T. Rowe Price Group Q3 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

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Operator

Good morning. My name is Daniel and I will be your conference facilitator today. Welcome to T. Rowe Price's Third Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions]

I will now turn the call over to Linsley Carruth, T Rowe Price's Director of Investor Relations.

Linsley Carruth
Director of Investor Relations at T. Rowe Price Group

Hello and thank you for joining us today for our third quarter earnings call. The press release and a supplemental materials document can be found on our IR website at investors.troweprice.com. Today's call will last approximately 45 minutes. Our Chair, CEO and President, Rob Sharps and CFO, Jen Dardis, will discuss the company's results for about 15 minutes. Then we'll open it up for your questions. We ask that you limit it to one question per participant. I'd like to remind you that during the course of this call, we may make a number of forward-looking statements and reference certain non-GAAP financial measures. Please refer to the forward-looking statement language and the reconciliations to GAAP in the supplemental materials, as well as in our press release and 10-Q. All investment performance references to peer groups on today's call are using Morningstar peer groups and for the quarter that ended September 30, 2024.

Now, I'll turn it over to Rob.

Robert Sharps
Chief Executive Officer and President at T. Rowe Price Group

Thank you, Linsley and thank you all for joining our third quarter earnings call. Call. We closed the quarter with $1.63 trillion in assets under management, up 3.9% from June 30th, despite $12.2 billion in net outflows. While net outflows increased in the third quarter, we are seeing encouraging signs that we are on the right path. Our active ETF franchise is expanding. We are deepening our retirement leadership position with the launch of innovative retirement solutions and our associates are advancing our strategic initiatives across the business. We remain on-track to reduce net outflows this year.

I'll now turn to investment performance. Our long-term investment performance remains solid despite softer results this quarter. In our equity franchise, US mid-cap value, US equity research, integrated US small mid-cap core equity and integrated global equity all continue to be top quartile performers for the one, three and five year time periods. In our ETF franchise, our semi-transparent US equity research ETF now has top quartile performance for both the one and three year time periods and in our more recently launched transparent equity ETFs, the growth and small mid-cap ETFs remain top-quartile performers for the one-year time period.

In fixed income, our muni strategies continue to be strong performers as do our floating rate and ultra short-term bond ETFs, both of which have top quartile performance across multiple time periods. While underlying stock selection in an overweight towards US equities were detractors to relative performance in the third quarter, our flagship retirement funds and the new retirement blend funds continue to have strong long-term performance. Over 90% of our target date assets are in the top quartile for the five, 10 and 15-year time periods on an AUM basis.

Returns across alternative strategies were positive during the quarter and broadly consistent with the constructive market backdrop. Private, structured and liquid strategies generated stronger results, while distressed and special situations lagged. As I shared earlier, third quarter net outflows totaled $12.2 billion. We do expect further increases in net outflows during the fourth quarter, reflecting seasonal trends and a large sub-advised variable annuity termination now expected in late Q4. Even with this loss, we remain on track to reduce net outflows this year, although not as significantly as we had previously expected.

Excluding the VA termination, we estimated 2024 net outflows to be less than half of 2023 levels. Jen will share more detail in a moment, but I want to underscore that while this unanticipated loss was deeply disappointing, it doesn't undo the progress we have made in other areas. We are expanding our ETF business and deepening our leadership in retirement with innovative new strategies. With our recently launched technology ETF, we provide investors our first sector focused, fully transparent portfolio with the tax-efficient, convenient and cost effective benefits of the ETF wrapper.

We also recently launched two new retirement offerings, personalized retirement manager and Managed Lifetime Income. Personalized Retirement manager is the industry's first managed account designed to create a unique asset allocation tailored for the individual, incorporating personal data into the proven lifecycle investment philosophy and process that underpin our leading target date strategies.

Managed Lifetime Income is a new retirement solution designed to provide retirees in a defined contribution plan with stable and predictable monthly income for life. Managed Lifetime Income combines a managed payout investment from T. Rowe Price with a qualifying longevity annuity contract from Pacific Life to offer a unique union of professional asset management and guaranteed monthly payouts. We are also seeing increased client interest in co-developing and customizing our target date capabilities and we're notified of a sizable custom glide path win expected next year.

