Mastercard Q2 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
July 27, 2022

There are 14 speakers on the call.

Operator

Good morning, and welcome to the Mastercard Inc. Q2 2022 Earnings Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers' remarks, there will be a question and answer session. Thank you.

Operator

Warren Nisha, you may begin your conference.

Speaker 1

Thank you, Julie. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us for our Q2 2022 earnings call. With me today are Michael Mevak, our Chief Executive Officer and Sachin Mehra, our Chief Financial Officer. Following comments from Michael and Sachin, the operator will announce your opportunity to get into the queue for the Q and A session. It is only then that the queue will open for questions.

Speaker 1

You can access our earnings release, supplemental performance data and the slide deck that accompany this call Our comments today regarding our financial results will be on a non GAAP currency neutral basis unless otherwise noted. Both the release And the slide deck include reconciliations of non GAAP measures to their GAAP reported amounts. Finally, as set forth in more detail in our earnings release, I'd like to remind everyone that today's call will include forward looking statements regarding Mastercard's future performance. Actual performance could differ materially from these forward looking statements. Information about the factors that could affect future performance are summarized at the end of our earnings release and in our recent SEC filings.

Speaker 1

Replay of this call will be posted on our website for 30 days. With that, I will now turn the call over to our Chief Executive Officer, Michael Miebach.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Warren. Good morning, everyone. Starting with the key highlights for the quarter. We delivered strong revenue and earnings growth with further improvement in our underlying operating metrics, notably in cross border travel. Quarter 2 adjusted net revenues were up 27% and adjusted operating income up 40% versus a year ago on a non GAAP currency neutral basis, excluding special items.

Speaker 2

On the macroeconomic front, we continue to monitor a number of factors that have both positive and negative influences on economic growth. Inflationary pressures have remained persistent, and we are now seeing central banks taking even more aggressive steps to reduce inflation as we have seen in the Fed yesterday. The situation has been compounded by geopolitical tensions and supply chain constraints, which have eased from pandemic peaks, but remain in many industries. Despite this, unemployment rates remain low, wages are rising and consumer savings levels remain high. With this backdrop, consumer spending and particularly travel related spending remains strong.

Speaker 2

Looking at this from a geographic standpoint, U. S. Retail spending remains healthy as consumers navigate a high inflation environment. Spending has been aided by Strong job creation and the buildup of excess savings during the pandemic. According to our Mastercard spending policy, which is based on all payment types, including cash and check, U.

Speaker 2

S. Retail sales ex auto, ex gas were up 6% in the Q2 versus a year ago. In Europe, Spending trends are positive, although the risks related to both the supply of natural gas and higher interest rates remain headwinds. Growth in Latin America continues to moderate following a strong rebound in 2021. Asia has generally lagged the recovery of other regions, While COVID related requirements have been relaxed in several countries, strong restrictions remain in others.

Speaker 2

Asia continues to have significant upside potential. Looking more specifically at our switched volume trends. Domestic volumes continued to show strong growth, which With notable strength in airline, lodging and restaurant spend. We've seen some shifts in spend towards gas and groceries from discretionary categories like home furnishings in the U. S.

Speaker 2

Cross border continues its strong recovery as border restrictions continue to be relaxed. Cross border travel in quarter 2 Has now reached 118 percent of 2019 levels. Cross border card not present ex travel continued to hold up well. Notwithstanding the strength in consumer spending, we will continue to watch the environment closely, including fiscal and monetary policy responses to high inflation and their potential impact on spending. Within this environment, we will continue to be nimble in managing our We have the flexibility to respond quickly across a number of levers as we showed in 2020.

Speaker 2

Having said this, we will continue to invest in the business to drive top and bottom line growth over the longer term. We have a well diversified business model, and we are executing against our 3 key strategic priorities: Expanding in payments, extending our services and embracing new networks. And here's an update on how we're progressing against each one of those. First, we're expanding in payments by continuing to grow card volume, driving acceptance growth and leaning into innovation to capture other prioritized We're driving growth in card volume with new consumer, small business, co brand and travel wins globally. In Canada, we're excited to announce that we secured a new partnership with CIBC that creates an opportunity for material share shift for Mastercard with the bank.

Speaker 2

We also renewed our relationship with the Royal Bank of Canada, including a range of services that will enable us to grow Our proprietary and co brand volumes with them. In the U. S, we established a new partnership agreement with the U. S. Bank, which extends our current debit, Credit, co brand and small business credit programs.

Speaker 2

It includes several new products, including the 1st large scale launch of a consumer credit product, A small business credit offering and the development of buy now pay later installment solutions. We're excited to announce that we have completed the conversion of Gap existing 10,000,000 card members to Mastercard across the Old Navy, Gap, Banana Republic and Aetzel brands. We renewed and expanded our co brand with Brooks Brothers issued by Citi, and we have renewed and expanded our co brand with Barnes and Noble in partnership with Barclays. Outside of North America, we have secured several new wins and renewals, including a number of deals that position us well in Asia Pacific as the region rebounds from the pandemic. In Australia, we've extended our partnership with Bendigo and Adelaide Bank Limited, enabling us to maintain exclusivity with Bendigo and convert several of their regional debit portfolios.

Speaker 2

We're pleased to announce that National Australia Bank and Mastercard have signed an agreement to retain and grow the Mastercard components of Citigroup Australia's Consumer business that was acquired by NAB. This marks the 1st significant issuing relationship between the 2 companies in years, And we look forward to partnering to grow these portfolios. In Hong Kong, we partner with Citibank and HKT's loyalty program and digital ventures arm, The Club to launch the Citi's The Club credit card. In India, we're happy to report that the embargo on new issuance has been lifted. Issuers have restarted card issuance and they are eager to expand business with us.

