Ross Stores Q3 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Presentation

[Operator]

Good afternoon, and welcome to the Ross Stores Third Quarter 2024 Earnings Release Conference Call. The call will begin with prepared comments by management, followed by a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions]

Before we get started, on behalf of Ross Stores, I would like to note that the comments made on this call will contain forward-looking statements regarding expectations about future growth and financial results, including sales and earnings forecasts, new-store openings and other matters that are based on the Company's current forecast of aspects of its future business. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from historical performance or current expectations. Risk factors are included in today's press release and the Company's fiscal 2023 Form 10-K and fiscal 2024 Form 10-Qs and 8-Ks on file with the SEC.

And now I'd like to turn the call over to Barbara Rentler, Chief Executive Officer.

[Barbara Rentler, Vice Chair and Chief Executive Officer at Ross Stores]

Good afternoon. Joining me on our call today are Michael Hartshorn, Group President and Chief Operating Officer; Adam Orvos, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; and Connie Cow, Group Vice President, Investor Relations.

Before we get started, on behalf of our Board and the entire company, we are excited to welcome Jim Conroy to Ross Stores as CEO-elect next month. Following a two-month transition, Jim will assume the CEO role on February 2, 2025. Jim is a talented and proven retail executive with a demonstrated track record of developing and leading successful management teams and creating tremendous value for shareholders. As I previously announced, I will move into an advisory role at the beginning of fiscal 2025 and will support Jim and our other senior executives on merchandising-related strategies through March of 2027.

Now let's turn to our earnings results. As noted in today's press release, we are disappointed with our third-quarter sales results as business slowed from the solid gains we reported in the first half of 2024. Although our low to moderate income customers continue to face persistently high costs on necessities, pressuring the discretionary spending, we believe we should have better executed some of our merchandising initiatives. In addition, we estimate a combination of severe weather during the quarter from hurricanes Helene and Milton along with unseasonably warm temperatures also negatively impacted comps by about 1%.

Despite the below-planned sales results, earnings were ahead of our expectations. Operating margin for the quarter was up 75 basis points to 11.9% versus 11.2% last year as lower incentive, freight and distribution costs more than offset the planned decline in merchandise margins. Total sales for the period grew to $5.1 billion, up from $4.9 billion in the prior year, with comparable-store sales up 1%. Earnings per share for the 13 weeks ended November 2, 2024, were $1.48 compared to earnings per share of $1.33 last year.

Net income for the period rose to $489 million versus $447 million in the prior year period. For the first nine months, earnings per share were $4.53 or net earnings of $1.5 billion compared to $3.74 per share on net income of $1.3 billion for the same period last year. Sales for the year-to-date period grew to $15.2 billion with comparable-store sales up 3% over last year. For the third quarter of Ross, cosmetics, accessories and children were the strongest merchandise areas, while California and Texas were the best-performing regions.

Similar to the second quarter, dd's DISCOUNTS strong value of fashion offerings continued to resonate with its shoppers with comp gains exceeding Ross' results. At quarter-end, total consolidated inventories were up 9% versus last year, while average store inventories were up 1%. Packaway merchandise represented 38% of total inventories compared to 39% last year.

During the third quarter, we also completed our expansion program for 2024 with the addition of 43 new Ross and four dd's DISCOUNTS stores. For the year, we added a total of 89 locations comprised of 75 Ross and 14 dd's. We plan to close and/or relocate seven locations in the fourth-quarter and expect to end the year with 1,831 Ross stores and 354 dd's DISCOUNTS locations.

Now Adam will provide further details on our third-quarter results and fourth-quarter guidance.

[Adam Orvos, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer at Ross Stores]

Thank you, Barbara. As previously stated, comparable-store sales rose 1% in the quarter. Operating margin increased 75 basis points to 11.9%. Cost-of-goods-sold improved by 70 basis points in the quarter. Buying levered by 65 basis points, mainly due to lower incentives, while distribution and domestic freight costs declined by 50 basis points and 40 basis points respectively. Occupancy rose by 25 basis points, while merchandise margin decreased by 60 basis points. SG&A costs for the period improved by 5 basis points, primarily due to lower incentive costs. During the third-quarter, we repurchased 1.8 million shares of common stock for an aggregate cost of $262 million. We remain on track to buyback a total of $1.05 billion in stock for the year.

Now let's discuss our fourth-quarter guidance. For the 13 weeks ending February 1, 2025, we continue to project comparable-store sales to increase 2% to 3%. Earnings per share for the fourth quarter are planned to be in the range of $1.57 to $1.64 compared to $1.82 in the fourth quarter of 2023. This guidance range includes an unfavorable impact of approximately $0.03 per share, primarily from the timing of packaway-related expenses that benefited the third quarter.