We are reaching key milestones in areas beyond retirement as well. We had our first close for OLEND, our senior private lending fund, which drove much of this quarter's $3 billion increase in unfunded capital commitments. Our focus on US wealth resulted in new relationships that are launching this year, new placements in-home office models and more partnerships focused on ETFs and SMAs. Finally, despite the VA termination I noted earlier, our weighted net pipeline grew quarter-over-quarter, suggesting that elevated fourth quarter outflows are not indicative of the underlying trajectory of our business. I want to recognize the tremendous work our associates are doing on behalf of our clients, our firm and our stockholders. It's their focus on continuous improvement in their agile mindset that are driving our progress.

I'll now turn to Jen to provide an overview of our financial results.

Jen Dardis
Chief Financial Officer at T. Rowe Price Group

Thank you, Rob and hello, everyone. I'll review our third quarter results before opening the line for questions. Our adjusted earnings per share of $2.57 for Q3, 2024 is up over 18% from Q3 of last year, driven by higher average AUM, higher adjusted operating income and a lower effective tax rate. These factors also drove a nearly 14% increase in EPS from Q2 of this year. We reported $12.2 billion in net outflows this quarter, which is an improvement from Q3 2023, but higher than the first half of 2024. US equity products remain the primary driver of outflows, particularly in our growth strategies. Our US equity research strategy, however, had net inflows of over $1.5 billion this quarter.

We also had positive net inflows across fixed-income, multi-asset and alternatives. Within multi-asset, we had another strong quarter in our target date franchise with net inflows of $3.6 billion. Our year-to-date inflows of $14.1 billion outpaces the active industry growth rate, particularly in the blend category. Our ETF business had just under $1 billion of net inflows in the quarter, bringing our September 30th AUM to over $6.5 billion. And outside the US, we had positive net inflows driven by global equity in the APAC region and alternatives in the EMEA region.

As Rob mentioned, we were recently notified of a large sub-advised variable annuity termination. We expect that nearly all of the assets related to this termination will be redeemed during the fourth quarter. Given the size of this outflow, I want to provide some background on our VA business, which you'll find on page 15 of the supplement. At a high-level, we provide investment management services for VA products sold by insurance company sponsors. In some cases, we are the sole manager and the product may be branded as T. Rowe Price, while in other cases, we're one sleeve of a multi-manager product.

Our VA assets are $104 billion or a little over 6% of our total AUM, which is down from 9% in 2019. Similar to the overall VA industry, our VA business has experienced net outflows for the past several years and we don't expect that trend to change meaningfully. That said, given the large fourth quarter termination, the level of VA outflows for the full-year 2024 will be higher than we would have otherwise expected. While this area is not an organic growth driver for the firm, this book of business has many longstanding and important clients and we will continue to deliver on their behalf.

Shifting to our financials, our Q3 adjusted net revenues were $1.8 billion, which is up 7% from last year and up 3% from the second quarter, driven by higher investment advisory revenue from higher average AUM. Our Q3 annualized effective fee rate of 40.9 basis points declined from Q3 2023 and Q2 2024 as assets continue to shift into lower fee vehicles and asset classes. This quarter's investment advisory revenue of $1.6 billion included $5.6 million in performance based fees from alternatives products, primarily from the BDC.

Our adjusted operating expenses of $1.1 billion were up 3.6% from Q3 2023 due mainly to increases in compensation benefits and related costs and distribution and servicing fees on higher AUM. While G&A is also up from last year, Q3 2023 included a $20 million non-recurring cost recovery. Our adjusted operating income of $718 million was up 13% from Q3 2023 and almost 10% from last quarter.

For the balance of the year, we continue to expect 2024 adjusted operating expenses, excluding carried interest expense to be 6% to 8% over the comparable full-year 2023 amount of $4.19 billion. While we're at the bottom-end of this range through nine months, similar to last year, we anticipate an increase in a number of expense categories in Q4, some of which are due to seasonal factors and timing and will not carry into the 2025 run-rate. Notably, our stock-based compensation is typically higher in December given the timing of our annual grant and we expect advertising and promotion expenses to be higher due to the seasonality of our advertising efforts. We are also forecasting higher professional fees as we complete projects before the close of the year.

