The quaint correction that was labeled the “tech wreck” of 2018 seems like a distant memory to investors. What also seems like a distant memory is any thought of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates.
At the end of 2018, the Federal Reserve had raised its benchmark federal funds rate. With the trade dispute with China dragging on, there was increasing pressure on the Fed to lower interest rates. When interest rates are lower, stocks will generally rise as investors have no other option for growth.
In July 2019, the doves got their wish. But in a move that now seems to be a “what did they know move”, the Fed dropped rates again in October. The market soared to record highs in January and early February. Since mid-February however, the market has fallen dramatically, and the Fed juiced the market one more time by cutting rates down to levels not seen since the financial crisis.
None of us know for sure when the U.S. economy will be opened up. And while stocks are still a good investment, not every stock is a smart investment at this time. But some stocks perform well when interest rates are falling and that’s why we’ve prepared this presentation.
These six stocks stand to benefit from both low-interest rates and the unique economic conditions being brought on by the Covid-19 pandemic.
Quick Links
- Home Depot
- D.R. Horton
- Kellogg
- American Electric Power
- Wells Fargo
- AngloGold Ashanti
#1 - Home Depot (NYSE:HD)
The first stock to look at is Home Depot (NYSE:HD). Just because many Americans are sheltering in place doesn’t mean they won’t need to make a home repair. In fact, you might argue that having more time at home will make it more likely that something will break down. Plus, many homeowners are taking advantage of their time in quarantine to work on long overlooked home improvement projects.
That’s one reason why HD stock has bounced off recent lows. In mid-March, when the economy was shutting down, Home Depot stock was down nearly 50%. It has since trimmed that loss. While it is still down nearly 10% for 2020, it is only down about 3% in the last 12 months.
And with lower interest rates, the cost of borrowing goes down. This means that this home improvement runway should be nice and long. Not to mention the pent-up demand for new home buyers once the most restrictive shelter-in-place guidelines are lifted.
Home Depot does not have a moat in this sector. But they have been ahead of the curve in terms of becoming an omnichannel retailer. This is the idea of companies delivering products to customers where and when they want it.
The interesting thing about omnichannel is that many companies are adopting an omnichannel strategy to compete with Amazon. However, it’s actually a strategy that plays very well with a society that will undoubtedly be altered in fundamental ways by the Covid-19 pandemic.
About Home Depot
The Home Depot, Inc operates as a home improvement retailer in the United States and internationally. It sells various building materials, home improvement products, lawn and garden products, and décor products, as well as facilities maintenance, repair, and operations products. The company also offers installation services for flooring, water heaters, bath, garage doors, cabinets, cabinet makeovers, countertops, sheds, furnaces and central air systems, and windows.
Read More - Current Price
- $392.60
- Consensus Rating
- Moderate Buy
- Ratings Breakdown
- 23 Buy Ratings, 6 Hold Ratings, 1 Sell Ratings.
- Consensus Price Target
- $426.00 (8.5% Upside)
#2 - D.R. Horton (NYSE:DHI)
Right now investing in the stock of a homebuilder may seem suicidal. Who’s going to buy a home when they can’t leave the one they’re in now. Fair enough. However the argument for a stock like D.R. Horton (NYSE:DHI) is that wise investors play the long game. And here’s what we know.
When the Fed first cut interest rates in July, prospective home buyers largely shrugged it off. But when they cut rates again, it started having an impact. Anecdotally, in my small area of the country, many landlords were finding it difficult to find tenants. And realtors were busy around the holidays. Really busy.
And when we come out of this pandemic, and we will, prospective home buyers will continue to buy and build new homes. Investors seem to believe the same. DHI stock was up nearly 70% on a year-over-year basis at the end of January. The stock plunged by that amount, and more, as the news of the Covid-19 pandemic broke.
However, as the news cycle has begun to change, so have the prospects for D.R. Horton. Yes, cancellations are up. And yes, the company has withdrawn guidance based on uncertainty surrounding the impact of the virus. But lower interest rates will keep mortgage rates low and that should be a good sign for the company later in 2020 and beyond.
