Travelers Companies Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
January 19, 2024

There are 16 speakers on the call.

Operator

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to the 4th Quarter Results Teleconference for Travelers. We ask that you hold all questions until the completion of formal remarks, at which time you will be given instructions for the question and answer session. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded on January 19, 2024. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Ms.

Operator

Abby Goldstein, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations. Ms. Goldstein, you may begin.

Speaker 1

Thank you. Good morning and welcome to Travelers' discussion of our Q4 2023 results. We released our press release, financial supplement and webcast presentation earlier this morning. All of these materials can be found on our website at travelersdot com under the Investors section. Speaking today will be Alan Schnitzer, Chairman and CEO Dan Frey, Chief Financial Officer and our 3 segment Presidents, Greg Tejlowski of Business Insurance, Jeff Klenck of Bond and Specialty Insurance and Michael Klein of Personal Insurance.

Speaker 1

They will discuss the financial results of our business and the current market environment. They will refer to the webcast presentation as they go through prepared remarks and then we will take your questions. Before I turn the call over to Alan, I'd like to draw your attention to the explanatory note included at the end of the webcast presentation. Our presentation today includes forward looking statements. The company cautions investors that any forward looking statement involves risks and uncertainties and is not a guarantee of future performance.

Speaker 1

Actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied in the forward looking statements due to a variety of factors. These factors are described under forward looking statements in our earnings press release and in our most recent 10 Q and 10 ks filed with the SEC. We do not undertake any obligation to update forward looking statements. Also in our remarks or responses to questions, we may mention some non GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations are included in our recent earnings press release, financial supplement and other materials available in the Investors section on our website.

Speaker 1

And now I'd like to turn the call over to Alan Schnitzer.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Abby. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. We are very pleased to report exceptional top and bottom line results for the quarter. Core income, earnings per share and return on equity were all record highs, driven by both underwriting and investment results. Our underwriting gains were broad based.

Speaker 2

In each of our three segments, underlying underwriting income was higher and prior year development was favorable. Catastrophe losses were also light. Record underlying underwriting income resulted from net earned premiums of $10,000,000,000 up more than 13% over the prior year quarter and an underlying combined ratio which improved 5.5 points to a record 85.9 percent. Looking at our 2 commercial segments together, The aggregate BI BSI underlying combined ratio was an excellent 85.9 percent for the quarter. The underlying combined ratio in personal insurance was also 85.9%, an improvement of more than 10 points year over year.

Speaker 2

In addition, we are pleased to have delivered full year core income of 3 $1,000,000,000 generating core return on equity of 11.5%, notwithstanding elevated industry wide catastrophe losses earlier in the year and a personal lines operating environment that while improving was difficult during the year. Turning to investments. Our high quality investment portfolio continued to perform well, generating after tax net investment income of $645,000,000 for the quarter and $2,400,000,000 for the year, driven by strong and reliable returns from our growing fixed income portfolio. Our operating results, together with our strong balance sheet, enabled us to grow adjusted book value per share by 8% during the year. After making important investments in our business and returning nearly $2,000,000,000 of excess capital to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases.

Speaker 2

Turning to the top line. We grew net written premiums by 13% to $10,000,000,000 in the quarter. For the year, we grew net written premiums by 14% to more than $40,000,000,000 All three segments contributed to our top line success. In Business Insurance, we grew net written premiums in the quarter by 14% to more than $5,000,000,000 Renewal premium change remained high at 11.8%, while retention also remained high at 87%. The combination of strong pricing and retention reflects deliberate execution on our part and a disciplined marketplace.

Speaker 2

The segment generated $672,000,000 of new business in the quarter, which was $118,000,000 or about 20% higher than in the prior year quarter. In Bond and Specialty Insurance, net written premiums increased by 7% to $989,000,000 driven by excellent production in our surety business, where net written premiums were up 9%. Production was also strong in our management liability business. Given the attractive returns, we are very pleased with the strong production results in both of our commercial business segments. In Personal Insurance, top line growth of 13% was driven by higher pricing.

Speaker 2

Renewal premium change was 21.2% in Home and 16.7% in our auto business. Real premium change alone contributed more than $2,000,000,000 of written premium in this segment over the past year. With another strong production with another year of strong production in each of our segments, we feel very well positioned for the new year. You'll hear more shortly from Greg, Jeff and Michael about our segment results. Before I turn the call over to Dan, I'd like to take a minute and our 2023 results into an overtime context with an update to some data we've shared previously.

Speaker 2

A half dozen or so years ago, we laid out a focused innovation strategy and shared that if we were successful in its execution, We would expect to grow our business at attractive returns, a reflection of our belief that any strategy to achieve industry leading returns over time requires a strategy to grow over time. The data on Slide 19 of the webcast presentation show the success we've achieved. Starting at the top left corner, in terms of the top line, we've grown net written premiums at a compound annual rate of 7% over the past 7 years. That's 2.5 times our rate of growth from 2012 to 2016. The growth rate in each of the past 2 years was double digits, the result of a deliberate and tailored strategy, stronger pricing where we need it and a combination of pricing and unit growth where we like the opportunity.

Speaker 2

In Business Insurance, we've added more than $4,000,000,000 to our top line over the past 2 years. The investments we've made capabilities to enhance the franchise value that we offer to our customers and distribution partners have contributed to strong retentions and growth in new business. In Bond and Specialty, we've increased net written premiums over that period by about $500,000,000 or 14%. More than half of that growth has come from our very profitable surety business, where our market leading position has enabled us to benefit from increased demand for bonds with higher contract values and projects resulting from the Federal Infrastructure and Jobs Act and other federal programs. Across both of our commercial segments, since 2021, we have about doubled our E and S writings to around $2,500,000,000 That includes organic growth from the E and S business we write in National Property, our Northfield business and our Lloyd's business, As well as the impact of more recent strategic efforts, which include our relationships with Fidelis and Corbus, The margins in our E and S business are quite attractive.

