Zoetis Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
February 14, 2023

There are 14 speakers on the call.

Operator

Welcome to

Speaker 1

the Q4 and Full Year 2022 Financial Results Conference Call and Webcast for Zoetis. Hosting the call today is Steve Frank, Vice President of Investor Relations for Zoetis. The presentation materials and additional financial tables are currently posted on the Investor Relations section of zoetis.com. The presentation slides can be managed by you, the viewer, and will not be forwarded automatically. In addition, a replay of this call will be available approximately 2 hours after the conclusion of this call via dial in or the Investor Relations section of zoetis.com.

Speaker 1

Today at this time, all participants have been placed in a listen only mode and the floor will be open for your questions following the presentation. Today, your line will be muted when you complete your question. When posing your question, please pick up your handset to allow optimal sound quality. It is now my pleasure to turn the floor over to Steve Frank. Steve, you may begin.

Speaker 2

Today's conference call is open. Thank you, operator. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the Zoetis 4th quarter and full year 2022 earnings call. Today, I am joined today by Kristin Peck, our Chief Executive Officer and Whitney Joseph, our Chief Financial Officer. Before we begin, I'll remind you that the slides presented on this call are available on the Investor Relations section of our website and that our remarks today will include forward looking statements and that actual results could differ materially from those projections.

Speaker 2

Today's conference call will be recorded. For a list and description of certain factors that could cause results to differ, I refer you to the forward looking statements in today's press release today's conference call and our SEC filings, including but not limited to our annual report on Form 10 ks and our reports on Form 10 Q. Today will also include references to certain financial measures, which were not prepared in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles today are U. S. GAAP.

Speaker 2

A reconciliation of these non GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable U. S. GAAP measures is included in the financial tables that accompany our earnings press release and the company's 8 ks filing dated today, Tuesday, to February 14, 2023, we also cite operational results, which exclude the impact of foreign exchange. Today. With that, I will turn the call over to Kristin.

Speaker 3

Thank you, Steve, and welcome, everyone, to our Q4 and full year 2022 earnings call. Today, we reported strong full year results for 2022, in line with the high end of our guidance for November. Today, and thanks to our diverse portfolio, global scale and talented colleagues. Our 8% operational revenue growth for the year was driven by our innovative to companion animal portfolio, which grew 14% operationally, while our livestock portfolio declined 2% operationally, is primarily due to generic competition and market challenges, especially in the U. S.

Speaker 3

Thanks to our broad mobile scale and diversity, today, we delivered well balanced operational growth across our U. S. And international segments, which grew 7% and 9%, respectively. Today's conference call. For the year, we generated operational growth in all of our top 13 markets despite the economic challenges, continued COVID recovery and political uncertainty created by the war in Ukraine.

Speaker 3

Reflecting our long standing value proposition, we grew our adjusted net income is faster than sales for the year with an operational increase of 11% for the full year, and we use this performance and financial strength to continue investing in the R and D, manufacturing capacity and sales and marketing resources to support our future growth and pipeline. Today's conference call. As we begin 2023, we will stay adaptable to the evolving macroeconomic factors and geopolitical tensions around the world today and focus on executing our plans. We remain very confident in the fundamental and resilient global demand for animal care. Today's conference call.

Speaker 3

And most importantly, we are confident in Zoetis' ability to continue delivering solid, sustainable growth today as we resolve our prior supply constraints and build share of our market leading franchises. Looking ahead, today's conference call, we are committed to our track record of value creation and above market performance even in the face of today's economic uncertainty. Today's conference call. We are well positioned with our strategic priorities and capabilities to expand in large and growing product areas like parasiticides, dermatology products, today is the next question. We are guiding to a range of 6% to 8% today's call is now open to the call for questions.

Speaker 3

Operational growth for revenue in 2023 and adjusted net income growth in the range of 7% to 9% operationally, today, which reflects our increased investment plans for R and D and manufacturing to support growth. As the world leader in animal health, today's conference call is being recorded in the Q4 of 2018. We feel very positive about how our portfolio, today's call, and our press release will be available for our customers and shareholders. Today, Whitney will discuss more details about the 4Q results and full year 2023 guidance. But let me provide some additional perspectives on our business today and set the stage for some of our growth drivers for the year.

Speaker 3

First, we have remained the world leader in animal health over the last decade, to be recorded, outperforming the market and bringing groundbreaking innovation to veterinarians, producers and pet owners who care for animals. Today, we marked our 10 year anniversary as a public company on February 1, a decade which saw us bring more than 2,000 new products and lifecycle innovations to market, build a diverse portfolio featuring market leading franchises and 15 current blockbusters, today will be available on our website. Generate consistent above market revenue growth and deliver a total shareholder return of more than 500%, today, all while increasing our market cap from $16,000,000,000 in 2013 to about $75,000,000,000 today. Today's conference call. While we celebrate those accomplishments, I'm even more excited about where we can go in the next decade.

Speaker 3

And by the talented colleagues, today's call is being recorded. Our colleagues' purpose driven mindset and steady performance in the face of adversity give me confidence in the continued execution, innovation, growth and durability of our business. Today, we're focused on 5 key growth catalysts for the year. In dermatology, we see excellent growth opportunities today's

Operator

conference call is being recorded

Speaker 1

even after nearly a decade

Operator

of game changing innovation

Speaker 3

that began with the introduction of Apoquel in 2014 and has continued with the success of our first monoclonal antibody Cytopoint as well as recent life cycle innovations like apical chewable. We continue to see even more opportunity to grow and expand in this market. In pet parasuicide, the largest single product area in animal health, today, we continue to gain share and are now the 2nd largest in revenue for this category. With improved supply in 2023, today, we expect to continue expanding share in this market and supporting our diverse global portfolio, featuring Simparica Trio, our triple combination product. Today's conference call.

Speaker 3

In the area of pain, we are off to a great start with our 2 monoclonal antibodies for osteoarthritis pain, Librela for DOG, today, which became our latest blockbuster in 2022 and Valencia for cats. We are once again revolutionizing care in this category and seeing very positive early reaction to both products in their large markets as we continue to expand geographies and supply. Today, we will be conducting a review of our financial results conference call and webcast for Zoetis.

