Eastman Chemical Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
February 2, 2024

There are 14 speakers on the call.

Operator

Good day, everyone, and welcome to the 4th Quarter Full Year 2023 Eastman Conference Call. Today's conference is being recorded. This call is being broadcast live on the Eastman website, www.eastman.com. We will now turn the call over to Mr. Greg Riddle of Eastman Investor Relations.

Operator

Please go ahead.

Speaker 1

Thank you, Alex, and good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us. On the call with me today are Mark Costa, Board Chair and CEO Willie MacLean, Executive Vice President and CFO and Jake LaRoe, Manager, Investor Relations. Yesterday after market close, we posted our Q4 and full year 2023 financial results news release and SEC 8 ks filing. Our slides and the related prepared remarks in the Investor Relations section of our website, www.eastman.com. Before we begin, I'll cover 2 items.

Speaker 1

1st, during this presentation, you will hear forward looking statements concerning our plans and expectations. Actual events or results could differ materially. Certain factors related to future expectations are or will be in our Q4 and full year 2023 financial results news release. During this call, in the preceding slides and prepared remarks and in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including the Form 10 ks filed for full year 2022 and the Form 10 ks to be filed for full year 2023. 2nd, earnings referenced in this presentation exclude certain non core and unusual items.

Speaker 1

Reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures and other associated disclosures, including a description of the excluded and adjusted items are available in the Q4 and full year 2023 financial results news release. I'd like to now turn the call over to Mark for some remarks.

Speaker 2

Before I jump into the Q and A, I wanted to take the opportunity to recognize the team that's been working on the methanol There's a huge team out there that's been working tremendously since our last call in October to commission and start up this facility and get us to the point where we're introducing feedstock. And that's a real remarkable accomplishment when you look over this timeframe. They've worked incredibly hard through the holidays. They've made a lot of personal sacrifice and they've got us to this stage And it's a real testament to their dedication and belief in the company and the excitement that everyone at this company has around building the circular economy. And it's also a real great example of the power of our Tennessee site.

Speaker 2

Its scale and integration has really enabled this startup process to go this quickly and well, because we have such a huge vast set of resources and capabilities, it really allowed us to swing a lot of those people from different parts of the plant into the startup process and make a significant difference. So I just wanted to express my thanks to all of the people who've been involved in this process. It's been a tremendous program and one that they really did make a lot of sacrifice and we deeply appreciate it. With that, we'll open it up to Q and A.

Operator

Thank you. Our first question for today comes from Josh Spector of UBS. Josh, your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Speaker 3

Yes, hi. Good morning. I actually wanted to follow-up on the methanol facility first, methanol office facility. So you're near getting on spec product out. I was wondering if you could talk through kind of the milestones as you go through this year.

Speaker 3

So when do you get to the point where you say Yields are as expected. You think you can get to the full operational capacity and the cost structure and therefore the EBITDA becomes in line with your long term expectations?

Speaker 2

Yes, it's a great question. 1 we're very focused on, and we are very excited to be at the stage we're at right now. As we said in our comments, we're at the point where we've been starting up the facility, complete all the commissioning, introducing feedstock and that will start to be processed in the front end of the plant, takes a little bit of time to do that get the system properly charged and then it starts going through the plant. So we feel that we're in good shape to be on spec here soon with material and recognizing revenue and getting that process going and serving our customers who are very eager to get product from us. And when I say soon, I mean sort of days or weeks, in where we sit right now.

Speaker 2

So we feel like we're on track with starting up the plant and serving customer demand relative to that $75,000,000 Now as you talk about the plant side of this, You don't go from the plants producing on spec material to full ramp up rates overnight. It takes a few months to line out the facility, optimize its operations, and make sure that everything is working properly as you scale it up. And so we'll be doing that and ramping up the production. But the way this plant works and the way we can get the recycled content out, we should be get the be able to start getting revenue relatively soon. When it comes to the demand side of things, and by the cost structure will line out over time.

Speaker 2

Right now, we're still in that preproduction phase. The expenses are a bit higher than when you just are pulling their operating resources back to sort of steady state. So front end of this from a cost point of view is a little loaded, as you would expect. The demand side, I'd say, is actually quite So what's different than most plants in this situation is we didn't start selling recycled content when the plant starts. We started it over a year ago.

Speaker 2

We have a technology called glycolysis. It's a bridging technology where we can use our existing assets. You can use sort of clean, clear bottles, which is what you have to have with glycolysis to then make recycled content. So long term, it's not a great strategy because it's very high cost to buy those clean bottles And it's not a very efficient process, in using your existing assets. But what it did allow us to do is supply recycled content polymer to a number of brands.

Speaker 2

In fact, the brands that you can see on that slide in the presentation we provided, they've already been selling our recycled content from that technology into the marketplace. So we're not trying to ramp them up. They're already ready to go in the market and very anxious to get material from us to sort of accelerate volume build into this year. So that really helps us know that we can get the price premiums we want to support our economics as well as we have a number of customers that are going to sort of buy the moment we have product coming out of the plant. And then there are a bunch of other brands we've been working on that we just didn't have the capacity to serve last year that are also very interested in the product and so we'll be qualifying them and ramping them up.

Speaker 2

What you have is a situation where the ramp up will start to help Q2 relative to Q1, but really sort of make a big difference in the second half relative to the first half of where you see this incremental EBITDA. The last point I would mention is on the cost side, normally when you build a big specialty plant, you have a huge headwind in operating costs as you start up. And we certainly have operating costs of plant, but they are really sort of offset by the preproduction expense of last year and the higher cost of this glycolysis process I just mentioned. So the costs are relatively neutral. And so that helps the revenue be flow pretty fast to EBITDA through that sort of year over year sort of steady cost structure, if you will.