Turning our attention to capital management, we repurchased $71 million worth of shares during the third quarter, bringing the year-to-date value of buybacks to nearly $264 million. We feel comfortable with our current pace of buybacks as we evaluate repurchases through the remaining months of 2024. Combined with a quarterly dividend of $1.24 per share, we have returned over $1.1 billion to stockholders in the first nine months of the year. Our balance sheet remained strong with over $3.6 billion in cash and discretionary investments at the end of Q3.

As we approach year-end, our teams are focusing on 2025 and identifying the areas where we will invest to drive future growth and deliver new capabilities to best serve our clients. We will continue to balance this investment with the need for ongoing expense discipline.

And now, I'll ask the operator to open the line for Q&A.

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Operator

[Operator Instructions] And our first question comes from Alex Blostein with Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.

Alexander Blostein
Analyst at The Goldman Sachs Group

Hey, good morning, everyone. Thank you for the question. Rob, would love to get your perspective on the organic growth to start. Good perspective on the VA business on slide 15. I think you mentioned that you guys obviously made progress on the business, excluding the VA sub-advisory outflows, expected to be, I guess, less than half of the outflows you saw last year. That's still I think implies a pretty meaningful step up in outflows in Q4 excluding the VVA sub-advisory issue. So maybe just unpack what you're seeing in the fourth quarter and whether or not the outflows there on a kind of core basis are also a bit more elevated than normally? And any thoughts you have for 2025 would be appreciated as well. Thanks.

Robert Sharps
Chief Executive Officer and President at T. Rowe Price Group

Yeah, good morning, Alex. Specifically, as it relates to 2024, I would say that what we're seeing outside of the specific VA mandate is pretty consistent with typical seasonal patterns. We tend to have a little bit more in the way of redemption pressure in the fourth quarter and particularly near year-end. Outside of that, I think the underlying trends are pretty clearly headed in the right direction. So I'll take a step-back, as you said and as I noted earlier, that excluding the VA loss, 2024 outflows would have been less than half of 2023 levels. I think that reflects pretty substantive progress relative to where we were.

Regarding 2025, I would say we expect sizable further improvement as we trend toward positive flows. And if you take a step back and think about the trends and drivers, active equities as an asset class and mutual funds as a vehicle are in outflow and have been for some time. That said, I think there's meaningful room for improvement in active equities given performance improvement in a few of our key franchises, notably large cap growth, where we're seeing both gross sales and redemptions following improved performance and trending in the right direction.

Outside of that, we have positive flows in all of other asset classes in most other vehicles. Gross sales are up in all but one of our channels and geographies year-over-year so far in 2024. We continue to expect strong growth in retirement date funds in 2025 and beyond. So this year, year-to-date is up relative to last year. We expect the year to be up and feel very good about the momentum that we have across the retirement date franchise. In 2025, you can expect that we'll have a larger contribution from alternatives, ETFs and SMAs.

I also think we have opportunity to build further momentum in fixed income, especially in areas like insurance. And we have work to do to bring those opportunities for fruition, but they're out there and I think we're well positioned to capitalize on. Flows are really hard to predict. I'd say it's very difficult to say whether all of this will be enough to move us into positive territory in 2025. My base case at this point based on our most current forecast is that we will make meaningful further progress, but won't get there for the full-year. Regardless, I think we'll demonstrate that we're on a path that will take us back to organic growth, whether we get there in 2025 or not.

Jen, would you add anything?

Jen Dardis
Chief Financial Officer at T. Rowe Price Group

No, I think you covered it.

Operator

Thank you. And our next question comes from Michael Cyprys with Morgan Stanley. Your line is open.

Michael Cyprys
Analyst at Morgan Stanley

Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking the question. I just want to ask about retirement. I was hoping maybe you could just update us on the -- your views there on the retirement market, competitive landscape, some of the steps you guys are taking to drive growth in the retirement channel, including the new lifetime managed payout product. Maybe you could talk about how that works, your go-to-market strategy for that, how you sort of plan to build traction? And then I think you mentioned a LifePath win for next year, maybe you can help quantify that. Thank you.

