Cigna Group Targets $45 EPS by 2030 as Specialty Growth Offsets Pharmacy Headwinds

Key Points

• Cigna targets at least $45 in EPS by 2030, with long-term growth of 10%–14%; the EPS goal assumes pharmacy benefit services produces no growth through 2030.
• Specialty is expected to grow 8%–12% and rise from about 37% to 40% of earnings by 2030, helping offset pharmacy headwinds. Cigna sees 2027 as a trough for pharmacy benefit services, citing reduced employer coverage of GLP-1 drugs and shrinking rebate pools.
• Cigna expects its Signature pharmacy model, rolling out in 2027 and 2028, to help pharmacy benefit services return to growth after 2027. The company also aims for $3 billion in gross annualized savings from its modernization program.

Cigna Group NYSE: CI expects its specialty business to account for a larger share of earnings by 2030, as the company pursues a long-term growth target and prepares for changes in its pharmacy benefit services business, Chief Financial Officer Ann Dennison said at a conference.

The specialty business currently represents about 37% of overall earnings and is expected to reach about 40% by 2030, Dennison said. She described it as the company’s fastest-growing business, with a growth range of 8% to 12%.

Cigna is targeting long-term growth of 10% to 14%, including 6% to 9% from earnings growth and 4% to 5% from capital deployment, Dennison said. The company expects earnings per share of at least $45 by 2030, an outcome she said assumes each business reaches the low end of its growth range.

“The low end is not our target,” Dennison said. She added that the $45 figure assumes no growth in pharmacy benefit services from now through 2030.

Pharmacy Headwinds and Signature Rollout

Dennison said Cigna expects 2027 to be the trough year for pharmacy benefit services. She pointed to two principal headwinds: a decline in employer coverage of GLP-1 drugs and a shrinking gross rebate pool. She identified the IRA as the biggest driver of lower prices and, consequently, smaller rebate pools.

While most rebates go to clients, Cigna earns a small portion and expects some pressure from the reduction, she said. The company also expects to continue earning revenue from GLP-1 coverage, even as fewer employers cover the drugs.

For Evernorth overall, Dennison reiterated expectations for low-single-digit growth in 2027, with specialty and care growth near the lower end of its 8% to 12% range. She said those expectations imply a decline in pharmacy benefit services.

Cigna expects its Signature pharmacy benefit model to help the business return to growth after 2027. The model will launch for Cigna Healthcare’s fully insured book on Jan. 1, 2027, followed by a broader launch on Jan. 1, 2028, Dennison said.

She described Signature as a transparent, fee-based model under which employers know what they will pay per member per month. Cigna does not expect the move to have a positive or negative financial effect on Cigna Healthcare, she said.

Productivity and Specialty Distribution

Cigna’s Accelerate to One modernization program has a $3 billion gross run-rate savings objective. Dennison said 70% to 80% of the savings are expected to come from automation, process re-engineering and talent effectiveness, with the remainder from optimizing vendor and supplier relationships.

Some savings will be reinvested in the business and some will flow to the bottom line, she said. The program is intended to support Cigna’s long-term growth goals.

Dennison also highlighted distribution opportunities around CuraScript, which she described as a $25 billion revenue business. Cigna expects to add at least $20 billion to that revenue amount by 2030, partly by expanding the relationship between CuraScript and specialty pharmacy business Accredo, she said.

Growth in specialty and care is expected to moderate in 2027 because upcoming drug launches are smaller in relative size than those in 2026, Dennison said. She cited Stelara, Humira and the specialty generic Revlimid as prior growth drivers.

Healthcare Costs and Capital Deployment

Cigna Healthcare’s medical cost ratio and cost trend are tracking in line with expectations, Dennison said. Pharmacy, specialty and behavioral care remain the largest trend drivers. She expects costs to remain elevated but broadly stable next year.

The independent dispute resolution process has added about 60 basis points of trend pressure this year, she said. Cigna expects a higher contribution next year and has planned and priced for it.

Dennison said the company remains on track to recover 75% of the stop-loss margin disruption experienced coming out of 2024 by the end of this year, with the remaining 25% expected in 2027.

Cigna also expects to reach a 40% debt-to-capital ratio by the end of 2026, giving it greater flexibility for capital deployment, including share repurchases, Dennison said. She expects 2027 capital deployment to look more like the company’s long-term guidance.

The company has projected $50 billion in cash flow from operations through 2030. Dennison said 20% to 25% could be invested organically, about 20% allocated to dividends and the remainder used for share repurchases, acquisitions and other opportunities.

About Cigna Group (NYSE:CI)

The Cigna Group is a global health services company that provides health insurance and related services through its Cigna Healthcare and Evernorth Health Services businesses. Cigna Healthcare offers medical, dental, behavioral health and other coverage and services to employers, individuals and government-program members. Evernorth provides pharmacy benefit management, specialty pharmacy, care delivery and other health services. Its offerings include prescription drug benefits and services for people with complex or chronic conditions.

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