FOX Q2 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Presentation

[Operator]

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Fox Corporation's Second Quarter Fiscal Year 2024 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session. I would like to emphasize the functionality for the question and answer session queue will be given at that time. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

I would now like to turn the conference over to Chief Investor Relations Officer, Ms. Gabrielle Brown. Please go ahead, Ms. Brown.

[Gabrielle Brown, Chief Investor Relations Officer at FOX]

Thank you, operator. Good morning and welcome to our fiscal 2024 second quarter earnings call. Joining me on the call today are Lachlan Murdoch, Executive Chair and Chief Executive Officer; John Nallen, Chief Operating Officer; and Steve Tomsic, our Chief Financial Officer. First, Lachlan and Steve will give some prepared remarks on the most recent quarter, and then we'll take questions from the investment community.

Please note that this call may include forward-looking statements regarding Fox Corporation's financial performance and operating results. These statements are based on management's current expectations and actual results could differ from what is stated as a result of certain factors identified on today's call and in the company's SEC filing. Additionally, this call will include certain non-GAAP financial measures, including adjusted EBITDA, or EBITDA as we refer to it on this call. Reconciliations of non-GAAP financial measures are included in our earnings release and our SEC filings, which are available in the Investor Relations section of our website.

And with that, I'm pleased to turn the call over to Lachlan.

[Lachlan K. Murdoch, Executive Chair and Chief Executive Officer at FOX]

Thank you, Gabby, and thank you, all, for joining us this morning. Against the backdrop of an active news cycle and another robust fall sports schedule, our fiscal second quarter again illustrated the strength of Fox. The growth we delivered in affiliate fee revenues was the standout this quarter, with the television segment growing by 10% and the cable segment returning to growth, once again demonstrating the power of our brands and our programming. We've now largely completed our fiscal '24 affiliate renewal cycle, having achieved our commercial goals without disruption and setting a solid foundation for renewals in fiscal 2025 and beyond.

As expected, advertising revenues in the quarter were down, primarily due to comparisons to last year's major cyclical events, including the midterm elections at the TV stations and the broadcast of the Men's World Cup in the cable and television segments. Parsing through the cyclical comparisons, our concentration in news and sports, coupled with the outstanding performance at Tubi, is clearly an advantage in a mixed advertising environment. More specifically, sports advertising was very healthy during the quarter, and we saw particularly strong demand for the NFL and College Football, which continued into the NFL playoffs.

At News, the second quarter was more nuanced. While preemptions and the direct response market adversely impacted quarterly growth, we sequentially narrowed the gap between the current and prior year in ratings and in pricing. We were also able to increase our viewing share over the previous quarter and the positive trends in share ratings and pricing have carried over into the current quarter.

Last week, I visited our bureau in Jerusalem, met with our talented and dedicated staff there, and saw firsthand the devastation wrought by Hamas on October 7. Our hearts, our thoughts, and our prayers go out to the victims of that day, the innocents killed in Israel and in Gaza, and the hostages still denied the embrace of their families and loved ones. The work our correspondents, our camera people, and our producers do reporting on these events is important, outstanding, and deeply appreciated.

Now on to Sports. In calendar 2023, 96 of the year's 100 most watched telecasts were live sports. Fox was responsible for 29 of the year's 100 most watched shows, more than any other network. This marks the fifth straight year that Fox has topped the industry in live sports viewing and demonstrates the unparalleled reach and engagement our content achieves. The 30th NFL regular season on Fox concluded with an average of 19 million viewers across all games, with America's Game of the Week averaging 25 million viewers, an eight-year high. And Fox NFL Sunday logged its 30th straight year as the number one NFL Pregame Show. That strength continued into the post-season, with Fox's three post-season windows delivering a best ever playoff average of almost 45 million viewers across the wild card, divisional, and championship games.