Robert Sharps
Chief Executive Officer and President at T. Rowe Price Group

Yeah. Hi, good morning. So the specific win that we referenced is custom glide path win. So as you know, we have a tremendous amount of research behind our lifecycle investing approach and we have glide path that underlies the asset allocation of our target date funds. There are certain instances where you have a plan sponsor that wants a glide path that is designed specifically to the demographics of their participant pool. And for us typically a fee for that would be relatively small and it would come in the as AUA, so it wouldn't come in the investment advisory fee line. So that was what that specific reference was.

In terms of broad trends, I would say we've got a lot of momentum across our set of offerings, flagship retirement date fund, but also blend. Our pipeline there is very strong. Specifically, as it relates to the two new products that were launched, they're launched on our record keeping system, which I think shows the strategic benefit of having a record keeper. Our personalized retirement manager is a managed account strategy that's customized based on input from the participant in addition to just their estimated retirement date. And we think it's particularly compelling. It uses a lot of the research and assumptions that underlie the core target franchise, but custom tailor it to the particular interest and positioning of the underlying participant. I would also say that the fees on that are attractive relative to other managed account offerings in retirement overall.

Finally, with regard to the lifetime income product that incorporates at QLAC, we think it's a compelling design structure. It's also initially being launched on the T. Rowe Price record keeping platform. Both products are new to market, but in time as we build scale and demonstrate the attractiveness, we expect to be able to extend them to other record keeping platforms in time.

Jen Dardis
Chief Financial Officer at T. Rowe Price Group

Yeah, I might just add, I mean you asked about the go-to-market strategy and many of the things that Rob highlighted, as he just mentioned are on our record keeping platform, but we serve retirement plans not only on our own record keeping platform, but even more so on what we call DCIO, our DC investment only strategy and we have opportunities to either provide our target date products overtime to be able to sell some of these more extended strategies, but also to be able to participate as a sleeve in certain cases of other people's products that they're -- that they're developing.

Robert Sharps
Chief Executive Officer and President at T. Rowe Price Group

Yeah, we've really leaned in to build our partnership with a number of the leading retirement franchises, both firms that focus on retirement consulting, but also the record keeping platforms. We worked hard with co-development. And as a result of that, I think we're very, very well-positioned with our suite of retirement day products, as well as some of the things that we're doing for retirement income across record keepers, not just on the T. Rowe Price record keeping platform.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Benjamin Budish with Barclays Capital. Your line is open.

Benjamin Budish
Analyst at Barclays

Hi, good morning and thanks for taking the question. I wanted to ask about private credit. I guess maybe kind of a two-parter. First, can you remind us how much of the business is sort of related to like senior direct lending, just thinking about sort of the opportunity set going into next year if as what the market seems to be expecting happens, which is that we see a big pickup in transacting activity, how are you positioned for that? And then, Rob, you mentioned something about doing more on the fixed income side in insurance. I'm curious to what extent could that perhaps be related to private credit or what else did you mean there? Thank you.

Robert Sharps
Chief Executive Officer and President at T. Rowe Price Group

Yeah, Ben, I'll take the latter part of the question first. Specifically with regard to opportunities in insurance, it's really across our fixed income business. Fixed income -- insurance general account tends to have very, very sizable investments in investment grade corporate credit and we see some opportunity there. We also would see opportunity to offer private credit and alternative strategies to insurance investors. I think many insurance investors are looking to increase yield on their underlying portfolio and looking to private strategies as a way to do that attractively on a risk-adjusted basis that would basically improve their own economics, but also improve the attractiveness of their underlying products.

So it certainly would incorporate opportunities with OHA, but wouldn't be exclusive or limited. I think it would also include opportunities on the liquid side, potentially both with OHA, but also with T. Rowe Price' fixed income platform. Specifically, as it relates to private credit, dedicated senior private lending is not an area that OHA historically had operated -- had offered to their clients. They've got a lot of experience in private credit broadly, but they have actually closed their first dedicated senior private lending fund.

