TJX Companies Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
November 16, 2022

Key Takeaways

  • Q3 performance: Pretax margin of 11.2% (up 20 bps) exceeded guidance, adjusted EPS of $0.86 beat expectations, and U.S. comps of –2% (14% on a 3-year stack) were driven by strong Marmaxx apparel sales.
  • Inventory & supply chain: Q3 inventory rose 26% (31% per store) due to earlier receipts, yet inventory turns and markdowns remain in line with fiscal 2020, and management is comfortable with current levels.
  • Holiday outlook: For Q4, comps are expected to be flat to +1% versus a challenging prior-year comp, with emphasis on delivering excellent value, fresh branded assortments flowing to stores and online multiple times a week, and multi-banner marketing campaigns.
  • Medium-term guidance: TJX targets a return to a 10.6% pretax margin by fiscal 2025, assuming moderating expense headwinds, a freight tailwind and low single-digit comp growth, while leveraging its flexible off-price model to gain market share.
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Earnings Conference Call
TJX Companies Q3 2023
00:00 / 00:00

There are 12 speakers on the call.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to The TJX Companies Third Quarter Fiscal 2023 Financial Results Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode. Later, we will conduct a question and answer session. 1.

Operator

As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded November 16, 2022. I would like to turn the conference call over to Mr. Ernie Herrmann, Chief Executive Officer and President of The TJX Companies Inc. Please go ahead, sir.

Speaker 1

Thank you, Fran. Before we begin, Jeff has some opening comments.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Ernie, and good morning. The forward looking statements we make today about the company's results and plans are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause the actual results and the implementation of the company's plans to vary materially. These risks are discussed in the company's SEC filings, including without limitation, the Form 10 ks filed March 30, 2022. Further, these comments and the Q and A that follows are copyrighted today by The TJX Companies Inc. Any recording, retransmission, reproduction or other use of the same for profit or otherwise without prior consent of TJX is prohibited and a violation of United States copyright laws.

Speaker 2

Additionally, while we have approved the publishing of a transcript of this call by a third party, We take no responsibility for inaccuracies that may appear in that transcript. We have detailed the impact of foreign exchange on our consolidated results and our international divisions in today's press release and the Investors section of our website, tjx.com. Reconciliations of the non GAAP measures we discuss today to GAAP measures are posted on our website, tjx.com, in the Investors section. Thank you. And now I'll turn it back over to Ernie.

Speaker 1

Thanks, Jeff. Good morning. Joining me and Jeff on the call is Scott Goldenberg. As we announced today, John Klinger is being promoted to Chief Financial Officer at the beginning of our new fiscal year in late January. I wanted to take this opportunity to congratulate John on his broader role and I look forward to working more closely with him as we move forward.

Speaker 1

Scott is remaining with the company as Senior Executive Vice President, Finance. I would like to recognize his long and Extremely successful tenure as CFO for which we are enormously grateful. I cannot emphasize enough how beneficial Scott has been to me personally. He has truly been a great partner. We are very pleased that TJX will continue to benefit from both John and Scott's expertise and leadership.

Speaker 1

I'll start today by thanking all of our global associates for their hard work and commitment to TJX. We truly appreciate their collective efforts to deliver great merchandise and values to our shoppers every day. Now to our results. I am very pleased with our Q3 performance. Once again, we delivered strong profitability and a terrific merchandise margin.

Speaker 1

On the top line, our better than expected U. S. Comp sales were driven by the excellent performance at Marmaxx, particularly its apparel business, where sales were strong. Our Q3 results once again highlight the outstanding execution of our flexible business model by our very talented associates. While our business is not immune to macro factors, I am convinced that the flexibility of our off price retail model and the depth of our expertise and experience, especially within our merchant organization, will remain an important advantage for us.

Speaker 1

As we enter the Q4, we are in a terrific position to take advantage of the tremendous buying environment and to flow fresh, Exciting assortments to our stores and online this holiday season. We have many initiatives planned to drive sales and our value proposition remains very strong. Further, we are convinced that our great values will continue to resonate with consumers whose wallets remain stretched. Medium and longer term, we remain extremely confident that TJX is well positioned to gain market share and become an even more profitable company. I'll talk more about our holiday plans and our opportunities beyond 2022 in a moment.

Speaker 1

Before I continue, though, I'll turn the call over to Scott to cover our Q3 financial results in more detail. Scott?

Speaker 3

Thanks, Ernie, and good morning, everyone. I'll start with some additional details on the Q3. 3rd quarter consolidated pretax margin of 11.2% was up 20 basis points versus last year. 3rd quarter pretax margin exceeded the high end of our guidance, largely due to the timing of some expenses. Our plans for the Q4 assume that most of this benefit will reverse out.

Speaker 3

Aside from the timing of expenses, the other components of our pre tax margin were essentially in line with the high end of our plan. Merchandise margin was flat despite 120 basis points of incremental freight pressure. Within merchandise margin, we saw a significant benefit from MarkOn, mostly due to better buying. Incremental wage costs continued to be a headwind to pretax margin with a negative impact of 80 basis points this quarter. 3rd quarter U.

Speaker 3

S. Comp store sales decreased 2% and exceeded our expectations. As a reminder, we were anniversarying an outsized 16% U. S. Open only comp increase last year, which was versus fiscal 2020.