In Digital, we saw strong engagement at Tubi, which finished with a very impressive 62% growth in total view time and 17% growth in revenue. Tubi's library of over 240,000 movies and TV episodes, coupled with ubiquitous distribution, drove engagement, helping Tubi reach 78 million monthly active users, log almost 2.5 billion streaming hours in the quarter, and set a new monthly record of 855 million total viewing hours in December alone. Tubi has consolidated its position in the streaming landscape, ranking as the most watched free TV and movie streaming service in the United States, according to Nielsen, and surpassing Peacock, Max, Paramount+, and Pluto TV in view time for seven consecutive months.

At Fox Entertainment, the second quarter saw programming strength with Fox having the season's number one new broadcast entertainment series in Krapopolis, Hats off to Dan Harmon, the number one new game show debut in Snake Oil and the number one cooking series in Hell's Kitchen. We're also pleased with the very strong start of our mid-season lineup and the early success of We Are Family and The Floor.

Before I hand over to Steve, I'll comment on the sports platform we announced last night between Fox, Disney, and Warner Bros. Discovery. This new and unique digital distribution platform is focused on sports fans outside of existing pay TV offerings. Upon launch in the fall of 2024, the platform will offer a broad suite of sports, including those from a combined 14 linear networks that broadcast sports today. The inclusion of our networks in the platform is consistent with our strategy, being proudly consumer-first and distribution-agnostic. Across the distribution ecosystem, our traditional pay TV market will remain our dominant customer base for some time to come. As such, we remain committed to our existing distribution partners where our strong portfolio of leadership, sports, news, and entertainment brands thrive in their bundled offerings.

This unique new platform opens up a new market for us, one that we at Fox have not accessed before and that we're excited to participate in. As always, we are focused on delivering value for our shareholders in a thoughtful and disciplined manner, and we will continue to explore every opportunity to maximize that value over the long term.

Let me now turn it over to Steve for his comments on the quarter's financial results.

[Steve Tomsic, Chief Financial Officer at FOX]

Thanks, Lachlan, and good morning, everyone. With the vast majority of our fiscal 2024 affiliate renewals now successfully completed, Fox delivered 4% growth in total company affiliate fee revenues, led by 10% growth at television and a return to growth at cable. This growth reflects the must-have nature of our content and the value that our distribution partners place on it. Consistent with our expectations regarding event cycles, advertising revenues this quarter were impacted by the absence of the FIFA Men's World Cup at Fox Sports and midterm political revenues at the local television stations, along with lower advertising revenue at Fox News Media. Collectively, these factors contributed to a 20% decline in total company advertising revenues. Total company other revenues grew by 14%, driven by higher sports sublicensing revenues. All in, Fox reported total company revenues of $4.23 billion, down 8% from the prior year.

Total company expenses decreased 5% over the prior year, primarily due to the absence of the Men's World Cup at Fox Sports and fewer hours of original scripted programming at Fox Entertainment due to the strikes. However, this was partially offset by the first year step-up under our new NFL rights agreement. Quarterly adjusted EBITDA was $350 million as compared to the $531 million reported in the prior-year quarter. Net income attributed all to stockholders of $109 million, or $0.23 per share, compares to the $313 million, or $0.58 per share reported in the prior-year period, largely due to the EBITDA impact I just mentioned, along with the net changes in the fair value of the company's investments recognized in other net. Our effective tax rate for the quarter came in at 12%, reflecting a one-off remeasurement of our deferred tax assets as a result of changes in state tax laws. Excluding this impact on other non-core items, adjusted EPS was $0.34 per share versus last year's $0.48.

Turning to our segments, starting with cable, which reported 2% growth in total quarterly revenues. Cable affiliate fee revenues increased by $5 million with growth in pricing from our distribution renewals, outpacing the impact from industry subscriber declines running at approximately 8%. Cable other revenues increased $124 million, largely driven by higher sports sub-licensing revenues associated with our college sports and international soccer agreements. This growth in affiliate and other revenues was partially offset by a 23% decline in cable advertising revenues.

At Fox News Media, advertising revenues were impacted by a softer direct response marketplace, lower comparative ratings, and higher levels of preemptions due to our breaking news coverage of global events. Meanwhile, at the national sports networks, we measured against last year's broadcast of the Men's World Cup. Expenses at the cable segment were 14% lower than the prior year, with savings mainly gained from the absence of the Men's World Cup, as well as lower legal programming and production costs at Fox News Media. Taking all these factors into account, quarterly adjusted EBITDA at the cable segment grew 60% over the prior-year quarter.

