Microchip Technology Q1 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
August 3, 2023

There are 13 speakers on the call.

Operator

Welcome to the First Quarter Fiscal 20 24 Conference Call. I will now turn the call over to today's host, Erik Bjornholt, Chief Financial Officer of Microchip. You may begin.

Speaker 1

Good afternoon, everybody. During the course of this conference call, we will be making projections and other forward looking statements regarding future events or the future financial performance of the company. We wish to caution you that such statements are predictions and that actual events or results may differ materially. We refer you to our press release of today as well as our recent filings with the SEC that identify important risk factors that may impact Microchip's business and results of operations. In attendance with me today or Ganesh Moore, Microchip's President and CEO Steve Sanghi, Microchip's Executive Chair and Sajid Doudi, Microchip's Head of Investor Relations.

Speaker 1

I will comment on our Q1 fiscal year 2024 financial performance. Ganesh will then provide commentary on our results and discuss the current business environment as well as our guidance, and Steve will provide an update on our cash return strategy. We will then be available to respond to specific investor and analyst questions. We are including information in our press release and on this conference call on various GAAP and non GAAP measures. We have posted a full GAAP to non GAAP reconciliation on the Investor Relations page of our website at www.microchip.com and included reconciliation information in our earnings press release, which we believe you will find useful when comparing our GAAP and non GAAP results.

Speaker 1

We have also posted a summary of our outstanding debt and our leverage metrics on our website. I will now go through some of our operating results, including net sales, Gross Margin and Operating Expenses. Other than net sales, I will be referring to these results on a non GAAP basis. Net sales in the June quarter were $2,289,000,000 which was up 2.5% sequentially. We have posted a summary of our net sales by product line and Geography on our website for your reference.

Speaker 1

On a non GAAP basis, gross margins were a record at 68.4%, Operating expenses were at 20.3 percent and operating income was a record 48.1%. Non GAAP net income was $905,300,000 and non GAAP earnings per share on a diluted basis was a record $1.64 On a GAAP basis in the June quarter, gross margins were a record of 68.1%. Total operating expenses were $655,300,000 and included acquisition intangible amortization of $151,500,000 special charges of 1,700,000 share based compensation of $37,700,000 and a benefit of $400,000 for other matters. GAAP net income was a record $666,400,000 resulting in a record $1.21 per diluted share. Our non GAAP Cash tax rate was 14.2% in the June quarter.

Speaker 1

Our non GAAP tax rate for fiscal year 2024 is expected to be about 14%, Which is exclusive of the transition tax and any tax audit settlements related to taxes accrued in prior fiscal years. Our fiscal 2020 forecast tax rate is expected to be higher than our fiscal 2023 tax rate for a variety of factors, Including lower availability of tax attributes such as non operating losses, tax credits, Lower tax depreciation and our expectation for lower capital expenditures in the U. S. In fiscal 2024 as well as the impact of current tax rules requiring the capitalization of R and D expenses for tax purposes. We are still hopeful that the tax rules requiring companies to capitalize R and D expenses will be pushed out or repealed.

Speaker 1

If that were to happen, we would anticipate about a 200 basis points favorable adjustment to Microchip's non GAAP tax rate in future periods. Our inventory balance at June 30, 2023 was $1,336,000,000 We had 167 days of inventory at the end of the June quarter, progress as we would have liked to as we accommodated requests by customers to push out delivery schedules for products that were very far through the manufacturing process. We also continue to invest in building inventory for products with long lives and high margins, whose manufacturing capacity is being end of life by our Supply Chain Partners, and these last time buys represented 8 days of inventory at the end of June. We expect dollars and days of inventory on our balance sheet to reduce in the September quarter. Inventory at our distributors in the March quarter excuse me, and the June quarter was at 29 days, which was up 5 days from the prior quarter's level.

Speaker 1

Compared to our other regions, Inventory at our Asia distributors grew the most in the quarter as sell through activity was down significantly on a sequential basis in this region, Heavily driven by unfavorable business conditions in China. Our cash flow from operating activities was $993,200,000 in the June quarter. Included in our cash flow from operating activities was $106,100,000 of long term supply assurance receipts from customers. We have adjusted these items out of our free cash flow to determine the adjusted free cash flow that we will return to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases as these supply assurance payments will be refundable over time as purchase commitments are fulfilled. Our adjusted free cash flow was $776,000,000 in the June quarter.

