Written by Matthew Paulson
August 4, 2018
After the end of the pandemic, many investors thought the stock market could do no wrong. There were unprecedented levels of government spending. Borrowing money was basically free. Public companies were seeing massive growth and record profits. The stock market could do no wrong.
When interest rates started to rise and government stimulus dried up, the stock market had a wakeup call in 2022 and 2023. We were returning to a more normal economic environment and many thought that a recession was just around the corner. While the market did slow down for a while, the economy never stopped growing despite the war in Ukraine, rising interest rates, and political strife.
The economy has been very resilient for the last few years, but this trend won't last forever. At some point another deep recession will come, like the Great Recession in 2008, and it will likely be caused by something we haven't even foreseen yet. After all, who thought the world would need to shut down due to a global pandemic? And who thought Russia would invade Ukraine?
While we don't know when the next recession will occur, it's good to have a balanced basket of stocks in your portfolio. Yes, you want some growth stocks in your portfolio, but you also want some defensive plays that will thrive during recessionary times. We have learned there are several stocks that have a history of performing well even when the economy does not.
In this special report, we have identified ten companies who are well positioned to help your portfolio not only survive, but thrive, when the stock market does take its inevitable tumble.
Quick Links
- Wal-Mart
- Johnson and Johnson
- General Mills
- Pfizer
- Procter and Gamble
- Dollar Tree
- McDonalds
- Costco
- Ross Stores
- Amgen
#1 - Wal-Mart (NYSE:WMT)
WalMart (WMT) is one of those companies that keeps it simple, advertising and delivering on “Everyday low prices.” In robust economies, the retailer may be “discounted” by analysts as it finds its margins squeezed, but the company consistently shines during recessions. The company benefits from its chain of Sam’s Club stores which cater to consumers who buy in bulk. These stores tend to thrive as consumers look for the value of bulk purchases to make their dollars stretch. In the past year, WalMart has been actively increasing its e-commerce efforts in response to the popularity of Amazon, and analysts are seeing those efforts begin to pay off. A strong e-commerce presence would provide additional support for WalMart should the economy move into recession.
In 2008, the company posted a 7.2 percent revenue gain and a stock price increase of 20%, beating the S&P 500 by 58.5%. And WalMart was one of the few companies to increase their dividend yield during 2008, despite warnings from Wall Street. This was particularly impressive since some businesses were cutting their dividends altogether. The current consensus opinion of analysts is a hold. Despite this, WalMart’s stock is expected to achieve 8.6 percent growth in 2018.
About Walmart
Walmart Inc engages in the operation of retail, wholesale, other units, and eCommerce worldwide. The company operates through three segments: Walmart U.S., Walmart International, and Sam's Club. It operates supercenters, supermarkets, hypermarkets, warehouse clubs, cash and carry stores, and discount stores under Walmart and Walmart Neighborhood Market brands; membership-only warehouse clubs; ecommerce websites, such as walmart.com.mx, walmart.ca, flipkart.com, PhonePe and other sites; and mobile commerce applications.
Read More - Current Price
- $92.24
- Consensus Rating
- Moderate Buy
- Ratings Breakdown
- 29 Buy Ratings, 2 Hold Ratings, 0 Sell Ratings.
- Consensus Price Target
- $93.69 (1.6% Upside)
#2 - Johnson and Johnson (NSE:JNJ)
It’s almost too easy to talk about Johnson & Johnson’s (JNJ) status as a Dividend Aristocrat as a reason this stock should be in your portfolio during a recession, but it’s hard to overstate. J&J is one of only 19 companies that can say they have offered 50 consecutive years of dividend growth. That’s a long time. And it shows no sign of ending. This is because of a well-diversified portfolio both in terms of the products they provide and the markets in which those products are sold. They offer brands that are literally household names such as Neutrogena and Listerine.
The company has three operating segments that are proven to weather economic headwinds: pharmaceuticals, medical devices, and consumer health. Normally, having diversification over several segments allows one or two units to pick up the slack when others underperform. In the case of J&J, all their business units continue to make a profit, allowing the company to generate significant cash flow, which should allow them to continue to issue a healthy dividend, making this stock very attractive to investors.
About
- Current Price
- 0.00
- Consensus Rating
- N/A
- Ratings Breakdown
- 0 Buy Ratings, 0 Hold Ratings, 0 Sell Ratings.
- Consensus Price Target
- N/A
#3 - General Mills (NYSE:GIS)
General Mills (GIS) is one of those stocks that can be owned in good times and bad. However, demand for their products tends to increase during recessions largely because consumers will seek their products as they trim their entertainment budgets.