Speaker 3

When added together, our comp would represent a 14% increase on a 3 year stack basis. Further, U. S. Comp sales improved each month of the quarter on that same 3 year stack basis. Excluding foreign exchange, 3rd quarter total sales would have been at the high end of our guidance.

Speaker 3

For the Q3, U. S. Average basket was up. U. S.

Speaker 3

Customer traffic was down, but strengthened as the quarter progressed and improved versus the Q2. Lastly, adjusted earnings per share were $0.86 Again, this was above the high end of our guidance largely due to a benefit from the timing of some expenses and our plans for the Q4 assume that most of this Now to our divisional results. At Marmaxx, 3rd quarter segment profit margin was 13.5%. Comp store sales increased 3% versus an 11% open only comp increase last year. Marmaxx's comp sales were positive each month and improved throughout the quarter.

Speaker 3

Again, it was great to see a strong comp increase in Marmaxx's Apparel Business. Once again, Marmaxx's average basket increased as it has throughout the year. While customer traffic was down, Marmaxx saw improvement each month of the quarter and versus the 2nd quarter. At HomeGoods, 3rd quarter segment profit margin was 8.9%. The segment profit margin improvement versus the first half of this year was mostly due to a significant moderation of the year over year impact of incremental freight costs.

Speaker 3

Comp store sales decreased 16% versus a 34% open only comp increase last year, when we saw an outsized when we saw outsized spending in home related categories. HomeGoods' average basket increased slightly. At TJX Canada, we are pleased with their overall performance, particularly their strong profitability. 3rd quarter segment profit margin was 15.8 percent, exceeding their fiscal 'twenty margin. Overall, sales on a constant currency basis were up 4 in the Q3.

Speaker 3

Further, Q3 Canadian sales growth also improved each month of the quarter when compared to fiscal 2020. At TJX International, 3rd quarter segment profit margin was 6.7%. Despite some deleverage from lower sales, pre tax margin was essentially in line versus fiscal 'twenty due to better buying and expense management, which mostly offset incremental freight wage and other expense pressures. Overall sales on a constant currency basis were down 1% from the 3rd quarter. Moving to inventory.

Speaker 3

Our balance sheet inventory was up 26% versus the Q3 last year. This is higher than we expected due to early receipts of merchandise as the supply chain continued to improve. On a per store basis, inventory was up 31% on a constant currency basis. We are very comfortable with our balance sheet and store inventory levels Compared to fiscal 2020. Importantly, overall store inventory turns and markdowns are in line with our fiscal 2020 levels.

Speaker 3

We saw plenty of liquidity and are in excellent position to take advantage of the great buying environment, including packaway opportunities. I'll finish with our liquidity and shareholder distributions. During the Q3, we generated $1,100,000,000 of operating cash flow and ended the quarter with $3,400,000,000 in cash. In the 3rd quarter, we returned $843,000,000 to shareholders through our buyback and dividend programs. Now I will turn it back to Ernie.

Speaker 1

Thanks, Scott. Now I'd like to highlight the opportunities we see to drive traffic and sales in the 4th quarter. 1st, In this inflationary environment, we believe it is as important as ever to deliver shoppers excellent value throughout the store and online every time they visit. This is our top priority and I am confident that our banners will be a destination for consumers seeking great value this holiday season. 2nd, as I've been saying all year long, the marketplace is absolutely loaded with quality branded merchandise across good, better and best brands.

Speaker 1

Importantly, this has set us up very well to offer an excellent assortment of branded gifts this holiday season that we believe will excite and inspire our shoppers. 3rd, I want to highlight that we plan to flow fresh product to our stores and online multiple times a week, which is a key I am confident that shoppers are going to be very satisfied with the gift assortments they see every time they visit. Our store teams are excellent at managing this flow and creating fresh organized shopping presentations throughout our stores. Next, we feel great about our holiday marketing campaigns that just launched. We believe these campaigns can help drive traffic from both new and existing shoppers across each of our banners.

Speaker 1

This year, each of our divisions will reinforce our value leadership and emphasize that shoppers can get more for their money when they visit. We are also highlighting the fresh flow of merchandise throughout the holiday season with messaging such as spend less, get more All season long. In the U. S. And Canada, we are leveraging the strengths of our retail brand portfolio in multi banner campaigns, helping to drive efficiencies and building awareness.

Speaker 1

Further, for all our retail banners, we have strong comprehensive marketing Successfully operate our business against some level of retail promotion every year for the past 46 years. I really want to emphasize that we are extremely confident that we can manage through any type of promotional environment that we may see from other retailers in the Q4 and beyond. Looking beyond this year, we are convinced that we are set up very well Capitalize on the growth opportunities we see for our business in the medium and long term. To drive sales and traffic as we attract a wide range of customers across many income demographics, which we believe is a key advantage of our business. Further, we have substantial store growth potential remaining in our current geographies around the world.

Speaker 1

In a retail environment where overall pricing has been reset higher, we believe our value proposition will be even more compelling and visible to Consumers and that our treasure hunt shopping experience will hold tremendous appeal. I want to reiterate Our continued confidence and product availability to support our long term growth plans. Throughout our history, availability of Quality branded inventory has never been an issue for us. Our more than 1200 buyers source from a universe of approximately 21,000 vendors and from over 100 countries. There has Always been significantly more merchandise in the marketplace than we could buy, and we expect that to continue.