Speaker 1

As of June 30, our consolidated cash and total investment position was $271,200,000 We paid down $413,000,000 of total debt in the June quarter and our net Debt was reduced by $450,200,000 Over the last 24 quarters since we closed the Microsemi acquisition and incurred over $8,000,000,000 in debt to do so, we have paid down $6,760,000,000 of debt and continue to allocate substantially all of our excess cash beyond dividends and stock buybacks to bring down this debt. In the June quarter, we retired $1,000,000,000 in bonds that matured using our line of credit to do so. Our line of credit had $725,000,000 of borrowings against it at June 30, 2023, after paying off the $1,000,000,000 in bonds. During the June quarter, we also retired $38,000,000 of total principal amount of our 2025, 2027 and 2,030 7 convertible bonds for a total cash payment of $90,100,000 The amount paid above the principal amount essentially works like a synthetic stock buyback, Reducing any current and future share count dilution that will result if these convertible bonds were ever converted into shares. The over $50,000,000 we paid above the par value for the convertible bonds was in addition to our normal share buyback activity that we executed during the quarter, Resulting in an additional reduction in the dilutive shares outstanding.

Speaker 1

Our adjusted EBITDA in the June quarter was a record at $1,172,000,000 51.2 percent of net sales. Our trailing 12 month adjusted EBITDA was also a record at 4 point $473,000,000,000 Our net debt to adjusted EBITDA was 1.29 at June 30, 2023, Down from 1.45 at March 31, 2023 and down from 2.05 at June 30, 2022. Capital expenditures were $111,100,000 in the June quarter. Our expectation for capital expenditures for fiscal year 2024 is between $300,000,000 $400,000,000 as we still have a lot of equipment that was ordered with long lead times that we will be receiving over the next year. We expect that our capital investments will continue to provide us with increased control over our production during periods of industry wide constraints.

Speaker 1

Depreciation expense in the June quarter was $50,500,000 I will now turn it over to Ganesh to give us comments on the performance of the business in the June quarter as well as our guidance for the September quarter. Ganesh?

Speaker 2

Thank you, Eric, and good afternoon, everyone. Our June quarter results were strong in the context of a slowing macro environment, marked by our continued disciplined execution as well as our resilient end markets and diversified customer base. Net sales grew 2.5% sequentially and 16.6% on a year over year basis to achieve another all time record of $2,290,000,000 The June quarter represented our 11th consecutive quarter of sequential revenue growth. Non GAAP gross and operating margins were both records at 68.4% and 48.1%, respectively. Our consolidated non GAAP diluted earnings per share was $0.64 per share, another record by a whisker and up 19.7% from the year ago quarter.

Speaker 2

Adjusted EBITDA was a record 51.2 percent of net sales and adjusted free cash flow was 33.9% of net sales in the June quarter, continuing to demonstrate the robust cash generation characteristics of our business. Our net leverage exiting June dropped to 1.29x. We returned $349,200,000 to shareholders in dividends and share repurchases in the June quarter, representing 67.5 percent of our March quarter adjusted free cash flow. Our capital return to shareholders in the September quarter will increase to 72.5 percent of our June quarter adjusted free cash flow as we continue on our path to return 100% of our adjusted free cash flow to shareholders by the March quarter of calendar year 2025. My profuse thanks to all our stakeholders who enabled us to achieve these outstanding results despite the increasingly challenging macro environment and especially to the worldwide Microchip team, whose tireless efforts and agility to adapt are what enable us to navigate effectively through the business cycles.

Speaker 2

Taking a look at our June quarter net sales from a product line perspective, our mixed signal microcontroller net sales set another all time record, coming in sequentially up 0.8% in the June quarter and up 22.5% on a year over year basis. Our analog net sales also set another all time record, coming in sequentially up 2.5% in the June quarter and up 9.2% on a year over year basis. Our FPGA net sales, which we comment on from time to time, had another record quarter with annualized revenue growth continuing to be in the double digits. Now for some color on the June quarter. While our overall business remains steady, our customers continue to feel the effects of slowing economic activity and increasing business uncertainty.

Speaker 2

Starting in early June, we saw business conditions deteriorate in 3 areas. First, our China business was much weaker than our expectations and has not recovered from the shutdowns of last year and the Lunar New Year holidays in the March quarter. This manifested in weak sell through activity and the building of inventory in the distribution channel in China. 2nd, we started to see initial signs of weakness and uncertainty in the Automotive and Industrial segments, reflecting the impact of high inflation and high interest rates driving more cautious spending. And third, we are seeing early signs of an impending slowdown in Europe, exacerbated by some of our European customers being dependent on exports to countries like China, whereas we noted the business environment is much weaker than expected.

