Cincinnati Financial Q3 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
October 25, 2024

Key Takeaways

  • Consolidated property casualty net written premiums grew 17% year-over-year in Q3, including 11% growth in commercial lines, 29% in personal lines and 23% in excess and surplus lines.
  • The Q3 property casualty combined ratio was 97.4%, up 3.0 points from last year including catastrophe losses, while the accident-year ex-catastrophe combined ratio improved 0.9 points to 86.8%.
  • The equity portfolio generated an after-tax $645 million fair value gain in Q3, bond interest income rose 21% with a 4.8% average yield, and the company added $672 million of fixed maturities to the portfolio.
  • The company estimates $75–125 million of pre-tax incurred losses in Q4 net of reinsurance for Hurricane Milton, with Cincinnati Re absorbing over half and direct business losses under $15 million.
  • Through the first nine months, Cincinnati Financial returned capital with $365 million of dividends and 1.1 million shares repurchased, paid another $120 million dividend in Q4 and ended Q3 with a record $88.32 book value per share.
AI Generated. May Contain Errors.
Earnings Conference Call
Cincinnati Financial Q3 2024
00:00 / 00:00

There are 9 speakers on the call.

Operator

Good day, and welcome to the Cincinnati Financial Corporation Third Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. All participants will be in a listen only mode. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Dennis McDaniel, Investor Relations Officer.

Operator

Please go ahead.

Speaker 1

Hello. This is Dennis McDaniel at Cincinnati Financial. Thank you for joining us for our Q3 2024 earnings conference call. Late yesterday, we issued a news release on our results along with our supplemental financial package, including our quarter end investment portfolio. To find copies of any of these documents, please visit our investor website, investors.

Speaker 1

Simfin.com. The shortest route to the information is the quarterly results link in the navigation menu on the far left. On this call, you'll first hear from President and Chief Executive Officer, Steve Spray and then from Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Mike Sewell. After their prepared remarks, investors participating on the call may ask questions. At that time, some responses may be made by others in the room with us, including Executive Chairman, Steve Johnston Chief Investment Officer, Steve Saloria and Cincinnati Insurance's Chief Claims Officer, Mark Shambo and Senior Vice President of Corporate Finance, Theresa Hoffer.

Speaker 1

Please note that some of the matters to be discussed today are forward looking. These forward looking statements involve certain risks and uncertainties. With respect to these risks and uncertainties, we direct your attention to our news release and to our various filings with the SEC. Also, a reconciliation of non GAAP measures was provided with the news release. Statutory accounting data is prepared in accordance with statutory accounting rules therefore is not reconciled to GAAP.

Speaker 1

Now I'll turn over the call to Steve.

Speaker 2

Good morning and thank you for joining us today to hear more about our results. We are pleased with our operating performance for the Q3 1st 9 months of the year. Several metrics show the progress we are making as we work to provide value to shareholders over time and to deliver outstanding service to agencies and their clients through our dedicated associates. Our combined ratio continues to improve Our combined ratio continues to improve, absent the volatility caused by severe weather. While the devastation Hurricane Helene, in particular, inflicted on communities is heartbreaking, our claims associates are working tirelessly to deliver superior service with empathy and care.

Speaker 2

We had another quarter of strong premium growth, bolstered by improved pricing precision and risk segmentation by our underwriters on a policy by policy basis. In addition to another quarter with nice investment income growth, we executed investment portfolio rebalancing to a larger degree than a typical quarter. We believe that effort will produce both near term and long term financial benefits. Net income of $820,000,000 for the Q3 of 2024 included recognition of $645,000,000 on an after tax basis for the increase in fair value of equity securities still held. Non GAAP operating income of $224,000,000 for the 3rd quarter was down $37,000,000 from a year ago, driven by an $86,000,000 increase in after tax catastrophe losses.

Speaker 2

Our 97.4 percent 3rd quarter 2024 property casualty combined ratio was 3.0 percentage points higher than the Q3 of last year and included an increase of 3.9 points for catastrophe losses. Our 86.8 percent accident year 2024 combined ratio before catastrophe losses improved by 0.9 percentage points compared with accident year 2023 for the Q3 and was 0.8 points better on a 9 month basis. We had another quarter of what we believe is profitable premium growth. Agencies representing Cincinnati Insurance again produced a robust amount of new business for us and we continue to appoint agencies where we identify appropriate expansion opportunities. Our underwriters use pricing segmentation by risk plus average price increases along with careful risk selection to help improve our underwriting profitability.