Speaker 2

So that's sort of The sort of key components of it, we're very focused on just keeping the process going right now. And as I said earlier, it's just a tremendous example of teamwork out there, who are doing this through winter weather and freezing conditions, etcetera, to get this plant running.

Speaker 3

Thanks. And maybe just quickly, so as you go through all that, you made some comments that you wouldn't FID the next plant until this plant is done. I guess, Is that just on spec product or is there at some point production yield or some other metric you're looking at to say we're good, the design is fine, we're going to move ahead with that project because you seem pretty bullish about getting the customer commitments to that second plant soon. So I'm just wondering what's the limiting factor there? Thanks.

Speaker 2

There are a couple of limiting factors. 1 obviously is we want to see the Kingsport plant Technology up and running. And as you said, we want to see that the yields and efficiency are what we expect them to be, the plants running operationally well. And as I said, that's in the next couple of months that we'll sort of get those insights and knowledge to feel comfortable about the quality of this plant, because it's important to keep in mind that To minimize capital risk and construction risk, we're going to leverage and build the same plant, right, in France and the second plant. And there's obviously improvements learn through this process, but same scale, same design, so that really leveraging all the learning that we've gone through in this plant to do a better job in how we build the 2nd and third plants.

Speaker 2

So that I think is In the timeframe of what we're talking about right now from an FID point of view, the customer contracts are obviously the second component of that making that decision and the incentives for the project getting finalized is the 3rd part. We feel good about all of those and we think again in the same kind of timeframe in the next several months, we should be in a position to have FID. When construction starts, it's a little bit different than declaring FID, we're still completing the engineering and we have permitting to do on the environmental side and building permitting that It was ongoing as we speak. So we're not talking about starting actual construction until soon as probably late summer with the path that we're on right now. And that gives us all of that time to make sure we believe in how the plant is operating before you start turning dirt on the second and third plant.

Speaker 3

Got it. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from David Begleiter from Deutsche Bank. David, your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Speaker 4

Thank you. Good morning. Mark, some of your customers and peers this earnings season have noted Some modest stabilization improvement in certain markets underlying demand. Are you seeing any of that in any of your geographies or key markets?

Speaker 2

Certainly, David. What I'd say is, we are seeing I mean stabilization, absolutely. So our guidance is built on thinking that primary demand This year is going to be similar to last year in the sort of discretionary markets. In the stable markets like personal care, water treatment, Consumer Packaging, etcetera, we would expect sort of modest growth from last year. Now to be clear, last year's primary demand was low.

Speaker 2

We're not predicting an improvement in any meaningful way from those sort of low levels we were at from through last year. What I would say is, in automotive we actually are it was growing last year and we think it's going to be more flattish this year. So that's where we are in the primary demand as showed on the slide that we supplied to you guys. The key driver for pretty significant volume increase for us this year versus last year is really the So lack of destocking. When you think about the sort of volume mix impact of last year, driving earnings down about $450,000,000 And what we said in October, I think is still true.

Speaker 2

We assume about a third of that is destocking. It's probably a bit more than that, but to play it safe, we'll call it a third. That's $150,000,000 of a lack of a demand headwind from last year relative to this year. It's like an easy comp. And we can see the evidence of that playing out already in the Q4 in some markets and certainly into the first.

Speaker 2

So for example, the durables business, which consumer durables business, which is the one that was most impacted from a Demand drop last year, the second half of last year was 40% higher in volumes than the first half of last year. So you've already seen a lot of the end of destocking that's occurring there. We're still not where we want to be of course, from a market demand point of view, But it's very clear destocking is over. Same is true in a lot of the stable markets, right? Destocking occurred in personal care, water treatment, things like that in the first half of the year.

Speaker 2

By turning to the back half of the year, we're already getting to sort of some modest market growth. So for the overall year, demand was relatively flat to 2022 in some of those markets. Building construction, I think is probably still the most challenged. It was tough last year. The expectation is it's going to be tough this year, maybe even slightly down in primary demand.

Speaker 2

And but again, I think most of the destocking in that market has played out. By the end of Q4, there may be a little pieces and parts into the Q1. So you I think that that sort of on a full year basis sort of how we look at it and I would note of that $150,000,000 of lack of destocking, 2 thirds of it is in Advanced Materials. And the progression, I would say, through the quarter is looking good. So we had a soft start to January.

Speaker 2

February is already stronger orders than January, and March looks good at this point with what we can see. So that's another point to keep in mind is the Q1 is a pretty slow start, as you can clearly see in our guide. But there's a lot of upside as you move into the Q2 from seasonal build. So we do expect a normal seasonal pattern to demand this year. So even though we're not saying primary demand is going to be a lot better, Q1 is always softer, 2nd, Q3 stronger, Q4 obviously comes off in a normal pattern for us and that is how we've built our forecast around that.

Speaker 2

So that helps a lot for why things get better in the Q2. And then there's some timing issues as we identified in fibers and fluids were particularly low orders in fluids for especially heat transfer fluids and then Fibers is a customer buying pattern thing. So those orders get a lot better in 2nd quarter. So there's several things that come together along with some better spread improvements that makes Q2 a lot better than Q1, because I'm sure a lot of people have questions on that as you look at our forecast.