Speaker 1

As to our profitability outlook, we remain committed to returning to our fiscal 2020 pretax margin level. To be clear, that would be a 10.6 percent pre tax margin by fiscal 2025. Over the next 2 years, our plans assume additional merchandise margin opportunities across all of our divisions. We also expect our overall expense headwinds to moderate and that freight will be a tailwind next year. Lastly, this outlook assumes that our overall comp store sales will return to a low single digit increase in each of the next 2 years.

Speaker 1

Turning to corporate responsibility. I am pleased to share with you Our 2022 Global Corporate Responsibility Report was published this past quarter and is available on tjx.com. This report summarizes our fiscal 2022 initiatives and progress within our four areas of focus, which are workplace, communities, environmental sustainability and responsible business. The report includes an appendix of ESG data and maps Our work and disclosures to a variety of ESG standards and frameworks, including the Global Reporting Initiative, United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals and the Sustainability Accounting Standards Board. We're proud to continue to make progress in our programs and initiatives, and I'm grateful to our teams around the globe for the work they do to support our global priorities.

Speaker 1

As always, we invite you to visit tjx.com to read our full report, and we'll continue to update the site over the next year. In closing, I want to again thank all of our associates around the world for their hard work that led to our strong results in the Q3. Our teams have put us in an excellent position this holiday season. I am convinced that we have some of the best talent in all of retail and across all areas of the business. Further, I believe their depth of off price knowledge and expertise is unmatched and has driven our strong execution.

Speaker 1

I truly believe our associates will continue to be a major advantage for TJX going forward. I am convinced that the flexibility of our off price model and our commitment to value set us apart and have allowed us to Successfully operate in many different economic, retail and promotional environments. While we are impacted by macro factors, We have historically outperformed in both good and bad environments throughout our 45 plus year history. We are confident Now, I'll turn the call back to Scott to cover our full year and 4th quarter guidance, and then we'll open it up for questions. Scott?

Speaker 3

Thanks again, Ernie. I'll start with the full year. We increased our outlook for full year U. S. Comp sales and now expect them to be down 1% to down 2% versus our previous guidance of down 2% to down 3%.

Speaker 3

This guidance now reflects the flow through of our above planned Q3 U. S. Comp sales and our increased expectations for the Q4. For the full year, we're now planning total TJX sales in the range of 49.3 to $49,500,000,000 The change versus our previous guidance is due to our forecast that unfavorable foreign exchange rates will negatively impact our 4th quarter reported sales. For full year adjusted pre tax margins, We're anticipating a range of 9.8% to 9.9%, maintaining the high end of our full year margin guidance.

Speaker 3

For full year adjusted earnings per share, we now expect a range of $3.07 to $3.11 which is up 8% to 9% over last year's adjusted $2.85 The change to the high end versus our previous guidance is due to an incremental $0.02 Negative impact from unfavorable foreign exchange rates. Excluding this foreign exchange and incremental Foreign exchange impact, the high end of our adjusted EPS guidance would be unchanged. For modeling purposes, For the full year, we're currently anticipating approximately 130 basis points of incremental freight expense And 70 basis points of incremental wage costs. Also, we're assuming an adjusted tax rate of 25.3 percent, Net interest expense of approximately $10,000,000 and a weighted average share count of approximately 1,180,000,000 We remain committed to returning cash to shareholders through our dividend and stock repurchase programs. In fiscal 'twenty three, we continue to expect to buyback 2.25 to 2.50 of TJX stock.

Speaker 3

Now to the Q4. For the Q4, we are increasing Our plan for U. S. Comp store sales to be flat to up 1% over an outsized 13% U. S.

Speaker 3

Open only Comp store sales increased last year. Next, we are planning total 4th quarter TJX sales in the range of 13.9 to $14,100,000,000 In the Q4, we're now assuming in the Q4, we're now planning pretax margin in the range of 9.5 to 9.8%. This outlook now assumes that most of our third the 3rd quarter timing of expenses the expense benefit will reverse out in the Q4. For modeling purposes, in the Q4, we're currently expecting a headwind from incremental wage costs and for freight to be flat. We're also anticipating a tax rate of 24.9%, net interest income of approximately 19,000,000 and a weighted average share count of approximately 1,170,000,000.

Speaker 3

As a result of all of these assumptions, We're planning 4th quarter EPS of $0.85 to $0.89 per share. This outlook now assumes that most of the 3rd quarter timing of expense benefits will reverse out in the Q4 and also reflects an expected unfavorable impact due to foreign exchange rates. In closing, I want to highlight that we are in great position operationally and financially to grow our business. We have a very strong balance And continue to generate outstanding cash flow. Further, we are set up extremely well to continue making Now we're happy to take your questions.

Speaker 3

And as we do every quarter, we're going to ask that you please limit your questions to 1 per person, so we can keep the call on schedule and can answer questions from many as many analysts as we can. Thanks. And now we will open it up for questions.

Operator

Thank you very much. As we're now going to start the question and answer session. Please unmute your phone and record your name clearly when prompted. Your name is needed to introduce your question. Our first question is from Omar Saad.

