Amazon Has Erased Its Earnings Sell-Off, But Is the Biggest Opportunity Still Ahead?

Key Points

• Amazon shares rebounded sharply after the company's third-quarter earnings sell-off, recovering their losses within days.
• Amazon Web Services revenue grew 39% year over year, with management forecasting growth above 40% in 2027 and 2028.
• Analysts see additional upside potential, but Amazon's $220 billion capital spending plan and negative free cash flow remain concerns.

Amazon.com Inc. NASDAQ: AMZN hasn’t just recovered from its post-earnings sell-off; it traded above its pre-earnings level during the Nov. 4 session. The stock climbed to around $270, more than 17% above the low it struck after its Oct. 29 earnings report. It was a stunning turnaround in just a few trading sessions.

The quick bargain, in other words, didn't last long. Investors who pounced on the post-earnings dip saw substantial gains, and the chance to buy Amazon in the low $230s closed almost as fast as it opened.

However, completing a round-trip isn’t the same as crossing the finish line. With AWS’s growth continuing to accelerate, its backlog swelling and analyst targets still landing well above the current price, the bigger opportunity in Amazon may be the one that’s still ahead.

AWS Growth Accelerates as Backlog Tops $578 Billion

The snapback was no accident. In its third-quarter results, Amazon’s cloud arm grew nearly 40%, its fastest pace in almost five years and a sixth straight quarter of acceleration, all while margins widened year over year.

Behind that growth sits an AWS backlog of $578 billion, itself growing at a triple-digit rate year over year, which provides substantial visibility into future demand. In a market that has grown increasingly wary of AI spending bills with a long path to payback, a cloud arm that’s managing to grow faster and more profitably at once was exactly the reassurance buyers wanted.

In that context, it’s perhaps surprising that Amazon shares sold off at all, though they were likely weighed down by the market’s broader reaction to the latest earnings from the AI hyperscalers. Alphabet Inc.’s NASDAQ: GOOGL shares, for example, sank as much as 14% following its earnings release, which came the day before Amazon's.

Analysts See More Upside Even After Amazon's Rebound

For those worried that the rapid recovery might have closed the door on further gains, there’s actually reason to think this might be the start of a fresh rally.

Amazon has a Moderate Buy consensus rating among 61 analysts, with 58 bullish ratings and just three Holds. The average price target of approximately $321 suggests another 19% upside from the stock's Nov. 4 trading price near $270.

Phillip Securities added to that bullish sentiment, raising its price target to $330. That target implies more than 20% additional upside.

Phillip was clear about its reasoning, noting that Amazon is model-agnostic in AI and owns the full stack, from custom silicon to data centers, giving it a moat rivals will struggle to match.

Crucially, its growth runway stretches out for years, and management now expects AWS to grow more than 40% in both 2027 and 2028. That pace, if it holds, could make the current price look modest in hindsight.

In other words, for the bulls, the post-earnings dip was only the opening act: the real upside rests on the multi-year cloud and AI build-out that still has years to run, and the recent rebound may not mark the end of the move.

Amazon's $220 Billion Spending Plan Keeps Cash Flow Under Pressure

That said, none of this erases the worry that drove the sell-off in the first place: cash. Amazon’s free cash flow has swung deep into the red, the product of a heavy capital-spending plan running at roughly $220 billion this year, with more promised for 2027.

The question of when all that investment starts paying its way hasn’t gone away just because the share price is bouncing; if anything, a higher share price raises the bar for the returns Amazon eventually has to show.

It also leaves a different risk than at the post-earnings lows. The margin of safety that came with the beaten-down price is now largely gone, so anyone buying here is backing the growth story at something closer to a full price. That means a single soft quarter for AWS could bite harder now than it would have when shares were at $240.

After the Rebound, Is Amazon Stock Still a Buy?

So is the opportunity gone? It’s probably fair to say that the cheap and easy one is. The window to buy Amazon at a post-earnings discount lasted only days, and investors who bought the dip have already seen substantial gains. However, the larger prize was never about a short-term bounce, but the multi-year growth trajectory that the report confirmed Amazon is still on.

On that score, the case remains intact. AWS is accelerating, the company’s backlog keeps building, and the latest analyst price targets still sit well above the current price. The dip has been bought, but if Amazon keeps delivering like this, investors buying here may still feel like they got in early rather than late.