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Atmos Energy Q3 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Corporate Executives

  • Daniel M. Meziere
    Vice President of Investor Relations and Treasurer
  • Christopher T. Forsythe
    Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
  • Kevin Akers
    President and Chief Executive Officer

Analysts

Operator

Thank you for standing-by. My name is Krista, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Atmos Energy Corporation Fiscal 2024 Third Quarter Earnings Conference Call. All lines have been placed on-mute to prevent any background noise. And after the speakers' remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Thank you.

I would now like to turn the conference over to Dan Meziere, Vice President of Investor Relations and Treasurer. Dan, you may begin.

Daniel M. Meziere
Vice President of Investor Relations and Treasurer at Atmos Energy

Great. Thank you, Krista. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our fiscal 2024 third quarter earnings call. With me today are Kevin Akers, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Chris Forsythe, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Our earnings release and conference call slide presentation, which we will reference in our prepared remarks, are available at atmosenergy.com under the Investor Relations tab.

As we review these financial results and discuss future expectations, please keep in mind that some of our discussion might contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Securities Act and the Securities Exchange Act. Our forward-looking statements and projections could differ materially from actual results. The factors that could cause such material differences are outlined on slide 32 and are more fully described in our SEC filings.

With that, I will turn the call over to Chris Forsythe, our Senior Vice President and CFO. Chris?

Christopher T. Forsythe
Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer at Atmos Energy

Thank you, Dan, and good morning, everyone. We appreciate you joining us and your interest in Atmos Energy. Yesterday, we announced fiscal year-to-date diluted earnings per share of $6.00 compared to $5.33 per diluted share in the prior year period. Our third quarter and fiscal year-to-date results continue to be driven by two themes, regulatory outcomes reflecting increased safety and reliability spending and customer growth. Additionally, strong through-system revenues of APT, particularly during the third fiscal quarter contributed to our performance.

Regulatory outcomes in both of our segments increased operating income by $238 million and residential customer growth and rising industrial load in our distribution segment increased operating income by an additional $18 million. Revenues in our Pipeline & Storage segment increased $19 million period-over-period, $11 million of this amount [Indecipherable] mechanism was realized during our third fiscal quarter. Several of the pipelines coming out of Permian experienced planned and unplanned maintenance. This reduction in takeaway capacity, coupled with robust associated natural gas production, widened spreads between the Waha Header on the western end of APT system and delivered points in the Eastern and southern ends of the system. We expect spreads to remain elevated through the end of our fiscal year.

Excluding the $14 million one-time bad debt adjust -- bad debt adjustment we reported in Mississippi in the first quarter, consolidated O&M increased a net $16 million or about 3%. This increase is primarily due to higher import related costs, insurance premiums, IT software and maintenance costs, partially offset by a $15 million decrease in O&M in our Pipeline & Storage segment, primarily due to the timing of in line inspection work. As expected, O&M in the third fiscal quarter trended higher than the prior year quarter, and we anticipate O&M spending in the fourth fiscal quarter to trend higher as well as we continue to focus our spending on compliance, maintenance and system monitoring. We still expect fiscal '24 O&M to be in the range of $800 million to $820 million.

Consolidated capital spending increased to $2.1 billion, with 80% plus dedicated to improving the safety and reliability of our system. Spending in our distribution segment has increased due to higher safety and reliability spending and higher spending to support customer growth. Spending in our pipeline and storage segment is lower than the prior year due to timing. We remain on-track to spend approximately $3.1 billion this fiscal year.

Since the end of our second fiscal quarter, we implemented about $213 million in annualized regulatory outcomes, including all of this year's Texas GRIP filings and our annual filings with the City of Dallas, Louisiana and Tennessee. Year-to-date, we have completed $380 million in annualized regulatory outcomes. Currently, we have an additional $182 million in annualized outcomes in progress. Additionally, we made our first filing under APT's new System Safety and Integrity mechanism seeking a $19 million increase in revenues. This new mechanism was approved in APT's last year rate case as a floating mechanism for costs incurred to address new federal and safety-related regulations, meaning we will recognize the revenue and related O&M cost after reviewing approval by the Texas Federal Commission, resulting in no impact to operating income.

Our financial position continues to remain strong. We finished our third fiscal quarter with an equity capitalization of 61% and approximately $4.3 billion in liquidity. This amount includes $551 million of net proceeds available under existing forward sale agreements that will fully satisfy our anticipated fiscal '24 equity needs and most are anticipated fiscal '25 needs. In June, we completed a $325 million senior unsecured debt offering, tapping our existing 10-year 5.9% senior notes. As a result, our overall weighted average cost of debt as of June 30 stands at 4.1% and our debt profile remains very manageable with the weighted average maturity of approximately 17 years.