Speaker 2

In Personal Insurance, where margins have not been at target levels in recent periods, Net written premium growth of $3,400,000,000 over the past 2 years has been almost entirely a result of price increases. The PI team has done an excellent job of threading the needle, maintaining a strong customer base while achieving meaningful pricing gains. They've also done a great job with product management. Our advanced peril by peril Quantum Auto 2.0 offering now represents more than 60% of the domestic property portfolio, and adoption of our telematics product and teledrive among new customers has been strong. With pricing gains and enhanced product sophistication, the book should contribute to our earnings power going forward as we move to our target returns.

Speaker 2

Also important is that across all three segments, we've grown mostly in products, classes of business and geographies and through distribution partners that we know well. That gives us a lot of confidence in the business we're adding to the books. Moving to the right, you can see that while we've meaningfully increased our rate of growth, we've maintained very strong and consistent underlying profitability. That demonstrates that we're not growing by underpricing the business or compromising our underwriting discipline. We've grown by investing in the products, services and experiences that our customers want to buy and our distribution partners want to sell.

Speaker 2

We've also grown through a lot of great hustle and hard work on the part of our standing field organization. One of the clear strategic objectives of our innovation strategy has been to optimize productivity and efficiency. Moving to the top right of the slide, you can see that over the last 7 years, we've reduced our expense ratio by 3.6 points to just over 28% for 2023, which is more than a 10% reduction relative to our 2012 to 2016 expense ratio of around 32%. Enhanced operating leverage gives us the flexibility to let the benefit fall to the bottom line and or invest further in our strategic priorities. Case in point, as you can see on Slide 21, Since 2017, we have doubled our investments in strategic technology initiatives.

Speaker 2

Over that same period, we've carefully managed growth in routine but necessary technology expenditures. In other words, over a 7 year period, we simultaneously and meaningfully increased our technology spend, improved the strategic mix of that spend and lowered our expense ratio. The upshot of what we've accomplished on the top half of Slide 19 is what you see on the bottom half. On the bottom left, you can see that we've increased underlying underwriting income significantly. From 2012 to 2019, underlying underwriting income averaged $1,300,000,000 In 2020, we crossed the $2,000,000,000 mark.

Speaker 2

In 2023 marks the first time that we've exceeded $3,000,000,000 We've taken our underlying underwriting income to a meaningfully higher level. We've also significantly increased our cash flow from operations more than $7,500,000,000 in 2023. The 4th consecutive year, it's been more than $6,000,000,000 and more than double our average cash flow from operations in the earlier part of the last decade. Cash flow isn't a metric that we or our industry talk a lot about, but it's important. It's what gives us the ability to make important investments in our business, return excess capital to shareholders and grow the investment portfolio.

Speaker 2

We've grown our investment portfolio significantly, nearly $93,000,000,000 As we continue to reinvest our fixed income portfolio at higher rates, This is a highly reliable lever of earnings and value creation. To sum it up, through a well executed strategy, we've more than doubled our rate of growth, sustained strong underlying underwriting margins and meaningfully lowered our expense ratio. That has resulted in record levels of underlying underwriting income, cash flow and invested assets. Ultimately, of course, one number that brings everything together is adjusted book value per share. On Slide 20, you can see that we have steadily increased adjusted book value per share each year since 2,006 at a compound annual rate of 7.5%.

Speaker 2

The effective management of our capital complements that result. We've increased our capital base to support the profitable growth of our business. At the same time, we've been disciplined about returning excess capital to shareholders. Over this period, we've increased our dividend at a compound annual rate of more than 8% and returned more than $40,000,000,000 to our shareholders through share repurchases at an average price of about $74 per share. These results, together with our track record of strong returns and low volatility demonstrate the strength of our business and the success of our overtime strategy.

Speaker 2

Looking ahead, we're very confident about how we're positioned for 2024 and beyond. The fundamentals across our business are in excellent shape. We're confident that we're focused on the right strategic priorities and that with demonstrated success and execution, there's plenty more opportunity ahead of us. And with that, I'm pleased to turn the call over to Dan.

Speaker 3

Thank you, Alan. Core income for the Q4 was $1,600,000,000 And core return on equity was 24%, both all time record quarterly results. We're pleased have once again generated record levels of earned premium this quarter and an excellent underlying combined ratio of 85.9%, a 5.5 point improvement from last year's quarter. The combination of premium growth and underlying margin improvement led to underlying underwriting income of $1,100,000,000 after tax, up $511,000,000 or 89% from the prior year quarter. The underlying combined ratio improved from the prior year in all three segments.

Speaker 3

The expense ratio for the 4th quarter improved by 0.5 point from last year's quarter to 27.4%, once again reflecting the benefits of our focus on productivity and efficiency coupled with strong top line growth. The full year expense ratio of 28.1% was our best ever. As Alan mentioned, our focus is on operating leverage. And looking ahead to 2024, we're comfortable with the annual expense ratio in the range of 28% to 28.5% for now. Our 4th quarter results include a modest $125,000,000 of pretax catastrophe losses with no individually significant events impacting our book of business.

