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Fed Raises Rates: 3 Stocks to Watch Newmont Mining, Walmart, AMC (Episode 47)

Fed Raises Rates: 3 Stocks to Watch Newmont Mining, Walmart, AMC (Episode 47)

Details Transcript Guests

Axel Merk, President and CIO of Merk Investments has three very different stocks he frames within the current market and economic conditions.

Stocks Mentioned in This Episode

Company	MarketRank™	Current Price	Dividend Yield	P/E Ratio
NEM Newmont	4.7578 of 5 stars	$43.11 +3.7%	2.32%	-28.36
WMT Walmart	4.8421 of 5 stars	$98.61 +1.1%	0.84%	40.47
AMC AMC Entertainment	3.661 of 5 stars	$3.15 -2.0%	N/A	-1.95
FDX FedEx	4.8178 of 5 stars	$269.39 -2.1%	2.05%	17.17

Compare These Stocks Add These Stocks to My Watchlist

Kate Stalter
Host

00:04

Hello. Hello. Welcome to this edition of The MarketBeat Podcast as always. I am your host, Kate Stalter today. We have a really timely look at three specific stocks with my guest Axel Merk. He is president and chief investment officer of Merk investments. Now today, Axel shares why gold miners are often among the first stocks to start rising in a market up trend, but also among the first to decline in a bear market. He also shares why a big retail name, one that you almost certainly own in your retirement accounts is a solid defensive play in the current market. And finally, he gives us his thoughts on one of those popular meme stocks that rocketed sky high last year, you remember those and how you should view its performance. Given the federal reserve series of rate hikes, lots of insights here. And at the end of the episode, Axel tells you how you can get access to his research. So you don't wanna miss that, give a listen to today's interview with Axel Merk. All right, today I am with Axel Merk, who is the president and chief investment officer of Merk in investments. And we are going to jump right into our discussion today, axle, and talk about the first stock that you are prepared to discuss, which is Newmont. This is the world's largest goldmine. So I see a few things I've identified, but tell me what your take on this is and why you find this stock interesting today. Sure.

Axel Merk
Guest

01:38

Well, Newmont is something worth discussing specifically because it is in the gold mining space as the kind of anybody who is investing in mining tends to know Newmont. And that really defines the dynamics of how the stock is trading as well. It tends to be one of the first ones on the way up when gold miners are popular to benefit from that. And then conversely, when people take some money out, it might doubt as well as the largest producer. It's a well-established mine. And then in the gold mining space, the one thing you keep in mind, the reason why people tend to invest in gold miners is because they wanna get gold with a kicker for them. Gold is kind of too boring. And when you invest in a gold minor, you obviously get operational challenges, but you also, at least in theory, get the leverage because the fixed costs ought be reasonably stable.

Axel Merk
Guest

02:28

The price of gold moves higher, and then you have potential for more earnings. Now, curve ball has been that a key input on the production. Side's, it's a huge part of the cost. And so costs have up and so forth is going further. The other thing to keep in mind is of course the gold mining space is not only a broad space, but these gold mines, they're not huge. And so even though the largest gold miners, the largest gold miner, hasn't really gotten bigger than the largest gold miner, 30, 40 years ago. And the reason is these mines get depleted. And so one of the opportunities is to go downstream trying because they have to acquire the smaller players at some point to stay the largest ones, except after last downturn, the investment community told them, Hey, you're spending too much money. And so there hasn't been the sort of merger activity that you've seen.

Axel Merk
Guest

03:18

And so instead, what we are likely to see in my view is you're gonna see mergers in the mid tier and then potentially compete with Newman at Merk. We actually is playing at the very low end of the spectrum, the small explorers. We like the ones that have little minds nearby, where Newman is already working because that's a potential acquisition target for them. And so when you go to the gold mining space, it is a space it's very volatile. So it's only for the speculatively inclined. And of course the, the macro environment we should touch on maybe as well, whether that's that's the best sort environment is, but yes, we are deeply EB in that space. And we tend to go downstream to the, the smaller players.