Speaker 2

Estimated average renewal price increases for the 3rd quarter improved incrementally compared with the Q2 of this year. Commercial lines moved a little higher in this high single digit percentage range and excess and surplus lines remained in the high single digit range. Our personal lines segment also moved a little higher with personal auto in the low double digit range and homeowner in the high single digit range. Our consolidated property casualty net written premiums grew 17% for the quarter, including 16% growth in agency renewal premiums and 30% in new business premiums. As I next comment on performance by insurance segment, I'll focus on 3rd quarter premium growth and underwriting profitability compared with a year ago.

Speaker 2

Commercial lines grew net written premiums 11% with an excellent 93.0% combined ratio that improved by 2.2 percentage points, including 1.3 points from lower catastrophe losses. Personal Lines grew net written premiums 29%, including growth in middle market accounts and Cincinnati private client business for our agency's high net worth clients. Its combined ratio was 110.3%, 10.4 percentage points higher than last year, driven by an increase of 12.7 points from higher catastrophe losses. Excess and surplus lines grew net written premiums 23% with a combined ratio of 95.3%. While that's still quite profitable, it's less so than a year ago due to higher catastrophe losses and a modest amount of unfavorable reserve development on prior accident years.

Speaker 2

Both Cincinnati Re and Cincinnati Global were again profitable and continue to reflect our efforts to diversify risk and further improve income stability. Cincinnati Re grew 3rd quarter 2024 net written premiums 5% and had a 95.6% combined ratio, bringing its 9 month combined ratio to a very profitable 81.5 percent. The $38,000,000 of catastrophe losses Cincinnati Re reported for the quarter included approximately $19,000,000 for Hurricane Helene. Cincinnati Global's combined ratio was an outstanding 66.6 percent for the 3rd quarter with 12% growth in net written premiums. Our life insurance subsidiary had another profitable quarter, including net income of $20,000,000 and term life insurance earned premium growth of 4%.

Speaker 2

Before I close my prepared remarks, I'd like to briefly comment on the estimated effects of Hurricane Milton on 4th quarter results. While it's still early, we estimate our pre tax incurred losses will total between $75,000,000 $125,000,000 net of any applicable reinsurance recoveries. Catastrophe losses for direct business written by the Cincinnati Insurance Company represents less than $15,000,000 of that estimate, while Cincinnati Re represents more than half. Now I'll conclude as usual with our primary measure of long term financial performance, the value creation ratio. Our Q3 2024 VCR was 9.0%, bringing the 9 month total to an excellent 17.8%.

Speaker 2

Net income before investment gains or losses for the quarter contributed 1.7%. Higher overall valuation of our investment portfolio and other items contributed 7.3%. Next, Chief Financial Officer, Mike Sewell, will highlight some additional aspects of our financial performance. Thank you, Steve, and thanks to all of you for joining us today. Investment income had another round of strong growth, up 15% for the Q3 of 2024 compared with the same quarter in 2023.

Speaker 2

Dividend income was down 1%, reflecting $959,000,000 of net sales of equity securities during the Q3, primarily from some portfolio rebalancing through trimming or exiting positions of 7 common stocks among our 63 holdings at the beginning of the quarter. As Steve mentioned in our news release, this does not represent a change in our investment approach of holding a significant amount of equities as we work to balance near term income generation with long term book value growth. The large cash balance generated during the Q3 has been reduced and should continue to decline with additional bond purchases during the remainder of the year. Bond interest income grew 21% for the Q3 of this year. Net purchases of fixed maturity securities totaled $672,000,000 for the quarter and $1,400,000,000 for the 1st 9 months of the year.

Speaker 2

The 3rd quarter pretax average yield of 4.8% for the fixed maturity portfolio was up 36 basis points compared with last year. The average pretax yield for the total of purchased taxable and tax exempt bonds during the Q3 of this year was 5.53%. Valuation changes in aggregate for the Q3 were favorable for both our equity portfolio and our bond portfolio. Before tax effects, the net gain was $841,000,000 for the equity portfolio and $411,000,000 for the bond portfolio. At the end of the 3rd quarter, the total investment portfolio net appreciated value was approximately $7,300,000,000 The equity portfolio was in a net gain position of $7,500,000,000 while the fixed maturity portfolio was in a net loss position of $203,000,000 Cash flow in addition to higher bond yields again boosted investment income growth.

