Vulcan Materials Q3 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

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Provided by Quartr
November 2, 2022

Key Takeaways

  • Q3 Financial Performance: Generated $507 M of adjusted EBITDA, a 21% increase YoY, driven by accelerated pricing growth and higher shipments across all product lines.
  • Aggregates Segment Strength: Volumes rose 9% (3% same‐store) and average selling prices jumped over 12%, lifting cash gross profit per ton 9% to $8.41.
  • Inflationary Headwinds: Diesel costs were more than 60% higher YoY and other supply costs remain elevated, prompting reliance on operational efficiencies to protect margins.
  • Upgraded 2022 Outlook: Increased full‐year adjusted EBITDA guidance to $1.64–$1.68 B, with aggregates volumes now seen up 7–8% and mid‐single‐digit growth in cash gross profit per ton.
  • Financial Flexibility: Net leverage maintained at 2.5× EBITDA, launched $550 M commercial paper program, upsized revolver to $1.6 B, and deployed over $1 B in M&A and shareholder returns.
AI Generated. May Contain Errors.
Earnings Conference Call
Vulcan Materials Q3 2022
00:00 / 00:00

There are 12 speakers on the call.

Operator

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Vulcan Materials Company Third Quarter Earnings Call. My name is Gretchen, and I will be your conference call coordinator today. Now, I will turn the call over to your host, Mr. Mark Warren, Vice President of Investor Relations for Vulcan Materials. Mr.

Operator

Warren, you may begin.

Speaker 1

Good morning, and thank you for your interest in Vulcan Materials. With me today are Tom Hill, Chairman and CEO and Mary Andrews Carlisle, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. A couple of housekeeping items before I turn the call over to Tom. First, please be reminded that today's discussion may include forward looking statements, which are subject to risks These risks, along with other legal disclaimers, are described in detail in the company's earnings release And in other filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Reconciliations of any non GAAP financial measures are defined and reconciled in our earnings release, our supplemental presentation and other SEC filings.

Speaker 1

In the interest of time, please limit your Q and A participation to one question. This will allow for more questions during our time together. Today's call is accompanied by a press release and a supplemental presentation posted to our website, volcamaterials.com. Additionally, a recording of this call will be available for replay later today at our website. And with that, I'll turn the call over to Tom.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Mark, and thanks to each of you for joining the call this morning. We appreciate your interest in Vulcan Materials Company. During the Q3, our team showcased the durable growth capabilities of our aggregates led business model. Volumes, Prices, gross profit and importantly unit profitability improved in each of our operating segments. Widespread double digit pricing growth across all segments outpaced continued cost pressures.

Speaker 2

Our momentum is strong. Throughout our organization, we remain focused on our strategic disciplines, the Vulcan way of operating and the Vulcan way of selling, And the fundamental role they play as we continue to enhance our core business. We also continue to expand our reach and we've closed several strategic acquisitions this year. Importantly, during the Q3, We acquired strategic aggregates and downstream assets that complement our existing business in Northern California. In the Q3, we generated $507,000,000 of adjusted EBITDA, which is a 21% increase Over the prior year, accelerating pricing growth and higher year over year shipments drove earnings improvement in each product line.

Speaker 2

In Aggregates, gross profit improved 17% to $436,000,000 Volume improved 9% Or 3% on a same store basis and it was geographically widespread. Pricing momentum continued, We're going from mid single digit in the first quarter to high single digit in the second quarter to double digits in the third quarter. Average selling prices on both a reported and mix adjusted basis increased over 12% from the prior year's Q3. Current pricing momentum and the visibility into future public demand growth will support a positive pricing environment for the remainder of 2022 and into 2023. As expected, our costs remained elevated in the quarter Due to continued inflationary pressures, the price per gallon of diesel was more than 60% higher than the prior year And most parts of supplies also face significant inflationary increases.

Speaker 2

Our focus on driving efficiencies through the Volcker way of operating is critical to continuing with inflationary pressures And continuing to expand our unit profitability. In the Q3, aggregate's cash gross profit per ton improved 9% To $8.41 per ton. Our asphalt segment also achieved significant improvement In the Q3 with a $22,000,000 year over year increase in cash gross profit. The average price of liquid asphalt increased by over $200 per ton compared to the prior year's Q3. That said, continued pricing momentum and healthy volumes drove favorable results in spite of the ongoing energy related cost Asphalt volumes increased 13% and asphalt pricing improved 26%.