Moving to our television segment, which reported total quarterly revenues of $2.54 billion, down 13% from the prior year. The TV segment reported strong 10% growth in affiliate fee revenues as price increases across all Fox affiliated stations more than offset the impact from industry subscriber declines. TV advertising revenues were down 19% as solid growth at Tubi was more than offset by comparisons with last year's cycle of major events, including the FIFA Men's World Cup and midterm political revenues, as well as the relative mix of World Series matchups and game counts. Also, at TV, revenue from our entertainment production companies was impacted by the SAG and WGA labor disputes. This contributed to a $64 million decline in TV other revenues, most of which was offset by a commensurate reduction in expenses. Overall expenses at the TV segment remained flat as higher costs under the NFL agreement and a modest increase in investment at Tubi were offset by lower costs from the absence of the Men's World Cup, lower college sports rights costs, and fewer hours of original scripted content due to the strikes. Together, these revenue and expense impacts led to a quarterly adjusted EBITDA loss of $138 million at our TV segment, compared to an EBITDA contribution of $256 million reported in the prior-year quarter.

Turning to free cash flow, where we recorded a deficit of $615 million this quarter. This is consistent with the normal seasonality of our working capital cycle, where the first half of our fiscal year reflects the concentration of payments for sports rights and the buildup of advertising-related receivables. In terms of capital allocation, fiscal year-to-date, we have repurchased an additional $550 million through our share buyback program, bringing the total cumulative amount repurchased to $5.15 billion, or 25% of our total shares outstanding since the launch of the program in 2019. In addition, today we announced a $0.26 per share semiannual dividend.

These capital return measures are supported by our robust balance sheet, where we ended the quarter with $4.1 billion in cash and $8.4 billion in debt. These balances are before taking into account the repayment of our $1.25 billion note in late January.

And with that, I'll turn the call back over to Gabby to open up the Q&A.

[Gabrielle Brown, Chief Investor Relations Officer at FOX]

Thank you, Steve. And now we would be happy to take questions from the investment community.

Questions and Answers

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions] One moment, please, for the first question. We have a question from Ben Swinburne with Morgan Stanley. Please, go ahead.

[Benjamin Swinburne, Analyst at Morgan Stanley]

Good morning. Lachlan, obviously, big news in the new sports joint venture, so I'd love to get your thoughts really around that product and opportunity in kind of two areas. First is, what is the opportunity that you guys see in the United States for a product like that? Obviously, we're all focused on the cord-cutter sort of TAM, but how many people do you think are interested in a product like this? And then do you see any risk to particularly Fox News? This is the first time you guys have offered a product with just Fox broadcast. So, how'd you balance that when you thought about putting this business together? Thanks so much.

[Lachlan K. Murdoch, Executive Chair and Chief Executive Officer at FOX]

Hey, thank you very much, Ben, and good morning. So, the opportunity is huge. And that's really because this sports-focused platform is focused entirely on not cord-cutters, but cord nevers. So, if you look at the American market, there's roughly, say, 125 million households in America, and roughly half of those are not within the traditional bundled cable ecosystem. And so, the target for this product, which is going to be, I think, incredibly innovative when you see it roll out, is really that universe of, call it, 60 million-odd households that currently don't participate in the bundled cable and pay television ecosystem.

So, we think it's a tremendous opportunity. We've been working on it for, I think it's been recorded this morning fairly accurately, for several months now. I've been lucky enough to have seen some of the prototypes for this service. And again, it will be unique and I think very innovative when you see it roll out.

In terms of the risks, and particularly for Fox News, I think the risks are very low. And that's because of the focus of the sports product being on the cord nevers. Fox News continues to be the top rating cable network. And our distributors, our partners, really value that channel and that brand as it really drives tremendous viewership and audience and engagement for them. And we think we'll continue to do so within the traditional cable and pay television bundle.

Thank you, Ben.

