Fortinet Q3 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

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Operator

Welcome to the Fortinets Third Quarter Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions]

And without further ado, I will now hand the conference over to your first speaker, Peter Salkowski, Vice President of Investor Relations at Fortinet. Peter, please go ahead.

Peter Salkowski
Vice President, Investor Relations at Fortinet

Thank you, Eric. Good afternoon, everyone. This is Pete Salkowski, Vice President of Investor Relations at Fortinet. I am pleased to welcome everyone to our call to discuss Fortinets discounts for the third quarter of 2022. Speakers on todays call are Ken Xie, Fortinets Founder, Chairman and CEO; and Keith Jensen, our Chief Financial Officer. Its a live call that will be available for replay via webcast or Investor Relations website. Ken will begin todays call by providing a high-level perspective on our business, then follow with a review of our financial and operating results for the third quarter, providing guidance for the fourth quarter and updating the full year. Well then open the call for questions. [Operator Instructions] Before we begin, Id like to remind everyone that on todays call, we will be making forward-looking statements, and these forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties, which could cause actual results to differ materially from those projected. Please refer to our SEC filings, in particular, the risk factors in our most recent 10-K and Form 10-Q for more information.

All forward-looking statements reflect our opinions only as of the date of this presentation, and we undertake no obligation and specifically disclaim any obligation to update forward-looking statements. Also, all references to financial metrics that we make on todays call are non-GAAP, unless stated otherwise. Our GAAP results and our GAAP to non-GAAP reconciliations are located in our earnings press release and in the presentation that accompany todays remarks, both of which are posted on the Investor Relations website. Ken and Keiths prepared remarks today -- for todays earnings call will be posted on the quarterly earnings section of the Investor Relations website immediately following todays call. Lastly, all references to growth are on a year-over-year basis unless noted otherwise.

I will now turn the call over to Ken.

Ken Xie
Founder, Chairman of The Board, And Chief Executive Officer at Fortinet

Thanks, Peter, and thank you to everyone for joining todays call to review our outstanding third quarter 2022 results. Revenue for the quarter grew 33%, significantly outpacing the inventory growth rate. We believe that customer recognition of the exceptional value proposition we provided by a high performance for the ASIC technology and integrate FortiOS. operation system is driving our ability to take cybersecurity market share. Product revenue growth was very strong at 39%, extending our position as a product revenue leader in the cybersecurity industry. Our product revenue performance reflects the strong demand we have built over the past 18 months across our security solutions along with the successful execution of our internal team in managing the supply chain challenges. three growth drivers, the heightened threat environment, the convergence of security and networking and the consolidation of security functionality and vendors together with the opportunity to upsell additional security services to a significant installed base are expected to drive future growth.

First, the threat landscape, including ransomware, continue to expand an evolving targeting company of our size, location and industries. To counter the threat landscape, we are implementing a unique universal ZTNA across a wide range of customers, driving triple-digit growth for this product and delivering a comprehensive approach to zero trust that is consistent for any user anywhere on any device and supporting todays hybrid workforce. Second, for years, Fortinet has lead strategy around convergence of networking and security. We estimate the total addressable market for networking and security will increase from $54 billion today to $73 billion in 2026. Convergence accelerate digital transformation and substantially reduce our operation costs and combining networking modernization with dynamic security not [Indecipherable] spend every part of the network, especially now that many companies are merging SOC and IOC operation together.

Fortinet is leading the convergence trend with a wide range of technologies, including network firewall segmentation, Secure SD-WAN, OT security and 5G in a single operation system, which can be deployed as hardware, software, cloud and as a service. Fortinet continues to gain Secure SD-WAN market share as our integrated Secure SD-WAN solution delivers better security, performance and efficiency over more traditional offerings. In the quarter, SD-WAN and OT bookings grow over 45% and 75%, respectively, and together accounted for over 25% of total bookings. We believe we can achieve number one market share in SD-WAN in the next couple of years. Today, we announced a FortiGate 1000F, our latest innovation in converging networking and security, powered by our new NP7 SPU, the 1000F delivered five to 10 times higher performance across six major network security functions by consuming 80% less power versus competitive solutions. The lower power consumption was a contributing factor in our top 2% ranking in S&P Global Corporate Sustainability Assessment.

Our third growth driver is the consolidation of our vendors and product functionality with FortiASIC huge computing power advantage, FortiOS can integrate most security function than our competitors, together with over 30 key products ranging from endpoint to network to the cloud security, Fortinet provides our customer with easier operation while lower the management cost and the total cost of ownership. Additionally, we are very focused on upselling value-added security services to a significant customer base. According to IDCs second quarter unit share data, Fortinet hold the number one market share position for unit shipped and 43%, up 210 basis points. We expect to reach 50% market share in the next few years. This leadership position and the substantial installed base creates attractive economy of scale and an opportunity to upsell additional security services. Before turning the call over to Keith, I would like to thank our employees, customers, partners and suppliers worldwide for their continued support and hard work.

Keith Jensen
Chief Financial Officer at Fortinet

All right. Thank you, Ken, and good afternoon, everyone. Lets start with an overview of our strong third quarter performance. Revenue of $1.15 billion was another quarterly record for Fortinet, increasing 33% year-over-year and 12% sequentially, our highest third quarter sequential growth rate in 11 years. We continue to deliver better-than-industry average top line growth and generate strong profitability. Our operating margin exceeded guidance is over 28%, driving the adjusted free cash flow margin to 40%. Our history as a public company has revolved around the Rule of 40, measured as the combined total of revenue growth and operating margin. Impressively, the Q3 total came in at over 60. We continue to see success in our strategy for expanding further into the large enterprise segment. The number of deals over $1 million increased over 80% to 153 deals. The total billings value of deals over $1 million more than doubled driven by a record number of deals over $5 million. And G2000 bookings increased over 40%.