Operator

In terms of the U. S. Approval for Luverlo, we remain confident in receiving approval

Speaker 3

in the first half of twenty twenty three with a long term plan for late in the year. Today's conference call. In Diagnostics, we continue to generate solid above market growth in international markets of all of our go to market models in the U. S. And drive greater global adoption for Vetscan Imagis, our AI based diagnostics platform.

Speaker 3

And finally, as population growth and economic mobility to drive more demand for animal protein and pets, we see major opportunities in fast growing emerging markets outside the U. S. Where our portfolio is well suited to meet those evolving needs. Overall, our business continues to be weighted toward higher growth, today's call will be available on our Investor Relations website. And these will remain our growth drivers for the foreseeable future.

Speaker 3

Meanwhile, today, our Livestock portfolio will remain a valuable cash generating piece of our business as we continue to recover in the U. S. From generic competition today shows solid growth in emerging markets. As always, we will stay disciplined yet adaptable in our approach to the new market opportunities, today will be available on our Investor Relations website. And in conclusion, Zoetis remains well positioned in terms of our market leadership, today is the financial strength, investment strategies and diverse portfolio to deliver sustainable growth in 2023.

Speaker 3

Today, thank you. And I'll hand this off to Watney.

Speaker 4

Thank you, Kristen, and good morning, everyone. As Kristen mentioned, today, we had a strong year in 2022 with revenue of $8,100,000,000 and adjusted net income of $2,300,000,000 today will be posted on the call for the Q4 of 2019. Full year revenue grew 4% on a reported basis and 8% operationally, today's call will be recorded with adjusted net income increasing 3% on a reported basis and 11% operationally. Looking deeper into the operational growth for the year, today, we are pleased to announce that we are well positioned to deliver strong results. We are pleased to announce that the results of the Q1 of

Operator

2019 was the result

Speaker 4

of the Q1 of 2019. We are pleased to announce that the results today, including Simparica Trio and our monoclonal antibodies, Libuela and CELENIA and 2% from key dermatology products, partially offset by a decline of 1% from other in line products. Today's conference call. Revenue growth was broad based with positive operational growth in each of our top 13 markets, which make up approximately 85% of our total revenues, today, with international growing 9% operationally and the U. S.

Speaker 4

Growing 7%. Our growth was driven by continued demand for our innovative to our new products in our companion animal portfolio, which grew 14% operationally. Our companion animal portfolio now makes up 64% of our global revenues. Today's call was partially offset by our livestock business, which declined 2% operationally, primarily due to the generic competition, today will be a strong quarter for the quarter. We will continue to expect the results

Operator

of the company's results, and we will continue to see the results of the company's results.

Speaker 4

Performance in companion animal was driven by our small animal parasiticide portfolio, to 20% on an operational basis. Simparica Trio generated $744,000,000 in sales, growing 58% on an operational basis. Today, our Simparica franchise reached $1,000,000,000 in global revenue for the first time in 2022. Today's conference call. Our key dermatology products generated $1,300,000,000 in sales, posting strong growth of 17% operationally with double digit growth in both international and the U.

Speaker 4

S. Gdurum grew growth in our international markets was especially strong at 27% operationally. Today's

Operator

conference call.

Speaker 4

We continue to see solid growth in our monoclonal antibodies for osteoarthritis pain. As expected, sales of Fluella eclipsed the $100,000,000 mark on the year, marking Zoetis' 15th blockbuster product. We look forward to Libuela's expected launch in the U. S. In late 2023.

Speaker 4

Today, ZOLENCIA contributed $30,000,000 in sales in 2022, primarily from international markets with solid plane penetration in the U. S. After launch late in the year. Today's conference call. Our Companion Animal Diagnostics portfolio declined 2% operationally in the year, with declines in the U.

Speaker 4

S. Partially offset by growth internationally. Today's conference call. Our livestock business declined 2% on an operational basis. Our portfolio continues to be challenged by generic today, and Chief of Electronics to Jackson and cattle as well as Zoremix and poultry.

Speaker 4

We do expect these generic impacts to begin to moderate in 2023. Today's conference call. Additional declines were driven by supply challenges on certain livestock products as well as unfavorable market conditions, especially the U. S. Cattle and China swine markets.

Speaker 4

Today is being recorded. Moving on to our Q4 financial results, which was another strong quarter. We closed Q4 with revenue of $2,000,000,000 today, representing an increase of 4% on a reported basis and 9% on an operational basis. Adjusted net income of $539,000,000 is an increase of 14% on a reported basis and 27% operationally. Of the 9% operational revenue growth, today is from price and 6% from volume.

Speaker 4

Volume growth consisted of 3% from new products, which includes Simparica Trio as well as Luella and Cylencia 2% from key dermatology products, while other in line products grew 1%. Companion Animal Products grew 15% operationally, today, while our livestock portfolio was flat in the quarter. Simparica Truro was the largest contributor to growth in the quarter, to hosting global revenue of $171,000,000 representing operational growth of 39% for the quarter. We expect Compareco Trio to continue to grow the addressable market for flea, to heartworm globally and drive the conversion from collar and topical parasiticides to oral combination products. Today's call will provide additional runway for future expansion of the broader market and revenue growth for Chewyo, even once competing triple combination products enter the market.

Operator

Today are being recorded.

Speaker 4

Our key dermatology products, Apoquel and Cytopoint had solid global growth in the quarter, posting $347,000,000 of revenue, representing 14% operational growth against a robust prior year in which KeyBaron grew 23% operationally in the Q4 of 2021. Today, our monoclonal antibodies for osteoarthritis pain in dogs and cats continue to grow, posting $39,000,000 of revenue in the quarter, primarily in international markets. Meanwhile, sales of livestock products were flat on an operational basis in the quarter, today, with growth in fish and poultry, offset by the impact of generics and supply constraints on cattle and swine products. Today is now moving on to revenue growth by segment for the quarter. U.

Speaker 4

S. Revenue was $1,100,000,000 in the quarter, growing 7% with companion animal sales growing 12% and livestock sales declining by 6%. Today, focusing first on companion animal, we returned to double digit growth in the quarter as we resolved the majority of our supply issues from earlier in the year. Today's call will be recorded. In the U.