Speaker 2

Both volume and pricing improvements were widespread with particular strength in Arizona and California, our 2 largest asphalt markets. Concrete cash gross profit in the 3rd quarter improved $25,000,000 due to The contribution from acquired operations as well as strong volume and price growth in our legacy operations. Now that we have briefly reviewed the results for the Q3, let's shift to the underlying demand environment And the outlook for construction activity. We see both challenges and opportunities in the future demand environment With different dynamics impacting each end use. Single family housing is facing considerable headwinds, But multifamily housing and private non residential starts still show growth.

Speaker 2

On the public side, Leading indicators for highways and other infrastructure are reflecting strong tax revenues and increased funding From the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act. I'll share a few highlights on each end use. Starting with residential, single family demand is now showing the impact of rising construction inflation, home prices and mortgage rates. Permits and starts are declining, albeit at slower rates in well conserved markets than the country as a whole. Multi family permits and starts remain positive.

Speaker 2

It's important to remember that residential construction activity remains at high levels. Also, household formations and limited inventories may dampen the magnitude and duration of weakness in residential demand. Private nonresidential demand and leading indicators are currently healthy And the trailing 12 month private non residential starts are up 21% over the prior year. Additionally, leading indicators remain positive With the Architectural Billings Index or ADI still greater than 50 and the Dodge Momentum Index at high levels. On the public side, we are in growth mode.

Speaker 2

Trading 12 month highway starts are up 14% and other infrastructure starts are up 18 In fact, July August were the 2 largest single months for highway awards in the last 10 years. The timing of starts converting to aggregates shipments will be a critical variable impacting next year's demand for aggregates. As we look into 2023, we expect that the current strength in private nonresidential construction activity and increased Public funding will help to offset contracting residential demand. We also carry strong pricing momentum into 2023. Our teams will be finalizing their annual planning over the next few weeks and we'll share with you our full year outlook on 2023 in February.

Speaker 2

Even with uncertainty in the broader economy, we're confident that we are well positioned to capitalize on pricing opportunities, Benefit from the generational increases in public funding and continue to expand our unit profitability. I will now turn the call over to Mary Andrews to comment further on our results and full year outlook. Mary Andrews?

Speaker 3

Thanks, Tom, and good morning. Tom highlighted the strong operating results we achieved in the Q3 in both our aggregates and non aggregates segment. So I'll focus on a few other items in the P and L, the balance sheet and our revised outlook for the full year 2022. Our SAG expenses as a percentage of revenue improved by 30 basis points versus the prior year quarter to 6.5% of revenues. Year over year increases in SAG were driven primarily by higher incentives consistent with improved earnings and elevated legal and professional fees related both to Mexico and business development activities.

Speaker 3

Our support teams have been focused on integration activities for acquired businesses And we expect to reap benefits from those activities into next year. During the quarter, we recognized a pre gain of $24,000,000 on the sale of real estate in California. Also as part of our ongoing focus on portfolio management, we are Finalizing an agreement for the disposition of our ready mix assets in New York, New Jersey and Pennsylvania. And therefore, during the quarter, we adjusted the carrying value to fair value resulting in a $68,000,000 pre tax charge. Now turning to the balance sheet.

Speaker 3

At the end of the quarter, our net leverage was 2.5x adjusted EBITDA And within our stated target range of 2 to 2.5 times. Disciplined capital management remains fundamental to our strategy And we will continue to deploy capital consistent with our long standing stated priorities. Through the 1st 9 months of this year, We've deployed $378,000,000 in operating and growth capital to support and expand our valuable franchise, $528,000,000 in M and A to grow and strengthen our market position and $159,000,000 to return cash to shareholders. Our balance sheet is strong. And during the quarter, we added another source of flexible and caustic effective capital by initiating a commercial paper program.

Speaker 3

We issued $550,000,000 of commercial paper And use the proceeds to repay half of the outstanding $1,100,000,000 term loan. In conjunction with initiating We also upsized our revolving credit facility to $1,600,000,000 and extended its maturity to August of 2027. Our investment grade balance sheet and significant cash generation capabilities On a trailing 12 month basis, our return on invested capital at quarter end was 13.6%, Inclusive of strategic acquisitions and ongoing investments in growth opportunities, we are focused on continuing to improve our returns. Now let me comment on the update to our full year 2022 adjusted EBITDA guidance. We now expect to generate between $1,640,000,000 $1,680,000,000 Continued strength and underlying demand And acquisition activity are driving aggregate shipment expectations above the upper end of our original expectations of 5% to 7%.

