Diamondback Energy Q1 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

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Operator

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Diamondback Energy first quarter earnings conference call. [Operator instructions] Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. [Operator instructions] I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Adam Lawlis, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Adam Lawlis
Vice President, Investor Relations at Diamondback Energy

Thank you, Amanda. Good morning, and welcome to Diamondback Energy's fourth quarter 2021 conference call. During our call today, we will reference an updated investor presentation, which can be found on Diamondback's website. Representing Diamondback today are Travis Stice, chairman and CEO; Kaes Van't Hof, president and CFO; and Danny Wesson, COO.

During this conference call, the participants may make certain forward-looking statements relating to the company's financial condition, results of operations, plans, objectives, future performance, and businesses. We caution you that actual results could differ materially from those that are indicated in these forward-looking statements due to a variety of factors. Information concerning these factors can be found in the company's filings with the SEC. In addition, we will make reference to certain non-GAAP measures. The reconciliations with the appropriate GAAP measures can be found in our earnings release issued yesterday afternoon. I will now turn the call over to Travis Stice.

Travis D. Stice
Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer at Diamondback Energy

Thank you, Adam. And welcome to Diamondback's first quarter earnings call. In February. Russia launched an unprovoked invasion of the sovereign nation of Ukraine. We at Diamondback strongly condemn Russia's actions and aggression. Our thoughts and prayers are with the millions of men, women and children affected by this unjust war and while we desire a quick and peaceful resolution to this conflict, we recognize that this war could go on for quite some time. We will continue to support the innocent victims of Ukraine just as we did earlier this year when we announced a $10 million commitment to various non-profit entities providing vital humanitarian support.

Russia's actions have plunged the global energy markets in the turmoil. As the world and especially our allies in the European Union grapple with the potential loss of a major source of their energy supply and rethink their respective energy policies, this war has magnified the interconnectivity of the global energy equation and the impact post Cold War globalization has had on all supply chains. It has also reminded world of the importance of the traditional oil and gas to the global economy. As we are witnessing the impact, high energy costs can have on the consumer and the economy in real time as the war end in the resulting governmental sanctions continue, Russia's oil production is expected to be impacted by shut-ins, natural declines, storage limitations and low

Exports, creating a global shortage of oil.

Over the next few years, we will need to make up for this loss production and we believe that the US oil and gas industry is best suited to provide the low cost, environmentally friendly barrels needed to ensure global energy supply. However, today we are operating in a constrained environment with inflationary pressures continuing to increase across all facets of our business. Also labor and material shortages are now present across the supply chain. We at Diamondback are fortunate to have secured the necessary equipment, personnel and materials to run our 2022 capital program. But increase in activity now would result in capital efficiency degradation. It will now meaningfully contribute to fixing the global supply and demand imbalance in the oil market today.

Therefore, Diamondback remains committed to maintaining our current oil production levels of approximately 220,000 net barrels of oil per day.

While we believe that efficiently growing our production base is achievable over the long term, we do not feel that today is the appropriate time to begin in dollars, that would not equate traditional barrels into multiple quarters from now. We continue to focus on capital efficiency and strive to operate with the highest level of environmental and social responsibility. At Diamondback, we plan to invest approximately $60 million to produce our direct emissions and lower our carbon intensity including ending routine flaring by 2025. This figure does not include the 100s of millions of dollars we have spent to electrify our production fields and to build pipelines to ensure we produce and transport fluid with the lowest emissions intensity possible.

These investments are not only good for the environment but also smart economic decisions that we expect will lower our operating costs. By investing in infrastructure in our high activity levels, we now have the ability to run a dedicated electric fleet for the foreseeable future. We have partnered with Halliburton to secure our first electric frac fleet, which will run in our Martin County acreage of power generated from the central location and delivered via existing lines, reducing our Scope one emissions profile. This partnership will also lower our cost per foot, primarily due to fuel savings, decrease our footprint on location and increase our operational efficiency as a result of lower maintenance and non-productive time.

We expect this fleet to be operational in the fourth quarter. In 2021, we also announced initiatives to reduce our Scope one greenhouse gas emissions for GHG intensity by at least 50% and reduce methane intensity by at least 70% from 2019 levels by 2024. In 2021 alone, we reduced our Scope one GHG and methane intensity by 15% and 20% respectively from the 2020 levels. Lastly, we launched our Net Zero Now strategy under which as of January 1 of 2021, every hydrocarbon produced by Diamondback is anticipated to have zero net Scope one GHG emissions as we offset these emissions with certified carbon credits.

Moving to first quarter performance, our production of 223,000 barrels of oil exceeded the high end of our guidance range, creating 1.4 billion in operating cash flow. We were able to keep our capital costs in check. Spending $437 million in capex during the quarter. Nearly hitting the low end of our guidance range of $435 million to $475 million and pushing our free cash flow for the quarter to $974 million. We returned $555 million cash back to our stockholders or $3.09 per share, representing 57% of Q1 2022 free cash flow and 50% of adjusted free cash flow which we calculated by adding back the $135 million in cash we used to terminate certain future hedge positions. This return has made the stock repurchases, the base dividend in our first variable dividend.

