FACT FOCUS: Trump exaggerates revenue from tariffs

President Donald Trump makes no secret of his love of tariffs. He heralds them as a way of bringing in revenue, striking back at countries he sees as taking advantage of the U.S. in trade, and as a cudgel to push countries to do what he wants. Even Canada and Mexico have been handed heavy taxes.

On April 2, Trump announced far-reaching new tariffs on nearly all trading partners, only to roll most of them back on April 9 after the stock market tanked.

Still, he claims that tariffs, a tax on imported goods, are bringing in billions of dollars a day. On April 8, speaking at the National Republican Congressional Committee Dinner, he said, “We’re making a fortune with tariffs. $2 billion a day. Do you believe it? I was told $2 billion a day.”

Here's a look at the facts.

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CLAIM: The U.S. is earning $2 billion per day from tariffs.

THE FACTS: That's false. Trump began raising tariffs in February. That month, about $7.247 billion in customs duties were collected, or $258.82 million per day. In March, the most recent monthly figure available, a total of about $8.168 billion in customs duties was collected, or approximately $263.48 million per day. A customs duty is a type of tariff.

U.S. Customs and Border Protection said in an April 8 statement that as a result of 13 tariff-related presidential actions taken by Trump, it was collecting each day “over $200 million in additional associated revenue.” The agency is responsible for collecting tariffs.

Those numbers are in line with what the U.S. has taken in thus far during fiscal year 2025, which started Oct. 1 under the Biden administration. According to the latest Treasury Department numbers, $56.215 billion in customs duties and certain excise taxes have been collected, or $283.91 if broken out per day. An excise tax is also a type of tariff.

The U.S. has collected approximately $3.076 billion in customs and certain excise taxes so far this month, coming out to about $180.94 million per day, according to the Treasury Department’s data.

Economists suggest that Trump’s number is likely based on the value of imported goods from fiscal year 2024, disregarding the impact higher tariffs will have on supply and demand.

“It’s almost certainly the case we’re collecting less than that," said Robert Johnson, an associate professor of economics at the University of Notre Dame, of Trump's $2 billion per day figure.

The U.S. took in about $3.3 trillion worth of goods in fiscal year 2024, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Applying the average tariff rate Trump announced on April 2 — 20% — to that figure comes out to $660 trillion worth of goods. That's roughly $1.8 billion of revenue per day.

But, economists note, this calculation does not account for behavioral changes. For example, if tariffs increase and make a product less profitable, importers may cease importing it altogether. And if consumers face higher prices due to increased tariffs, they may choose not to buy certain items.

“That’s the most optimistic scenario, because that won’t happen,” said Felix Tintelnot, an associate professor of economics at Duke University, of Trump’s $2 billion figure. “You can’t do a calculation of expected tariff revenue off past trade flows and then multiply with it a currently applied tariff and expect that the past trade flow remains the same.”

Ryan Monarch, an assistant professor of economics at Syracuse University, agreed, noting, “it’s a very bad assumption to assume that purchases are just completely unchanged.”

Not to mention, it is U.S. importers — American companies — that pay tariffs, not foreign governments. That money goes to the U.S. Treasury and those companies, in turn, typically pass their higher costs on to their customers in the form of higher prices.

Still, tariffs can hurt foreign countries by making their products pricier and harder to sell abroad. Foreign companies might have to cut prices — and sacrifice profits — to offset the tariffs and try to maintain their market share in the U.S.

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Find AP Fact Checks here: https://apnews.com/APFactCheck.