About D.R. Horton
D.R. Horton, Inc operates as a homebuilding company in East, North, Southeast, South Central, Southwest, and Northwest regions in the United States. It engages in the acquisition and development of land; and construction and sale of residential homes in 118 markets across 33 states under the names of D.R.
Read More - Current Price
- $139.61
- Consensus Rating
- Hold
- Ratings Breakdown
- 7 Buy Ratings, 7 Hold Ratings, 2 Sell Ratings.
- Consensus Price Target
- $179.60 (28.6% Upside)
#3 - Kellogg (NYSE:K)
Dividend stocks tend to perform well as interest rates decline. Value and income investors typically flee bonds and are looking for a return wherever they can get it. That makes stocks like Kellogg (NYSE:K) very attractive. The company has increased its dividend for the last 15 years (the last increase was issued in July 2019).
In addition to offering investors an attractive, and reliable, dividend, the company was offering some nice growth potential before the Covid-19 outbreak and subsequent social distancing guidelines. In the face of declining cereal sales, the company has put an emphasis on its snack foods. And when it comes to snack foods, Kellogg’s has a powerful quintet of brand names (Pop-Tarts, RXBAR, Pringles, Rice Krispies Treats, Cheez-It) that account for 75% of the company’s total snack sales.
Kellogg’s is also moving into the meatless product category with a soy-based line of products know as “Incogmeato”. And, Kellogg was also showing growth in emerging markets. And again, all of this was prior to the imposed social distancing guidelines.
With many Americans limited to only going out of their house to get groceries, it puts Kellogg’s in a good position. It will be interesting to see if the company gets a bump in sales into its core cereal products, as well as the snack foods that many families will find essential as they are confined in their homes.
Kellogg stock is down about 5% in 2020, but is up nearly 10% in the last 12 months. In its last earnings report, Kellogg’s beat analysts’ expectations for earnings and revenue. It’s likely that the company will enjoy a similar beat for the first quarter report which is scheduled for the end of April.
About Kellanova
Kellanova, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and markets snacks and convenience foods in North America, Europe, Latin America, the Asia Pacific, the Middle East, Australia, and Africa. Its principal products include crackers, crisps, savory snacks, toaster pastries, cereal bars, granola bars and bites, ready-to-eat cereals, frozen waffles, veggie foods, and noodles.
Read More - Current Price
- $80.50
- Consensus Rating
- Hold
- Ratings Breakdown
- 1 Buy Ratings, 14 Hold Ratings, 0 Sell Ratings.
- Consensus Price Target
- $76.35 (5.2% Downside)
#4 - American Electric Power (NASDAQ:AEP)
Typically, utilities line American Electric Power (NYSE:AEP) are not the first stocks to come to mind in the context of falling interest rates. After all, when the dollar gets weaker, it raises the cost of energy and commodities.
But therein lies the beauty of the situation for investors in AEP. Because the company is a utility, it generally operates as a monopoly, or at worst a duopoly, in the markets it services. That means it can pass along rate increases to its consumers without disruption.
However, these are far from normal times. The intense social distancing measures being undertaken throughout the country is having a negative effect on utility usage. And that is having an effect on AEP stock. Since the middle of February, the stock has dropped 20% and is down nearly 15% in 2020.
Ultimately this decline in demand will be temporary. Slowly but surely businesses will reopen. And as they do, electricity use will begin to normalize. There is no question that there is considerable debate over when the United States will be open for business. And that makes it hard to make a prediction about the short-term outlook for the stock. The truth is the company may have a challenging 2020, but investors can capture a nice dividend for their trouble. Over the long haul, AEP looks like a well-run company that is a sound investment in any market.
Stock #6 just crossed over both its 50-and 200-day moving averages, which is a bullish sign
About American Electric Power
American Electric Power Company, Inc, an electric public utility holding company, engages in the generation, transmission, and distribution of electricity for sale to retail and wholesale customers in the United States. It operates through Vertically Integrated Utilities, Transmission and Distribution Utilities, AEP Transmission Holdco, and Generation & Marketing segments.
Read More - Current Price
- $92.75
- Consensus Rating
- Hold
- Ratings Breakdown
- 4 Buy Ratings, 9 Hold Ratings, 2 Sell Ratings.
