you. Good afternoon. I wanted to focus on the China margins for a minute. I was just curious, outside of the FX hit that you're facing, do you see an opportunity to drive margins in China back toward pre-COVID levels? Or has something changed that makes that market less profitable?

Matt Friend
Matt Friend
CFO at Nike

Well, Lorraine, let me let me first just step back and look at how we see China for a minute, and then we'll talk about margins 'cause if you don't have a great business, it's hard to have great margins. You know, the fact is, we feel very good about our position in China and our ability to compete. That has not changed from 90 days ago. China sport is back. The China consumer's back out on the street with a real focus on active and healthy lifestyles. You see the government encouraging sport and healthy lifestyles. Gen Z is the most active generation ever. So that's a tailwind for our industry. Even in the face of macro uncertainty, our brand is continuing to resonate.

Matt Friend
Matt Friend
CFO at Nike

We're doing what Nike does so well, which is taking global products, global innovations, global brand, global athletes, and powerfully combining them and connecting them to local culture and local sport and local consumer moments. A wonderful example last quarter is the Eliud Kipchoge, the world's best marathoner, did a tour through China right before the Shanghai Marathon. As you know, we sponsor the Shanghai Marathon. And, sure enough, we dominated shoe counts in the top 100. We swept the women's podium, and that's bringing energy and running and the lifestyle of running. And it's growing the market. I mean, I think we're, you know, 80%. We, yes, there's some macro headwinds, but we feel very good about our position and our ability to compete.

Matt Friend
Matt Friend
CFO at Nike

Yeah. And on the profitability side, what I'd say, Lorraine, is that this quarter, if we exclude the impact of FX, our EBIT grew faster than revenue in Greater China. And so I think it's a great proof point that we can start to expand margins and move back towards where we were, prior to the pandemic. I did mention that the marketplace is highly promotional, and we're seeing that especially on digital. And so in the near term, the promotional nature of the marketplace is holding us back. But what I would tell you is that our inventory units are down versus the prior year. Our full price realization is continuing to improve in our stores and our partner stores. And, you know, as we look at the environment that we're in right now, we're not gonna race to the bottom on digital.

Matt Friend
Matt Friend
CFO at Nike

We're gonna focus on prioritizing brand health and brand strength. Right now, the digital marketplace in particular is at the highest of promotional activity. So, an element of us revising our guidance for the balance of this year is an acknowledgment that we don't wanna chase that. That's not who Nike is. We're gonna focus on innovation and newness and building a strong business in the marketplace on things like the basketball products that John referenced. We're super excited about bringing Kobe to market in Greater China. The Jordan business continues to have tremendous resonance there. And that's how we're gonna grow and continue to compete in that market.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of John Kernan from TD Cowen. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

John Kernan
John Kernan
Managing Director of Equity Research at TD Cowen

Excellent. Happy holidays, and thanks for taking my question. Matt, how should we think about operating overhead and demand creation going forward as we think about the overall SG&A piece of the business? There's obviously, you know, some restructuring and some cost savings. But is this a time you need to reinvest given the changes in the competitive environment and the need to, reinvigorate the product cycle and the marketing? Curious how we should think about the SG&A algorithm going forward.

John Donahoe
John Donahoe
President and CEO at Nike

Yeah. I mean, John, when we think about the Save to Invest plan and the value it will create and the capacity it will create for us to be able to invest in the biggest growth opportunities we see, we don't envision that as being people. We envision that as being consumer-facing investment, bringing product innovation to market and having maximum impact with the consumer. And so, our goal here is to see a reallocation of resources through this program, so that more of our dollars are going towards consumer-facing activities that can have the kind of impact that you referenced.

John Donahoe
John Donahoe
President and CEO at Nike

We believe when we look at the size of the market and our position against some of the categories that John referenced and/or the way the consumer is continuing to encourage us to bring them new and interesting things from a Jordan perspective, we see opportunity to continue to grow our business. And that's where our focus is. So I think we're focused on driving more profitable growth. That should mean that there's some leverage in SG&A. But you should also expect to see us reinvesting some of the resources that we're taking out of the business back in things that are consumer-facing, that have an impact on sport and that continue and to enable us to maximize the impact of the stories that we wanna tell.