Our strong third quarter results reflect solid customer demand across both our core and enhanced platform technologies and the exceptional performance of the team in a challenging supply chain environment. We believe the investments weve made in building our platform and our go-to-market engine enables our customers digital transformation journey. Our platform strategy allows customers to converge networking functionality with security capabilities while consolidating cybersecurity products, providing security across their entire digital infrastructure while lowering their operating costs. Recently, The Forrester Wave: Enterprise Firewalls report acknowledged the success of our investment strategy, placing Fortinet as a leader for the first time in its history. According to Forrester, "Fortinet excels the performance for value and offers a wide array of adjacent services. Long known for its bang-for-the-buck approach to network security, Fortinet has built a flexible and capable platform with its flagship product, the FortiGate Firewall." Taking a closer look at the income statement.

Product revenue grew 39%. Product revenue growth for our core and enhanced technology platform products increased 29% and 51%, respectively. The product revenue growth rate accelerated over four points sequentially, especially impressive given it is our toughest year-over-year comparison in over 10 years. Service revenue was up 28%, accelerating three points sequentially driven by strong product revenue growth and seven consecutive quarters of increasing short-term deferred revenue growth rates. Support and related service revenue was up 28%, accelerating over two points sequentially to $311 million. While security subscription service revenue was up 29%, accelerating four points sequentially to $370 million. Total revenue in the Americas increased 34%. EMEA revenue increased 37% and APAC posted revenue growth of 23%. Total gross margin at 76.2% exceeded the high end of our guidance range. Product gross margin of 61% was up 30 basis points year-over-year. Services gross margin of 86.6% was flat year-over-year, but up 70 basis points sequentially.

Operating margin of 28.3% was up 250 basis points, benefiting from FX and the operating margin leverage that comes with higher revenues. Shifting to billings. Billings of $1.4 billion were up 33%, representing the sixth consecutive quarter of billings growth in excess of 30%. Core platform billings were up 27% and accounted for 67% of total billings. As shown on slide six, we entry-level FortiGates posted very strong growth with the mix shifting 16 points in their favor, driven by demand and as we expected, improved supply. Enhanced platform technology billings were up 45% and accounted for 33% of total billings, a positive mix shift of three points. Average contract term was flat year-over-year at 29 months. Looking at the statement of cash flow summarized on slide seven and eight. Free cash flow was $395 million.

Adjusted free cash flow, which excludes real estate investments, was $464 million, representing a 40% adjusted free cash flow margin. DSOs were down five days sequentially while increasing 12 days year-over-year to 75 days. Cash taxes were $69 million. Capital expenditures were $88 million, including $69 million for real estate investments. We repurchased 10.2 million shares of our common stock for a cost of $500 million, bringing the year-to-date totals to 36 million shares at a total cost of $2 billion. The remaining repurchase authorization totals $530 million. Regarding backlog, the backlog at the end of the third quarter was up slightly from the end of the prior quarter, with FortiGate Firewalls accounting for just 1/3 of total backlog. We expect fourth quarter ending backlog to be relatively consistent with the third quarter backlog as we are seeing early signs of a transition back to more normalized customer buying behaviors. Moving to guidance. Moving to guidance.

The current environment favors a Fortinet style platform that offers integrated solutions and strong security capabilities and an attractive cost of ownership. To enhance our ability to capture our share of the large market opportunity, we plan to continue to invest in innovation across our integrated platform offerings. Now Id like to review our outlook for the fourth quarter, summarized on slide nine, which is subject to disclaimers regarding forward-looking information that Peter provided at the beginning of the call. And to start, as part of the Q4 guidance setting process, we considered several factors, including the greater macro uncertainty today and with it, the increased risk of forecasting the timing of certain larger transactions. The transition to more normalized customers buying behaviors, which means there is less of an emphasis on ordering to get a place online. And for comparison, in the fourth quarter of 2021, when supply was tighter, backlog increased over $120 million and contributed to 49% bookings growth.

And lastly, elevated year early year top line comparisons that include certain onetime items adding a couple of points to service revenue growth and fully cycling the Alaxala acquisition. In response, we have slightly widened our top line guidance ranges. For the fourth quarter, we expect to again reach the Rule of 60. And with that, the key metrics include billings in the range of $1.665 billion to $1.720 billion, which at the midpoint represents growth of 30%. Revenue in the range of $1.275 billion to $1.315 billion, which represents growth of 34%. Non-GAAP gross margin of 75% to 76%, non-GAAP operating margin of 30% to 31%, non-GAAP earnings per share of $0.38 to $0.40, which assumes a share count of between 795 million and 805 million. We expect capital expenditures of $75 million to $85 million. We expect a non-GAAP tax rate of 17%. And for the full year, we expect billings and revenue growth to exceed 30% for the second consecutive year. Billings in the range of $5.540 billion to $5.595 billion, which at the midpoint represents 33%, revenue in the range of $4.410 billion to $4.450 billion, which represents growth of 33%.

Perhaps for context, we should note at the midpoint, these full year billings and revenue growth rates are three points higher than the initial growth rates we provided in early February, despite the start of the war in Ukraine in late February, significant increases in interest rates and increasing uncertainty in the macro environment, and importantly, full year backlog is expected to be above the February estimate of $350 million. Total service revenue in the range of $2.645 billion to $2.655 billion, which represents growth of 27% and implies full year product revenue growth of 42%. The non-GAAP gross margin of 75% to 76%; non-GAAP operating margin of 26% to 27% at the midpoint a year-over-year increase of 30 basis points. And again, for context, at the midpoint, gross and operating margin expectations were 50 and 100 basis points above the February guide, respectively. Non-GAAP earnings per share of $1.13 to $1.15, which assumes a share count of between 800 million and 810 million. We expect full year capital expenditures of $325 million to $335 million. We expect our non-GAAP tax rate to be 17%.

We expect cash taxes to be $265 million. Before wrapping up, Id like to offer some preliminary thoughts on 2023 and our midterm targets on the heels of a very strong set of growth in 2021 -- in 2022. We continue to successfully balance growth and profitability, while investing in longer-term innovation and go-to-market initiatives to fuel future growth. The strength of our business model includes its diversification, margins that provide capacity for future investment and a rich mix of higher-margin recurring service revenues. As we saw in the highs of pandemic, the diversification helps mitigate the risk of economic slowdowns. Specifically, in 2020, we delivered operating margins of nearly 27%, adjusted free cash flow margin of over 38% and top line growth of 20%. And during the past 12 months, we have really exceeded our operating margin targets, while increasing our engineering headcount by about 20% and significantly increasing our future sales capacity by over 25%, including a greater than 50% increase in new nontenured salespeople.