Kate Stalter
Host

03:54

Let me ask you something, as you were speaking, something that occurred to me about this, you know, how when equity markets are in a decline, people tend to often gravitate towards gold as the hard asset or gold bullion or something of that nature as a hedge against equities. Do you see people doing that with minors? Because I'm seeing that this stock is just declining along with the market. So it seems to be behaving a little bit differently. Do you see that as well?

Axel Merk
Guest

04:22

Well, two things, first of all, on the larger miners in the initial selloff, often everything gets sold. And the reason the miners at some point do well is what everybody's waiting for is that fed pivot, right? The late stage economic growth tends to be good for the, for gold and gold mining sector, because there's an anticipation that the federal reserve will start lower rates again, except of course we have a higher for longer fed. And the question is if and when the fed will pivot, in my view, they will pivot when the will start falling off. And so that's in mind. And then there's the one thing keep in mind, especially if you go downstream these exploration companies in particular, they constantly need money to advance their growth. And of course they have wonderful opportunities there, but at the same time, when credit conditions are tight, meaning money doesn't grow in trees anymore. They do have credit risk as well there. And so that's also something that holds them back. So if you invest in gold miners, you're really taking a position that at some point the federal reserve is going to pivot, but you don't know the exact timing. So you'd rather be early than late. And so that's the sort of thing to keep in mind when you buy something like Newman or even go downstream.

Kate Stalter
Host

05:32

Okay. So that's the macro case, but I'm looking specifically just at this company and seeing the revenue declining. So talk about that a little bit. What might be going on in that situation?

Axel Merk
Guest

05:44

Well, you of course have always unique characteristics, right? You've had supply issues. You've had COVID, you've had all kinds of things. Why, why you have bottlenecks and the production side. And so those are things and the company that's as large as human, the market tends to look over that they investors tend to look at that as a broader macro play. When a small exploration company has issues while it's often the death of these companies for these bigger companies. It's, if anything, it's an opportunity. I would argue though, that the company, as long as Newman, it is the bigger theme. That's more relevant because they tend to have good management and yes, you are dealing with real stuff like you're moving earth. So things happen. Machines break supplies are not there. People are sick, so real things happen. And so they it's the management's job to manage the expectations. And then we move on from there.

Kate Stalter
Host

06:37

You know, people tend to think about gold in terms of jewelry. You know, you walk into Jared or Cignet or one of these jewelry stores, and that's what people see, but who are the majority of the end customers of these businesses? Well,

Axel Merk
Guest

06:53

The quote unquote consumption of gold is as you point out, right, it's the consumer, it's a part of its industry. Now industry using gold is minimal compared to many other commodities. It's one of the reasons I like gold. It makes it much simpler to analyze. Then you have investors and central banks. And if I look at investors, which has become an increasing part over the years, I see three sort of investors. I see the, the investor who's concerned about the purchasing power of the dollar. I see the investor who invests in gold as a diversification because the longer term, very, very low to new zero correlation to equities. And then I see the speculator, the speculator loves a good ride. And I think we'll talk a memes about a meme stock later. And I'll touch on that a little bit more, what the speculator does.

Kate Stalter
Host

07:36

Okay. That sounds great. Let me ask you one more thing to wrap up on Newmont. That's got a pretty good dividend yield. Is that something else that seems to be attractive to investors at this point? That's maybe even keeping the stock from sinking a little bit lower than it might otherwise because people are attracted by that high yield.

Axel Merk
Guest

07:54

Well, you're closing the loop on what I said in the get go. They have been extremely disciplined, which means they have under invested. They have returned the money to shareholders. Now these companies do what their big investors tell them to sometimes a little bit too well, but it's not sustainable in the sense that they have to acquire more ounces. They have to acquire more soil so that they can keep up the production. And so if they are able to pay a good dividend, which they have been, it means they haven't been splurging money acquiring others. And the question is, how long can they sustain that? And my view is that at some point that has to change or they'll be beaten by somebody else who, and that's why I said, if they continue on this path, you may see more mergers in the mid space and that will eventually then be a threat to new one. And then they'll scramble. So it's one of the signs to me that, that we are not at the end of that cycle. So to be in that space because they continue to be very, very disciplined, typically at the end of a growth cycle, in the boom cycle, in the space, the, the discipline erodes. But as long as they're still disciplined, it means that there is still opportunity in this place because in some ways they have to become more aggressive at some point.