Speaker 2

Cash flow from operating activities for the 1st 9 months of 2024 reached $2,000,000,000 up 36% from a year ago. I'll briefly comment on expense management and our efforts to balance expense control with strategic business investments. The Q3 2024 property casualty underwriting expense ratio decrease of 0.2 percentage points was largely due to lower levels of profit sharing commissions for agencies. Moving on to loss reserves. Our approach remains consistent and aims for net amounts in the upper half of the actuarially estimated range of net loss and loss expense reserves.

Speaker 2

As we do each quarter, we consider new information such as paid losses and case reserves. Then we updated estimated ultimate losses and loss expenses by accident year and line of business. For the 1st 9 months of 2024, our net addition to property casualty loss and loss expense reserves was $963,000,000 including $917,000,000 for the IBNR portion. During the Q3, we experienced $71,000,000 of property casualty net favorable reserve development on prior accident years that benefited the combined ratio by 3.2 percentage points. For our commercial casualty line of business, there was no material reserve development for any prior accident year during the quarter.

Speaker 2

On an all lines basis by accident year, net reserve development for the 1st 9 months of 2024 included favorable $326,000,000 for 2023, favorable $55,000,000 for 20 22, favorable $10,000,000 for 'twenty one and an unfavorable $180,000,000 in aggregate for accident years prior to 'twenty one. My final comments pertain to capital management. During the 1st 9 months of 2024, we returned capital to shareholders through $365,000,000 of dividends paid and nearly 1,100,000 shares repurchased at an average price of approximately $112 per share. Earlier this month, another dividend was paid, returning another $120,000,000 or so to shareholders. That payment completed the company's 64th consecutive year of increasing shareholder dividends, a streak we believe is matched by only 7 other publicly traded companies based in the United States.

Speaker 2

We believe our financial flexibility and our financial strength are both in stellar condition. Parent company cash and marketable securities at quarter end exceeded $5,000,000,000 Debt to total capital remained under 10%. And our quarter end book value was at a record high $88.32 per share with nearly $14,000,000,000 of GAAP consolidated shareholders' equity providing plenty of capacity for profitable growth of our insurance operations. Now I'll turn the call back over to Steve. Thanks, Mike.

Speaker 2

The momentum we have right now is powerful. As we put the finishing touches on department plans for next year, you can feel the excitement and see the opportunities that lie ahead in all corners of the company. Agents echo that feeling as they comment on their appreciation for our ability to deliver stability, consistency and financial strength, giving them a first class carrier support their most well managed accounts. Last week, Fitch Ratings Agency agreed, affirming our current financial strength ratings and revising our outlook to positive from stable based on our sustained track record of profitability and proven financial strength. As a reminder, with Mike and me today are Steve Johnston, Steve Saloria, Mark Chambault and Teresa Hoffer.

Speaker 2

Betsy, please open the call for questions.

Operator

We will now begin the question and answer session. The first question today comes from Michael Phillips with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Speaker 3

Thanks. Michael Phillips from Oppenheimer. Appreciate it. Thanks for the time and good morning, everybody. I guess I want to start with the commercial casualty.

Speaker 3

Steve, you mentioned no material favorable PYD there. Last quarter, you had a little bit in the recent accident years of favorable. I said as a backdrop, because if you look at the current accident year there, it's up a bit, and commercial CASI, it gets up almost 6 points. And kind of want to drill into what's driving that. You say in the Q that for commercial lines total there's more IBNR.

Speaker 3

It looks like that might be the case for some other lines. But if

Speaker 2

we can kind of do back

Speaker 3

of the envelope, the higher loss pick for commercial casualty, it seems like it might be more paid activity. I want to see if you can confirm that and maybe what else might be going on in commercial casualty? Thank you.

Speaker 2

Yes. Thanks, Mike. Mike Sewell is going to go ahead and tackle this, and then I may add some commentary at the end. No, I appreciate it, and thanks for the question. So yes, as you already noted that there was no prior accident year that had a material development during this quarter.