Speaker 4

Very good. And just briefly on ASP, you mentioned some negative price cost in 2024. Where are you expecting to see the pricing pressure in AF and P?

Speaker 2

So 1st of all, the spread management last year was great in AFP. So we do have a lot of business on price, sort of cost pass through contracts that give us very stable margin. It was very helpful in 2022 as raw materials were shooting upward, our prices kept track. And then as prices came off last year, Robin Shulking prices came off, the price contracts follow, but there's a lag. So we had improving spread last year for AFP for the year.

Speaker 2

And so that was a helpful tailwind to offset some of the volume headwinds we had in that segment. When you look at this year, there's just a bit of that lag problem again. So you've now got prices sort of stabilizing off. And so if you look at spreads this year relative to last year, there's going to be a bit of a headwind just in the way of those sort of cost pass through contracts work. So that's the primary driver of the sort of modest spread compression we expect this year relative to last year on AFP.

Speaker 3

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Frank Mitsch of Fermium Research. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Speaker 5

Thank you. And if I could follow-up just in general on pricing, as you indicated in terms of the cost through, The pass through contracts, 2022 was a very good year. And as we're ending 2023 here, pricing has been taking a bit of a hit. So how are you thinking overall about Eastman's pricing ability in 2024 For the overall enterprise?

Speaker 2

Yes. So first of all, I think it's important to have a little history around pricing because it really is a pretty Impressive story. So if you think about 2020 to 2022, our company had $2,400,000,000 of inflation. And so we had sort of CPT is trying to

Speaker 6

keep up to it, but

Speaker 2

there was still a lag that creates a compression in the prices catching up to the increases. But overall, We did an excellent job of getting prices to catch up to all that inflation by the end of 2022, but it did create a compression headwind in chasing it in the specialties in particular in 2022. So that's sort of how we entered 2023 is at a pretty high elevation with that inflation. The accomplished to 'twenty two was compression that we moved into, really doing a phenomenally good job. Our teams were just really demonstrated great commercial excellence and the real strength of the value proposition of our specialty products in holding prices outside of the cost pass through contracts in the specialties, not to mention we dramatically improved our pricing in fibers.

Speaker 2

So When you think about that $450,000,000 of volume headwind we had in $23,000,000 $50,000,000 of currency, we were able to manage price in 2023 in a very difficult economic environment entirely offset that in improvements in price relative to variable cost. And a lot of it is structural. So about 300 of that is in fibers, based on all the descriptions we've given you around where that industry is at As well as a good portion of that is in advanced materials in the interlayer business where we had extraordinarily high raw materials in 2022 that we were able Those raw material prices dropped off or prices held and we got a lot of just recovery back to normal margins in that business. So we feel really good about that and that basically means there's sort of $200,000,000 of spread expansion beyond the sort of fibers interlayers that you're managing. So our expectation this year is on the specialties, fibers is fully contracted.

Speaker 2

So the prices there are locked in. And as we said, that business will do a little bit better in earnings versus 23. In the specialties, what I'd say is that we expect Some modest price reductions, reflecting how the raw material and energy environment has improved. But overall, we would say the spreads in AM and AFP will be similar to last year. We're not going to get a tailwind out of it.

Speaker 2

Maybe there's a slight compression across those two businesses. But we really believe we'll hold on to our margins with what we see so far, certainly will in the Q1. And then we expect to have volume and Pass utilization be the key drivers for the recovery in earnings, which are pretty substantial. The destocking number I just gave you, dollars 100,000,000 of Asset utilization tailwind are pretty significant drivers of recovery this year.

Speaker 5

I got you. All right. Terrific. And then perhaps if you could, I took a look year over year. Europe actually declined less than United States.

Speaker 5

Is that really is that just a function of Europe entered the year at in a worse position? Or is there anything that you can talk about in terms of perhaps any sort of green shoots or what have you in that part of the world?

Speaker 2

So part of the reason North America is down as much as it was, it's just all of chemical intermediates sits in North America, predominantly. So when you look at all the revenue that came off in chemical intermediates, it's sort of almost all in this country. When it comes to the rest of the portfolio, I'd say we're more globally diverse and we saw Really demand come off and especially sort of across the globe, as well as the destocking across the globe. So that was more evenly First, China has got its challenges and so does Europe and U. S.

Speaker 2

Probably a little bit stronger in the economy than the other 2. From a Green Chutes point of view, Frank, I wouldn't say from a we have this into destocking, which is our primary focus right now. I think it's way too early to call markets recovering in the consumer discretionary world. So cars, Building construction, consumer durables, electronics. There may be some improvement there, but I don't think I have enough data to sort of make that declaration.

Speaker 2

But the stable markets are definitely growing. Medical is probably going to grow 4% to 5%. I mean, there's still destocking in the Q1, but the underlying market is going to grow 5%. Ag is growing, personal care, water treatment, a lot of the packaging sectors, a lot of the consumer brands are now pivoting from price to recovering volume, we'll benefit from that. So that's about half our revenue where you get that modest growth in these markets that are sort of more stable.

Speaker 5

Got you. Thanks so much.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Patrick Cunningham of Citigroup. Patrick, your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Speaker 7

Hi, thank you. Good morning. Maybe just first on Advanced Materials, can you help us understand the $450,000,000 guide there and Maybe the degree of upside beyond that, I think you get $50,000,000 from Kingsport and you're guiding to $100,000,000 for the Q1. Just given the extremity of the demand decline, utilization headwinds, destocking of 2023, is there a path to $500,000,000 or more even in just a modestly positive demand environment from here?

