Paul E. Burdiss
Chief Financial Officer at Zions Bancorporation, National Association
Thank you, Harris, and good evening, everyone. I'll begin with a discussion of the components of pre-provision net revenue, or PPNR. Over three-quarters of our revenue is from the balance sheet through net interest income.
Slide 7 includes our overview of net interest income and the net interest margin. The chart on the left shows the recent five-quarter trend for both. Net interest income on the bars and the net interest margin in white boxes declined in the second quarter as our cost of funds, including the rates we pay on deposits, reflected the impact of the rising rate environment and more competitive pricing. Additional detail on changes in the net interest margin are outlined on Slide 8.
On the left-hand side of this slide, we provided a linked quarter waterfall chart outlining the changes in key components of the net interest margin. The approximately 100 basis points adverse impact associated with deposits, including both changes in rate and volume, was partially offset by the positive impact of loans, lower borrowing levels, and the increased value of non-interest-bearing funds.
As noted on prior calls, we have been more competitive with deposit pricing, a tactic that has accelerated in the second quarter due to increasing depositor sensitivity. Our success in growing customer deposits contributed to reducing the level of borrowed funds as we move through the second quarter, and non-interest-bearing sources of funds continue to serve as a significant contributor to balance sheet profitability.
The right-hand chart on this slide shows the net interest margin comparison to the prior year quarter. Higher rates were reflected in earning asset yields, which contributed an additional 187 basis points to the net interest margin. This combined with a nearly 100 basis point increase in the value of non-interest-bearing funds was almost entirely offset by increased deposit and borrowing costs.
Our outlook for net interest income in the second quarter of 2024 is stable to slightly decreasing relative to the second quarter of 2023. Risks and opportunities associated with this outlook include realized loan growth, competition for deposits and the path of interest rates across the yield curve.
Moving to non-interest income and revenue on Slide 9, customer-related non-interest income was $162 million, an increase of 7% versus the prior quarter and 5% versus the prior year. As we have previously noted, we modified our non-sufficient funds and overdraft fee practices near the beginning of the third quarter of 2022, which has reduced our non-interest income by about $3 million per quarter over the past year. Improvement in commercial account fees, including treasury management fees, has allowed us to make up the loss of this revenue.
Compared to the first quarter, customer fees grew $11 million, or 7%, due to strengthened loan syndications, interest rate derivative sales and other capital markets activity. Our outlook for customer-related non-interest income for the second quarter of 2024 is moderately increasing relative to the second quarter of 2023.
The chart on the right side of this slide includes adjusted revenue, which is the revenue included in adjusted pre-provision net revenue and is used in our efficiency ratio calculation. Adjusted revenue grew 3% from a year ago and decreased by 7% versus the first quarter due to the factors noted previously.
Adjusted non-interest expense, shown in the blue bars on Slide 10, decreased 3% from the prior quarter to $494 million. The first quarter typically includes seasonal items such as stock-based compensation for retirement-eligible employees and payroll taxes, and the second quarter, therefore, reflects a decrease due to the lack of those seasonal expenses. Reported expenses at $508 million includes $13 million in severance expense associated with our intent to flatten expenses over the next year.
Our outlook for adjusted non-interest expense is stable in the second quarter of 2024 when compared to the second quarter of 2023 and excludes any impact associated with the proposed FDIC special assessment.
Slide 11 highlights trends in our average loans and deposits over the past year. On the left side, you can see that loan growth has moderated in the current quarter. Our expectation is that loans will increase slightly in the second quarter of 2024 when compared to the second quarter of 2023.
Now turning to deposits on the right side of Slide 11, total deposits had declined for several quarters prior to the current quarter. And while average deposits for the second quarter were down slightly, ending balances grew 7% compared to the end of the first quarter. Customer deposits, excluding broker deposits, grew 3%. As noted previously, our deep customer relationships enabled deposit growth while also bringing new business to the bank.
The cost of deposits, shown in the white boxes, increased during the quarter to 127 basis points from 47 basis points in the prior quarter. As measured against the fourth quarter of 2021, the repricing beta on total deposits based on average deposit rates in the second quarter was 25%, and the similar measure for interest-bearing deposits was 43%. On a spot basis, at the end of the second quarter, the total cost of deposits was 1.7% and the interest-bearing deposit yield was 2.8%, bringing the realized deposit betas to 34% for total deposits and 55% for interest-bearing deposits at the end of the second quarter.
Earlier, I mentioned the contribution that non-interest-bearing funds has on the net interest margin. Slide 12 shows non-interest-bearing demand deposit volume trends. Although deposit volumes have been declining as more customers move into interest-bearing alternatives, the contribution to the net interest margin and therefore the value of the remaining deposits has increased significantly.
