Archer-Daniels-Midland Q2 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
July 30, 2024

There are 11 speakers on the call.

Operator

Good morning, and welcome to the ADM Second Quarter 20 24 Earnings Conference Call. All lines have been placed on listen only mode to prevent any background noise. As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded. Now like to introduce your host for today's call, Megan Britt, Vice President, Investor Relations for ADM. Ms.

Operator

Britt, you may begin.

Speaker 1

Thank you, Elliot. Hello, and welcome to the Q2 earnings webcast for ADM. Starting tomorrow, a replay of this webcast will be available on our Investor Relations website. Please turn to slide 2. Some of our comments and materials may constitute forward looking statements that reflect management's current views and estimates of future economic circumstances, industry conditions, company performance and financial results.

Speaker 1

These statements and materials are based on many assumptions and factors that are subject to risks and uncertainties. ADM has provided additional information in its reports on file with the SEC concerning assumptions and factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in this presentation. To the extent permitted under applicable law, ADM assumes no obligation to update any forward looking statements as a result of new information or future events. On today's webcast, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Juan Luciano, will discuss our Q3 results and share recent accomplishments on our strategic priorities. Our Chief Financial Officer, Ishmael Roig, will review segment level performance and provide an update on our cash generation and capital allocation actions.

Speaker 1

Juan will have some closing remarks and then he and Ishmael will take your questions. Please turn to Slide 4. I'll now turn the call over to Juan.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Megan, and good morning to all who have joined for today's call. Today, ADN reported 2nd quarter adjusted earnings per share of 1 point 0 $3 with an adjusted segment operating

Speaker 3

profit of

Speaker 2

$1,000,000,000 Our trailing 4 quarter average adjusted ROIC was 9.7%. We delivered strong cash flow from operations before working capital at $1,700,000,000 Year to date, this equates to an adjusted earnings per share of $2.49 and an adjusted segment operating profit of $2,300,000,000 Our team delivered solid results in challenging market conditions, highlighting the efforts of our teams across the business to manage through the commodity down cycle while putting our nutrition business on a path to recovery. Additionally, we saw signs of improving fundamentals within crush and ethanol later in the quarter positioning us for a strong second half. We're also flexing our capital allocation strategy to return cash to shareholders completing our planned share repurchases for the quarter and delivering our 370th consecutive quarterly dividend. Next slide please.

Speaker 2

Let's start by reviewing the top line results of our business units alongside our efforts to manage the cycle through productivity and innovation. Ag Services and Oilseed results are significantly lower than the record results of prior years due to the ongoing rebalancing of the supply and demand environment and overall lower farmer selling. In anticipation of this year's challenges, we focus on driving stronger production volumes and actively leveraging our footprint to match supply to demand around the globe. We've also focused on differentiation opportunities, extending margin and growing volumes by more than 20% year over year in areas like destination marketing, achieving our targeted run rate in our Green Bison JV for renewable green diesel feedstocks and bringing new solutions to our customers through innovations such as our recent EUDR compliant fully traceable soybean program and the expansion of our regenerative agriculture partnerships and acreage. These REGEN AG programs highlight our leadership in this space.

Speaker 2

ABM was named the finalist in Fast Company's World Changing Ideas in May And just last week, we released our 2nd annual REGENAG report detailing the data backed results we are achieving across our global operations. Carbohydrate Solutions has continued a solid performance trajectory driven by strong margins for sweeteners, starches and flour with higher volumes year over year. Ethanol margins also strengthened as industry production tried to keep pace with robust export and domestic demand. Along with this performance, we are continuing to drive innovation based growth through the sustainability centered evolution of the business. We have delivered 7% year to date volume expansion across our Biosolutions platform, increased start capacity in our Marshall, Minnesota facility to meet growing demand from food, beverage and industrial customers and in a milestone for our strategic partnership, Solugen recently broke ground on a 500,000 square foot biomanufacturing facility that will use ABM sourced dextrose for applications in water treatment, agriculture, energy and home and personal care.

Speaker 2

Within our productivity agenda, the drive for execution excellence is continuing to deliver simplification and cost saving opportunities across the enterprise. In Q2, we advanced 100 of projects that put us clearly on the path to the plan $500,000,000 in cost reduction over the next 2 years. We're accelerating these efforts and expect to see a significant portion of these savings by the end of 2024. Our focus on returning nutrition to its growth trajectory is also taking hold and we are seeing sequential top line improvement as compared to our previous two quarters. While we are experiencing some downward pressure with texturants and protein demand, we drove strong growth in health and wellness sales along with flavor sales growth and excellent contributions from our recent acquisitions.