Speaker 2

So first, given sort of the challenges we've had in Advanced Materials with Pretty rough demand in the Q4 of 2022 and the full year of 2023. We're starting with earning our way our recovery and getting back about $450,000,000 and then working to make it better than that. But just to give you the sort of key tailwinds to go with it, The biggest driver for Advanced Materials Recovery is volume and mix. As I sort of pointed out, the corporate level, the story is pretty much an AAM story. So 2 thirds of that $150,000,000 of a lack of destocking is sort of in the outlook For this segment, I told you durables has already had significant recovery.

Speaker 2

Medical has great underlying growth. It just has a lot of stocking from a lot of caution in the supply chain crisis, that's still finishing itself out in the Q1 here, but we can see that it will be less in the second quarter and then we'll just have the growth in the back half of the year. So you've got markets that have done a lot of destocking, sort of stabilizing and the lack of destocking helping you. Then you've got the return to seasonality. So even though the Q1 is still in recovery mode.

Speaker 2

When you look to the Q2 and beyond, you've got this return of normal seasonality to this segment. So Q2, Q3 is always stronger and we expect that to be there and that order pattern I was talking about January, February, March is very much through in Advanced Materials where you can see that progression getting better. You've also got the ramp up of the methanolences plan as you noted. So that's going to get you that incremental $50,000,000 of EBITDA that you just mentioned that shows up in Advanced Materials. The other $25,000,000 is a benefit for other, just to be clear, which is where the pre production expenses of last year have been sitting.

Speaker 2

And then you got the automotive market though, even though it's going to be flat, We have a tremendous track record of growing above that market with our great strength in HUD going into more and more cars, great strength of other premium products, the acoustics, etcetera. And then importantly, even though EVs maybe not growing as fast as everyone Hoped, they're still growing much faster than ICE cars. And we get over 3 times the amount of square meters in an than we do in a nice car, very high value products because there's a lot of functionality in those products that we sell to the mineral layer. So there's a lot of leverages there that goes beyond just destocking where we're creating our own growth through innovation in circular and automotive that will drive it. And as I said earlier, we expect that sort of price cost relationship to be somewhat neutral year.

Speaker 2

So that won't be a source of tailwind, but we don't expect it to really be a significant headwind either. But all that volume shows up. And then with that, you get utilization, Right. So you've got $100,000,000 asset utilization headwind for managing inventory last year that becomes a $50,000,000 tailwind this year with this segment. So that also will be a driver for how you get about 450.

Speaker 2

So if you put all that math together, You can get to 450, you could get something greater than that, but I'd like to see proof in how the market's recovering and ramps up into the spring before we start getting beyond that.

Speaker 6

And Mark, the only thing I would add is, as we think about the year over year increase in our depreciation expense, a substantial portion of that will go to the Advanced Materials segment.

Speaker 7

Got it. Thank you. That's very helpful. And maybe just a follow-up on EVs. How much Outperformance relative to the market that you see from EV and premium volume mix impact and given that we've seen some of that headline deceleration, it leads and maybe sort of looming consumer weakness.

Speaker 7

Do you see potential that that mix improvement, outperformance is decelerating into 2024?

Speaker 2

Well, certainly, I think the rate of year over year improvement in 2024 to 2023 will be less than it was in 2023 to 2024 for the sort of data you're citing around EV growth rate. But I don't think it's significant, right? There's still a lot of applications we're winning. So there's okay, there's a primary demand issue that's slowing down, but we're also just starting to penetrate all these EV accounts and win share relative to standard interlayers and ICE cars. So you get this leverage within the market, within the EV segment itself that helps.

Speaker 2

So I don't want to oversell it. I mean, we expect an overall flat production market, Which I think is sort of consistent with what everyone else is saying. But the growth we can get in these premium is very meaningful in helping us grow above that market.

Speaker 7

Great. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Vincent Andrews of Morgan Stanley. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Speaker 8

Thank you. Mark, could you talk a little bit about Plant and plants 3, there were some comments in the prepared remarks, talking about methanolises obviously, in the prepared remarks about the teams working to sort of Make sure they can stay ahead of inflation.

Speaker 9

And I just kind of be

Speaker 8

curious how you're feeling about the CapEx estimates for those plants. We all know it's obviously an inflationary environment and we've seen some cost overruns at non related large scale projects that other folks are doing. So How are you going to stay on top of that? Is it something that you can do technically or is it going to be something you're going to have to do in terms of how you price the product?

Speaker 2

Yes. So Vincent, you're absolutely right that it's an inflation environment. Certainly, if you go back to Investor Day in December of 2021, the capital estimates we had there for both Kingsport as well as these projects have gone up, Right, which is true for every construction project I've seen in the chemical industry and probably everywhere else. So we're all managing and dealing with That inflation, and a lot of what we saw happen in Kingsport went beyond just normal Right. So we had a huge issue with the contractor not having properly skilled labor.

Speaker 2

And that productivity issue was the biggest issue we face. We also had just an endless series of severe weather events along the way. And there was a lot of engineering work we were doing in that project, and piloting of how to optimize the design of the project, why we're building it, which is never ideal, but a lot of this probably get 2 years ahead of the market And getting the product online. So we have a lot of learnings from the methanolysis project here that we're incorporating into the France and second U. S.