Based on our year-to-date results and our fourth-quarter forecast, earnings per share for the 52 weeks ending February 1, 2025, are now expected to be in the range of $6.10 to $6.17 versus $5.56 last year. As a reminder, last year's fourth-quarter and full-year results included an extra week that benefited earnings by approximately $0.20. The operating statement assumptions that support our fourth-quarter guidance include the following. Total sales are projected to decline 1% to 3%. As a reminder, last year's extra week contributed $308 million to sales.

We expect operating margin to be in the range of 11.2% to 11.5% versus 12.4% last year. Last year's fourth quarter included an 80 basis point benefit from the extra week. This outlook reflects lower merchandise margin as we continue to increase the penetration of quality branded merchandise, partially offset by lower incentive and freight expenses. Net interest income is estimated to be about $35 million. Our tax rate is expected to be approximately 24% and weighted-average diluted shares outstanding are projected to be about $329 million.

Now, I'll turn the call back to Barbara for closing comments.

[Barbara Rentler, Vice Chair and Chief Executive Officer at Ross Stores]

Thank you, Adam. To sum up, we believe we have opportunities to improve our merchandise execution and remain confident that our ongoing focus and commitment to delivering the most compelling values possible will best position our company for profitable growth over the near and long-term.

At this point, we'd like to open up the call and respond to any questions you might have.

Questions and Answers

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions] And the first question comes from the line of Matthew Boss with JPMorgan. Please proceed with your question.

[Matthew Boss, Analyst at JPMorgan Chase & Co.]

Great. Thanks. So Barbara, could you elaborate maybe on the opportunities to improve merchandising execution that you cited any assortment changes for holiday or just your confidence in 2% to 3% comps for the fourth quarter? And then, Adam, as we think about gross margin, maybe just gross margin relative to plan, especially on the merchandise margin side in the third quarter? And any differences in drivers as we think about fourth quarter puts and takes relative to the third?

[Barbara Rentler, Vice Chair and Chief Executive Officer at Ross Stores]

Sure, Matt. So first, opportunities to changes in the assortment. I think we had some execution issues in a couple of businesses that we've identified and that we think we can correct, didn't probably move as quickly as we should have in some things where there were some, I would say, shift in the world from a product perspective. So I feel like that's an opportunity, and we missed some volume there. And also as we continue to iterate on our brand strategy and keep improving the brand strategy listening to the customer and making those changes. So that continues.

In terms of the fourth quarter and the acceleration and guiding of 2% to 3%, as we get into the fourth quarter, many of the businesses that are really important during the holiday season, and I know you know this, whether it's gifting or cosmetics, those businesses, accessories have been strengths for us. So as we go into that period, we're going to some of our strongest businesses and also gifting last year in a lot of our home world was very good, and we're building on that.

So I feel like those businesses should do well during the period. They're doing well now. And that gives us the confidence on the 2% to 3%. And again, we'll continue to iterate on our other strategies in the remainder of the box, where we had some execution issues, we are in the process of fixing them. And obviously, we had some weather issues in Q3 that -- who knows what will happen from a weather perspective across the country for any of us, but we also had some of that.

[Adam Orvos, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer at Ross Stores]

And Matt, on your question on Q3 and Q4, I'd probably start with merchandise margin. And I mentioned it declined by 60 basis points in Q3. Now that result benefited from better-than-expected drink results as we completed our physical inventory process and trued up our results in Q3. And then looking forward to Q4, probably an uptick in pressure for merchandise margin as we continue to push off for more brands that are sharply priced to deliver the strong value proposition that we want for our customers in the holiday season.

Domestic freight, we mentioned was 40 basis points -- it was worth 40 basis points in Q3. I would expect that to be pretty consistent in Q4. I'll always caveat it with fuel costs, but assuming they stay where they are would expect that to be comparable. Distribution costs, again, were another source of strength for us. We mentioned the packaway shift that we have to take into account. So that will -- that was worth $0.03. That will put pressure on us in Q4. Incentives both -- on both sides will continue to be favorable. We would expect in fourth quarter as we're again up against 2023, where we are outperforming in a significant way. And then lastly, obviously, we have the 53rd week impact that we talked about.

[Matthew Boss, Analyst at JPMorgan Chase & Co.]

Great color. Best of luck.

