Atmos Energy Q1 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Presentation

[Operator]

Thank you for standing by. At this time, I'd like to welcome everyone to the Atmos Energy Corporation Fiscal 2024 First Quarter Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Thank you.

And now, I'd like to turn the call over to Dan Meziere, Vice President of Investor Relations and Treasurer. Please go ahead.

[Dan Meziere, Vice President, Investor Relations and Treasurer at Atmos Energy]

Thank you, Adam. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us -- for joining our fiscal 2024 first quarter earnings call. With me today are Kevin Akers, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Chris Forsythe, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Our earnings release and conference call slide presentation, which we will reference in our prepared remarks, are available at atmosenergy.com, under the Investor Relations tab.

As we review these financial results and discuss future expectations, please keep in mind that some of our discussion might contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Securities Act and the Securities Exchange Act. Our forward-looking statements and projections could differ materially from actual results. The factors that could cause such material differences are outlined on Slide 26 and are more fully described in our SEC filings.

With that, I will turn the call over to Kevin Akers, our President and CEO. Kevin?

[Kevin Akers, President and Chief Executive Officer at Atmos Energy]

Thank you, Dan, and good morning, everyone. We appreciate your interest in Atmos Energy. I want to begin today's call by thanking all 5,000 Atmos Energy employees for their exceptional effort and dedication to serving our customers under very challenging weather conditions recently. And thank you for all that you do for our customers and our communities every day. You are truly the heart and soul of Atmos Energy. Our first quarter results reflect that effort, dedication and focus as we continued modernizing our natural gas distribution, transmission and storage systems on our journey to be the safest provider of natural gas services.

Yesterday, we reported fiscal '24 first quarter net income of $311 million or $2.08 per diluted share. And our first fiscal quarter capital spending was $770 million to support continued system modernization and growth across our service territories. For the 12 months ended December 31, 2023, we added over 58,000 new customers with over 44,000 of those located here in Texas. And the Texas Workforce Commission reported in January that the seasonally adjusted number of employees reached a new record high at over 14.1 million. Texas once again added jobs at a faster rate than the nation over the last 12 months, adding nearly 370,000 jobs in calendar 2023, representing a 2.7% annual growth rate.

Additionally, we added 11 new industrial customers, which when fully operational, we anticipate consuming approximately 2.5 Bcf of gas annually. That is volumetrically equivalent to 45,000 residential customers. Commercial customer growth remains solid as well, with over 1,000 commercial customers connecting to the system during the first quarter. This growing demand from all of our customer classes demonstrates the value and vital role natural gas plays in economic development across our service territories.

In APT, we completed several projects that will enhance the safety, reliability, versatility and supply diversification of our system and support the continued growth we are seeing in the local distribution companies behind APT system. During the quarter, we placed in service Line PC, which connected the Southern end of APT system with the 42-inch Kinder Morgan Permian Highway line that runs from Waha to Katy. Our 22 miles, 36-inch Line PC supports the current demand and forecasted growth to the North of Austin in both Williamson and Travis counties located in Texas as well as increases supply diversity in this service area.

Additionally, we placed in service Phase 3 of our four-phase 104 miles Line S-2 project. As a reminder, Line S-2 brings supply from the Haynesville and Cotton Valley Shell place to the East side of the growing Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex. This third phase replaced 22 miles of 14-inch and 20-inch pipeline with 36-inch pipeline. The final phase of this project is scheduled to be completed by the end of this calendar year. And we completed the first phase of our Line WA Loop project, 24 miles of 36-inch pipeline. This multi-phase project will fortify APT's system that serves the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex by installing approximately 80 miles of 36-inch transmission pipeline.

Our customer support associates and service technicians continued their exceptional customer service and once again received a 98% satisfaction rating from customers during the first quarter. Our customer advocacy team and customer support agents continued their outreach efforts to energy assistance agencies and customers during the first quarter. Through those efforts, the team helped nearly 17,000 customers receive over $5 million in funding assistance. As a reminder, during fiscal '23, our energy assistance teams helped over 60,000 customers receive over $29 million of financial assistance to help with their monthly bill.

Before I turn the call over to Chris, I want to comment on an incident that the National Transportation Safety Board is investigating. The incident occurred at a Jackson, Mississippi residence on January 24 and resulted in one fatality. Atmos Energy is working with the National Transportation Safety Board and other federal and state regulators to help determine possible causes. We want to thank the first responders and emergency responders for their support and assistance. Our hearts, our thoughts and our prayers have been and continue to be with the family.