Speaker 2

An example is YES Bank, where we signed a consumer credit agreement that will enable us to maintain a majority share and include the commitment to scale our world elite portfolio. We've worked hard to expand our travel oriented portfolios, which positions us well to capitalize on the strong recovery of travel. For example, in Asia Pacific, we into a 10 year commercial card issuance deal with trip.com, one of the world's largest online travel agency. In the UAE, we renewed our co brand portfolio with Marriott. In the U.

Speaker 2

S, we have renewed our long standing co brand relationship with Amtrak. And we've extended our co brand partnership with Virgin Atlantic in the U. K, a partnership that will leverage our test and learn, innovation labs and SessionM loyalty assets. We're also driving growth in payments by continuing to

Speaker 3

accept this. Mastercard has

Speaker 2

now accepted over 90,000,000 locations worldwide, and we have more than doubled the number of acceptance locations over the last 5 years. Mastercard has been driving tap on phone innovation, enabling billions of active smartphones to become potential acceptance devices with over 130 deployments across 55 markets. This includes working with Apple to enable acceptance of Mastercard contactless cards And digital payments through their tap to pay on iPhone capability allows businesses to accept payments directly on their iPhones. Mastercard is further empowering the ecosystem through our cloud commerce capabilities, which enables our channel partners to quickly deliver cost effective Acceptance. It also provides easy access to a range of payment solutions and services, including tap on phone, QR, installments, loyalty, data insights and more via the Mastercard Cloud.

Speaker 2

In addition, we continue to drive adoption of our click to pay online guest checkout capability. Click to pay is now enabled in over 20 markets across all regions and transactions have been growing quarter Over quarter. We're expanding in payments through innovations like Mastercard installments. Our open loop buy now, pay later program has been very well received Mastercard's installment is now soon to be live with Saudi National Bank and several new partners adding their support to the program. Examples include Cross River Bank, Evolv Bank and Trust, Jiffy, Live Oak, Mokka Financials and WebBank in the U.

Speaker 2

S. As well as HSBC, NetWest and JPMorgan's payments division in the U. K. In addition, Apple recently announced Apple Pay Later, which Finally, we're driving growth in payments by leading into innovation to capture a prioritized set of new payment flows, Including disbursements and remittances, commercial point of sale, B2B accounts payable and consumer bill pay. This is at the heart of the investments we've been making to develop a range of capabilities that span cards, account to account payments, push payments and blockchain.

Speaker 2

We're at various stages of scaling our capabilities across these different flows, and we're making steady progress. For example, we're expanding network reach Through new cross border services relationships with partners like Doha Bank and Vodafone in Qatar and UPT, a leading money transfer operator in Turkey, We are targeting specific use cases and scaling distributions through B2B partnerships with Mastercard Send. A few examples, Caesars Sportsbook We'll leverage them for instant payment of online winnings. And PaySafe will integrate Mastercard Send into their payments platform to enhance the payout capabilities offered to their merchant customers in the U. K.

Speaker 2

And the EU. Now turning to services. Our services capabilities have proven to be a tremendous growth driver and differentiator for our business, built on a foundation of investments and experiences built over the years. Looking forward, we continue to see a significant opportunity for services in 3 primary areas. First, services will continue to enhance the value of payments.

Speaker 2

Services make payments intelligent, safe and secure. For example, our identity check payment authentication service is driving double digit improvements in the approval rates. We are working with Postapay in Italy to support the deployment of their issuing portfolio, assist in growing their acquiring business and enhance the customer engagement approach. And our consulting team in Europe is engaging with ING to help them create a seamless payment experience for their clients. 2nd, we see the needs of our customers expanding beyond payments.

Speaker 2

We can leverage our full suite of differentiated services to address these needs. A recent example Travelodge was utilizing our test and learn capabilities to support optimization of new investments in their business. And third, our services can be deployed to support new networks, making our open banking and digital identity propositions even stronger. With these adjacent networks, it's our services that will enable us to establish a differentiated position to scale and win. For example, we recently launched a new biometric checkout program.

Speaker 2

The program outlines a set of standards for banks, merchants and tech providers, Helping to ensure the security and privacy of personal data when people pay with a smile or with a wave. Now beyond expanding in payments and expanding in services, our 3rd key strategic priority area is embracing new networks. As a reminder, Our current focus is on 2 areas, Open Banking and Digital Identity. We're leveraging our Finicity and IR acquisitions to extend our Open Banking footprint, Grow our customer base and deliver new solutions. This quarter, we expanded our Engage partner network to include our open banking services with new fintech partnerships, including Douala, Synctera, I2C and others.

Speaker 2

They can now use our open banking capabilities to easily build and implement solutions for their end customers across a range of use cases, from lending to payments to financial management. In addition, we recently launched a Global StartPath Open Banking program. This program enables us to co innovate with startup fintechs Like Daffy, Finantia, MMOB, Mono and Pay Wallet as we support their path to scale. We expanded our Open Banking product offering as well. We announced Pay by Link in Europe.

Speaker 2

Telal's businesses suspend payment request Through invoice, email, SMS or social media chat. This can expedite the payment of invoices in a cost efficient way, 1,000 small and medium sized businesses. In the digital identity space, Icarta continues Strong performance signing over 200 new deals and expansions since we acquired the company just over 1 year ago. This includes many of the leading buy now, and crypto companies. It also includes real time payment software providers like ACI Worldwide, With leveraging Acarta's capabilities to help their global merchant network more accurately identify fraudulent transactions.