Speaker 3

We now expect full year aggregates volume to improve between 7% 8%. We continue to expect mid single digit growth And Aggregates cash gross profit per ton for the full year. As expected, pricing gains continued to grow in the 3rd quarter And year over year improvement and unit profitability expanded sequentially and was in line with our second half expectations. Other updates to our guidance include full year SAG expenses of approximately $520,000,000 Depreciation, depletion, amortization and accretion expenses of approximately $575,000,000 And an effective tax rate of approximately 25%. We continue to expect to spend between 600 And $650,000,000 on capital expenditures in 2022.

Speaker 3

These expenditures include both maintenance and growth projects And the higher 4th quarter pace of expenditures is reflective of expected deliveries on ordered equipment. I'll now turn the call back over to Tom for some closing remarks.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Mary Andrews. Before we go to Q and A, I want to thank our entire Vulcan team For the hard work and consistent execution. I'm proud of the results they delivered in the Q3, and I'm excited about the operations we added to Acquisitions in the quarter. I'm particularly proud of the Vulcan family members who helped to rebuild the Santa Bulk Causeway, while at the same time Copeland with the hurricane impacts on their lives. Thank all of you for your dedication to your community and to one another.

Speaker 2

We are always focused on keeping our people safe. We will continue empowering and developing our talented people And executing at a local level. We'll take advantage of the positive momentum and be nimble in addressing new challenges. I'm confident in our ability to continue driving improvement in our core business through the further development of our Vulcan Way of selling and Vulcan Way of operating Strategic disciplines, they allow us to both take advantage of opportunities and confront challenges. Vulcan's long term growth and value are durable because we have the right people, focused on the right disciplines, offering the right products And now Mary Andrews and I will be happy to take your questions.

Operator

We'll take our first question from Stanley Elliott from Stifel.

Speaker 4

Good morning, everyone. Thank you all for taking the question. Could you guys talk about, I mean, you got some momentum kind of exiting the year. Kind of how does this position you all kind of thinking about into next I mean you mentioned a little bit on the some of the end market side, but just curious to get your thoughts high level.

Speaker 2

Yes. Good morning, first of all. And I think I'll take the Q4 first and then next year. If you look at numbers in the Q4, it would really show Flat volumes compared to last year and that's really not a reflection on demand. It's more about comps and Q4 weather.

Speaker 2

So we try to be Thoughtful about this. Last year's November, December shipping rates were the highest in 10 years. In fact, November was The highest month of last year. And then you always got weather in the Q4. In fact, we've seen some of that already.

Speaker 2

The hurricane that hit Florida actually impacted us the 1st week of Q4 when it blew up through the East Coast with a lot of rain, and then we've been impacted With low water on the Mississippi, if you step back and look at the fundamentals, though, our leading indicators Are still very positive. Bookings and backlogs are up meaningful year over year and quote activity is still robust. So I think we're just trying to weigh puts and takes in the Q4. Looking to 2023, we're So you're doing those budgets right now as we speak and I appreciate our operators hard work on that. At a high level, I think 23% will depend on the magnitude of client in single family residential construction, that being offset by the timing and growth on infrastructure in private non res construction.

Speaker 2

If you look at the leading indicators in private non res and in public infrastructure, they're very positive, particularly in Vulcan markets. The starts in Vulcan markets are outpacing other markets. The non residential indicators, the ABI and the BMI, They both point to growth. On highways IIJA, we're seeing we're starting to see that impact on DOT planning. It's really a question of the timing from starts to shipments.

Speaker 2

Quote activity in both non res and highways is very good And customer sentiment is positive and you've got believe the fundamental of construction employment growth. So I think for next year, it's a matter of positives in nonresident highways being offset by single family. What I do know about 23, I think that I have confidence that we'll be able to grow our unit margins. And what gives me confidence in that is the hard work that we talked About Investor Day, what we've done and what we're doing on our strategic disciplines, the bulk we have selling, bulk we have operations. And I think we've proved that we can do that.

Speaker 2

And even with significant headwinds, we were consistent in growing unit margins in a We were consistent in growing unit margins when we saw volumes fall, and we've been pretty consistent about growing them even in the face of Dramatic inflationary pressure. So, I'm confident we'll improve regardless we'll improve unit margins in 2023 Regardless of outside forces, and that's because we just want to control our own destiny.