[Operator]

Thank you. And the next question comes from the line of Mark Altschwager with Baird. Please proceed with your question.

[Mark Altschwager, Analyst at Robert W. Baird]

Thank you for taking my question. Barbara, you're going to be passing the reins here in a few months, but remaining in an advisory role. Maybe speak a little bit more to your areas of focus as you transition your responsibilities. Relatedly, merchant team still seems to be in the early innings of this value strategy or brand strategy iterating there. I guess, any changes to expect there, or could anything change there with the new leadership? Thank you.

[Barbara Rentler, Vice Chair and Chief Executive Officer at Ross Stores]

Okay. My areas of focus, obviously, will be to spend time with Jim and help him on board and to spend my time on merchandising. It will be an advisory role heavily focused on merchandising. I don't foresee any changes to our strategy because our brand strategy is really the key to our market share gains. I don't foresee that. And -- but it will continue to iterate, and that's really where I will spend my time. Obviously, Jim is a very seasoned CEO. And he complements the strengths that we have in merchandising and our operational team. So I feel like Jim is a great add. And the team -- it will be a good combination together. And my role will be to make sure that merchandising continues going forward and that Jim gets transitioned appropriately.

[Mark Altschwager, Analyst at Robert W. Baird]

Thank you. Best of luck over holiday.

[Operator]

And the next question comes from the line of Paul Lejuez with Citigroup. Please proceed with your question.

[Paul Lejuez, Analyst at Smith Barney Citigroup]

Thanks, guys. A couple of quick ones. Curious if the execution issues related at all to the strategy of moving more towards recognizable brands, and how quick you can fix those issues. And Adam, any quantification of that shrink benefit, how much it helped the merch margin line? And then also curious if you could talk about the performance of some of your initial store openings in the Northeast. Thanks.

[Barbara Rentler, Vice Chair and Chief Executive Officer at Ross Stores]

Okay. The execution issues are potentially merchandise -- I would say merchandise mix issue is not so much on the brand thing. However, the brand strategy, we keep iterating on that and keep listening to the customer because we keep making changes as we go. So obviously, as we started this in the beginning, I said each business is at different points at the starting point to where we are now. And so we keep responding to what the customer is telling us. So I would say that across the board we'll continue to do. And just something for just execution issues, which we can fix.

[Michael Hartshorn, Group President and Chief Operating Officer at Ross Stores]

Paul, it's Michael Hartshorn. On the shrink, we don't break out shrink separately. What I would say is we -- and you know this covering us from over the years as we completed our fiscal inventory in the third quarter. We had assumed that shrink was going to be worse for a couple of reasons. One, just the external landscape, but also the increased number of brands in the store. So what that meant is we accrued more going up to physical inventory. And so we took a benefit, a larger benefit in Q3 that helped EBIT margin not only versus what we guided but versus last year. For the year, though, shrink looks like it's going to be about flat to 2023, again, with the upside in the third quarter.

Your last question, Paul, was on the Northeast. It's too early to comment on the overall store productivity, but we are pleased with what we've seen thus far.

[Paul Lejuez, Analyst at Smith Barney Citigroup]

Thanks, guys. Good luck.

[Operator]

Yes. And the next question comes from the line of Lorraine Hutchinson with Bank of America. Please proceed with your question.

[Lorraine Hutchinson, Analyst at Bank of America]

Thank you. Good afternoon. As the branded strategy continues to evolve, do you view this as a multiyear merchandise margin headwind? And are there other offsets that you're working on to ease some of this pressure in 2025 and beyond?

[Michael Hartshorn, Group President and Chief Operating Officer at Ross Stores]

Lorraine, our expectation is over time that as we build our brand relationships and as we learn what works best with our customer that over time, it would be earnings accretion. And we'd expect slight improvements of margins over time.

[Lorraine Hutchinson, Analyst at Bank of America]

Thank you.

[Operator]

And the next question comes from the line of Chuck Grom with Gordon Haskett. Please proceed with your question.

[Chuck Grom, Analyst at Gordon Haskett]

Thanks. Good afternoon and congrats on your upcoming time, Barbara. Can you talk about the cadence of sales throughout the quarter? And then also the composition of the comp between traffic and ticket? And then if you could double click on ticket between UBT and AUR. Thank you.

[Michael Hartshorn, Group President and Chief Operating Officer at Ross Stores]

Sure. On the cadence during the quarter, comps were strongest early in the quarter as the weather became more difficult gradually as we move through the quarter. We did see improvements in sell-throughs in markets when the weather became more seasonal. As we said in the commentary, the comps were driven by traffic. The other components of comp were relatively neutral.