General Mills stock avoids the volatility that is typically associated with high return stocks. Case in point, in the last 10 years, the stock of General Mills has an annualized standard deviation of 17 percent. And, like many companies on this list, General Mills is a Dividend Aristocrat offering a dividend that has been steady or increasing for 115 years. This combination of low volatility and consistent dividend payments without a reduction is more in line with what you’d expect from a utility stock. However, this is a company that expects double-digit total returns. In fact, in the 20-year period from 1995-2015, General Mills averaged an 11 percent total return per year, beating the broader S&P 500 which averaged 9 percent per year. The stock is trading for an adjusted price-to-earnings ratio of 18.9, which could make it a nice bargain ahead of the next financial crisis.
About General Mills
General Mills, Inc manufactures and markets branded consumer foods worldwide. The company operates through four segments: North America Retail; International; Pet; and North America Foodservice. It offers grain, ready-to-eat cereals, refrigerated yogurt, soup, meal kits, refrigerated and frozen dough products, dessert and baking mixes, bakery flour, frozen pizza and pizza snacks, snack bars, fruit and savory snacks, ice cream and frozen desserts, unbaked and fully baked frozen dough products, frozen hot snacks, ethnic meals, side dish mixes, frozen breakfast and entrees, nutrition bars, and frozen and shelf-stable vegetables.
Read More - Current Price
- $63.61
- Consensus Rating
- Hold
- Ratings Breakdown
- 4 Buy Ratings, 12 Hold Ratings, 1 Sell Ratings.
- Consensus Price Target
- $71.56 (12.5% Upside)
#4 - Pfizer (NYSE:PFE)
Pfizer (PFE) is another one of those stocks that can find the going tough in a booming economy. Like many companies it’s only offense in the short term is that it’s not growing as fast as investors would like. They do have some questions about their pipeline of new products, and they lost exclusivity of their Viagra brand in December of 2017. All this has some analysts urging buyers to hold on this stock. However, a closer look at the analysts’ reports showed that the next largest block of analysts gave the stock a buy rating. Do they know something? Maybe, but if you’re reading this, you’re looking for stocks that should perform well in a recession. And there’s little doubt that Pfizer can play that role very well. Consumers will need, and want, their products. And since bottoming out at the beginning of the great recession in 2009, the stock has been trending upward, albeit perhaps at a slower rate than its competitors. It continues to pay a dividend. Its next dividend will be valued at $1.36 per share with a dividend yield of 3.52 percent.
About Pfizer
Pfizer Inc discovers, develops, manufactures, markets, distributes, and sells biopharmaceutical products in the United States, Europe, and internationally. The company offers medicines and vaccines in various therapeutic areas, including cardiovascular metabolic, migraine, and women's health under the Eliquis, Nurtec ODT/Vydura, Zavzpret, and the Premarin family brands; infectious diseases with unmet medical needs under the Prevnar family, Abrysvo, Nimenrix, FSME/IMMUN-TicoVac, and Trumenba brands; and COVID-19 prevention and treatment, and potential future mRNA and antiviral products under the Comirnaty and Paxlovid brands.
Read More - Current Price
- $26.36
- Consensus Rating
- Hold
- Ratings Breakdown
- 7 Buy Ratings, 9 Hold Ratings, 1 Sell Ratings.
- Consensus Price Target
- $32.14 (21.9% Upside)
#5 - Procter and Gamble (NYSE:PG)
To look at Procter & Gamble (PG) shares as a solid option to get you through a recession, you have to sort of tune out a lot of the bad news that’s been surrounding it lately. This large-cap company has been failing to keep up with the S&P 500 for quite some time. In fact, over the last 10 years, P&G’s stock has risen 12%, about half of the broader market. But when you're looking at recession-proof stocks, you're not blitzing the quarterback, you're playing defense, and P&G is a defensive stock that was built to weather the tough times. Why? Brand names that every consumer needs, every single day. But they play in an arena that's ripe with competitors and requires a company that is committed to operating efficiently. And that's exactly what investors can expect from P&G. This company has been one of the Dividend Aristocrats for 62 years. Its latest dividend was valued at $2.87 per share for an impressive dividend yield of 3.58 percent.
About Procter & Gamble
The Procter & Gamble Company engages in the provision of branded consumer packaged goods worldwide. The company operates through five segments: Beauty; Grooming; Health Care; Fabric & Home Care; and Baby, Feminine & Family Care. The Beauty segment offers conditioners, shampoos, styling aids, and treatments under the Head & Shoulders, Herbal Essences, Pantene, and Rejoice brands; and antiperspirants and deodorants, personal cleansing, and skin care products under the Olay, Old Spice, Safeguard, Secret, SK-II, and Native brands.