Speaker 4

Thomas, great color. Thanks very much and best of luck. Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from Trey Grooms from Stephens.

Speaker 5

Good morning Trey. Hey. Good morning, Tom, Mary Andrews. Thank you for taking my question. Tom, you touched on this on the prior question and answer, but if we could get more color, I mean, you guys Put up impressive improvement in aggregates unit margins.

Speaker 5

I know you spent a lot of time on the Analyst Day talking about that, And we saw that come through in the quarter, especially given the cost headwinds. And but could you talk about maybe in a little bit more detail How we should be thinking about the puts and takes as we look into the 4Q and into 2023 on the cash gross Profit per ton improvements. I know you mentioned the confidence there in growing, but any further color would be great.

Speaker 2

Sure. I think as I look at the 4th quarter Much like the Q3, I think we'll continue that momentum and I think that would look at it pretty much consistent with Q3. Again, we carry good pricing momentum into 2023, and we'll get into that more detail, but work to be done there is not we We don't have that in the bag yet, but and then from a operating efficiencies, you saw that when we talked about that in September. It's really more throughput, Less downtime and being efficient with your labor and your inspections on your equipment to catch it before it breaks. And I think Those disciplines are in place.

Speaker 2

We're improving. We've got the automation in place now. Still work to be done on it, but it's about Consistent continuous improvement.

Speaker 5

Okay. I'll leave it at that. Thank you very much for the color.

Speaker 2

Thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from Jerry Revich from Goldman Sachs.

Speaker 6

Good morning, everyone. Hi. Can we just talk about the really strong acceleration in your Aggregates organic volumes and margin improvement within the context of the headwinds that you're facing from And operations, what extent have you been able to hit the same markets from rail lines versus The prior transportation method and can you just bridge for us the year over year margin improvement given the drag Having those operations down year over year had in the quarter? Thanks.

Speaker 2

Yes. I think if you just step back and look at Mexico, nothing's changed there. We'll The shutdown, the impact is still going to be that $80,000,000 to $100,000,000 for the full year and that's built into our guidance. If you look at volumes, the volume growth was really widespread. It's not it's in every market we had.

Speaker 2

And So it was very widespread. We were have not been able to make up the volumes on the coast. And just because the railroads can't we can't mitigate it with because the railroads can't pull the volume, in fact, they couldn't pull the volume we wanted to ship Prior to Mexico being shut down, so that has just been a loss for us and one that you've seen us made up kind of throughout our markets.

Speaker 6

And Todd, can you comment on the margin piece because that $80,000,000 to $100,000,000 run rate, that's The headwind that you folks overcame in the quarter, any additional context you can provide?

Speaker 2

Yes. I mean, it's just a matter of those strategic disciplines at work. You've got price up 12.5% and you've When is it work? You've got price up 12.5% and you've got operating efficiencies are in place and Working and continue to improve. We're at $8.41 per ton in the Q3, so we're barreling towards that $9 This is why we placed another target at 11 to 12, but I think it's just fundamental solid operations and execution.

Speaker 6

Well done. Thank you.

Speaker 7

Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from Phil Ngai from Jefferies.

Speaker 8

Hey, guys. Congrats on a really strong quarter and a really good execution across the board. Tom, I guess, you gave us some Qualitative color on how to think about 2023. One of your competitors guided to flat volumes for next year. I know you guys are still kind of Can you kind of help unpack how you're thinking about some of these end markets where it's housing, non res and infrastructure are some of the good guys And you have to offset that?

Speaker 8

And then on the DOT side, when do you start anticipating that inflection that kind of popped? Just wanted to give some color in terms The cadence and that flow through next year.

Speaker 2

I think that you asked the right question about when does the highways pop. If you look at starts and highways on a trailing 6 month basis, it's up 17% on a 3 month basis, it's up 27%. The fundamentals for multiyear growth in highways and infrastructure are very good. You've got substantial funding, both state, county, city. You add to that the COVID funds, for example, highways funding went up in Florida 1 $500,000,000 from COVID funds.

Speaker 2

So there's substantial funding everywhere and you're starting to see that flow into lettings. In fact, we booked Substantial highway work in the last 90 days. So biddings and bookings growth should continue through the Q4 and through 'twenty three And probably for another 5 or 6 years. At this point, it's not if, but when. It's a matter of timing and The speed to get funding to lettings, which you're starting to see, lettings to aggregate shipments, admittedly the DOTs have struggled, Continue to struggle a little bit to get money out, but they're obviously making progress with those trailing 3 month starts at the 27%.

