A Donald Trump presidency is likely to bring with it significant tariff enforcement. The president-elect campaigned for higher—and perhaps even universal—tariffs. And after a strong post-election rally, investors are starting to reconsider what tariffs may mean for their portfolios.
However, the precise impact of the tariffs is unknown because the depth and breadth of the tariffs are unknown. Candidates tend to speak in hyperbolic language that makes for easy-to-understand (if not always accurate) sound bites. Governing is another matter altogether. As it relates to tariffs, it's helpful to look at how Trump used them during his last term as president.
They were, as he has often said, a negotiating tactic. If that's the case, then both the downside and benefits from the tariffs is likely overstated.
Nevertheless, there are likely to be winners and losers. In this special presentation, we look at seven stocks that are likely to rally due to the administration's tariff policies.
Quick Links
- Nucor
- Trex
- Carpenter Technology
- Carvana
- General Motors
- Intel
- Coinbase
#1 - Nucor (NYSE:NUE)
As it was in Trump’s first term, the steel industry is likely to be front and center in the tariff conversation.
Nucor Corp. (NYSE: NUE) was a significant beneficiary from the Trump administration’s 2018 tariffs and is likely to benefit again. However, the price increases enabled by the tariff policies contributed to the inflation that still permeates the economy—which may cause some members of Congress to push back.
But with the Republicans controlling both houses, and because of its importance to repairing our national infrastructure, it’s likely that Nucor will once again benefit from any policy that impacts the import of Chinese or Brazilian steel.
NUE stock is down 12.5% from its all-time high set in April 2024. If the tariff situation plays out as it might, this could be an attractive time to buy this Dividend King. Analysts give the stock a consensus price target of $190.57, which would be a 27% gain to go along with a dividend yield of 1.45%.
About Nucor
Nucor Corporation engages in manufacture and sale of steel and steel products. It operates in three segments: steel mills, steel products, and raw materials. The Steel Mills segment produces hot-rolled, cold-rolled, and galvanized sheet steel products; plate steel products; wide-flange beams, beam blanks, and H-piling and sheet piling structural steel products; bar steel products, such as blooms, billets, concrete reinforcing and merchant bars, and engineered special bar quality products; and engages in the steel trading and rebar distribution businesses.
Read More - Current Price
- $148.17
- Consensus Rating
- Moderate Buy
- Ratings Breakdown
- 6 Buy Ratings, 2 Hold Ratings, 0 Sell Ratings.
- Consensus Price Target
- $190.57 (28.6% Upside)
#2 - Trex (NYSE:TREX)
The thesis for buying Trex Company Inc. (NYSE: TREX) as part of a Trump trade is simple. If lumber prices are affected by tariffs, you’ll want to look for companies that give consumers a different option. Trex is the world leader in wood-alternative decking.
The U.S. decking and railing category is valued at $8 billion. Trex has 13% of that market, and it’s likely to get more. Aside from the cost of lumber, consumers are showing a preference for wood alternatives for maintenance and resale reasons, as well as for its impact on the environment.
Trex is a part of the larger housing trade, and the company believes that remodeling activity will get a lift from interest rate cuts. Even if those cuts don’t come at the rate that some homeowners expect, the trend is favorable.
TREX stock is up nearly 6% despite an earnings report that showed a year-over-year decline in revenue and earnings. It’s likely that analysts are rethinking the sell-off in the stock since April 2024. That bullish sentiment is reflected in a $79.94 consensus price target that gives investors 16% upside.
About Trex
Trex Company, Inc manufactures and distributes composite decking, railing, and outdoor living products and accessories for residential and commercial markets in the United States. It offers decking products and accessories under the names Trex Transcend, Trex Select, Trex Signature, Trex Transcend Lineage, and Trex Enhance for protection against fading, staining, mold, and scratching; Trex Hideaway, a hidden fastening system; and Trex DeckLighting, a LED dimmable deck lighting for use on posts, floors, and steps.
Read More - Current Price
- $68.88
- Consensus Rating
- Hold
- Ratings Breakdown
- 6 Buy Ratings, 10 Hold Ratings, 1 Sell Ratings.