Speaker 2

Open Banking and Digital Identity are attractive and growing opportunities, and Mastercard is uniquely positioned to be successful in both. So in summary, our business fundamentals remain strong. We delivered robust revenue and earnings growth again. We're executing against our strategic priorities in payments, services and new networks. We have fortified Our strong position with travel oriented portfolios to capitalize on the continued recovery of travel.

Speaker 2

On the macroeconomic front, we continue to monitor influencing economic and spending growth. And with all of that, we will continue to manage our expenses carefully. That said, we will also continue to invest in the business to drive top and bottom line growth over the longer term. Sachin, over to you.

Speaker 3

Thanks, Michael. Now turning to Page 3, which shows our financial performance for the quarter on a currency neutral basis, excluding special items and the impact of gains and losses on our equity investments. Net revenue was up 27%, reflecting the continued execution of our strategy and the ongoing recovery in spending. Acquisitions contributed 1 ppt to this growth. Operating expenses increased 12%, including a 5 ppt increase from acquisitions.

Speaker 3

Operating income was up 40%, which includes a 1 pbt decrease related to acquisitions. EPS was up 40% year over year to $2.56 which includes a $0.05 contribution from share repurchases. During the quarter, we repurchased $2,400,000,000 worth of stock and an additional $448,000,000 through July 25, 2022. So now let's turn to Page 4, where you can see the operational metrics for the Q2. Worldwide gross dollar volume or GDV Increased by 14% year over year on a local currency basis.

Speaker 3

On the same basis, if you exclude Russia from prior period, GDV increased by 19%. In the U. S, GDV increased by 10% with credit growth of 25%, Reflecting the recovery of spending on travel. Debit declined by 2%. Excluding the impact of a roll off of a customer agreement, Debit increased by 1%.

Speaker 3

Outside of the U. S, volume increased 16% with credit growth of 19% and debit growth of 13%. Cross quarter volume was up 58% globally for the quarter, reflecting continued improvement in travel related cross border. Turning to Page 5, Switch transactions grew 12% year over year in Q2. Excluding Russia from the prior year, switch transactions grew 22% year over year in Q2.

Speaker 3

Card Present and Card Not Present growth rates remain strong. Card Present growth was aided in part by increases in contactless penetration In all regions when excluding Russia. In addition, card growth was 5% or 9% if we exclude cards issued by Russian banks from the prior year card comp. Globally, there are 3,000,000,000 Mastercard and Maestro branded cards issued. Now let's turn to Page 6 for the highlights on the revenue line items, again described on a currency neutral basis excluding special items unless otherwise noted.

Speaker 3

The increase in net revenue of 27% was primarily driven by domestic and cross border transaction and volume growth as well as growth in services, partially offset by growth in rebates and incentives. Acquisitions contributed approximately 1 ppt to this growth. Looking quickly at the individual revenue line items, domestic assessments were up 13%, while worldwide GDV grew 14%. Cross border volume fees increased 61%, while cross border volumes increased 58%. The 3 ppt difference is primarily due to geographic mix.

Speaker 3

Transaction processing fees were up 22%, while switch transactions grew 12%. The 10 ppt difference is primarily due to favorable mix, FX related revenues and pricing. Other revenues were up 23%, including a 3 ppt contribution from acquisitions. The remaining growth was driven by our cyber and intelligence and data and services solutions. Finally, rebates and incentives were up 23%, reflecting the strong growth in volumes and transactions and new and renewed deal activity.

Speaker 3

Note, rebates and incentives as a percentage of gross revenue is higher relative to Q1 2022, primarily due to volumes and related revenues Generated from a sizable customer in Russia in Q1 with no related incentive agreement on such volumes. Moving now to Page 7, you can see that on a currency neutral basis, total operating expenses increased 12%, including a 5 ppt impact from acquisitions. Excluding acquisitions, the remaining increase was primarily due to increased spending on personnel to support the continued execution of our strategic initiatives as well as unfavorable foreign exchange related expenses due to the remeasurement of monetary assets and liabilities. Turning to Page 8, let's discuss the operating metrics for the 1st 3 weeks of July. For your reference, to help you understand the trends in the business ex Russia, We have included an appendix later in this deck to show all the data points from the schedule if you excluded activity from Russian issued cards from prior periods.

Speaker 3

As a general comment, our metrics are holding up well in July. Going forward, however, the year over year growth metrics will face tougher comps as we begin lapping periods when COVID related restrictions eased and spending levels started to rebound. Going through the metrics in turn, starting with switch volumes. For the 1st 3 weeks of July, we grew switch volumes 18% Year over year down 3 ppt versus Q2. Switch transactions grew 10% year over year through the 1st 3 weeks of July, down 2 ppt from Q2.

Speaker 3

Overall, cross border volumes through the 1st 3 weeks of July grew 54% year over year, down 4 ppt versus Q2. Cross border travel had another quarter of strong growth as border restrictions continue to be lifted. In the 1st 3 weeks of July, cross border travel was up 89% year over year, down 55 ppt versus Q2 due to more difficult year ago comps as I just noted. Cross border travel is now at 126 percent of 2019 levels, up 8 points versus Q2. Cross border card not present excluding travel was up 16% year over year in July.

Speaker 3

The increase of 9 ppt compared to Q2 reflects a reduced headwind from crypto purchases and the timing of Turning to Page 9, I want to share our thoughts on the remainder of 2022. Let me start by saying that we have strong momentum with our customers. We continue to enhance our product and service offerings and that our business fundamentals remain very strong. Consumer spending remains robust Cross border travel has improved more quickly than expected as border restrictions ease and consumers increase their spending towards travel. And there is more room to grow as some of the customers remain either restricted or have yet to recover to historical levels of growth.