Speaker 4

Thanks for taking my question. Great job on the quarter. Ernie, if you take a look at the consumer, there's a macro lens through your business, maybe you could talk a little bit about whether you're still Seeing any resistance to the pricing that you've put through your business and through the products and also any trade down effects showing up whether inside your business or you're pulling consumers in from other more premium channels? Thanks.

Speaker 1

Thanks, Omar. Well, on the macro lens, with regard to the pricing, we are seeing very, very little resistance. And I would say our hit rate is in the 90 plus percent in terms of success on measuring it. In fact, at one point, I think Scott And as Skip talked about how our turns are essentially where they were in FY20, which is always a barometer. So we look at pre COVID And we get all the way down to a SKU level.

Speaker 1

So we look at categories, we look at departments and then we go to SKU level and obviously we 0 in on where we've adjusted the Retail. And because of what's happened around us where the retail has gone up so much significantly, We have really been so effective at it and hit extremely low resistance. So a lot more, I guess, opportunity as we move forward to keep doing it, because we have spotted, as you can imagine, we are also spotting Places where we've gone up are retail and we can go up again. So you have that dynamic, which is a little unusual because sometimes we do an intermediate price point raise And the goods whether it's apparel or hard lines have gone up a couple of price points because remember some of the inflationary hits have been more than just 2% or 3 So there are some items that have gone up 10% or 20% and we've only gone up the first price point. So All in all, Omar, definitely more opportunity there, if anything, in terms of pricing resistance.

Speaker 1

Scott?

Speaker 3

Yes. Hi, Omar, Scott. The other thing and we said this last quarter, I'll use Marmaxx as As the example, in terms of our sales and obviously we had some outperformance at Marmaxx, it's the consistency. So, asking on the trade down, not necessarily saw that we saw any, but it was just a Consistency across regions, across age of stores, across locations, urban, suburban, rural, across volume, almost any way you look at it, we saw That same level of consistency, most of our departments improved versus the Q2 as you would expect as The overall numbers went up and I think it goes back to what Ernie has been saying, just the strong execution of our buying and Planning out and our allocation teams.

Speaker 1

Yes. The interesting thing, Omar, that we're we try I tried to emphasize this in the script, It's the nature of one of our biggest, biggest strengths. We've talked about this before, we probably don't emphasize it enough, is the fact that we trade so broadly between the good, better and best and the brands and it makes it a little by the way to what Scott said, it makes it a little tougher to read is there Trade down or not because we are not going after a certain demographic. You know what I mean? We are trying to trade as broadly as we can.

Speaker 1

We are going after demos, All different income levels, age levels and we do not go after One sector of good, better or best goods. And so I think it's actually tough to see You know, are you taking from one trade down area when in fact, I think in some cases because we've had some great buys, I see a list every week At the good level, which means in some cases we're taking good sideways, not necessarily trade down from other retailers, If that makes sense. So, again, I think we're in the advantage of having a good, better, best wide offering Is going to continue to serve TJX well on taking market share.

Speaker 4

Thanks for the color. Congrats, Scott and John.

Operator

Our next question is from Lorraine Hutchinson. Thank you. Good morning. I wanted to dig in on inventory a little bit further. Are there any pockets of excess inventory, particularly in home?

Operator

And then what does your packaway capacity look like? If you were to purchase a large volume of spring product, does that preclude you from taking advantage of some of the great deals you're

Speaker 3

I'll actually prompt Ernie to actually talk first About the markdowns and overall how that's been?

Speaker 1

Yes. I think, Lorraine, so Great question. One of the things we do, I think that is also different than what some of our counterparts, not just an off price We take aggressive timely markdowns throughout the year. And with that, it becomes a even if we end up with, Well, I guess you'd call it liability of inventory, something you're kind of I think touching on there. We cleared those situations fast.

Speaker 1

And because we turn so fast, as you know, I think all of you know, we turn our home inventories extremely fast. We have a high standard on taking aggressive markdowns there probably as much as anywhere, if not more so. And so it never us taking advantage of other opportunities in the market because we're always addressing any issues we have in our stores or inventory very quickly. So it really limits any excess inventory situation that we would have anywhere within the box, within its online. And by the way, that applies To whether it's HomeGoods or Home Within Marmaxx or Home Within Winners in Canada or HomeSense in Europe, it applies To every brand, great question by the way, because if we manage that differently and this is where I think it goes to the talent that we have, The seasoning and other people have a similar model of business does not mean they execute it the same and take the markdowns as aggressively as we do.

Speaker 1

And I think, again, it's another advantage.

Speaker 3

Yes. So talking about just the markdowns this year, we keep talking about our markdowns Rate has been better all year than our fiscal 2020 levels, although our markdowns have been slightly higher than what we had anticipated, but they've been built into each You know, forecast that we give you and have largely been exactly where we thought they would end up. So no surprises There. Again, just to reiterate, we have adjusted most of our a lot of our inventory pickup has been due to Getting inventories a bit earlier than we expected as the supply chain improved quicker than what we had When we had ordered the goods and they just came in quicker, but we expect again our inventories to come in at the end of the year. We've adjusted all our open to buys.

Speaker 3

The receipts will obviously have a bit less receipts this year than last Q4. And really, so by Flushing that inventory down, we'll have both the inventory levels where you want and great cash flow in the Q4 compared to Both last year and even compared to fiscal 2020.