[Operator]

And the next question comes from the line of Simeon Siegel with BMO Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question.

[Simeon Siegel, Analyst at BMO Capital Markets]

Thanks. Hi, everyone. Good afternoon. Can you dig in a little bit more to the brand strategy pivot, I guess, just first, maybe to contextualize how meaningful is the shift within the mix? Maybe how's the early reception? Just curious if you're seeing learnings from our feedback from vendors or consumers. And then maybe just following up on the Lorraine, just recognizing the merch margin pressure now, I'm just wondering ultimately with better brands, do you think you get to raise price there to fix that margin pressure if so long this take before maybe the customers can accept those higher price points at the stronger value? Thank you.

[Barbara Rentler, Vice Chair and Chief Executive Officer at Ross Stores]

Okay. On the early customer acceptance, I'll say, of our branches, in many of these businesses, these are not major branches, right? And so I just want to emphasize that the brand shift is good, better, best, all kinds of values and pricings moderate and above. And so in some businesses, the brand shifts aren't that great because they were already at the, I would say, appropriate level that the customer is responding to and really like, and so we didn't do it.

In other areas, we felt like we needed to make bolder moves and ladies, we felt like we needed to make bolder moves than we have. And so we -- again, we're at different journeys and different acceptance levels by the customer based on what the product is and the area that it is. So it's not just a straight line that I could say, hey, this is where we are completely on the journey. Some places, we feel that we're there. And in other places, we feel like we have a long road to go and not a long road. That's probably a bad expression. We have a ways to go in figuring out exactly what it is she wants. And that really tends to be more in our ladies' business.

And as you know, ladies is a tougher business. And so we're learning. Merchants are shifting as the customer is voting, and we want to get that right mix of the right brands that she like and a mix of good, better, best at the level that she enjoys, and we want to just make sure that the entire thing that we're giving compelling values there, particularly in ladies as ladies is a tough business always compared to other parts of apparel.

[Simeon Siegel, Analyst at BMO Capital Markets]

Yeah. So would you expect -- sorry. So would you expect AUR to naturally progress higher through this? Or is it not that meaningful?

[Barbara Rentler, Vice Chair and Chief Executive Officer at Ross Stores]

No, not necessarily. It's not an AUR strategy. It's really a brand and value strategy. So we're not going in and saying, we want to raise our AUR by X. We're putting out different brands at different levels in a good, better, best. And then -- and it's seeking its own level with customers. We can see what they like more than others and making adjustments as we go because some businesses didn't have to make as bigger move perhaps as the lady business had to make, but it's not an AUR strategy. It's a value strategy at all brands here so that we're addressing all the customer base, right? So we have customers who like every price point, and we want to make sure that we fine-tune that so that we can consider -- that we can still give that treasure hunt experience to all customers in the store.

So it's a learning and adjustment as we go. And we think that ladies will continue to improve as time goes on and some other businesses are, again, summer tweaks and some are bigger moves and the merchant team is very, very on this, and we are very focused on value because delivering compelling value is really the single most important thing we need to do for our future and for market share gains.

[Simeon Siegel, Analyst at BMO Capital Markets]

Great. Thanks very much. Good luck for holiday.

[Operator]

And the next question comes from the line of Adrieene Yih with Barclays. Please proceed with your question.

[Adrieene Yih, Analyst at Barclays]

Good afternoon. And Barbara, congratulations on your retirement, your upcoming retirement as well.

[Barbara Rentler, Vice Chair and Chief Executive Officer at Ross Stores]

Thanks.

[Adrieene Yih, Analyst at Barclays]

So just to sort of like -- sorry, another question on this. Have you given any color on what the kind of brand penetration or the tweaking that you've done, like how much tweaking? Is it mid-single-digit percent of the assortment? And I know it's going to be very, very hard to kind of do that on a global basis. But any color there on the amount more in brands?

And then, Michael, or Adam, perhaps if you can help give us some color on sort of the differential. And I guess it will be different per brand, what the differential to kind of the current merch margin is relative to kind of what a brand might be like the increased brand penetration. And I guess my final just like wrap up on that. Back when you were doing 14%, 15% operating margins, the gross margin was 100 and change, higher 29%. So if we do have kind of merch margin pressure, is the offset to come from leverage from just gaining higher than your historical kind of 1% to 2% comp? Is that the -- how we should think about it? Thank you.