Speaker 4

S, veterinary practice revenue is growing approximately 6% and spending per visit remains strong again this quarter, increasing 10% despite a 4% decline in clinic visits in the quarter. The visit decline reflects comparison to the peak visit numbers in 2021, today is driven by pandemic after effects and increased adoption of pets as well as the impact of veterinary workforce challenges that have limited some clinic capacities. Today's call, absolute clinic visits remain above pre pandemic levels. We continue to see growth in the retail segment outpacing other channels. Today, in Q4, sales to our retail partners grew by 49%.

Speaker 4

Simparica Chugo continues to drive growth in the quarter with sales of $158,000,000 in the U. S. Growing 39%. With the supply constraints from earlier in the year largely resolved, we were able to leverage promotional efforts to drive growth and regain market share in the quarter. To Q Dermatology Products sales in the U.

Speaker 4

S. Were $239,000,000 for the quarter, growing 11%, with Apoquel and Cytopoint each growing double digits. Today, we expect to continue expansion of the market for the foreseeable future.

Operator

Today's call is being recorded. U.

Speaker 4

S. Livestock declined 6% in the quarter as expected with sales of cattle products impacted by supply restocking for certain products in the Q3 of 2022 as well as the impact of generic competition in

Operator

cattle and poultry. Today is being recorded.

Speaker 4

Moving on to our international segment, where revenue was flat on a reported basis and grew 12% operationally in the quarter. Today's conference call. International companion animal revenue grew 21% operationally and livestock grew 4% operationally. Today's conference call. Increased sales of companion animal products resulted from growth in our parasitocytes portfolio, our key dermatology products and our monoclonal antibodies for alleviation of osteoarthritis pain.

Speaker 4

Today's conference call. Our international small animal parasiticide portfolio had a very strong quarter. Growth was driven by our Revolution franchise, Which rebounded well from supply challenges, especially in China. Our key dermatology products contributed $108,000,000 to revenue grew 22% on an operational basis in the quarter with growth in CYTOPOINT across all key markets and continued double digit growth of Apoquel. Today, we continue to be pleased with the performance of our OIP portfolio with Liguela generating $26,000,000 and CELENCIA delivering $7,000,000 in 4th quarter sales internationally.

Speaker 4

Zoetis sales in the quarter dipped slightly below the prior quarter due to the removal of supply allocation in certain markets, today, which led to higher inventory levels at the end of Q3. We expect to see significant contribution to growth in 2023 coming from Lubela across our international segment. Today. Moving on to our International Livestock segment, which grew 4% operationally in the quarter. Today, our fish portfolio grew 25% operationally due to increased demand for vaccines in key salmon markets, including Norway and Chile.

Speaker 4

Today's call. Sales of poultry products grew due to increased demand for poultry 14. Growth was partially offset by swine sales, today, which declined due to supply constraints in certain vaccines across international. The swine decline was partially offset by growth in China, today is driven by a weak comparative quarter in the prior year and improved swine market conditions. Now moving on to the rest of the P and L for the quarter.

Speaker 4

Today's call is being recorded. Adjusted gross margins of 68.1 percent decreased 150 basis points on a reported basis compared to the prior year, today is now available on the call, resulting primarily from unfavorable foreign exchange impacts. Operationally gross margin declined 60 basis points, driven by higher inventory charges, as well as higher manufacturing and freight costs, which were partially offset by favorable price and mix. Today's conference call. Operationally, adjusted operating expenses decreased 6% with SG and A declining 9%, driven by lower compensation related expenses and lower advertising and promotion partially offset by higher freight and logistics related expenses.

Speaker 4

R and D expenses increased 10% operationally due to higher compensation costs and higher project spend. The adjusted effective tax rate for the quarter was 20.8%, an increase of 220 basis points, primarily due to lower net discrete tax benefits in the quarter with 30% operationally for the quarter. Capital expenditures in the 4th quarter were $171,000,000 today, in the quarter, we repurchased approximately $400,000,000 of Zoetis shares and returned over $500,000,000 to shareholders through a combination of share repurchases and dividends. For the year, we have repurchased almost $1,600,000,000 of Zoetis shares today, we returned over $2,200,000,000 to shareholders. In December, we announced a 15% annual dividend increase, continuing our commitment to grow our dividend at or faster than the growth in adjusted net income.

Speaker 4

Today will be available on the call.

Operator

Now moving on

Speaker 4

to our guidance for the full year 2023. Please note that guidance reflects foreign exchange rates as of late January. Today's conference call. We are expecting foreign exchange to have a minimal impact versus the prior year, with the full year impact neutral at revenue and slightly accretive at adjusted net income, the foreign exchange impact in the first half will be unfavorable versus prior year, particularly in the Q1. Today will be recorded in the second half of the year, foreign exchange is expected to be favorable based on the late January exchange rates.

Speaker 4

Today is being recorded. For 2023, we are projecting revenue between $8,575,000,000 $8,725,000,000 today, representing a range of 6% to 8% operational growth. Volume will be 1% to 2% at the low end of our guidance range today is expected to be a 3% to 4% at the high end. We again expect companion animal to be the primary growth driver in 2023 with the continued strength of our diverse parasiticide portfolio, the adoption of our monoclonal antibodies for OA pain and further expansion of our key dermatology products. Today's conference call.

Speaker 4

Despite the decline in vet clinic visits last year, industry fundamentals remain strong. Visits remain above pre COVID levels today and clinic revenue is at an all time high as the standard of care continues to increase. We anticipate modest livestock declines in 2023, today is driven by the generic impact on Jackson sales, particularly in the first half, as well as unfavorable market conditions in U. S. Cattle.

Speaker 4

Today, these declines will be partially offset by growth in poultry, driven by increased demand for poultry protein and new product launches, as well as fish. Today's conference call will be available on

Operator

the financial results. I'd like

Speaker 4

to touch upon the key assumptions that underpin today are expectations for revenue growth. For Companion Animal, we assume a true combination product will launch in the U. S. In the first half of twenty twenty three to compete against Simparica Trio. We expect this entrant will help Trio drive the conversion from topicals and collars to triple combination oral parasitocytes and still project significant growth for Trio.