Speaker 3

For instance, based on our switch volumes, Asia, which represented approximately 14% of cross border inbound travel in 2019, It's only at approximately 60% of 2019 levels in Q2. Similarly, the U. S, U. K. And Canada, which represented Approximately 20% of cross border inbound travel in 2019 is at about 110% of 2019 levels, Still well below the historical trajectory.

Speaker 3

Specifically, if inbound travel to these three countries had continued to grow at the historical 3 year CAGR We would have expected to be at approximately 135% of 2019 levels rather than approximately 110%. We are well positioned to capitalize on this growth with our travel oriented portfolios. As Michael mentioned, there are a number of macroeconomic That could influence future economic growth, employment and wage levels, consumer savings levels, persistent and elevated inflation and rising interest rates geopolitical tensions in particular. We are monitoring each of these, but on balance, expect a modest improvement in cross border travel versus 2019 levels and a generally resilient consumer spending through the remainder of 2022. Taking this all into account, including our well diversified business model, we are increasing our expectations for net revenue growth For the full year 2022 to a low 20s rate on a currency neutral basis, excluding acquisitions and special items.

Speaker 3

Acquisitions are forecasted to add about 1 ppt to this growth, while foreign exchange is expected to be a headwind of 5 ppt to 6 ppt for the year, primarily due to the strengthening of the U. S. Dollar versus the euro. It is worth highlighting that this performance is despite the cessation of our Russia operations in Q1. For the year, we expect operating expenses to grow at the low end of a low double digit rate on a currency neutral basis, excluding acquisitions and special items.

Speaker 3

This reflects continued investment in our people and strategic priorities as well as impacts from FX related expenses primarily due to remeasurement of monetary assets and liabilities. Acquisitions are forecasted to add about 4 ppt to this growth, While foreign exchange is expected to be a tailwind of approximately 3 to 4 ppt for the year. We are prepared to quickly adjust our operating expense base as we did in 2020 should circumstances dictate. With respect to the Q3 of 2022, year over year net revenue is expected to grow at the High end of a high teens rate, again on a currency neutral basis, excluding acquisitions and special items. Sequentially, This reflects continued strong consumer spending, including a modest improvement in cross border travel spending trends relative to 2019, Reduced FX related revenues as a result of lower anticipated FX volatility.

Speaker 3

And finally, The lapping of a stronger year ago quarter as the recovery took hold last year. Acquisitions are forecasted to add about 1 ppt to this growth, foreign exchange is expected to be a headwind of approximately 7 bps to 8 bps for the quarter. From an operating expense standpoint, We expect Q3 operating expenses to grow at the high end of a low double digit rate versus a year ago Foreign exchange is expected to be a tailwind of approximately 5 ppt for the quarter. Other items to keep in mind, On the other income and expense line, we are at an expense run rate of approximately $115,000,000 per quarter given the prevailing interest rates. This excludes gains and losses on our equity investments, which are excluded from our non GAAP metrics.

Speaker 3

And finally, we expect a tax rate of between We expect the tax rate of approximately 19% in Q4. And with that, I will turn the call back over to Warren.

Speaker 1

Thanks, Sachin. Julie, we're now ready for the question and answer session.

Operator

Thank you. And your first question comes from Archita Raghav from Bernstein. Please go ahead. Hi, good morning. So Michael touched in, can you comment on the media reports yesterday, potential bill for introducing routing choice for credit cards.

Operator

I know the Durban amendment for debit has Market share, how could a credit routing choice, how could be implemented given many alternative networks Don't have those capabilities. And then finally, just taking a step back, can you talk about routing decisions for merchants that why they Choose Mastercard or might choose Mastercard, but they have a choice of alternative. Thank you.

Speaker 2

Harshita, let me start off with that.

Speaker 3

This is so we read

Speaker 2

the same article. Clearly, it's early stages because we haven't seen the bill yet. So We are all speculating here, I think, what might happen. So we'll engage. We'll try to find out more over the weeks months to come.

Speaker 2

But if you just assume for a moment that the article would be complete and this would actually happen, few things come to mind that are straightforward from our perspective. First of all, we believe in competition. We believe in a level Competitive landscape and playing field, and we've invested massive amounts in safety and security, And we focus on providing consumer choice, different ways of paying credit, debit, whatever it is. So that's been our strategy. So we're going to look at this proposal, a proposed bill through the lens.

Speaker 2

So that's one that's the starting point for us. Some of the questions that you touched on, sub points here. What are the practicalities? What are the technical aspects of How many providers are ready that have made the same kind of investments to really ensure that the consumer can rely Yes, on safety and protection and so forth. Those are open questions.

Speaker 2

We'll have to see what the regulation actually foresees. Overall, the concept of interchange is a balancing factor in the ecosystem is one that has Serve the ecosystem, including the consumers well in terms of rich propositions and all of that. We'll have to see what becomes out of that. Those are a whole range of About the puts and takes around this proposed bill.

Operator

Thank you.

Speaker 1

Next question please.

Operator

Your next question comes from Sanjay Sakhrani from KBW. Please go ahead.

Speaker 4

Thanks. Good morning. Sachin, you talked about what's being baked into your forward view On cross border being a modest improvement in cross border, but you talked also about the long runway you still believe you have in terms of cross border. Could you just help us think about what's factored in versus what practically can happen as we look forward? Thanks.