As we head into the fourth quarter of the fiscal year, we now believe our fiscal '24 earnings per share guidance will be at the higher end of our reaffirmed earnings per share guidance range of $6.70 to $6.80. Our anticipated financing plan for fiscal '24 is complete. All regulatory outcomes that can impact fiscal '24 have been implemented. As I mentioned ago, we anticipate spreads for APT's through-system business will remain elevated, which remain -- which will modestly contribute to our Q4 results and we have a reasonably clear line of sight into the system compliance, maintenance and monitoring we were performing in the fourth quarter. As a reminder, our guidance range includes two items totaling $0.17, that will exclude when we initiate our fiscal '25 guidance in November. The first item is the Texas property tax benefit that we've been discussing all fiscal year, which would favorably impact fiscal '24 results by $0.10. Additionally, the one-time Mississippi bad debt adjustment represented $0.7. We continue to anticipate 6% to 8% earnings per share growth from this adjusted EPS amount through fiscal '28.

Thank you for your time today. And I will turn the call over to Kevin for his update and some closing remarks. Kevin?

Kevin Akers
President and Chief Executive Officer at Atmos Energy

Thank you, Chris. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. We continue to benefit from solid economic growth in our service territory. For the 12 months ended June 30th, we added 57,000 new customers with nearly 45,000 of those new customers located in Texas. The Texas Workforce Commission reported in July that the seasonally adjusted number of employees reached 14.2 million. Texas again added jobs at a faster rate than the nation over the last 12 months ending June, adding over 267,000 jobs, representing a 1.9% annual growth rate.

Industrial demand for natural gas in our service territories also remained strong. During the third quarter, we added 10 new industrial customers with an anticipated annual load of approximately 2 Bcf once they are fully operational. Fiscal year-to-date, we have added 32 new industrial customers with an anticipated annual load of approximately 6 Bcf once they are fully operational. On a volumetric basis, the 6 Bcf of anticipated industrial load is equal to adding approximately 110,000 residential customers. And during the first nine months of the fiscal year, our customer support agents and customer advocacy teams continued their outreach efforts to energy assistance agency and customers, helping over 47,000 customers receive nearly $19 million in funding assistance.

Our consistent performance reflects the vital role we play in every community, safely delivering reliable and efficient natural gas to homes, businesses and industries to fuel our energy needs now and in the future.

We appreciate your time this morning, and we will now open the call to questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Fei She [Phonetic] with Barclays. Please go ahead.

Fei She
Analyst at Barclays

Hi. Good morning, team. Thanks for taking my questions. I just want to first quickly touch on financing. Could you just further discuss the equity needs for '25? And definitely given '25 largely done with forward instruments and the recent renewal on ATM, just how does that better facilitate the equity needs in 2025? Thanks.

Christopher T. Forsythe
Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer at Atmos Energy

Yeah. Well, this is Chris, and good morning and thanks for joining us. We typically issue between $600 million and $800 million a year in equity through the ATM program that we have. And as I mentioned a few minutes ago, we have $551 million priced at the end of June, of which that amount will basically mostly satisfy our fiscal 2025 needs. So, I think that -- hopefully that will give you enough color to update your models.

Fei She
Analyst at Barclays

That's great. That's great. Thanks for the color. It's very helpful. Maybe just quickly turning to O&M execution for '25. You raised the midpoint guidance by $20 million last quarter, and I guess, things are on track for this year. Could you talk about going forward what are some of the key items you're focusing on O&M execution? And how are you benchmarking with the 3.5% annual increased guidance? Thanks.

Kevin Akers
President and Chief Executive Officer at Atmos Energy

Yeah, this is Kevin. Good morning, glad to have you join us today. Again, we're working through the remainder of fiscal '24 right now and anticipate it will be the same items as we move into '25. And we'll have additional detail and color as we get to our November call on '25. But, again, the drivers around O&M continue to be hydrostatic testing, line locating, integrity regulations, markable placement on difficult or hard to locate lines, those sort of things and then looking for opportunities as we move forward to enhance those or pull things forward when we have the ability to do that. So, again, the same items that we're focused on this year we anticipate seeing again in '25.

Christopher T. Forsythe
Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer at Atmos Energy

Yeah. And I'll add to that too is that as I said at the end of my prepared remarks, we're still anticipating 6% to 8% EPS growth off of the adjusted EPS amount for fiscal '24. So, that's the overall theme to take away from. We'll have some puts and takes on the O&M as Kevin mentioned, but we're still guiding to that 6% to 8% growth target.

Fei She
Analyst at Barclays

Great. That's very helpful. Thanks for the color, so I'll leave it there.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Richard Sunderland with J.P. Morgan. Please go ahead.

Richard Sunderland
Analyst at J.P. Morgan

Hi, good morning. Thank you for the time today.

Christopher T. Forsythe
Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer at Atmos Energy

Good morning.

Kevin Akers
President and Chief Executive Officer at Atmos Energy

Good morning.

