Cincinnati Financial Q3 2024 Earnings Report

Cincinnati Financial EPS Results

• Actual EPS: $1.42
• Consensus EPS: $1.46
• Beat/Miss: Missed by -$0.04
• One Year Ago EPS: $1.66

Cincinnati Financial Revenue Results

• Actual Revenue: $2.20 billion
• Expected Revenue: $2.24 billion
• Beat/Miss: Missed by -$42.71 million
• YoY Revenue Growth: +21.50%

Cincinnati Financial Announcement Details

• Quarter: Q3 2024
• Date: 10/24/2024
• Time: After Market Closes
• Conference Call Date: Friday, October 25, 2024
• Conference Call Time: 11:00AM ET

Cincinnati Financial (NASDAQ:CINF) is an insurance holding company headquartered in Fairfield, Ohio. Founded in 1950 by four independent insurance agents, the company markets its products primarily through a network of independent agencies.

Its principal business is property and casualty insurance, including commercial coverage for businesses, workers’ compensation, commercial auto, homeowners insurance, personal auto insurance and other personal lines. The company also offers excess and surplus lines coverage for specialized or higher-risk exposures. Through its Cincinnati Life Insurance Company subsidiary, it provides life insurance, annuities and related financial products.

Cincinnati Financial serves individuals and businesses across much of the United States, with insurance operations concentrated in the property and casualty markets. The company also manages an investment portfolio associated with its insurance operations. Steven J. Johnston serves as president and chief executive officer.

Cincinnati Financial Q3 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Key Takeaways

• Consolidated property casualty net written premiums grew 17% year-over-year in Q3, including 11% growth in commercial lines, 29% in personal lines and 23% in excess and surplus lines.
• The Q3 property casualty combined ratio was 97.4%, up 3.0 points from last year including catastrophe losses, while the accident-year ex-catastrophe combined ratio improved 0.9 points to 86.8%.
• The equity portfolio generated an after-tax $645 million fair value gain in Q3, bond interest income rose 21% with a 4.8% average yield, and the company added $672 million of fixed maturities to the portfolio.
• The company estimates $75–125 million of pre-tax incurred losses in Q4 net of reinsurance for Hurricane Milton, with Cincinnati Re absorbing over half and direct business losses under $15 million.
• Through the first nine months, Cincinnati Financial returned capital with $365 million of dividends and 1.1 million shares repurchased, paid another $120 million dividend in Q4 and ended Q3 with a record $88.32 book value per share.

Presentation

[Operator]

Good day, and welcome to the Cincinnati Financial Corporation Third Quarter twenty twenty-four Earnings Conference Call. All participants will be in a listen-only mode. Should you need assistance, please signal a conference specialist by pressing the star key followed by zero. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. To ask a question, you may press Star, then One on a touch-tone phone. To withdraw your question, please press Star, then Two. Please note, this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Dennis McDaniel, Investor Relations Officer. Please go ahead.

[Dennis McDaniel, Head of Investor Relations at Cincinnati Financial Corporation]

Hello, this is Dennis McDaniel at Cincinnati Financial. Thank you for joining us for our third quarter twenty twenty-four earnings conference call. Late yesterday, we issued a news release on our results, along with our supplemental financial package, including our quarter end investment portfolio. To find copies of any of these documents, please visit our investor website, investors.cinfin.com. The shortest route to the information is the Quarterly Results link in the navigation menu on the far left. On this call, you'll first hear from President and Chief Executive Officer, Steve Sprague, and then from Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Mike Sewell. After their prepared remarks, investors participating on the call may ask questions.

[Dennis McDaniel, Head of Investor Relations at Cincinnati Financial Corporation]

At that time, some responses may be made by others in the room with us, including Executive Chairman, Steve Johnston, Chief Investment Officer, Steve Soloria, and Cincinnati Insurance's Chief Claims Officer, Mark Shambo, and Senior Vice President of Corporate Finance, Theresa Hoffer. Please note that some of the matters to be discussed today are forward-looking. These forward-looking statements involve certain risks and uncertainties. With respect to these risks and uncertainties, we direct your attention to our news release and to our various filings with the SEC. Also, our reconciliation of non-GAAP measures was provided with a news release. Statutory accounting data is prepared in accordance with statutory accounting rules and therefore is not reconciled to GAAP. Now I'll turn over the call to Steve.