Speaker 3

Sure, Sanjay. So what I shared was that we are thinking ahead in terms of Cross border travel seeing a modest improvement relative to 2019. And as you can see in our metrics, cross border travel in Q2 was At 118% and in the 1st 3 weeks of July at 126%. Without getting too specific as to what exactly we're Kind of building in there. The point we've got is the following.

Speaker 3

We expect a modest improvement in travel when indexed back to 2019 It's predicated on certain data points. And the data points are, if you think about what's going on in Asia Pacific, we've talked about how Asia Pacific from a cross border travel standpoint Has been lagging and has historically not come back over the last few years since COVID hit, in the same way, say, as intra Europe has come back. In fact, I shared with you the metrics as to where we stand from an inbound cross border travel standpoint in Asia Pacific. So there's a lot of room to grow there. We think that markets in Asia Pacific such as Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, even Japan, they've started to open up and actually have opened up fairly well.

Speaker 3

The one thing which we have always taken comfort in is that the fundamentals of cross border travel and of cross border in total remain very sound. When people have the ability to travel, they have demonstrated their intent to travel. And I think we've got enough data points now over the last 18 months to suggest that When barriers towards travel are lifted, people get on the road again. And so if you think about that and you think about the context of what's going on in Asia And the potential there, we've got opportunity there. But even beyond Asia, there are several other corridors such as the U.

Speaker 3

S, UK and Canada, which still have not reached their historical growth levels. They're higher than their 2019 index levels from an inbound standpoint, but there's still more room to grow. So we've kind Built all of that in, in our thoughts for the rest of the year. I'd like to just add

Speaker 2

to that. I find travel such a fascinating topic and certainly very central Business. There's been a discussion around of pent up demand like this is going to be a bubble and then it's all going to go back to where it was during the last 2 years. Why would anybody that has now has the chance to see their family and their friends again stop doing that in a year from now? So I think that actually doesn't make any sense.

Speaker 2

So we believe exactly the point that Sachin just made, if there is a possibility people will continue to travel the way they have been before COVID. One other thing to add is one thing is the underlying trends that we have built in and our outlook on the data points that Sachin just talked about, but it's also the strength in our position visavis that travel trend. All the portfolios, we talked to you about American Airlines, about JetBlue, about Cathay specific, everything that we have won in the last 2 years is going to really come to bear to really make the most of this.

Operator

Your next question comes from Rayna Kumar from UBS. Please go ahead.

Speaker 5

Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. During the 2008, 2009 recession, Mastercard generated solid revenue and earnings growth. And I'm curious to know what you think has changed the most about BaaS Mastercard since then that could help You generate positive results through another potential economic downturn even if you're not seeing it right now. Thank you.

Speaker 2

Hi, Rainer. I think the last word, as you said, is instructive as we are not seeing it right now. Generally, resilient consumer spending for the time being, and we talked about the modest improvement in cross border and Same spending behaviors until the end of last year. You're taking us really a long time back in 2,008 and 2,009. I think the first thing I would say is It's a very different scenario.

Speaker 2

The scenario that we're looking at externally, I come to the company in a moment, externally is We are not having a crisis around unemployment. We're having high consumer spending levels. So we don't have an asset bubble that looks Anything similar than what we've seen at that time. So different starting point. I would say it's a somewhat more benign starting point than we had at that time.

Speaker 2

Now the company also looks entirely different than it looked In 2,008 and 2009, it's a much more diversified business. It's a highly diversified business. I think we were largely consumer creditdebit oriented at the time. We have a whole range of card based spendings from push payments into general payments for goods and services, opening up new verticals and so forth. And then there is our Progress into new flows.

Speaker 2

So that gives us resilience on underlying payments. It also our reach of Our business model, how many payment transactions we touch that allow us to build a set of services on it looks entirely different. Our switching ratios at that time were Much, much lower than they are today, which has led to a very successful services business, which we have seen in the last 2 years, actually quite resilient When you go into up through up and down cycles. And as we continue to build into the future to see whenever We might face a down cycle. Are we more resilient with other activities around digital identity and Open banking and so forth that go into a world of open banking and move even further before or So better earnings quality, higher diversification.

Speaker 2

And we've been tested. We've been tested over the last 2 years. I mean, there was a down cycle and we needed to demonstrate that agility and the speed in managing our Make the right investment decisions. So we feel we're well positioned to navigate what's going to whatever is going to come. Hopefully, it's positive.

Operator

Your next question comes from Darren Taylor from Wolfe Research. Please go ahead.

Speaker 6

Thanks guys. It looks like the investment you make in service to close continue to pay off. And I think to your point, it underscores that your customer base is still willing to really spend on some of those areas. Can you just talk about what you're seeing in And then Sachin, just one quick one on processing yields. It came in a lot better than our relative to transaction growth, processing revenue line up.

Speaker 6

You mentioned pricing and other variables. Can you just Talk about a bad sustainable spread. Thanks guys.

Speaker 3

Yes. Dan, happy to take the second question first. I must say you were breaking up on the first part of your question, so we might Just trying to state that again. But on your second part of the question, what you're seeing in transaction processing growth It's relative to the growth in switch transactions is exactly like I said, there are 3 things kind of going on there, right? There's the favorable mix piece, which I talked about, there's Higher FX related revenues and then there's some elements of pricing.

Speaker 3

Look, I mean, the reality is we're operating in an environment in which You've seen a few things happen. One is the mix has shifted towards more cross border and you know we make cross border Fees both in the cross border volume fees line as well as in switch transactions. So sometimes that's kind of an overlooked element, but that's an important Keep in mind that we do make cross border fees on the transaction processing line and as the shift has gone towards more cross border that's helped us. Number 2 is There's high levels of volatility in the foreign exchange markets. We deliver some very important services when we do Switching up transactions and when we do the settlement of those transactions in a highly volatile FX environment, it's actually worked in our favor.