So if you zoom out a little bit, OHA had a record quarter of capital raising, $5.5 billion in new capital commitments this quarter, bringing the year-to-date number to over $9 billion. And I would say a meaningful portion of that, a notable portion was in private credit. So they closed their first close on their senior private lending fund, which was $2 billion. So these increased capital commitments will boost flows as the capital is deployed. So that will be based on where there's origination and where OHA sees opportunities. But I'm pretty confident based on what we're seeing from a capital commitment perspective that alternatives flows should accelerate into 2025.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Dan Fannon with Jefferies. Your line is open.

Daniel Fannon
Analyst at Jefferies Financial Group

Thanks. Good morning. Rob, wanted to follow-up on your comments around the institutional backlog building ex the sub-advised mandate. So can you put some context around that in terms of the products? And ultimately, how you think about, I guess, the sales cycle here today? Is that like the funding that looking into next year or is that more of a kind of three, four months kind of window?

Robert Sharps
Chief Executive Officer and President at T. Rowe Price Group

Yeah. Thank you for the question. It is over a year. It is a weighted pipeline. It's not just institutional. It is really across our book of business and it's across asset classes. So basically we have mandates that are risk-weighted and marked at-risk as well as opportunities that are risk weighted. And I think it was very notable that despite the fact that we were notified of this sizable termination that the risk-weighted pipeline actually increased on a quarter-over-quarter basis. Now this particular mandate was partially marked at-risk, but not fully kind of marked at-risk, which it clearly is now given that we've been notified of termination. But we were able to, on a risk-weighted basis, bring in enough new opportunity that we think will close over the course of the next 12 months that despite taking that to full loss that the pipeline has increased.

And I would say that it's broad based. Again, I think it is reflective of the trends that you see in the underlying business, it is less at risk and more opportunity in active equity, in particular large growth. It's continued momentum in equity in areas like structured research and certain of our global equity strategies. It shows some momentum in fixed income and clearly a very nice pipeline across the retirement day suite.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Ken Worthington with J.P. Morgan. Your line is open.

Ken Worthington
Analyst at J.P. Morgan

Hi, good morning and thanks for taking the question. In terms of your ETF franchise, to what extent is it expanding your customer reach and allowing you to get into different distribution channels? And to what extent is it just sort of cannibalizing your existing fund assets for an extra basis point? And in terms of the cost of distribution here for ETFs, is it any different than kind of what you're paying for access with the fund franchise? Thanks.

Robert Sharps
Chief Executive Officer and President at T. Rowe Price Group

So on the first part of the question, Ken, I would say there's some element of both, right? I mean, in other words, I think there are some buyers that have historically used open-ended mutual funds that at the margin have a preference, particularly if the same strategy is available for ETF. That said, we have a number of strategies that we're offering in ETF, particularly the fully transparent suite that are not strategies that are available in open-ended fund. I'd also say that we're reaching a different set of buyers. There are a number of advisers that are exclusive to ETF. So by definition, historically, they wouldn't have been involved in our open ended fund. We actually just hosted a due diligence event for a number of ETF focused advisers here.

So I do think we are reaching new buyers. I think in particular with several of those strategies that aren't offered in open-ended fund, we can clearly ascribe that to being an incremental opportunity. But there has to be some element, particularly with the semi-transparent clone of cannibalization. I can't say that we see a lot of people moving from one to the other. You have to remember, a lot of the investors in the open ended funds have sizable embedded gains. So it would be costly for them to sell the open-ended fund just to buy the ETF. I think there are a lot of wealth platforms that prefer not to offer the same strategy in both vehicles. So I think we can say with reasonable confidence that a substantial portion of what we're getting in the ETF business is new and incremental, but there clearly is some cannibalization.

With regard to cost to access, I would say it really is no different. I mean, it really varies by platform. We have some partnerships with folks that are focused on ETF that we're developing and I would say the same sort of distribution economics apply to ETFs that they do to open ended funds with the exception being that you don't have kind of some of the non-management fee expense ratio opportunity with an ETF that you do with an open-ended fund.

Operator

Thank you. And our next question comes from Craig Siegenthaler with Bank of America. Your line is open.