Speaker 2

As a result, we continue to receive requests to push out our canceled backlog as customers start to rebalance their inventory in light of the weaker business conditions and increased uncertainty they were experiencing. We were able to push out meaningful amounts of non reschedulable backlog to later quarters to help many customers with inventory positions. While the rate of cancellation and push out requests appears to be stabilizing, We expect request to push out or cancel backlog will likely be with us through the rest of calendar 2023 as customers adjust to the new demand environment and attempt to de risk their inventory position commensurately. We are also seeing an increasing direct and indirect impact from the cumulative effect of U. S.

Speaker 2

Export control actions, especially in China. These actions were less of an issue over the last few quarters when demand was significantly higher than supply, But are more of an issue now as demand and supply come more into balance. Despite all the factors mentioned so far, in the June quarter, we were able to reverse Growth in days of inventory on our balance sheet with inventory dropping by 2 days to 167 days, of which 8 days of inventory were from an investment and last time buys of high margin, long live products whose manufacturing capacity was being end of life by our supply chain. Reflecting the slowing macro environment, especially in China, Our channel inventory grew by 5 days to 29 days. We continue to take actions to further reduce the days of inventory on our balance sheet, while maintaining absorption in our internal wafer fabrication factories.

Speaker 2

We're also working with our channel partners to find the right balance of inventory required to serve customers and to be positioned for an eventual strengthening of business conditions. Finally, while our overall inventory is still a bit higher than our target, we made excellent progress to position our inventory at the best locations in manufacturing to be able to rapidly respond to demand growth when the macro environment strengthens. Consistent with the slowing macro environment and the higher than target level of inventory on our balance sheet as well as with some of our customers and channel partners, Most of our internal factory expansion actions remain paused. This we expect will result in lower capital investments in fiscal year 2020 fiscal year 2025. During a period of macro weakness and business uncertainty, we believe Shorter lead times are the best way to help customers navigate the environment successfully and improve the quality of backlog placed on us.

Speaker 2

We have been able to reduce average lead time from roughly 52 weeks at the start of 2023 to roughly 26 weeks by the end of the June quarter. And we expect to continue to drive lead times down farther in the coming months. We have heard concerns from some of the investment community about falling lead times because it results in lower backlog. While this is often true, we believe the level of backlog does not equate to true end market consumption. And as a final analysis, shorter lead times enable our customers and Microchip to navigate an uncertain environment with Agility and More Effectively.

Speaker 2

Now let's get into the guidance for the September quarter. Although our backlog for the September quarter is strong, We are continuing to take active steps to help customers with inventory positions to push out their backlog. Taking all the factors we have discussed on the call today into consideration, We expect our net sales for the September quarter to be between up 1% and down 3% sequentially. At the midpoint of our net sales guidance for the September quarter, our year over year growth for the quarter would be 9.3%. We expect our non GAAP gross margin to be between 68.3% 68.5 percent of sales.

Speaker 2

We expect non GAAP operating expenses to be between 20.1% and 20.5 percent of sales. We expect non GAAP operating profit to be between 47.8% and 48.4 percent of sales. And we expect our non GAAP diluted earnings per share to be between $1.60 $1.64 At the midpoint of our non GAAP earnings per share guidance, our year over year growth for the September quarter would be 11% despite a much higher tax rate than the year ago quarter. As supply and demand come into balance, we expect normal seasonality to return to our business. Historically, the December quarter has been our seasonally weakest quarter.

Speaker 2

This year, we expect that our normal seasonality in the December quarter will likely be amplified by the macro weakness and business uncertainty that our customers are experiencing. As a result, we anticipate further business headwinds in the December quarter. However, notwithstanding any near term macro weakness, We are confident that semiconductors remain the engine of innovation for the markets and applications we serve. Our focus on total system solutions and Key Market Megatrends continues to fuel strong design win momentum, which we expect will drive above market long term growth. Finally, as you can see from our June quarter results and our September quarter guidance, our Microchip 3.0 strategy, which we launched 21 months ago, continues to be the foundation of our results as we continue to build and improve what we believe is one of the most diversified, defensible, High Growth, High Margin, High Cash Generating Businesses in the Semiconductor Industry.