Speaker 3

Turning to prior year reserve development. We had total net favorable development of $132,000,000 pretax with all three segments contributing. In Business Insurance, net favorable PYD of $56,000,000 was driven by favorability in workers' comp It was partially offset by adverse development in Umbrella and general liability. Even after the reserve charge, Returns in both Umbrella and GL remain very attractive. In Bond and Specialty, net favorable PYD of $36,000,000 was driven by better than expected results in both surety and management liability.

Speaker 3

Personal Insurance had $40,000,000 of net favorable PYD, driven by homeowners and other. After tax net investment income of $645,000,000 was up 21% from the prior year quarter. Fixed maturity NII was again higher than the prior year quarter, reflecting both the benefit of higher average yields and the significant growth in our portfolio of invested assets. Returns in the non fixed income portfolio were also higher than in the prior year quarter. In terms of our outlook for fixed income NII for 2024, including earnings from short term securities, We expect approximately $2,600,000,000 after tax, beginning with approximately $630,000,000 in the first quarter and growing to approximately $675,000,000 in the 4th quarter.

Speaker 3

Page 22 of the presentation provides information about our January 1 catastrophe reinsurance renewal. Our long standing cat XOL treaty continues to provide coverage for both single cat events and the aggregation of losses from multiple cat events, and we've increased the amount of total coverage 2024. Despite the growth in our property book, our attachment point remains steady and the per occurrence loss deductible is unchanged $100,000,000 For 2024, we have placed coverage for $3,500,000,000 of the $4,500,000,000 layer above the $3,500,000,000 attachment point. We're pleased to have obtained the extra protection in light of the recent inflationary impact on insured values. With context, we've never hit this treaty.

Speaker 3

Nonetheless, This is prudent, affordable balance sheet protection for tail events. The cost of the additional reinsurance will be largely offset by the strong renewal pricing we to achieve on our direct written property premiums, resulting in only a de minimis impact on the underlying combined ratio. On a financial modeling note, let me turn your attention to Slide 23 of the webcast presentation. As we enter 2024, We thought it would be helpful to once again highlight the seasonality of our cat losses over the prior decade. As shown in the data, The second quarter has regularly and noticeably been our largest cat quarter.

Speaker 3

Cat losses in the second quarter have been on average more than 3 combined ratio points higher than in any other quarter, and the 2nd quarter has been our largest cat quarter in 7 of the past 10 years. Also of interest for 2024, in light of continued strong pricing and terms in the E and S and reinsurance markets, We are pleased to share that we have renewed the 20% quota share with Fidelis. The renewal includes the same loss ratio cap we had for 2023. The written premium volume, which will again be included as part of international within the Business Insurance segment, is not expected to be material to this segment, It should have a modestly favorable impact on the underlying combined ratio for 2024 as it earns in. Turning to capital management.

Speaker 3

Operating cash flows for the quarter of $2,100,000,000 were again very strong And we ended the quarter with holding company liquidity of approximately $1,500,000,000 As you may have seen, S and P issued their updated capital model, and we now expect that the result of the new model will be a modest improvement in their assessment of our capital metrics. Interest rates decreased and spreads narrowed during the quarter and as a result, our net unrealized investment loss decreased from $6,500,000,000 after tax at September 30 to $3,100,000,000 after tax at year end. As we've discussed previously, Changes in unrealized investment gains and losses generally do not impact how we manage our investment portfolio. We generally hold fixed income investments to maturity, The quality of our fixed income portfolio remains very high, and changes in unrealized gains and losses have little impact on our cash flows, statutory surplus or regulatory capital requirements. Adjusted book value per share, which excludes net unrealized investment gains and losses, was $122.90 at year end, up 8% from a year ago.

Speaker 3

We returned $298,000,000 of capital to our shareholders quarter, comprising share repurchases of $66,000,000 and dividends of $232,000,000 We have approximately $6,000,000,000 of capacity remaining under the share repurchase authorization from our Board of Directors. Thinking about share repurchases in 2024, while there is no change in our capital management philosophy, We will factor in the need for increased capital in light of our top line growth as well as the $435,000,000 we just deployed to complete the Corbus acquisition. Currently, we expect repurchases in the Q1 of somewhere around $250,000,000 Recapping our results for 2023. Core income was $3,100,000,000 and core ROE was 11.5%. We delivered our highest ever levels of written premium, earned premium, underlying underwriting income and cash flow from operations.

Speaker 3

In addition, we ended the year with our all time high in adjusted book value per share and with our largest investment portfolio ever. We've never been better positioned for the year ahead. And with that, I'll turn the call over to Greg for a discussion of Business Insurance.

Speaker 4

Thanks, Dan. Business Insurance had another strong quarter, rounding on a terrific year in terms of financial results, execution in the marketplace and progress in our strategic initiatives. Last year at this time, I indicated that we were firing on all cylinders and that certainly remains the case today. Segment income for the quarter was $957,000,000 our highest quarter ever and up well over $200,000,000 from the prior year quarter driven by higher underlying underwriting income and net investment income as well as lower catastrophes. The all in combined ratio of 86.5% was a great result We're once again particularly pleased with our exceptional underlying combined ratio of 86.8%, an all time best result.

Speaker 4

The underlying loss ratio improved by almost 2.5 points from the prior year quarter with the drivers of the improvement including the benefit of earned pricing, a mix shift to the property line and an impact from non cat weather that was modestly favorable to both the prior year and our expectations. The expense ratio remained excellent at 28.8%. Net written premiums for the quarter were up 14% from the prior year to a 4th quarter record of $5,000,000,000 benefiting from high retention, strong renewal premium change and an increase in new business levels. As Alan mentioned, given the attractive margins in the segment, we're very pleased with this growth. Turning to domestic production for the quarter.