[Steve Sprague, CEO at Cincinnati Financial Corporation]

Good morning, and thank you for joining us today to hear more about our results. We are pleased with our operating performance for the third quarter and first nine months of the year. Several metrics show the progress we are making as we work to provide value to shareholders over time, and to deliver outstanding service to agencies and their clients through our dedicated associates. Our combined ratio continues to improve, absent the volatility caused by severe weather. While the devastation Hurricane Helene, in particular, inflicted on communities is heartbreaking, our claims associates are working tirelessly to deliver superior service with empathy and care. We had another quarter of strong premium growth, bolstered by improved pricing precision and risk segmentation by our underwriters on a policy-by-policy basis.

[Steve Sprague, CEO at Cincinnati Financial Corporation]

In addition to another quarter with nice investment income growth, we executed investment portfolio rebalancing to a larger degree than a typical quarter. We believe that effort will produce both near-term and long-term financial benefits. Net income of $820 million for the third quarter of 2024 included recognition of $645 million on an after-tax basis for the increase in fair value of equity securities still held. Non-GAAP operating income of $224 million for the third quarter was down $37 million from a year ago, driven by an $86 million increase in after-tax catastrophe losses. Our 97.4% third quarter 2024 property casualty combined ratio was 3.0 percentage points higher than the third quarter of last year and included an increase of 3.9 points for catastrophe losses.

[Steve Sprague, CEO at Cincinnati Financial Corporation]

Our 86.8% accident year 2024 combined ratio before catastrophe losses improved by 0.9 percentage points compared with accident year 2023 for the third quarter, and was 0.8 points better on a nine-month basis. We had another quarter of what we believe is profitable premium growth. Agencies representing Cincinnati Insurance again produced a robust amount of new business for us, and we continue to appoint agencies where we identify appropriate expansion opportunities. Our underwriters use pricing segmentation by risk, plus average price increases, along with careful risk selection to help improve our underwriting profitability. Estimated average renewal price increases for the third quarter improved incrementally compared with the second quarter of this year. Commercial lines moved a little higher in this high single-digit % range, and excess and surplus lines remained in the high single-digit % range.

[Steve Sprague, CEO at Cincinnati Financial Corporation]

Our personal line segment also moved a little higher, with personal auto in the low double-digit range and homeowner in the high single-digit range. Our consolidated property casualty net written premiums grew 17% for the quarter, including 16% growth in agency renewal premiums and 30% in new business premiums. As I next comment on performance by insurance segment, I'll focus on third quarter premium growth and underwriting profitability compared with a year ago. Commercial lines grew net written premiums 11%, with an excellent 93.0% combined ratio that improved by 2.2 percentage points, including 1.3 points from lower catastrophe losses. Personal lines grew net written premiums 29%, including growth in middle market accounts and Cincinnati Private Client business for our agency's high net worth clients.

[Steve Sprague, CEO at Cincinnati Financial Corporation]

Its combined ratio was 110.3%, 10.4 percentage points higher than last year, driven by an increase of 12.7 points from higher catastrophe losses. Excess and surplus lines grew net written premiums 23%, with a combined ratio of 95.3%. While that's still quite profitable, it's less so than a year ago, due to higher catastrophe losses and a modest amount of unfavorable reserve development on prior accident years. Both Cincinnati Re and Cincinnati Global were again profitable and continue to reflect our efforts to diversify risk and further improve income stability. Cincinnati Re grew third quarter 2024 net written premiums 5% and had a 95.6% combined ratio, bringing its nine-month combined ratio to a very profitable 81.5%.

[Steve Sprague, CEO at Cincinnati Financial Corporation]

The $38 million of catastrophe losses Cincinnati Re reported for the quarter included approximately $19 million for Hurricane Helene. Cincinnati Global's combined ratio was an outstanding 66.6% for the third quarter, with 12% growth in net written premiums. Our life insurance subsidiary had another profitable quarter, including net income of $20 million and term life insurance earned premium growth of 4%. Before I close my prepared remarks, I'd like to briefly comment on the estimated effects of Hurricane Milton on fourth quarter results. While it's still early, we estimate our pre-tax incurred losses will total between $75 million and $125 million, net of any applicable reinsurance recoveries.

[Steve Sprague, CEO at Cincinnati Financial Corporation]

Catastrophe losses for direct business written by The Cincinnati Insurance Company represents less than $15 million of that estimate, while Cincinnati Re represents more than half. Now, I'll conclude, as usual, with our primary measure of long-term financial performance, the value creation ratio. Our third quarter 2024 VCR was 9.0%, bringing the nine-month total to an excellent 17.8%. Net income before investment gains or losses for the quarter contributed 1.7%. Higher overall valuation of our investment portfolio and other items contributed 7.3%. Next, Chief Financial Officer Mike Sewell will highlight some additional aspects of our financial performance.