Speaker 2

However, we recognize that we operate in cyclical industry and that we're not immune to the business cycles. If you review Microchip's peak to trough performance Through the business cycles over the last 15 plus years, which is included in the investor presentation posted on our website, You will observe our robust and consistent cash generation, gross margin and operating margin results. Although we don't know what exactly the future holds, If we were to experience a semiconductor inventory correction, like what the industry has seen in the past, we are highly confident and non GAAP operating margin to once again demonstrate consistency and resiliency through the cycle. And with that, let me pass the baton to Steve to talk more about our cash return Shareholders. Steve?

Speaker 3

Thank you, Ganesh, and good afternoon, everyone. I would like to reflect on our financial results announced today and provide you further updates on our cash return strategy. Reflecting on our financial results, I continue to be very proud of all employees of Microchip that have delivered another exceptional quarter while making new records in many respects, Namely record net sales, record non GAAP gross margin percentage, record non GAAP operating margin percentage, record non GAAP EPS and record adjusted EBITDA, and all of that in a continuing challenging environment. The Board of Directors announced an increase in the dividend of 36.2% from the year ago quarter to $0.41 per share. During the last quarter, we purchased $140,300,000 of our stock in the open market.

Speaker 3

We also paid out $208,900,000 in dividends. Thus, the total cash return was $349,200,000 This amount was 67.5 percent of our actual adjusted free cash flow of $517,300,000 during the March 2023 quarter. Our pay down of debt as well as record adjusted EBITDA drove down our net leverage at the end of June 2023 quarter to 1.29 times from 2.05 times at the end of June 2022. Ever since we achieved an investment grade rating for our debt in November 2021 and pivoted to increasing our capital return to shareholders, we have returned $2,686,000,000 to shareholders through June 30, 2023 by a combination of dividends and stock buybacks. In the current September quarter, we will use the adjusted free cash flow from the June quarter to target the cash returned to shareholders.

Speaker 3

The adjusted free cash flow Excludes a net $106,100,000 that we collected from our customers for long term supply assurance payments. These payments are refundable when purchase commitments are fulfilled. The adjusted free cash flow for the June quarter was $776,000,000 We plan to return 72.5 percent of For $562,600,000 of that amount to our shareholders with the dividend expected to be approximately $223,000,000 and the stock buyback expected to be approximately 339,600,000 Officer. Going forward, we plan to continue to increase free cash flow return to shareholders by 500 basis points every quarter until we reach 100 percent of adjusted free cash flow returned to shareholders. This will take 6 more quarters and dividends over time we expect will represent approximately 50% of our cash returns.

Speaker 3

With that, operator, will you please poll for questions?

Operator

Keypad.

Speaker 4

And

Operator

For the sake of time, we do ask that you limit yourself to one question, if possible. Our first question is going to come from Tore Svanberg with Stifel. Your line is open.

Speaker 4

Yes, thank you. I was hoping you could talk a little bit more about your orders. I mean, on the backlog, that will make sense. But I was just wondering if you could update us on orders, Especially by region. And are you seeing any sort of signs of life at all from China?

Speaker 4

Because obviously, they are trying to stimulate the economy. I'm just wondering if you've seen any data points there at all.

Speaker 2

I think going through the month of July, we have not yet China recover. There are discussions, I understand, about things they may do in the rest of this quarter. Those have yet to be seen. So I don't have anything more to add with respect to China. Our bookings have been Week.

Speaker 2

We do expect in time that those will begin to strengthen. There is still a lot of backlog that we're carrying and we are Pushing out backlog, so there's not an immediate requirement for bookings to spring back to where they used to be.

Speaker 4

Perfect. Thank you.

Speaker 1

You're welcome. Maybe I can just add to that, that bookings are a reflection of where lead times are. And with lead times Coming down, the customers just aren't viewing that they need to put the backlog in place because our lead times are falling pretty rapidly.

Speaker 4

Makes sense. Thank you, Eric.

Operator

Our next question is going to come from Vijay Rykers with Mizuho. Your line is open.

Speaker 5

Yes, hi. Just a quick question. I was wondering when you look at your Supply Chain, where are you seeing any what are you seeing on the pricing side, if you were to look at China or just globally?

Speaker 2

Supply chains are stable in most places where we buy wafers from where we buy some of our assembly and test services from. Clearly, on some of the materials, there may have been some movement in certain cases. I don't think we track it at the level that perhaps you may be interested in. But as I say, supply chains are stable, lead times have come down. We're able to get what we need.

Speaker 5

Got it. And in general, if you look at trends as you look out on the pricing side, any thoughts You could share, I mean, what has been trends and what do you see in the last 2, 3 years and how you see that going forward, I guess? And that's it. Thanks a lot.