As we have said in the past, our share repurchase program is opportunistic and we start with our plan of evaluating our share repurchases just as we would with any acquisition. A buyback must generate a return well in excess of our weighted average cost of capital assuming a reasonable mid cycle oil price. In the first quarter, oil price debt[Phonetic] was approximately $60 a barrel and as such, we were able to take advantage of some of the volatility in the market and repurchased 57,000 shares at an average price of $117 a share.

Through the end of the first quarter, we have spent about $440 million or 20% of the $2 billion program our Board authorized last September. Additionally, we once again increased our growing base dividend, which we view as our primary, constant and predictable form of shareholder returns. It is now at $2.80 a share on an annualized basis, up 7% quarter-over-quarter and approaching our target of $3 a share. We have now increased our base dividend by quarterly CAGR of over 11% since it was initiated in 2018. Today, this represents a current yield of just over 2%.

Finally, with the free cash flow return through our base dividend and repurchase program which is now equal at least 50% of our free cash flow for that particular quarter and we have committed to make our investors whole by distributing the rest of that free cash flow via a variable dividend. This strategy gives us the ability to be flexible and opportunistic when distributing capital above and beyond our base dividend and most importantly allows at least 50% of free cash flow to be returned. For our strategy, we allocated $423 million to our first variable dividend in this quarter or $2.35 per share, putting our total dividend payout in the first quarter at $3.05 per share or nearly a 10% total dividend yield. We met our commitment to return at least 50% of free cash flow to our stockholders and use the remaining cash to strengthen our financial and operating position.

In the quarter, we fully redeemed $500 million of notes due in 2024 and $1 billion of notes due in 2025. We also took advantage of the flat long end of the curve by pricing $750 million in new 30-year senior notes at 4.25%. This liability management exercise reduced our absolute debt by $750 million, $20 million, pushed out the average weighted maturity of our debt profile by 5 years and kept average weighted cost of debt flat. With only one tranche of near-term maturities outstanding, we are pleased with the progress we have made to improve our investment grade balance sheet and are nearing our leverage target of approximately one-time[Phonetic] a $50 oil, which would equate to approximately $3.5 billion, in absolute debt at the current level.

We also continue to put our cash to work by high grading our existing inventory position through small bolton acquisitions and we are excited about walking up our reward position with the acquisitions we completed in January. This bolton added approximately 6,000 net acres in Ward County and gave us an additional 60 long lateral locations with an 80% net revenue interest in a high rate of return there. In fact, we have already begun drilling the position. But do not expect to have production until late this year.

As we look to our outlook for the rest of 2022, our simple plan has not changed. Maintain oil production of approximately 220,000 barrels of oil per day, by spending between $1.75 billion and $1.9 billion. At the current strip pricing, this production and capital spend equates to approximately 400 -- $4.5 billion of free cash flow which per our returns framework gives us a minimum of $2.25 billion of cash back to our investors. We are off to a good start for the year. Mitigating inflationary pressures while justifying our social and environmental license to operate. We believe our capital discipline and returns profile is still best near term path to equity value creation while our operational execution provides differentiated returns to our shareholders. With these comments now complete, operator, please open the line for questions.

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Operator

Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Neil Dingman from Truist Securities. Your line is now open.

Neal Dingmann
Analyst at Truist Securities

Good morning all. Travis, first question is obvious just on shareholder return. Specifically well, I guess maybe tackle a little bit different. I am just wondering what levers would you all think about pulling if oil were to go potentially in a super spike scenario where Russia oil would decouple or oil completely goes the other way enrolls assuming something happens to Putin. I am really just trying to get a sense of what sort of quarterly changes you would or would not make if this were to happen down the line?

Travis D. Stice
Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer at Diamondback Energy

Well, certainly from a quarterly perspective, from an operational perspective, we are pretty set on this year's plan that we have the ability obviously to ratchet things down. But as I tried to lay out in my prepared remarks, ratcheting things up right now is not really the right answer. Since, you are asking question specifically about buybacks, Neil we are going to stay disciplined in our approach to buying our stock back. When we look at mid-teens, returns or mid cycle pricing that's really not changing. I think what matters most Neil is that we are returning cash to shareholders and we have given our shareholders a flexibility to do with the cash as they see fit that's hard for the world to do right now Neil.

Neal Dingmann
Analyst at Truist Securities

No, I like that flexibility. I think it makes a lot of sense. I think it makes a lot of sense and I think investors know that. My second question just on new capital guidance specifically looking at the $150 million in inflation. the $125 million DUC benefit then the $60 million in midstream, incremental moves that you have talked about since '21 really just wondering is there potential for each of these to move further this year and then does this sort of '22 spend, set you up for a stable '23 production?

Travis D. Stice
Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer at Diamondback Energy

Yeah, Neil, I don't see any changes. I mean I think we are seeing inflationary pressures across the value chain. Fortunately, we take a lot of that into our guidance for the year. And fortunately we had a strong Q1 which if you annualize Q1, it would be towards the long end of the range. So it gives us more flexibility in the back half of the year and second to that, I think we are debating internally, what this '23 and beyond look like. We are not ready to give an answer to that today, but it doesn't mean that the plan is zero growth forever. I think we have the flexibility to ramp up a little bit if we needed to above the decision come from base summer for '23 and beyond.