[Mike Sewell, EVP and CFO at Cincinnati Financial Corporation]

Thank you, Steve, and thanks to all of you for joining us today. Investment income had another round of strong growth, up 15% for the third quarter of 2024, compared with the same quarter in 2023. Dividend income was down 1%, reflecting $959 million of net sales of equity securities during the third quarter, primarily from some portfolio rebalancing through trimming or exiting positions of 7 common stocks among our 63 holdings at the beginning of the quarter. As Steve mentioned in our news release, this does not represent a change in our investment approach of holding a significant amount of equities as we work to balance near-term income generation with long-term book value growth. The large cash balance generated during the third quarter has been reduced and should continue to decline, with additional bond purchases during the remainder of the year.

[Mike Sewell, EVP and CFO at Cincinnati Financial Corporation]

Bond interest income grew 21% for the third quarter of this year. Net purchases of fixed maturity securities totaled $672 million for the quarter, and $1.4 billion for the first nine months of the year. The third quarter pre-tax average yield of 4.8% for the fixed maturity portfolio was up thirty-six basis points compared with last year. The average pre-tax yield for the total of purchased taxable and tax-exempt bonds during the third quarter of this year was 5.53%. Valuation changes in aggregate for the third quarter were favorable for both our equity portfolio and our bond portfolio. Before tax effects, the net gain was $841 million for the equity portfolio and $411 million for the bond portfolio.

[Mike Sewell, EVP and CFO at Cincinnati Financial Corporation]

At the end of the third quarter, the total investment portfolio net appreciated value was approximately $7.3 billion. The equity portfolio was in a net gain position of $7.5 billion, while the fixed maturity portfolio was in a net loss position of $203 million. Cash flow, in addition to higher bond yields, again boosted investment income growth. Cash flow from operating activities for the first nine months of 2024 reached $2 billion, up 36% from a year ago. I'll briefly comment on expense management and our efforts to balance expense control with strategic business investments.... The third quarter 2024 property casualty underwriting expense ratio decrease of 0.2 percentage points was largely due to lower levels of profit sharing commissions for agencies.

[Mike Sewell, EVP and CFO at Cincinnati Financial Corporation]

Moving on to loss reserves, our approach remains consistent and aims for net amounts in the upper half of the actuarially estimated range of net loss and loss expense reserves. As we do each quarter, we consider new information, such as paid losses and case reserves. Then we updated estimated ultimate losses and loss expenses by accident year and line of business. For the first nine months of 2024, our net addition to property casualty loss and loss expense reserves was $963 million, including $917 million for the IBNR portion. During the third quarter, we experienced $71 million of property casualty net favorable reserve development on prior accident years that benefited the combined ratio by 3.2 percentage points. For our commercial casualty line of business, there was no material reserve development for any prior accident year during the quarter.

[Mike Sewell, EVP and CFO at Cincinnati Financial Corporation]

On an all-lines basis by accident year, net reserve development for the first nine months of 2024 included favorable $326 million for 2023, favorable $55 million for 2022, favorable $10 million for 2021, and an unfavorable $180 million in aggregate for accident years prior to 2021. My final comments pertain to capital management. During the first nine months of 2024, we returned capital to shareholders through $365 million of dividends paid and nearly 1.1 million shares repurchased at an average price of approximately $112 per share. Earlier this month, another dividend was paid, returning another $120 million or so to shareholders.

[Mike Sewell, EVP and CFO at Cincinnati Financial Corporation]

That payment completed the company's sixty-fourth consecutive year of increasing shareholder dividends, a streak we believe is matched by only seven other publicly traded companies based in the United States. We believe our financial flexibility and our financial strength are both in stellar condition. Parent company cash and marketable securities at quarter end exceeded $5 billion. Debt to total capital remained under 10%, and our quarter-end book value was at a record high, $88.32 per share, with nearly $14 billion of GAAP consolidated shareholders' equity, providing plenty of capacity for profitable growth of our insurance operations. Now I'll turn the call back over to Steve.

[Steve Sprague, CEO at Cincinnati Financial Corporation]

Thanks, Mike. The momentum we have right now is powerful. As we put the finishing touches on department plans for next year, you can feel the excitement and see the opportunities that lie ahead in all corners of the company. Agents echo that feeling as they comment on their appreciation for our ability to deliver stability, consistency, and financial strength, giving them a first-class carrier to support their most well-managed accounts. Last week, Fitch Ratings Agency agreed, affirming our current financial strength ratings and revising our outlook to positive from stable based on our sustained track record of profitability and proven financial strength. As a reminder, with Mike and me today are Steve Johnston, Steve Soloria, Mark Shambo, and Teresa Hoffer. Betsy, please open the call for questions.