Kate Stalter
Host

09:03

Okay. And you just answered the question that I would've had about, I know we can't give recommendations here, but I think you just really framed it as how investors should be looking at this stock. And there's a number of factors they need to consider aren't there.

Axel Merk
Guest

09:16

Well, obviously, and especially this space, it really depends on the type of investor you are, right. There is the gold investment, which is the plain vanilla way of diversifying. There's the large minor to play the trend. And then it gets more speculative. Now, when you're more speculative, you gotta know what you're doing. And in particular you want to be very broad. You can't just buy one stock, Hey, have this exploration company, because some of them will hit it big, but many of them will fizzle out. So it's more of a venture capital thought of approach. It's certainly more for the speculative part of the portfolio. And that said mining itself in my view will get more attention, gold being one of them. But also obviously going beyond that, we wanted to have a green world, but in order to get a green world, we got a mine stuff. And so mining is going to continue to be very, very important.

Kate Stalter
Host

10:02

All right. Thank you for that perspective, axle. That's terrific. Let's move on to a name that is familiar to, I would say everybody listening to this, which is Walmart and, you know, years ago, I used to work with bill O'Neal at investors business daily. And I remember he would discuss that back. When he began as an investor, maybe in the 1970s, he would check the parking lots outside retail stores to see how busy they were. And I can attest to this. Walmart is still full there's one down the street from where I live. I go in there every so often, but I also know axle. They've had some issues with customers buying more non-discretionary items like food. I think grocery is where customers are continuing to focus now with inflation and so forth and fewer other items like furniture or household goods, or sort of more discretionary items. So what are you seeing right now in this stock?

Axel Merk
Guest

10:55

Well, when I see, when I look at Walmart or when an investor looks at Walmart, why do we consider it? Right? We typically consider it as a defensive play. You look at a company like Walmart and Walmart, obviously being the elephant biggest elephant in the room, they are because you'll think the economy may be slowing down. And if you're B listen, anywhere in the news that may ring home. Right? And so how do I play that? And is Walmart the right thing? And of course, as you point out, right, people buy food there and you have food inflation. And that tends to hurt the margins in companies like Walmart. Now, historically the worse economy is the better Walmart does because it means people at the, when the middle tier income spectrum might go, go shopping at Walmart, right? Whereas previously they went to target or whole foods.

Axel Merk
Guest

11:39

And so they tend to go downstream. That said part of the reason I mentioned this. So I think one can take a step back and think about, well, if I wanna play it defensively in the current environment, what is a defensive play? Because if you've opened your 401k recently, odds, eye has gone down, right? And that kind of gets me. We talked about the fed just briefly earlier, but we are really in an environment where we're gonna have lackluster growth and high inflation. Well, that's a stack inflationary type of environment and in a stagflationary environment. Uh, the last time we had that big time was from the late sixties, 30, early eighties. And I intentionally started a little bit before the seventies and extended to the eighties because the sort of environment that's rough because inflation is persistently high economic growth. Persistently sluggish can last for a long time.

Axel Merk
Guest

12:33

And the reason is that when you're hit with a supply shop, be that COVID be that Ukrainian war, the politically attractive reaction is bad for the economy. So when you write people checks and you don't have enough goods, well, you're gonna have a lot of money chasing those few goods. You're gonna get inflation when you introduce excess profit taxes. That again, that discourages increasing supply. And so if you look at the 1970s, what has worked well, it's been investing in the CPI. The problem is you cannot invest in the CPI, right? That's the consumer price index. And instead, and so because stocks haven't done well, even the defensive ones haven't done so well. And so what has happened is that net of inflation stocks have actually been a somewhat lousy deal. And that's very, very challenging, right? And so we've tried to address that by creating a speculation ETF, but, uh, that invests in tips mostly, but should you move from Walmart to something like tips and, uh, which one is the more defensive play?