Speaker 4

Renewal premium change was once again historically high at 11.8% with renewal rate change of 7.4% and continued strong growth in exposure. Renewal rate change increased from the 3rd quarter in select and middle market, However, ticked down at the segment level driven almost entirely by a lower mix of National Property written premium in the 4th quarter as compared

Speaker 2

to the 3rd

Speaker 4

quarter. Retention remained excellent at 87% and new business of $672,000,000 was the strongest 4th quarter we've ever produced. We're thrilled with these production results and our field's superior execution in the marketplace. In terms of pricing, we're pleased to be able to sustain strong levels of renewal premium change to address the persistent environmental headwinds. As for renewal rate change, during the quarter, we achieved meaningful renewal rate increases on all lines other than workers' comp.

Speaker 4

The property, umbrella and auto lines led the way. Renewal rate change in each of the casualty lines was comparable or better than the 3rd quarter. And given our high quality book as well as several years of meaningful price increases and improvements in terms and conditions, We're very pleased to continue to produce historically strong retention levels. As for the individual businesses, In Select, renewal premium change remains strong at 11.9%, up more than 1.5% from the 3rd quarter, driven by renewal rate change, which increased to 4.1% for the quarter. Even with strong pricing, retention remained very strong at 85%.

Speaker 4

New business was up $49,000,000 from the prior year quarter, driven in large part by the continued success of our BOP 2.0 product. In middle market, renewal premium change of 10.4% and retention of 90% remained historically strong. New business of $348,000,000 was an all time best 4th quarter result. As we close out 2023, let me provide a little color on full year results before turning the call over to Jeff. Segment income was nearly $2,600,000,000 an exceptional result.

Speaker 4

The underlying combined ratio of 88.9%, Top line of $20,400,000,000 renewal premium change, retention and new business premiums were all record results. These results are a direct reflection of our successful execution of our thoughtful and deliberate strategies. And while delivering these financial and production results, we've also continued to invest in strategic capabilities that will enhance our many competitive advantages. For example, during the year, we continued to advance our data and analytics capabilities by leveraging evolving technologies, including AI and new data sources to help us manage the portfolio and equip our frontline underwriters with data and insights to better enable our risk selection, underwriting and pricing. In addition, we continued to advance our already state of the art product and service capabilities by continuing to roll out our BOP 2.0 product, which is now live in all but a couple of states, as well as our new commercial auto product, which is now live in 14 states.

Speaker 4

Both products deliver industry leading segmentation and user experiences. In addition, we continued to make progress on developing other industry leading user experience capabilities to make it easier and more efficient for our distribution partners and customers to do business with us. In particular, in our middle market business, We advanced our capabilities around digitizing the underwriting transaction for our agents and brokers. In our small commercial business, We continue to roll out our new front end rate quote and issue interface platform to make it faster and easier for our agents to write business with us, while maintaining all the underwriting discipline and specialization behind the scenes. And finally, we continue to improve our operating leverage through our relentless focus on productivity and efficiency.

Speaker 4

We're proud of these extraordinary results and the best in class team that produced With that, I'll turn the call over to Jeff.

Speaker 5

Thanks, Greg. Bond and Specialty ended a strong 2023 with a terrific quarter on both the top and bottom lines. Segment income was $240,000,000 up 9% from the prior year quarter. We delivered very strong underlying underwriting income and an standing underlying combined ratio of 80.6%. Turning to the top line, we grew net written premiums by 7% in the quarter.

Speaker 5

In our high quality domestic management liability business, we again delivered excellent retention of 90% in line with the prior year quarter, while continuing to achieve positive renewal premium change. New business was up, driven by a new domestic cyber capacity agreement with Corbus. Surety net written premiums increased 9%, reflecting continued strong demand for surety bonds. So we're pleased to have once again delivered terrific top and bottom line results this quarter, capping off a year during which we generated record segment income and net written premium. Finally, We're pleased that earlier this month, we closed our previously announced acquisition of Corvus Insurance.

Speaker 5

Corvus is an industry leading Cyber Insurance Managing General Underwriter powered by proprietary technology. Corvus has developed Cutting edge capabilities, including digitally integrated cyber sales, underwriting, service and support, sophisticated underwriting algorithms and advanced vulnerability scanning. Orbus also brings deep cyber underwriting and risk management expertise and we're pleased to welcome them to the Travelers family. This acquisition affords us the opportunity to write Corvus' profitable book of business, which will be reflected as new business in our production results over the course of 2024. And now I'll turn the call over to Michael.

Speaker 6

Thanks, Jeff, and good morning, everyone. I'm pleased to share that Insurance generated $520,000,000 of 4th quarter segment income, strong result in a significant improvement compared to the prior year quarter due to higher underlying underwriting income and lower catastrophe losses. The underlying combined ratio of 85.9% improved over 10 points compared to the prior year quarter, reflecting improvements in both automobile and homeowners and other. Net written premiums grew 13% driven by continued elevated levels of renewal premium change in both auto and home, bringing full year net written premiums to a record of nearly $16,000,000,000 In automobile, the 4th quarter combined ratio was 103.6%. The underlying combined ratio of 102.7% improved nearly 8 points compared to the prior year quarter.