Neal Dingmann
Analyst at Truist Securities

Great here. Thanks guys. Great results there.

Travis D. Stice
Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer at Diamondback Energy

Thanks, Neil.

Operator

Our next question comes from line of Arun Jayaram from J.P. Morgan. Your line is now open.

Arun Jayaram
Analyst at J.P. Morgan

You are on mute[Phonetic]. Yeah, I am sorry, I didn't hear my name. Sorry about that. Yeah, Good morning, gents. Travis, I wanted to get your thoughts obviously looking at the near-term performance of the stock, it clearly lagged your oil beta as well as our sense of execution, which has been good in the field. So I was wondering if you and our case could talk a little bit about the bear thesis on the stock as there is a number of properties on the market in the Permian and the market appears to be concerned about Diamondback executing perhaps a pro-cyclical, the type of M&A deal in this type of environment as the buyback pace has waned a bit. So I was wondering if you could maybe talk about that and just your broader thoughts on an M&A in this kind of $100 plus oil environment?

Travis D. Stice
Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer at Diamondback Energy

Arun, if I can control the price of stock, it would be a lot higher than it is today. Granted. But I can't. But what we can control is how we allocate capital, how we execute in the field, how we can generate more cash per barrels than anyone else. Those are the things that we really can control. It is -- we do hear a lot about this narrative that Diamondback is a serial acquirer, and let me just put it simply, large scale M&A today is quite frankly off the table. We have got nothing on our deal sheet that's considered more than a County[Phonetic] unlike the Ward that was just announced in my prepared remarks. This remains a seller's market and we are not going to underwrite M&A at today's oil prices, just like we are not going to underwrite repurchasing stock at today's oil prices. So I hope that's clear in the in both of those two points that I made Arun.

Arun Jayaram
Analyst at J.P. Morgan

Great. But it sounds like large scale M&A is off the table today, if I -- based on those comments?

Travis D. Stice
Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer at Diamondback Energy

Yes. Now reiterate --

Arun Jayaram
Analyst at J.P. Morgan

My follow-up --

Travis D. Stice
Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer at Diamondback Energy

Large scale M&A is off the scale. I will reiterate that point.

Arun Jayaram
Analyst at J.P. Morgan

Okay, that's clear. The second point I wanted to make is, just looking at the cash flow statement for calendar 2022. the model which is a bit below the strip, call it $6.2 billion, $6.4 billion of CFO, a little under $1.9 billion of capex. If we go through all of the uses of cash, including nearly $800 million of debt reduction year-to-date, we still get one -- over $1.2 billion of cash build this year. So I was wondering if you could talk about some of the priorities for this excess cash, I think you highlighted maybe a debt target for FANG stand-alone at $3.5 billion. But I was wondering maybe you could talk about uses of the cash if this high commodity price environment continues.

Travis D. Stice
Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer at Diamondback Energy

Yeah. Good question. Arun, I think $3.5 billion is a hard and fast number before we ramp up the shareholder returns, but certainly would like to take advantage of this market by taking out our 2026 notes and therefore not having any near-term maturities before 2029 which opens up the door for accelerated cash returns. I think that's going to happen sooner rather than later. Just generally, we do want to keep our cash balance. But we are not going to sit on the large cash balance and we think -- know that is the right answer. So we are not going to sit on it and therefore we are going to return it. This is an active discussion we have with the board every quarter-on-cash returns. And I think generally we are going to be supportive of more cash returns as the balance sheet is put in perfect[Phonetic] shape.

Arun Jayaram
Analyst at J.P. Morgan

Great, thanks a lot.

Operator

Our next question is from the line of Nitin Kumar, Wells Fargo. Your line is now open.

Nitin Kumar
Analyst at Wells Fargo Securities

Hi, good morning gentlemen and thanks for taking my questions. I want to start with Permian takeaway on the gas side has been a topic of discussion over the last three months or so. I just wanted to see what you guys are seeing on the ground and maybe if you can talk a little bit about your flow assurance into '23 and '24?

Travis D. Stice
Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer at Diamondback Energy

Yeah, I think people are on the midstream and the upstream side are coming together to solve this problem. We have seen a couple of announcements on expansions of a couple of existing prices in the last couple of weeks. We still think there needs to be a large price built -- new built price, which hopefully happens here in the next month or two from an announcement perspective and generally going back to what we have said last quarter, we have -- we don't have taken kind rights for all of our gas, but we do have flow assurance for all of our. So we are exposed to Waha we have hedged much of our exposure in '23. I think that's the tight spot and the gas is going to move, it's just a matter of price and I think there is a lot of constraints on Permian growth right now as we have seen in from others on trying to ramp activity into this constrained environment. So generally I think the gas thing just solves. I think both sides are as incentivizes as ever to build the pipes and that should clear the way for Permian growth in the out years.