Speaker 5

Thank you.

Operator

Our next question is from Matthew Boss.

Speaker 6

Thanks. Congrats on a nice quarter and a tough backdrop.

Speaker 1

Thank you.

Speaker 6

So Ernie, could you speak to drivers of comp improvement as the quarter progressed? And notably, I think you cited sequential Acceleration in traffic. Maybe how you see Marmaxx position to take share in holiday? And then Scott, merchandise margin, if you exclude freight, It remains materially above 2019 levels. I guess maybe if you could just help walk through what are the structural improvements in the model that you see relative to pre pandemic?

Speaker 1

All right. So, Matt, let me go with the first couple and then Scott will jump in With regard to some of the margin aspects, yes, acceleration within the quarter total sales, but I think what you're getting at is On some of the categories, we mentioned that our and we're very pleased with this, our apparel in general and Marmaxx outpaced the store. So, that is an extremely healthy barometer for us. It also means that we are Going to be driving more traffic down the road when we do that, it's very healthy. Whenever we typically run some of our best market share gains, it's Because the whole store is participating and of course last year you had across the board not just in TJX, a home business that was over indexing in most businesses.

Speaker 1

But we are very happy, particularly happy with our apparel business in Marmaxx. So when you ask what any categories help driving it, yes, Apparel, ironically. And I don't think that is the same story with other retailers. I think you're going to hear more mixed reads as more results come out on the apparel business. Once again, I will give you the different why do I think our apparel Shines, and by the way, I think we are performing better in every division there, is because of the branded content, good, better, best brands.

Speaker 1

So our apparel is not non branded driven. It's brand driven and it's across good, better and best. And that applies to whether it's our ladies business or our men's or our kids business. We try to go after all three levels And really have a branded focus, not a private label focus. So I think that's really, really key.

Speaker 1

And I think that's why I look at the future you're asking, I think one of your questions there was about Marmaxx, how we position Open It Buy is in great shape. And we have opened it by in all the areas that are some of our harder driving sales, better sales performing areas right now. And I also look at the on order, because we can see some of that. Again, we buy close to need, but we still can see our Q1 on order, Because as we start buying and putting goods into those buckets, so to speak, the branded content based on what's been available in the market, This applies not just to apparel. This applies to accessories or to our hardlines areas, To our tech areas, the branded content is really going to be at a new level here going forward.

Speaker 1

And a lot of that is the nature of what's been happening in the place just yielding an amount of inventory across all of these brands that is beyond what we normally see. I'll let Scott now talk to the margin.

Speaker 3

Yes. I'm not the expert on actually why we're buying better, so I'll let Ernie say that.

Speaker 1

Yes, I didn't mean for you

Speaker 3

Yes. So, we'll have to look it on the technical side there. I think When we look back since the beginning of the year and what we did in the last in August is that, Our retails have largely, as we've said for the last couple of quarters, been unchanged. So it's not because we're raising retails anymore or any less than what we thought. It's really basically what we thought has happened.

Speaker 3

The cost increases have been have come through. They haven't Changing dramatically and our retails have raised up slightly above the cost, but we haven't done that any more than what we had thought. What has changed Over the last couple of quarters and when we changed our forecast last quarter is that We're buying better. The marketplace, as we said, was absolutely loaded, and we've actually been buying better. Some of this, And again, the freight is largely coming in where we want a little timing between the 3rd Q4.

Speaker 3

Markdowns Came in slightly higher, but again on our forecast, but it's largely we're actually buying better than what we thought, not a retail increase more than what we thought. So And again, we would expect the same thing in the 4th quarter to have a strong merchandise margin and With better overall mark on. So that's about all I have to say on merchandise margin.

Speaker 1

Yes, I'll just jump in, Matt. I think Scott is saying it, really it's been a 2 pronged Effort in terms of buying the goods better and retailing. The retailing continues, but I think the new news is that we are buying better based on the market environment Then I think we had even anticipated back a couple of months ago. What about that's where I think what anything you'd read about the availability on that Creating more inventory out there for models of business like us to take advantage of that. That part is turning out to be true.

Speaker 3

So Yes. And we've also been helped out as we thought it would because we saw the apparel getting better as we move through the back half of the year. And last year, when it was all about having a significantly higher home contribution, We're kind of back to where we were from the apparel home contribution at the end of this Q3 where we were back in fiscal 2020. So, it's almost been a 6%, 7% change in the apparel home contribution, which certainly has benefited us a bit on just from a mix point of view on the average retail.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question now is from Brooke Roach.

Speaker 5

Good morning and thank you so much for taking our question. Ernie, I wanted to follow-up on a few of the high level guardrails that you provided into next year and calendar 2024. As you contemplate that low single digit comp sales increase that you suggested next year, are there any puts and takes that we should be contemplating by major banner? And do you expect this to be led by a sequential increase in traffic? Or will this be a balanced traffic and ticket driver as Both have ongoing pricing strategy and better branded availability in the stores.

Speaker 1

Awesome. Those are Good high level questions. I think the first one on the single digit comp, first of all, hard for us to call today on how How much will be from traffic or ticket? We're being very conservative on our traffic expectations based on what's going on. But I think it's probably going to Combination, but it is a little early for us to kind of step out and make a call on that.

