Ramon Laguarta
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer at PepsiCo
That's great, Dara. So I think it's an important area to focus. When we're saying at least four, we were talking more about around five in our minds. Now we're talking around four, so that's the pivot we're making. There is an adjustment and it is related to specifically the consumer in the U.S., and we can talk a little more.
Now why do we feel good about our guidance? And it cannot be disconnected from our earnings performance because I think the work we've been doing on our productivity and our cost reduction gives us the optionality to reinvest back and have to in a way that we feel much more comfortable about the performance. So a couple of I would say elements that give us confidence.
Now, one is Quaker. Quaker, you're all familiar with the situation. We're recovering the supply chain by Q4, will be in almost 100% supply and obviously the business at that point will be growing materially because we're just refilling the shelves and pipeline. So that should be out of the picture and it will be a positive impact for us.
The second is mathematical, but it's lapping, and we think, obviously, the laps are much better in second half, and that has a -- gives us confidence that we can get back to a mid single-digit type of growth in the second half.
The third element is international. International is an area we've been investing for the last few years materially, and is delivering for us. So first half of the year 7%, within that -- we will continue that same level of growth in the second half of the year, pluses on minuses around the world. But the portfolio is diverse enough, scale enough, profitable enough around multiple parts of the world that we believe that we can deliver.
And then now in the U.S. there is clearly a consumer that is more challenged, and is a consumer that is telling us that in particular parts of the portfolio -- of our portfolio, they want more value to stay with our brands. That is not for all the consumers, is some consumers, that is not for not all portfolio, it is some parts of the portfolio, and we have been working different tactics to give the consumer what they want, and we see that it's working, and that's why we feel comfortable about -- given the oxygen that we have in the P&L that we'll be able to deploy in a very targeted way, thinking long-term about the category, making sure that has -- it has good ROI, that we'll be able to turn around the -- especially what you were referring the food business to positive volume, and with that, a higher, higher level of net revenue. So that's how we're thinking about the second half. Again, we have green charts with some of the activities we've been executing. And July 4th has been very strong for us, and we feel good about the business.
Now, the North America beverage business is also to be highlighted. It's a business that we said over time we want to stay with -- deliver profitable growth, make sure we compete well in the category, but at the same time improve our margins. We think we're executing the playbook well. Actually, we've been accelerating the profitable growth delivery of the business, and that it should continue in the second half. We're investing in advertising our markets even more, in the platforms that are growing, and that's what overall you put it all together, we feel good about the second half of the year and the momentum that we will start '25 with that.