Speaker 2

And For example, Caltrans, the 'twenty one, 'twenty two lettings, where target was $4,900,000,000 They We fell short by $500,000,000 which they shifted into 2023 plans, which is now $5,400,000,000 and the next year is $7,200,000,000 So highways is growing. I think it's just really A matter of speed and how fast they can get to work. I think, again, what I'm encouraged at is the last 90 days At 27% improvements on starts, that's a big deal and we're seeing in lettings and you can see that start to flow as people are making plans for calendar year 2023. On non res, it's remarkably strong And growing and starts are way up and it's widespread.

Operator

Our next question comes from Mike Dahl from RBC Capital Markets.

Speaker 9

Thanks for taking my questions. Can we talk about inflation a little bit and Yes. Maybe give us a little more color on how you're seeing that evolve into the 4th quarter, Where you've seen any easing, if you have seen easing and conversely, if there are any incremental pressures you're seeing. And they talked If things stay the way they are, what that means for carryover inflation into the beginning of next year?

Speaker 2

Yes, I would call the Q4 similar to Q3. The cost inflation just remains stubbornly high. We're obviously offsetting that with price and operating efficiencies or some of it. The parts and service costs are and will probably stay high. I would think that would be for sure in the Q4, and I would expect it into 2023.

Speaker 2

Obviously, energy headwinds Have been particularly diesel has been extremely tough year to date. That's just under $100,000,000 headwind for us. So I think we should expect most of the cost inflation to remain elevated for sure in the Q4, and I would expect it into 2023.

Speaker 9

Okay. That helps. Thanks. And my second question is just on the sale of the ready mix That's the Trust Data in Pennsylvania. Can you just walk us through that a little bit more kind of rationale?

Speaker 9

And then any comments on Yes. As you've evaluated the portfolio post the U. S. Concrete deal, is this kind of The last chunky thing or are there other things potentially on the horizon?

Speaker 2

When we bought this, we said we would We would evaluate we take a year to evaluate and look at our hand and us selling the ready mix business is Well, we're selling the ready mix business up there. We're keeping the aggregates business. And this is us just optimizing our portfolio. We felt like that After looking at it, the ready mix business up there fit others better than it did us. We had plenty of suitors.

Speaker 2

Again, we like the aggregates business. It's a that's a good infrastructure play. It's a well structured aggregate market, which we think is a platform for growth. And all you're seeing there is us optimizing our portfolio.

Speaker 9

Got it. Okay. Thank you.

Speaker 2

Sure.

Operator

Our next question comes from Michael Fenner from Bank of America. Good

Speaker 10

morning, Tom. Thanks for taking my questions. Obviously, The concern on demand has been around housing and implications there. So Tom, I believe your shipments peaked last Cycle in 2,005 with housing, yet you were able to really grow strongly in 2,006 and 2007. I believe shipments are still kind of flat to down in that period.

Speaker 10

So could we see similar playbook here for 20 20 3.24 with housing down, the resi down yet infrastructure strong and pricing. Maybe you can kind of just talk through the

Speaker 6

similarities from what we're seeing now compared

Speaker 10

to that From what we're seeing now compared to that 'five period when housing started to turn?

Speaker 2

Housing has turned, we know that. I think that the starts point to it as do permits. I think what you got to step back and remember what's very different this time is, it's the fundamentals for Single family residential growth in our markets still are they're still there. You've got extremely low inventories. You've got good Employment and you've got population growth.

Speaker 2

So the underlying fundamentals, we're not overbuilt like we were And when housing went down the last time, so I would expect it to have less depth and less length of time. That being said, I think What really is different for me is, the non res side. It is very strong. All end uses are up. That's office in stores, warehouses, manufacturing, industrial and institutional, and the leading indicators show growth.

Speaker 2

For example, if you look at square footage, which is how we have to look at it, 20 12 month starts are up 29% in our markets versus 11 and others in 23 months is up 47% in our markets versus 9% in non Vulcan markets. So Again, it's widespread. It's across all end uses. And what stands out for me also is The manufacturing growth in the Southeast, and these are big jobs That we've built on. And let me just let me see if I can just take a few of those.