Speaker 4

We do not expect competitive entrants in 2023 for our key dermatology products, Apoquel and Cytopoint. We expect another year of robust growth of our key derm portfolio coming from continued expansion of the dermatology market and price. We are excited about the continued growth in our OA franchise and plan to launch in several new markets next year. For the remainder of the P and L, adjusted cost of sales as a percentage of revenue is expected to be in the range of 29.5% to 30%, where favorable foreign exchange today will be posted on the call for the Q1 of 2019. Price increases

Operator

and product mix are partially

Speaker 4

offset by higher input costs. Adjusted SG and A expenses for the year are expected to be today is between $2,060,000,000 $2,100,000,000 with the increase from 2022 focused on supporting primary drivers of revenue growth.

Operator

Today's call is being recorded. Adjusted R

Speaker 4

and D expenses for 2023 is expected to be between $635,000,000 $660,000,000 today's call is being recorded. R and D spend can fluctuate year over year. This increased investment is reflective of both new projects as well as those advancing in our pipeline. Today, Zoetis is the leader in animal health because of the disruptive innovation, novel products and lifecycle enhancements we bring to the market. Today, this increase in R and D expenses reflects our commitment to ensuring our capital allocation prioritizes innovation.

Speaker 4

Today's call is being recorded. Adjusted interest and other income deductions are expected to be approximately $170,000,000 today's conference call. Our adjusted effective tax rate for 2023 is expected to be in the range of 20% to 21%. Today's call is being recorded. Adjusted net income is expected to be in the range of $2,490,000,000 to $2,540,000,000 is now open to the call, representing operational growth of 7% to 9%.

Speaker 4

Our guidance once again reflects a value proposition of growing revenue in line with today will be recorded in the Q4, faster than the market and growing adjusted net income faster than revenue. We expect adjusted diluted EPS to be in the range of $5.34 to $5.44 and reported diluted EPS to be in the range of $5.03

Operator

today will be recorded to $5.14 We

Speaker 4

are anticipating capital expenditures in 2023 to increase to $950,000,000 to $1,000,000,000 today, we continue to make investments to support our future growth, including manufacturing capacity for our monoclonal antibodies as well as oral solid dosage. Today is being recorded. Finally, while Zoetis and the animal health industry remain resilient in the face of economic headwinds, today, our 2023 guidance range is reflective of uncertain macroeconomic conditions and the impact of veterinary clinic labor challenges. Today's conference call. While guidance represents our expectations for the full year, Q1 revenue is expected to be below the low end of the operational growth rate in our full year guidance is due to a variety of reasons.

Speaker 4

First, Q1 2022 was a strong comparable quarter as we saw robust growth with limited impact from event planning labor constraints, as well as minimal disruption from our diagnostics field force model change, which began in Q2. Today's conference call. Additionally, in the quarter, we expect to see lingering impacts of the latest COVID wave in China. Today, the return of supply on certain products, including Simparica Trio and subsequent channel restocking, as well as promotions to regain share in Q4 2022 to modestly increase inventory levels in the channel in the short term. Today, we expect a modest decline in adjusted net income versus the prior year as a result of the timing of our 2022 Field Force expansion in the U.

Speaker 4

S, which did not start until Q2, as well as the R and D investment noted earlier, which is also off a low base in Q1 2022. Today. Now to summarize, 2022 was another strong year. Despite some challenges, we significantly outperformed the market continues to take share, all while growing the bottom line faster than the top line. As we begin 2023, today, we once again expect to grow faster than the market, driven by the strength of our innovative portfolio, our ability to successfully launch new products today will be recorded and expand existing markets and our confidence in the end market dynamics for the spaces we compete in.

Speaker 4

Today. Now, I'll hand things over to the operator to open the line for your questions. Operator?

Speaker 1

At this time, we will open the floor for questions. We'll take our first question from Michael Ryskin from Bank of America.

Speaker 4

Great. Thanks for taking

Speaker 5

the question and congrats on the quarter guys. I'm going to throw in a couple just real quick. First, would love to get your latest thoughts on NexGuard Plus, the BI Simparica triple combo now that it's been unveiled at VMX. Today is just what are your expectations for Simparica Trio growth this year, if you could give us a ballpark for that? And then second, I want to talk about R and D spend In 2023, it seems to have jumped quite a lot year over year, and that's a big part of why operating margins aren't expanding as much as we're used to.

Speaker 5

Any specific programs you want to highlight and anything you can say in terms of when that R and D spend will translate into future launch, is this something that's sort of in the regulatory phase or late clinical phase? Just give us a sense of where the extra $100,000,000 year over year is going? Thanks.

Speaker 3

Sure. Thanks, Mike. I'll take those and let's see if Whitney has anything to add. The first on Trio, obviously, we had a phenomenal year with 58% growth. Today is Really proud of that.

Speaker 3

Obviously, we got back in clinics after some of the supply problems and we're fully back there. We've got 90% penetration with an 80% reorder rate and are now the number 2 fleet to heartworm there. We are expecting competition from Nexstar Plus sometime in the first half. We actually, as I'm sure you know, don't know exactly when that will be. But we continue to expect the market to expand and we continue to expect to compare to Trio to be growing on the year, I mean, albeit probably not at 58%, but we expect to have a very strong year.

Speaker 3

I think what you're going to see is, really Moving more customers from collars and topicals into what is a best in class fleet to heartworm combined oral products. So We expect to continue to go through this as we've continued to say. We don't have any more information on the exact timing there, but we're going to be aggressive. As you've seen us in Q4 and Q1, Really investing behind this brand, doing DTC, etcetera. So we expect strong growth there continuing even with a new entrant.

Speaker 3

Today. And when you think about R and D spend, and I'll start and I'll see if Watney wants to build there. We've gotten questions often from you and from a lot of our investors. Why don't you spend more in R and D or if you had a program, would you invest in it? And I think what we're demonstrating is we see a very strong pipeline here.

Speaker 3

Today, these incremental investments to your question are certainly the bigger ones are in late stage development going into development that cost that, but also some great new technologies in the research side as well. So it's brought across the portfolio. It is a significant investment And hopefully it's assigned to all of you of our confidence in our pipeline, and the strength of our R and D engine and our willingness to invest in that For the short and the long term across there, we see obviously really big platforms there in parasiticides continuing to invest there in dermatology and across our monoclonal antibody franchise, certainly looking at long acting as we've talked about, But also new disease areas. So I don't know if I missed anything. Whitney, do you want anything?