Speaker 2

In our business for the embedded solutions business, pricing tends to be a lot more stable. Pricing is something you establish At the point of doing your new design in activity, not at the point at which you're fulfilling demand that's coming in. And outside of the last 2 years where there was significant inflation that we faced and that we passed on to our customers, pricing is usually relatively stable Over time, we're not looking to reduce pricing, we're going to increase pricing. And as we go forward, I don't expect that is going to change in the way that our business runs.

Speaker 5

Got it. Thank you.

Speaker 2

You're welcome.

Operator

Our next Question is going to come from Vivek Arya with Bank of America Securities. Your line is open.

Speaker 6

Thanks for taking my question. Sort of multipart but related, Dinesh, when I look at the September quarter outlook, it's kind of flattish, Even though you're describing the situation as getting somewhat tougher. And then as I look out to the December I think you mentioned it could be worse than seasonal. But even with the headwinds, do you see a scenario where Microchip could continue to grow Year on year, where you think we should be thinking about the Q1 of year on year declines? And if we were to, right, decline year on year, What would be the effect on gross margins?

Speaker 2

We haven't modeled what the December quarter nor are we guiding to what the December quarter is going to be. There are a range of scenarios that we are working with. And I don't really have any more color to offer on it. With respect to the gross margins, as we have said many times, we have a pretty strong resilience to the way the gross margin works. If you look at our inside outside mix, we still have a 60% outside mix.

Speaker 2

We are continuing to run our factory where for absorption purposes, we are building the product that we need to build and building some inventory. So really, I'm not trying to provide any guidance for December That you might have. But you're absolutely right. We are expecting that the December quarter is going to be weaker than normal seasonality.

Speaker 7

Thank you.

Operator

Our next question is going to come from Ambrish Srivastava with BMO Capital Markets. Your line is open.

Speaker 7

Hi, thank you very much. I wanted to ask about Automotive and Industrial. Industrial has weakened for some of your competitors for quite a few quarters and autos continues to be strong more or less, Although the growth rate seems to be de selling, what's your take on having to be through several cycles? We just started here and lead times are now Contracting. So how many quarters do you think the weakness in autos and for that matter industries for your business we should expect to last?

Speaker 2

It's very difficult for me to answer that question. There is that question of which part of this is just inventory digestion that's taking place and How much of it is consumption changes and how consumption changes might change? So just using China as the example, China consumption was weak Weaker than anyone expected in the June quarter. How does it come back in the September or December quarters is anybody's guessing where it's at. So I don't have a clear view of how long does automotive or industrial stay weak.

Speaker 2

We've gone through many cycles. They don't last forever, Obviously, and there are some typical cycles you can look back on and see how they perform.

Speaker 8

That's true.

Speaker 7

I just had a quick follow-up, Vinesh. I'm struggling with the R part of the NCNRs. What's the learning here? Has it allowed you To reduce the volatility that usually used to occur when we were going into a downturn, because you keep rescheduling these, I A couple of quarters you rescheduled these and you expect another reschedule next quarter. What's the right way investors should think about this?

Speaker 7

Because we've seen NCNRs By many companies, including and so I don't know what's the learning from this.

Speaker 2

Well, the purpose of the NCNR was to get a mutual commitment of investment we were going to make and benefit a customer was going to get. It's based on a set of assumptions about where business is going to go. And I think as lead times go farther and farther out, Everybody's visibility gets to be less clear. And the vast majority of the customers who were part of the and C and R programs have been extremely happy with what they were able to get in an extremely difficult environment in 2021 and 2022. No program is perfect.

Speaker 2

I believe that our programs have had substantially more benefit than issues with We are at a point of the cycle where the demand curve has changed. And as that demand curve changes, we have to adjust. And by the way, the same demand curve will change again as we go into 2024. So I think we have to look beyond a short term view of where this all ends up and look at How do these programs provide mutual benefit in the medium to long term?

Speaker 7

Makes sense. Thank you.

Speaker 2

You're welcome.

Operator

Our next question is going to come from Joel Moore with Morgan Stanley. Your line is open.

Speaker 9

Great. Thank you, guys. I guess, you're describing an environment in which you're seeing weakness in multiple regions, weakness in multiple end markets, and you're Characterizing that as kind of early signs of that. And yet you're only guiding down 1% quarter on quarter. So I guess it's like Do you have a level of demand that's lower than this?

