Steve Filton
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer at Universal Health Services
Yes. So, I think on the acute side, there are specific headwinds, again, most of which I think Marc elaborated on. One -- probably the biggest one is the $100 million of COVID-related reimbursement that includes the Medicare 20% add-on, the HRSA reimbursement, the Medicare sequestration waiver, all of which get phased out at one point or another, already phased out in 2023. I'll throw into that, although not COVID related, another $10 million or so of 340B reimbursement that's going to get recouped in 2023.
In addition to that, there's -- Marc noted about $30 million of supplemental Medicaid reimbursement that declines next year. That's about $20 million in the behavioral business and $10 million in the acute business.
I think the other main issue is that even though, again, as Marc commented, we're expecting premium pay to decline another one-third, maybe another $150 million, $160 million in 2023, what our experience has been is that the savings from that, and there certainly are some savings, but the savings from that are offset to a large degree by increased base wages, recruitment incentives, sign-on bonuses, that sort of thing.
I think what our guidance, particularly in the acute business, implies or assumes is that all those trends sort of incrementally improve as the year goes on. But those are the headwinds, I think, specifically on the acute side of the business that mainly sort of tend to suppress the margins.
And on the behavioral side, it's really more on the labor side. I think where we're at in both businesses is that, at the moment, even though revenues are recovering, particularly on the behavioral side, salary expense or wage expenses still outpacing the growth in revenues. I think we believe that, by the second half of 2023, that begins to sort of stabilize and we start to sort of get to a more normalized historical pattern of revenue growth exceeding salary growth. But in the first half of the year, that's not the case. And again, I think that's probably the main driver of the margin pressure next year.