[Michael Hartshorn, Group President and Chief Operating Officer at Ross Stores]

I'll start with your last question first, it's Michael. How we see our operating margins going forward. Obviously, we have a model over time driven partly by new store growth, comp growth, which has historically been in the 3% to 4% range and some operating margin improvement in the middle and in our share buyback. We have initiatives throughout the company, whether it's technology investments, whether it's cost control to be able to offset any impact to merchant margins. As I said, though, earlier, over the longer term, we believe that we can grow merchant margins from this base based on our vendor relationships as this gains traction and also as we learn more about what the customer wants.

[Barbara Rentler, Vice Chair and Chief Executive Officer at Ross Stores]

And in terms of the penetration, I mean that's -- it's hard to do right. You can't do it at a global level. It's different by business. And so it's hard to do that. I think that the thing -- as we started this whole brand thing and as I sit back, and we've been talking about -- we talked about brands, we always had brands in the store. I mean our business model is to have brands. What we realized is that in some getting surveys and feedback and everything in some areas, we needed more. What more is, it's something that I can't pick a number and say, hey, this is what we're going to march to because the customer has to decide what that is.

I think the most important thing for us to recognize and for everyone to recognize is that we're responding to what she is saying, right? And so -- and then making changes to it. It's hard to just pick a -- it can't pick percent. In some areas, if we were talking about an area like shoes, we would have said we were highly branded. We are highly branded. We were highly branded, there weren't so many changes. So it's just -- it depends what it is. I can't give you one number.

And the other thing, it will seek its own level, and we'll know when we've got to like in some businesses where we feel like we are where we want to be in some of those we'll know, we'll know by the terms, we'll know by the mark downs, we'll know by how quickly the merchandise is moving through the store. And I think that's really the way to go, which is why it's kind of hard to just quantify here's where we're going is the biggest mistake we can make with this is picking a number and just kind of really forging forward to a very large number that maybe is incorrect. So we started out with a number to begin, and we keep iterating again on what she's telling us. And that can be different by products, and it can be different by where I am in some of our businesses for classifications.

[Operator]

And the next question comes from the line of Brooke Roach with Goldman Sachs. Please proceed with your question.

[Brook Roach, Analyst at The Goldman Sachs Group]

Good afternoon. Thank you for taking our question. Barbara, can you comment on what you're seeing in the macro backdrop for the Ross Stores consumer outside of the weather events that we saw this quarter, have you seen any change in the way that the consumer is engaging with the brand? And then as a follow-up, it sounds like dd's is still outperforming the Rough stores banner. What insights are you gleaning from that regarding your low-income consumer, or is that an execution differential? Thank you.

[Michael Hartshorn, Group President and Chief Operating Officer at Ross Stores]

It's Michael Hartshorn. I'll start with the dd's. First, it potentially as the dd's Group and merchants have done a very nice job, and we're happy with the adjustments we've been able to make in the dd's chain. They've been able to improve our value and fashion offerings and it's resonated very well with the customer and dd's outcome across for the quarter. One other bright spot for dd's is the newer markets where we slowed growth have improved. But we need to see, given that their sales volume started at levels below our expectations, we'll need to see sustained growth there before we ramp up new store growth in some of those newer markets.

[Barbara Rentler, Vice Chair and Chief Executive Officer at Ross Stores]

And Brooke, give me more favor around what you want as you're saying the customer engaging with the brand. You're just saying that...

[Brook Roach, Analyst at The Goldman Sachs Group]

Is there any change in the macro or consumer engagement with your business as we've moved through the early holiday season outside of the weather events?

[Barbara Rentler, Vice Chair and Chief Executive Officer at Ross Stores]

You mean just as the customer -- now that weather is gone, is the business improving? And is the customer out shopping again?

[Brook Roach, Analyst at The Goldman Sachs Group]

Yes.

[Barbara Rentler, Vice Chair and Chief Executive Officer at Ross Stores]

I think when -- I think if we went through the third quarter, I think it starts -- the third quarter started off strong then weather came. And then obviously, as Michael said before, as the weather changed by region, we watch the consumer come back. So part of it is weather. And then there's a lot of shifts going on as holidays coming earlier this year. So I think part of it is just that. And I think an earlier Christmas, I think might change a little bit of the dynamic to how the customer is going to shop. It's been a long time since we've had Christmas at week four. So -- but yes, coming out of the weather, the customer did come back.

[Michael Hartshorn, Group President and Chief Operating Officer at Ross Stores]

Brooke, from just a customer basis on whether income basis or age basis, we have not -- we did not in Q3. We haven't seen over time a significant shift on that basis either.