Speaker 9

I mean, you have a lot of backlog right now. What happens is that backlog runs out? Can you just Give us a sense for what type of drawdown we might be looking at over the course of the next few quarters. Just anything qualitative you can help us with that

Speaker 2

We're calling as we see it. We've given you a guidance for September quarter that And that reflects what we see today in our backlog and what we see in the tone of the business. We're giving you a sense that the December quarter is going to be seasonally weaker than normal. And again, it has a number of puts and takes that I don't know what more I can say, Joe. It's the best that we're able to peer into the future And provide some insight as to where we think business is going.

Speaker 9

I can appreciate that. Thank you. And then in terms of The 40% operating margin, can you give us a sense for what the parameters are of that? Like how much Is that kind of a normal revenue weakness that you might have seen 2 or 3 years ago? Could you still do a north of 40% if it's worse than that?

Speaker 2

Can you just give us

Speaker 9

a sense for Your confidence in the durability of that number.

Speaker 2

Our confidence is pretty high. We have looked at a number of scenarios. We've looked at how other cycles have gone. And I think we'll be well above 40% in the way that we have modeled it in the different scenarios that we have provided. Eric, do you want to add more to it?

Speaker 1

Yes. I think you've summed it up well, Ganesh. We've done scenario planning and do not see a scenario where Our operating margins on a non GAAP basis could fall below 40%. So we're very comfortable in making that statement. Maybe the other piece that I would add to Ganesha's First response is, I think it's a little bit tricky for investors to understand what is normal seasonality for Microchip because of the supply constraints we've been under for the last couple of years and Ality didn't play a part in that.

Speaker 1

And then we've done a lot of acquisitions historically, right? But we would say that probably a normal December seasonal might be down 3% or 4%. So hopefully that provides some context and we're saying that based on the conditions that we're seeing it likely could be What's the word, Gannesh? It will be amplified. Yes, amplified.

Speaker 9

Great. Thanks so much for your candor. Much appreciated.

Operator

Our next question is going to come from Joshua Birchelter with TD Cowen. Your line is open.

Speaker 4

Hey, guys. Thank you for taking my question. In the past, you've thought you've sort of given us rough levels of where you expected inventory to come in, in the quarter. I guess given we're going through this digestion period,

Speaker 2

Can you

Speaker 4

give us any level that you would feel comfortable with? What sort of targets are you thinking about for on books and in the channel when you would feel More comfortable that you're shipping closer to end demand? Thank you.

Speaker 2

I think The channel inventory is driven by in part what the channel wants to carry, what we can supply And what their demand intensity is. So we don't try to guide where is the channel inventory going to go. It goes where it goes Based on those factors, we do take a lot of effort on the internal inventory inside Microchip. And we have an added factor at this point, which is we are trying to find customers who have inventory positions and are looking for push out help. And that has caused us to go slower than we would normally have liked, but it's the right long term answer for us and for our customers.

Speaker 2

And we do expect, as Eric said, to have both a reduction in absolute and days of inventory on our balance sheet in the September quarter.

Speaker 4

Appreciate the color there. As my follow-up, I mean, given that dynamic, your gross margin suggests that there's no real material cut, at least on Your internal utilization rates, can you talk about how you're thinking about running your factories through this period of digestion? And I guess the same question for your foundry partners as well. Thank you.

Speaker 2

Sure. So our internal fabs are continuing to run Relatively unchanged. These products are very long lived products. In many cases, had been depleted and the inventory points that we typically need to be able to serve at a high level of Certainly as well as the lead time we want. So our internal factories and the internal fabs in particular are continuing to run.

Speaker 2

And our foundry partners, depending on where the inventory levels were, in some cases, we will be adjusting and have adjusted That will be purchasing to bring that inventory into line with where we want to be long term.

Speaker 4

Thank you.

Speaker 2

You're welcome.

Operator

Our next question is going to come from Chris Caso with Wolfe Research. Your line is open.

Speaker 4

Yes, good evening. Thank you. First question is about So

Speaker 2

I guess something we haven't spoken about in

Speaker 4

a while, the potential for the requirement for turns. And can you speak about that Given the reduction in lead times, the fact that customers are booking closer in, are we in a situation

Speaker 2

Chris, we may have lost you. Can you hear us?

Operator

It looks like Chris' line had dropped. So until he calls back, we'll just move on to the next person in queue. And that's going to be Harlan Sur with JPMorgan. Your line is open.

Speaker 10

Hi, good afternoon. Thanks for taking my question. The team had a target to get average lead times down to 26 weeks in the second half. I mean, you're there now given the Rescheduling activity, kind of near term demand weakness, improving boundary capacity, right? I think normal average Historical lead times for you guys have been in that 8 to 12 week range.