John Donahoe
John Donahoe
President and CEO at Nike

That's exactly why we're doing it 'cause we wanna double down on our investments to capitalize on growth.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Ike Boruchow from Wells Fargo. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Ike Boruchow
Ike Boruchow
Managing Director and Senior Equity Consumer Analyst at Wells Fargo

Hey, good afternoon. Thanks for taking the question. Matt, maybe for you, just on the North America market, could you just comment more broadly or specifically on the current state of the inventory situation, maybe both yours and just competitively on what you're seeing out there in holiday? And then just timeline on when you think that the inventory dynamics in at least North America might be more cleaned up or more healthy for the brand to start to, you know, see better price realization and growth. Thanks.

John Donahoe
John Donahoe
President and CEO at Nike

Sure. Well, so in the quarter, we did see growth in retail sales in North America versus the prior year. Remember, it wasn't a lot of growth because we were comping some very significant growth rates in the prior year. The actions that we've taken on inventory are significant. Our inventory units are down strong double digits in North America. That's the biggest market where we've seen the biggest movement in our inventory. When we look at the level of inventory in our partners relative to their current level of retail sales, we feel good about the weeks of supply that we have there. What I would tell you, in the large majority of our partners, we also are seeing the highest mix of current season inventory that we've seen in many, many seasons.

John Donahoe
John Donahoe
President and CEO at Nike

We feel great that our partners are positioned to put our newest and most relevant product in front of the consumer. We are watching the marketplace closely because my comments around the big consumer moments and the in-between periods apply to North America as well. We are watching cautious consumer behavior there. But at this point, we feel great about our inventory. That's why we're so focused on newness and innovation because that's what's gonna pull us through a promotional marketplace like we have. There's definitely a lot of inventory in the market across brands, but we feel great about where we are. Newness and innovation is what will enable us to earn open to buy in our partners and will enable us to reaccelerate the top line.

Operator

Our last question comes from the line of Paul Lejuez from Citi. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Paul Lejuez
Paul Lejuez
Managing Director and Head of Consumer Discretionary Research at Citi

Hey. Thanks, guys. I'm curious if you could talk about and quantify the cumulative freight drag that you've seen over the past two years and the timing of how you will recapture that freight drag in F24 versus F25 just based on your recent freight contracts. And what are the offsets as we think about potential puts and takes on the gross margin line 24/25? Thanks.

John Donahoe
John Donahoe
President and CEO at Nike

Well, sure. We've been talking about 200 basis points of impact from ocean freight, cumulatively over the past two years. And we started to see those transitory benefits begin to recapture here in the second quarter. Some of our upside in the quarter versus our guidance was it came a little bit earlier than we had anticipated. Our rates for this year locked. And so we expect to continue to see ups to see that the recovery of that in Q3 and Q4. One of the other transitory impacts that we're watching closely was markdowns. And right now, we're only planning for a very modest amount of markdown recovery, relative to the markdowns that we incurred in the prior year. And that's just given where the marketplace is.

John Donahoe
John Donahoe
President and CEO at Nike

We've decided to take a more prudent approach to our margin guidance for the balance of the year, given some of the uncertainties that are out there. So, you know, when we look to the balance of this year, we're encouraged by the second-half expansion, being higher than the first-half expansion. One of the other things that we're starting to get visibility into when we look at our margins in the fourth quarter is product costs product input costs are starting to flip to a tailwind. And so when we think about the long-term margin goals that we have, the teams are executing well. We continue to be encouraged with what we're seeing through this year.

Operator

Thank you, everyone. This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation, and you may now disconnect.

Analysts
    • Gabriella Carbone
      Equity Research Associate at Deutsche Bank
    • Ike Boruchow
      Managing Director and Senior Equity Consumer Analyst at Wells Fargo
    • John Donahoe
      President and CEO at Nike
    • John Kernan
      Managing Director of Equity Research at TD Cowen
    • Lorraine Hutchinson
      Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst at Bank of America
    • Matt Friend
      CFO at Nike
    • Matthew Boss
      Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst at J.P. Morgan
    • Michael Binetti
      Senior Managing Director and Fundamental Research Analyst at Evercore ISI
    • Paul Lejuez
      Managing Director and Head of Consumer Discretionary Research at Citi
    • Paul Trussell
      VP of Corporate Finance and Treasurer at Nike
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