Slide 13 provides additional information on deposits, including a stratification by FDIC insurance status. As the chart on the left shows, we reported a notable increase in uninsured deposits throughout 2020 and 2021 and has been previously reported, the level of uninsured deposits has been falling back toward historical levels. During the second quarter, the ratio of insured deposits to total deposits stayed consistent at 55%. The growth in insured deposit balances included both reciprocal deposits and broker deposits. Our loan-to-deposit ratio on the right side is at 77%. To put this in historical context, total deposits are up 32% -- I'm sorry, total deposits are up 30%, or 22% excluding broker deposits, since the end of 2019.
Moving to Slide 14, our investment portfolio exists primarily to be a ready storehouse of funds to absorb client-driven balance sheet changes. On this slide, we show our securities and money market investment portfolios over the last five quarters. The size of the investment portfolio declined versus the previous quarter, but as a percent of earning assets, it remains larger than it was immediately preceding the pandemic.
This portfolio continues to behave as expected. Principal and prepayment-related cash flows were over $900 million in the second quarter. With this somewhat predictable portfolio cash flow, we anticipate that money market and investment securities balances combined will continue to decline over the near term, which will in turn be a source of funds for the rest of the balance sheet.
The duration of the investment portfolio is slightly shorter compared to the prior year period estimated at 3.7 years currently versus 4.4 years one year ago. This duration helps to manage the inherent interest rate mismatch between loans and deposits. With loan durations estimated to be 1.8 years and a larger deposit portfolio duration estimated to be about 2.5 years, fixed-term investments are required to bring balance to asset and liability duration.
Slide 15 provides information about our interest rate sensitivity. A comparison of our model results to recent actual deposit behavior suggests reduced asset sensitivity, which we are showing on this page with the bars labeled as adjusted deposit assumptions. In light of this change, we are actively managing our asset duration to the emerging liability duration. During the second quarter, $2.5 billion of received-fixed interest rate swaps were canceled and $2.5 billion of pay-fixed interest rate swaps were added.
On the right side of this slide, we've included detail on the impact current and implied rates are expected to have on net interest income. As a reminder, we have been using the terms latent interest rate sensitivity and emergent interest rate sensitivity to describe the effects on net interest income of rate changes that have occurred but have yet to be fully reflected in the repricing of financial instruments as well as those expected to occur as implied by the shape of the yield curve. Importantly, earning assets are assumed to remain unchanged in size or composition in these descriptions. These estimates also assume deposit behavior is in line with deposit behavior realized over the past 12 months.
Regarding latent sensitivity, the in-place yield curve as of June 30th will work through our net interest income over time. Assuming a funding cost beta based on recent history, we would expect net interest income to decline approximately 4% in the second quarter of 2024 when compared to the second quarter of 2023.
Regarding emergent sensitivity, if the June 30th, 2023 forward curve -- forward path of interest rates materializes, the emergent sensitivity measure indicates an improvement in net interest income of approximately 1% in addition to the latent sensitivity estimate in the second quarter of 2024 when compared to the second quarter of 2023. As noted previously, our outlook for net interest income for the second quarter of 2024 relative to the second quarter of 2023 is stable to slightly decreasing.
Our loss-absorbing capital position is shown on Slide 16. Our capital position is aligned with the bank's risk profile. The CET1 ratio continued to grow in the second quarter to 10.0%. This when combined with the allowance for credit losses compares well to a very low level of ongoing loan net charge-offs. As the macroeconomic environment remains uncertain, we would not expect share repurchases in the third quarter. We expect to maintain strong levels of regulatory capital while managing to a below-average risk profile.
On Slide 17, credit quality remains strong with non-performing assets and classified loan levels remaining stable and low. Net charge-offs were 9 basis points of loans for the quarter. Loan losses in the quarter were associated with borrowers that have struggled with idiosyncratic supply chain issues, delays in inventory build and change in customer demand. We do not feel these are indicative of emerging stress in the loan portfolio, which otherwise reflected slightly improving credit measures during the quarter.
The allowance for credit losses is 1.25% of loans, a 5 basis point increase over the prior quarter as a result of a somewhat weaker economic forecast. As we know this is a topic of interest, we have included detail around the commercial real estate portfolio, including the CRE office portfolio in the appendix of this presentation beginning on Page 29. CRE represents 23% of our total portfolio with office representing 17% of total CRE, or 4% of the total loan balances.
Credit quality measures for the total CRE portfolio remain strong. The office portfolio credit metrics were stable with lower classified and criticized rates when compared to industry trends. There were no losses in the quarter across the CRE portfolio and we expect the CRE portfolio to continue to perform well based on the current economic outlook.
Slide 18 summarizes the financial outlook provided over the course of this presentation. As a reminder, this outlook represents our best current estimate for the financial performance in the second quarter of 2024 as compared to the actual results reported for the second quarter of 2023. The quarters in between are subject to normal seasonality.