Speaker 2

Projects, where we're very clear on how to build them a lot more efficiently than this first one. So what I'd say is, from a CapEx point of view, there is inflation that's occurred. There is some deflation that's now in front of us in materials, even contractor labor availability is improving as we sort of are in this sort of more recessionary cycle for the materials industry, so it'll help sort of offset or slow down or maybe even decline some of that inflation. We are building the same plant again. As I said earlier, same scale, same design, Obviously, whatever learnings we have in Kingsport, we'll incorporate into it, but we're not trying to build something new.

Speaker 2

We're just building the same and you get a lot of capital efficiency when you're building serial number 2 and serial number 3 of the same plant. So there will be benefits in controlling capital both the cost and the predictability from that scopes will first be completely locked up before we start building and that will help us control CapEx relative to what I just described in Kingsport. And we're using great firms, technique floor for these projects And they've got access to an excellent set of contractors to do this. So we feel good about controlling the capital costs. They will certainly be a bit higher.

Speaker 2

And that's why we're also pursuing more incentives in both France and in the U. S. As part of the projects. So I think we feel good about that. What I would say is When we came up with the original economics and talked about returns in these projects, we gave ourselves some room for inflation and other challenges we might encounter.

Speaker 2

So the Kingfors project still at 15% return on capital despite the capital increases. And these projects are still with the proper customer contracts and incentives above 12% return on capital. Even with inflation, we feel good about the returns and feel that we're on track to get these 2 projects started this year, Assuming we hit our requirements that I mentioned earlier, we got to still get those three things, customers, incentives and finalize the capital number.

Speaker 8

Thanks very much.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Mike Lighthead from Barclays. Mike, the line is now open. Please go ahead.

Speaker 9

Great. Thank you. Good morning, guys. First question, I want to circle back on the EPS outlook. I think the last number of years, The Q1 is roughly 25% of what Eastman's full year EPS turns out to be.

Speaker 9

This year, 1Q is maybe 18% or so of the

Speaker 2

full year guide. So Can you

Speaker 9

talk through why this year's 1Q is a bit different? Is it mainly the

Speaker 5

lingering destocking that gets you

Speaker 9

a bit better into 2Q there? Thank you.

Speaker 6

Yes. I think as Mark has outlined, we expect a traditional curve, right? We're growing earnings through Q1. Traditionally, Q2 and Q3 are our best quarters, and then there's a seasonal decline in Q4. Also, as we've highlighted And also on a year over year basis, we expect the second half is where we'll pick up most of the utilization benefit as well as the benefits from our Kingsport methanolises facility.

Speaker 6

So there's a combination of factors of the pace that we're seeing the order books, traditional seasonality as well as the specific items that impact us in 2023 that are turning into Tailwinds in 24. Those were the key items, Mark.

Speaker 2

I would just add there's a couple of unique elements of Q1 beyond just the seasonal pattern where you've got Oddly, low orders from the fibers customers, no volume risk on the contract that they're just not buying as much In Q1 as they will do in Q2, Q3, and so that's sort of putting some pressure on there that's sort of beyond seasonality. Same is true in the just timing of fluid fills, not much going on at all in Q1, but we have more in Q2. So there's a few aspects beyond just sort of normal that sort of impacting the and continued destocking in ag and medical beyond just the seasonal pattern that mostly will play out in Q1.

Speaker 9

Great. That's helpful. And then just briefly on methanalysis plants 23 again, Mark, if I take some of your commentary about if all goes to plan, hopefully breaking ground, I think, by later this year. Is it fair to say these plants obviously will have a little bit of efficiency or a lot of efficiency gains from rebuilding the first plant. But is it fair to say that these plants commercially would be running something like in mid-twenty 26 as a starting point?

Speaker 2

I know with the schedule we're on now, we're more into 27 than 26 for when these projects will start. If you go back to sort of our original estimates, there's certainly efficiency and timing we're pursuing that will allow us to build these plants more efficiently, but we're also building a lot more plants, in this case, right, because it's not just a methanolist plant we're building. We're building Infrastructure on a greenfield side in France, we've got polymer lines that we're also building all at the same time. So when you put it all together, it's just It takes a certain amount of time to get it done. But the key is the markets certainly very eager for the product.

Speaker 2

They have Very significant deadlines in 2,030 that they have to hit. So we're certainly well within making sure that we're ramping up and helping them get to their targets. But we want to make sure we've really learned everything we can from Kingsport before we start the construction. And so that's sort of that 6, 9 months delay that sort of occurred from what we were originally thinking.

Speaker 9

Great. Thank

Operator

you. Thank you. Our next question comes from Jeff Zekauskas of JPMorgan. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Speaker 10

Thanks very much. I think in the Advanced Materials discussion, There was some noting of weak 4th quarter demand. And Asian auto production is always very strong in the Q4, especially EV production. So is it the case that your EV exposure in Advanced Materials is more with domestic and European companies rather than with Chinese companies?

Speaker 2

So, Jeff, when it comes to the Q4, there was a lot of moving parts for AM as a segment involved in that. So on the auto side, We do have good relationships and positions with some of the Chinese EV makers as well as the Western EV makers. That has nothing to do with sort of the quarter. Auto demand was better. You can't remember performance films is A key part of that, not just interlayers, where we're going on both EVs as well as ice cars and our paint protection film.

Speaker 2

And so it's only the interlayer part That really applies to your question around sort of the OEM manufacturers from an interlayer point of view. So I think that that's not a significant factor. The bigger factors were it's just destocking continued longer than we expected in medical and packaging on the specialty plastics side that caused volume mix to be a little bit less than what we were projecting in October. That was the entirety The difference, I mean, overall, the auto market is sort of moderating a bit, as you can see from the production data in total that has an impact, but we were still growing above that market in Q4 and we'll continue to grow above that market all year this year.