Read More - Current Price
- $168.06
- Consensus Rating
- Moderate Buy
- Ratings Breakdown
- 16 Buy Ratings, 7 Hold Ratings, 0 Sell Ratings.
- Consensus Price Target
- $180.45 (7.4% Upside)
#6 - Dollar Tree (NASDAQ:DLTR)
It’s hard not to love a stock that’s quadrupled in value over the last decade. Still, Dollar Tree (DLTR) has been taking it on the chin lately. Their crime? Their growth is slower than expectations. This is indicative of companies like Dollar Tree that have a business model that caters to value-conscious consumers. When the economy is growing, consumers feel more comfortable doing all their shopping at full-price rivals, rather than splitting their shopping trips looking for bargains. However, when the economy starts to slow down, many of these shoppers return to Dollar Tree. After all, as the name implies, you can buy many items for just one dollar.
Dollar Tree proved its mettle in the last recession, generating a 2008 return of 60.8 percent which outpaced the S&P 500 by 99.3 percent. If there is an economic downturn, companies like Dollar Tree are well positioned because they are not as exposed to the e-commerce trend and, in fact, can offer some value that even those companies can't.
About Dollar Tree
Dollar Tree, Inc operates retail discount stores. The company operates in two segments, Dollar Tree and Family Dollar. The Dollar Tree segment offers merchandise at the fixed price of $ 1.25. It provides consumable merchandise, which includes everyday consumables, such as household paper and chemicals, food, candy, health, personal care products, and frozen and refrigerated food; variety merchandise comprising toys, durable housewares, gifts, stationery, party goods, greeting cards, softlines, arts and crafts supplies, and other items; and seasonal goods that include Christmas, Easter, Halloween, and Valentine's Day merchandise.
Read More - Current Price
- $72.94
- Consensus Rating
- Hold
- Ratings Breakdown
- 5 Buy Ratings, 16 Hold Ratings, 0 Sell Ratings.
- Consensus Price Target
- $85.58 (17.3% Upside)
#7 - McDonalds (NYSE:MCD)
Some consumers might say it’s hard to recognize McDonald’s (MCD) anymore. The golden arches have receded from view, as the fast-food giant has refreshed the look and experience of their stores to compete with new entries in the fast-casual segment. Still, despite in-store kiosks and even home delivery in some markets, McDonald’s is showing that it understands, and is devoted to, its core customer. These customers represent the true believers of the brand and it’s where the company expects its growth to come from. Says CEO Steve Eastbrook, “We remain focused on delivering the most enjoyable experience for every customer, every visit," he said. "Whether that is when they visit a modernized restaurant with inviting hospitality or through the convenience of having delicious food delivered to their home, we know that our fundamental day-to-day commitment to our customers is running great restaurants."
McDonald’s focus on their core customer was rewarded during the last recession when their revenue grew 3.2 percent and operating income increased 17 percent. For the year, their stock had an increased return of 8.5 percent, outperforming the S&P 500 by 47 percent. There’s no reason to believe that McDonald’s won’t enjoy a similar performance whenever the next recession hits.
About McDonald's
McDonald's Corporation operates and franchises restaurants under the McDonald's brand in the United States and internationally. It offers food and beverages, including hamburgers and cheeseburgers, various chicken sandwiches, fries, shakes, desserts, sundaes, cookies, pies, soft drinks, coffee, and other beverages; and full or limited breakfast, as well as sells various other products during limited-time promotions.
Read More - Current Price
- $292.68
- Consensus Rating
- Moderate Buy
- Ratings Breakdown
- 17 Buy Ratings, 11 Hold Ratings, 0 Sell Ratings.
- Consensus Price Target
- $320.65 (9.6% Upside)
#8 - Costco (NASDAQ:COST)
Costco (COST) is showing that there can be steady growth in a sector that includes Amazon. Like other companies in this segment, Costco competes for the consumers who find buying in bulk an attractive option when the economy is good, and even more so when times get tough. These consumers are true believers in this model and, for them, a trip to Costco can be a destination shopping event. And while some retailers continue to struggle, Costco has seen same-store sales increase by almost 10 percent in the first half of 2018. And despite a price increase, membership renewal rates (which generate much of their profit) have remained steady at around 90 percent.
In fact, with their investment into e-commerce and home delivery and new locations due to open, including an anticipated expansion into China, analysts are predicting Costco’s net income average growth to be just shy of 12 percent (11.9) for the next five years. Costco’s stock is now trading near an all-time high, and while it may be seen as pricey now (their current price-to-earnings ratio is 28), the company is well positioned for long term growth, even if another global recession hits.
