Inflation is an unavoidable consequence of a market-based economy. In the best case, inflation is fueled by rising consumer demand, which itself is triggered by rising wages. That's why the Federal Reserve sets a target rate of 2% inflation. The theory is a little inflation can be helpful to an economy.
But for most Americans, inflation has become a little like that annoying dinner guest who has overstayed their welcome. They don't want it to go away angry; they just want it to go away.
Many analysts will tell you that inflation has been lower since reaching 40-year highs in 2022. But this is a case where precise language matters.
You see, the Federal Reserve's 2% target rate is measuring the rate of inflation. That means the Fed wants inflation. Just not too much.
So when you hear that the inflation rate is around 3%, prices are going up at a faster rate than the Federal Reserve would prefer. That's tough for consumers and for corporate profits.
But as investors, you know that some stocks do very well in times of inflation. That's the focus of this special presentation. We've identified seven stocks from companies that make products consumers can't do without.
Quick Links
- Walmart
- Occidental Petroleum
- Eli Lilly
- Merck & Co.
- Mondelez International
- McCormick & Co.
- Kimberly-Clark
#1 - Walmart (NYSE:WMT)
In the five years ending January 17, 2025, Walmart Inc. (NYSE: WMT) stock has delivered a total return of 158.61%. That’s 93% higher than the S&P 500 has delivered over that same period.
The reason for Walmart’s performance as a defensive stock is easy to see. The company continues to deliver for their core consumer with everyday low prices to help them buy their staple items. The retailer is also showing an ability to capture the attention of higher net-worth consumers who are shopping at the retailer to make their discretionary dollars last longer.
But this isn’t just a demand story. Walmart is embracing the digital economy via its Walmart+ app that is helping the company become a significant player in e-commerce. And to help facilitate that transition, Walmart is embracing automation and artificial intelligence (AI) to streamline its operations.
Another way that WMT stock can help you profit from inflation is via its growing dividend. Walmart is a Dividend King that as of January 2025 has increased its dividend for 52 consecutive years.
About Walmart
Walmart Inc engages in the operation of retail, wholesale, other units, and eCommerce worldwide. The company operates through three segments: Walmart U.S., Walmart International, and Sam's Club. It operates supercenters, supermarkets, hypermarkets, warehouse clubs, cash and carry stores, and discount stores under Walmart and Walmart Neighborhood Market brands; membership-only warehouse clubs; ecommerce websites, such as walmart.com.mx, walmart.ca, flipkart.com, PhonePe and other sites; and mobile commerce applications.
Read More - Current Price
- $93.05
- Consensus Rating
- Moderate Buy
- Ratings Breakdown
- 29 Buy Ratings, 2 Hold Ratings, 0 Sell Ratings.
- Consensus Price Target
- $94.69 (1.8% Upside)
#2 - Occidental Petroleum (NYSE:OXY)
If inflation does trend higher, oil prices will be a likely cause. Despite oil prices being range bound since 2022, many analysts still expect that crude oil prices will reach or exceed $100 between 2025 and 2030. A resurgent global economy along with geopolitical concerns are cited as the reasons that will drive global demand.
That means oil stocks should be on your radar and Occidental Petroleum Co. (NYSE: OXY) is one of top names to consider. In addition to the likelihood for higher oil prices, one reason to consider OXY stock is the company’s strong cash flow which has accelerated even with oil prices trading in a distinct range. Occidental has already shown investors its willingness to use that cash flow to reward shareholders in the form of share repurchases.
That’s undoubtedly caught the attention of Warren Buffett who has made Occidental Petroleum one of his preferred stocks over the last five years. And OXY stock has become more attractive as a defensive play since it began increasing its dividend after cutting it sharply in 2020.
About Occidental Petroleum
Occidental Petroleum Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the acquisition, exploration, and development of oil and gas properties in the United States, the Middle East, and North Africa. It operates through three segments: Oil and Gas, Chemical, and Midstream and Marketing. The company's Oil and Gas segment explores for, develops, and produces oil and condensate, natural gas liquids (NGLs), and natural gas.
Read More - Current Price
- $50.57
- Consensus Rating
- Hold
- Ratings Breakdown
- 7 Buy Ratings, 13 Hold Ratings, 1 Sell Ratings.