[Operator]

We will now begin the question-and-answer session. To ask a question, you may press Star, then one on your touch-tone phone. If you are using a speakerphone, please pick up your handset before pressing the keys. If at any time your question has been addressed and you would like to withdraw your question, please press Star then two. At this time, we will pause momentarily to assemble our roster. The first question today comes from Michael Phillips with Oppenheimer. Please go ahead.

[Michael Phillips, Analyst at Oppenheimer]

Thanks. Michael Phillips from Oppenheimer. I appreciate it. Thanks for the time, and good morning, everybody. I want to start with the commercial casualty. Steve, you mentioned no material favorable PYD there. In the last quarter, you had a little bit in the recent accident years that was favorable. I say as a backdrop, 'cause if you look at the current accident year there, it's up a bit, and commercial casualty, it's up almost six points, and kind of want to drill into what's driving that. You say in the Q that for commercial lines total, there's more IBNR.

[Michael Phillips, Analyst at Oppenheimer]

It looks like that might be the case for some other lines, but if we can kind of do back of the envelope, the higher loss pick for commercial casualty seems like it might be more paid activity. I want to see if you can confirm that and maybe what else might be going on in commercial casualty. Thank you.

[Steve Sprague, CEO at Cincinnati Financial Corporation]

Yeah. Thanks, Mike. Mike Sewell is gonna

[Steve Sprague, CEO at Cincinnati Financial Corporation]

Go ahead and tackle this, and then I may add some commentary at the end.

[Mike Sewell, EVP and CFO at Cincinnati Financial Corporation]

No, I appreciate it, and thanks for the, thanks for the question. So, yeah, as you already noted, that, you know, there was no prior accident year that had a material development during this quarter. So, recent quarters, you know, we've added to, or we slowed the release of IBNR reserves as we've reacted to loss payments and case reserve increases that were higher than expected for some accident years related to the commercial casualty line. You know, there has been some higher case incurred losses that were spread across several accident years that was more severity than frequency.

[Mike Sewell, EVP and CFO at Cincinnati Financial Corporation]

But, you know, as you're probably looking at page nine of the supplement and you're seeing the loss pick being elevated a little bit, you know, it's really, Mike, it's just related to prudent case reserves or prudent reserves that we're adding. There's a lot of uncertainty there. You know, you're seeing a lot of things in the industry that's out there. You know, if I were to take a look at the nine month compared to nine month for that loss pick, you're really only about two full points higher. You know, we are adding to the IBNR. You've seen that on page eleven of the supplement. And you'll see that the commercial casualty is the largest area that we're adding IBNR.

[Mike Sewell, EVP and CFO at Cincinnati Financial Corporation]

That's probably a lot of information, but yeah, that's the background. Thank you.

[Michael Phillips, Analyst at Oppenheimer]

Okay, thanks. I guess if we stick with that line for a second, and Steve, your opening comments didn't seem like there was much of a change in commentary on renewal price changes. And yet this line saw a pretty good jump in premium growth. I'm so curious what's driving that and how we should think about the commercial casualty going forward with top-line growth.

[Steve Sprague, CEO at Cincinnati Financial Corporation]

Yeah, I think. Yeah, Mike, the pricing there just remains strong. Everything that Mike said, I'd probably focus from the pricing standpoint, just the uncertainty around social inflation, legal system abuse, however you wanna title that, but just uncertainty in general. I think the key with us, and I always go back to this, one, we're a package writer, we don't write monoline business. And two, our underwriters, whether they're in the field or here in headquarters, are just tackling these accounts risk by risk. One by one, they're using, you know, the art of underwriting that we've all grown up with, and then the science. And I think we're kind of at a nice spot, the intersection there.

[Steve Sprague, CEO at Cincinnati Financial Corporation]

And just the way we can segment our book with sophisticated pricing tools, I think there's runway and rate in, well, in all lines of business, in commercial, maybe minus workers' compensation. But general liability and umbrella, certainly, I think there's runway for more rate there. And currently, we're getting, as we disclose, we're getting high single digits in the casualty. But again, you got to really, that's that point estimate. You really have to look at the, you know, just kind of the. That average doesn't tell the whole story. You got to look at the whole book, and there's, you know, there's a fair amount of our book that we would consider price adequate, and then in various levels and tranches, where we need more rate.

[Michael Phillips, Analyst at Oppenheimer]

Okay. Thank you. I'll follow up in a bit. Thank you so much.

[Steve Sprague, CEO at Cincinnati Financial Corporation]

Thanks, Mike.