Speaker 2

You've got, For example, Big River Steel in Arkansas is probably 500,000 tons. You've got Universal Epic Park in Orlando, Smith Farms Industrial Park in South Carolina, the big Ford Electric Vehicle Center in Tennessee and the Samsung Ship Plant in Texas. So, and the list keeps going. So, I'm, I guess a little bit surprised, but very pleased with the rate of growth we're seeing in non res.

Speaker 3

Yes. And I think One other thing as we think about kind of 2,005 era versus now more internally, I think we're in a different place with the Focus that we've put on our strategic disciplines and the Vulcan way of selling and the Vulcan way of operating, which we're confident will Be helpful regardless of the macro environment.

Speaker 10

Helpful. Thank you. And just my second question on the aggregate side, you reported incremental margin of 21%, 31% ex freight. Just bigger picture, I know we're not guiding here, but if we turn to Next year and you're getting double digit growth, which is all price or price led. You don't have another $100,000,000 headwind from Energy, let's say, you don't have a headwind there.

Speaker 10

What's the right incremental operating margin we should kind of On that aggregate side, if we don't have that cost or inflationary headwind? Thank you.

Speaker 3

Yes. On the incrementals, as we always do, we'll guide you back to over the long term and on a same store basis to that Kind of 60%, obviously, the dynamics in these volatile inflationary times make those numbers jump all over the place. But we always take you back to that 60 over the long term.

Speaker 6

Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from Garik Shmois from Leaf Capital.

Speaker 7

Hi, thanks for taking my question. I was wondering if you could talk a bit about How much pricing do you expect to carry over into 2023 from some of the midyear actions you took this year in aggregate? Just how to think about pricing broadly Moving forward, given some of the demand uncertainty and if you could maybe give us some color on how the discussions are going around your early Next year price increases at this point that would be helpful.

Speaker 2

Sure. The pricing environment continues to be Very good and really driven by visibility to growth in infrastructure and inflation. As we said last quarter, we saw we're going to see prices sequentially grow. We saw it grow from Q1 to Q2, and then it really jumped from Q2 to Q3, I would say Q4 similar to Q3. And that growth has really supported The big jump from 2 to 3 by the July price increases and higher price bid work.

Speaker 2

And that pricing is widespread across We'll close all of our markets. And importantly, we're able to take it to the bottom line through the Vulcan Web selling and Vulcan Web ops. If you look at next year, we carry a lot of that momentum into 'twenty three, as do our ready mix asphalt and contract with customers. The work we're bidding now will ship in 2023. So we're setting the table right now.

Speaker 2

And we've had our we're having our January Pricing conversations for fixed plants, and I think those have gone well. But remember, work to be done. The second half Comps are going to be a lot tougher. And so while we got good momentum and have a good start to 'twenty three, we still got to be worked We still have to do work to earn that price particularly in the second half.

Speaker 7

Got it. Thanks for that.

Operator

Our next question comes from Kathryn Thompson from Thompson Research Group.

Speaker 11

Thank you for taking my question today. You've been spending time cleaning up portfolio with the assets in the North East. But as we look forward, you've also mentioned focusing on M and A and growth, Particularly in a market that is a bit uncertain right now, how do you focus on hardware do you focus on Growing your portfolio in light of the current dynamic. Thank you.

Speaker 2

Yes. I mean, you saw us do some of that This year, we bought some very strategic assets in Northern California and Coastal Texas that fit us well and fit our network and And our network, I think that as we look at acquisitions, you probably see a little bit maybe a little bit of slowing, Which usually happens in times of uncertainty. And I think our position here is to be opportunistic and disciplined as always, Particularly what markets you want to be in, to your point, you got to be very disciplined about what markets you want to be in and what you don't and what product lines you want to be in, in those markets. So We'll continue that. I think this was a typical year with a number of strategic aggregate bolt ons and we'll I think you'll Continue to see us do that.

Speaker 11

Okay, great. Thank you very much.

Speaker 7

Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from Anthony Pettitari from Citi.

Speaker 4

Good morning. Good morning. Over the past year, we've heard about tight cement and RMC markets being a bottleneck for ag volumes. As the housing market has softened, have you seen that start to loosen or is that something that you anticipate to see in 2023? Just wondering if you can talk a

Speaker 10

little bit about those downstream markets. Yes.

Speaker 2

It has been tight. I mean, maybe a little bit of a headwind on Aggregates, I'm not sure drivers and trucks wouldn't have been a headwind anyway. With that, we've really not seen a lot of The housing market tightened in our markets yet, maybe a little bit in Northern California and North Texas, but really we've not We've seen it yet. We know with leading indicators, we know it's going to come. I would expect most markets to continue to be Somewhat tight on cement even with the head even with the loosening of residential starts.