- Consensus Price Target
- $79.94 (16.1% Upside)
#3 - Carpenter Technology (NYSE:CRS)
Another way to think about stocks that would benefit from Trump tariffs is to look at industries which are shortening supply chains. One of these is 3D printing, which is why it’s worth checking out Carpenter Technology Corp. (NYSE: CRS).
Carpenter is a specialty materials company that supplies steel products and offers 3D printing and additive manufacturing services. It serves various industries, including the defense and aerospace sectors, which are experiencing significant growth.
CRT stock is up more than 160% in 2024, but analysts are cooling on the stock after the company missed on the top line in its October 2024 earnings report. However, the number was higher year-over-year, which now makes it eight quarters that the company has accomplished that feat.
And the report, which was for the first quarter of the company’s 2025 fiscal year, showed that Carpenter had recorded the most profitable first quarter in the company’s history.
About Carpenter Technology
Carpenter Technology Corporation engages in the manufacture, fabrication, and distribution of specialty metals in the United States, Europe, the Asia Pacific, Mexico, Canada, and internationally. It operates in two segments, Specialty Alloys Operations and Performance Engineered Products. The company offers specialty alloys, including titanium alloys, powder metals, stainless steels, alloy steels, and tool steels, as well as additives, and metal powders and parts.
Read More - Current Price
- $180.73
- Consensus Rating
- Moderate Buy
- Ratings Breakdown
- 4 Buy Ratings, 0 Hold Ratings, 1 Sell Ratings.
- Consensus Price Target
- $139.60 (22.8% Downside)
#4 - Carvana (NYSE:CVNA)
The automotive sector will be one of the most heavily affected by tariffs. In this report, we give you two stocks to consider. The first is Carvana Co. (NYSE: CVNA). The stock is up 367% in 2024, making it one of the best-performing stocks.
The company is benefiting from two trends. First, new car prices remain out of range for many consumers. As a result, used cars have become a more attractive option, offering a rare area of financial relief for buyers. Then you consider that the company’s e-commerce model allows consumers to buy and sell without having to engage in the typical car-buying process, which investors find inefficient and outdated.
This is a $40 billion market and Carvana has only about 1% of it. It’s also important to note that the strong stock price growth correlates with year-over-year growth in revenue and earnings. This growth is happening before rate cuts start. With the Federal Reserve likely to continue lowering rates, Carvana is well positioned for further upside.
About Carvana
Carvana Co, together with its subsidiaries, operates an e-commerce platform for buying and selling used cars in the United States. Its platform allows customers to research and identify a vehicle; inspect it using company's 360-degree vehicle imaging technology; obtain financing and warranty coverage; purchase the vehicle; and schedule delivery or pick-up from their desktop or mobile devices.
Read More - Current Price
- $244.38
- Consensus Rating
- Hold
- Ratings Breakdown
- 8 Buy Ratings, 11 Hold Ratings, 0 Sell Ratings.
- Consensus Price Target
- $217.71 (10.9% Downside)
#5 - General Motors (NYSE:GM)
General Motors Inc. (NYSE: GM) is a more direct play on the expected growth in the domestic auto industry. Trump has made no secret of his intention to protect U.S. automakers from the threat posed by foreign competition. The objective is not only to continue making Chinese cars more expensive in the United States but also to make it easier for GM to sell into China and other countries.
In a challenging industry, GM has taken steps to “right-size” its inventory. That makes the company competitive in the types of internal combustion engine (ICE) cars that consumers prefer (i.e. trucks and SUVs) while also advancing its efforts in electric vehicles (EVs) and autonomous driving technology.
GM stock is up 53% in 2024, which extends the run in the stock that began in 2023. And with a forward price to earnings of 5.2x, General Motors is offering value that may be too good to pass up.
About General Motors
General Motors Company designs, builds, and sells trucks, crossovers, cars, and automobile parts; and provide software-enabled services and subscriptions worldwide. The company operates through GM North America, GM International, Cruise, and GM Financial segments. It markets its vehicles primarily under the Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC, Baojun, and Wuling brand names.