[Operator]

The next question comes from Mike Zaremski with BMO. Please go ahead.

[Mike Zarembski, Analyst at BMO]

Hey, thanks. I guess just as a quick follow-up to the last question and answer on playing offense in commercial casualty, and I could see commercial auto too. So is it my understanding correctly that, you know, you're clearly playing more offense and feel better, even despite the loss ratio in those two lines being booked at not, you know, not ideal levels because you're just being more conservative in your picks, like you have historically, and so as you know, as the years unfold, hopefully that conservatism comes back in a good way through reserve releases over time? I don't-- Is that-- Am I thinking about it correctly?

[Steve Sprague, CEO at Cincinnati Financial Corporation]

Yeah. Yeah, Mike, let me. This is Steve again. Let me try that, and then give me a follow-up. You know, first of all, I've overarching, we feel good about our pricing. Obviously, where we're focused is on prospective, you know, pricing or rating periods. So we feel good about our pricing, feel good about the team that's executing on that as well. And we look at that state by state, and like I said, risk by risk, by line of business. I would say we're definitely playing offense. We've got $13.8 billion of GAAP equity now, supporting a little more than $9 billion of premium. I think that puts us in an enviable position. We, you know, as you know, our deep relationships with our agents, we are regularly communicating with them.

[Steve Sprague, CEO at Cincinnati Financial Corporation]

You know, I can tell you that the feedback we get from them is one of appreciation for our consistency, our stability, our financial strength. We're playing... Yeah, we're playing offense, I think, in all segments and all lines of business. You know, we've you know, I talk about it a lot when we have these one-on-one investor meetings as well, but we've got that proven track record, that proven business model, our field focus, the way we handle claims, our agency focus. But over the last twelve, thirteen years, the biggest improvement that has really driven our confidence in playing offense is that pricing sophistication and segmentation that we've been executing on for a decade plus.

[Steve Sprague, CEO at Cincinnati Financial Corporation]

But that, along with the team that puts those predictive models in play, that just gives me a tremendous amount of confidence in everything we're doing and being able to grow through all market cycles. You know, in personal lines, we're. I've talked about this in the past, too. I think we're in a once-in-a-lifetime, once-in-a-generation, however you'd like to put it. You could call it a hard market. I look at it as a market opportunity. And, you know, our ex cat there continues to improve. We're not just, you know, that doesn't make us happy. We got to pay cat dollars with real money. You know, commercial lines, or excuse me, personal lines, last year, had a 100.4 combined. The four years prior to that, in a rising cat environment, had an all-in underwriting profit.

[Steve Sprague, CEO at Cincinnati Financial Corporation]

So, just feel good about, again, all lines of business and all segments.

[Mike Zarembski, Analyst at BMO]

Okay.

[Steve Sprague, CEO at Cincinnati Financial Corporation]

I hope that answers it clearly. Yeah.

[Mike Zarembski, Analyst at BMO]

Yeah. I, you know, honestly, if you, if you were booking a much better loss ratio in some of those lines, maybe the stock would be up today, but I don't know how much people would—some people would believe in it. So it seems like it being conservative makes sense. I guess, just switching gears, so on, on the large sell-down on the investment portfolio, you know, I think you—what you're saying is just no real change there due to, you know, Steve, new leadership, or you're just kind of saying, if we just do the math on equities as a percentage of shareholders' equity, ex AOCI, you know, we're running well above historical levels, so you're trimming, and is that the right way to think about it?

[Mike Zarembski, Analyst at BMO]

Will you continue to trim to get to a lower ratio?

[Steve Sprague, CEO at Cincinnati Financial Corporation]

Mike, I'll tackle the first part of that. I can tell you that there is absolutely no change in our philosophy because of the new CEO. But I'll let Steve Soloria kind of dive into the details there for you.

[Steve Soloria, CIO at Cincinnati Financial Corporation]

Hi, Mike, this is Steve Soloria. Again, I would agree with what you said. We view it as just standard, prudent portfolio management. We were trying to be opportunistic. You know, we will periodically trim or prune names in the portfolio for a variety of reasons, managing within our investment policy statement, evaluating stocks on a fundamental basis. And we felt that, you know, with that in mind, you know, selling into a strong equity market on a couple of names that had run a bit was again, opportunistic. And as we looked at that, we started to look at where to invest those funds. You know, where was the best opportunity? Was it rolling back into a hot market or maybe taking advantage of interest rates that, you know, the window may be closing on higher rates?