Speaker 6

Okay. That's helpful. I'll turn it over. Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from Adam Heimer from Thompson Davis.

Speaker 8

Hey, good morning, guys. Congrats on a great quarter.

Speaker 2

Thank you.

Operator

Good morning.

Speaker 8

I wanted to 0 in on the North East Concrete sale, what was the impact to that in terms of Q3 gross profit? Because I guess you put that in Assets held for sale, so you took that out of the Concrete segment for Q3. And then what will be the total impact to the back half of the year Vis a vis taking that out versus your guidance.

Speaker 3

Yes, Adam, you're right. We did reclassify the assets that sell for sale on the balance We continue those operations are still reflected in the P and L and continuing ops. And in terms of The rest of the year, we've taken that into account in the updated guidance that we provided. And once It closes. We can comment more on the details of that transaction.

Speaker 8

Okay. But for Q3, Northeast is in the concrete Gross profit numbers?

Speaker 3

That's correct.

Speaker 5

Okay.

Speaker 7

Thank you very much.

Speaker 2

Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from Timna Tanners from Wolfe Research. Hey, good morning guys.

Speaker 3

Good morning. Good morning. Just wanted to follow-up and I know this is tricky, but on the Mexican, Corey, if you were in our shoes, how would you think about 1, the timing of any restart or ability to restart and 2, any compensation for lost revenue. Any Any updated thoughts there or any progress would be great. Thanks.

Speaker 2

I wouldn't count on a restart. I would count on that the $80,000,000 to $100,000,000 is built into our guidance. It's the volumes in our volumes and such as all the earnings. We filed an application with the NAF arbitration For to seek additional claims because of the closure. And in July, we were very pleased.

Speaker 2

The tribunal granted our application to seek further claims. We're pleased with that decision. We hope to know a lot more in 2023, but these things take time. We've not made the claim public, mainly because we're still working on the magnitude of the ancillary claim. So Work to be done on that one, but we do feel like we'll be compensated.

Speaker 2

We do feel like we have a good case. And we felt like the tribunal recognized that We're letting us open that back up in July.

Speaker 3

Okay. Any like things to watch for like any upcoming I mean, court dates or timeframes to watch for that could be road further progress?

Speaker 2

It will be next year. And again, it takes time. I would say, as things come, as we know, we'll let you know. But no hard dates at this point.

Operator

Okay. Appreciate the update. Thanks.

Speaker 2

Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from Dylan Cummings from Morgan Stanley.

Speaker 7

Hey, good morning. Thanks for the question.

Speaker 6

Sorry to ask another one on Mexico, but just you kind of noted in your release that you had acquired Acori and Honduras, I believe, which is a good service of those things, Gulf Coast Markets. Just kind of wanted to ask if there were any kind of like less obvious ways South America and otherwise You might be able to actually fill in those volumes that we

Speaker 7

should be watching for into next year as well?

Speaker 2

No. I mean, that was a business we had already been associated with. We had A distribution agreement in place for that quarter for 4 years. So we've been selling those materials as a complementary product to our Blue Water Networks since 2019. So it's not additive volume.

Speaker 2

It will be it's lower March, Substantially lower margins than Mexico. We've gotten the question, well, can you expand it? And it would be logistically really Difficult. Considerably increased the volumes from where they are today because of where that quarry is and Some of the shipping constraints, it was we had it in business for the last few years really as a complementary source to Supply those coastal markets. So it's really not a replacement for tons in Mexico or profitability in Mexico.

Speaker 7

Great. Thank you. Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from Keith Hughes from Trist.

Speaker 7

Thank you. Just within the Q4 kind of implied guide, do you think in the aggregate segment, will you be able to grow margins, in other

Speaker 2

Expect a very similar performance to what you saw in Q3. So we've gotten our price out ahead of cost. We're I don't expect cost to The replacement pressure is to go down either in Q4 or 2023. So that's kind of how I look at it. Mary Andres?

Speaker 3

Yes. And Keith, I think on a gross margin basis, kind of what we discussed at the Q2 was we expected in the back half that the margins would Squeeze closer to the prior year, you saw that in the Q3. The delta was about half of what it was in the Q2 and I think that that We'll continue to improve in the Q4.