Speaker 3

And on pricing, the baseline is the following, which is at the end of the day, we continue to deliver value to the ecosystem. And as we put value out The ecosystem, we price for that value. And what you're seeing there is exactly that come through, which is we are reflecting that in the nature of pricing. You'll see puts and takes in different quarters in terms of what we may or may not do in terms of pricing depending on what we believe is value we're delivering as well as what market's appetite to accept that is, and that's what you're seeing come through there.

Speaker 6

Okay. That's helpful.

Speaker 3

You really need to hear that now.

Speaker 2

Yes, that's much better. Yes, thanks.

Speaker 6

I was just trying to figure out the value added services, the new flows, all the areas that are driving other revenues obviously are continuing to Trend very well. And I mean, if you could just revisit, what do you think are the top 2 or 3 drivers there? And what kind of sustainability in different macro scenarios you'd expect for that, just it looks like the investments you made there are clearly paying off. I think we're just wondering on the cyclicality of it. Thanks again, guys.

Speaker 2

All right, good. So what we're seeing here is, first of all, on the backdrop, Let's just pick up on the structural changes again that we have seen over the last 2 years. Clearly driven by social distancing measures, a significant push into more digital engagements by consumers that were sitting at home. So all that. So it's a more digital world.

Speaker 2

So here, services that help make a more digital world safer and more easily understood, that's really the general thrust What's driving the growth and the interest from our customers across established customer sets as well as new ones. Earlier, I talked about Travelodge. People come to us and say, Hey, I want to use all of that data to get a better understanding of my business. So taking it 1 by 1, safety, security, Anything in the fraud space, in the authentication space, it's been a joy for us. You go further into cyber risk assessments, are small businesses safe?

Speaker 2

There's many small businesses that have Opened up in a more digital fashion now over the last 2 years. And you go all the way into digital identity because in a more digital world, people find they have more And nobody wants really wants that. So digital identity is now a solution that's really taking hold. So that's that whole space. And you saw us Actually, it doesn't stop at current types of payments.

Speaker 2

The last thing I should add is our acquisition of CipherTrace and how we're going into the crypto space, making that safer, As that is certainly something that captures consumers' interest. One space. The second piece is what do you do with all of that data, Retail and Commerce, Travelodge, I'll give you one example. Many other customers are trying to understand, how to make run their business better using the payments data that Thrown off and we help them with that. Our Dynamic Yield acquisition is one of them, where we help customers, Retail and commerce customers engage their customers their end customers in a more targeted fashion.

Speaker 2

I imagine a landing page that now has personalized offers. In our case, always with strong consent from consumers and a focus on data privacy. So those are the two headlines. We do various other And services from consulting into processing related activities and so forth, but that's center of And Darren, I'll just add.

Speaker 3

As it relates to how we see the other revenue line item and services in particular to what Meantra was talking about, look, we see really good demand from the customers and Good growth potential there. The reality is we are doing deeper penetration of those services with our existing customer base. We're expanding the set of services we've got Across our customer base. And on the 3rd element, we're actually taking those same services and moving across to the new network side of things as well. And Michael alluded to one part of that When he was talking about what we're doing at CipherTrace, but more broadly even in Open Banking, for example.

Speaker 3

So the potential is there and we do expect that given the suite of services we've got, There's good growth potential going forward.

Operator

Your next question comes from Lisa Ellis from MoffettNathanson. Please go ahead.

Speaker 7

All right. Good morning. Thanks, guys. Good stuff here. I wanted to ask a question about some of the news related recently To the CFPB, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, looking into standalone service providers, both In the P2P space, so meaning the fraud issues we've seen in Zelle and other kind of private P2P services.

Speaker 7

And then also on the BNPL side, looking at the standalone Providers there with the marketing and kind of risk management that they're doing. Can you just comment on how Mastercard is kind of positioned relative to the areas they're looking into. Is this an opportunity for Mastercard to perhaps play a larger role with Mastercard Send in P2P and with Mastercard installments in BNPL? Thank you.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Lisa. So let me start off on that. Where the consumer protection agency And here the U. S. And some other markets are going is really to ensure that there is the right kind of protections for consumers That goes all the way from responsible lending to safety, security and so forth.

Speaker 2

We follow that. But if I look just in house and see what we're doing,

Speaker 3

if I look

Speaker 2

at our data principles, what we have done around card installment programs to ensure that the participating lenders go through a vetting process and follow responsible lending Rules that we have set as part of our franchise, we feel well positioned. I feel we are a good industry custodian to Sure. These responsible practices are being held around. Now is that also an opportunity for us in all of this? Absolutely.

Speaker 2

We have learned to partner with P2P systems in many countries around the world with safety and security solutions, the services I actually just talked about. When we say, hey, you have a fraud issue, We get it. Here's a set of answers that we have for you to partner. And in other markets, we compete head on because we simply believe we have the better solution and And your players not necessarily always want to partner with us. So it's a bit of a mix, give and take, but it's an interesting and dynamic field that we are very focused on.

Operator

Your next question comes from Tien Tsin Huang from JPMorgan. Please go ahead.

Speaker 8

Hey, thank you so much. Thanks for going through all of this. I heard the CIBC win. I'm just curious how deal activity Is going are the known conversions that you have proceeding in a timely way? I don't know if there's been any change given Some of the macro uncertainty there.

Speaker 8

And then also Sachin, would you mind just rehashing the FX neutral OpEx Numbers again, are you changing your underlying investment strategy or inflation assumptions given what we've learned around the macro? Thank you.