Craig Siegenthaler
Analyst at Bank of America

Hey, good morning, everyone. Hope you're all doing well. I have a follow-up to Mike's question on Managed Lifetime Income. So many view the rider as a positive by recreating a defined benefit like experience for retirees. But I was curious on the IR math by adding an insurance guarantee onto a foreign key investment product just given the added cost and they take away downside risk, but what is the annual cost of these riders? So essentially, how does it impact the long-term return math? And given that 401(k) plan sponsors are generally pretty fee sensitive, how does the guarantee get around that constraint?

Robert Sharps
Chief Executive Officer and President at T. Rowe Price Group

Yeah, that's a pretty specific question. I think to get into the detailed specifics, I'll have you follow-up with Linsley. But look, we think this is a really well-designed product. We think incorporating the QLAC and having the guaranteed payout start on a deferred basis creates a more optimal outcome for the planned participant. I think our team believes that marrying it with a T. Rowe Price to manage payout option gives a tremendous amount of flexibility in the early years of retirement when the participant is more active and may require greater flexibility. And then the guaranteed payout comes later in life where it ultimately becomes more important.

Specifically with regard to the trade-offs in the economics, QLACs are quite affordable relative to other fixed annuity. So kind of ultimately, there is some cost to getting the guarantee, obviously. But in terms of the specific economics, I probably should have somebody from that team and Linsley follow-up with you on that.

Jen Dardis
Chief Financial Officer at T. Rowe Price Group

And part of the design of it is that it's not the full amount of the assets that the client has. So you're designed to do a small portion of it so that you're balancing the risk and cost trade-off.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Glenn Schorr with Evercore ISI. Your line is open.

Glenn Schorr
Analyst at Evercore ISI

Thanks. Hello. Quickie, how close do you think we are to seeing private market allocations inside target date funds and retirement plans? And maybe more importantly, how are you thinking about leveraging the great zero price brand and distribution network, specifically related to private markets? Thanks.

Robert Sharps
Chief Executive Officer and President at T. Rowe Price Group

Yeah. Glenn, I'd say it's really hard to know. Obviously, we've got an election next week and the results of that election will determine kind of where we're headed from a regulatory perspective. Look, I think there's a lot of discussion and potentially some interest. But until we get some regulatory clarity, I think it's unlikely to happen. So we don't have a lot of visibility on when that will happen, let alone how it would happen. I think we have a tremendous amount of flexibility kind of once there is an interest among plan sponsors to incorporate private market alternatives into defined contribution offerings and things like target date funds to be thoughtful about how we would incorporate.

What we would do that is related to OHA or T. Rowe Price proprietary, who we would partner with. We've had a lot of discussions and done a lot of work and I think we have a really good sense of what our range of options are. But as things stand, I'll reiterate what I've said before. The defined contribution market is a fee sensitive market and the record keeping platforms are not designed to deal with the lack of daily pricing, lack of liquidity that private market alternatives would introduce. I'll also say that, again, there is not any clarity at all from a regulatory perspective with regard to incorporating private market alternatives. And I think many plant sponsors are quite concerned with regard to litigation.

So I think it's some ways out. I think even once you get regulatory clarity, getting the plant sponsors to buy in and getting the infrastructure in place to incorporate and accommodate it will take some amount of time. But what I -- I guess my message to you is that I think when that happens, we'll be an extraordinarily attractive partner. It will create an opportunity for us with some of the things that we do inside of T. Rowe Price. And whatever we do, we'll make sure that it's attractive and compelling as part of our offering to plan sponsors and participants.

Glenn Schorr
Analyst at Evercore ISI

Thank you.

Robert Sharps
Chief Executive Officer and President at T. Rowe Price Group

That wasn't such a quickie.

Operator

Our next question comes from Patrick Davitt with Autonomous Research. Your line is open.

Patrick Davitt
Analyst at Autonomous Research

Hey, good morning, everyone. Thanks for the VA disclosure, helpful. Could you remind on the make-up of the client base of the other $85 billion and why that's stickier than the VA side? Thank you.

Jen Dardis
Chief Financial Officer at T. Rowe Price Group

Sorry. So the rest of the other $85 billion or thereabouts based on once we would have the outflow, they are VA. I just want to clarify, you said that outside of VA, but those are -- oh, I'm sorry, I'm getting the clarity. There are other $85 billion outside of the VA, just want to clarify because there could be some discontinuity between those numbers, sorry.