While we will provide more detailed 2023 guidance when we report our fourth quarter results, its worth leaning that service revenue accounts for 60% of total revenue, with gross margins hovering above 85%. We see continued service revenue growth driven by two years of very strong product revenue growth and seven consecutive quarters accelerating short-term deferred revenue growth. With a strong business model and the history of being able to execute, we are confident that our momentum will continue and point to our key growth drivers, including strategic investments, the heightened threat environment, the convergence of networking and security, the cybersecurity consolidation. Cyber securities are not immune to economic slowdowns -- is expected to remain a relatively safe harbor.

As such, we remain on track to achieve all of our medium-term financial targets from our May 2022 Analyst Day, including $10 billion in billings and $8 billion in revenue in 2025, each representing a 22% three year CAGR from the midpoint of our 2022 guidance. The targets also included an average non-GAAP operating margin of at least 25% for the four years from 2022 to 2025. And the 2025 adjusted free cash flow margin in the -- in the mid- to high 30% range. Illustrating our long focus for balancing growth and profitability, our targets remain committed to low-40 or better.

Ill now hand the call back over to Peter to begin the Q&A.

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Peter Salkowski
Vice President, Investor Relations at Fortinet

Thank you, Keith. [Operator Instructions] Eric, we are ready for Q&A.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] And our first question comes from Fatima Boolani at Citi. Fatima, your line is open.

Fatima Boolani
Analyst at Smith Barney Citigroup

Thank you. Good afternoon. I appreciate you for taking my question. Keith, this ones for you, just with respect to the 4Q guidance and the outlook. I appreciate you kind of breaking down the three principal factors that went into that. But I wanted to dig in specifically on the comment you made about normalized buying behavior as it relates to the backlog build. So I think what I inferred from your comments is that while the backlog is going to be sequentially up and sort of higher than what you initially pointed out to be maybe $350 million of ending backlog. Thats certainly below the $500 million that you were previously telegraphing. So I just wanted to better understand sort of the modulation downward on the backlog there and how the sort of normalized buying behavior contributes to that? And then Ill ask my follow-up.

Keith Jensen
Chief Financial Officer at Fortinet

Okay. I think when we talk about normalized buying behavior, I think that we certainly saw some enterprise customers in the U.S. doing the supply chain challenges. They were placing orders to get in line -- to hold their place in line for when the inventory is available. And I think, say, a year ago or so that, that was an appropriate behavior when there was a lot of uncertainty around the supply chain and maybe theyre planning for what were going to do in 2022. I think that somewhat in general now, and maybe Ken will talk more about this, I think people are getting the sense that the -- certainly, we are -- that the supply chain is a little bit easier to forecast and somewhat easier to manage. I dont mean by any stretch easy, but I do think its easier. And with that, I think youre starting to see the market drift back towards the emphasis start to what I would call more traditional buying, which is when they need it, theyre placing the order.

Ken Xie
Founder, Chairman of The Board, And Chief Executive Officer at Fortinet

Yes. And also look at the composition of our backlog, its only 1/3 or less related to our network security platform, FortiGate, more than half related to like a switch in AP, which is a networking equipment which is kind of an industry problem in the networking side because device tends to be more changeable, more standard driven. So a lot of customers, sometimes double, triple order try to get ahead of whatever the supply chain issue and also some of them can easily cancel once they got the product. So thats why we feel probably keeping track in the backlog may not be the best way to forecast the business, and we should be more focused on security, security related, especially driving the future service based on huge FortiGate installation base.

Fatima Boolani
Analyst at Smith Barney Citigroup

Thank you and Keith, just a clarification on the services revenue trajectory and more broadly thinking about next year. So we saw the reacceleration this quarter in services revenue. So wondering if you can give us a quick update on how the delayed registrations from earlier in the year and transactions from earlier in the year are trending and how we should think about that filtering and flowing into our models for next year? Thank you.

Keith Jensen
Chief Financial Officer at Fortinet

Yes. I think weve been messaging throughout the quarter at various conferences that -- and even in the prior quarter that we had a clear expectation that service revenue growth has accelerated. So were very pleased to see that. I think theres a number of things that are providing a tailwind into that. Customer registering units is part of that. I think also the price increase is making its way first into orders and deferred revenue and now into the income statement. Keeping in mind that we have contracts of sometimes or as long as five years, that will give you a sense of how long the tailwind may relate to price increases as we will continue to cycle through renewals at old prices and replace them with new contracts. So I think we feel good about the direction of the service revenue and the margins that it provides, together with the fact that its 60% of our business.

Operator

Okay. Thank you. Our next question comes from Saket Kalia at Barclays. Sakit, your line is open. Please go ahead.

Saket Kalia
Analyst at Barclays

Okay. Great. Thanks very much for taking my question here. Keith, maybe just to start with you. Id love to just zero in on product revenue growth a little bit for this year. Can you just maybe talk about some of the growth drivers for product revenue this year that arent expected to repeat next year. Again, very helpful detail kind of thinking about total billings for kind of following years. But for product, what are some of the one-off things that we should be keeping in mind like in Alaxala, like price adjustments, just to sort of think about what normalized growth in product might look as we start to think about falling -- the falling years.

Keith Jensen
Chief Financial Officer at Fortinet

Yes. I think Alaxala is probably the easiest one to talk about in terms of providing numbers. Weve talked about the fact that their revenue stream was probably something in the order of $130 million to $140 million when we acquired them. And reminded people that they are a March 31 year-end, so their fourth quarter is a little bit off cycle. I think that its growth single digits. So I think that probably gives people a good level of expectation. Reminder there that our interest in Alaxala is a lot to run at the IP and some opportunities that we have there to do things more longer term, if you will. In terms of other unique things about product during the quarter, I mean, I think that as the backlog comes into revenue -- as we go through the end of 2022 here and certainly into 2023, its going to provide, again, a fairly significant tailwind to what the product revenue growth will be in 2023, assuming we get that drawdown in backlog that we may see.