[Operator]

And the next question comes from the line of Alex Straton with Morgan Stanley. Please proceed with your question.

[Alex Straton, Analyst at Morgan Stanley]

Perfect. Thanks so much. I just wanted to focus on the fourth quarter guidance. Is it correct that the outlook hasn't changed much from last time we spoke, except for the packaway shift, or have some pieces within there moved? And then just on the comp acceleration that you're still embedding, should I just assume that that's reflective of what you're seeing quarter-to-date, or what gives you the confidence there?

[Michael Hartshorn, Group President and Chief Operating Officer at Ross Stores]

On the guidance, it hasn't changed. The only thing that's changed is pack away. On the guidance itself, first, the unfavorable weather had a negative impact on the third quarter that we're not expecting in the fourth quarter. We'll see how it plays out. As Barbara mentioned earlier, as we move into the fourth quarter, many of our merchandise areas that have been performing well are important fourth quarter and holiday businesses. And then finally, the guides base. We feel good about our assortments. We have planned for the holiday, especially in gift giving.

[Operator]

And the next question comes from the line of Michael Binetti with Evercore. Please proceed with your question.

[Michael Binetti, Analyst at Evercore ISI]

Hey, guys. Congrats on a nice quarter. This is a really big margin beat for 1% comp guide. Is there any near-term change in the leverage point we should think about? Or could you help us contextualize what you think this -- in this quarter would not repeat in the theoretical, if we saw 1% comp again. And then on the branded goods strategy, maybe you could just help us understand if the underlying merch margin decelerate or accelerate versus 2Q? If we exclude the shrink true-up, are we past the peak of the branded goods pressure, or what -- maybe what would cause it to accelerate or continue to moderate?

[Adam Orvos, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer at Ross Stores]

Michael, on the first piece, so our EPS beat, we talked about merchandising -- merchandise coming in better than expected related to shrink. I would say also felt good about just our overall cost management within the quarter. So multiple parts of the P&L benefiting. Now does that change our leverage point? No, we still think 3% to 4% comp growth is the right place for us to leverage. The shrink is obviously a one-time piece, right, because we true up in third quarter as we always do. And then of course, the packaway is onetime in nature. So I think the only other moving part that we haven't talked about, EPS benefited by higher interest income. That -- embedded in our guidance is some pressure assuming further rate cuts the balance of the year.

[Michael Hartshorn, Group President and Chief Operating Officer at Ross Stores]

Michael, we don't -- our leverage point hasn't changed. As Adam said, we had a lot of one-timers in the in the quarter. Looking forward and even longer term, the leverage point is pretty constant between 3% and 4%.

[Operator]

And the next question comes from the line of Dana Telsey with the Telsey Advisory Group. Please proceed with your question.

[Dana Telsey, Analyst at Telsey Advisory Group]

Hi, good afternoon, everyone. As you think about the implementation potentially of tariffs going forward, how do you think of your assortment and pricing relative to the tariffs that may come into place and remind us of what happened last time? And then when you think about some of the changes in management like with dd's, any holes to fill or with this branded strategy is anything shifting within dd's also given the improved results that we've seen there? Thank you.

[Michael Hartshorn, Group President and Chief Operating Officer at Ross Stores]

Dana, on the tariffs, we're -- we'll be closely monitoring any developments there. I'm sure everybody across the industry is doing so. It's too early to say what the potential impact could be on us and the rest of retail. Our focus in the case of a tariff increase would be to maintain a pricing umbrella versus traditional retailers and offer the best values to the customer. We will not be a leader in raising prices.

[Barbara Rentler, Vice Chair and Chief Executive Officer at Ross Stores]

And in terms of dd's, dd's has their strategy in place that they've been working on, and that will just continue. So there won't be any other new strategies or additional changes. They'll just be building upon their successes.

[Operator]

And the next question comes from the line of Ike Boruchow with Wells Fargo. Please proceed with your question.

[Ike Boruchow, Analyst at Wells Fargo & Company]

Hey, guys. Adam, sorry if I missed it, could you give us maybe an update on freight in the fourth quarter? And then maybe just high-level state of the union domestic and ocean into next year, just how we should expect that line item to kind of progress based on what you have in front of you right now?

[Adam Orvos, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer at Ross Stores]

Yeah. Ike, on the domestic side, so we're 40 basis points of improvement in Q3, probably expect something similar in Q4. It's been tracking pretty consistently all year. On the Ocean side, it was a negligible impact in the quarter in the short term would expect that. Obviously, we're watching some of the potential disruptions and watching for the resolution of the strike issue that would impact the East Coast ports in the Gulf Port. So we're watching all those things. But with what we know right now, don't see that as anything other than neutral. And then we'll have to see, as we'll come back and talk to you at the beginning of the year on how we see '25 and beyond once we get into the bidding process for next year.