Speaker 2

In our targeted areas of focus, we are continuing to make progress. We continue to improve demand fulfillment for flavors in our EMEA region following the implementation of 1 AGM. We're optimizing cost across the animal nutrition portfolio building the foundation to drive continued sequential improvement across the core of the segment. The use of our refined M and A playbook with our recent flavor acquisitions has proven to be an important accelerator to integration and the ongoing growth of our leading global flavors business. And our innovation agenda is paying off, driving human nutrition revenues up 6% year to date driven by flavors and our science backed health and wellness portfolio.

Speaker 2

Our capital allocation efforts continued through the Q2 as we completed our planned share repurchases and announced our most recent dividend. We have already returned $2,800,000,000 of capital to shareholders to date. The Q2 marked an important point in our efforts to manage through the market realities of 2024 and deliver on our priorities. Across all three businesses, we are evolving to drive new pockets of growth in the near term while positioning ADM to take full advantage of macro trends of sustainability, health and well-being and food security in the longer term. As we continue to drive operational excellence and make progress on our key priorities, we have confidence in our full year expectations despite uncertainties in the external environment.

Speaker 2

Before I hand over to Ishmael for a detailed review of our second quarter results, I would like to first thank him for his leadership and guidance as interim CFO through the first half of the year. It's a hallmark of ADM leaders to step up when our organization asks for their support. And Ishmael has shown that his experience, passion and knowledge of our business set him apart as one of our best. We're excited to be welcoming Monish Patolawala to ADM as our new CFO in August. I know Ishmael has important work to do as he returns to lead EMEA and Animal Nutrition's continued growth.

Speaker 2

Ishmael, over to you.

Speaker 4

Thank you, Juan. Let me begin by sharing my own thanks and congratulations for what our finance team accomplished over the 1st 6 months of this year. As a 20 plus year employee of the company, I have seen amazing things our colleagues can accomplish when we work collectively to achieve them. And this was again the reality as I stepped in as Interim CFO. I'm proud to have served the company in this capacity over the last several months and I'm excited to welcome and support Manish as he joins the team.

Speaker 4

For the Q2 ended June 30, 2024, earnings per share on a GAAP basis were $0.98 Segment operating profit on a GAAP basis was $1,000,000,000 and included charges of $7,000,000 or approximately $0.01 per share related to impairments. Adjusted segment operating profit was $1,000,000,000 for the 2nd quarter, a 37% decrease versus the prior year period. Adjusted earnings per share were $1.03 Lower pricing and execution margins led to a decline of $1.03 per share versus the prior year period, largely reflecting the impact of lower crush and origination margins. Volume improvement represented a $0.19 per share increase versus the prior year period, primarily reflecting higher volumes in AS and O and carbohydrate solutions. Higher costs of $0.07 per share were primarily related to $0.06 per share of unplanned downtime at Decatur East.

Speaker 4

Share repurchases represented a $0.10 per share increase versus the prior year. During the quarter, there was approximately a CAD0.02 per share negative impact from mark to market timing in the AS and O segment. Please turn to Slide 7. For the Q2, the Ag Services and Oilseeds team delivered $459,000,000 in operating profit, reflecting on a challenging operating environment compared to the prior year. On a year over year basis, mark to market timing for the segment was relatively muted.

Speaker 4

As Juan mentioned, strong supplies out of South America led to a rebalancing of the supply and demand environment, while also shifting export market competitiveness from North America to South America. These ample supplies have also pressured commodity prices compared to the past 2 years, resulting in slower than expected farmer selling relative to last year and the 5 year averages. From the demand side, inclusion rates for meal continue to be robust, supporting domestic and export demand. Oil values were pressured during the quarter as imports of used cooking oil as a feedstock for renewable diesel continued to grow. Ag Services results were lower than the prior year, primarily driven by lower results in South American origination as lower farmer selling due to a smaller than expected crop in Mato Grosso and higher logistic costs related to industry take or pay contracts led to lower margins.

Speaker 4

North America originations saw lower volumes and margins as strong crop yields out of both Brazil and Argentina led to a shift in export competitiveness to South America as well as limited carries and trading opportunities. As we began the quarter, global demand for both meal and oil remained strong. However, the return of Argentinian crush combined with the increased imports of used cooking oil also weighed on crush margins. As we progressed later in the quarter, slower farmer selling in Argentina brought tighter S and D dynamics, driving an improvement in board crush. The team performed well in this environment, leading to an executed soy crush margin of approximately $45 per metric ton for the quarter.