Ken Xie
Founder, Chairman of The Board, And Chief Executive Officer at Fortinet

Yes. Also, we believe the growth driver, especially the converged network and security. We dont think thats a slowdown. Well be keeping driving the product revenue growth in the next five to 10 years. You can see the Secure SD-WAN and OT both has a pretty healthy growth. And at the same time, we will continue to grow in the next five to 10 years in a huge market potential.

Saket Kalia
Analyst at Barclays

Got it. Got it. Maybe for my follow-up, really for both of you, Ill make a jump ball here. I think in Q3, we had operating margins of about 28%. I think the guide for Q4 is for margins a little bit higher. When I think that long-term guide out to 25 -- of at least 25%, it feels like youre doing a lot better than that here in the near term. Maybe the question is, how do you sort of think about that balance, right, in terms of growth, maybe moderating or normalizing as we mentioned, versus sort of that long-term margin?

Ken Xie
Founder, Chairman of The Board, And Chief Executive Officer at Fortinet

I think thats where -- if you look at the 13-year history, we as a public company, we always balance the growth and with the margin. So thats where we feel the 25% above is a healthy margin and then we can also give the money to invest in that growth and become a leader in the space. Thats where were continuing to balance, but if the growth slowed down definitely will be more helping in the margin. So thats why we keeping saying the Rule of 40, probably in the last few quarters, we kind of even reached the Rule of 60 now. So thats where -- also when the growth slowed down and sometimes the service revenue has a higher margin, which can also help in the margin, but we do expect the growth will continue in the next few years with the three growth drivers I mentioned and plus additional service revenue to our big installation base, a lot of them are not quite able the security service revenue yet.

Keith Jensen
Chief Financial Officer at Fortinet

Yes. I would probably -- certainly agree with Ken and I will put just a little more detail on it. Keeping in mind that our -- we sell in U.S. dollars -- so theres really not a direct FX impact there. On the revenue line, obviously, you can get into certain countries where the pressure on discounting, if you will, because of exchange rates can be a little more intense. But on the OpEx, because 30% of our business is the U.S. and the rest is international. We do get a tailwind from OpEx from the strength of the U.S. dollar. And I think youre seeing that in Q3 and youre seeing that in Q4.

And probably why its important is that weve talked for a number of years now around and made reference to 25% operating margin. If you go back four years ago, five years ago, it was probably a target to get to 25% operating margin. And since then, weve talked about averaging 25%, so I think floor of 25%. It has certainly served us well as a way to help other people understand about how we invest in the business, and as Ken makes reference to it. as we have funds available over that 25% operating margin, it creates opportunities for some, not necessarily all that youre seeing currently of those margin dollars to be reinvested back in innovation and back into our go-to-market strategy.

Saket Kalia
Analyst at Barclays

Got it. Very helpful. Thanks.

Operator

Okay. Were just lining up the next question. And the next question comes from Hamza Fodderwala at Morgan Stanley. Hamza, your line is open. Please go ahead.

Hamza Fodderwala
Analyst at Morgan Stanley

Hi, good evening guys. Thank you for taking my question. Keith, on the backlog, I appreciate, look, sometimes you have too many metrics that creates too many noise. And on the supply chain front, it seems like its getting a bit clearer. But could you give us any more granularity on how that backlog and that booking trajectory looked relative to your guidance, which I think when you guided to it, you were saying about 36% growth at the midpoint for bookings. So just curios how that shook out in Q3.

Keith Jensen
Chief Financial Officer at Fortinet

Yes. I think Ill come back to kind of Kens commentary around backlog, which is really what kind of drives the conversation about bookings. I think a year ago, when we introduced the backlog metric, there was a lot of uncertainty around what the supply chain crisis was going to look like and how it might impact our business and the purpose of providing that -- the backlog disclosure and the booking disclosure then was to kind of round out and help investors understand more about our business model as we go forward. And as we heard in the question earlier -- from one of the questions, at the beginning of the year, what kind of swag -- that kind of swag backlog growth of $350 million in the first quarter and then it came back and said, in the second quarter, we its going to get closer to $500 million for the full year.

And now I think were looking at a number thats going to be less than that, something in the floors probably seems reasonable from where were at. And I think with net-net, the message -- theres two messages. So one is I think were becoming much more comfortable with our ability to execute in this environment and maybe some easing in the environment itself. And then secondly, I think that it was always our intention. I think we messaged this that these would be short-term metrics that we provide. And I think they have served us and our investors well for an extended period of time, but its probably time now that we feel that weve gotten a better control on it to bring us more -- to bring us back online, if you will, with what our industry competitors are disclosing and not disclosing.

Hamza Fodderwala
Analyst at Morgan Stanley

Makes total sense. Just to follow up really quickly. I mean, is it fair to say that your bookings growth is still higher than your billings growth. Obviously, your backlog grew. So youre still expecting underlying bookings to be higher than 30% this year.

Keith Jensen
Chief Financial Officer at Fortinet

Yes. Were not going down to the detail of talking specifically about bookings, [Indecipherable] I just mentioned, going forward, our backlog more than what weve given to this point.

Hamza Fodderwala
Analyst at Morgan Stanley

Okay, thank you.

Operator

Okay. Our next question comes from Rob Owens at Piper Sandler. Rob, your line is open. Please go ahead.

Rob Owens
Analyst at Piper Sandler Companies

Great. Good evening. Thanks for taking the question. Just one from me. Curious with the supply chain getting a little bit easier, how youre thinking of margin, both kind of in the short term as well as the medium term. Thanks.

Ken Xie
Founder, Chairman of The Board, And Chief Executive Officer at Fortinet

I think the component and also the cost continue to go up. So thats where -- and also, we still have a pretty tight inventory to make most shipments shipping by air instead of by ocean. So thats where -- so well keep it adjusted by all these costs and probably some of the [Indecipherable] ourselves, some of them we may do some price increase, but we also feel, even some price increase, we continue to have a price advantage compared to competitive industry average with our own products. So thats where the margin we feel probably will be more stabilized. And thats probably -- the overall supply probably keep improving.