Speaker 2

So recent quarters, we've added to where we slowed the release of IBNR reserves as we've reacted to loss payments in case reserve increases that were higher than expected for some accident years related to the commercial casualty line. There has been some higher case incurred losses that were spread across several accident years that was more severity than frequency. But as you're probably

Speaker 3

looking at Page 9 of the

Speaker 2

supplement and you're seeing the losspiktine elevated a little bit, it's really Mike, it's just related to prudent case reserves or prudent reserves that we're adding. There's a lot of uncertainty there. You're seeing a lot of things in the industry that's out there. If I were to take a look at the 9 month compared to 9 month for that loss pick, you're really only about 2 full points higher. We are adding to the IBNR.

Speaker 2

You've seen that on Page 11 of the supplement. And you'll see that the commercial casualty is the largest area that we're adding IBNR. So I'll that's probably a lot of information, but yes, that's the background. Thank you.

Speaker 3

Okay. Thanks. I guess if we stick with that line for a second. Steve, your opening comments didn't seem like there was a much of a change in commentary on renewal price changes. And yet this line saw a pretty good jump in premium growth.

Speaker 3

I'm so curious what's driving that and how we should think about the commercial casualty going forward with top line growth?

Speaker 2

Yes, I think yes, Mike, the pricing there just remains strong. Everything that Mike said, I would I'd probably focus from the pricing standpoint, just the uncertainty around social inflation, legal system abuse, however you want title that, but just uncertainty in general. I think the key with us, and I always go back to this. 1, we're a package writer. We don't write monoline business.

Speaker 2

And 2, our underwriters, whether they're in the field or here in headquarters, are just tackling these accounts risk by risk, 1 by 1. They're using the art of underwriting that we've all grown up with and then the science. I think we're kind of at a nice spot intersection there. And just the way we can segment our book with sophisticated pricing tools, I think there's runway and rate in well, in all lines of business in commercial maybe minus workers' compensation. But general liability and umbrella, certainly, I think there's runway for more rate there.

Speaker 2

And currently, we're getting as we disclosed, we're getting high single digits in the casualty. But again, you got to really that's that point estimate. You really have to look at the just kind of the that average doesn't tell the whole story. You got to look at the whole book and there's a fair amount of our book that we would consider price adequate and then in various levels and tranches where we need more rate. Okay.

Speaker 2

Thank you. I'll follow-up in

Speaker 4

a bit. Thanks so much.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Mike.

Operator

The next question comes from Mike Zaremski with BMO. Please go ahead.

Speaker 5

Thanks. I guess, just as a quick follow-up to the last question and answer on playing offense in commercial casualty and I could see commercial auto too. So is it my understanding correctly that you're clearly playing more offense and feel better even despite the loss ratio in those two lines being booked at not ideal levels because you're just being more conservative in your picks like you have historically. And so as the years unfold, hopefully that conservatism comes back in a good guy through reserve releases over time. Is that am I thinking about it correctly?

Speaker 2

Yes. Mike, let me this is Steve again. Let me try that and then give me a follow-up. First of all, overarching, we feel good about our pricing. Obviously, where we're focused is on perspective pricing or rating periods.

Speaker 2

So we feel good about our pricing, feel good about the team that's executing on that as well. And we look at that state by state. And like I said, risk by risk, by line of business. I would say we're definitely playing offense. We've got $13,800,000,000 of GAAP equity now supporting a little more than $9,000,000,000 of premium.

Speaker 6

I think that puts us in

Speaker 2

an enviable position. As you know, our deep relationships with our agents, we are regularly communicating with them. And I can tell you that the feedback we get from them is one of appreciation for our consistency, our stability, our financial strength. We're playing offense, I think, in all segments and all lines of business. I talk about it a lot when we have these 1 on 1 investor meetings as well, but we've got that proven track record, that proven business model, our field focus, the way we handle claims, our agency focus.

Speaker 2

But over the last 12, 13 years, the biggest improvement that has really driven our confidence in playing offense is that pricing sophistication and segmentation that we've been executing on for a decade plus. But that along with the team that puts those predictive models in play, that just gives me a tremendous amount of confidence in everything we're doing and being able to grow through all market cycles. In personal lines, we're I've talked about this in the past too. I think we're in a once in a lifetime, once in a generation, however you'd like to put it. You could call it hard market.