I will now turn the call over to Chris for his update.

[Christopher T. Forsythe, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer at Atmos Energy]

Thank you, Kevin, and thank you to everyone for joining us this morning. As Kevin mentioned, our fiscal '24 first quarter earnings per share was $2.08, which represents an 8.9% increase over the $1.91 per share reported in the prior year quarter. Consolidated operating income increased to $399 million or 24% in the first quarter. This performance was driven by several factors. Rate increases in both of our operating segments totaled $84 million. Residential commercial customer growth, combined with higher industrial load, increased operating income by an additional $6 million.

Consolidated O&M expense decreased $19 million, primarily driven by lower bad debt expense. In December, the Mississippi Public Service Commission modified how we recover uncollectible customer accounts. Previously, we have recovered these costs through a stable rate filing over a 12-month period. Effective April of 2022, we will now recover these costs through a purchase gas cost mechanism over a 24-month period, which will benefit our customers. As a result of this change, we reduced our bad debt expense by $14 million during the first quarter. Additionally, with this change, we now collect a bad debt portion of our uncollectible accounts through a purchase gas -- gas cost recovery mechanisms, 88% of our customer base. O&M decreased an additional $5 million, primarily due to the timing of in-line inspection work at APT that we highlighted last fiscal year.

Finally, operating income was favorably impacted by a legislative change in Texas to reduce property tax expenses. In the summer of 2023, the Texas Legislature voted to allocate $18 million in the State's budget surplus to offset property taxes cessed [Phonetic] on residential commercial property owners for calendar years 2023 and 2024. This legislation became effective during our first fiscal quarter after voters approved the legislation in November. In fiscal '24, we expect this legislation will reduce our property tax expense by $20 million to $22 million. We recognize approximately $6 million of this impact during the first quarter. This reduction was not reflected in the fiscal '24 earnings per share guidance we issued in November.

We continue to execute our annual regulatory filing strategy. To date, we have implemented $167 million annualized regulatory outcomes. This amount includes the $27 million associated with APT's general rate case that was approved in December. We currently have about $61 million in progress and plan to make additional filings this fiscal year seeking $340 million to $370 million annualized operating income increases.

During the quarter, we completed over $1.1 billion of long-term debt equity financing, highlighted by the $900 million long-term debt financing we completed in October 2023. Additionally, we settled $254 million in equity forward agreement. This financing provides the necessary funding for our operations, while maintaining the strength of our balance sheet and overall financial profile. Our equity capitalization as of December 31 was 60% and we did not have any short-term debt outstanding.

We offset $3.2 billion in available liquidity. This amount includes approximately $433 million of net proceeds available under existing foreign sale agreements, which is expected to satisfy the remainder of our anticipated fiscal '24 equity needs and a portion of our anticipated equity needs for fiscal '25. Our weighted average cost of debt is 4.1% and our weighted average maturity is approximately 18 years with our next significant refinancing scheduled for June of 2027. We continue to expect to have limited exposure to floating interest rates in fiscal '24.

Finally, we have $900 million in forward starting interest rate swaps in place to hedge portions or anticipated long-term debt issuances in fiscal '25 and fiscal '26. As a reminder, the effective weighted average treasury rate of these swaps is 1.54%.

In closing, we are off to a good start for the fiscal year. The execution of our operational, financial and regulatory plans by our employees positions us well to sustain our success. We continue to expect fiscal '24 earnings per share to be in the range of $6.45 and $6.65 per share, inclusive of the favorable impact of the property tax legislation changes in Texas.

Thank you for your time this morning. I will now open the call up for questions.

Questions and Answers

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of David Arcaro with Morgan Stanley. Your line is open.

[David Arcaro, Analyst at Morgan Stanley]

Hey, good morning. Thanks so much for taking my questions. Hope you're doing well.

[Kevin Akers, President and Chief Executive Officer at Atmos Energy]

Good morning, David.

[David Arcaro, Analyst at Morgan Stanley]

Let's see. I might have missed the details here. Could you just elaborate a bit on that property tax impact and the change? What EPS impact does that have for the full year this year? And did you say it's not currently embedded in the EPS guidance?

[Christopher T. Forsythe, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer at Atmos Energy]

Yeah. The property tax impact for the full fiscal year is expected to be between $20 million and $22 million pre-tax after taking into consideration the property -- the expected tax rates we put into our investor deck and the range of the share -- weighted average shares we have out there, we're anticipating that impact between -- to be between $0.09 and $0.11. And currently, that is reflected in our current guidance. It was not reflected in our guidance previously.