[Gabrielle Brown, Chief Investor Relations Officer at FOX]

Operator, next question, please.

[Operator]

We go to Robert Fishman with MoffettNathanson. Please, go ahead.

[Robert Fishman, Analyst at MoffettNathanson]

Good morning, everyone. Sticking with the sports news. So, we've long discussed with you the benefits of Fox to a sports-led skinny bundle. So, I'm just wondering, any additional background you can share on what pushed this deal forward now, including maybe any flexibility you built into your recent affiliacy renewals? And then on a related note, should we expect to see any changes in your approach to negotiate future sports rights and any comments you want to share about the Netflix-WWE deal that might impact these negotiations going forward. Thank you.

[Lachlan K. Murdoch, Executive Chair and Chief Executive Officer at FOX]

Well, let me start back to front, Robert. So, there's no impact on the Netflix-WWE deal at all. So, I don't think that plays a factor in this. And, in fact, in how we approach our portfolio of sports rights. We will be aggressively competing in the sports market for sports rights, but nothing has changed there. The primary business and value in Fox Sports is competing both for every subscriber in the traditional cable pay TV bundle and advertiser, viewer and ultimately, advertiser. So, sports remains a competitive business, which, we -- frankly, we thrive in and we don't see any difference to that.

What led to this now, I think we've answered many questions on these quarterly calls over many years about that when we are ready to launch a streaming service such as this, and we will do it, and we've been monitoring the space, obviously, for years, past few years in particular. And as we developed with our partners the concept around a very unique and innovative product, we felt now was the right time to launch such a product really into a new market, right? It's a new market where there's no product serving the sports fans that are not within the cable TV bundle.

So, it accesses -- for us, it accesses a whole new market and really drives a tremendous amount of new reach that we weren't servicing before.

[Gabrielle Brown, Chief Investor Relations Officer at FOX]

Operator, next question, please.

[Operator]

Next is John Hodulik with UBS. Please, go ahead.

[John Hodulik, Analyst at UBS Group]

Great. Thank you. First, just quickly, on the sports TV, just any cash contribution or can you size any cash contribution required for -- from Fox? And then turning to advertising, obviously, a number of things affecting the numbers this quarter. Do you guys have some positive color as we look into next quarter? Just any color. One, I'd say, on the TV side, what you're seeing at this point in terms of political. And then with the improvement in the ratings and the year-over-year, the gap that you're seeing closing, can we assume that the 23% on the cable ad side is sort of the worst number? And any color on the sort of slope of the improvement we should see as we head through the year? Thanks.

[Lachlan K. Murdoch, Executive Chair and Chief Executive Officer at FOX]

I've lost track. [Speech Overlap] Okay. So, cash contribution, advertising and cable advertising.

[John Hodulik, Analyst at UBS Group]

Cable advertising. You got it.

[Lachlan K. Murdoch, Executive Chair and Chief Executive Officer at FOX]

After this, we won't need any more questions. We'll cover the whole gamut. Thanks, John. On the cash side, I'll let Steve fill in, but it's -- obviously, this business has both a -- there's marketing and other costs associated with running the business in the partnership, but there's also the revenue that we garner through affiliate fees for our networks that come out as the business grows.

But I'll let Steve fill in the details.

[Steve Tomsic, Chief Financial Officer at FOX]

Yeah. So, John, I think it's a touch early for us to be giving some forecasts around sort of the contribution or deficit from the JV. But sort of, as we look at it, it'll be accretive to us from a net-net perspective when you take into account the affiliate fees that we'll collect as revenue versus whatever funding we need to make to the JV. We think from a net-net to Fox perspective, it'll be accretive pretty quickly.

[Lachlan K. Murdoch, Executive Chair and Chief Executive Officer at FOX]

And then on advertising, I think the advertising outlook is, as I mentioned with news, but you could apply this term to the overall market, it's sort of nuanced as we look at it. If I start with sports, we had a very solid regular NFL season from an advertising perspective. And I think a stronger NFL post-season, which we were very pleased by. But also that was a smaller revenue line, but we had a fantastic College Football season. Really, I think the story of this past autumn was really the strength of College Football and particularly as advertisers sort of founded and appreciated the quality of the audience watching College Football.