Patrick Davitt
Analyst at Autonomous Research

So the Mon [Phonetic] VA.

Jen Dardis
Chief Financial Officer at T. Rowe Price Group

Yeah. Sorry. So in other cases, we are the sub-advised carrier for other types of plans outside of variable annuity and that could be in retirement, that could be in -- it's, well, primarily in retirement and those assets tend to be more sticky. I don't know that I would go into more detail than that.

Robert Sharps
Chief Executive Officer and President at T. Rowe Price Group

Yeah, I think we're not seeing the same trends across the sub-advisory platform that we're seeing within VA. VA is a business that several of our clients have deemphasized or within their portfolio have lost share to fixed index annuities, RILO's fixed annuities in a higher rate environment. So that the underlying product is one that kind of while still important and still prioritized by certain of our clients across the book, that's not necessarily the case. The rest of the sub-advisory business, which would be across wealth and retirement, doesn't face some of that, that same underlying pressure. So the trends would not be consistent with what we're showing in VA.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Brennan Hawken with UBS. Your line is open.

Brennan Hawken
Analyst at UBS Group

Good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. The performance this quarter seems to take a rather meaningful hit, especially on a one-year basis. Could you maybe provide some color around what you think might have driven that? And any potential adjustments or actions you guys could be taken on the back of it?

Robert Sharps
Chief Executive Officer and President at T. Rowe Price Group

In my prepared remarks, I mentioned a number of places where the numbers are really good. There are clearly places we need to do better, but I'm confident that we have an approach that will deliver over time and I don't think there are any kind of drastic measures or steps that we'll need to take in order to deliver performance. I'd also say that we are at a point now where if you look at the starting point for three and five year in particular, the very poor performance here in 2022 looms pretty large. That poor performance period actually started in Q4 of 2021. So for a number of our big strategies, we start to begin to roll-off that period where we were in a negative performance cycle. So as long as we do our job over the course of the next several quarters, I expect those aggregate metrics to steadily increase or improve.

Operator

Thank you. And our next question comes from Mike Brown with WFS. Your line is open.

Michael Brown
Analyst at Wells Fargo & Company

Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my question. Jen, I appreciate the expense comments for next quarter and for the full-year. I guess I know it's early in probably the planning process. But as you look to 2025, how are you thinking about expense growth next year? And what are some kind of key areas of investment that you'll be focusing on next year? Thank you.

Jen Dardis
Chief Financial Officer at T. Rowe Price Group

Thanks for the question. So we are still in the middle of our annual planning process and I'm not prepared to give formal guidance on 2025 today. But that said, similar to last year, our ingoing goal as we've been going through the planning process has been to roughly try to align expense growth with forecasted revenue growth on a planned basis, assuming our current AUM trajectory and average market returns. So last year, we started the year with 3% to 5% expense growth, excluding carried interest comp and have increased that range to 6% to 8% based on higher average market returns and the resulting higher market driven expenses. If you think about where we are with revenue momentum from 2024 into 2025, it's stronger this time than last year.

So I would expect our opening expense guide would be a little bit higher than last year, but we won't get to a final number for you all until next quarter. We're mindful of balancing those areas of investment. As you mentioned, with the need to manage expense growth. If we think about the places where we've been investing, it's really behind the momentum that Rob mentioned earlier, investing in the ETF franchise, some of our other vehicles, continuing to expand our marketing and reach outside of the US, continuing to invest behind our alternative sales, plans and platforms and continue -- continuing to invest in ways to make sure that we can be more efficient in our core operating and operations and technology.

Operator

Thank you. I'm showing no further questions at this time. I would now like to turn it back to Rob Sharps for closing remarks.

Robert Sharps
Chief Executive Officer and President at T. Rowe Price Group

All right, very good. Thank you all for your questions and your interest in T. Rowe Price and we look forward to speaking to you next quarter.

Operator

[Operator Closing Remarks]

Corporate Executives
  • Linsley Carruth
    Director of Investor Relations
  • Robert Sharps
    Chief Executive Officer and President
  • Jen Dardis
    Chief Financial Officer

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