Speaker 2

I look at it as a market opportunity. And we our ex cat there continues to improve. We're not just that doesn't make us happy. We got to pay cat dollars with real money. Commercial lines or excuse me, personal lines last year had 100.4 combined.

Speaker 2

The 4 years prior to that in a rising cat environment had an all in underwriting profit. So just feel good about, again, all lines of business and all segments. I hope that answers it quick. Okay. I hope that answers it quick.

Speaker 2

Yes.

Speaker 5

Honestly, if you were booking a much better loss ratio in some of those lines, maybe the stock would be up today, but I don't know how much people would some people would believe in it. So it seems like it would be conservative, makes sense. I guess just switching gears. So on the large sell down on the investment portfolio, I think what you're saying is just no real change there due to Steve new leadership or you're just kind of saying if we just do the math on equities as a percentage of shareholders equity ex OCI, we're running well above historical levels. So you're trimming and is that the right way to think about it and will you continue to trim to get to a lower ratio?

Speaker 2

Mike, I'll tackle the first part of that. I can tell you that there is absolutely no change in our philosophy because of the new CEO. But I'll let Steve Saloria kind of dive into the details there for you.

Speaker 4

Hi, Mike. This is Steve Soria. Again, I would agree with what you said. We view it as just standard prudent portfolio management. We were trying to be opportunistic.

Speaker 4

We will periodically trim or prune names in the portfolio for a variety of reasons, managing within our investment policy statement, evaluating stocks on a fundamental basis. And we felt that with that in mind, selling into a strong equity market on a couple of names that had run a bit was again opportunistic. And as we looked at that, we started to look at where to invest those funds, where was the best opportunity? Was it rolling back into a hot market or maybe taking advantage of interest rates that the window may be closing on higher rates? So we started to roll into those, again, opportunistically.

Speaker 4

And as we looked at that, we were looking at tax implications and what booking gains was going to do for us and trying to offset some of those losses. So it was kind of a perfect storm of several different factors that kind of drove us to the scale of where we were. But the typical activity is stuff that we do on a quarterly basis anyway. So we feel we'll revert back to a more normalized activity level.

Speaker 5

Okay. That's helpful, Steve. And maybe lastly, switching to the excess and surplus lines segment, just focusing specifically on the top line growth acceleration trend in recent quarters. I know there's historically been plenty of top line volatility in this segment too and it's a smaller segment. But is there a trend line we should be thinking of or something changing?

Speaker 5

Or I'm not saying we're going to run rate 23% top line growth, but I'm just curious if there's something underlying that we

Speaker 2

should be appreciating. Thanks. Yes. Thanks, Mike. Yes, nothing changing there.

Speaker 2

We're about 90% casualty in our E and S space. You can get some inherent variability or volatility in E and S just in general, as you mentioned, as you know, both with premium and with losses. If you lose a larger account or so that will put pressure quarter to quarter on that net written premium. But I would sum it up to you this way is that we're working on 12 years again of underwriting profit in our E and S company, customary to the way we look at reserving throughout the entire company, we take prudent approach. We are quick to act when we see things.

Speaker 2

And that just gives me a lot of comfort as well. We've got a consistent approach, got a consistent team doing it. As far as the growth goes, I would be consistent there as well. I think we're definitely in a favorable environment, but I think we can grow our E and S company through all environments. I think we're still just scratching the surface with what we can do from an excess and surplus line standpoint.

Speaker 5

Is it worth elaborating on why you think you're just scratching the surface? Is it just you over time get more data and can expand your underwriting appetite or hiring more folks or trying to understand that thing?

Speaker 2

Yes, I think it's yes, that's a good follow-up. I think it's all of the above. We continue to expand our expertise. We continue to expand the team. We continue to expand the products that we look at.

Speaker 2

We're adding more agencies across the entire company that favorably impacts our E and S company as well. So when we look at the business that our agents write, the amount of business that they placed in the E and S space, we can just see tremendous opportunity. And I think our business model, the fact that we deal directly with the retail agents, we've got our own in house brokerage. We can pay we can return more of the compensation directly to our agents. We have direct bill.

Speaker 2

We handle claims with our own people. You get the point that I just think it's an attractive model that we can continue to just expand.

Speaker 5

Thank you.