[Steve Soloria, CIO at Cincinnati Financial Corporation]

So we started to roll into those, again, opportunistically. And as we looked at that, we were looking at tax implications and what booking gains was gonna do for us and trying to offset some of those losses. So it was kind of a perfect storm of several different factors that kind of drove us to the scale of where we were. But the typical activity is stuff that we do on a quarterly basis anyway. So we feel we'll revert back to a more normalized activity level.

[Mike Zarembski, Analyst at BMO]

Okay, that's helpful, Steve. And let me lastly switch to the excess and surplus lines segment, just focusing specifically on the top-line growth acceleration trend in recent quarters. I know there's historically been plenty of top-line volatility in this segment, too, and it's a smaller segment, but is there a trend line we should be thinking of or something changing? Or, you know, I'm not saying we're going to run-rate 23% top-line growth, but just curious if there's something underlying that we should be appreciating. Thanks.

[Steve Sprague, CEO at Cincinnati Financial Corporation]

Yeah, thanks, Mike. Yeah, nothing changing there. You know, we're about 90% casualty in our E&S space. You can get some, you can get some inherent variability or volatility in E&S, just in general, as you mentioned, as you know, both with premium and with losses. You know, if you, you know, you lose a larger account or so, that'll put pressure quarter to quarter on that net written premium. But I would sum it up to you this way, is that, you know, we're working on 12 years, again, of underwriting profit in our E&S company. You know, customary to the way we look at reserving throughout the entire company, we take prudent approach. We are quick to act when we see things, and that just gives me a lot of comfort as well.

[Steve Sprague, CEO at Cincinnati Financial Corporation]

We've got a consistent approach, got a consistent team doing it. As far as the growth goes, I would be consistent there as well. I think we're definitely in a favorable environment, but I think we can grow our E&S company through all environments. I think we're still just scratching the surface with what we can do, from an excess and surplus line standpoint.

[Mike Zarembski, Analyst at BMO]

Is it worth elaborating on why you think you're just scratching the surface? Is it just, you know, over time, get more data and can expand your underwriting appetite or hiring more folks, or? Trying to understand that. Thanks.

[Steve Sprague, CEO at Cincinnati Financial Corporation]

Yeah, I think. Yeah, yeah, that's a good follow-up. I think, it's all of the above. We continue to expand our expertise. We continue to expand the team, we continue to expand the products that, that we look at. We're adding more agencies across the, you know, the entire company. That favorably impacts our E&S company as well. So, and when we look at the business that our agents write, the amount of business that they place in the E&S space, we can just see tremendous opportunity. And I think our business model, you know, the fact that we deal directly with the retail agents, we've got our own in-house brokerage. You know, we can pay, you know, we can return more of the compensation directly to our agents. We have direct bill. We handle claims, with our own people.

[Steve Sprague, CEO at Cincinnati Financial Corporation]

You get the point that, I just think it's an attractive model that we can continue to just expand.

[Mike Zarembski, Analyst at BMO]

Thank you.

[Operator]

The next question comes from Gregory Peters with Raymond James. Please go ahead.

[Gregory Peters, Analyst at Raymond James]

Good morning, everyone. So, kind of, I guess, building a little bit on Mike's question, but more importantly, some comments you made talking about the generational opportunities for growth, I think, in personal lines. Can you, can you give us some perspective on your view on, you know, what used to be when you're throwing all the new business on, and the quote-unquote, "new business penalty," and attendant with both personal lines and commercial lines, can you give us a sense of, of how the, the profile of your business has changed over the last couple of years? Or is it a geographic change, or, just some color on how the company is changing as it grows?

[Steve Sprague, CEO at Cincinnati Financial Corporation]

Yeah, I think it's, you know, I think, yeah, that book of business has evolved for sure. You know, ten years ago, we were 90% what we would call middle market personal lines. That now, that book has grown considerably, as you can see, and we're just under 60%, which would be considered, private client or high net worth. I think the reason I say once in a lifetime is just, there's just so many macro things going on there, Greg, both in the middle market space, primarily around severe convective storm, I'd say in the Midwest. You know, inflation hit that pretty hard as well. The traditional competitors that we had in that marketplace just seemed to be disrupted. Our balance sheet strength allowed us to take advantage of that opportunity.

[Steve Sprague, CEO at Cincinnati Financial Corporation]

I think one of the big strengths we have in personal lines today, and I'll talk about it a lot, is that. And this is our agents telling us this. I think we are considered a premier market, both in the high net worth or private client and in middle market. One of the advantages to us is, obviously, with deep agency relationships, we can be a solution or being more important to each of them, with being able to handle middle market and the high net worth, I think, in a first-class way. Financially, it's giving us some diversification, both by the line of business and geographically. You know, high net worth or private client is typically, you know, it's property driven, less so auto. Middle market, the exact opposite. Auto driven, more, you know, less so on the home.