Speaker 1

And your first part of the question is I think how much does it vary by banner? And right now our initial thinking is it's in a pretty narrow bandwidth by banner. They're all going to be planned Fairly similarly within a couple of points, I would say. This is not different than this past year and the volatility of what's around us is making it a little challenging for us to kind of What's around us is making it a little challenging for us to kind of Scott and his team, myself with all the SEVPs who try to figure out And what's our best guess? But who could forecast some of the things that have happened even this year where sales are not where we had projected?

Speaker 1

Having said that, we've been able to execute in a different manner and pull off some things that I think strategically are going to benefit us on the long term. The flexibility of our model, but the team that we have executing that, we have executed. I believe the team has executed really well. So, again, I can't I have to be a little vague on that because we're not sure. The only thing I can tell you is right now our initial thinking on our banners is We'll be in a pretty narrow bandwidth.

Speaker 1

We'll all plan fairly similarly.

Speaker 5

Thank you.

Speaker 7

Welcome.

Operator

Our next question from Paul Lejuez.

Speaker 7

Thanks guys. Hey, I just want to

Speaker 8

go back to the The GON benefit that you spoke about, you said that it was helped in 3Q. I think it's been helping you, but maybe Scott, can you frame The benefit that you saw in 3Q versus prior quarter, is it also how you're thinking about mark on in 4Q relative to what you've been seeing. And then also just curious about the expenses, just the nature of the expenses that shifted Out of 3Q and into 4Q, what were those? If you could just give any detail there? Thanks.

Speaker 3

Yes. We're not going into the detail just due to the timing of multitude of items, some related to inventory Flow and the related costs and or expenses and how they get capitalized between 1 quarter and another. So That's really all to say on that. In terms of the margin, if you look at on a 3 year basis on our mark Similar levels of it's largely going to be driven by strong mark on whether it's on a 3 year basis or a 2 year basis And nothing really much more to add there. It can't break it down because there's Tens of thousands of items.

Speaker 3

So it's a combination of some retail and better buying and it's hard to parse out exactly What goes to which, but it's a combination of the both. Certainly, again, as we've talked about over the course of the last 6, 7 quarters having a slightly higher average retail helps on the expense lines, whether it's in the freight stores in D. C, and that's a good chunk of Some of the benefit we've been getting as well.

Speaker 8

Got it. If I could just pivot one on the direction, Ernie. Just there's some Just macro concerns out there over in Europe. I'm curious how you feel the business is positioned over there to take advantage of maybe consumers looking for value, maybe what you are seeing over there from a promotional perspective and competitive positioning of the business?

Speaker 1

Yes, Paul, great question. We talk about this all the time. And the environment there is at a different level of challenging From here, it's even more serious and you have the market drops by retailer that are even more significant than they are here. Our sales have been below our expectations there. But what we do is we look at our sales performance Against the retail market and we have been trending basically 500 to 1,000 basis points ahead of the competition there.

Speaker 1

So We don't like our the way the consumer is getting hit there and affecting us, but relatively speaking, we are actually gaining Significant market share there. So, our outlook there is over the next year or 2 to We continue to gain more market share and take advantage as things level off there. And we are staying extremely liquid And demanding the same type of looking for the same type of healthy turns and model execution that we do here, Being a little patient with the environment, we can't control the traffic. We can measure there and we do the footfall Going into our stores and that has been off, not the conversion of when they are in our store. So the good news is when the customer is in our store, They are very happy with the mix they find and they are buying at a conversion rate very similar to before.

Speaker 1

So that's not the issue. The issue is Football is off, but it's off less for us than it is for the competition.

Speaker 3

So Scott, I think that's it. I mean, The other thing is given the environment over there, it's even more difficult for most for many retailers. And it's certainly and Ernie can jump in after me, but we're certainly adding as many new vendors as we have in the past And probably getting our fair share of good, better and probably even more better and best over there in terms of the branded Quality. Absolutely. So I think that's a thing.

Speaker 3

And given the environment, we've talked about this before, we're still taking advantage You know, when of both relocation opportunities at good rates and obviously getting lower rates When we our leases come. So we're minimizing some of the costs and taking advantage of those aspects that we can.

Speaker 1

Yes, Paul, Scott was bringing up a good point there. The level of what you do have in a situation like this is there's some I was talking about the good, better, best, how we go after all three. We've had a disproportionate amount of better and best goods over there and from some brands and sizable deals that normally we wouldn't have Seen or opened some vendors, we wouldn't have opened this recently. So that all bodes well. That's our truly our best form of marketing and our best form Of capturing a customer for the long term.

Speaker 1

So again, I think we'll just stay patient and we'll weather and we have to execute the way we always do. And we will mitigate any margin drains or anything like that because we are keeping the business clean.

Speaker 8

Got it. Thank you, guys. Good luck.

Speaker 1

Thank you.

Operator

Our next question is from Mark Altschwager.