Read More - Current Price
- $54.88
- Consensus Rating
- Hold
- Ratings Breakdown
- 11 Buy Ratings, 6 Hold Ratings, 4 Sell Ratings.
- Consensus Price Target
- $56.92 (3.7% Upside)
#6 - Intel (NASDAQ:INTC)
Intel Corp. (NASDAQ: INTC) may seem like an odd choice as a Trump tariff winner. The stock is down more than 50% in 2024, and the largest drop has come since the company’s third quarter earnings report that showed a significant miss on the bottom line.
Intel was one of the winners of the CHIPS Act and was awarded $3 billion to build four foundries in the United States. That will make the company’s total award $11.4 billion. The new money is expected to start by the end of 2024.
That can’t come too soon for a company that has several encouraging launches in 2025 in addition to a deal with Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN). The stock has plenty of risks, including the company’s own history of not delivering on expectations. But if you’re looking for a “Made in America” play, INTC stock may be a name to watch.
About Intel
Intel Corporation designs, develops, manufactures, markets, and sells computing and related products and services worldwide. It operates through Client Computing Group, Data Center and AI, Network and Edge, Mobileye, and Intel Foundry Services segments. The company's products portfolio comprises central processing units and chipsets, system-on-chips (SoCs), and multichip packages; mobile and desktop processors; hardware products comprising graphics processing units (GPUs), domain-specific accelerators, and field programmable gate arrays (FPGAs); and memory and storage, connectivity and networking, and other semiconductor products.
Read More - Current Price
- $24.01
- Consensus Rating
- Reduce
- Ratings Breakdown
- 1 Buy Ratings, 25 Hold Ratings, 5 Sell Ratings.
- Consensus Price Target
- $30.12 (25.4% Upside)
#7 - Coinbase (NASDAQ:COIN)
The only thing we know for sure about the Trump tariff policy is it will likely be disruptive to the U.S. dollar. Add to that rising bipartisan concern about the sustainability of the U.S. national debt and it’s not hard to understand why Bitcoin has surged to a new high. As of this writing, one Bitcoin was valued at over $93,000 which makes it, along with gold, one of the best-performing asset classes of 2024.
For many investors, investing directly in cryptocurrency is a non-starter. But Coinbase Global Inc. (NASDAQ: COIN) is a way to get exposure to this sector. And if Donald Trump makes good on his promise to establish a national Bitcoin reserve, you’ll want to at least consider a position in one of the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchanges.
COIN stock is up more than 86% in 2024 and most of those gains have come since September when the market began to forecast a Trump win. Significantly, short interest in COIN stock is down about 10% in the month ending November 19 and more institutional investors are becoming buyers.
About Coinbase Global
Coinbase Global, Inc provides financial infrastructure and technology for the crypto economy in the United States and internationally. The company offers the primary financial account in the crypto economy for consumers; and a marketplace with a pool of liquidity for transacting in crypto assets for institutions.
Read More - Current Price
- $320.01
- Consensus Rating
- Hold
- Ratings Breakdown
- 10 Buy Ratings, 9 Hold Ratings, 1 Sell Ratings.
- Consensus Price Target
- $251.00 (21.6% Downside)
Many long-term investors aren't terribly concerned about what Trump's tariff policy looks like. So it's important to note that many of the stocks on this list are cyclical with or without a Trump presidency. Therefore, these may be more attractive targets for traders.
That said, this is a trader's market. Buy-and-hold is always a viable strategy, but the larger gains from the Trump tariffs will be made by the nimble investors who have the risk tolerance to ride out short-term volatility.
MarketBeat doesn't take sides in the political arena (there's money to be made either way). But we do provide tools to help investors at whatever stage they are in their investing journey. Many of these tools are free, but one that is available to All-Access members is our Idea Engine.
The Idea Engine combines over two dozen algorithmic factors and technical indicators to identify stocks that are poised for near-term growth. It's a good place to start your own research. And if you're new to picking and/or trading stocks, this is an ideal way to start testing out strategies.
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