Speaker 4

While fundamentals supported improving crush margins as we expected, the more balanced S and D environment led to lower margins versus the prior year, translating to lower results. During the quarter, there were approximately $15,000,000 of negative timing impacts versus negative timing impacts of approximately $195,000,000 in the comparable period. In Refined Products and Other, results were lowered due primarily to the reversal of prior positive mark to market timing impacts. In North America, increased pretreatment capacity at renewable diesel plants and higher imports of used cooking oil caused refining margins to ease relative to the record levels of last year. The biodiesel margin structure has also come off of record levels versus the prior year as a result of lower LCFS credits and RIN values.

Speaker 4

During the quarter, there were approximately 90,000,000 dollars of negative timing impacts versus positive timing impacts of approximately $90,000,000 in the comparable period. Equity earnings from Wilmar of $16,000,000 were lower compared to the prior year quarter. Moving to Slide 8. The Carbohydrates Solutions team executed well, delivering CAD357 1,000,000 in operating profit for the 2nd quarter, which was higher versus the prior year. Industry fundamentals in the starches and sweetener space continue to be supported by strong sweetener demand and an improving starch market.

Speaker 4

Within ethanol, markets became more constructive as we advanced later in the quarter and stocks moved lower firming up both domestic and export margins. Demand for ethanol remained robust supported by summer driving season in the U. S, solid domestic blending rates and export demand. The starches and sweeteners sub segment results were higher year over year as strong margins and volumes in North America were partially offset by lower margins in the EMEA region as they came off historically high levels. And our operational excellence efforts have helped streamline our processes and overall efficiencies leading to improved cost positions.

Speaker 4

In the Vantage corn processing sub segment, strong export demand for ethanol supported solid ethanol margins leading to higher year over year results. Moving to Slide 9. Nutrition revenues were $1,900,000,000 for the 2nd quarter, up 3% on a year over year basis and sequentially improved from the Q1. Our human nutrition sub segment grew 10% year over year as strong M and A revenue contributions as well as improved volumes and mix in flavors combined with strong growth in our Health and Wellness business more than offset headwinds from lower pricing in the texturants market and lower plant based protein demand. Our animal nutrition sub segment had lower revenues versus the prior year as lower pricing and mix was partially offset by improved volumes in the base business.

Speaker 4

Please turn to slide 10. The 2nd quarter marked another quarter of progress with sequential improvement in operating profit for the Nutrition business. When comparing to the prior year quarter, human nutrition results were lower, primarily driven by unplanned downtime at Decatur East and lower texturance pricing in the Specialty Ingredients business. Within Flavors, we have continued to improve operations, which has led to higher shipments sequentially. In Animal Nutrition, results were higher versus the prior year as improved execution in the base business has led to higher volumes and cost optimization actions and lower commodity prices helped support margins, partially offset by lower Pet Solutions performance in North America and Brazil.

Speaker 4

Turning to Slide 11. For the Q2, other segment operating profit was $96,000,000 up 12% compared to the prior year period, supported by higher captive insurance results due to lower claim activity. ADM Investor Services results decreased on lower interest income. In corporate for the Q2, unallocated corporate costs increased on higher global technology investments to support digital transformation efforts, increased legal fees and increased securitization fees. Turning to our balance sheet and cash flows on slide 12.

Speaker 4

Through the Q2, the company has continued to generate healthy cash flows with $1,700,000,000 of operating cash flow before working capital. Our current leverage ratio is now within our targeted range, reflecting our disciplined approach to balance sheet management and robust cash flow generation. With robust financial flexibility, we have been able to support both strategic initiatives to support long term growth and also leverage excess cash for enhanced shareholder returns. During the quarter, we repurchased over 16,000,000 shares through our open market repurchase program, returning approximately $1,000,000,000 of capital, thus making the completion of our targeted $2,300,000,000 of share repurchases for the year. In total, we have returned $2,800,000,000 of capital to shareholders through repurchases and dividends so far in 2024.

Speaker 4

We also continue to invest in the business with an enhanced focus on the reliability of our asset performance allocating $700,000,000 to capital expenditures. Now breaking down our expectations for the Q3 by segment on Slide 13. In AS and O, we anticipate the Q3 to be lower versus the prior year, but improved from the cyclical low margin environment from the Q2. We anticipate demand for both meal and oil to remain robust and support crush margins, however, likely lower than the levels in the prior year. We anticipate improved process volumes in the Q3 as we enhance our focus on operational excellence across our network and as our Green Bison JV achieves full run rates.