Speaker 9

Great. Thanks for taking my question. I guess first, for Scott, with respect to freight, just any further color on what you're seeing in terms of the inbound versus Trends in domestic freight expenses and how you're thinking about the recapture opportunity next year. And then Ernie, You've emphasized the

Speaker 10

gifting position quite a bit over the last few years. Could you talk about some of the learnings from recent years that you've incorporated into your holiday assortment and marketing

Speaker 3

Yes, we're certainly not going to Go into giving specific guidance at this point in time, but there's been largely No major changes to what we thought would happen at the back half of this year and consequently what we thought would Happened next year, but when we were giving the long range guidance out for 24% 25% going to that 10.6%, it contemplated Over the course of those 2 years, some freight benefit. And we still are assuming that due to whether it's Less demurrage or some of the ocean freight or some of the other factors and over 2 years switching some of it to more intermodal than we Currently have, we do see freight as a tailwind, but we're not going into the Details certainly give that more on the when we give more detailed guidance on the February call. But yes, we definitely It's built in. None of the factors have really changed from what we thought over the last. So yes, a tailwind over the next 2 years on that.

Speaker 3

And obviously, as I think we stated earlier, the freight will go down significantly from the 3rd quarter impact over last year or over 2020 versus the 4th quarter.

Speaker 1

Mark, so talking about our gifting position, yes, we've talked about that every year for the last few years. What's really neat, I think for us on what we've done in every banner and every geography we're in is we have become a Cooler, we've talked about our entertainment quotient and all that, but we have been cooler for gifting, because now we're hitting even younger audiences that are very comfortable buying gifts from us. I think the big thing that's happened over the last handful of years and we have really accelerated during COVID is, a, our in store experience from our and I mentioned this in the script, let's start with our store ops teams And our field organization really does an amazing job on setting up our stores for gift giving, Well beyond what we did 6 or 7 years ago. And I give them a lot of credit on how we present giftable tables and features and knowing where to put certain items toward the register And really catering to impulse gift items. And they do it with across the board with good, better and best goods.

Speaker 1

And they are just phenomenal at setting up the store and that's whether it's in a Marmaxx store or a HomeGoods store, a Sierra, You name it, Winners, T. K. Maxx, every division is all over the gift giving presentation and execution From a store level. Secondly, we are now more branded than ever. So if you think about if you want to give a gift, and this applies to Any demo on any age group, any income level, you ideally are going to lean toward giving a branded gift.

Speaker 1

It doesn't feel good to give A private label gift or a gift that's just kind of generic. While we become and then this holiday, we will be more branded than ever. I think that's going to bode well for our gift business as we get even closer to Christmas. And then the third aspect That we've tried to do every year in terms of gifting is a lot of gifting is done significant amount is done closer to Christmas every year. It moves back a little bit.

Speaker 1

And so we last year ran out of a little bit of steam right toward Christmas. So we think one of our 4th quarter opportunities this year is to have fresh Flowing branded goods that are gift oriented coming in later, which we are significantly going after this year, which I think is going to bode well for our Q4 sales, especially in the last week or 2 right before Christmas. I think that touches on why, again, 2 of those reasons are really why we've been doing better every year at it. This last one I think is really about a this year last year comparison. But I intend for us every year to continue to get better and grab more market Jared Holliday, even though years ago we were not thought of as a gift destination, I think now we're absolutely becoming that.

Speaker 1

So, thank you for the question, Mark.

Speaker 3

Thank you.

Operator

Our next question is from Michael Binetti.

Speaker 10

Congrats on a nice quarter. And Scott, I'll have to add my congrats to you here on the next steps. I think you said just a near term

Speaker 11

one, I think you said on

Speaker 10

the 3 year rate was increasing throughout the Q3, strong exit rate. The guidance looks like it's Taking in

Speaker 1

a little bit of a

Speaker 10

deceleration in that 3 year rate, maybe just a comment on what you're seeing on November versus if that's from your expectation Rest of the quarter, any source of conservatism that you want to hold back? And then, Scott, a little math on the consensus model. It looks like Expectations are for about a 2% to 3% comp in that combined U. S. Business in the first half next year.

Speaker 10

You looked at a number of things you're comfortable with Slash excited about it. I just want to make sure. Do you think that's reasonable?

Speaker 3

Yes. We haven't given any guidance on how we're breaking out getting to the 10.6% from next year or the year after. So We haven't we don't have any details to both share at this point or have on the breakout by quarter For next year. In terms of the Q4, the start to the Q4, your question that overall U. S.

Speaker 3

Comps have improved over The last day or so, but as there was some unseasonable weather early on, however, this has been factored into our increased Q4 U. S. Comp guidance. So, I guess, again, just all factored into what we're What we've contemplated.

Speaker 10

Makes sense. And maybe I could follow-up with one just a little bit further.

Speaker 1

Based on the buys

Speaker 11

that you commented on, I'm wondering how long you think you're going

Speaker 10

to have how long do you have visibility to having these great branded assortments? Do you have visibility via Pack away into this great good, better, best assortment of branded goods into fall of next year at this point?

Speaker 1

Yes, Michael. So the good, better, best has that Type of content has been there prior to the recent surge of availability and I would think that will continue To the level that it's at here, which is an unusually flooded market across Well more than we could ever buy. It's hard to have visibility really as to the long term. The only thing I would say, as I said in the script, is for 40 something years we've always had more availability out there than we can buy. So I don't see that changing.