[Operator]

And the next question comes from the line of Jay Sole with UBS. Please proceed with your question.

[Jay Sole, Analyst at UBS Group]

Great. Thank you, Barbara, just wondering if there was anything related to inventory availability or just timing of buying that sort of contributed to some of the issues for an execution that you cited that impacted Q3? Thank you.

[Barbara Rentler, Vice Chair and Chief Executive Officer at Ross Stores]

Well, in terms of inventory availability, it's favorable. Again, some businesses have more availability than others. In terms of the impact of buying to Q3, I'm not sure I understand what you mean, Jay, by that, just that we have buy -- is that we were buying, or just -- or did that contribute to the quarter's performance? I'm not sure what you want me to answer.

[Jay Sole, Analyst at UBS Group]

Right. Like perhaps like did you buy too much inventory too soon, not leave enough open to buy, did you sort of...

[Barbara Rentler, Vice Chair and Chief Executive Officer at Ross Stores]

No, I don't think that was part of the issue. And in fact, in seasonal businesses, we leave money open things like outdoor or whatever because history would tell us that you don't know how it's going to start. And so we leave -- the merchants leave liquidity so that we don't get caught with that. So no, I don't think it has to do with the speed of what we bought or I think it's just some of the choices we made or didn't make, but it has nothing to do with that.

[Operator]

And the next question comes from the line of Marni Shapiro with Retail Tracker. Please proceed with your question.

[Marni Shapiro, Analyst at Retail Tracker]

Hey, guys. Thanks. Congratulations on hire, and Barbara, you will be missed. I have a quick question for you. The dollar stores collectively have been under a lot of pressure and have made announcements that they're closing a lot of stores. And I'm curious if you could just give us a little insight into how many -- if any of your dd stores or Ross stores, in fact, compete with them in similar areas. Is there an opportunity as they close stores if you've seen some of those stores closed already, and you've seen the customer for certain items shifted over to you? if you could just frame that a little bit because it's obviously a big retail conversation.

[Michael Hartshorn, Group President and Chief Operating Officer at Ross Stores]

Yeah, I don't have the exact number of stores. Obviously, smaller footprint, a lot more consumables than what we have in dd's. So I would say it's hard to see any impact, very different merchandise mix. So could there be some upside potentially, but given what's in the box, I don't see it as a huge upside.

[Barbara Rentler, Vice Chair and Chief Executive Officer at Ross Stores]

It's really consumable, Marni. That's really -- their business is so big and dd's does business in consumables, but I think that's -- I think in what they have in there, I think that's probably -- to Michael's point, that's probably the biggest overlap/potential opportunity.

[Operator]

And the next question comes from the line of Aneesha Sherman with Bernstein. Please proceed with your question.

[Aneesha Sherman, Analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein]

Thank you for taking my question. Barbara, if I can ask a follow-up on the brand strategy. So you talked about good, better, best. Are you seeing any differences in the performance of the good versus the best in terms of sell-through and velocity? And then a follow-up on the weather comments. You said the weather comment -- weather impact to comp was about 1%. As we've come out of some of the weather issues, have you seen the comp run rate in those impacted stores improve by about that magnitude coming out of the back half of the quarter? Thank you.

[Michael Hartshorn, Group President and Chief Operating Officer at Ross Stores]

Aneesha, on the weather, yes, we did. And I said previously, we did see improvements in sell-throughs in markets where weather became more seasonable within Q3.

[Barbara Rentler, Vice Chair and Chief Executive Officer at Ross Stores]

And then on a good, better, best, you know we turn goods overall very quickly in the store. I mean there's always some turn differential, but the overall turn on apparel is very fast. So I think what we own -- I would put it this way, if we own the right goods at the right value, it all turns very quickly. If we own the wrong goods, it doesn't turn as quickly. So -- but overall, the entire box, we turn -- we drive receipts is our mission to drive receipts not on inventory. So churn is always on our mind. But it's again, it's -- to be honest, it's really about the value putting on the floor, the products and the value, it always comes back to the product and the value and then it will turn quickly because the customer knows in a treasure hunt environment, if I don't buy it, it won't be there next week. So...

[Operator]

And the next question comes from the line of John Kernan with TD Cowen. Please proceed with your question.