Keith Jensen
Chief Financial Officer at Fortinet

Yes. Again, spot on with that. I -- probably a couple -- a little more granularity. I think if you maybe look at it between product gross margin and services gross margin, the product win is the one thats probably more volatile related to what were seeing. Weve certainly heard commentary that maybe things are easing a little bit with the chip manufacturers, but I would say that theres no indication of any sort of cost reduction or savings that are coming from either chip manufacturers or the component suppliers. So well see how that plays out. Our strategy has been, and Ken alluded to this, is that we came into this economical cycle a year ago, believing that we had a price performance advantage and that we could raise prices and our target was really to pass along most but not all the price increases, call it plus or minus 1% margin. Its kind of our target every quarter. It doesnt fall that way every quarter because of various variables.

And I would imagine that to the extent that prices can remain to be elevated as we move into 2020, thats kind of the starting point for our pricing strategy into 2023 as well. Again, because we have not seen signs that weve lost the pricing performance advantage. In fact, we continue to win that way. Service is a little bit different. I mean, the largest cost components in service is labor. And if you look back, were a company that has its annual merit increases in the first or second month of the year, so you kind of get a rather immediate jolt on the COGS line from those -- from compensation increases, which is certainly appropriate -- and then you have to grow the service revenue into it. And I think thats part of the conversation about why you saw the reference to sequential margin increases.

On the revenue side, it gets fairly complex. -- well, maybe not complex. But thinking through how price increases that started about a year ago and kind of at a quarterly pace, if you will, how those price increases will make their way first onto the balance sheet and deferred revenue and to what extent each item is going to reflect all those price increases and then how it will come off the balance sheet in future periods. So you will get tailwind from the price increases. And I would expect that, that particular tailwind should continue to -- for an extended period of time.

Rob Owens
Analyst at Piper Sandler Companies

Ken and Keith, thank you.

Operator

Okay. Our next question, just connecting the line now, comes from Shaul Eyal at Cowen. Shaul, your line is open. Please go a

Shaul Eyal
Analyst at Cowen

Thank you so much. Good afternoon, guys. Keith, question on APAC, softest performance in, I think, like two years, what was driving that? And I have a follow-up.

Keith Jensen
Chief Financial Officer at Fortinet

Yes. I think weve made a leadership change there around the end of June, beginning of July, we had a retirement. And I think thats just kind of the transition of leaders, if you will, if one was exiting into retirement and we brought somebody on. But I think we feel very, very good about in terms of their abilities. And I think the other part of it is youre starting to see the lapping effect of Alaxala because all of Alaxala is in APAC. And so youre going to see that now as we roll up on basically the full quarter comparisons of that impact.

Shaul Eyal
Analyst at Cowen

Understood. Understood. And on FortiGate sales, maybe looking at it from a tier perspective, it was slightly more mixed than prior quarters, entry level actually representing most growth versus the mid-range and high end. So any color on that front?

Ken Xie
Founder, Chairman of The Board, And Chief Executive Officer at Fortinet

Thats where the -- we see pretty strong growth related to the SD-WAN and OT, which more you see in the low-end unit and at the same time, the supply chain improvements help a little bit. Thats where the -- well be able to shipping more product in the low-end side. We still have some backlog in the middle high end, but its a low end had some improvement by redesign some of the products and also better supply chain right now.

Keith Jensen
Chief Financial Officer at Fortinet

Yes. Ken has talked about this in the past, the ability to introduce the new 70F product in the second quarter. We were a little bit hamstrung in Q2 and the beginning of Q3, even back Q1, really, on the low end. And I think we kind of messaged a bit in our conversations over the last quarter or so that we expected low end supply availability to really jump, if you will, in the third quarter, and we did see that. So its really more of a supply conversation in some ways as much as it is a demand conversation.

Shaul Eyal
Analyst at Cowen

Thank you for the color. Appreciate it.

Operator

Okay. Were just bringing our caller live. Okay, that caller is Shrenik Kothari Robert Baird. Shrenik, your line is live. Thank you. Okay. Lets go to the next. Brad Zelnick from Deutsche Bank. Brad, your line is live.

Brad Zelnick
Analyst at Deutsche Bank Aktiengesellschaft

Thak you so much and thank you for taking the question. Ken, just a big picture question for you to start out with. You mentioned Fortinet success is in part coming from the industry trend of vendor and product consolidation. Why is Fortinet so well positioned as a platform for consolidation? And how does this inform your product and corporate development road map in terms of the need for even more product breadth to compete with other platform competitors out there that keep adding additional functionality.

Ken Xie
Founder, Chairman of The Board, And Chief Executive Officer at Fortinet

I think we have a few unique advantage. The first from day one we developed the FortiASIC, which have a huge computing power increase compared to using traditional CPU, but also FortiASIC also working side by side with the CPU. So thats the huge computing power advantage comes from FortiASIC give us more computing power for the FortiOS to run more function, more security function including a lot of networking function. So that advantage is none of our competitors have that. So thats making us keeping driving the market share and also the unit shipment, I mentioned, we like 43% of our market shareholder unit shipment there. So thats what we keeping -- give us a long-term growth going forward because also on the convergence of security networking the secure computing power is must have a huge need to address both security and networking function there.

Second, the FortiOS is well integrated together with more functions, leveraged security and power. So thats also kind of a huge advantage for us compared to some other competitor, whether they have to use like a different blade or different functions or they have to load some different parts or even to the cloud to address some secure computing power there. And then third one, we also have about 30 different products, mostly home developed and integrate, automate well together. So thats also whats helping drive -- we call the vendor Security Fabric, Gartner called a mesh network. So thats also helping the customer to lower the management cost and total cost of ownership. I think all these three factors were keeping driving Fortinet better position for the consolidation, both on the product functionality and also on different products into a single vendor platform strategy.

Brad Zelnick
Analyst at Deutsche Bank Aktiengesellschaft

Ken. Thank you for that and its clearly working by your strategy. Maybe Keith just for you, youve disclosed quite a bit of information so much so that I have a very simple question that I just might have missed. But can you just very clearly explain for the reduction in the full year billings guidance for -- that youve given us now the update on -- with these results. Thanks.