Speaker 6

This improvement was driven by the benefit of higher earned pricing. To a lesser extent, it also benefited from the year over year impact of a modest favorable re estimation of prior quarters in the current year compared to a modest unfavorable re estimation in the prior year quarter. In Homeowners and Other, the 4th quarter combined ratio of 70.8% improved by over 28 points, reflecting catastrophe losses that were favorable to both the prior year quarter and our expectations and an improved underlying combined ratio. The underlying combined ratio improved 12.5 points primarily due to non catastrophe weather related losses that were favorable to both the prior year and our expectations and the impact of earned pricing. Turning to production, our results demonstrate our continued disciplined execution of rate and non rate actions to improve profitability and manage growth.

Speaker 6

In domestic automobile, retention remained consistent. Renewal premium change of 16.7% remained strong And as expected, moderated from the Q3 of 2023 as the majority of our book reached rate adequacy on a written basis. We expect renewal premium change to remain in the mid teens through the first half of twenty twenty four as we continue to assess the environment and seek rate on a state by state basis as appropriate. We're pleased to note that auto new business increased relative to the prior year quarter As we tempered our non rate actions in states where we've achieved written rate adequacy, we will continue to evaluate our non rate measures as more states reach adequacy throughout 2024. In homeowners and other, retention remained consistent Even as renewal premium change reached a record level at 21.2%, primarily driven by higher renewal rate change.

Speaker 6

As we noted last quarter, we expect homeowners renewal premium change to moderate to low double digits in 2024. We will continue to seek rate increases in response to elevated loss levels. But at the same time, our automatic increase in limit factors will return to more normal levels, reflecting the progress we've made on aligning insured values with replacement costs. Our continued efforts to manage new business flow and thoughtfully deploy in the face of market dislocation drove the year over year decline in homeowners new business and policies in force during the quarter. We anticipate this trend will continue as we take further actions

Speaker 3

to

Speaker 6

improve profitability and manage growth in property. In 2023, we made notable progress on improving the underlying fundamentals of our business and are moving towards our goal of delivering target returns. While the environment remains dynamic, we're confident we're on a path to generating leading returns in personal insurance and growing profitably over time. Now, I'll turn the call back over to Abby.

Speaker 1

Thanks very much. We're happy to open up for your questions.

Operator

Your first question comes from the line of David Motomaytum from Evercore ISI. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Speaker 7

Hi, thanks. Good morning. I just had a question on the Business Insurance underlying loss ratio and if you could size the components of the improvement between earned pricing above trend, the light non cat weather as well as the property mix shift?

Speaker 3

David, it's Dan. So we're not going to put numbers on them, but price versus trend has been a favorable throughout the last couple of years and was favorable again this quarter. A little bit of a mix shift towards property, as Greg said, and modestly favorable non cat weather impact, not huge, but worth a mention.

Speaker 2

But We're not going

Speaker 3

to put numbers on each of those.

Speaker 7

Got it. Thanks. And then, I think it's been 5 of the last 7 quarters or something like that where you guys called out the general liability and umbrella as areas of reserve increases in business insurance. I'm wondering if we could get a little bit more detail about exactly what you guys are seeing and reacting 2. And if you think we're closer to the end of some of these true ups?

Speaker 3

Sure, David. It's Dan again. So not big, big movements this quarter, more of the same, more of what we've sort of been talking about the last couple of quarters, which is No surprises in terms of the themes of the things that we're seeing come through those numbers, but the magnitude has been a little greater than we had allowed for previously. And we're just looking at the data that comes in every quarter and trying to make sure we stay as current with it as we can and so a modest reaction to keep up with that, but nothing really new.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Craig Peters from Raymond James. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Speaker 8

Well, good morning, everyone. Well, first of all, you had a great Q4, so congratulations. But I wanted to focus on Slide 7, the return on equity slide. And you guys have all mapped out Really a pretty strong outlook. And I guess I'm trying to reconcile what is looks to be a very pretty good outlook With the fact that your ROE is running below where I think it should be, I feel like the ROE should be running higher.

Speaker 8

So Maybe Alan, you can provide some perspectives because I know the ROE is an important factor that you guys look at.

Speaker 3

Greg, it's Dan. I'll start. So look, 11.5% for ROE for a full year, pretty good number, another year double digits, well above our cost of capital And the risk free rate, not quite where we'd like it to be. And I think the biggest contributor, and you called out Slide 7 is that yellow bar from the contribution from underwriting really impacted as we talked about in the Q2 and Q3 by a very elevated level of catastrophe losses for the year. That's not what we expect to be the new normal run rate.

Speaker 3

We're certainly factoring more recent cat experience into our view of cat expectations going forward, but we wouldn't expect it to be elevated at that level.

Speaker 2

Craig, it's Alan. The other thing I would add to that is, I won't tell you what to do, but one of the things I do every quarter is trying to take a stab at normalizing these things. And so eliminate prior year development and put in for cats whatever you think is a normalized cat number, and then you get a different perspective.

Speaker 8

Right. Okay. And then, Dan, I just wanted to Go back to your comments and about share repurchase and uses of capital. I know you talked about the expectation for what's going to happen in the Q1 and you talked about capital. Are there any other Things you'd like to call out in terms of capital allocation outside of dividends and share repurchase?

Speaker 2

Let me start with that, then I'll see what observations Dan has on that. So I think we've said for a very long time, Our first objective for every dollar of capital we generate is to invest it back in the business when we think we can do that and achieve our objectives and contribute to shareholder value. But we think we've got a long track record that demonstrates our discipline with shareholders' capital. And so we're going to invest the money back in the business when we can and that could be keeping capital on the balance sheet to support profitable growth. It could be Buying things like Corbus, it could be investing in technology or people doing the things that we think we can do that are accretive to our objectives.