Arun Jayaram
Analyst at J.P. Morgan

Great, thanks for that color. As my follow-up. Inflation did not features prominently in your release as it did for others, but you did talk about constraints, Kaes you also mentioned possibly looking for growth. Are there any specific areas as we look into 2023 that are tighter on the supply chain side and maybe talk a little bit about how you are contracting for those services right now?

Kaes Van't Hof
President and Chief Financial Officer at Diamondback Energy

Yeah, I would say right now everything's tight across the board, whether it's sand, casing, new high-spec rigs, frac crews, everything is very, very tight. We are doing our part by keeping our activity levels flat and running the 12 rigs we are running the three simul frac tractors, we need to the fourth spot crew, but we are having anecdotes of not being able to casing, not being able to sand. These are things that we have done our best to secure and I think we are in a really good position it kind of codifies what Travis was saying is if you are going to bet on someone in an inflationary environment, it's done back. We control costs as well as anybody in this business and that's what we are laser focused on in 2022.

Arun Jayaram
Analyst at J.P. Morgan

Great, thanks for the color, guys.

Operator

Our next question is from the line of Scott Hanold from RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open.

Scott Hanold
Analyst at RBC Capital Markets

Thanks. If I could kind of flash back to the shareholder returns, kind of strategy here and I think you guys have been pretty articulate in how you think of a big picture, but and Travis, I know you made a point of once here earlier in this call about, it doesn't make sense to buyback Diamondback stock at this point in time. So, when we think about how you returned that cash going forward. Should we anticipate a heightened oil price levels you are going to stick to say that $60 mid cycle price and the large quantum of return likely is going to be in a variable dividend, is that how we should think about it until there is a more material pullback in sort of the equities here?

Travis D. Stice
Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer at Diamondback Energy

Yeah, I think that's a reasonable approach. Scott, I also think you have to be cognizant of what our industry has done over the last 10 years with respect to share repurchases. We typically, as an industry, no change[Phonetic] to oil price and repurchase shares back all the way to top. We are trying to be mindful of that and disciplined in our approach and strive to be as flexible as I could about the way that we think about share repurchases as any other form of capital allocation within the cycle oil price. We -- mid cycle oil price is like a mid cycle price that doesn't change. Now, what could change is that we continue to accumulate cash. That's going to have an influence on our future capital allocation, both in the form of share repurchases and increased variable buybacks.

Kaes Van't Hof
President and Chief Financial Officer at Diamondback Energy

Yeah, I wouldn't say we have haven't had opportunities. I mean we have had opportunities even in Q2 to repurchase shares, given the volatility in this space. So there is enough volatility out there to give us opportunities. And I would say the share repurchase is more defensive and offensive and when things are going really, really well like they did in the first quarter, we make up the difference with the variable dividend.

Scott Hanold
Analyst at RBC Capital Markets

Got it. Appreciate that and on the first quarter results, what to me stood out is, was your oil price realizations were extremely strong. Can you talk about the dynamics, specifically in the quarter. And if that's continuing at this point in time, it looked like you all got an average premium to WTI pricing?

Travis D. Stice
Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer at Diamondback Energy

Yeah, I mean I would say is more one-off or anything with the volatility in Brent and David Brent in particular versus the WTI benefited us. I would say about 30% of our oil production receives the David Brent price for barrels going into Europe and that was in our favor there in Q1. So, I think generally we have always guided to 95% of WTI as our realization that might need to move up a little bit particularly with WTI going up as much as it has, but both it's going to be tough to hit a 100 consistently.

Scott Hanold
Analyst at RBC Capital Markets

Appreciate that. Thank you.

Travis D. Stice
Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer at Diamondback Energy

Thank you, Scott.

Operator

Our next question is from David Deckelbaum from Cowen. Your line is now open.

David Deckelbaum
Analyst at Cowen

Thanks, Travis and Kaes, Danny. Thanks for squeezing me in.

Travis D. Stice
Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer at Diamondback Energy

Of course, David.

David Deckelbaum
Analyst at Cowen

Travis. I wanted to just follow up on your comments that you made around capital efficiency degradation for deploying capital in today's environment, I guess how do you think about those conditions resulting in improved capital efficiency over time. I guess it sounds like the variables for that there really just isn't very much availability of equipment, significant delays. I know that you guys are benefiting from having pre-purchased a lot of some of the raw materials for this year's program, but I guess, are we to think about when you talk specifically around capital efficiency, if you stood up a rig today that the free cash payback period on that would be significantly longer than the year?

Travis D. Stice
Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer at Diamondback Energy

Yeah, I think there's two points. Your first was correct of capital efficiency. Those imply that the payout to that investment is much longer. Notwithstanding the fact to production from that to where we develop these assets with multi-well pads is quarters away. The second thing is that in a hyperinflationary environment like we are in the Permian right now, standing up of the reviews, for your example really means that we are in most instances, we are going to be taken that rig away from somebody else. So, and that applies to really all services. And so, if you are looking to increase the total barrel production around the Permian, you just really be reallocating. So it's not really helping the global supply-demand equation because that's really how tight services are out today. Yeah, more of a macro comment that the service market is a zero sum game right now and also us stepping on the accelerator would result in someone else not. And so we want to maintain that capital efficiency that we have and the the trust so we have earned with investors that this is the plan. We have seen in the past in this hyper inflationary environments that supply chains ultimately normalize. But it takes time for that normalization to occur, which is measured in quarters if not years for it to normalize. And when it does, then you start to have a greater opportunity to grow without degrading your capital efficiency.