Keith Jensen
Chief Financial Officer at Fortinet

Yes. I think youre talking about full year fourth quarter, one of the same at this point. And I would really just point to the macro environment and what weve seen really in the -- over the last 90 days in terms of economic activity, if you will, I think when you look at how that manifests for us somewhat specifically, I think Im getting a little more cautious in some of the forecasting of close timing on some of the very large deals. Weve been very successful over the last few years, and you saw some of the numbers about enterprise penetration with our growth in the enterprise. And the deals have actually gotten significantly larger as weve gone forward.

And I think its appropriate in that environment to be a little more cautious on what we expect the close rates to be. The business itself is very healthy. If I look at the end of the spectrum, the -- the small enterprise part of the business, for example, it actually outgrew the other two parts of the business in the last quarter by -- it took about one point of mix, I think, from the other two. So I feel -- feel good about the business, but just a little cautious about the macro environment as we go forward, how to forecast whats coming from the sales team.

Brad Zelnick
Analyst at Deutsche Bank Aktiengesellschaft

It makes total sense and in line with a lot of other data points that were all seeing out there. I guess just maybe as you think about what contributes to that, is there -- it doesnt sound like its anything competitive, but what are the customers doing? Are they shrinking deal sizes? Are they just taking more time and sweating out their existing assets? Any other color on that would be helpful. Thanks.

Keith Bachman
Analyst at BMO Capital Markets

Yes. I dont think were going to see deal sizes getting smaller for them because were moving into the enterprise. If we were more established there and it was just kind of the same routine over and over. The fact that were growing in the enterprise, and again, you saw the numbers is going to by itself, increase our average deal size. I certainly do feel that theres caution, as corporate America and the rest of the world is probably going through their budgeting cycles right now and looking at what theyre planning for, not only the end of 2022 and 2023. I think the other aspect of that, and again, I think this is fairly consistent with the other comments we probably heard. I dont think its a good time to really get in a position of forecasting some sort of significant budget flush in the fourth quarter. If it develops, that would be fantastic. But I think prudence is a little bit appropriate here.

Brad Zelnick
Analyst at Deutsche Bank Aktiengesellschaft

Makes total sense to me. Thanks so much for taking the questions.

Operator

Thank you sir and next up, we have Shrenik Kothari from Robert Baird. Shrenik Kothari from Robert Baird, your line is open. Thank you. Okay. We will move on to the next aquestion. Please standby. Tal Liani at Bank of America. Tal, your line is open.

Madeline Brooks
Analyst at Bank of America

Hi, It is Madeline on for Tal today. Just two quick ones for me, and I apologize if this has already been mentioned [Indecipherable] between a few earnings right now. But just to be -- just as very pointed about it, last quarter, we heard bookings, the annual bookings was a little bit softer than expected. This quarter, no disclosure in bookings. And again, I apologize, if this was already mentioned. But just want to get -- keep from your perspective directly, why no bookings for this quarter after a weaker quarter of booking last quarter?

Keith Jensen
Chief Financial Officer at Fortinet

Yes. Weve talked [Indecipherable] this before you jumped on the call and for everybodys benefit, Ill just quickly kind of go through it. I think when we got into this conversation a year ago, we felt the backlog, which is really the driver of the bookings conversation was something that we thought was important to investors to understand and be able to track how were performing as a business and what theyre seeing in the drivers. As weve moved forward, I think that if you fast forward a year later, I think we feel more comfortable now about some of the backlog forecasting.

And earlier, we made reference that backlog may exit the year, something closer to 400 or a little bit north of that. And so with that in mind, I think were bringing ourselves back into what I would call industry norms, where nobody else really discloses this information, but we thought it was appropriate for the first year. I would also offer one comment about backlog thats important, and we get a lot of conversations around cancellation rates. Our cancellation rate has been extremely consistent at about 4% each and every quarter.

Ken Xie
Founder, Chairman of The Board, And Chief Executive Officer at Fortinet

Also, the composition of backlog is kind of different now compared to one year ago, which is one year ago, I have to say, majority [Indecipherable] related to the FortiGate and now FortiGate is less than 1/3 of the whole backlog and the majority of backlog actually that come from the switch and AP WiFi, which is also kind of a more industry problem, which switch and AP more easily customer can change in different vendor compared to the security product, they have to design in, they have to a -- very high switching cost. So thats where we feel the backlog sometime is unpredictable and with the majority comes from switch and AP.

Madeline Brooks
Analyst at Bank of America

Thanks so much and just one follow-up question there, too. You guys just mentioned having a little bit of prudence for going into next year and just your guidance. Im also just wondering on the visibility side, are you seeing less visibility, the same visibility? Can you just talk to the trends that youre seeing there in your pipeline?

Keith Jensen
Chief Financial Officer at Fortinet

I think the pipeline visibility is very good. And the pipeline growth is very strong. And I think that one of the things that we did at the end of the prepared remarks was we went back to the midterm guidance numbers that we gave, I think, a $10 billion booking company in 2025 and $8 million of revenue and margins of 25% or more and basically reiterated that. And I think were doing that, which requires a 22% CAGR from this point forward. Were doing that with the -- after looking at our pipeline, looking at the strength of our pipeline so that it makes sense to us.

Madeline Brooks
Analyst at Bank of America

Got it. Thanks so much.

Operator

Okay. Getting ready for our next caller. Our next caller is Keith Bachman at BMO. Keith, your line is open. Please go ahead.

Keith Bachman
Analyst at BMO Capital Markets

Many thanks. I also had two, Keith, to start with you. I wanted to go back to the billings commentary for Q4. Just so on the revenue base is essentially the same, and therefore, its a DR impact that youre guiding lower. As you mentioned that youre expecting backlog to be less than the $500 million and maybe four and four and change. Did some of that backlog -- is it actually then flowing into the billings, and therefore, the billings guide down is even a little bit worse than it actually appears? And any other context you could draw out on where specifically that billings weakness is in Europe or what have you, but if you could flesh those out, then I had a follow-up for Ken, please.