[David Arcaro, Analyst at Morgan Stanley]

Okay. Got it. Understood. Thanks for that color. Let's see. Wanted to get your color on growth and customer additions. It sounds like you've continued to see strong customer additions in the quarter. I guess, what are your expectations for that continuing just given what you're seeing in building activities and the economic backdrop in your service territories?

[Kevin Akers, President and Chief Executive Officer at Atmos Energy]

Yeah. In our conversations with our builders and developers, obviously, we're still in the winter period. So connections on existing housing will continue through this period. But we'd anticipate that activity picking back up as you head into spring and construction picking back up. But again, if you look at some of the studies that have been out there for quite a while, we've referenced on other calls, one in particular, there's an anticipated 1 million additional people projected to come to the metroplex by 2028. So we think that will definitely impact housing, which is already low on an existing home sale on the current market basis. I think the inventory right now is currently around two months or so. We're told they like to keep that somewhere north of about four to five months worth of inventory. So we could see the builders again trying to meet that demand, picking things back up in the spring as we head into that construction season. And again, we continue to see good diversified growth across the territory, particularly on the industrial side. With those 11 that we added in this previous quarter coming from fertilizer industry, vegetable oils, concrete, asphalt plants, a good mixture of a lot of things across all eight states.

[David Arcaro, Analyst at Morgan Stanley]

Got it. That's helpful color. I appreciate that. And then maybe just one more for me. I was wondering what your expectations are ahead of just a couple of the general rate cases you have later this year in West Texas and mid-tex. Just curious, if there are any major things that you need to address, maybe out of the ordinary in those rate cases that would cause it to be a big ask or more contentious than usual?

[Kevin Akers, President and Chief Executive Officer at Atmos Energy]

No, David, nothing contentious or unusual. And as a reminder, these general rate cases are being filed because those jurisdictions are under our grit mechanism here in Texas. We have five consecutive filings that we have to make before we're going back into basically refresh or reset equity capitalization, ROEs and the like. So we expect these to be fairly down the middle type of filings with nothing out of the ordinary or unusual and we're planning to make those filings some time later this calendar year.

[David Arcaro, Analyst at Morgan Stanley]

Okay. That makes sense. Thanks so much.

[Kevin Akers, President and Chief Executive Officer at Atmos Energy]

Thank you.

[Operator]

Your next question comes from the line of Julien Dumoulin-Smith with Bank of America. Your line is open.

[Julien Dumoulin-Smith, Analyst at Bank of America]

Hey, good morning, guys. Thanks for the time. Appreciate it. Well done here. Look, just to follow-up on the first question, with respect to the tax change there, I mean, just are there other offsets? Do you think about this as being an opportunity to accelerate some work that you might have been contemplating for future periods here or is this kind of -- really kind of expected to drop to the bottom line, if you will?

[Kevin Akers, President and Chief Executive Officer at Atmos Energy]

Yeah, that's a good question, Julien. I mean, at this point, we're sitting here in the middle of the winter heating season. We're beginning to think about what we look like going into the summer months in terms of compliance work, other activities. That's still all under evaluation right now. And we'll have a better update for you in May.

[Julien Dumoulin-Smith, Analyst at Bank of America]

Right, okay. Yeah, fair enough. I get it. You're not quite in the prime season. You got latitude here. Curious to see what happens. To that end, though, I mean, if we can just -- I know we've talked about the O&M backdrop a few different times since we're talking about here, I mean, what are you seeing in terms of just as you plan ahead on this front, just being able to hold the line on the variety of different new customer costs and other factors that have driven up the inflationary bucket of late? I know that this inflation conversation has impacted number of your peers. How are you thinking about that today here, especially within that range?

[Kevin Akers, President and Chief Executive Officer at Atmos Energy]

Yeah, Julien. I mean, again, we stand by what we have out there in our deck and what we've talked about before in our 3% to 3.5% range that's out there. Obviously, we have folks out on the system ensuring reliability this past winter storm with Heather, which I think we did an exceptional job of continuing to serve our customers out there in that historic winter storm. So we'll continue to evaluate opportunities, whether those are hydrostatic tests on APT, compliance work across the system. So at this point, we're still comfortable with the range we have out there and where we set the first quarter into the fiscal year.