- Consensus Price Target
- $62.19 (23.0% Upside)
#3 - Eli Lilly (NYSE:LLY)
Pharmaceutical stocks are solid defensive stocks at any time. However, the case for Eli Lilly and Company (NYSE: LLY) has an additional tailwind. That comes from the company’s blockbuster products in the GLP-1 arena, Mounjaro and Zepbound.
Mounjaro is a groundbreaking treatment for Type-2 diabetes and Zepbound is Lilly’s entry into the booming market for obesity treatment. Individuals may cut back on many things if inflation heats up, but they will always make room for their prescriptions. That’s particularly true of both Mounjaro and Zepbound, which patients need to continue taking to maintain the benefits.
Through the third quarter of the company’s 2024 fiscal year, Eli Lilly has generated a non-GAAP gross margin of 83%, which is higher than the sector average. And the company has a deep pipeline of products, including in the critical area of oncology, that will continue to help the company grow revenue and earnings well into the future. LLY stock also pays a dividend, which it has increased for 11 consecutive years as of January 2025.
About Eli Lilly and Company
Eli Lilly and Company discovers, develops, and markets human pharmaceuticals worldwide. The company offers Basaglar, Humalog, Humalog Mix 75/25, Humalog U-100, Humalog U-200, Humalog Mix 50/50, insulin lispro, insulin lispro protamine, insulin lispro mix 75/25, Humulin, Humulin 70/30, Humulin N, Humulin R, and Humulin U-500 for diabetes; Jardiance, Mounjaro, and Trulicity for type 2 diabetes; and Zepbound for obesity.
Read More - Current Price
- $741.98
- Consensus Rating
- Moderate Buy
- Ratings Breakdown
- 17 Buy Ratings, 4 Hold Ratings, 0 Sell Ratings.
- Consensus Price Target
- $1,002.22 (35.1% Upside)
#4 - Merck & Co. (NYSE:MRK)
Merck & Co. Inc. (NYSE: MRK) is another inflation-fighting stock in the pharmaceutical sector. The bullish narrative with Merck centers around its oncology portfolio and its flagship drug, Keytruda which continues to be approved for earlier stage cancers and is experiencing robust global demand from metastatic indications.
However, Keytruda is only one drug in the company’s extensive oncology portfolio. That portfolio is supposed to grow from $10 billion in 2023 to over $20 billion by 2030.
Beyond oncology, Merck has a solid track record of developing innovative medicines covering vaccines, infectious diseases, immunology, and other unmet medical needs. The company has a proven track record of bringing drugs to market while being able to produce solid returns for shareholders. One element of those returns is a dividend that yields over 3.3% in January 2025, has an average annual growth rate of around 5%, and has been increasing for 14 consecutive years.
About Merck & Co., Inc.
Merck & Co, Inc is a health care company, which engages in the provision of health solutions through its prescription medicines, vaccines, biologic therapies, animal health, and consumer care products. It operates through the following segments: Pharmaceutical, Animal Health, and Other. The Pharmaceutical segment includes human health pharmaceutical and vaccine products.
Read More - Current Price
- $96.18
- Consensus Rating
- Moderate Buy
- Ratings Breakdown
- 12 Buy Ratings, 8 Hold Ratings, 1 Sell Ratings.
- Consensus Price Target
- $123.00 (27.9% Upside)
#5 - Mondelez International (NASDAQ:MDLZ)
Next up on this list of inflation-resistant stocks is Mondelez International Inc. (NASDAQ: MDLZ). This is more than an “everybody loves chocolate” story, although Mondelez is the parent company of both Cadbury and Toblerone.
Actually, it’s more the opposite. One reason investors should be bullish on Mondelez is that its portfolio of products is less dependent on cocoa prices when compared to The Hershey Company (NYSE: HSY) which Mondelez made an offer to acquire in 2024.
The company sells its products in over 150 countries worldwide. Its portfolio includes some of the best-loved consumer names such as Oreo’s, Ritz crackers and CLIF bars. This is part of a go-to-market strategy laid out by Mondelez’s CEO that includes a stable of iconic brands, which give the company pricing power.
And Mondelez uses its earnings to reward shareholders through share buybacks and a dividend that has increased for 13 consecutive years as of January 2025.
About Mondelez International
Mondelez International, Inc, through its subsidiaries, manufactures, markets, and sells snack food and beverage products in the Latin America, North America, Asia, the Middle East, Africa, and Europe. It provides biscuits and baked snacks, including cookies, crackers, salted snacks, snack bars, and cakes and pastries; chocolates; and gums and candies, as well as various cheese and grocery, and powdered beverage products.