Speaker 10

I think in the original idea for the methanolysis projects, you were going to spend 250,000,000 for the project itself in Kingsport with an additional $175,000,000 for Triton. And I don't know if you partly built the Triton plant or the Triton plant wasn't built at all. But in the non Triton piece, The original idea was $250,000,000 What did you spend? And in the future plans, I believe the Estimate was $600,000,000 to $800,000,000 What is the estimate now? In that, what you say Is that you have a good return on capital or you think you can work that out with your customer base, but the customer base you need to have an expectation of what the capital expenditures are in order to negotiate a level of a good return on capital.

Speaker 10

So I think originally all of this was supposed to cost 1,800,000,000 What's the number now? Can you help us?

Speaker 6

Jeff, Let's start the last update that we gave on all the programs was saying that the 3 methanolysis facilities would be approximately $2,250,000,000 Obviously, Mark has also highlighted there was quite a bit of inflation since 2021. And I think that estimate is reflective of that. And every project over this time frame, including ours, is at that level. Also, I would say, we've been able to handle the CapEx increases that have been above our estimate from a few years ago within our capital budgets that we've outlined and expenditures over the last couple of years. It was fully incorporated into our 2022 and 2023 spend.

Speaker 6

And I referenced earlier that we had roughly $30,000,000 of increased depreciation expense going from 20.20 3 to 24 and a substantial portion of that is related to the Kingsport Methanolysis facility. That directionally gives you the magnitude. We're going to be disciplined as we move forward, as we think about both from generating the cash flow to fund these, but also on the returns. And we believe that Advanced Materials return to growth will be accelerated by having this Methanolysis facility and our renewed brands with our customers.

Speaker 2

So, Jeff, I mean, there's no question that the capital numbers I'm sorry, just the capital numbers are up. We're also pursuing a lot more incentives to offset some of those capital numbers. So until we get that all finalized, I don't want to just keep updating numbers. So once we have clarity on them and the total economics as well as what we achieved with customers On the pricing premiums we can get to fund it, we will be able to sort of give you a more clear answer on your questions. I mean the incremental $30,000,000 of depreciation, a good portion of not all, but a good portion of that is Kingsport plants, you guys can work out with the project costs.

Speaker 2

Sorry, you were saying something to

Speaker 1

Did you

Speaker 10

Did you partly build the Triton facility and the Triton expansion?

Speaker 2

Oh, sorry. Yes. We started the construction of it. The early Yes, Jeff, we started the early construction part of the Triton line and then paused it. And we're going to restart that as we Align it with our outlook on Triton demand, which is improving a lot this quarter.

Speaker 2

So we'll see how we judge the Triton demand in this next quarter or when we need to get that going again to make sure we don't short the market.

Speaker 10

Okay, great. Thank you so much.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from John Roberts of Mizuho. John, your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Speaker 11

Thank you. Are the SIG TO contracts working as expected in 2024. And do you think you get to a point where the decline in sigto volume is offset by the new products and fibers so that the overall segment has flat to up volume?

Speaker 2

Great question. I'm a big fan of cellulose extreme these days, John. We've gone through a rough patch for quite some time. It's great to have the structural market of the tow business back to being where it was very stable and at the profit levels that allow us to reliably supply our customers. And they're very focused on security, supply and reliability, and they placed a lot of value on us in this industry being able to provide that.

Speaker 2

So our contracts were 100% contracted this year for volume and price. And so we feel good about The earnings stability we'll have in that business this year as we said it will be somewhat better than last year. And then we've got 90% of our contracts in place for 2025 and close to 70% in 20 sticks. So we feel good about how this on a tow business is going to provide stable earnings And cash, a lot of cash, out of this business. And then as you just noted on top of that, you now have growth in the fibers business.

Speaker 2

That's part of that equation that allows us to sort of push our assets and utilization and value. And then Aventa, which is something we'll probably talk to you more about in the spring, is really on a great path. This is where we figured out how to take our cellulose acetate and foam it where it's a drop in replacement to polystyrene for protein tray, chicken and pork trays in the grocery store that you see all the time or other sort of foam clamshells etcetera. And that industry has a serious issue about getting out of polystyrene. We have a great value proposition with the cellulosic material where it's a drop in to their existing equipment and it's certified to biodegrade not just in industrial but also at home settings, which is equivalent to landfill.

Speaker 2

So you really have a biodegradable solution to throw this stuff away with all the sort of meat juice and everything else that's with it, that can't be recycled. So, very big market, a lot of opportunity, good margins, and something that we think will be commercial and grow this year and build into something meaningful next year. So we'll tell you a lot more about that once we have the customer announcements to go with it. But when you put all that together, it does turn the cellulosic stream into a growth stream along with the polyester stream, both tied to sustainability and circular economy trends that are presenting a huge amount of volume growth like Triton replacing Polycarbon BPA, we can have much higher growth rate than underlying markets as we're replacing polystyrene or we're replacing other plastics with the recycled content made products, that can give us a lot of levered growth. And the one thing you know about Advanced Materials on both sides is there's a lot of fixed cost leverage.

Speaker 2

So you've seen the sort of pain of that in the Q4 of 2022 and 2023, But it looks exactly the same on the way up. So as you get volume coming back, the fixed cost leverage of these very high margin products across especially plastics and now some of it inside cellulosics, which also has a lot of fixed costs, is very attractive.