Axel Merk
Guest

13:34

Because if you look at tips, they haven't done well this year, either. And by the way, when you invest in tips and many investors may not be fully aware of that, what you're really buying, you're locking in real interest rates. And so, and right now they're positive. So you're locking in, as we're speaking a little bit over 1% over 10 years or whatever it is historically, they're often you zero or negative. And so you could lock in a positive, real interest rate and it will move up as in, as the CPI is changing or now and adjust accordingly. So investor has to choose for themselves. Well, do I wanna have a defensive stock play like Walmart? Or do you wanna lock myself in with something like tips or a specialty solution, like ETF that we launched. And again, I don't have the answer for investors, but I'm throwing that out there because why is it that you wanna have Walmart in the first place?

Kate Stalter
Host

14:21

And that's where I was going with this. Does it depend on one's own investment philosophy? Say if a person, many of the folks listening to this show, for example, are more interested in stock investing than bond or fixed income investing, or even in ETFs in general. So is it a wise decision to look at an individual stock, like a Walmart or even a target that may have some similarities rather than kind of trying to go broad?

Axel Merk
Guest

14:49

Well, it really depends right on one's outlook. Historically stocks do well over the long term. If you look at the 1970s on an inflation adjustment basis, um, stocks didn't do all that. Great. Now one alternative is your old cash, right? I mean, there's a sexy stock, your favorite money market fund. Now there you are almost guaranteed to erode your purchasing power because it's not gonna keep up with inflation. So again, it depends on the sort of investor and risk appetite that one has. And the only thing I'm pointing out here is that a start like Walmart, even though it is a defensive play will not issue in any form of fashion that you're not gonna lose money because that is quite possible as well. Even if it is quote unquote defensive. Well,

Kate Stalter
Host

15:29

Yeah, and I've been looking at Walmart's chart and it's been correcting since April had a nice little rally in the past three months, but it's still well off its prior high. And frankly, axle, it hasn't done much since late 2020. I mean, it participated in that whole kinda second half of the year of 2020 rally. But since then, it really fizzled out before the broader market did. So what are investors to make of that?

Axel Merk
Guest

15:56

Well, that's a feature rather than a bug, right? I mean, that's what you call defensive. That's the one thing, right? The investors often neglect. Why are you buying a stock? If you haul it for the visitation, if you call it defensively, then when the world is a mess and it doesn't do so much, that's not necessarily a bad thing. I hear. We're gonna talk about meme stock here in a second where the exact opposite. Right. But it is the point of this is right to have a little discussion and investors should think about why is it that they're investing in the first place? And in that sense, the one thing I like to mention here, I can't give specific investment advice, but it's important to have a process. It's important to think about why are you buying what you are buying? Because if you don't have that every day, the news will rock you in some way or the other.

Axel Merk
Guest

16:38

And you bought something yesterday. You'll sell it today. Well, think about why you're holding it. And then of course you can test a theory and it doesn't mean you have to be stopped on and hold it until whatever. Right. But have a process as to why are you doing what you're doing? And then you can cross check it. And Walmart, I would discourage anybody to buy it because of the potential to be a tenbagger right, to be a huge speculative thing. And so when you have a huge mess out there and something is kind of du, that's not the end of the world,

Kate Stalter
Host

17:06

Right. And of course Walmart being Walmart, it is widely held by institutions. That's highly unlikely to change. So is that maybe also some sort of comfort level in quotes that investors can take from a widely held institutional stock like

Axel Merk
Guest

17:23

That? Yes, certainly. That's an aspect, just a broader comment on institutional ownership. It's not just you. I, whatever channel you're turning on that people say, oh my God is an uncertain environment. Institutions feel the same thing, right? The, the way inflation is gonna pan out, you can give many rational arguments as to which way it's gonna go. My own view is it's not gonna be linear. It's gonna be choppy and confusing, but institutional investors feel the same way. And so institutional investors have used much less leverage have been much more defensive than they have been otherwise, which may favor a stock like Walmart, of course, because that's also defensive play and they tend to be doing broader asset allocations, but you have. And part of the reason, I mean, we saw the market nose dive the other day and the VIX index didn't even go above 30. Part of that is because a lot of people have taken back their risk exposure and saying, well, let's just see how this plays out. I do have an equity allocation and institutions kind of tend to be TA rigid with that and then individual investors, but they wanna just state the course and, and write this out. Makes