Speaker 4

It is also important to note, the prior year period also included a $48,000,000 insurance recovery related to damages from Hurricane Ida. In Carbohydrate Solutions, we anticipate a strong Q3, but lower than the prior year as wheat milling margins moderate off elevated levels. Network optimization and operational excellence will continue to support strong earnings in the second half. We anticipate solid demand for ethanol both domestically and in the export markets and upside opportunities could be presented if fundamentals hold. In nutrition, we expect the Q3 to be higher than the prior year period.

Speaker 4

The team is systematically optimizing the organizational and operational structure across both human and animal nutrition, which are expected to continue to yield cost benefits throughout the year. Coupling this with our efforts to convert pipeline opportunities and drive improved volumes, we anticipate to see continued sequential improvement in the Nutrition business throughout the year. Turning to slide 14 to discuss our full year guidance assumptions. We anticipated increased crop production in South America would lead to lower margins across the AS and O segment in 2024 and the global soybean crush margins would likely be in the range of $35 per metric ton to $60 per metric ton for the year, with performance around the midpoint determined by the strength of soybean meal and oil demand. Though the larger crop production in South America did materialize, we experienced slower than average farmers selling in that region as well as fewer merchandising opportunities in North America through the first half, which weighed negatively on margins in Ag Services.

Speaker 4

We expect these dynamics to continue to pressure margins in our Q3. On soybean crush margins, we continue to see robust soybean meal demand based on solid livestock margins and some supply tightness among competing feedstuffs. From the soybean oil side, we expect that as renewable diesel production continues to grow in the second half, the demand for vegetable oil will remain well supported. And with the prospects of a large crop in North America, we perceive increased opportunities for our interior elevator network and processing plants within oilseeds and carbohydrate solutions in the second half. Taking this all together, our expected crush margin remains unchanged from $35 per metric ton to $60 per metric ton with recent fundamentals supporting margins above the midpoint.

Speaker 4

With the first half results largely in line and balancing an improving crush environment with less opportunities in merchandising in the second half, our 2024 earnings per share range remains unchanged. Looking at the other metrics included in our total consolidated guidance, our full year 2024 indications remain unchanged. Back to you Juan.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Ishmael. As we think about the rest of 2024 and the lead up to 2025, we remain optimistic about ABM's ability to execute against our priorities while remaining agile in an evolving environment. The pressures of the current commodity cycle do not seem to be demand driven as we see continued robust demand for mill and oil. We will continue to focus on how we can actively manage our global footprint to best match these realities moving through the remainder of the year. Our processing capacities are improving throughout through the year across our production operations, including the ramp up of Green Bison to full including the ramp up of Green Bison to full capacity and growing production in Ukraine.

Speaker 2

And our forward book indicates that ADM is well positioned to drive value through improved margin opportunities as we move into the back half of the year. Ethanol results have remained robust and we expect solid demand through 2024. Assuming fundamentals hold, we have an opportunity for upside in this part of the business through the year. Our initiatives to manage through the current cycle are expanding additional margin opportunities and opening up new channels to our customers whether in the growth of destination marketing, the expansion of digital technologies focused on farmer needs, the extension of our REGEN AG program and partnership or the growth of our biosolutions platform. So as market conditions improve, ADM has even more exciting platforms for growth and differentiation.

Speaker 2

As noted, we expect to see a significant portion of the planned $500,000,000 cost savings driven by the drive for execution excellence to be realized by the end of this initial year of the program, setting up for potential upside in 2025 as more projects are identified and executed. Our Nutrition business has moved beyond green shoots of positive momentum. We now see cyclical improvement across the broader portfolio flavors, health and wellness, animal nutrition. As this continues through year end, we expect a return to growth that will continue and expand in 2025. In short, progress against our priorities along with our experienced team's ability to pivot in response to an ever changing external environment give us confidence in a solid close to the year and set ADM up well for the continued growth trajectory for our full business in 2025.

Speaker 2

Thank you. Operator, please open the line for questions.

Operator

Thank Our first question comes from Andrew Strelzik with BMO. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Speaker 5

Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking the questions. Good morning. I guess I wanted to ask about the good morning. I wanted to ask about the guidance.

Speaker 5

It seems like you tempered a little bit the language on the AS and O side and nothing else really was changed and you kept the EPS guidance. So I guess I'm curious if there are kind of any other underlying offsets or if you're thinking about kind of the range differently at all. And maybe as we've seen more crush margin strength materialize through the year, how much visibility you have to that?

Speaker 2

Yes. Thank you, Andrew. Listen, as you know, we have 3 businesses, ag services and oil. Sits in this, what we call a transition year, if you will, a rebalancing year from tight supplies to more comfortable SMDs. And so we expected to have a Q2 that were more that was challenging facing challenging conditions, which we did and I think we navigated well.