Speaker 9

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Mike Ceeson of Wells Fargo.

Speaker 4

Nice outlook for 24 so far. I'm just curious, Mark, your volumes were down mid single digits in 4th. It's been Quite some time since we've seen volume growth, when do you think ASP and AM will sort of turn the quarter and what type of volume growth do you think the businesses need to generate the midpoint of your guide?

Speaker 2

Yes, it's a great question. I think that We'll certainly turn the quarter in Q2 and the back half of this year. It's a much closer call in Q1 Because of some of these unique things I've talked about overall. I mean, this fill this timing on fills and cover buying and fibers is a bit bumpy. And you still have some destocking going on in ag and medical, those kind of things that are certainly weighed on Q4 and we'll weigh on Q1 to some degree.

Speaker 2

But we are seeing volumes improve in sort of the core businesses, the ones, especially the ones that all started destocking earlier, whether it's consumer durables, building construction, etcetera. You can definitely see That destocking is over. We just don't have everything done with that topic. I'll be happy to see it. It is extraordinary when you think about We're sort of in the 6th quarter of destocking.

Speaker 2

2020 had like 2 quarters and 2,009 9 like 3 quarters. So we are in uncharted territory on this destocking thing and we all need to own that. But You can definitely see it's coming to an end and we're happy to get our production volumes connected back to markets and that will give us a nice recovery this year.

Speaker 4

Got it. And then just quick follow-up on, adjusted EBIT margins for AFP and AM. It looks like we'll see some improvement in 2024 versus 23, but historically they've been both of those have been closer to 20%. Is that sort of where you think margins can get to over time?

Speaker 6

Mike, this is Willie. As Mark has highlighted, as we get the benefits of that fixed cost leverage as well as we get the mix upgrades with our circular solution, we definitely believe both AM and AFP can grow back to those and towards those 20% type margins.

Speaker 3

Great. Thank you.

Speaker 12

Thanks, Mike.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes Alexey Yefremov of KeyBanc Capital Markets. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Speaker 13

Thanks. Good morning, everyone. Are you likely to stagger construction of methanolysis number 2 and number 3? Or do you think you're strong enough capital position and confidence in this business to build the 2 simultaneously?

Speaker 6

I would highlight, we would expect that we would stagger these Aleksey. There's not going to be a significant difference, but they will definitely be staggered with the France project, As Mark said, breaking ground in late summer. And then as we make progress on that, we would look to then shortly after that to start our 2nd U. S. Project.

Speaker 13

Thanks. And staying on the same topic, do you have any significant number of customers who might be on the fence right now telling you they'd like To see the Kingsport plant start up and then if that works well, there could be a lot more customers willing to sign up for the other 2?

Speaker 2

No, we definitely think so. I mean, this industry doesn't have a lot of examples of inventing and having successful environmental technology solutions, whether it's recycle content or carbon efficiency. So customers are cautious about how much they want to sign up and buy until they really have proof that it's going to be available reliably at prices that make sense to them. And so I think we're already in the market fortunately confirming our price expectations with Pepsi contract with the specialties that we're already selling. So we feel good about that.

Speaker 2

But I think there is a lot of potential pent up demand Once the plant is up and running and validated, that will certainly help load this plant. Obviously, that's part of our assumption around the $75,000,000 of incremental EBITDA this year and that will help give us upside to it. Downside of course is markets are weak and so there's just a limitation at the rate at which customers are going to launch products in a weak market. So you have to net those together and trying to come up with the appropriate forecast, which we've attempted to do with this $75,000,000 EBITDA guide for the first line for this year. And then obviously that will continue to ramp up and be a significant tailwind in 2025 relative to 2024.

Speaker 13

Thanks Mark.

Speaker 2

Yes.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Kevin McCarthy of Vertical Research Partners. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Speaker 11

Yes. Thank you and good morning. Mark, if the methanolysis startup and ramp go smoothly such that you earn $75,000,000 in EBITDA as you've indicated, What could that earnings level become in 2025?

Speaker 6

Kevin, this is Willie. What I would highlight is, As we've talked about, roughly $50,000,000 of EBITDA will come in the Advanced Materials segment. That's primarily in the second half. So as I think about where we'll be effective, we will be at greater than a $75,000,000 EBITDA run rate within that business. We've done a strong pathway to exiting 2025 as we think about brands and being able to connect into even more brand launches in 2025 That will be at roughly $150,000,000 run rate as we exit 2025.

Speaker 6

And then ultimately, we expect greater than $150,000,000 of EBITDA from this facility on an annual basis.

Speaker 11

Perfect. I appreciate that. And secondly, if I may, Mark, I want to come back to the fibers discussion. I think it's interesting that you've got so much under contract through 2026. When we talk about a lot of the Output being under contract, can you speak to does that just mean the volume is committed?

Speaker 11

Or can you speak to the degree to which you've got visibility in to both pricing and cost. Just trying to get a sense for kind of the confidence intervals around the economics through 2026?

Speaker 2

Yes. So the commitments we have in 2025 and 2026 with the market is both on price and cost, covers both. Now there's ranges in the volume side, right? So they have a min and a max on volume, But the pricing formula, which in most cases include these prices will then adjust based on changes in energy and raw material. So it's sort of cost pass through if you will to some degree.