Kate Stalter
Host

18:25

A lot of sense. Yeah. And thank you for framing this stock within the rubric of a defensive allocation, because that makes a lot of sense. And I think a lot of investors tend to not think about stocks that way they think about is this going to be a 10 bagger, but not thinking about what is a defensive play going to do for their overall portfolio. You,

18:49

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Kate Stalter
Host

19:49

All right, we have for the last one here, we've been teasing this axle, the meme stock, and this is just a crazy one. And then everybody who remembers the meme stock frenzy, I think that was probably the beginning of 2021. AMC was one of those. Now, if you go back and look at the earnings history of this, which I did, it was actually kind of tenuous even before 2020. I mean, that was a huge monster loss for them. They lost $16 and 15 cents per share that year, but this was kind of a Rocky one, even before that. So what are you seeing in this particular name?

Axel Merk
Guest

20:26

I see the essence of speculation in that name. And that's why I like to contrast that with mall like mall is kind of the boring thing you wanna have. The AMC stock is kind of the exciting thing you wanna have now, except I got little bad news for you and I'm not gonna give specific recommendation, but the whole point of the Fed's exercise is to tighten financial conditions, to make it painful to the speculator institutions are well served to be more defensive. And so the fed is not gonna look at AMC and saying, we're gonna stop when AMC is having trouble, but AMC is gonna be exactly the sort of thing where if you want it, quote unquote, tighten financial conditions. If you wanna slow economic growth, which right away is one way, but not the best way to address the supply shock, doesn't really fix it.

Axel Merk
Guest

21:14

But it's you gotta look out the one to do what Warren buffet does. You gotta see who is swimming naked, right? And that means you have to discourage speculation to see those naked swimmers. And I'm not suggesting that necessarily AMC is really entirely naked, but they have attracted the speculator and to close the loop there with what we talked about earlier on the gold miners, historically, the gold miners, especially the junior ones, attracted a lot of speculators. Those folks have gone to digital assets. Those stocks have gone to the meme, stocks, AMC being one of them. And we have to see pain in that segment much more even that we see now before the fed can declare victory. And obviously they're focused on inflation, but like to remind people on the NASDAQ 2000, right? We had a grinding process that was very, very long, but we need to have an extended period of tighter conditions.

Axel Merk
Guest

22:09

And by the way, the fed will not stop until some wheels fall off. The wheels falling off at AMC will not the fed to stop the wheels falling off at some companies that the so-called junk bond funded companies, that's not gonna stop. What will have the feds stop is when there's a contagion risk. When there's a contagion to main street, when there's a contagion and I'm not suggesting it has to go to all the way to Walmart, but when financing conditions for the big boys are threatened, that's when they have gone too far. And since they're the entire for longer camp, then we don't know when it happened. It could happen next week. It could happen in several months, but for now the fed is on this hire for longer train. And they'll stay on that until things are gonna be more troublesome. Now, if you only wanna look at one thing, the VIX index is probably a good reference, but the VIX is just stocks.

Axel Merk
Guest

22:58

And I know we are focused on stocks, but stocks in themselves being turbulent or falling is not gonna get the fed to stop. What they care about is the financial system they care about. And the other thing to watch is if they have to come to the rescue of other countries, providing them with liquidity and so forth. So you wanna watch those big factors. And then when that's all done, you wanna regroup because the meme start of tomorrow is gonna be a different one from today. So I'm not giving you too rosy and outlook here. it's

Kate Stalter
Host

23:28

No, no, I think it's very realistic. And as you were speaking, I wanna come back to a question about AMC, but I wanna follow up on what you were just saying kind of about what would make the fed stop. And I know we did get a warning from FedEx just the other day about conditions slowing down in Asia and a couple other regions, more so than in the us. But nonetheless, is that the kind of thing that could investors maybe should pay a little bit of attention to when they're formulating their next strategy?