Speaker 2

So, Jean, let me start off with deal activity. The momentum that we have seen over the last 2 years throughout the pandemic where we union with our customers and say, hey, what do you need? These are tough times. I think we set ourselves up as a trusted partner and helped to shape that deal pipeline that we currently see, which is very strong. Deal pipeline is strong across all regions.

Speaker 2

We gave you a few examples today from we haven't talked much about So this is these are strong wins. This is excellent. Some of the very significant wins we talked about over a year ago in Europe, when you think about NetWest, Deutsche Bank, the multiregional deal that we have with Santander, They are progressing according to plan. The conversions are going on. I mentioned very specifically back to United States, the GAAP conversion is actually done On those 10,000,000 cards, so overall, we talked to you at the Investor Day in November last Yes, that we see share growth across all of our carded products, and we continue to feel very good about that.

Speaker 2

So momentum is competitive out there, of course. But I think the mix of what we have in various payment solutions as well as services Sets us apart. We've also relooked at how we deploy our sales resources across the company With all the acquisitions that we have, so that we can do the best possible work for our customers. So overall, strong momentum that I think will continue.

Speaker 3

Yes, Tien Tsin, on your question as it relates to the outlook for the full year 2022 on OpEx. So On a currency neutral basis, excluding acquisitions, we are Guiding along the following lines, which is on OpEx that we expect to come in on a full year basis at the low end of the low double digits range. And just to remind you, while we're talking about OpEx, on the revenue side also, we have changed our full year guide and our Revenue, again, on a non GAAP growth basis, currency neutral, excluding acquisitions, is now at The low 20s rate, which is higher than what we had shared with you previously.

Operator

Your next question comes from David Togut from Evercore. Please go ahead.

Speaker 9

Thank you. Good morning. Among your largest geographic regions, Europe continues to generate the greatest payment volume outperformance versus our model. You underscored a number of geopolitical and economic risks for Europe going forward, especially as we head into the winter. Can you talk through Mastercard's growth algorithm, what that might look like in a significant economic slowdown in Europe?

Speaker 9

Historically, you've been a big share gainer there, particularly against the national payment networks. You've got the secular shift working in your favor. But If you could just kind of talk through your thought process, that would be much appreciated. Right.

Speaker 2

Let me start and then Sachin can chime in. So David, the matter of fact is Europe is not homogeneous. That's the first thing I would say. When you look at where we are on the arc of the secular shift, it's very different. So there's lots of opportunity Across the board, from further digitization, the opportunity to go beyond P2M And sets of floors is wide open in Europe.

Speaker 2

The push of the European authorities to digitize beyond just in store payments And online payments is significantly there. We're well positioned with our tools in Europe, which It's pushing on open banking, which is pushing on open on account to account, which is pushing bill pay solutions. We have all that in a hop. So we feel that there is significant opportunity. And as I said before, there is uncertainty on the European macroeconomic Front.

Speaker 2

But on the other hand, macroeconomic, GDP, overall economy and our basket are 2 different things, and we'll have to kind of see how that will play out. Can't really predict that. I'm from there, so I have a sense, but I'm not in the business of predictions.

Operator

Your next question comes from Ramsey El Assal from Barclays. Please go ahead.

Speaker 10

Hi, thanks so much for taking my question. I had wanted to ask about some of the longer term drivers of rebates and incentives. It seems like today or not seems like today, rebates and incentives as a Percentage of gross revenues are several 100 basis points higher than they were in 2019. I guess the question is, is the mix and the mix related drivers of that increase are very clear. But As we move forward over the next couple of years and your mix normalizes, should we see downward pressure on rebates and incentives As a percentage of gross revenues or is this something where this new baseline is sort of here to stay and if that's the case maybe give us some reasons why?

Speaker 3

Sure. So, Suramji, I'll take that one. So look, I mean, I think you're well aware about the fact that rebates and centers are influenced by a number Some of which you alluded to, which is what's going on from a volume growth rate, what's going on from a mix standpoint, how the pipeline of new and renewed deals are looking and you take all of that into consideration. But The reality is, if you just think about where we are from a mix standpoint, particularly on cross border between where we were pre pandemic and where we are today, We've still not gone back to the historical mix levels from a cross border to domestic volume standpoint. So as that reverts back To the mean, and when I say the mean, it means closer to what the pre pandemic levels were.

Speaker 3

You would expect to see some benefit of that come through in rebates and incentives Versus gross as a percentage of gross, you would see that come through. But the reality is there are other countervailing factors which are also taking place, right, which is a function of What the pipeline of deals looks like, what the timing around that is, but the basic premise is correct, which is as more cross border happens, you're going to see a benefit come through in

Operator

Your next question comes from Brian Ming From Deutsche Bank, please go ahead.

Speaker 6

Hi, guys. Good morning. I just wanted to ask A clarification Sachin on the OpEx, the non GAAP growth currency neutral ex acquisitions. That went up from high single digits originally. I think it was last quarter that you guided to that for the year to low End of low double digits.

Speaker 6

So I guess, why the increase in OpEx? And is it just taking the opportunity to invest more due to the strength of the top line? Any color maybe on where some of those investments might be going with the additional expense? Thanks.

Speaker 3

Sure, Ryan. So a couple of things which are you're right. We had previously guided to high single digits and now are guiding to low end of low double digits on this non GAAP metric on OpEx. Couple of things going on. One is we have taken foreign exchange related losses on the re measurement of our Assets and liabilities during the 1st two quarters, order of magnitude about $70,000,000 and you'll see all of this in our In our reports, which we kind of publicly put out there.