Richard Sunderland
Analyst at J.P. Morgan

Looking at '24 results, you've called out the $0.17 of one-offs. I'm curious, how we should think about the rest of the business into '25? Does everything else continue into '25 other than APT spread benefit, meaning take the $680 [Phonetic] top end, less $0.17 and maybe back out another roughly $0.10 for the spread pickup?

Kevin Akers
President and Chief Executive Officer at Atmos Energy

Yeah. I think you're on target there, Richard, backing out the $0.17 off of whatever you want to assume for the outcome for fiscal '24. APT, we will have some spread activity next year, but we just can't predict it. And so, I wouldn't necessarily discount too far off of what you -- the two one-time items when you're starting your 7% or 8% or 9%, whatever you want to do on the growth target for fiscal 2025 because we will have some activity. It's just this time -- this year, particularly in the third quarter, we saw some elevated spreads. And then as you commented, expected to revert back to the mean, which means we'll still have some activity there.

Richard Sunderland
Analyst at J.P. Morgan

Okay, great. That's really helpful. And, I guess, one quick follow up on that spread opportunity. I know you referenced in the script kind of a continuation into 4Q. Is that already contemplated in the higher end guidance language or is that potential upside depending on how that materializes?

Kevin Akers
President and Chief Executive Officer at Atmos Energy

No, that's all contemplated in the guidance that we've updated here this morning.

Richard Sunderland
Analyst at J.P. Morgan

Great. Very clear and very helpful. Thank you for the time.

Kevin Akers
President and Chief Executive Officer at Atmos Energy

Thank you.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your next question comes from the line of Ryan Levine with Citi. Please go ahead.

Ryan Levine
Analyst at Citigroup Investment Research

Good morning.

Christopher T. Forsythe
Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer at Atmos Energy

Good morning.

Ryan Levine
Analyst at Citigroup Investment Research

To follow up on -- hey, everybody. To follow up on the APT spread dynamics, what are you assuming for the Matterhorn in service date with the current '24 guidance and are you assuming that the spread remains right for the remaining portion of your fiscal year?

Kevin Akers
President and Chief Executive Officer at Atmos Energy

Yeah, as Chris said again, we don't anticipate any further maintenance this year on the upstream segments of APT there that would impact the spreads right now. They've mitigated from the highs we've seen over the last quarter somewhat. And, look, going forward, definitely Matterhorn will be coming on. I think if you read some of the documentation from the upstream folks, sometime in September, October, early fall, that will be coming on. We'll just have to watch and see what that does for the dynamics out there. And then as we normally get into the [Indecipherable] in winter period, demand will drive it further from there on the spread impact. But, again, I always like to remind here, while APT exists and that's to serve the customers behind it, the LDCs behind it. And then when we have opportunity, we'll move that gas across our system. So, right now, again, we don't anticipate any further maintenance upstream that would impact the spreads any further than what we're currently seeing today at this point.

Ryan Levine
Analyst at Citigroup Investment Research

Okay. And then a follow up on that, given the strong performance this fiscal year on APT, does that have any implications for resetting the bar on which you get the sharing mechanism in future time periods?

Kevin Akers
President and Chief Executive Officer at Atmos Energy

No, that's set in the rate case itself on a go forward. So, the next time that will potentially be looked at would be in the next five [Speech Overlap]

Christopher T. Forsythe
Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer at Atmos Energy

About five years.

Kevin Akers
President and Chief Executive Officer at Atmos Energy

About five years in the next required filing.

Christopher T. Forsythe
Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer at Atmos Energy

Yeah. So, as a reminder, that bar was set at $106.9 million. And -- so that's the benchmark we have to achieve to begin sharing over and above that amount. And, of course, it works the other way too if we fall short, but $106.9 million is the target we're looking at.

Ryan Levine
Analyst at Citigroup Investment Research

Okay. And then last question from me. To the extent that there is new gas generation or infrastructure built in your service territory, do you see any opportunities on the LDC side to maybe build some infrastructure to support the movement of gas associated with some of the gas generation that may be coming?

Kevin Akers
President and Chief Executive Officer at Atmos Energy

Yeah, as we talked about on previous calls, there's always that opportunity out there. But let's remember, the power generators that we currently have behind APT system, we're one of several suppliers to them, so they can move or flex between suppliers at their will out there. So, we wouldn't be a sole supplier. And we'll just continue to keep an eye on that over the next few years and see how that develops. But, again, we would be one of several suppliers or inputs into those facilities.

Ryan Levine
Analyst at Citigroup Investment Research

Thank you for the time.

Kevin Akers
President and Chief Executive Officer at Atmos Energy

Thank you.

Operator

And that concludes our question-and-answer session. And I will now turn the conference back over to Dan for closing remarks.

Daniel M. Meziere
Vice President of Investor Relations and Treasurer at Atmos Energy

Thanks. We appreciate your interest in Atmos Energy and thank you again for joining us today. A reminder, a recording of this call is available for replay on our website. Have a great day.

Operator

[Operator Closing Remarks]

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