Speaker 2

These margins, if we get a tailwind, we'll share that with the customers. If costs go up, we'll raise our prices formulaically. But that is the nature of most of these contracts, not all, but most have some version of pricing and a lot of it includes the CPT. So no, that's but there's always a little bit of potential volume decline in the market that we have to accommodate with them. So that part has room for sort of changes in market demand.

Speaker 11

Got it. Thank you very much.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Laurence Alexander of Jefferies. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Speaker 12

Good morning. Can you on the renewable side, can you discuss how the policy Landscape is shifting, in terms of the potential incentives you may receive for this section and third plant compared to what you had initially Or broader policy shifts that might be incentivizing customers?

Speaker 2

Sure. So 2 different sets of topics there. On the incentives, the European Union and the governments within it have certain describe methodologies around how they do incentives and we are working to get the higher end of what's allowed in the European Union. We're in the middle of finalizing that. So I can't talk about it right now.

Speaker 2

But there are some improvements we expect to get as the inflationary environment has impacted the CapEx costs. So we feel good about where we're at on that. When it comes to U. S, the Inflation Reduction Act is out there, as I think we discussed in the Q3 call, We do have an application in to them. We have not yet been notified about whether or not we'll get that reward, and what the level of the award will be.

Speaker 2

We've asked for substantial amount of capital because it would support some very impressive environmental investments around the plant that allow that plant to be carbon neutral, which would be extremely attractive. There are 2 things customers want right now, 100% recycled content. They don't want anything less, because they want to have a bold claim, and they want to be carbon neutral or as close to that as possible. And so the second and third plants are Both capable of being carbon neutral, and they are obviously capable of delivering 100% recycled content. So there's a lot of interest and attraction to making sure these kind of plants get built.

Speaker 2

But It's a political process and I never want to guess politics until I know the incentives are, we'll just wait and see what they do. When it comes to the policy for the circular economy, the European policy in place that they're finalizing the rules on as we speak is very attractive for driving demand of the product. So it's a it requires in certain percentage targets for like beverages 25% by next year. And the industry only probably has half of the capacity mechanically to serve that. There's a lot of demand and market need in that space.

Speaker 2

And then all packaging needs to be 30% by recycled content. As I mentioned earlier, no one wants 25% or 30% every customer talking to wants 100%. So the demand is probably in excess of the regulatory requirements, But there's definitely requirements that will force people to start getting Resaca content. It also requires the content to be made from packaging place in the European market. So it allows that to be a regional circular business.

Speaker 2

So we're still waiting for all be finalized, but that's sort of where it's headed at this point as we understand it. The U. S. Is a patchwork, so every state's developing A different point of view around circular economy and how they wanted to play out. Half the country that is the more conservative country states are all Passing very sort of favorable search economy language.

Speaker 2

The other half, it's a patchwork. But so far everything we've seen, Our technology fits within the definitions of being a solution to the plastic waste crisis.

Speaker 12

And then just as you as we start looking towards 20252026, to what extent have you pulled forward Productivity that would make it more difficult to get sort of incremental productivity gains over the next few years?

Speaker 2

Are you talking about sort of total company on productivity? I'm sorry, I'm just not sure I understand Are you talking about just general productivity in the company or?

Speaker 12

Yes, the kind of structural productivity gains you've been delivering kind of fairly consistently. I guess my impression is that effort ramped up in the more recent period. And so I'm just curious if there have you pulled things forward or should we be thinking about there's another leg of structural productivity gains over the next couple of years? Just what's the next piece of that story?

Speaker 2

So I think what I'd say happened to us in every company is we had extraordinary inflation in 2021 2022 And we lost productivity through COVID and work at home and everything else that I think every company including us is working our way through. So We aggressively went after it last year where we got $200,000,000 of productivity above inflation to start addressing some of that sort of extraordinary inflation and get our cost structure where it should be. This year as you saw, we're just getting enough productivity to offset inflation. So $100,000,000 of productivity offsetting total inflation of labor and external spend. And so that's More normal is what I'd say.

Speaker 2

We have to have productivity every year, where we're offsetting inflation, so that We have the ability to invest in growth, deliver earnings growth and cash to the shareholders all at the same time. And so That's sort of where we're at. And so you should expect continued productivity, but it's more in the offsetting inflation category going forward than some big additional step up, right? The leverage for our company right now is volume recovery, especially in the specialties where the value per product is much higher than the company average. So you get volume, you get mixed lift, you get fixed cost leverage, which is how we've demonstrated a lot of success in our past and certainly the strategy we're going to be on this year and leveraging into next year with innovation.

Speaker 12

Thank you.

Speaker 1

Let's make the next question the last one, please. Alex?

Operator

My apologies. Thank you. Our final question for today comes from Salvator Tiano from Bank of America. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Speaker 6

Thank you. I just want to ask about the M and A landscape. What are you seeing here? And Now that it looks like things are finally improving, are you more incentivized to go out and look for specific targets? Yes, Salvador, this is Willie.

Speaker 6

What I would highlight is, I think we've shown that we're disciplined with our portfolio overall. As we think about priorities for bolt ons, which we're always looking for, those bolt ons would be within our Additives and Functional Products and Advanced Materials segment. But our key focus that we have right now is continuing to execute on our organic growth program. But to your point, there's probably better deal space coming as there's both recovery from

Speaker 2

a business

Speaker 6

standpoint and the rates environment is changing.

Speaker 8

Thank you very much.

Speaker 1

All right. Thank you everybody for joining us. I hope you have a great day.

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Earnings Conference Call
Eastman Chemical Q4 2023
00:00 / 00:00