David Deckelbaum
Analyst at Cowen

I appreciate the responses Travis. The last one from me is just on the Ward County acquisition, it sounds like you guys already drilling some of those locations there. I guess when you are making an acquisition right now, I know you said large scales are off the table, but are these smaller deal, should we think about these locations. Moving to the front of your program?

Travis D. Stice
Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer at Diamondback Energy

Yeah. These were some pretty higher returning locations mainly because acreage had an 84% in our eyes. So an extra 9% in our eyes was about a third of the deal value and so definitely completely undeveloped unit in the Delaware Basin are very competitive with Midland Basin units. So I would say this deal was the exception versus the norm. The deal took about six months ago. But if other opportunities like that come about, I think it's a good use of cash long as we are not impacting our cash return program.

David Deckelbaum
Analyst at Cowen

Thanks guys. That's a lot going forward.

Travis D. Stice
Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer at Diamondback Energy

Thanks, David.

Operator

Our next question is from Derrick Whitfield from Stifel. Your line is now open.

Derrick Whitfield
Analyst at Stifel Nicolaus

Good morning all. And congrats on your quarter and updates.

Travis D. Stice
Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer at Diamondback Energy

Thanks, Jeff.

Derrick Whitfield
Analyst at Stifel Nicolaus

Following up on David's first question, could you broadly outline the macro and investor conditions that would supported a decision to pursue growth over 5% per annum?

Travis D. Stice
Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer at Diamondback Energy

I think what you are asking us is to do is stock forecast in '23 growth rates. We are not really ready to talk about '23. I I think though Derrick if you look at the macro uncertainties that are still out there, let me try to enumerate some of those. You still got Iranian barrels, they are going to find the way in the market as well as you got Lumia[Phonetic], you have got continue a little bit of surplus capacity in the OPEC plus, those are all value that can come on to the equation, the supply-demand equation. You have also got continued demand impacts of the project particularly in the Asian market right now. And then lastly, to say bluntly the administration's comments are certainly causing a lot of uncertainty in the market both in the terms of regulator, taxation, legislation and negative rhetoric towards our industry and that creates uncertainty in our owners, our shareholders minds about what with the future of this industry really is. And so I think this represents on that front a pretty unique time to have a sober assessment of what an energy policy really needs to look like for the United States. One that recognizes all forms of energy, while at the same time have an aspirational goals about a more sustainable future.

Derrick Whitfield
Analyst at Stifel Nicolaus

Thanks, Travis. I certainly I appreciate those comments and understand those. As my second question I wanted to follow up on gas, egress and more specifically, your view on how you would like to position Diamondback in the value chain for LNG offtake with the understanding that you are an oil company at the core. Have you evaluated or would you consider direct offtake contracts with European utilities to better positioned Diamondback for higher realizations?

Travis D. Stice
Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer at Diamondback Energy

I think we consider it Derrick. We just want to have control over enough molecules to do anything meaningful and it goes back to taking kind -- we exchanged the custody of the molecule at the wellhead outside of 200 million a day we have on the Whistler pipeline are going in KD[Phonetic] in South Texas. So really don't have control of a lot of gas. As the company's growing through acquisition a lot of times the gas came dedicated already with taken kind rights for that operator.

Derrick Whitfield
Analyst at Stifel Nicolaus

Great update and thanks again for your time guys.

Travis D. Stice
Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer at Diamondback Energy

Thanks, Derrick.

Operator

Our next question is from the line of Scott Gruber with Citigroup. Your line is now open.

Scott Gruber
Analyst at Smith Barney Citigroup

Yes, good morning. I guess just within the conversation here this morning. You guys mentioned e-frac coming in during 4Q and how that will help efficiency and there's obviously been various drilling optimization software as it has been developed to help trim those drill times, is there an ability for Diamondback to grow volumes modestly without adding an additional rig or two and more frac time or is that just, just not possible?

Travis D. Stice
Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer at Diamondback Energy

I think it's certainly possible Scott and it's been part of our assessment of where we are headed. And also ties into this launch of capital efficient growth or capital efficient maintenance and it's amazing what the organization has done in terms of efficiencies three some frac fleets have doubled our efficiency on the frac side, on the drilling side like like you mentioned the clear fluids drilling system as well as moving onto electrification has reduced cost and cycle time. So, I certainly think it's possible and we continue to see improvements throughout this year and certainly going into our calculus for what is the next few years look like and Scott, when you, you think about the improvements that Kaes just talked about that are operationally and execution focused, those are made irrespective of commodity price or service and what's exciting about those and what I am so proud of our organization about is those are permanent. There are permanent savings that go forward and it's when you start doing the relative game to that of versus others performance that's what creates the spread, and this is not just a recent phenomenon. Our organization there stock trade has been these types of incremental improvements year-over-year regardless of the economic or commodity price backdrop. And I think it's fair that we are going to continue to do that. It gets harder in times like today but it doesn't mean that we still can't find differential ways to do more with less. And the second point is that as we fully embrace the more Northern Midland Basin with the assets that we acquired on QEP coming on the production mix back half of this year and fully in the 2023, those wells share you will see a natural uptick in our capital efficiency because we, those wells deliver more per dollar share.