About Costco Wholesale
Costco Wholesale Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the operation of membership warehouses in the United States, Puerto Rico, Canada, Mexico, Japan, the United Kingdom, Korea, Australia, Taiwan, China, Spain, France, Iceland, New Zealand, and Sweden. The company offers branded and private-label products in a range of merchandise categories.
Read More - Current Price
- $954.07
- Consensus Rating
- Moderate Buy
- Ratings Breakdown
- 19 Buy Ratings, 8 Hold Ratings, 0 Sell Ratings.
- Consensus Price Target
- $1,011.74 (6.0% Upside)
#9 - Ross Stores (NASDAQ:ROSS)
When the economy slows, buyers flee towards value. That’s where companies like discount clothing retailer Ross Stores (ROST) thrive. While already capturing the budget-minded shopper, the company has displayed proven performance among more affluent consumers when the economy slows. During the 2008 recession, the company added 66 stores. And by rewarding its shareholders with a 17.6 percent return in that time, it beat the S&P 500 average by 56 percent. In advance of their second-quarter earnings announcement on August 16, analysts are projecting a 6.4 percent increase in year-over-year sales. The consensus rating on Ross Stores is a buy, with stock prices forecast to increase up to 0.7 percent. Investors also look for the relative security of dividend stocks during recessions. Ross Stores pays an annual dividend of $0.90 per share with a current dividend yield of 1.04 percent. The company has increased its dividend every year for the last 11 years at an average of 17% each year, making it a great potential source of income during the next downturn.
About
- Current Price
- 0.00
- Consensus Rating
- N/A
- Ratings Breakdown
- 0 Buy Ratings, 0 Hold Ratings, 0 Sell Ratings.
- Consensus Price Target
- N/A
#10 - Amgen (NASDAQ:AMGN)
Amgen (AMGN) has presented a bit of a puzzle to analysts. On the one hand, their top line has slowed because their former top drug, Embrel, has seen its revenue slow. However, the drug is still on pace to generate $4.2 billion in sales in 2018. Furthermore, Amgen projects that it will maintain exclusivity with Embrel through 2029. The company also has released a new migraine drug, Aimovig, which they are hoping will buoy the top line. For all the concern about their top line, Amgen released their second-quarter earnings on July 26 and beat estimates. Furthermore, analysts have Amgen rated as a consensus buy and their stock price is forecast to have a 6.2 percent upgrade in 2018. The company also issued a $1.32 per share dividend, equating to a 2.77% dividend yield.
Furthermore, the company is in one of a handful of recession-proof industries. Consumers need their medicines and that is one area where they are unlikely to scale back. This was evident in 2008 when Amgen posted a 24.3 percent return, outperforming the S&P 500 by 62.8 percent.
About Amgen
Amgen Inc discovers, develops, manufactures, and delivers human therapeutics worldwide. The company's principal products include Enbrel to treat plaque psoriasis, rheumatoid arthritis, and psoriatic arthritis; Otezla for the treatment of adult patients with plaque psoriasis, psoriatic arthritis, and oral ulcers associated with Behçet's disease; Prolia to treat postmenopausal women with osteoporosis; XGEVA for skeletal-related events prevention; Repatha, which reduces the risks of myocardial infarction, stroke, and coronary revascularization; Nplate for the treatment of patients with immune thrombocytopenia; KYPROLIS to treat patients with relapsed or refractory multiple myeloma; Aranesp to treat a lower-than-normal number of red blood cells and anemia; EVENITY for the treatment of osteoporosis in postmenopausal for men and women; Vectibix to treat patients with wild-type RAS metastatic colorectal cancer; BLINCYTO for the treatment of patients with acute lymphoblastic leukemia; TEPEZZA to treat thyroid eye disease; and KRYSTEXXA for the treatment of chronic refractory gout.
Read More - Current Price
- $263.38
- Consensus Rating
- Hold
- Ratings Breakdown
- 11 Buy Ratings, 12 Hold Ratings, 2 Sell Ratings.
- Consensus Price Target
- $319.67 (21.4% Upside)
Fainthearted investors don’t like to hear the words “bear market” and “recession”. To avoid the roller coaster of seeing the value of their portfolio temporarily drop, they may opt out of the market altogether. But savvy investors know that bear markets and global recessions give investors the opportunity to buy quality stocks at tremendous discounts. The question is knowing which recession-proof businesses to pick.
Some of the recession proof stocks on this list have a history of not only paying a dividend but taking care that it is steady or increasing every year. Others have lower a price-to-earnings ratio than the broader market. All of them play in the sectors that are the most immune from recessions. People will still eat fast food, they’ll get their prescriptions, and they will still buy their consumer staples. And if you look to invest in these companies, your portfolio will be well positioned to help carry your portfolio through a recession--regardless of what the stock market does.
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