[Julien Dumoulin-Smith, Analyst at Bank of America]

Yeah, all right. Well, guys -- and just one quick follow-up here, if I can, since you mentioned we're still here in the sort of winter season. Obviously, we saw winter dynamics play themselves out in recent weeks across some of your -- good chunk of your service territory. Any considerations about how your system performed and/or commentary about how that positions you? Again, I get that a lot of this is ultimately just servicing your customers here and flow throughs numerous number -- numerous set of riders across your jurisdictions. But any commentary about the experience in recent weeks obviously in sharp contrast to some prior years here?

[Kevin Akers, President and Chief Executive Officer at Atmos Energy]

Yeah. As I said at our opening, very proud of all 5,000 Atmos Energy employees. I think we did an exceptional job with this winter storm. The severity that it came in. I think depending on where you want to look at for heating degree day data, it was some 78% colder than normal, in some locations 200% colder than last year. So again, this takes a sustained period of investment and infrastructure improvement across your system.

Obviously, we did a lot of projects from last year, but we've been at this now for over 12 years improving our infrastructure. That's what allows us to be able to serve during these historic periods when they come in. You just can't do that overnight. I think our team's done a good job of identifying opportunities throughout the years and executing on those projects, but also very proud of our product.

Look, for that week, I think we set a record across the country at 174 Bcf of natural gas with a peak of 72 Bcf for residential and commercial. So again, very proud of natural gas and what it does. I think if you look at the energy output for that week, according to EIA, natural gas, petroleum and coal consumed 85% of the energy demand for that period. So very proud of what we continue to do as an industry.

[Julien Dumoulin-Smith, Analyst at Bank of America]

Excellent. Well, I will leave it there. Thank you, sir. Appreciate it.

[Kevin Akers, President and Chief Executive Officer at Atmos Energy]

Thank you.

[Operator]

Your next question comes from the line of Richard Sunderland with J.P. Morgan. Your line is open.

[Richard Sunderland, Analyst at J.P. Morgan]

Hi. Good morning, and thank you for the time today. I'd like to circle back on the property tax item one more time, if I could. Just to be clear on that benefit, what you quantified the full amount of the benefit or is that net of any reserves for return to customers? How are you thinking about that latter portion?

[Kevin Akers, President and Chief Executive Officer at Atmos Energy]

Yeah. That number is the benefits relative to our guidance for fiscal '24. We don't have -- I mean, what will happen is, for accounting purposes, we recognized the impact in this fiscal year. Over the next couple, two and a half years, we'll return that benefit back to our customers through our various mechanisms here in Texas. So it's really a temporary timing difference, if you will, that does impact our financial results for fiscal '24. And as I mentioned earlier, we'll have an update on what we think that will impact us for the full fiscal year later this fiscal year -- I guess, primarily in our next call.

[Richard Sunderland, Analyst at J.P. Morgan]

Okay, understood. Very helpful color there. Thank you. And then just turning to the Fort Worth incident, I was curious if you could talk a little bit about the site status? Just seeing some media headlines around debris removal, any current color there would be helpful? Also, who is currently investigating?

[Kevin Akers, President and Chief Executive Officer at Atmos Energy]

The site I believe has been turned over according to the articles that we're seeing, the information that's been relayed to us, back to the owners of it I believe and they're in charge of the removal at this point. And obviously, you've seen our statements out there, our press release that our system has been tested and was not involved.

[Richard Sunderland, Analyst at J.P. Morgan]

Great. Thank you very much.

[Kevin Akers, President and Chief Executive Officer at Atmos Energy]

Thank you.

[Operator]

Your next question comes from the line of Nick Campanella with Barclays. Your line is open.

[Nicholas Campanella, Analyst at Barclays]

Hey, everyone. Thanks for taking my question. And sorry to ask about property taxes, but I just wanted to triple check. What's the negative offset to that $0.09 to $0.11 property tax in the guide for '24?

[Kevin Akers, President and Chief Executive Officer at Atmos Energy]

Well, right now, Nick, as we talked about a couple of minutes ago, we're still in the middle of the winter heating season. We need to see how our margins hold up as we move into January, February, March. We're still evaluating our O&M needs for the fiscal year. So we felt it was prudent to maintain the guidance in this range at this point and provide a more thorough update once we get through the winter heating season.

[Nicholas Campanella, Analyst at Barclays]

Hey, I really appreciate that. And then, Chris, I know you said in your prepared remarks, you're priced -- you're fully priced for '24 equity needs. How much is remaining left to do for 2025 before you've kind of taken care of that fully?