Scott Gruber
Analyst at Smith Barney Citigroup

Got you. Yeah, I guess that was kind of part to my question is, is there enough kind of incremental gain on the kind of process efficiency coupled with the Martin County program hitting its full stride that is there enough combination there that you could actually achieve, call it 5% growth without adding an additional [Indecipherable]

Travis D. Stice
Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer at Diamondback Energy

Yeah, we will see. It's still early, so I think we are really focused on giving through the rest of this year in a very tight inflationary environment.

Scott Gruber
Analyst at Smith Barney Citigroup

Okay. thank you.

Travis D. Stice
Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer at Diamondback Energy

Thanks, Scott.

Operator

Our next question is from the line of Jeffrey Lambujon from Tudor Pickering. Your line is now open.

Jeoffrey Lambujon
Analyst at Tudor Pickering Holt

Good morning everyone and thanks for taking my questions. My first one is just a follow-up on some of the cost commentary from earlier if you wouldn't mind sharing some additional insight that you have got just given your history in the basin. But with your outlook for well cost per foot for the year. In particular, staying consistent with the initial guide even as other operators are talking up quarter to quarter changes with uncertainty beyond that as you go through the year. I just wanted to ask about what you are doing in the field to mitigate higher cost you might be experiencing or just plans to activity in the field to mitigate expected cost in the future just in terms of flexibility around few contract with field services, while still maintaining and upholding the low cost operations that Diamondbacks known for?

Travis D. Stice
Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer at Diamondback Energy

Yeah, good question, Jeff. I mean we have obviously baked in some inflation into these costs and then into the year at a lower well costs. Then we went into '21 even in the face of inflationary environment last year, but generally there are resources provided efficient price and sometimes we decide not to keep working with those particular service providers. So I think our ability to control costs, is because we control a lot of the process with our business partners on the service side. We recognize they need to make margin but if there is another provider that can provide the same service for less cost, we will go that route. And we have done that a few times this year. So that's helped us control things a little bit and Jeff, those were true strategic comments that Kaes just made, but will look tactically what we continue to see is our operations organization getting to TD faster on a quarterly basis that's goes back to the comments I made earlier, this is what we do. So the getting the TV[Phonetic] faster translates to cost savings that become permanent. Also completing more lateral feet per day as an efficiency gain this year is another one of those tactical things that we are doing that's helping us hold the line on an increase in cost backdrop. So in just to emphasize, we always get the question that ask, what is it that makes the secret sauce of Diamondback in our low cost operations and you just pointed out and it's really not one of two things, it's really a consistent laser focus on every single decision that we make that saves dollars and the cumulative effect of that laser like focus allows Diamondback just not on a quarterly basis, but now almost for a 10-year time period maintain the lowest cost operations and the best execution in the Permian.

Jeoffrey Lambujon
Analyst at Tudor Pickering Holt

Perfect, thanks for that. I appreciate the detail on the reminders. My second one is just on the balance sheet really just around what you see is what's left on the opportunity for further strengthening from here. I know you all talked about and flagged that 2026 is in the past and spoke to debt targets that I can also be flexible, but it would seem like you are within striking distance here of an optimal balance sheet position for the medium to long term. So just wanted to get your latest thoughts on that given the progress you have made so far, especially recently and I apologize if I missed this earlier.

Travis D. Stice
Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer at Diamondback Energy

No, I think we feel fine with everything we had do 2029 or later. Sitting out there and we take till 2026 years, which should be in a matter of months, not years we will be in a position to have discussions about increasing shareholder returns beyond what we already do it.

Jeoffrey Lambujon
Analyst at Tudor Pickering Holt

Perfect, thank you.

Operator

Our next question is from Nicholas Pope from Seaport Research. Your line is open.

Nick Pope
Analyst at Seaport Global Securities

Good morning, everyone.

Travis D. Stice
Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer at Diamondback Energy

Hey, Nick.

Nick Pope
Analyst at Seaport Global Securities

First, I wanted to commend you guys on that ESG kind of real-time data provider because I think it's probably one of the best in the sector. But you provide the data so I have got a question about a little bit. You kind of talk about kind of gross gas flared and I saw in 1Q, it kind of creeped up from kind of where it was in fourth quarter, where it was in first quarter of last year, it's kind of a percent of total like gross gas production. Just curious like is that, what drives that. Is there some seasonality in that, is it -- I mean is it limited capacity to move gas. I mean I just trying to understand a little bit about kind of the movement in that -- in that metric, which is a big part of kind of the CO2 emissions. I think going forward.

Travis D. Stice
Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer at Diamondback Energy

Sure, Nick. Two things, the first comment on disclosure. I appreciate you saying that our Board has mandated us to not only be best-in-class on actual performance but also best in class in disclosure and there's a lot of our organization that is focused on delivering these results and we are proud to report them. And I think those who haven't had a chance on the call to look at the ES&G detail in our investor deck, which is up on our website. I strongly encourage you to do that. The second part of your question, Nick, was gross gas and that's recently reported that way that you can back calculate the and verifier numbers, but they had to do with the acquired volumes, Kaes?