Read More - Current Price
- $57.60
- Consensus Rating
- Moderate Buy
- Ratings Breakdown
- 12 Buy Ratings, 4 Hold Ratings, 0 Sell Ratings.
- Consensus Price Target
- $74.13 (28.7% Upside)
#6 - McCormick & Co. (NYSE:MKC)
Food is one area where consumers tend to feel inflation directly. It will also be one of the last areas for inflation to ease its grip. But McCormick & Company Inc. (NYSE: MKC) remains an attractive stock to consider regardless of the direction inflation takes.
The reason is that “food” doesn’t just mean food you prepare at home. Since 2022, inflation-weary consumers have been in a tug-of-war between eating out versus eating at home. At first, it didn’t matter as consumers were just ready to get back to their pre-pandemic routine. But restaurants have raised their prices, and many consumers are swiftly making the pivot back to a home-cooked meal.
McCormick benefited from this trend in 2020 as consumers had to restock their neglected spice drawers. And that doesn’t even count the company’s recent acquisitions, which have brought names like Frank’s Red Hot and Cholula under its umbrella.
MKC stock is a Dividend Aristocrat, having increased its dividend for 38 consecutive years as of January 2025. That dividend currently has a yield of 2.45%.
About McCormick & Company, Incorporated
McCormick & Co, Inc engages in the manufacturing, marketing, and distribution of spices, seasoning mixes, condiments, and other flavorful products to retail outlets, food manufacturers, and foodservice businesses. It operates through the Consumer and Flavor Solutions segments. The Consumer segment sells spices, seasonings, condiments, and sauces.
Read More - Current Price
- $74.29
- Consensus Rating
- Moderate Buy
- Ratings Breakdown
- 5 Buy Ratings, 4 Hold Ratings, 1 Sell Ratings.
- Consensus Price Target
- $82.63 (11.2% Upside)
#7 - Kimberly-Clark (NYSE:KMB)
The last, but certainly not the least inflation-busting stock is consumer staples giant Kimberly-Clark Co. (NYSE: KMB). An oft-mentioned comment that bears repeating is that at any given time, you probably have several Kimberly-Clark products in your home. The brand’s portfolio is that broad-reaching.
And that portfolio, which includes names such as Huggies diapers and Kleenex tissues, comes with pricing power. That pricing power shows up on the company’s bottom line which has continued to show year-over-year growth despite the impact of inflation on consumers. Additionally, the company continues to increase its free cash flow and pay down its debt.
Those are the attributes of a “forever” stock, but it’s also one that investors can buy for growth in the coming years. Investors are also buying a Dividend King that currently has a yield of 4.03%. Plus, as of January 2025, KMB stock trades at around 17.4 forward earnings which is a slight discount to the Consumer Staples sector average of 20.5x.
About Kimberly-Clark
Kimberly-Clark Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and markets personal care and consumer tissue products in the United States. It operates through three segments: Personal Care, Consumer Tissue, and K-C Professional. The company's Personal Care segment offers disposable diapers, training and youth pants, swimpants, baby wipes, feminine and incontinence care products, reusable underwear, and other related products under the Huggies, Pull-Ups, Little Swimmers, GoodNites, DryNites, Sweety, Kotex, U by Kotex, Intimus, Thinx, Poise, Depend, Plenitud, Softex, and other brand names.
Read More - Current Price
- $126.47
- Consensus Rating
- Hold
- Ratings Breakdown
- 5 Buy Ratings, 8 Hold Ratings, 2 Sell Ratings.
- Consensus Price Target
- $143.71 (13.6% Upside)
With many investors piling money into artificial intelligence (AI) stocks, buying defensive stocks may seem like you're missing an opportunity. To be clear, we're not advocating you ignore the growth possibilities that may come from AI.
However, if the rate of inflation remains above the Federal Reserve's preferred target of 2%, you'll want to position yourself in stocks that can provide a hedge against that inflation.
That's what defensive stocks do very well. Because consumers tend to buy the products made by these companies regardless of the state of the economy, the companies tend to have pricing power, which helps both their revenue and their profit.
That's why it could make sense for you to have some protection in your portfolio. Every investor needs to perform their own due diligence. But to get you started, we've made a brief case for why these defensive stocks are likely to rise even if the inflation rate stays above the Fed's target rate.
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