[Christopher T. Forsythe, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer at Atmos Energy]

Yeah. We still have ways to go on that. For legal reasons, I can't say precisely how much has been priced. But under the terms of the agreements that we have in place that we will just continue to stay ahead of our equity needs through the ATM throughout this fiscal year in preparation for FY '25.

[Nicholas Campanella, Analyst at Barclays]

Got it. And then just one last one for me. I know that the LDC M&A market continues to be active and there's potentially even processes going around in states that are either adjacent or in your current territories. I'm just -- can you just remind everyone what your kind of your message is around M&A and your philosophy there? Thank you.

[Kevin Akers, President and Chief Executive Officer at Atmos Energy]

Sure. I'd be glad to. Again, we've talked about our growth on every call here for several years now. We continue to grow at close to 2% or above 2%, particularly in our mid-tex division there. So we have that mechanism with good organic growth. You couple that with the rate construct that we have where we start to earn on 90% of our investment in six months, 99% in 12 months. It's hard for us to see any sort of deal that could compete with the growth and regulatory construct that we have. So we're very proud of our systems, what we do, our relationships, our execution on that. So at this point, we are continuing to focus on and remain dedicated to system modernization.

[Nicholas Campanella, Analyst at Barclays]

All right. Can't say I expected a different answer. So that's very much in line. Thank you so much. Have a great day.

[Kevin Akers, President and Chief Executive Officer at Atmos Energy]

Thank you.

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions] And our next question comes from the line of Ryan Levine with Citi. Your line is open.

[Ryan Levine, Analyst at Citigroup Investment Research]

Hi, everybody.

[Kevin Akers, President and Chief Executive Officer at Atmos Energy]

Good morning.

[Ryan Levine, Analyst at Citigroup Investment Research]

Is there any color you could share around what you're seeing in the legislative sessions and across your service territories? Is there any bills that are being proposed that you're watching closely or that could have an impact on your business or outlook?

[Kevin Akers, President and Chief Executive Officer at Atmos Energy]

All right. I think it's still very early in a session. Those just really kicked off in some of our jurisdictions. We'll continue to monitor those. But at this point, we'll let them go about their required activity and duties and we'll continue to monitor.

[Ryan Levine, Analyst at Citigroup Investment Research]

Okay. And then in terms of the pipelines or LDC network itself, are you seeing any jurisdictions that are looking to re-rate some pipes that may be classified as transmission to distribution or anything along those lines?

[Kevin Akers, President and Chief Executive Officer at Atmos Energy]

No, we're not is the short answer to the question. Again, I believe those are all business decisions based upon the regulations at the federal level and the state level.

[Ryan Levine, Analyst at Citigroup Investment Research]

Okay. I appreciate that. Thank you.

[Operator]

Your next question comes from the line of Gabriel Moreen with Mizuho Securities. Your line is open.

[Christopher Jeffrey, Analyst at Mizuho]

Hi. This is Chris Jeffrey on for Gabe. Just one quick one on the O&M side. Just seemed like there was a change in the bad debt expense treatment that came through on the quarter. Wondering, is that all kind of realized now or will that continue to flow through future periods? And was that contemplated in the original guide?

[Christopher T. Forsythe, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer at Atmos Energy]

Yeah. So the property -- I'm sorry, not property tax. Too many questions on property tax. On the bad debt expense, that $14 million or so that we referenced, that was basically the impact for this fiscal year. We had hoped that that would come through. So that was basically reflecting in our guide.

[Christopher Jeffrey, Analyst at Mizuho]

Great. Thanks. That's it for me.

[Operator]

I will now turn the call back over to Dan Meziere for closing remarks.

[Dan Meziere, Vice President, Investor Relations and Treasurer at Atmos Energy]

We appreciate your interest in Atmos Energy. And again, thank you for joining us. The recording of this call is available for replay on our website through March 31. Have a great day.

[Operator]

[Operator Closing Remarks]

Participants

Corporate Executives

• Dan Meziere, Vice President, Investor Relations and Treasurer
• Kevin Akers, President and Chief Executive Officer
• Christopher T. Forsythe, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Analysts

• David Arcaro, Morgan Stanley
• Julien Dumoulin-Smith, Bank of America Co.
• Richard Sunderland, J.P. Morgan
• Nicholas Campanella, Barclays PLC
• Ryan Levine, Citigroup Investment Research
• Christopher Jeffrey, Mizuho