- Consensus Price Target
- $97.13 (4.7% Upside)
#5 - Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC)
Arguably, betting on Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC) is not for the risk-averse investor. Banks and other financial stocks are often the big losers when interest rates decline. But Wells Fargo is trading at levels that may have become too low to simply ignore out of hand.
First the bad news. The company’s stock hit the undeniably bearish “death cross” technical signal. On March 5, the 50-day moving average of WFC stock crossed below its 200-day moving average. And sure enough, the stock price fell.
But the stock is trying to find a base. And with the newly signed stimulus bill, Wells Fargo may have an opportunity. In 2018, the Federal Reserve imposed growth limits on Wells Fargo as punishment for the revelation that the company had opened millions of fake accounts and used those accounts to charge customers unnecessary mortgage fees or for auto insurance.
But, as Emily Fitter reported in the New York Times, with so many small business owners filing requests to get a part of the stimulus money, the Fed is considering lifting those sanctions to make it easier for the bank to lend. Although this would be likely a temporary truce, it would give the bank a chance to establish credibility.
The scandal is far from behind the bank. This is still a risky stock to buy, but trading at around 7x earnings, it is a cheap stock. And with a dividend yield that is currently at 6.83%, investors do get some shelter from the risk they accept.
About Wells Fargo & Company
Wells Fargo & Company, a financial services company, provides diversified banking, investment, mortgage, and consumer and commercial finance products and services in the United States and internationally. The company operates through four segments: Consumer Banking and Lending; Commercial Banking; Corporate and Investment Banking; and Wealth and Investment Management.
Read More - Current Price
- $70.34
- Consensus Rating
- Moderate Buy
- Ratings Breakdown
- 10 Buy Ratings, 12 Hold Ratings, 0 Sell Ratings.
- Consensus Price Target
- $67.49 (4.1% Downside)
#6 - AngloGold Ashanti (NYSE:AU)
Gold is the ultimate safe-haven asset. When the Fed lowers rates, it has a destructive effect on the U.S. dollar. By destructive, it means that it normally has an inflationary affect (i.e. the dollar doesn’t buy what it used to).
However, these are strange times. The United States has just introduced $6 trillion of new stimulus (i.e. money created out of thin air) into our economy. But the U.S. economy was arguably the healthiest of all economies heading into the crisis. As a result, foreign investors are buying U.S. treasuries and propping up the dollar. We can’t destroy the currency if we wanted to. And the Fed can’t seem to get the inflation it seems to want so badly.
The common response to lower interest rates is for investors to flock to gold. But owning physical gold can be tricky. And right now, getting your hand on some actual bullion may take some time. That’s where a stock like AngloGold Ashanti (NYSE:AU) comes in. The stock is up over 40% in the last 12 months. And with interest rates likely to remain low for a considerable time, the stock should have a nice runway for growth.
The stock just crossed over both its 50- and 200-day moving averages, which is a bullish sign for the stock.
About AngloGold Ashanti
AngloGold Ashanti plc operates as a gold mining company in Africa, Australia, and the Americas. The company primarily explores for gold, as well as produces silver and sulphuric acid as by-products. Its flagship property is a 100% owned Geita mine located in the Lake Victoria goldfields of the Mwanza region in north-western Tanzania.
Read More - Current Price
- $23.90
- Consensus Rating
- Moderate Buy
- Ratings Breakdown
- 4 Buy Ratings, 1 Hold Ratings, 1 Sell Ratings.
- Consensus Price Target
- $31.75 (32.8% Upside)
It may not seem like it, but the fundamentals of the economy still apply. When interest rates are low, certain stocks and sectors tend to outperform. But these are interesting times. Social distancing will change our economy. It may change the growing bias against homeownership. It will definitely be an additional catalyst for e-commerce.
And there are some stocks that have an opportunity to surprise investors with their performance.
When interest rates are lower, bond yields tend to decline as prices rise. And even as investors are trying to keep cash on the sideline, their cash becomes less valuable as interest rates fall.
For that reason, dividend stocks can be a safe haven because of the income they provide investors. A common denominator of all the stocks in this presentation is that they all pay a dividend. But each of the stocks in this presentation also has unique opportunities for growth. And ultimately, the total return of a stock should be an investor’s primary concern.
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