Speaker 4

No. Look, I would just add a couple of points going back to to Trio, we expect, as Kristen said, for Trio to grow significantly in the year, although as we now are well into our 3rd year with the product, we wouldn't expect to continue to grow at 58%, which is what it did in 2022. Now the timing of our supply recovery in 2022 And the fact that as we see competition come in, it may drive some promotional activities Mike drives some variability in terms of quarter to quarter in terms of where the growth is, but for the total year, we expect significant growth on Trio. And then on the R and D spend, it's our practice that we don't to dictate what the investment in R and D is going to be, we let the pipeline dictate it. And so as we see programs Either coming into research or coming out of research into development or into late development as those programs require Spending and we do a full ROI spec etcetera on them, we go ahead and fund those.

Speaker 4

And so we're very pleased to see that the pipeline is demanding this level of investment today, we'll still be able to deliver faster growth at AMI in revenue based on our guide of 68 at revenue and 7 to 9 at adjusted net income.

Operator

Today, we will now begin the question and answer session.

Speaker 1

Our next question comes from Jon Block from Stifel.

Speaker 6

Great. Thanks guys and good morning. Today is Wendy, the 4Q GM of 68.1 was a little bit below us for the quarter, but the 2023 guidance at 70 to 70.5 was is certainly solid. So maybe if you can just talk to the drivers for 2023 gross margin of those the supply chain easing, Maybe a little bit about the cadence. And then maybe just sort of as a tack on to that or the second question.

Speaker 6

In 2022, it was sort of a tale of 2 halves for atopic derm. 1H was operational around 20%, 2H Operational, I think, was closer to 10%. I think you guys alluded to solid growth in 2023, but do you want to just frame that for us? Is it a continued today's conference call. Deceleration of atopic derm into 23 with no competition, because I think you clarified that.

Speaker 6

Or can we expect some level of stabilization, call it in that to high single, low double digit range for the atopic derm franchise. Thanks guys.

Speaker 4

Yes. So I'll start and see if Kristen would add anything here. Today. Let's start with gross margins. Look, if you look at the year, we were able to expand margins on the year.

Speaker 4

Today. And certainly, as we explained in the prepared commentary, we saw FX come in to the tune of about 80 basis point headwind against gross to margin in the 4th quarter and certainly we've seen input costs as well as some manufacturing costs impact the gross margin picture that you saw in the 4th quarter. But given where OpEx came in, you saw substantial growth at ANI versus revenue, where revenue came in at 9% on the quarter, ANI coming in 27% growth in the quarter. I think as we go into 2023, given the timing of our price increases, which started at the beginning of the year, today. As you know, certainly, we've seen some inflation in input costs coming out of 2022.

Speaker 4

But we go into 2020, price increases that start to Change that as we go into 2023, which is why we give guidance where we will see about 40 basis point margin gross margin expansion on the year. And obviously, a point, if you look at the midpoint of our guidance on growth higher at ANI versus the top line is what I would say today on the margin front. Certainly, as you look at continued growth of companion animal outpacing the growth of livestock in the business, That mix will be favorable to us in addition to what I already covered from a price perspective. I think if you look at atopic derm, we delivered $1,300,000,000 today, we are very pleased with

Operator

the progress we made in 2020.

Speaker 4

That's a 17% increase and we are almost at 10 years since Apoquel was launched and just amazing to We continue to expand the market and we believe there's more room to expand, not only in the U. S. Where we grew 12% in 2022, But particularly in international markets, it takes longer to get to peak sales levels and we delivered 27% growth in international. I think we'll continue to see really solid growth across the business, we expect double digit growth in 2023. So it may not be at the level that you've seen in 2021 where we grew I think about 23% 17% in 2022, but we continue to see room to continue to expand the derm market here.

Speaker 1

Today, our next question comes from Erin Wright from Morgan Stanley.

Speaker 7

Great. Thanks. So two questions here. 1, how much did the lingering supply chain issues impact Simparica Trio sales in the quarter, if at all? Today, and how much did the stocking benefit offset that in the Q4?

Speaker 7

And did you benefit across other product times in terms of distributor stocking that we should be aware of in terms of that Q1 cadence as well. And just if you could talk a little bit more, and maybe you touched is with the gross margin dynamic, but in terms of overall price, you are taking across the 2 core species segments here. And then my second question is on Librella. Can you give us an update on the U. S.

Speaker 7

Librella approval? And what does guidance assume in terms of U. S. Contribution from Librell, is that material in 2023? Thanks.

Speaker 4

Today. Yes. So let me first touch on your questions around supply and its Trio as well as other products. As we said in the Q3 call, While we had some outages in supply during the year, particularly in Q3, competitors actually took advantage of that and ran promotions. And we certainly intended to run promotions as we recovered on supply, which we did in the Q4.

Speaker 4

And so I think the timing of our supply recovery, whether it's for Trio in the U. S. To the Q4 for Revolution in China will drive some stocking levels certainly as we enter into 2023, which we discussed. But I think typically you'll see some increase in inventory levels from Q3 to Q4 anyway because distributors are anticipating our price increases And they tend to drive a little bit of that. So I would say, when I look at across other products, it's probably more in the range of typical increase that you would see.

Speaker 4

But if you look at Trio, we're probably if I had to bracket it in terms of the impact on Trio, if you back out what would typically be an increase from Q3 to Q4 anyway. So the to the Q4, I'd put somewhere in the $25,000,000 to $30,000,000 range. So it's not a significant number for us. And certainly, as we've discussed already, we factor that into our guidance today, we expect significant growth from Trio on the year. With respect to Librella, look, we continue to expect and are very confident that we will see an approval in the first half of the year.

Speaker 4

Our plans have not changed. We continue to plan to have an early experience program run on the program once we've gotten approval and we have the label set etcetera and that will transition into a launch sometime late in the year.

Speaker 3

And our practice, just to build on that, our practice on that is that we do not include in our guidance or our budgets if we're expecting a late launch in the year. We've always done that Those who have covered us for a while. So, Librella is not in our current guidance that we provided. We will update the guidance since we have a better Obviously, this is a big product and when it launches, it could have a big impact. So whether or not you have 1 month, 3 months, etcetera, 4 months, It makes a big difference.

Speaker 3

So we'll update guidance once we have a better sense of that approval. So to clarify your second question, Librella is not in the guidance that we provided. We fully do expect to have it, but we'll update our guidance once we have a better sense of what the exact timing is.