Kaes Van't Hof
President and Chief Financial Officer at Diamondback Energy

It's all due to plant turnarounds that I mean we put out slides that explains that 75, 80% of our flaring is due to downstream issues and we are trying to push and incentivize our business partners on the midstream side to do better in terms of compline sometimes through contracts where we pay them more per Mcf to take little less than 1% but really timing wise, Q1 lot of turnarounds from some of our business partners on the midstream side. There is some seasonality to it, but that's why we push them for more conductivity among their peers so that if their plant goes down, they can send it to another plant or to a peer and we will still pay them. So part of the whole value chain is we need our friends on the G&P side to work with us here. And Nick, we view that as a win-win or lose-lose. So we're not trying to position ourselves as a win versus lose on the G&P side. We know that emissions from the product we produce need to be eliminated and minimized as quickly as we can and that's the reason that we spent time in conversations like this is. Talking about our G&P business partners as well as including some slides in the in the ES&G detailed part of the deck that highlights what Diamondback was responsible for and what our midstream guys who are responsible for both planned and unplanned outages.

Nick Pope
Analyst at Seaport Global Securities

Got it. That's actually very helpful. I appreciate it. And kind of further onto the kind of the other components of this. You kind of talk about the electrification of compression of parts of the frac fleets. Is that something that is you are going to be showing up as part of the LOE kind of improvements that you are working on, is that where it shows up or is it primarily going to be something that is reflected in these ESG metrics, when you think about that move towards the electrification of those assets?

Travis D. Stice
Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer at Diamondback Energy

Well, electrification in the field help sell or electrifying all of our fields is not only environmentally friendly but also cost friendly. Getting rid of infield power generation, but on the frac side and the drilling rig side and moving rigs and frac fleets to electrification will help lower costs on the capital side, but also will lower our combustion percentage of Scope 1 emissions.

Nick Pope
Analyst at Seaport Global Securities

Got it. That's all I really needed. I appreciate the time this morning. Thank you.

Travis D. Stice
Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer at Diamondback Energy

Thanks, Nick.

Operator

Our next question is from Doug Leggate from Bank of America. Your line is open.

Doug Leggate
Analyst at Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Hey, guys. Yeah, I guess pieces and Qs are directly correlated with the commentary around Europe variable dividend. Thanks for for getting me on this morning's. It's good to talk to Travis. Travis, I got a hit there's right upfront. Look if you, how can you say you think your stock is undervalued but you are not affected by. Variable dividends take cash off the balance sheet. They don't get capitalized in the business, which is a finite inventory. How do you strike the market to pay you for a variable dividend. To me, in this business it doesn't make a lot of sense. I just want your perspective.

Travis D. Stice
Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer at Diamondback Energy

Yeah there. Listen, we have tried to outline exactly our thoughts rationale behind all of those things. My comments on the stock price is really a function of what I can control and not control and I can't control the actual market what the stock is -- what the actual stock prices is. We tried to be very disciplined and we are very disciplined and the calculus, we used to buy anything, whether it's our stock, whether it's acquisitions or whether it's making drill well decisions and have tried to outline the mid cycle oil price at $60 a barrel. I think that could change as we continue to accumulate free cash. id cycle oil price won't change but our ability to buy more shares back will change, but we made a commitment to distribute at least 50% of our free cash flow and other than on the balance sheet, which we said we are not going to do. We are going to honor that commitment and return at least 50%.

Doug Leggate
Analyst at Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Yeah. I understand completely the rationale. It's intellectual to be perhaps but equity volatility correlates with balance sheet structure so EOG Pioneer some of your other peers are choosing to have net debt zero so and will carry on the debate. I want to ask about the a more specific question to the current commodity environment and host impact in your cash flow outlook, specifically cash taxes for this might be for Kaes, we have got a much higher gas price obviously, we have got a backwardate curve obviously, I assume that's accelerating inflection in when you get to a full cash tax position. So if you can just give us an idea what you, what you see happening on that regard and I will leave it there. Thanks.

Travis D. Stice
Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer at Diamondback Energy

Yeah, good question, Doug, we raised our cash tax percentage this quarter because we are running a $100 oil and our initial guidance. And in February, there's still some protection this year. We do have about $1 billion of NOLs that will protect us next year, so we won't be full cash taxpayer next year in 2023 somewhere in wells are pushout can use this year's revenues next year and then commodity prices stay where they are. Full cash taxpayer by 2024.

Doug Leggate
Analyst at Bank of America Merrill Lynch

So just to be clear that even with the forward curve case you are still get through the end of next year?

Travis D. Stice
Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer at Diamondback Energy

Yeah, I mean, partially I think our protection will decrease next year, but there will be some protection and then forecast taxpayer 2024.

Doug Leggate
Analyst at Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Got it.

Travis D. Stice
Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer at Diamondback Energy

Thanks, Doug.

Operator

Our next question is from Leo Mariani from KeyBanc. Your line is open.