[Steve Sprague, CEO at Cincinnati Financial Corporation]

High net worth tends to be on the coasts. We write it everywhere, but it tends to be coastal. Middle market, more the middle of the country. So we just think we're getting a nice, mix and diversification across that entire segment. Now, on the pricing, yeah, I think it's the same confidence that I talked about with Mike, on commercial lines. It's just we've got an experienced, team with a ton of expertise in building these models across the entire business. New business penalty, you know, I don't believe in a new business penalty. I think you've got to write every risk, at the right rate on a risk-adjusted basis. And, you know, I'm just confident in where our pricing is going on a prospective basis. I hope that answers-

[Gregory Peters, Analyst at Raymond James]

Okay. Yeah, it, it does. It does. I mean, I. One of the. You know, you were mentioning, you know, the opportunities with severe convective storms. You're talking about E&S. I just have this, I guess, this natural pivot that I think you're, you're growing your exposures, like in California, Texas, and Florida, maybe a little bit in the Northeast versus other areas of the country. But, yeah, I guess that's what I was kind of thinking about, because you talked about your, your losses to Milton, and it doesn't seem to be as large as, I guess, it could have potentially been, but, you know, maybe your exposures are running in different areas of the state in Florida.

[Steve Sprague, CEO at Cincinnati Financial Corporation]

Yeah. You know, our Florida new business in personal lines is down a little over $4 million year over year. But let me make sure I'm clear on that as well. You know, it's not just the rate that we're driving, particularly in the middle market, severe convective storm exposed property. Terms and conditions are probably equally as important there, whether it be wind and hail deductibles, ACV or roof schedules. And then when you speak specifically to E&S on the personal line side, Greg, yeah, that is predominantly right now for us, that's California home. We've got our E&S capability up and running in 10 plus states, most of those coastal. But as an example, even in Florida, we're writing new business on an E&S basis.

[Steve Sprague, CEO at Cincinnati Financial Corporation]

But we just haven't seen. We feel that the pricing or the terms and conditions that we can get are as attractive as we would need, so we'll continue to be conservative there.

[Gregory Peters, Analyst at Raymond James]

Fair enough. I just pivot to another, you know, company question on, you know, the agents. I view them as a critical strength of your company, the agent relationships. Can you talk to us as you look out to next year, you know, what you think the growth of the agency force might look like or the appointments that you make in twenty-five? Or do you have a target, or how do you sort of approach that, please?

[Steve Sprague, CEO at Cincinnati Financial Corporation]

Yeah, we're not, we're not making public, Greg, our goal, excuse me, for agencies for next year. What I can tell you is that we are committed to expanding that distribution. We think there's plenty of opportunity without, quote, unquote, "diluting the franchise." We will not, this is kind of my thought, and this is the direction we're, we're heading, is we will not dilute the franchise by the number of agencies we appoint. What we have to focus on is making sure that we continue to do business with the most professional, and candidly, those who are most aligned just with the way we do business, locally, fast, fair, you know, handling business at the local level. You're right. The agency relationships are key to everything we do. I think it's our differentiator. It's something that we're going to continue to stay focused on.

[Steve Sprague, CEO at Cincinnati Financial Corporation]

Doing business locally is a big piece of that. But you can expect us to continue to expand the distribution, I would say, roughly at a clip that you've seen us this year and over the last couple years.

[Gregory Peters, Analyst at Raymond James]

Fair enough. Thank you for answering my questions.

[Steve Sprague, CEO at Cincinnati Financial Corporation]

Yeah, absolutely. Thank you for the questions.

[Operator]

The next question comes from Jing Li with KBW. Please go ahead.

[Jing Li, Analyst at KBW]

Hi, thank you for taking my question. I just have a question on E&S, unfavorable development. I know it's pretty small, but appreciate if you can add some colors on that.

[Steve Sprague, CEO at Cincinnati Financial Corporation]

Jing, yeah, I think you were referring to the unfavorable development on the E&S casualty, and I would just say for you there, it's just that we saw case incurred losses that are emerging at amounts higher than we expected. Like I'd mentioned earlier, that business, that book of business is 90% casualty. It's E&S, so it's got inherent volatility in it, inherent variability, but we've got a great track record of profitability in our E&S company, and we'll just continue to stay prudent like we always have company-wide with the reserves. So that's about all I'd have to add on unfavorable in the quarter for E&S.