Keith Jensen
Chief Financial Officer at Fortinet

Yes. I want to be clear, we are expecting backlog to actually increase from Q3 to Q4, not significantly, but slightly. So...

Keith Bachman
Analyst at BMO Capital Markets

Okay. So therefore, none of that backlog then is flowing into that billings in Q4, as anticipated, right?

Keith Jensen
Chief Financial Officer at Fortinet

Correct. I mean youre always going to get some existing backlog that flows in the billings, which youre going to get new backlog, net-net, its going to be an add in total to it for the year. And I think the -- and its a good question about Europe. I dont want to crossover that. Europe, its performance, you saw the revenue numbers and what we dont disclose it. I would say the billings numbers -- Europe performed very, very well in the quarter, and their pipeline remains extremely strong as we go forward. Now well see as we get through and get closer to 2023, and I certainly would really agree that there are certain tailwinds that are appropriate for Europe. But to this point, theyve done very, very well.

Keith Bachman
Analyst at BMO Capital Markets

Okay. Ken, for you, then it relates to that -- very directly relates. As we think about Europe in calendar year 23, the currency, as you alluded to, is a headwind. So I was just in Europe and customers view that the prices, since you price in dollars, have actually gone up quite a bit. So is there a risk? Or how should we think about is there a risk of prices actually needing to come down because of the dollar-based pricing and therefore, the significant price increase, if you will, felt by the Europeans -- is there a risk that prices need to come specifically down for currency next year? And/or would you see any risk more broad, whether its currency or otherwise, whereby because supply and demand is coming back into balance sometime during CY 23 that there is some risk rather than getting price increases that we might be in a situation where prices actually start to move lower?

Ken Xie
Founder, Chairman of The Board, And Chief Executive Officer at Fortinet

I think first about our price policies really, we -- when theres a cost increase like components and other, we do like -- take some ourself. And then some others we probably have to pass to the customer partner. But even with -- like price increase, were still leading the industry on the price performance on the function and the service. So thats where so far we dont see -- in the last year because of pricing.

And actually, were keeping gaining market share because we have a leading price performance especially in a lot of what we call it convergence area and also like SD-WAN, OT, this a very, very fast-growing area. So its all our price advantage compared to competitors. And also, we do see a lot of potential to drive additional service because our service charge probably average about half of our some of competitor charging, some of them offer free, some of them charging less, some of them sell as a bundle. So we do see a lot of potential growth area in the service, which also have higher margins.

Keith Bachman
Analyst at BMO Capital Markets

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Okay. Just pulling up our next caller. And its Gregg Moskowitz from Mizuho. Gregg, please go ahead. Your line is open.

Gregg Moskowitz
Analyst at Mizuho

Okay. Thank you for taking the questions. Keith, I know that you had experienced a bit of a pause in the first 10 days of June. With that in mind, how was linearity in the Q3 period? Were there any air pockets or anything that you would call out?

Keith Bachman
Analyst at BMO Capital Markets

Yes. I dont think -- we didnt see anything like we saw in the first -- good question. We didnt see anything like the two-week pause or 10 days pause. We saw the first part of June in the Q3. I think that -- when we look at linearity, you can see the DSOs, and I think its a pretty good reflection of where were at with linearity. It has not and probably will never be a 1/3, 1/3, 1/3 business in terms of linearity. Youre always going to get about 50% of your business in the final month of the quarter. But nothing really unusual about the activity there.

Gregg Moskowitz
Analyst at Mizuho

Okay, thanks and just as a follow-up, were getting quite a few questions about that billings guidance for the Q4. You outlined earlier to -- in response to Brads question, the [Indecipherable] thats sort of going into the Q4 guidance and the prudence with respect to the possibility for sales cycles to be elongated. I do just want to be fair, though, on that point. As it relates to the Q3 period and perhaps even the month of October, are you seeing any changes as it relates to average sales cycle?

Ken Xie
Founder, Chairman of The Board, And Chief Executive Officer at Fortinet

We still have a very strong pipeline, actually stronger than before. And at the same time, we built pretty healthy, strong sales capacity to meet out the demand. Keith mentioned some tenure like have about 50% of sales force actually has a tenure, probably not reach the tenure yet, which we believe will become more productive in the next six to 12 months, which also will helping drive both the top line bottom line.

Keith Jensen
Chief Financial Officer at Fortinet

So just so I dont confuse Ken because Ive already done that. So tenure is up about 50%, tenured people. We didnt have given the mix number, but it runs about 30% of the mix. So its a significant number of people that we increased that are starting new to the organization.

Gregg Moskowitz
Analyst at Mizuho

And that all make sense. Im just wondering if there were any changes perhaps that you noticed that were -- might have been macro-related affecting sales cycles over the past three to four months or so, if possible. It would just be very helpful to get a brief commentary on that as well. Thank you.

Keith Jensen
Chief Financial Officer at Fortinet

I just think that, as I said earlier in the conversation, as we started to see some -- our deal size is getting larger in the enterprise, were certainly subject to more inspection perhaps than we -- the eight-figure deals are certainly much more inspection than the seven-figure deals were.

Gregg Moskowitz
Analyst at Mizuho

Makes sense. Thanks guys.

Operator

Standby for our next question. Adam Tindle at Raymond James is our next caller. Adam, your line is open. Please go ahead.

Adam Tindle
Analyst at Raymond James

Okay, thanks. Good afternoon. Keith, I wanted to start to appreciate that you gave a little bit of color on 2023 on services growth acceleration, obviously, an exciting catalyst. I think the flip side of that is were just kind of really unsure how to think about puts and takes to the other line item on product revenue growth. Not asking, obviously, for specific guidance, but Im thinking about these tough comps. You just had very strong growth in one of the toughest comps that youve ever experienced in Q3. Your exit rate billings guidance is coming down. I think theres worry that the cancellation rates are at 4%, but could that ultimately increase with supply chain visibility. So a lot of fear on how bad product revenue growth could ultimately be and certainty on services revenue growth. So anything you could maybe point us to for a realistic view of how to think about puts and takes of product revenue growth in 23.