Leo Mariani
Analyst at KeyBanc Capital Markets

Hey, guys. I just wanted to follow up a little bit on some of the inflation commentary here. I just wanted to kind of clarify sort of what I heard it sounds like you will have all your equipment here for your 2022 program, but just wanted to get a sense if generally that the prices for the big ticket items on the service side are locked in for 2022 or perhaps could you see, i will just call it some inflationary risk in the capex there may be in the second half. And then as we look to 2023, is that where you think that inflation could be maybe a larger problem if commodity prices are well bid later this year?

Travis D. Stice
Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer at Diamondback Energy

Yeah, I mean, it really dependent. I mean it depends what happens in the situation with Russia and Ukraine as I talk as it relates to pipe costs. We thought pipe costs were going to come down the back half of the year, it doesn't look like that's going to happen this year. It might happen next year, I mean, I think there's a little push full Leo with this business tends to sort out supply chain issues over time and as commodity prices stay stronger for longer, some of the tightness will get sorted out. So I certainly am not going to make a prediction that 2023 inflation is going to be as much as 2022. But we are certainly seeing inflationary pressures across all the big ticket items right now and some of that pricing for the big ticket items is incentivizing newbuilds which tends to lower prices. So I think there's a little bit of push, there's still items on 2023.

Kaes Van't Hof
President and Chief Financial Officer at Diamondback Energy

Look, we will be affected by inflation. No two ways about it, but the best that we have always made here internally is that we will be affected the least of anyone else because of our efficient operations and and you see it in the first quarter of this year, we were all affected by to say inflation and we were at the low end of our capex guide for the quarter. Recognizing that's going to be a challenge to continue that performance, I still bet on margins of our organization to deliver.

Leo Mariani
Analyst at KeyBanc Capital Markets

Okay, that's helpful. And certainly I can see that from where you came out in 1Q on capex, and it looks like on second quarter, capex guidance you seem equally confident that you can kind of keep the cost under control. So is this something that could maybe creep up more in the second half this year or do you kind of have rigs and crews and pipe locked in here in '22?

Kaes Van't Hof
President and Chief Financial Officer at Diamondback Energy

I think we feel really good about the budget, obviously we are on pace for the low end. I think that's going to be tough, but we feel really good about this year's budget.

Leo Mariani
Analyst at KeyBanc Capital Markets

Okay, thanks guys.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from Paul Cheng from Scotiabank. Your line is open.

Paul Cheng
Analyst at Scotia Howard Weill

Thank you. Good morning, gents.

Travis D. Stice
Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer at Diamondback Energy

Good morning, Paul.

Paul Cheng
Analyst at Scotia Howard Weill

I think first is for Kaes. In the cash side, I just want to confirm in that counting that you guys at top you will estimate for the full year, what is the cash taxpay and then you apply the same tax rate in each quarter roughly flat on that and not necessarily based on saying that later in the year that you may have already use some more on that in the way. So you will have a higher cash tax and also that if we assume, let us say, call it an average $100 per WTI price for next year, I assume the cash tax rate will be higher. Any rough guidance that you can give. That's the first question.

Travis D. Stice
Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer at Diamondback Energy

Well, yeah. I will take the second part first. Certainly, the cash tax guidance would be higher next year if we have these commodity prices Ignite. I think it's basically pretty, pretty close to a full cash taxpayer outside of $1 billion of protection. And then second I think your question related to one of the cash exit the system for cash taxes and we will be making payments. Our first payment's in June for the first half of the year and then quarterly thereafter. Now that we are heading to cash tax land.

Paul Cheng
Analyst at Scotia Howard Weill

And is so is the cash tax say following the year would be about the same or that they still have quite a fluctuation?

Travis D. Stice
Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer at Diamondback Energy

Yeah. We saw a fluctuation. Our burden in Q2 is expected to be higher than our burden was in Q1. Excess of cash going to leave this system in Q2.

Paul Cheng
Analyst at Scotia Howard Weill

I see, okay. And the second question is that for this year look like from a equipment availability and also not in the surface price you guys already done quite not. For next year. And any kind of what percentage you can pull why, how much of your surface for capex or the equipment that you already lock in with a set price or what that is 100% subject to the market condition at this point?

Travis D. Stice
Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer at Diamondback Energy

I would say most of it is subject to market conditions. We did, we talked about e-we[Phonetic] we signed a deal with Halliburton that price is fixed and our sand price is fixed, so the rest is going to fluctuate and we will see where the market goes over the next few months.

Paul Cheng
Analyst at Scotia Howard Weill

All right. Okay, thank you.

Travis D. Stice
Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer at Diamondback Energy

Thanks, Paul.

Operator

At this time, I would like to turn the call back over to Travis Stic,e CEO for closing remarks.

Travis D. Stice
Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer at Diamondback Energy

Thank you again to everyone participating in today's call. If you have got any questions, please reach out to us using the contact information provided.

Operator

[Operator Closing Remarks]

Corporate Executives
  • Adam Lawlis
    Vice President, Investor Relations
  • Travis D. Stice
    Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer
  • Kaes Van't Hof
    President and Chief Financial Officer
Analysts

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