[Jing Li, Analyst at KBW]

Got it. Thank you. I have a follow-up on the personal auto and personal lines. So the rate accelerated from high single digit to low double digit. Just curious about your view to reach on rate adequacy. Do you think that you still need double digit for twenty twenty-five and beyond?

[Steve Sprague, CEO at Cincinnati Financial Corporation]

Yeah. I wouldn't necessarily be able to give you, Jing, you know, the kind of run rate. All I can tell you is that we've still got a lot of rate earning into the book. And I think just with all the things that we've talked about here, with just with the changing weather patterns, I think there's still runway for rate across the across the entire personal lines book, and I would say this, again, the key for us is prospectively, you know, looking at it prospectively, and we do feel on a prospective basis that our rates in personal lines are ahead of loss cost trends.

[Jing Li, Analyst at KBW]

Got it. Thank you.

[Steve Sprague, CEO at Cincinnati Financial Corporation]

Thank you, Jing.

[Operator]

As a reminder, if you would like to ask a question, please press Star then one to be joined into the question queue. The next question comes from Grace Carter with Bank of America. Please go ahead.

[Grace Carter, Analyst at Bank of America]

Hi, everyone. I realize these are smaller segments, but the core loss ratio ticked up quite a bit versus recent history in both other commercial and other personal. So I was hoping that you could kind of give us an update on what you're seeing there, and if there's any sort of intra-year movement in there, and if it's just kind of related to some of the comments we've heard across the industry on pressure and long tail lines. Thank you.

[Steve Sprague, CEO at Cincinnati Financial Corporation]

Yeah, Grace. Thank you. You know, you, you alluded to it. There, you know, there's smaller premiums there. You're going to have... I think it's just a lot of inherent, you know, variability or volatility in those lines.... You know, as an example, in E&S lines, you know, it could be, it could be a little watercraft that you're seeing there in our book. But, you know, we, we do a deep dive on every line of business on a regular basis, and there's nothing there that, you know, points us in the direction of anything to be concerned about as far as geographic or agency or line of business. So I think that's about all I'd have to add on that for you, Grace.

[Grace Carter, Analyst at Bank of America]

Okay, thank you, and I guess-

[Grace Carter, Analyst at Bank of America]

Yeah.

[Grace Carter, Analyst at Bank of America]

I had another question on commercial casualty. I mean, I think usually you all have said that, you know, historically you see the core loss ratio higher in quarter one or in the first quarter relative to the last three quarters of the year, just given higher uncertainty from the newness of the accident year.

[Grace Carter, Analyst at Bank of America]

I guess I'm just kind of trying to understand better, like, what exactly you all saw this quarter that resulted in Q3 kind of moving above Q1, and just kind of trying to think about if maybe a year-to-date number is the best way to think about sort of where we should see that trending going forward, or just kind of any sort of color you can give on whether or not the Q3 level might be kind of the new run rate? Thank you.

[Steve Sprague, CEO at Cincinnati Financial Corporation]

Yeah, Grace, you're absolutely right. You know, we, you know, typically, every quarter that we get more data, more information, it, you know, you just refine those picks even more. I think what you've got going on in commercial casualty is just the, you know, the macro things that Mike alluded to earlier. You know, litigation costs up, the number of claims that are turning into litigation, social inflation, the legal system abuse, third-party litigation funding, it's all, you know, just really kind of putting that line of business industry-wide, I think, a little upside down. So I think that's why you're seeing that in the third quarter. It's just, you know, we're really trying to be prudent on that line of business just because the amount of uncertainty there is has stayed pretty consistent.

[Steve Sprague, CEO at Cincinnati Financial Corporation]

So, you know, as you know, we've got thirty-plus years of favorable development, and we do that through a consistent process, consistent people, and acting quickly when we see things that just cause us concern. But there's nothing specific in that third quarter other than, I would say, macro uncertainty.

[Grace Carter, Analyst at Bank of America]

Thank you.

[Steve Sprague, CEO at Cincinnati Financial Corporation]

Thank you, Grace.

[Operator]

This concludes our question and answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Steve Sprague for any closing remarks.

[Steve Sprague, CEO at Cincinnati Financial Corporation]

Thank you all for joining us today. We look forward to speaking with you again on the fourth quarter call. Hope everybody has a nice weekend.

Participants

Executives

• Steve Sprague, CEO
• Steve Soloria, CIO
• Dennis McDaniel, Head of Investor Relations
• Mike Sewell, EVP and CFO

Analysts

• Gregory Peters, Analyst at Raymond James
• Grace Carter, Analyst at Bank of America
• Jing Li, Analyst at KBW
• Mike Zarembski, Analyst at BMO
• Michael Phillips, Analyst at Oppenheimer