Speaker 10

Is this that kind of a range that you As you move to the second half of the year now and just quick follow-up, do you guys expect to see your channel distribution inventories continue to rise from the 29 day level In this weak environment?

Speaker 2

So first to take the lead times. We are continuing to drive As I mentioned in my prepared remarks, we believe that short lead times is what makes us all effective and agile Officer. In an unpredictable business environment that we're in. And we're on average at just under 26 weeks right now. I think we will end the year at well under 13 weeks.

Speaker 2

It could be under 10 weeks by that time, but we'll know how we progress in that time. 4 to 8 weeks is where our lead times are for 90% or so of our line items as a historical benchmark for where we were. With respect to distribution inventory, as I mentioned a little earlier on, it has many functions. It's a function of what kind of sell through Are they seeing what kind of inventory do they want to carry? What are we able to supply that maybe they've been asking for some time to be able to do it.

Speaker 2

I don't have any color on what distribution inventory is likely to be doing outside of what we've provided so far for June.

Speaker 10

Okay. Thanks, Ganesh.

Speaker 2

Welcome. Thanks, Arun. Chris, are you back?

Operator

Yes, Chris Caso, your line is open again.

Speaker 4

Yes, not sure what happened, but thank you. So the question was on the turns environment. It's obviously you haven't seen turns in several quarters given the high backlog. Is that something you contemplate Either from the September quarter December quarter. And can you tell us how you're thinking about that, the turns business under the context of shortening lead time?

Speaker 2

Yes. We certainly expect that turns will be a requirement as we go into the December quarter. And it's a normal part of the business that we have done with it. And so Most things are starting to normalize again with respect to lead times, what kind of backlog coverage we'll have. And turns is just something else we'll have to manage as we normally do, Starting from the December quarter onwards.

Speaker 4

Okay. But it starts in December, not in September?

Speaker 2

There may have been small parts in the September quarter and we're 1 third of the way in through the September quarter.

Speaker 4

Right, right. That's helpful. As a follow-up, I wonder if you could expand on some of the comments about Europe. And we've heard from various others in Obviously, weakness about China. There's been a bit here and there about industrial and auto, but really not Any comments about Europe?

Speaker 4

That's something new. And if you can expand upon what you're seeing there.

Speaker 2

Yes. As I mentioned, I think Europe is more as I look forward, there are more headwinds that European economies are facing. I believe technically Germany is now in a recession. It's had 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP. And interest rates are still high.

Speaker 2

Inflation is still high. There's energy inflation, which is larger than in the U. S. And some of the large European economies rely on export, China being one to the extent China is weak. We're going to see some of that weakness in China, but we'll also see some of the weakness in Europe When their exports are not quite clear.

Speaker 2

That's the addition of all of what we see as we look into where are things going and the impact from Europe.

Speaker 4

Got it. It's helpful. Thank you and thank you for coming back to my question.

Speaker 2

You're welcome. Thanks, Chris, and welcome back.

Operator

Our next question is going to come from Timothy Arcuri with UBS. Your line is open.

Speaker 11

Thanks a lot.

Speaker 2

I had a question on

Speaker 11

cancellations. And in the past You've been working with customers on allowing push outs. But in the past, you've been offering customers to Cancel for a fee. So if you want to bring down backlog, are you sort of increasingly forcing cancellation versus just allowing customers push out shipments. I guess if you want to bring down backlog, one quick way to do that, force them to cancel versus just allowing them to push things out?

Speaker 11

Thanks.

Speaker 2

We're not intentionally trying to bring backlog down. We are trying to help customers who have backlog placed on us, But would prefer to receive it in some cases later than what is presently scheduled for. Backlog will over time has been coming down As the fever of what was in 2022 2021 where people are placing huge amounts of backlog out in time starts to settle out, especially as this time is starting to come in, as the industry starts to normalize, backlog will get back to what it used to be normally pre COVID. And so that's really what's happening with backlog. We're not trying to force it down in any way.

Speaker 11

Thanks a lot. And then just as a quick follow-up. In China, do you think any of the weakness in China, are you seeing examples of locally sourced product that is being that you're being displaced by. I know that you don't have very much exposure there. If you net out the proprietary stuff.

Speaker 11

It's probably only 5% that kind of subject to some sort of going local, but are you seeing any of that? Thanks.

Speaker 2

In fact, it's a timely question. We just had a review with our China team here yesterday on exactly that topic. And there is little to no loss to the local China producers that we're able to see either in design or in things that are in production today. So No. It is actual consumption that is weak.