Speaker 2

And when we can't do that, we're going to give the dollars back. So it's a long winded way of saying no change at all in our capital management Dan, you bet.

Speaker 3

I agree entirely. There's no hidden message in there, Greg. It's business as usual.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Elyse Greenspan from Wells Fargo. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Speaker 9

Hi, thanks. Good morning. My first question is on the Fidelis relationship. Dan, I think you called out and said you expect a modest favorable impact in 2024. Can you just give us a sense of how favorable that deal was to 23 margins within BI and how we should think about the year over year improvement you guys are expecting in 2024 versus 2023?

Speaker 3

Sure, Elyse, it's Dan. So really not going to put a very fine number on it. Keep in mind now that Fidelis is now a standalone public company. They haven't reported results yet. I don't think it would be appropriate for us to give an outlook of what we felt about their profitability.

Speaker 3

But it was a modest help in 2023. It will be a modest help again in 2024. There'll be a little bigger base of earned premium as we'll have 2 years' worth of written impacting 2024. So worth calling out as a modest benefit, but not a big number. And I really don't think it would be appropriate for us to try to put a finer number on

Speaker 9

Okay. Thank you. Then within personal auto, what percent of your states or premium, still have non rate restrictions in place?

Speaker 6

Elyse, I don't think we'll get more specific than the majority, but you can think of the non rate restrictions as tracking very closely with where we see state by state. So the majority of the premium is in states where we have Relax some of those or temperate some of those non rate actions because the majority of premium is in states where we've got target returns on a written basis. And again, as I indicated in my prepared remarks, we'll continue to follow that path as more states get adequate, we'll temper actions in those states as they reach adequacy.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Ryan Tunis from Autonomous Research. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Speaker 10

Hey, thanks. Good morning. I guess my question is just looking at the rate slides, we saw an acceleration of Pricing in middle market in select, obviously, a decelerated headline. So I'm guessing that means there's deceleration in national property. Could you just, I guess, talk a little bit about the relative pricing dynamics in those three markets?

Speaker 4

Good morning, Ryan. It's Greg. Yes, you can see if you look at underneath the price and you can see rate is up in both the middle market and select business. So the residual that makes up the total BI, you're correct, the preponderance of that is National Property. And so a couple of dynamics this quarter in National Property.

Speaker 4

1 is when that plays out to the total book, we did have less weight on a net written premium national property this quarter, quarter 4 versus quarter 3 quarter 2. And we did have a tick down overall in rates in National Property also given where the returns are in that business and the business is performing extremely well.

Speaker 2

But make no mistake, Ryan, The overall rate change and renewal price change in the property line continues to be very strong.

Speaker 10

Got it. Thanks. And then just a follow-up, we're not used to seeing this type of margin expansion in Business Insurance. I would think that would mean that it's largely attributable to short tail lines, but I guess I was also curious, Obviously, rates have been running in excessive loss trend in casualty as well for a while. We haven't really talked about changing loss picks or anything like But was there a change on the casualty side to, I guess, loss picks in the Q4 or any true up to the current year or something like we should be aware of?

Speaker 3

Ryan, it's Dan. Like if we have an unusual item in the quarter that's sort of non run rate, we'll usually try and call it out for you including some kind of year to date catch up. Michael referred to it in PI Auto, but you didn't hear Greg talk about anything significant in BI because there wasn't really anything significant in BI. So we did what we always do, right, go through all the lines. There's puts and takes across every line,

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Mike Zaremski from BMO. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Speaker 11

Hey, thanks. Good morning and happy Friday. First question is Maybe looking for a little bit more color on some of the pleasantly surprising commentary About the general liability and umbrella returns still being very good despite But someone else had pointed out was 5 of the last 7 quarters adding to reserves. So just curious, is there Any more can you elaborate on that? Is it maybe you're taking into account the you don't typically hear that, maybe it's the Investment income that's helping or it's sold as part of a package and so the rest of the products are running at better returns or anything you could add to that?

Speaker 11

Thanks.

Speaker 3

Mike, it's Dan. So we're thinking about the returns and that is our all in view of return, but we are specifically looking at Those lines when we make that comment, although we do, to your point, also pay a lot of attention to returns on an account basis, But those comments were specific to the liability and umbrella lines. And this really goes back to the comment that Alan made a couple of quarters ago, which is the amounts that we're, I'll say, tweaking prior year reserve development by is really pretty modest in the scope and the scheme of those reserves. And when we look at the total volume of business that we're writing and the returns on an overtime basis, we still both like both of those lines very much. Another way to

Speaker 2

think about it might be that you think about it in terms of rate adequacy and you might have an attractive rate adequacy. You might make an adjustment to it. It might be, to one degree or another, slightly less rate adequate. Nonetheless, You like the rate adequacy. So that's it's in that context we say we continue to like the returns in those lines.

Speaker 11

Okay, that's helpful. And my follow-up, Alan, you continue to mention and show gauges of free cash flow. You also mentioned that it's I still don't think it's appreciated. At least I don't appreciate it, why it's important. So maybe you can try to further elaborate on, is it is the increase in Cash flows, which I assume is correlated with your increased growth, is that actually aiding your ROE?

Speaker 11

Or what are we Why should we be focusing more on free cash flow, which has a lot of moving parts in it?