Speaker 2

As we look at the rest of the year and the improvements we have over the quarter in terms of crush margins, we are executing at this point in time even outside the range of 35 dollars to $60 per metric ton that we gave. So but of course, when you think about our forecast for Ag Services and Allstate, it was heavily weighted on Q4. So to a certain degree until we can put more businesses into Q4, it's probably that we have the same kind of visibility we had before. That's why we decided not to touch the range. On the other hand, Card Solutions continue to be improving.

Speaker 2

And I think that as Ishmael said in his remarks, if current ethanol margins that have improved over the quarter continue to stay that way, we could have an upside there. And certainly, nutrition continues to make significant improvements year over year now versus just being sequential before. So we're optimistic about the second half. We just didn't want to change the guidance at this point in time since it's heavily loaded towards Q4.

Operator

We now turn to Tom Palmer with Citi. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Speaker 6

Good morning and thanks for the question. I wanted to ask on the Nutrition side. You reiterated the outlook for segment profit to increase year over year for the full year. I first just wanted to confirm that this is after adding back the write down in the Q4, so off I think kind of a $495,000,000,000 base? And then second, I wondered if you could elaborate a bit on the key drivers of these improvements over the next couple of quarters.

Speaker 6

The implication would seem to be that 3Q is up year over year and sorry, the implication of 3Q being up year over year, would it seem to imply like a pretty meaningful increase between 2Q and 3Q? I think historically we've seen the opposite where 2Q is a bit more seasonally strong. So just any help on that sequential improvement and then just the base that we're looking to grow as we look at this year? Thank you.

Speaker 2

Yes, Tom. Yes, the base is what you described. You are correct in your assumption there. Let me give you some feel here. The sequential improvement continues in the business, as we said, and that when we start looking at Q3, it looks like it's going to be year over year improvement, which marks a significant improvement in Q3 versus If I go through the different segments, if you will, Flavors continues to do well.

Speaker 2

I think the business is up in sales 6%, excluding M and A. Of course, it's still reeling with some higher cost because of all the demand fulfillment improvements we needed to make. But demand is coming back to normal recovering after a destocking period. So we feel good about our pipeline there. We feel good about our prospects for flavor.

Speaker 2

Specialty ingredients continue to have a challenging time. Demand is soft and we are working through our plant issues. Also we have the issue of texturants or more specifically emulsifiers in that area are coming down after significant record prices last year, if you will. Health and wellness continues to be very strong. Biotech sales growth are up to 22%.

Speaker 2

And I think that the pipeline there and the prospects continue to be very strong. When you think about animal sector, in animal nutrition excluding pet improvement continues and based on strong self help plan, so it's pretty much under our control. So we feel good about that. Pet Solutions is finding mixed results around the globe. If I will say Brazil market conditions continue to be challenging.

Speaker 2

North America, specifically the U. S. Is still having some demand fulfillment issues, but we are looking good in terms of the improvements we're making towards Q3. And Mexico, our B2C business continued to be very strong. So I would say overall with the exception of Specialty Ingredients, which is the weak part, the rest of the improvements sequentially and that will start making them improvements year over year.

Operator

Our next question comes from Heather Jones with Heather Jones Research. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Speaker 3

I just wanted to ask about oilseed process volumes. They were up 1% for the quarter, but in Q1 they were up nearly 9% and you remarked that utilization of Spiritwood was full for the quarter. So I was just wondering if there were one time issues during the quarter and if so, have those been rectified in order to reach all mid- to high single digit growth outlook for the year?

Speaker 2

Yes. Thank you, Heather. As you said, yes, Spiritwood is performing very well. So it's coming up in volumes. Traditionally, I would say, North America, when we have our low part of the cycle in North America where South America has all the capacity, we take shutdowns in anticipation of demand not being very strong and we want to have our plants ready for the harvest.

Speaker 2

So I think that that's a traditional seasonal slowdown that we do. So nothing unusual in that regard.

Operator

Our next question comes from Adam Samuelson with Goldman Sachs. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Speaker 7

Yes. Thank you. Good morning, everyone. I was hoping to maybe drill in on some of the cost and productivity initiatives that you have underway right now. And I think one, there's a target of $500,000,000 savings by the end of 2025, split between the 2 years.

Speaker 7

Can you maybe provide an update on what you've realized to date in 2024? What the 2024 savings kind of are expected to be on a net basis? And maybe any additional color in terms of where within the portfolio those are actually hitting the P and L?

Speaker 5

That would be really appreciated. Thank you.