Speaker 4

Yes. And we'll give a better bracket in terms of what We expect the impact to be depending on the timing of the launch and what we see through the EEP program, etcetera.

Speaker 1

Our next question comes from Louise Chen from Cantor. Today. Hi, thanks for taking my question here. So I wanted to see if you could give more color on how you're investing in supply to meet the growing demand for your products? And when do you actually expect to complete or read your objectives here?

Speaker 1

Thank

Operator

you. Today.

Speaker 4

Yes, I'll take that and see if Kristen will add on anything. We are investing in a number of areas when it comes to our supply network. I'll I'll put a couple of categories. I'd say in the short near term, we have investments clearly in inventory to help absorb any shocks that come through the supply chain. Today, we're making investments in our demand planning processes and tools to give us better visibility, etcetera, as well as redundancies that we're building in certain aspects of our inputs coming into our manufacturing process.

Speaker 4

Longer term, as you may have listened on the prepared commentary, we're making significant capital investments across our network in the U. S. To support our monoclonal antibodies, both for products that have already been approved and are launching And what we have in our pipeline as well from a map perspective, it is a platform that we continue to innovate on. And then our all solid dose as well, today, whether it's parasiticide, dermics, especially in various aspects, we are making investments throughout the network. For those who are making investments to support to our vector vaccine manufacturing, for example, as well for livestock and so on.

Speaker 4

So we are making investments across the organization, investments in tech and digital to leverage data, Again, to give us better visibility as well for the long term to support our long term growth aspirations.

Speaker 3

The only thing I'd build on there, Louise, is I mean, if you look at the CapEx number that Whitney was talking about in his prepared remarks of $950,000,000,000 to $1,000,000,000 that is clearly the highest CapEx that we've had. But I also you should look also at what we said about R and D. And if you look at significant new investments in R and D, those are going to be products that we're going to have to be able to manufacture in a few years. So what you're seeing is today, the commensurate investment in our manufacturing capabilities to be able to launch those products in really critical platforms across the globe. We are very confident in where our pipeline is and we're going to invest in our manufacturing capacity to deliver on those products over the medium to long term.

Speaker 1

Today, our next question comes from Nathan Rich from Goldman Sachs.

Speaker 8

Hi, good morning. Thanks for the questions. The first one on Trio, I'd be curious just to get a sense of what kind of factors you're watching, as you think about the impact that competition could have and magnitudes that will kind of push you to the higher or lower end of your range for competition. And are you anticipating any changes to pricing or your promotional cadence when competition enters? And then my second question on Draxin.

Speaker 8

Today is just how much of a drag will that continue to be in 2023? I think you've previously said that you'll start to cycle the 2nd year of competitive entry in the Q1. I think there's been some more recent price changes. So just curious what we should expect, in terms of the impact on the livestock business this year?

Speaker 3

Today. Sure, Nate. I'll take the first question and I'll let Whitney take your second question on Draxin. Look, we've been expecting competition for a long time on Trio, I would say. So today.

Speaker 3

I would say we are well prepared for what that is. We've been investing heavily obviously behind DTC, really investing with our to customers and with pet owners directly, to make sure that when competition enters that we have very pleased customers. And a few things I'll point to there. Obviously, it's our direct to consumer advertising. I would say our broad portfolio and our if you look at our relationship with corporate accounts, we're very strong with corporate accounts.

Speaker 3

We are their preferred product. So I think that provides some resiliency. But I'd also say auto ship remains a real strength. This is not a sector where people often switch unless there's a really good reason. So new dogs, they'll make a choice, but they're not I think customers are already on Product are not going to be that inspired to change.

Speaker 3

And if you look at the dynamics certainly in the U. S. Around retail, it grew 43% on the year. It's now about 11% of our U. S.

Speaker 3

Business. And I highlight that because the more that insulates us from potential new entrants coming and we to expect NexGard Plus, but I'm sure there'll be others over the next 1 to 2 years that enter as well. So we're really investing in insulating ourselves from that impact by investing in pet owner loyalty programs, DTC, a broad portfolio with innovation with our customers wanting to do, corporate accounts, I'd also underscore and then lastly, auto ship and strong relationships with the retail sector. So do you want to take the second question on Jackson?

Speaker 4

Yes, absolutely. Look, as we said from the very beginning, we were expecting Jackson to have about 20% decline in the 1st year of generic competition and then another 20% in the 2nd year. The 1st year was slightly better Then our expectations coming in somewhere around 16% decline, but the 2nd year was a little bit worse. So I think we're sort of in that ballpark. I think 2nd year was about 25%.

Speaker 4

So we're at a level now that once we lap, I would say, the 2nd year, which would be through the Q1 of 'twenty three, which is why in the prepared commentary, we said, particularly in the Q1, I think we're at a low enough level, it won't be as meaningful as an impact on us. And I think the drag on our livestock business won't be as significant. So I would still expect Some pressure on livestock given where U. S. Cattle, for example, as a market is.

Speaker 4

We're watching swine, particularly in China and the impact it has Across other regions to determine where we end up lending, but we think livestock will be slightly down year on year, Maybe marginally better than we than you saw in 2023 where livestock was down 2%.

Speaker 1

Today, our next question comes from David Westenberg from Piper Sandler.

Speaker 9

Hi. Thank you for taking the question. So I want to kind of continue with some of the Trio is Dynamics. Can you talk about maybe if you got any word on in terms of what the label might look like on the competitive launch? And Can you give a little bit more color?

Speaker 9

I think you said in the prepared remarks that you expected to come from Collarsen Topical. What are you kind of seeing in the marketplace that suggests that, That as opposed to other maybe legacy oral parasiticides? And then kind of the second question here is On the increase in R and D spending, are you going to continue to give out some of the what you have in pipeline about I think you guys usually give out 6 months in advance to Wall Street. Is that kind of still the expectation when you talk about pipeline? And Thank you very much.

Speaker 3

Hi, Dave. I'll start on Trio and then maybe Whitney can clarify because I if there's anything I'm missing and then I'll let Whitney take the R and D question as well. Look, we don't have any clear signs of what the label of competition will be. We're very confident in our current label. We don't think it has any holes.