Axel Merk
Guest

23:58

Absolutely. The cannery coal mine is the company like FedEx when they have issues and the rest of the world is doing less well than in the us. Again, the fed is more worried about the us, but it's those kinds. And they are just, uh, historically there is variation, but in our analysis, the bottom in the stock market tends to be about two thirds down a recession. And, uh, while there's been a lot of political haha about whether we are in a recession or not, if you just look at historically, then it's the quote unquote official recession, which is a comedy deciding retroactively based on what this comedy is looking at. We have not had a recession yet. You may feel like a recession, but not according to their standards, which to me means we are not in the bottom of the stock market because we will get a recession. The fed needs us to have a recession and we are certainly not two thirds through on the way of the recession. And so from that, have your yellow flags open. And if your stock investor in it for the long run and don't wanna time the markets on some elusive by all means, uh, state of course, but in our analysis, we are not in the bottom of the current volatility.

Kate Stalter
Host

25:04

Okay. I like that. I appreciate that. Not only a forecast, but framing it in what is going on globally and with the fed, let's wrap up here with AMC. One more question, and it's kind of a, a broad question axle about speculative investments. And this may seem kind of silly on the surface, but how do investors know whether they're getting into something that's more speculative versus something that could be either just defensive or cyclical? How do you kind of make that

Axel Merk
Guest

25:34

Judgment? Well, sometimes it's obvious, but more often than not, it is not right. I mean, if you get it on Reddi and everybody, and that dog says, Hey, yes, and sold my house to buy this mean stock, right then that is clearly speculative. Right? Often it's much fine at the, the print. And that's why I went earlier and said, have a process, right? Have a process of how you find your investments. You can question your process if you're perfectly good at flipping mem stock, by all means, be my guest, if you can afford it. Right. But if your process is to be diversified, then don't get your next stock tip on Reddit and do it right. Stick the course, think about why you're buying something. And when you buy something, think about when you're gonna sell it as well. Try to have that in mind already. When is it that you might wanna get out of the stock as well?

Kate Stalter
Host

26:19

Great advice there. Thank you so much. Hey, Axel. Really enjoyed this conversation. I think the listeners probably got a lot from this as well. And how do they get a hold of you? And I know you've got some reports that people can also download. So tell us about that.

Axel Merk
Guest

26:32

So a few things to stay in touch with me on Twitter, I'm at Axel Merk. That's really how you get me UNFI that live data , whatever economic data come in or something happening, whatever it may be, then come to our website, Merk investments.com. That's really our gateway to go anywhere. We do manage about a billion in gold gold mining. We launch the Merc, deflation ETF inmate. We do some other things beyond that. You can use that gateway to learn more about it. We do publish research reports, a a monthly Chatbook on the equity market where we go into kind of, where are we? And we put that in the context of the economic cycle, because we think that drives a lot of where, where stocks may wanna be. And so, yeah, you can and sign up for a newsletter. You can stay informed on when we do things that we think are exciting and we hope you do.

Kate Stalter
Host

27:21

Oh, that's great. Hey, thank you so, so much really enjoyed our conversation today. Yeah,

Axel Merk
Guest

27:25

My pleasure. Have a good one.

Kate Stalter
Host

27:27

Thanks for listening. If you enjoyed this episode and you'd like to help support the show, please share it with others. Post about it on social media or leave a rating and review on your favorite podcast app to catch all the latest from MarketBeat. Be sure to head over to marketbeat.com, where we provide a variety of free real time, financial calendars, market data reports, and much, much more.

Axel Merk

Axel Merk, Guest

Founder & CEO/CIO, Merk Investments

Kate Stalter

Kate Stalter, Host

MarketBeat Contributor, MarketBeat

Kate Stalter is a Series 65-licensed asset manager, with more than two decades of experience in various areas of financial services. As an investment advisor and financial planner, Kate personally manages client portfolios, with a focus on successful retirement, including asset allocation, income generation and tax strategies. Kate also serves as a capital-markets contributor at Forbes.com, and is an expert columnist for the investment advisory channel at U.S. News & World Report.

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