Speaker 2

Yes. Thank you, Adam, for the question. Yes, we're very proud of how this initiative that we put together at the beginning of the year has continued to accelerate. So, so far we are on track. If you think about $500,000,000 in over 2 years, that's about $125,000,000 per half.

Speaker 2

We delivered about $127,000,000 in the first half. So we're pretty much on track there. But this group of activities and projects and ideas continue to accelerate. So that's not going to be linear. It's going to be an accelerated bringing up to the P and L and to the bottom line.

Speaker 2

So we feel very good about it. We are very confident that our forecast shows that we can deliver on the $500,000,000 wave before the 2 year mark. With regard to what's the distribution of that, of course, sometimes when you have more bigger manufacturing units or bigger energy consumption like in Card Solutions, you have more opportunities to bring that. So I would say, if I were to name a ranking today, initially out of the gate, we see more in Carve Solutions and Nutrition because of some of the improvements we needed to make in demand fulfillment and maybe ag services and oilseas having to pick up momentum during And again, catching momentum when you have a big organization that you need to promote all these activities. So not everybody starts at the same time.

Speaker 2

So we feel very good by being on track. And again, we think ahead of schedule for our $500,000,000 over 2 years.

Operator

Our next question comes from Ben Fiera with Barclays. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Speaker 8

Yes. Good morning, Juan, Ishmael. Thanks for taking my question. I wanted to go back to the nutrition business and just understand a little bit what your cadence is into the back half as the Decatur East plan is going to come back in, you flagged the $25,000,000 higher fixed cost observation. But just wanted to understand how immediately are you going to be able to gain this back?

Speaker 8

So as we move into the ramp up of this the East part of the Couture, how should we think about those cost headwinds that we've been seeing over the past? Is that to be recovered in 2024? Is that more of a 2025 thing? Thank you.

Speaker 4

Yes. Thank you for the question. From the point of view of plant protein, we do expect the plants to come online again in Q4. So we will see some of that recovery coming in. I think as we look at the second half, we significantly pulled quite a bit of volume out in 2023 as a result obviously of the Decatur East facility, but also we had in demand fulfillment.

Speaker 4

So I did report we did report a 3% revenue growth. As we look into the second half, we are seeing an acceleration of that. We expect overall to be on track to deliver roughly in the mid single digit growth when we bring back some of these facilities and demand fulfillment capabilities that we had lost in the second half of twenty twenty three.

Operator

I would say

Speaker 2

maybe complementing Ishmael, I think you said 25 impact, not very much a 24 impact even in the Q4.

Operator

Our next question comes from Manav Gupta with UBS. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Speaker 9

Hi. Quick question. We are seeing a very strong rebound in ethanol margins and it's just seasonal. Is it what else going out there? Do you think this sustains itself in the second half?

Speaker 9

And then how does that position you well in the sweeteners and starches business across in the second half? Thank you.

Speaker 2

Yes. Thank you, Manav for the question. We have been seeing for a while that exports have been increasing year over year. So ethanol continues to be one of the cheapest alkoxylates out there and is very competitive with gasoline in many parts of the world. So we have seen strong domestic demand because of miles driven in the U.

Speaker 2

S. Especially now with the summer. We have been seeing good blending in the U. S. I think the price of ethanol is very competitive to encourage blending.

Speaker 2

And we have seen exports at levels that we never seen before, probably north of 1,700,000,000 maybe even 1,900,000,000 gallons per year. So I think that was a very logical kind of when you see that the strong demand was a very logical that prices will rebound. And again, we don't see any change for now. It will depend on how much the U. S.

Speaker 2

Produces of course of ethanol. But at this point in time, margins are holding and we think that it bodes well for a strong Q3. In terms of sweeteners and starches, that business continued to have very robust volumes and very good margins. If anything that you can see a little bit of a pullback of the energy complex if you will That bodes well for manufacturing costs because these are big facilities. They consume a lot of energy.

Speaker 2

So natural gas prices being close to $2 is a little bit of a tailwind for us. So, carb solution is having a very good year and so we expect that to continue.

Speaker 4

I'd like to complement with on the sweeteners and starches side. As you know, there's been a fairly low crop on crop in Mexico and that has certainly helped with exports of sweetener and starchy products into Mexico. So it's created a demand pool into Mexico that has helped the overall margin structure for our business in North America.

Operator

We now turn to Salvator Tiano with Bank of America. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Speaker 10

Thank you very much. I just wanted to clarify a little bit on the crush margins. Again, I think you made in your prepared remarks a comment that soybean crush margins were $45 per tonne in Q2. And at least based on the reported EBIT, I don't know if I'm missing something and I know it may not be fully comparable. But it looks like that your crush margins per ton were much, much lower than that.