Speaker 3

I've got to tell you we're at 100% heartworm protection. So I'm not really sure where you're going to hit us on that. We've also been out on the market now, since 2020 with this, which means we have a very strong set of safety data as well. So I'm sure as always, competition will enter and they'll try to find any angle they can. But we don't really think there's any holes in our label right now that we're concerned about, we're in puppies.

Speaker 3

If you look back to Simparica and the second part of your question, look, yes, they will move from single agents. I think they will. Single agents from just flea tick or just heartworm products, I think we'll move into the combination label for sure. But we're not expecting pricing to be a is a big factor initially and really that has to do with who's entering, because if they don't enter the market similarly priced or higher than their to current 2 products, they're going to cannibalize themselves. So I think really the power of who's entering does not lead us to believe that price is going to be a major factor in who enters.

Speaker 3

I mean, obviously, we'll adapt to whatever comes, whatever label they have, but we remain very confident in our label, in our relationships and in our data today. But do you want to take the second question on R and D, Rodney?

Speaker 4

Yes. Look, it's not a small addition I would do to Trio is we do get to 100% heartworm after the first dose. So and with the product being in the market almost 3 years and satisfaction levels being very high and penetration across clinics, etcetera, we're very confident upon our position As competition enters into the space. On R and D, look, I think unlike human health, in animal health, there's not as much visibility as given today with respect to what's being specifically worked in the pipeline, we see that as a competitive advantage for us given our track record and how we continue to drive today is the first time we have a discussion of innovation in the spaces that we enter. And so we won't necessarily be changing that significantly here in terms of what we have in here, but we have talked about Various aspects of unmet needs, that if you were to ask, veterinary practitioners what are the top 5 or 10 unmet needs that they have, I think you would imagine that we're working on all of those areas.

Speaker 1

Today, our next question comes from Chris Schott from JPMorgan.

Speaker 10

Great. Thanks so much. I just had a question on the overall volume comments you made, I think it was 1% to 2% volume growth at the low end versus 3% to 4% at the high end. Can you just elaborate on the dynamics there? So How does that look at for companion versus livestock?

Speaker 10

And maybe as part of that, what's implied in terms of vet to the call, is that even a relevant swing factor as you think of the overall outlook for the business? Thank you.

Speaker 4

Yes. So look, I think if you look at our 2020 to results, the net price contribution is about 3%. Now if you take Draxin out, that number is about 4% and companion animal would be at the Higher number here with certain products substantially above that.

Operator

And

Speaker 4

we're very pleased to be able to take price, which typically is about 2% to 3% And here in 2022 is about double what we would normally do and we still saw about 5% volume growth in 2022. So as we look at 2023, I think you'd see price with Draxin impact being less than it was in 2022 in particular, plus how we're going into pricing certain products, I think you can expect a higher price contribution On the year, the timing of that in terms of where customers may have bought ahead of the price increases and so on. So you might see a little bit of a lag in terms of when you see today's conference call, the price picture play out, but you'd see at the low end of our range, price is a bigger contributor, but at the upper end, it's called additional volume. In terms of where we see vet clinic traffic, certainly we've seen vet visits come down versus the peak that we saw in 2021, in the Q4, visits were down about 4%, but revenue per visit was up 10% and total revenue was up 6% on the quarter, again continuing the trends that we see as being sustainable, Which is pet owners willing to pay for innovation and seeing sustainably higher revenue for pet clients.

Speaker 4

Now we're still very early in 2023, but as we look at data in January, We are seeing some increases in vet visits. Again, as we expected, we've been running above pre pandemic levels. So even in Q4 where visits were down 4%, they were actually still 2% above Q4 2019. And so we've been saying that that's today, the elements to continue to watch, I think 1 month is a little bit early to call it, but we are expecting visits to be flat to up in 2023, and we're starting to see some signals of that earlier in the year.

Speaker 1

Today, our next question comes from Brandon Vasquez from William Blair.

Speaker 11

Hi, everyone. Thanks for taking the question. My first is just on the diagnostic side. You guys have, I believe, talked about this before, but maybe can you refresh us on where you are on some of the commercial changes? I think it was in the U.

Speaker 11

S, where those are and what that Mean for growth and potentially accelerating that business into 23 plus. And the other is just on China. You guys had a nice rebound there. I think you mentioned a little bit today's call is being recorded in the market, but maybe tempered that a little bit with COVID headwinds. So curious how those 2 shake out, maybe a month and a half into this Q1?

Speaker 11

Today.

Speaker 3

Sure, Brendan. I'll start and let Whitney build on both of them. So in diagnostics, first of all, just you know, Whetty and I are joining you from our sales meeting actually out in Denver and I would say the energy in our diagnostics team is just amazing. So we'll as Wendy Wendy mentioned in his prepared remarks, Q1, we didn't have them on board until Q2 of 2022. So what we are expecting as we look to 2022 as we get into the sort of middles of the year and the end of the year is really a return to at least market growth in the U.

Speaker 3

S, if not faster. We continue to see very strong growth in international as you saw from last year, and we expect that to continue into the year. So we're really excited about the new field force, having them on the ground, having them fully up to speed. Whitney and I spent a lot of time with them yesterday. So I would say super optimistic Overall in diagnostics, returning to growth across the board, certainly the images platform and investments there.

Speaker 3

And then I'll start on China and let's see what Whitney has to build on it. We did see overall strong growth in the year of 11%. And we're optimistic so far year to date in to the return in China, we've seen both on the companion animal side, a really strong rebound there as we look into certainly for us, today, our year is both December January. December, obviously, with the number of people homesick there was a little weaker, but we're seeing really strong rebound in January. And we're looking, I think had a strong year for us in China.

Speaker 3

Also as you look at livestock, with opening up China, more return to eating out, to travel, to tourism, will not just be good for China, to be honest with you. It could be good for livestock across the globe. So it's one to watch. Obviously, there's huge uncertainty around China, not to mention to Geopolitical tensions and potential UFOs these days, but we stand really confident in where we think China will be for the year, But it remains a big risk both for China as well as for livestock across the board because I think a lot of if China returns, they'll see China buying a lot of pork, poultry, to be beef, etcetera, from Brazil, Europe, the U. S.

Speaker 3

There. But Ron, if you want to build anything either on the diagnostic question or China, Whitney?