Speaker 7

Okay. You had a really nice improvement in concrete in 3rd, would we expect similar type of improvement in the 4th?

Speaker 2

I think I would expect a similar performance In the quarter, I'd expect it to start going up again Q1 of next year as we raise as we have price increases in the 1st year in concrete.

Speaker 7

All right. Thank you. Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from Tyler Brown from Raymond James.

Speaker 1

Hey, good morning.

Speaker 2

Good morning.

Speaker 3

Good morning.

Speaker 1

Hey, Mary Andrews, I know it's a bit early, but I want to start thinking about the building blocks on the free cash flow side for next I think that bonus depreciation actually steps down in 'twenty three. That may put some pressure on cash taxes. I think cash interest is probably a headwind. Just any color on those two items specifically and the magnitude and what that might mean for free cash?

Speaker 3

We'll give obviously give more guidance on that when we get to February. I think you're thinking about those interest components Correctly. Our conversion ratios have remained at really, really healthy levels and I don't think expect that to change materially in 2023.

Speaker 1

Okay. All right. Perfect. Thanks.

Operator

The next question comes from David MacGregor from Longbow Research.

Speaker 7

Yes. Good morning, everyone.

Speaker 3

Good morning.

Speaker 7

Good morning. Great quarter. Congratulations on the results. I wanted to ask you about the revised shipment guidance and Going from 5 to 7 up to 7 to 8. And how much of this would you relate to improving demand versus maybe easing constraints?

Speaker 7

And I guess with respect to some of those constraints, are they evolving in a favorable way as economic growth eases in this country? And And will 2023 be any different?

Speaker 2

Yes. I think you've seen a little bit of easing in constraints in construction, But there's still substantial the railroad constraints were still while they've improved a little bit, we still got bottlenecks. On a good shipping day, you still have trucking constraints, albeit both of them are a little bit better than maybe they were a year ago. Same thing with builders. They're still having problems getting supplies and getting parts and get them in a timely manner, and they're holding up construction again maybe a little better.

Speaker 2

We said at the beginning of the year that the underlying demand was better than what we had predicted, and we continue to see That underlying demand would be pretty good, albeit up starting to see some softness in LIDI indicators in single family. I think it's a combination of demand remains very good and some easing of bottlenecks, although they're still there.

Speaker 7

Thoughts with respect to whether it gets any better in 2023?

Speaker 2

Yes. I think it continues to improve. I think it's slow. I think that I think the railroads are adding people. Obviously, We're getting more efficient with our trucking through the Vulcan Web selling.

Speaker 2

And I think in supplies for construction, I think continue to Slowly improve as we go through 2023.

Speaker 3

Yes. And another impact on the full year volume guide Acquisition activity and just the healthy underlying demand held up.

Speaker 11

Got it.

Speaker 7

Thank you very much. Thank you.

Operator

Our last question comes from Michael Dudas from Vertical Research.

Speaker 7

Thanks for getting me in. Good morning, Mark, Tom and Mary Andrews. Maybe to follow-up on the previous questions back on Free cash. As you're looking at your plans for 2023, not to put out the exact guidance, but relative to CapEx spending levels This year,

Speaker 2

are you caught up from some

Speaker 7

of the delays from the pandemic relative to some of the maintenance of growth opportunities? And since you implied that potentially because of the uncertainty, acquisitions may be a little bit more tricky or may be deferred, How does that impact relative allocation towards either balance sheet or capital return to shareholders?

Speaker 8

Thank you.

Speaker 3

So I think on CapEx, Like our operating plans, we're in the middle of finalizing our 2023 needs right now. I don't think I would Expect anything substantially different. We have hopefully been able to catch up some of the Lack of spending in 2020 2021, you'll note that our pace of spending in Q4 We'll accelerate from what it has been and that's dependent upon receiving equipment. So we'll just See how that shakes out and that will somewhat impact 2023 as well. But over the longer term, I think about CapEx as the need vary with volume more than anything else and more than time.

Speaker 3

And so We wouldn't see anything meaningfully different.

Operator

And that appears to be our last question. I will now turn the program back to management for any additional or closing remarks.

Speaker 2

Thank you. I want to take a minute and thank the entire Vulcan team for their tireless efforts to ensure continuous improvement regardless of what the world throws at them. We appreciate your interest in Vulcan Materials, and we look forward to talking to you through the quarter. Thank you, and have a safe day.

Operator

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This concludes today's conference. You may now disconnect.

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