Coming up, if we look forward, obviously, we have the Daytona 500 and then the start of the regular Major League Baseball season in March. And there's a lot of positive momentum with advertisers with those.

Fox News, you have positive trends with DR pricing. Direct response pricing is still down, but as you start to lap the comparisons from last year, it's certainly improving quite a lot. We have an impact from preemptions with election, and unfortunately, with war coverage. So, the preemptions are affecting. And ratings are continuing to improve. So, we're happy with where we are at Fox News as all those trends are improving steadily.

Local stations is probably the most mixed, but you have a bad comparison, particularly in the current pacings with Super Bowl comps this time last year. It's probably about $50 million in Super Bowl revenue, just in the station group this time last year. So, the comparisons are quite tough as we go forward. But we remain confident that we'll see a record political cycle. This is slightly ameliorated, I think, in the current quarter with the lack of competitive primary competition. But we're already seeing business in the first half of next year start to flow in from a political perspective. And it's -- obviously, it's sort of national because our stations, we have large number of stations in key political markets like Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Wisconsin. So, we're very confident in a very strong political cycle once that really starts to flow.

And then finally with Tubi's TBTs continue to grow, I think at 62%, 63%. And obviously with the TBT growth the revenue is following. The revenue growth is slightly less or somewhat less than it was last year. But in the sort of streaming environment, we're very happy with its growth. So, that's -- on advertising, scattered pricing is all up above upfront pricing, so that's positive.

And then finally on the cable affiliate subscribers and fees, we are in an environment where I think we called out, it's roughly 8% cable erosion, and yet our cable affiliate fees have grown in this quarter. So, I think that really shows the strength of our brands and our programming in the cable universe. So, we're very pleased with them.

Thanks, John.

[Gabrielle Brown, Chief Investor Relations Officer at FOX]

Next question, please, operator.

[Operator]

It is from Jessica Reif Ehrlich with Bank of America Securities. Please, go ahead.

[Jessica Reif Ehrlich, Analyst at Bank of America Securities]

Thank you. Back to the sports platform. Lachlan, you seem really confident that it won't affect the pay TV bundle, which is -- I just want to get some color on that given that sports has been really the glue that's kept it together. So, why do you feel so confident that it will not impact that? And then what is the openness to add partners? And will this have a separate advertising organization? How will the ads work in your content?

[Lachlan K. Murdoch, Executive Chair and Chief Executive Officer at FOX]

So, hi, Jessica, by the way. So, the -- first on how it affects the overall pay TV bundle. Again, the key market, the market that we will be driving towards is the market that sits outside, the sports fan who sits currently outside of the traditional pay TV bundle today. And there's tens of millions of them. So, we are very confident that this is a large market and a large opportunity that we can address without undermining the traditional bundle. We -- obviously, we've been working on this for several months. We've done lots of sensitivity analysis, and we would not be launching this product if we thought it was going to significantly affect our pay TV affiliate partners. And that's very important to us. We remain, I think, the biggest supporters of the traditional pay TV bundle. We think is tremendous value in the pay TV bundle for the consumer who wants to get it all at an affordable price. The big bundle is still the best way to get that programming and those brands. So, we are confident that this product will be additive and will give us incremental subscribers and not affect significantly the traditional bundle.

In the openness to add partners, that's not something that we're considering at this stage. We think that the 14 linear networks that this service offers gives people a tremendous amount of content between ABC affiliates, Fox affiliates, ESPN, ESPN2, ESPN News, the SEC Network, Fox affiliates, Fox Sports 1 and 2, the Big Ten Network, TNT, TBS, it's a --- and others, it's a tremendous offering that covers the majority of the key sports in this country, NFL, NBA, WNBA, Major League Baseball, NHL, etc. College, obviously, NASCAR, and so on. So, we think it's an incredibly strong offering. And at this stage, we're not contemplating adding partners to it.