Speaker 2

There is a lot of uncertainty in China with respect What the amount of debt people are carrying are, what kind of stimulus is going to take place. And I think there is A consumption that is waiting to happen and I hope it will open up at some point in time. But at the moment, I think are uncertain enough that consumption is being held down. Thank you so much. Thanks.

Speaker 2

Welcome.

Operator

Our next question is going to come from William Stein with Churist. Your line is open.

Speaker 12

Great. Thank you. I wanted to address the similar question about cancellations that That we understand with the PSP and the NCNRs, you've been much more flexible, at least somewhat flexible on rescheduling, but much less so on canceling, which I think we all respect. But when we look at the growth rates of a wide variety of competitors, They've seen this downturn.

Operator

Okay. William Stein's line has disconnected as well. So our next question Officer is going to come from Janet Ramkison with Quadra Capital. Your line is open.

Speaker 8

Hi, Steve, Ganesh. Guys, somewhat of a different tone over this question. Could you provide a little bit of color on your efforts with Risk V and the PolarFire SOC FPGA program. Anything you could share with us about design win activity, end markets where you're gaining traction with this program? And any sense of when we're likely to see any real revenue growth from this Sarah, my understanding is that there's a lot of interest in risk 5 for embedded applications.

Speaker 2

Sure. Thank you, Janet. So we were among the very early proponents of using RISC V for our FPGA Solutions, as you mentioned. Those products have been in production. They are ramping.

Speaker 2

In fact, the PolarFire family, as you mentioned it, It's the fastest growing FPGA that we have. If you look like for like, what is it doing after X amount of quarters and where it's at. It is winning in the traditional markets that FPGA that came to us from Microsemi was winning, which is in aerospace and defense, Some in the communication space, but also increasingly, it is winning quite significantly in industrial and it is winning in some automotive applications as well. So quite broadly present. It is doing exceedingly well.

Speaker 2

It is contributing to the results that we have been quoting on FPGA Both last quarter for the fiscal year and this quarter to reflect that it is hitting new records every quarter. And we are very, very optimistic about how risk V based CGAs, along with all of the other elements that we have integrated on the solution is going to play out. And it will be a huge growth driver for Microchip. Hi, Mike.

Speaker 4

Hi, Mike.

Speaker 7

Hi, Mike.

Speaker 4

Hi, Mike. Hi.

Speaker 8

Nice to hear from you too, Steve. But just one quick follow-up, if I may. Given the capability that is made possible By this new architecture, and its ability to integrate, analog and digital functionality in a very effective way. Shouldn't this also be have positive implications for gross margins on these products Above corporate average?

Speaker 2

So I wouldn't place the risk 5 architecture As the reason for the gross margin or the performance of the product line. The product line is an enormously complex product, comes with lots of software, lots of tools, lot of application information that we put together. How we put it all together And turn it from a complex capability to an easy to use solution is what determines design wins, revenue growth, Gross margin, customer adoption, etcetera. So it's much, much more than anything about risk 5 alone or any other core for that matter.

Speaker 3

The product lines gross margins are definitely well above corporate average. But as Ganesh said, they're not because of the risk five. It's because of the overall architecture of the SPGA, the tools, the value we provide in the markets

Speaker 8

Thanks very much guys. Appreciate it.

Speaker 2

Great. You're welcome. Did we were we able to get Will back?

Operator

Yes. William Stein, your line is open again.

Speaker 12

Great. I'll try to do a shorter preamble and just say, Microchip is clearly experiencing this down cycle later than others. I think it's pretty clear it's because you've had these the PSP and other flavors of NCNR and You've been clear that you're allowing customers to reschedule and not so flexible on the cancellations. If we look at your number guidance, I'm guessing that if you told every customer that wanted to reschedule or cancel no, Then you would have had higher revenue or had higher guidance. Likewise, if you allowed everyone to

Operator

Unfortunately, it looks like his line has dropped again.

Speaker 2

I have

Speaker 3

no idea why the lines are dropping. Will can just call us back after the call and we'll take his question.

Speaker 2

Were there other questions or other callers that are still in the queue?

Operator

No, there are no more questions in queue.

Speaker 2

Okay. Well, thank you everyone for attending today Officer, and we have follow-up meetings with many of you as well. But I look forward to talking to you either in those calls or In the many events we will be at during the course of this quarter.

Speaker 4

So thank you.

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Earnings Conference Call
Microchip Technology Q1 2024
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