Speaker 2

Yes. I wouldn't say it's just growth. It's a combination of Plus profitable growth is what I would say about that. And as I've said, that's what gives us the flexibility to invest in all the important things we invest in, return capital to shareholders and grow the investment portfolio. So without strong free cash flow, we couldn't do those three things and those are key to our operating model.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Brian Meredith from UBS. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Speaker 12

Yes, thanks. Alan, first question, if I look at the underlying combined ratio on your business insurance, it's I believe the best it's ever been since the St. Paul merger and probably prior to that just on the numbers. I guess, can you kind of talk a little bit about is that a sustainable Kind of underlying combined ratio, underlying margin, is there more improvement potentially can go there? At what point do you kind of say, okay, The margins we're seeing on the business are about as good as we should have and maybe more focused on growth and more expenses and other things.

Speaker 12

How do you balance that?

Speaker 2

It's a really good question. And as you can imagine, I'm going to resist the temptation to try to share too much on an outlook of that number or what we might want to do Everything you mentioned is something we can think about. And I really would like to get away from Talking about the future of margins, but we've answered that question before with loss trend where it is and pricing where it is. You can conclude that answer hasn't really changed. So I think I'm just going to leave it with we really like these margins.

Speaker 2

We really like business we're putting on the books, at the margin we're putting it on the books, and we really like the opportunity ahead of us. Brian, this

Speaker 4

is Greg. Just one follow-up I would note. You said You could grow the business. We are growing the business 16% on a full year basis and have strong New business, so there's a number of items that we watch and we compete in the marketplace, but growth is one of them, but through the lens of adequacy of our products.

Speaker 2

Yes. And on that note, as I've shared before, we it's a fool's errand in this industry to try to grow and compete on price. That's a losing proposition. We try to grow by making sure we've got the product services and experiences that our customers want to buy and our distribution partners want to sell.

Speaker 12

Makes sense. Thanks. And then Michael, I'm just curious, back on Personal Auto, when you look at your business Majority right now being, call it, rate adequate on a written basis. What are you kind of thinking from a loss cost inflation perspective? And is that maybe why you're Not stepping on growth maybe a little bit quicker right now because of uncertainty as far as the claim severity?

Speaker 6

Sure, Brian. It's a great question. I would say that we continue to see loss trends moderate optimistic and I would just say we're staying very disciplined as I described earlier with state by state execution, making sure we have our arms around written rate adequacy and then adjusting our marketplace actions in auto accordingly. And as I said, we're very pleased with the increase in new business production that we saw this quarter, and policies in force stabilizing. And our plan is to continue down that path, achieve rate adequacy in additional states, temper those non rate actions as we go and see what that does to the top line as we move forward.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Meyer Shields From KBW, please go ahead. Your line is open.

Speaker 2

Great. Thank you. Good morning.

Speaker 4

I was hoping for an update on you're seeing in workers' compensation, medical inflation, we've heard some comments about it moving back towards normalized levels and I'm wondering what travelers experience is?

Speaker 3

Hey, Meyer, it's Dan. So sure, a couple of comments on that. We do see some paid medical severity that's now higher than what we saw in the very benign pandemic levels. On the flip side of that, frequency has been pretty favorable. And as we've shared A number of times previously, our view in reserving and in pricing still assumes that there's going to be a return to that higher longer term trend.

Speaker 3

But when we factor all that in, in the most recent data that we're looking at, loss costs still coming in better than we expected and that's why you get another quarter of favorable PYD.

Speaker 4

Okay, fantastic. And then switching gears, when we look at the, I guess, the premium data In Business Insurance, it looks like exposure and other components that are not rate accelerated in But decelerated in middle market and property and

Speaker 2

I was hoping you could talk us through that.

Speaker 4

Hey, Meyer, this is Greg. You have a couple of dynamics going on between those 2 businesses. In Select, we have higher exposure in workers' comp and CMP. And for workers' comp relative to middle market, I think it's just a different cohort of customers. So in a wage increase environment on a Smaller customer base, you get bigger deltas.

Speaker 4

And so that's what's driving the difference in workers' comp. CMP, similar to what Michael said, that's Our business owner product with a heavy property coverage that comes with it. And so we do have think of it as an automatic inflationary level underneath the CMP products, so you get a little more exposure growth there also. So those are the drivers underneath the difference between select and middle.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Alex Scott from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Speaker 13

Hi, good morning. First one I had is on business insurance. And I was just interested Hearing a little bit about the competitive dynamic in the market, I mean, I look at the returns, how good the underlying loss ratios are and so forth ROEs that suggests, and yet price accelerating and in some areas your business retention is We're hitting pretty darn high levels. So it all suggests a lot of discipline in the marketplace. And just wanted to get your perspective on What is it in the environment that's causing everyone to remain so disciplined despite good underwriting and the additional contribution from net investment income?

Speaker 2

Alex, good morning. It's Alan. Let me start and then I'll turn it over to Greg to add anything I missed. But I would say overall, you're correct. The pricing environment remains very strong and broad based by

Speaker 3

highs.

Speaker 2

And I would say in broad strokes and there's really no change here from recent quarters. In broad strokes, I think there are Two trends impacting pricing. On the one hand, there's just a lot of uncertainty out there in the world and there's some headwinds. The reinsurance market continues to be strong. You've got inflation of various varieties.

Speaker 2

You've got a tight labor market. I think weather is probably on everybody's minds. Think about geopolitics these days. The world has never been more active than it is now and on and on. And so I can't speak for anybody else, but we're reacting to those things in our pricing.

Speaker 2

At the same time, we've had returns are in a much better place than they were a few years ago because we've done a pretty good job with pricing terms, conditions and all the rest. And so the pricing you see from us and you referred to it as a competitive marketplace, I would say It is a marketplace that is pretty disciplined, I suspect, reacting to many of the things that we're reacting to. Greg, anything down?