Operator

The next question comes from Gregory Peters with Raymond James. Please go ahead.

Speaker 6

Good morning, everyone. So kind of, I guess, building a little bit on Mike's question, but more importantly, some comments you made talking about the generational opportunities for growth, I think, in personal lines. Can you give us some perspective on your view on what used to be when you're throwing all the new business on the new business penalty and attending both personal lines and commercial lines. Can you give us a sense of how the profile of your business has changed over the last couple of years? Or is it a geographic change?

Speaker 6

Or just some color on how the company is changing as it grows?

Speaker 2

Yes. I think it's I think yes, that book of business has evolved for sure. 10 years ago, we were 90%, what we would call middle market personal lines. That now, that book has grown considerably as you can see and we're just under 60%, which would be considered private client or high net worth. I think the reason I say once in a lifetime is just there's just so many macro things going on there, Greg, both in the middle market space, primarily around severe convective storm, I'd say in the Midwest.

Speaker 2

Inflation hit that pretty hard as well. The traditional competitors that we had in that marketplace just seemed to be disrupted. Our balance sheet strength allowed us to take advantage of that opportunity. I think one of the big strengths we have in personal lines today, and I'll talk about it a lot, is that we and this is our agency on this. So I think we are considered a premier market, both in the high net worth or private client and in middle market.

Speaker 2

One of the advantages to us is obviously with deep agency relationships, we can be a solution or be more important to each of them with being able to handle middle market and the high net worth, I think in a first class way. Financially, it's giving us some diversification both by the line of business and geographically. High net worth or private client is typically it's property driven, less so auto. Middle market, the exact opposite, auto driven more, less so on the home. High net worth tends to be on the coast.

Speaker 2

We write it everywhere, but it tends to be coastal. Middle market, more the middle of the country. So we just think we're getting a nice mix and diversification across that entire segment. Now on the pricing, yes, I think it's the same confidence that I talked about with Mike on commercial lines. It's just we've got an experienced team with a ton of expertise in building these models across the entire business.

Speaker 2

New business penalty, I don't believe in a new business penalty. I think you've got to write every risk at the right rate on a risk adjusted basis. And I'm just confident in where our pricing is going on a prospective basis. I hope that answers your question.

Speaker 6

Yes, it does. I mean, one of the you were mentioning the opportunities with severe convective storms, you're talking about E and S. I just have this, I guess, this natural pivot that I think you're growing your exposures like in California, Texas and Florida, maybe a little bit in the Northeast versus other areas of the country. But I guess that's what I was kind of thinking about because you talked about your losses to Milton and it doesn't seem to be as large as I guess it could have potentially been, but maybe our exposures are running in different areas of the state in Florida.

Speaker 2

Yes. Our Florida new business in personal lines is down little over $4,000,000 year over year. But let me make sure I'm clear on that as well. It's not just the rate that we're driving, particularly in the middle market, severe convective storm, exposed property. Terms and conditions.

Speaker 2

Terms and conditions are probably equally as important there, whether it be wind and hail deductibles, ACV or roof schedules. And then when you speak specifically to E and S on the personal line side, Greg, yes, that is predominantly right now for us, that's California home. We've got our E and S capability up and running in 10 plus states, most of those coastal. But as an example, even in Florida, we are writing new business on an E and S basis. But we just haven't seen that we feel that the pricing or the terms and conditions that we can get are as attractive as we would need.

Speaker 2

So we'll continue to be conservative there.

Speaker 6

Fair enough. I just pivot to another company question on the agents. I view them as a critical strength of your company, the agent relationships. Can you talk to us as you look out to next year, what you think the growth of the agency force might look like or the appointments that you make in 2025? Or do you have a target?

Speaker 6

Or how do you sort of approach that, please?

Speaker 2

Yes. We're not making public, Greg. Our goal, excuse me, for agencies for next year. What I can tell you is that we are committed to expanding that distribution. We think there's plenty of opportunity without diluting the franchise.

Speaker 2

We will not this is kind of my thought, this is the direction we're heading is we will not dilute the franchise by the number of agencies we appoint. What we have to focus on is making sure that we continue to do business with the most professional and candidly those who are most aligned just with the way we do business locally, fast, fair, handling business at the local level. You're right, the agency relationships are key to everything we do. I think it's our differentiator. It's something that we're going to continue to stay focused on.