Speaker 10

So what am I missing here? Are you easier, I guess, benchmark the way you're presenting the $35 to $60 materially different from what we would see, for example, on a Bloomberg synthetic margin? And you made also the comment that you recently executed the trades, I guess, above the top end of the range, above $60 So can you elaborate a little bit on that? Is it are we talking about just one off trades? Or is it something that you're actually consistently generating so far in Q3?

Speaker 2

Sure. Yes, let me clarify for you. First of all, the $45 per ton is $45 per ton we made this year. So we can work offline to walk you through the arithmetic if you will, but there's no nothing strange on that. If I go around the world if you will on crush margins, At this point between $60 to $70 in the U.

Speaker 2

S. That's where we are making businesses. About similar margins for soy in Europe, Brazil maybe something between $10,000,000 $50,000,000 depending if they are domestic plants or export plants. China $20 to $25 that's kind of the margin environment. I would say when we started the quarter, we were doing margins in the low end of our range.

Speaker 2

And as maybe Argentine farmers did not sell, as maybe the industry was expecting, we saw more demand for soybean meal coming into North America that make an improvement in our crush margin. So we finished the quarter a little bit better than maybe we thought with the $45 per ton. We are selling we said before that we were relatively open going out. We have some of the Q3 sold. What we don't have sold, we are selling at about $60 to $70 per ton.

Speaker 2

So that's the crash realities at this point in time. So I think that then we're going to leap into Q4 where we have hopefully a very large crop here in the U. S. Crops look terrific so far in the U. S.

Speaker 2

So we expect to have plenty of raw materials in that. And demand for soybean meal continues to be strong around the world and I think low prices have incentivated demand. Demand is driven a lot by poultry, as you know, and soybean meal has been increasing in the rations. And then on the oil side, we continue to see a little bit more RGD plants coming on stream on the second half. So that will bode well as well.

Speaker 2

So we are positive about crush margin for the rest of the year for North America.

Operator

We now turn to Dushyant Elani with Jefferies. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Speaker 6

Hi, yes. Can you hear me?

Speaker 2

Yes, I can.

Speaker 6

Yes. Thank you for taking my question. Just wanted to talk on the CapEx guide. I think it's improved

Speaker 10

or it's increased by roughly $100,000,000 Just wanted to see what's driving that?

Speaker 2

Yes. I think CapEx is always the prioritization of CapEx is always NDEs or maintenance and safety we do and quality we do first. So whatever the plans need at any point in time. So that's a bottoms up roll up of their respective needs. Then we fill it up with cost projects which the execution excellence challenge that we have to deliver $500,000,000 and bringing more ideas.

Speaker 2

Some of those ideas require CapEx, so you can see that growing. And then there are growth projects around the world. So I would say nothing specifically. It's a little bit of everybody else executing on their plans. So I would say nothing there is a little bit of CapEx inflation as well in our numbers because things are a little bit more expensive than maybe they were 2 years ago.

Operator

Our next question comes from Stephen Haynes with Morgan Stanley. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Speaker 6

Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking my question. I wanted to come back to Argentina. You mentioned it's been a bit of a head tailwind kind of towards the end of the second quarter on some slower than expected farmer selling. So how are you kind of thinking about how that evolves over the balance of the year?

Speaker 6

And what's kind of help us think about the risk of Argentina kind of coming back into the market in a more meaningful way going forward? Thank you.

Speaker 2

Yes. So what happened in Argentina, there was a big expectation for the unification of the exchange rate. And of course, that hasn't happened so far. On the contrary, the gap has increased to about 50% or 55%. So at this point in time, when you combine low commodity prices because of all the abundant production and then the exchange rate is not very favorable for the farmer to sell.

Speaker 2

So the farmer in Argentina is selling a little bit more corn, but trying to hold the beans. So the question is will the government be able to unify the exchange rate? I think the government's priorities right now is to fight inflation and that's what the whole plan. So they don't have a lot of room to maneuver to change something because the moment you devalue or you change the exchange rate, everything is translated into prices. And the priority right now is to control prices.

Speaker 2

So I think this is for the good of Argentina long term as a country, but I think short term will present a problem for the farmer to sell. So I think the farmer will hold as much as possible unless there is a special program that the government rolls out that they don't seem to have a lot of latitude to do so at this point in time. So I think we need to be cautious about the thinking that a lot of the crop will come as a glut to Argentina. It hasn't happened so far.