Speaker 4

Yes, I think that's spot on.

Speaker 13

Got it. Thanks. The second one I have for you is on personal auto. Could you just give us maybe a high level idea of what's going on with severity in the claims? And We can look a lot at used cars and that kind of thing, but some of the more nuanced elements are on car repair and that kind of thing.

Speaker 13

Any color you can provide on some of those trends?

Speaker 6

Yes, sure Alex, it's Michael. I'd maybe just give a couple more comments relative to the comment I made earlier about moderating trends. You're right to point to sort of vehicle severity and used car prices, And we certainly see moderation there in the level of increase year on year. And in fact, when you look at the dynamics underneath the prior period adjustments that I described in the script, those really are driven by the physical damage coverages. Late last year, we were adding to our estimates for vehicle losses because physical damage coverages were rising more than we thought they were going to.

Speaker 6

And this year, we actually took down some of our estimates for vehicle severity on prior periods because they've been a bit more favorable than we anticipated. Broadly speaking, severity in auto is running mid to high single digits, think We don't have a dramatic improvement in those trends sort of factored into Our comments about when we're going to get to written adequacy state by state or those types of things, but that's a little bit more detail on sort of where things are running today. The other thing that we've mentioned a couple of quarters throughout The year is we are also monitoring the mix of losses between vehicle losses and losses that have third party property damage and bodily injury. We've seen a bit of a mixed shift towards more bodily injury claims, which is one of the things that has us keeping our severity trend estimates at that sort of elevated level.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Paul Newsome from Piper Sandler. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Speaker 14

Well, I want to follow directly on that. Maybe similar thoughts about the home part of the business, Michael?

Speaker 6

Sure. Just in terms of outlook for trends, Paul?

Speaker 14

Yes, please.

Speaker 6

Yes. So in property, Again, the big driver of the improvement this quarter really was catastrophes and non cat weather. The non cat weather and I guess the non weather loss dynamic that I would elaborate on is A lot of that non cat weather favorability and some of the non weather loss favorability that we've commented on throughout 2023 really has been frequency driven. We do still see pretty healthy severity trends in the property space offsetting some of that favorable frequency. Now again, we've had favorable results in the quarter, so the net is a good guy, but labor and some large loss pressure along with that favorable frequency is what's happening underneath the loss levels in property.

Speaker 14

I'm just curious, For some time, I think we've seen a little bit of a divergence between commercial auto and personal lines auto. Is that continue to be the case or are we seeing pretty similar plane trends in across sort of anything that drives?

Speaker 2

I think broadly the claim trends are similar. I mean we see similar threads. It's obviously mean that the exposures are different, the size of the vehicles are different. You know, Mike, what else would you add?

Speaker 6

Limits profile and limits, right? Your mix of vehicle versus bodily injury is different between Business Insurance and Personal Insurance, right, Greg? Yes.

Speaker 4

I mean, one of the benefits, Paul, of having 2 large private passenger like and the trends are very similar both on a frequency and severity basis between the two portfolios.

Operator

We have time for one more question. And that question comes from the line of Andrew Kligerman from TD Cowen. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Speaker 15

Hey, great. I made the queue. Question most of my questions are answered, but the in Bond and Specialty, The results looked exceptional, but in the context of renewal premium change, I'm very curious as How pricing fared with regard to D and O and cyber in the quarter and what you're thinking in terms of those two lines going into 2024?

Speaker 5

Yes. Andrew, this is Jeff Klink. So relative to D and O and cyber, public D and O pricing continues to be, I'd say, more pressured relative to the other liability lines. I would remind you that for public D and O and our management liability book, we're relatively underweight there. That's not been a major area of focus for us.

Speaker 5

On the cyber side, we continue to see some modest negative pricing there. I think given some broader market perception on the returns in the line, again, we feel really good about our execution there. We closely monitor our return profiles and are comfortable with our execution both for those lines of business and management liability.

Speaker 15

Got it. Great. And along the same lines in business insurance with regard to workers' comp, I was wondering If you could put some numbers around that paid medical severity higher than the benign Numbers you were seeing during the pandemic, I think that was in response to Mayer's question. And then the same question along the pricing What are you thinking about going into 2024 as you proceed?

Speaker 3

Andrew, it's Dan. So I'll start and disappoint you on the work comp severity. So we're not going to put a number on it. But again, It's been benign. We've seen some of those numbers move up, but your starting point matters.

Speaker 3

So what you assumed Medical severity was going to be inside of your overall loss pick. Pick really matters in terms of whether a move up is problematic for you or not. And again, we saw more favorable reserve development this quarter. And then in terms of pricing and I'll Turn it to Greg. I think the returns in comp have continued to be good.

Speaker 3

So pure rate has continued to be slightly negative for us. We are getting strong exposure increases. Greg referenced in the select comments a few minutes ago, that's the poster child for where A lot of that exposure behaves like rate because it's the same worker just earning a higher wage and we're getting paid a higher price for it. The rating agencies, the bureaus are looking at their data on a lagging basis and until returns come under some pressure in work comp, We wouldn't be surprised to see this environment stay pretty steady.

Speaker 4

Something to add, Dave. Perfect.

Operator

Thank you. I will now turn the conference over to Ms. Abby Goldstein for closing remarks.

Speaker 1

Thank you everyone for joining us today. We appreciate your time. And as always, if there's any follow-up, please feel free to reach out. Have a great day.

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Earnings Conference Call
Travelers Companies Q4 2023
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