Speaker 4

Look, it's great to be here in Denver with a large number of our colleagues on Valentine's Day. But look, I think China, today, we've been very pleased to see how China ended the year high double digit growth on the quarter. My comments around supply was just The timing of recovery, particularly on Revolution Plus in that market that might create some dynamics on quarter to quarter. But We are expecting really solid growth out of China this year. I think the Q1 though given the timing of today.

Speaker 4

The COVID waves, just as a reminder, our international segment closes in at the end of November, which means today. The quarter really started in December for them and so a lot of that occurred in the Q1 and we're seeing that having an impact, but we do see a rebound. As Kristen said, it has implications for other markets in terms of exports into China, but we are expecting a really solid rebound there.

Speaker 1

Today. Our next question comes from Elliot Wilbur from Raymond James.

Speaker 12

Thanks. Good morning. Today. Wanted to go back to some of your early commentary around growth expectations for the key derm franchise and just specifically thinking about the key levers in 2023, Kristen, I wonder if you can maybe just to talk about, especially given the high level of penetration of Apoqua in the U. S, what the key levers there are Going forward, whether it be price, new market entry, geographic expansion or just today's conference call is now open.

Speaker 12

Outperformance by Cytopoint relative to Apoquel. And then for Whitney, just I don't know if you said this in your prepared commentary or not. I didn't catch it if you did. But within gross margin guidance, could you just talk maybe about The inflationary headwinds that are sort of embedded in your guidance for this year? Thanks.

Speaker 3

Today. Sure. I'd say a few things on derm, both domestically as well as globally. We will be looking to expand. And I think as Whitney said in his prepared remarks, reaching peak sales in some of these markets takes a little bit longer outside of the U.

Speaker 3

S. So we're continuing to see very strong growth in dermatology, Both in Apoquel and Cytopoint as well as lifecycle innovation remains really important for us here. The movement to Apoquel Chewable, It's been a real, it's been growing much faster than we expected and the conversion there remains very, very strong. So I think it's both you're going to see growth in volume, certainly potentially a little more globally, but beyond Apoquel, I mean, I think Cytopoint, vets really love it and so do customers. It's 100% compliance.

Speaker 3

So I think if you look at the overall franchise Apoquel, Cytopoint, Apoquel, Chewable, we'll probably see greater growth outside the U. S. So we're both looking at volume. We've taken price consistently here, and certainly 2023 will be no different here. So I think you'll see growth from both price And from volume, you'll see chewable really building on it.

Speaker 3

I think you'll see a real uptick in Cytopoint. Again, we're back to absolute full supply. We, as you know, last supply challenges we had, but we're back full speed. So we're also really investing. Another big growth driver here will be direct to consumer advertising today is in international.

Speaker 3

So, we are going to do unbranded DTC as we started last year. And we really even in the U. S, you still have 6,000,000 itchy dogs that are currently undiagnosed and not treated. So, we really continue to see growth here, as we said, double digit, as Whitney mentioned earlier.

Speaker 4

Elements, we've been appropriately prudent in how we've laid out this guidance in the range that we've given today. But specifically on gross margins, if you look at inflation, as we're preparing to come into the year, we are certainly accounting for significant inflationary pressure on some of our input costs, energy, Europe, etcetera. But as we've entered the year, I think they're a little bit better than what we anticipated coming into the year, but still significant inflation that's baked into What we have here, which obviously are more than offset by our mix and our price, which is why you see some modest gross margin improvement year on year as we go through the year, but we have factored in fairly significant inflationary pressure in the gross margin figures that we gave.

Speaker 1

Is now open. And our last question comes from Balaji Prasad from Barclays.

Speaker 13

Hi. This is Mikaela on for Balaji. Thanks for taking our questions. Just 2 from me. I guess, could you first just provide some additional color on business development priorities for the year?

Speaker 13

And then building upon an earlier question, what are your volume expectations from new pet additions for the year? Thank you.

Speaker 4

Today. Yes. So look, when you look at our capital allocation priorities, certainly investing in the business is the first today's conference call. And clearly, we are poised to significantly invest in the areas of R and D as well as across our supply chain and manufacturing. Today, you saw the significant increase in R and D spend anticipated for 2023 versus 2022 and our CapEx numbers are going to be in the range of $950,000,000 to $1,000,000,000 on the year.

Speaker 4

Certainly, as you look at our strategic priorities, they align with where we look at from a BD perspective in terms of where there might be opportunities to accelerate some of those execution on our strategies. And today. They span across our current slate of businesses, including some of the R and D areas in terms of extraordinary innovation BD is one of those areas, as you know, is hard to predict in terms of exact timing and so on, but it is an important lever that's, I would say, today and after investing in the business. And then thirdly, as you saw in 2022, we are returning capital to shareholders to the tune of $2,200,000,000 in total between share buybacks and dividends.

Operator

I think

Speaker 4

you had a question in terms of sorry, I think you had a question in terms of new pets. Look, If you look at the growth in the industry over the last 2 decades, it's been about 5% to 6%. The way I look at it, vet visits, In essence, as you see, tech population growth and so on, it would be reflective in that. They've accounted for about 1% of that growth historically. So the bigger element Growth here is really pet owners' willingness to spend for innovation and you see that reflected in the spend per visit Figures that are far more in terms of the impact on growth historically and we anticipate that continuing.

Speaker 4

So as we sit here today, I wouldn't say new pet to increase is a major factor into what we're looking at. It's our innovation and pet owners' willingness to pay And the demographics of pet ownership with Gen Z and millennials willing to spend more on pet health and prioritizing those, as well as higher income households that are bringing pets Those are the factors that we watch that contribute to growth.

Speaker 1

Today, it appears we have no further questions at this time. I will now turn the program back over to CEO, Kristin Peck.

Speaker 3

Today. Thank you so much. And thanks everybody for your questions and certainly for your continued interest in Zoetis. And just to summarize, we see really positive and sustainable demand for our products based on the fundamental drivers of animal health, we see continued strength across our diverse global portfolio, today, especially in our products for pet care. And we're continuing to invest in the talent, the pipeline and the manufacturing capabilities that can support our future growth while adapting our business Due to the increasingly dynamic environment where we operate.

Speaker 3

So, we look forward to keeping you updated on future calls and thanks so much for joining us today.

Speaker 1

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This concludes today's conference. You may now disconnect.

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Earnings Conference Call
Zoetis Q4 2022
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