Keith Jensen
Chief Financial Officer at Fortinet

Yes, kind of covering some all the ground here. I dont mean that negatively. One, I would just -- again, the fact that we reiterated the midterm guidance, which is a 22% CAGR is probably a good indicator of how we think about it. I think that investors and analysts and ourselves are trying to understand the timing of when the backlog is going to reverse and actually go through the income statement and have an impact on product revenue. And its going to provide -- when it does happen, I think it will provide some elevated product revenue numbers as we look forward to it. Yes, I dont have another point to that, and I kind of lost my train of thought. I apologize.

Ken Xie
Founder, Chairman of The Board, And Chief Executive Officer at Fortinet

Yes, the growth driver we feel has not changed, like the convergence, like all the consolidation, also elevate like a threat environment. Thats how were keeping driving the product growth. And also the service also -- I think the product revenue is really the leading indicator of service revenue. So its a pretty strong product revenue growth in the last two, three years, we do see the service revenue continue to improving.

Keith Jensen
Chief Financial Officer at Fortinet

Yes. And I would come back and just talk a little bit about the cancellation rate comment that concern, again, it has been remarkably consistent at 4%, not suggesting theres something there that would be a challenge. And certainly, I think the firewall part of that, which is roughly 1/3 is probably very specific to us and not really a commodity. Theres other metrics that weve provided in the past, and we can certainly kind of go through them again over 90% to 95% of all backlog is with existing customers. Its not as if theres people coming off the street trying to order from us because theyre trying to double order or something like that. Thats just not plausible about it.

And uplift in backlog, I think, again, over 50% -- Im looking at Peter nod [Indecipherable] that he agrees with me, thats been partially delivered. So its unlikely theyre going to cancel something. So as backlog got older, do we have more concerns about it. I mean were actually aging a little bit. Yes, we did, but now were starting to see a bit of a plateau here in terms of what the backlog increases are and certainly from the easing around -- to be on the horizon around the supply chain environment. So -- while we do watch the cancellation rates very, very closely, we are not seeing indicators of concern there.

Adam Tindle
Analyst at Raymond James

Yes. I think one other stat. I think if Im recalling the numbers correctly, I have to look [Indecipherable], but I think the top 20 deals in backlog accounts for like 8% of backlog.

Keith Jensen
Chief Financial Officer at Fortinet

Yes. Thats what it was. Yes.

Adam Tindle
Analyst at Raymond James

Got it. Maybe I can sneak in a quick follow-up. Just to get all the fear out there because aftermarket move suggests theres a lot of fear. On -- from a billings basis, youre mixing towards larger deals, which is obviously a good thing for the business, but your average contract term is flat at 29 months. A number of software companies are seeing durations decline in a large in particular on those large multiyear deals. How do you think about potentially controlling for this so that duration doesnt become a headwind to billings growth? Thanks.

Keith Bachman
Analyst at BMO Capital Markets

Yes. I think as we continue -- weve said for several years that as we continue to expand into the enterprise segment, we expect that thats going to bring with the longer-term contracts. And it has shown that. If you go back a couple of years, I think average contract rates were closer to 24 or 25 months, and youre seeing that continued pressure. And I absolutely continue to believe that as we continue to have success expanding the enterprise, and that continues to be a larger part of our business, it will continue to put a bit of tailwind, if you will, on average contract term. I think also SD-WAN has shown to clearly be a longer-term contract that when customers come to the party. So were not seeing that. Im happy to see the last few quarters that weve kind of ended that 28%, 29% month and staying at that level. I was actually a little concerned that it was going to continue to grow and get into the low 30s.

Adam Tindle
Analyst at Raymond James

Thank you.

Operator

Okay. We have our last question for the session. Michael Turits at KeyBanc. Your line is open, Michael.

Michael Turits
Analyst at KeyBanc

Thanks. To the extent you can, can you talk about whether or not it seems realistic for backlog to continue to rise after this quarter? Or is that the point you think that starts to go down -- and at a fundamental level, where do you think we are relative to demand and, if you will, a refresh cycle around data centers that may have been neglected during COVID.

Ken Xie
Founder, Chairman of The Board, And Chief Executive Officer at Fortinet

Probably were not using the refresh because I feel in the last like couple of years, its some change in the network security landscape. So I probably more using the convergence, especially we see the strong growth, stong Secure SD-WAN, OT and also internal segmentation, [Indecipherable] data center security which security is starting to deploy into the position traditionally network security, not deployed. So thats actually we plan most of the growth from that area. We do get into some big enterprise. Theyre also looking at how to do the consolidation like whether networking security, working with the other part of the infrastructure security there. And we also see a lot of very growth for our business in the big enterprise there also.

So thats probably not the time really deploying in the new area and not only the environment is very, very fast and also a lot of like working from home remotely, but also a lot of new areas drive a lot of new deployment. So thats where probably were not kind of looking at refresh, replacing some of the old network security device, but its more in the new area, we see will be get the growth for a while long time in the next five to 10 years.

Michael Turits
Analyst at KeyBanc

And Keith on backlog?

Keith Jensen
Chief Financial Officer at Fortinet

Im sorry, on backlog?

Michael Turits
Analyst at KeyBanc

Yes. [Indecipherable]

Keith Jensen
Chief Financial Officer at Fortinet

I think the last quarter and then maybe in the fourth quarter it would -- the inference would be that were at a bit of a plateau.

Peter Salkowski
Vice President, Investor Relations at Fortinet

Still going to depend on supply, though, which is still the [Indecipherable]

Keith Jensen
Chief Financial Officer at Fortinet

Yes.

Michael Turits
Analyst at KeyBanc

Thanks.

Operator

Okay. At this time, I would like to turn it back to Peter Salkowski, Vice President of Investor Relations for closing remarks. Peter?

Peter Salkowski
Vice President, Investor Relations at Fortinet

Thank you, Eric. Id like to thank everyone for joining todays call. Fortinet will be attending investor conferences hosted by Barclays, Stifel and Wells Fargo during the fourth quarter. Fireside chat webcast links will be posted on the Events and Presentations section of our website. If you have any follow-up questions, please [Indecipherable]. Thank you very much.

Operator

[Operator Closing Remarks]

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