Operator

We have a follow-up question from Heather Jones with Heather Jones Research. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Speaker 3

Thanks for taking the follow-up. I wanted to ask about the Yuko and to the Chinese Yuko into the U. S. Situation. So our understanding is those have slowed some and then there's an expectation that with Europe imposing anti dumping duties on Chinese biodiesel that China may shift more of their UCO to that market and not as much to the U.

Speaker 3

S. And just I was wondering what you all are seeing there and how you're expecting that to evolve throughout the year?

Speaker 2

Yes. Thank you, Heather. So of course, there was a lot of noise by the industry about the prospects of maybe some adulterated or not quite truly EUCO coming into the U. S. And checking for that.

Speaker 2

So we have seen some significant moderation of that coming. I don't want to pinpoint a particular reason, but part of that what you mentioned maybe in Europe is true as well. Europe will not allow row crops to be part of that. So as they start to build SAF, they will have to use more U. K.

Speaker 2

So it's naturally that some of those flows will move to Europe. The current North American feedstock market is better balanced after the situation we have in Q1. So I think also we saw palm oil going up in prices. So I think that it bodes better for soybean oil going forward for the U. S.

Operator

We have another follow-up from Salvator Tiano with Bank of America. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Speaker 10

Yes. Thank you very much. Just want to ask about the ethanol outlook. And I know you talked about a lot of factors here. But clearly, your commentary on the starches and sweeteners, which include, I guess, the wet meals was more negative, saying about lower ethanol margins year on year, whereas VCP being the dry mills, it was much, much higher year on year.

Speaker 10

So can you discuss a little bit the differentiation there? And it seems like a lot of the delta is from the export side. So essentially, are you seeing different pricing, different margins from the exports? And as they become a much more important part of the ethanol mix, which we weren't used to in the past, Is this something that besides being a driver of demand and operating rates, is it something that's margin accretive? Or do the netbacks tend to be lower for export ethanol?

Speaker 2

Yes. There are several factors, Salvador, here in place. So first of all, the ethanol margins are the ethanol margins and they are better right now. They are probably twice as big as they were at the beginning of the quarter. There are some particular export markets where we can export as a premium and we're taking advantage on that.

Speaker 2

I don't have top of my head where we export those from in terms of plants. But at this point in time, I would say the challenge not the challenge, but maybe the activity has been on the logistics side to make sure that we can fulfill all the exports and we can get the ports. Because as you said and I said before demand has been very strong and margins are very good. So we need to take advantage on that. Plants are running well.

Speaker 2

As I said, costs are coming a little bit lower. So this all bodes well for the forecast. And there's no reason for demand to change significantly outside of the world. We have a basket of countries where we are exporting is very well balanced. So at this point in time, we're looking at Q3 with optimism.

Operator

We have another follow-up from Andrew Strelzik with BMO. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Speaker 5

Great. Thank you. I wanted to just get your perspective on broader biofuels policy. As we get deeper into the back part of the year here, we're getting close to some upcoming changes, obviously the PTC, maybe decisions around the RVL importexport dynamics. So just was curious for some updated thoughts about how those policy shifts will impact your business and whether you think there's risk on the timing of some of those things getting done.

Speaker 5

It feels like some of the timing around biofuels policy has been a moving target in a number of different ways. So just curious for how you're thinking about that progressing and impacting your business from here? Thanks.

Speaker 2

Yes. I think all this regulatory framework creates movements and uncertainty. The more clarity the industry can have, of course, the better. I think you have to think about the message around biodiesel blenders credit to it, producer credit is, at the end of the day, we still have a higher mandate for 2025 and a RIN deficit in 2024. So I think that you have to think that vegetable oil will be part of the solution to fill in that mandate.

Speaker 2

Ultimately, the pie is getting bigger here and nutty vegetable oil should be gaining on the low CI products especially now that California CFS credits have come down a little bit. So I think that the problem with these are the short terms gyrations of that. It's very difficult to know what's going to happen in Q4. So maybe we have an accelerated buying in Q4, maybe we have a little bit of a slowdown in Q1. But I think overall, as we look at that overall policy is constructive for all these and we see more demand and the pie getting bigger.

Speaker 2

So I think it's all positive for crush margins in the medium or long term. Calling it by quarter is more difficult.

Operator

We have no further questions. So I'll now hand back to Megan Britt for closing remarks.

Speaker 1

Thank you for joining us today. Please feel free to follow-up with me if you have additional questions. Have a good day and thanks for your time and interest in ADM.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, today's call has now concluded. We'd like to thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect your lines.

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Earnings Conference Call
Archer-Daniels-Midland Q2 2024
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