I think your third question, Jessica, was on advertising revenues. And so, advertising revenues will flow through this. So, the advertising that we have are -- on our linear networks will flow into this service and will just give us increased reach to market that hasn't seen those -- that advertiser engage with those clients before. So, we think it's a net positive.

Thank you, Jessica.

[Gabrielle Brown, Chief Investor Relations Officer at FOX]

Operator, we have time for one more question.

[Operator]

Very good. That will come from Michael Morris with Guggenheim. Please, go ahead.

[Michael Morris, Analyst at Guggenheim Partners]

Hi, good morning. Thank you, guys. So, I wanted to ask about two areas of strength in the quarter. The first one on the sports sub-licensing. Can you share a little more detail on what that was, how it impacted profitability, and how to think about whether or not that's a recurring revenue and profit source?

And then my second question is on the affiliate acceleration, which is great to see. We know that the rate of cord-cutting is going to be impactful on that number. It's very hard to predict. But on pricing alone and the precedent that you just set, should we look at this as the first quarter of a sustained stronger pricing dynamic? And how long do you think we should anticipate that you can continue to see this type of growth being fueled by those new contractual relationships? Thank you.

[Lachlan K. Murdoch, Executive Chair and Chief Executive Officer at FOX]

I thought it was unfair that Steve would get the easy question, and then you asked the second question. So, anyway, good morning, Michael. I'll let Steve address the sports sub-licensing first.

[Steve Tomsic, Chief Financial Officer at FOX]

Hey, Mike. So, our sports sub-licensing revenue we have in the cable segment. So, we have -- we earn sports sub-licensing income in relation to various sort of college sports properties and international soccer rights. Some of these rights come with some variable-based economics to them, which we saw in the quarter. I think you should see this as somewhat a one-off. It's not going to repeat like this going in future quarters, future years. And if you want to try and dimensionalize it, then the size of the increase in cable other revenues between this quarter and previous quarter last year is a pretty good guide to the net benefit to us from those sub-licensing arrangements.

[Lachlan K. Murdoch, Executive Chair and Chief Executive Officer at FOX]

So, on the affiliate revenue acceleration, I think if you look at them two and can we co-sustain that, we've now completed all of our distribution sort of renewals in this cycle that will affect the remainder of this fiscal year. So, there's no more renewals negotiated that will affect this fiscal year. And obviously, then we're rolling into renewals that will take effect after this fiscal.

If you look at the underlying rate of decline around 8%, and this goes back to a little bit of John's question, if we look at that 8%, actually in September and October, it was better than 8%, it was a little bit better. And then -- and this we believe was the impact of football and sports viewing in the fall. But then after October, sort of as you get into November and December, the rate returned, decline returned to the sort of baseline at 8%.

So, for the immediate future, we don't see that changing. There's some cyclicality within that. But I think the 8% is a number that we're sort of baking into our assumptions. With that, we believe as we've achieved in -- over the last year, where we've renewed over one-third of our distribution, we've been able to achieve rate increases that have made up for those declines. And that is because of the strength of our brands, the strength of our programming, and really where they sit having sort of a focused strategy on a key number of very core brands that are essential for their distributors and for their customers that will be able to maintain similar rates of change going forward.

Thanks, Mike.

[Gabrielle Brown, Chief Investor Relations Officer at FOX]

At this point, we are out of time, but if you have any further questions, please give me or Dan Carey a call.

Thank you, again, for joining today's call.

[Steve Tomsic, Chief Financial Officer at FOX]

Thank you.

[Lachlan K. Murdoch, Executive Chair and Chief Executive Officer at FOX]

Thanks, everyone. Have a good day.

[Operator]

[Operator Closing Remarks]

Participants

Corporate Executives

• Gabrielle Brown, Chief Investor Relations Officer
• Lachlan K. Murdoch, Executive Chair and Chief Executive Officer
• Steve Tomsic, Chief Financial Officer

Analysts

• Benjamin Swinburne, Morgan Stanley
• Robert Fishman, MoffettNathanson
• John Hodulik, UBS Group AG
• Jessica Reif Ehrlich, Bank of America Securities
• Michael Morris, Guggenheim Partners