Speaker 1

And I'll give you and even if it lean here's the other thing and I didn't get to mention this earlier. Even if the availability out there Comes down a little. One thing that has happened during COVID as we've seen over recently is for our merchants And our vendors, we have become even more important to them than ever before. So we always like to think we're the first Call, I think from a different perspective, we have just become without a doubt the most important for the branded market, I'm talking. We have become even more important as a relationship for them to liquidate their goods.

Speaker 1

And to know that if they get aggressive on Some of their cuts ahead, which again most of those cuts are imports that we're going to be there for them. So we I think they know that even more so now and our part our relationship They're better than ever.

Speaker 3

And Michael, the packaway, were you asking about the level of packaway?

Speaker 10

I'm just wondering if you already know that you've got good packaway for And goods that can be deployed in the fall season next year, if the content and the amount of branded goods that you're very excited about clearly today, You have in store today visibility in packaway today visibility that you'll be able to have those goods on the

Speaker 3

floor next fall. Yes. We're not at a high level We'll pack away at this point in time. We're probably even or slightly lower than what we would have been. So it's more on the come on what we Will or could buy for the rest of

Speaker 1

the year. I'll jump in there on that one. What could happen because of the availability is Typically, we're still right now as we're just in the middle of November, you're in this time, Michael, when actually you're using the goods, so you don't and we don't, You kind of wait for you buy through a lot of these current goods and as you go through it, as you get toward maybe December, you start saying, okay, There's goods in that category from that vendor left. I am now going to look at packing those away. My gut would say to me there's going to be more of that later Than there was prior.

Speaker 1

So as Scott said, we're not right now we don't see that. Just based on what's Out there, however, I would guess there will be more packaways coming out of this Christmas that we would pack away for next fall Than we did last year.

Speaker 10

Okay. Makes sense. Thanks a lot for all

Speaker 1

the detail guys. Yes.

Operator

Our next question from Chuck Grom.

Speaker 7

Hey, thanks a lot. Good morning. Congrats on a good quarter. Typically consumers trade down during tough economic times, but That's clearly not the case for you yet. And I guess I'm curious why you think that's different today.

Speaker 7

And I guess when you look ahead, When you think you may start to see that? Walmart has called it out, the dollar stores have started to call it out, but you and your peers have not. So just curious if you think it's on the come and I If you have any sense of when you think you might start to see it based on history in the business?

Speaker 1

Yes. Chuck, I think it's not I guess it's hard for us to read if it's trade down or if we are just getting it across the board. So that so I think what we were trying to say before is, We can't read if it's trade down because again part of that goes to we buy across the better we're buying we're trying to service almost every customer. So what happens is I think we get trade sideways. Right now we're getting market share from across the board.

Speaker 1

And so that's I wouldn't say we're not getting Some trade down. I would say that's just a piece out of many of the trade overs, I guess you would call it. It's too hard for us. We can't seem to read and Scott even mentioned, I think if you look region by region, where you would look at some of these stores that might be closing or might have created the trade down, we're not seeing any significant difference By region, which is telling us we're kind of getting a little everywhere. Scott?

Speaker 3

Yes. If you go back again, the history, 14, 15 years During the last recession, it was a little more pronounced at the higher income demographics where you were given the Stock market impact to people's 4MKs and overall was more pronounced in those demographics. So it's more noticeable. So again, I think Ernie Said it right. It's so across the board and so consistent, it just we just may be getting it more across than just from the top end.

Speaker 1

Thank you. I I think we have time for one more question.

Operator

Thank you very much. The final question for the day will be from Dana Telsey.

Speaker 11

Hi. Good morning, afternoon, everyone. Can you expand a little bit on the Hi, hi. Hi, can you and congratulations, John, and congratulations. Can you expand a little bit more on the HomeGoods business, exactly what you're seeing there and how you see that Path of improvement coming from and what you saw in home versus apparel.

Speaker 11

I mean, Ernie, you mentioned it, apparel over and goes back to the normalized index, But what should we be expecting from home and margin opportunity go forward? Thank you.

Speaker 1

Yes. So for sales and margin, Dan, that's where you're getting at going Our outlook would be that we start next year because we were up against enormous increases this year as was everybody. The good news is from what I've seen across the board, yes, we're dropping our home business, but not as much as some of the other retailers that So we feel again, we look at that barometer. We are hoping that next year we get to a home sales trend that's more back To, as I said earlier, back to those low single digit comps is what we would hope. Margin wise, you know, There should be some upside because of what's happening with freight becoming a bit of a tailwind.

Speaker 1

As you know, the home business was hit Significantly by freight more so than most of the other businesses. I do feel that we wouldn't have an out Pacing loan business, it probably starts to track towards the rest of our business. Again, tough to forecast with what's going on and all the volatility around us in the environment, But that's kind of our outlook right now. The beauty of our business is we play it hand to mouth close in and if we're not seeing that we'll adjust. We are bullish on our accessories and apparel business still moving forward because It looks like there's consistent opportunity as well as there's some newness there.

Speaker 1

And newness always bodes well on our business as far as Generating a reason to buy an impulse, which our business has so much built on impulse SKUs and categories. And So again, we just feel good across the board. Good question.

Speaker 11

Thank you.

Speaker 1

Thank you. And I think that was our last question for today. I'd like to thank you all for joining us today. We will be updating you again on our Q4 earnings call in February. So, thank you, everybody.

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