Speaker 3

So that's certainly impacting it. And then a couple of other things, which to me are more critical, which is we continue to invest And the long term growth of our business, which includes investing in our people. In a hot talent market, we want to make sure we've got the best people. We want to be there in terms of having those best people help us execute on what we've laid out as our strategic priorities, which is what we're doing right here. We've always kind of followed the philosophy of let's keep an eye on the top line and then kind of pulse as to what we want to do from an expense and investment standpoint.

Operator

Your next question comes from Dave Koning from Baird. Please go ahead.

Speaker 11

Yes. Hey, guys. Thanks so much. And I guess my question is on cross border yields. One thing that was interesting this quarter intra Europe cross border grew faster Then non intra year for the first time in a long time and yield was up regardless.

Speaker 11

So it seems like the last few quarters mix Helped a lot. But now there seems like another driver on top. I guess, is that right? Maybe what's that other driver? And Should we get faster growth in non intra Europe kind of in coming quarters?

Speaker 3

Sure, David. So you're right in terms of what the mix shift between intra and intra was This quarter versus last quarter, I think there are a few things to keep in mind that the mix shift between inter and intra, but there's also within the world of Inter, what are the corridors which are coming back versus the corridors which have not come back, right? And as you've started to see more of the higher yielding corridors come back, That's actually helping us and providing us the tailwind we're talking about right here. So for example, you've got markets like inbound into the U. S.

Speaker 3

As that starts to come back, you start to see the benefit of that come through. Markets like Asia, inbound into Asia, you start to see the benefit of that come through. Yes, great. Thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from Jason Cab Furburg from Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Speaker 12

Good morning, guys. Wanted to get your perspective on just the relative health of The lower income consumer versus higher income. And then if you can just make some remarks about how we should think about rebates and incentives for Q3 and Q4? Thank you.

Speaker 3

Sure, Jason. So on your first question, here's what we're seeing actually. Overall, the consumer and consumer spending patterns are very And again, you've got to parse this data out between what we see in the U. S. Versus what we see in the rest of the world, right?

Speaker 3

And different people have different definitions on what is lower income versus What is the affluent, but let's just start kind of that as the frame. In the U. S, what you are seeing is good strength across both, but a declining trend in terms of The growth rates on the lower income side of things, affluent spend continues to be very healthy and carries on in a very nice way. Outside of the U. S, we're not seeing much in the nature of a shift between how the affluent category is spending versus what the lower income category is spending.

Speaker 3

So the benefits of what we've got in Mastercard by being a diversified business and being diversified from a geographical standpoint It's actually helping us very nicely because independent of what happens in one market versus the other, the value of what we got across the globe comes through in terms of spend levels here. And then your second question was around rebids and incentives. Look, I just talked about things which influence rebids and incentives, so I won't Kind of belabor that point. What I'll share with you is the following that we expect that rebates and incentives as a percentage of growth will be roughly similar Q3 to what we saw in Q2.

Speaker 1

Thank you. Sure.

Operator

Your next question comes from Bob Napoli from William Blair.

Speaker 13

I just wanted to follow-up on a lot of your comments on the Open Banking, Digital ID and your investments there. Can you maybe give some color on what you feel like the revenue TAM is for those businesses? And what type of where you see the most opportunity, what the kind of the growth trajectory is of those businesses?

Speaker 2

Right. So Open Banking, let me start off more generally speaking. So clearly, a global trend, One that's to stay. It's happening in Brazil. It's happening in Australia.

Speaker 2

Certainly, it was there in the United States and Europe. The way we First of all, have a relevant position in connectivity and then building out a bunch of use cases. And the use cases, that's what gets you to the heart of your question Well, you see very different types of kind of revenue models, Value exchange model. So first of all, on connectivity itself, you have per API call kind of logic. If you go into Financial Management Solutions, it depends on who's our customer here.

Speaker 2

Let's say it's a FinTech. That could again be by API, but you could start to see as you go into lending, Mortgage verification, asset verification kind of use cases, those are kind of that's the broad range of currently what we're seeing. No established model at this point in time. I mean, we're investing heavily high off in the city because we feel there is a tremendous opportunity. This is it's going to help to pull so many new customers into the consumers into the ecosystem on the financial inclusion side, on the SME side and so forth.

Speaker 2

So Hard to answer very specifically right now where we are, but those are those kind of different kind of models and it's going to be multi geography and it's going to be here around And I'll

Speaker 3

just add to that. A couple of thoughts. One, I think defining any sort of TAM in Open Banking at this point in time will just be an incorrect We'll be looking for precision where it doesn't exist because use cases are still to develop. So I think what we see is tremendous potential With what open banking does by providing us access to an alternative network, it's a data network, which comes with its own sets of use cases. The second point I'll bring out is Regardless of whether it's open banking or digital ID or all of our services, we think about that in the context of the revenues they generate for Mastercard, the company, but it's really important to remember that they all of this is one big circular wheel.

Speaker 3

Our Open Banking assets power our payments, Our services power our payments. So there is the collateral advantage which comes through by virtue and being in all of these spaces which trickles down to All parts of our business.

Speaker 2

Thank you.

Speaker 3

All right.

Speaker 2

Thank you so much for that last question. Exciting space. We're going to close the call now. We're at the top of the hour. Appreciate your time this morning.

Speaker 2

Do want to thank our 24,000 colleagues around the world, I want to thank all of you who've joined us today for your continued support from Mastercard. Talk to you in a quarter. Thank you so much.

Operator

This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.

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Earnings Conference Call
Mastercard Q2 2022
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