Speaker 2

Doing business locally is a big piece of that. But you can expect us to continue to expand the distribution, I would say, roughly at a clip that you've seen us this year and over the last couple of years.

Speaker 6

Fair enough. Thank you for answering my questions.

Speaker 2

Yes, absolutely. Thank you for the questions.

Operator

The next question comes from Jing Li with KBW. Please go ahead.

Speaker 7

Hi, thank you for taking my question. I just have a question on E and S unfavorable development. I know it's pretty small, but appreciate if you can add some colors on that.

Speaker 2

Jing, yes, the I think you were referring to the unfavorable development on the E and S casualty. And I would just say for you there, it's just that we saw case incurred losses that are emerging at amounts higher than we expected. Like I mentioned earlier, that business, that book of business is 90% casualty. It's E and S, so it's got inherent volatility in it, inherent variability. But we've got a great track record of profitability in our E and S company.

Speaker 2

And we'll just continue to stay prudent like we always have company wide with the reserves. So that's about all I'd have to add on unfavorable in the quarter for E and S.

Speaker 7

Got it. Thank you. I have a follow-up on the personal auto and not personal lines. So the rate accelerated from high single digit to low double digit. Just curious about your view to reach rate adequacy.

Speaker 7

Do you think that you still need double digit 2025 and beyond?

Speaker 2

Yes. I wouldn't necessarily be able to give you Jing, the kind of the run rate. All I can tell you is that we've still got a lot of rate earning into the book. And I think just with the all the things that we've talked about here, which is with the changing weather patterns, I think there's still runway for rate across the entire personal lines book. We and I would say this, again, the key for us is looking at it prospectively, and we do feel on a prospective basis that our rates in personal lines are ahead of loss cost trends.

Speaker 7

Got it. Thank you.

Speaker 2

Thank you,

Operator

Jing. The next question comes from Grace Carter with Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Speaker 8

Hi, everyone. I realize these are smaller segments, but the core loss ratio ticked up quite a bit versus recent history in both other commercial and other personal. So I was hoping that you could kind of give us an update on what you're seeing there and if there's any sort of entry or movement in there and if it's just kind of related to some of the comments we've heard across the industry on pressure and long tail lines. Thank you.

Speaker 2

Yes, Grace, thank you. You alluded to it, there's smaller premiums there. You're going to have I think it's just a lot of inherent variability or volatility in those lines. As an example, in personal lines, it could be a little watercraft that you're seeing there in our book. But we do a deep dive on every line of business on a regular basis.

Speaker 2

And there's nothing there that points us in the direction of anything to be concerned about as far as geographic or agency or line of business. So I think that's about all I'd have to add on that for you, Grace.

Speaker 8

Okay. Thank you. And I guess I had another question on commercial casualty. And I think usually, you all have said that historically you see, the core loss ratio higher in core 1 or in the Q1 relative to the last three quarters of the year just given higher uncertainty from the newness of the accident year. Guess I'm just kind of trying to understand better like what exactly you all saw this quarter that resulted in Q3 kind of moving above Q1 and just kind of trying to think about if maybe a year to date number is the best way to think about sort of where we should see that trending going forward or just kind of any sort of color you can give on whether or not the Q3 level might be kind of the new run rate?

Speaker 8

Thank you.

Speaker 2

Yes. Grace, you're absolutely right. We typically every quarter that we get more data, more information, you just refine those picks even more. I think what you've got going on in commercial casualty is just the macro things that Mike alluded to earlier. Litigation costs up, the number of claims that are turning into litigation, social inflation, the legal system abuse, 3rd party litigation funding, it's all just really kind of front of that line of business industry wide, I think, a little upside down.

Speaker 2

So I think that's why you're seeing that in the Q3, it's just we're really trying to be prudent on that line of business just because the amount of uncertainty there has stayed pretty consistent. So as you know, we've got 30 plus years of favorable development and we do that through a consistent process, consistent people and acting quickly when we see things that just causes concern. But there's nothing specific in that Q3 other than I would say macro uncertainty.

Operator

Thank you.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Grace.

Operator

This concludes our question and answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Steve Spray for any closing remarks.

Speaker 2

Well, thank you all for joining us today. We look forward to speaking with you again on the Q4 call. Hope everybody has a nice weekend.

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