[John Kernan, Analyst at TD Cowen]

Excellent. Thanks for taking my question. Maybe just to go back on the real estate theme. Your off-price, whether it's Ross stores, dd's, your competitors TJX and Burlington, a lot of store growth plans for the next two, three, five years. How is the real estate availability for Ross stores and across really regionally Northeast, West, Southeast, whole country? What's your view on the overall availability outlook and the quality of real estate for all pricing until right now?

[Michael Hartshorn, Group President and Chief Operating Officer at Ross Stores]

Sure, John. I'd say overall, we feel good about what we have in the real estate landscape and we have a healthy pipeline for the next couple of years. I would say real estate is tight. There's not a lot of new centers being constructed. And for us, there's increased interest from other retailers and the types of real estate that we typically prefer. That said, we have a very strong team that has a methodical process of developing a healthy real estate pipeline to support our growth plans over the next number of years.

[Operator]

And the final question comes from the line of Laura Champine with Loop Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question.

[Laura Champine, Analyst at Loop Capital Markets]

Thanks for squeezing me in. The -- your incoming CEO has got a difficult comp with a 40-year veteran of off-price merchandising. And I'm curious that will likely change the structure of his direct reports or responsibility set? And also, Barbara, to the extent that you're comfortable talking about it. I think this is a pretty insular industry, especially as you move up the ranks. Why is now a good time to bring someone in from outside off-price from a smaller company?

[Barbara Rentler, Vice Chair and Chief Executive Officer at Ross Stores]

Okay. So responsibility reporting to him will be to one 25-year-plus veteran and the other 30-year-plus veteran. So I think from a merchant perspective and tenure and below that level, the group -- the average tenure is around 20 years below then. So I feel like I think that's fine. I actually think it's good. I think -- so he's got a very strong bench below him that understands off-price, and yeah, I mean I'm very comfortable that the mix is good. And actually, I think Jim complements some of the talent that we have in the organization.

In terms of timing, look, a year and half ago, when -- in June of '23, we announced internally, externally that I was going to step down. And the agreement was that with the Board that if we found the right person, looking internally, externally, the whole thing was when we found the right person that we would hire that person, I would move to an advisory role. So I don't know if it's necessarily the timing with where we are at the brand strategy. I think the single most important thing is to have the right person. And that, to me, is in the handoff, that's critical, right?

So I do think Jim is the right person. And so -- and obviously, there's a lot of tenure at Ross of people who have been here a long time, not only me, but Michael and Norman, there's a lot of people who have been here a long time. So Jim will learn the business. But I don't -- it had nothing to do with we have our brand strategy. You know we're not going to -- when you find the right person, or, I mean, you know when it's right, it's right, and Jim is the right person. And so that really was a decision, and I was part of that decision. So I feel good about it. And clearly, we're going to make sure that Jim is successful because we have him pretty surrounded by true off-price veterans who have been doing it.

I'm getting older than saying this to for years and years and years, but that's really what we've done. And that's really why the timing is earlier, but again, when you find the right person, I'm sure you've all done searches, everyone know on this call, when you find the right person, you really have to jump on going to say, jump on the opportunity being an off-pricer, right? So everything is opportunistic. And so I think the timing is good for the company, and he'll be supported all along the way.

[Operator]

And ladies and gentlemen, at this time, there are no further questions. Now I'd like to turn the floor back over to Barbara Rentler for any closing comments.

[Barbara Rentler, Vice Chair and Chief Executive Officer at Ross Stores]

Thank you for joining us today, and I hope everybody has a happy holiday.

[Operator]

[Operator Closing Remarks]

Participants

Corporate Executives

• Barbara Rentler, Vice Chair and Chief Executive Officer
• Adam Orvos, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
• Michael Hartshorn, Group President and Chief Operating Officer

Analysts

• Matthew Boss, JPMorgan Chase & Co.
• Mark Altschwager, Robert W. Baird
• Paul Lejuez, Smith Barney Citigroup
• Lorraine Hutchinson, Bank of America Co.
• Chuck Grom, Gordon Haskett
• Simeon Siegel, BMO Capital Markets
• Adrieene Yih, Barclays PLC
• Brook Roach, The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.
• Alex Straton, Morgan Stanley
• Michael Binetti, Evercore ISI
• Dana Telsey, Telsey Advisory Group
• Ike Boruchow, Wells Fargo & Company
• Jay Sole, UBS Group AG
• Marni Shapiro, Retail Tracker
• Aneesha Sherman, Sanford C. Bernstein
• John Kernan, TD Cowen
• Laura Champine, Loop Capital Markets