Natera CFO Defends CEO Switch, Calls $6 Billion Revenue Target a “Way Station”

Key Points

• Natera CFO Mike Brophy said the company’s $6 billion 2029 revenue target is achievable and a “way station,” with revenue expected to exceed $3 billion in 2026. He defended the immediate CEO handoff to Solomon, citing his deep experience at Natera and the benefit of clear decision-making authority.
• Signatera is expected to generate more than $1 billion this year. The 2029 outlook assumes an average selling price of about $1,450, supported in part by broader coverage; Brophy estimated the test’s longer-term annual market opportunity at $20 billion to $40 billion.
• Natera has completed enrollment in its colorectal cancer screening study, with results expected next year. Brophy sees an opportunity among people who do not use colonoscopy or stool tests, and said early-detection tests could expand the number of patients served around 2030–31.

Natera NASDAQ: NTRA CFO Mike Brophy said the company’s newly announced $6 billion revenue target for 2029 is achievable with strong execution, as he outlined expectations for its Signatera cancer test and defended the immediate transition to a new CEO.

Speaking at a Wolfe Research event, Brophy said the target was intended in part to reassure investors following the leadership change and to give employees a shared goal. The company expects to generate more than $3 billion in revenue in 2026, he said.

The 2029 goal was roughly $1 billion above the Wall Street consensus at the time of its announcement, according to Wolfe Research’s Paige Chamberlain. Brophy described it as a “way station,” rather than an endpoint for the company.

CEO transition and continuity

Brophy said new CEO Solomon joined Natera in 2011 and has worked across multiple parts of the business, including women’s health, product development and oncology. He credited Solomon with helping develop the Prospera transplant test and serving as Signatera’s original general manager.

Some investors viewed the immediate CEO change as abrupt, Brophy acknowledged. But he said a lengthy transition was unnecessary because Solomon already knows the company and has been involved in major decisions, including financial guidance.

“It’s actually much, much more functional for us to make a clean change and have clear decision-making authority handed to Solomon right away,” Brophy said. He added that outgoing CEO Steve has a consulting agreement with the company and will remain available for advice.

Brophy said Natera’s commercial leadership and practices, including its approach to territory sizing and performance measurement, would remain in place.

Signatera pricing and market opportunity

Brophy presented a Signatera average selling price of $1,450 as one assumption consistent with the 2029 revenue target, compared with approximately $1,290 currently. He said additional Medicare coverage decisions could support that increase, alongside improvements in reimbursement from Medicare Advantage and commercial payers.

Natera recently received a coverage decision for liver cancer and has roughly 10 other submissions pending with the MolDx program, Brophy said. He cautioned that average selling prices and test volumes would not necessarily rise at a linear pace.

For the longer term, Brophy estimated a $20 billion to $40 billion annual market opportunity for Signatera. His calculation began with approximately 2 million annual U.S. cancer diagnoses and about 10 tests per patient over a roughly five-year period. He said his estimate conservatively excludes portions of the stage one and stage four patient populations.

Brophy also suggested a long-term average selling price of about $2,000, based on broader coverage and lower contracted rates than the current mid-$3,000 range. He said Signatera is expected to generate more than $1 billion in revenue this year.

On competition, Brophy said Natera would continue investing in clinical data and product improvements. He expects an ultra-sensitive version of Signatera eventually to supersede the exome-based version as the core offering, and said the company has also launched a tumor-naive minimal residual disease test for patients who may benefit from that approach.

Colorectal screening and early detection

Chamberlain said Natera had completed enrollment in its FIND-CRC colorectal cancer screening study and that data were expected next year. Asked about entering a market with other blood tests and established screening options, Brophy said the opportunity includes people unwilling or unable to undergo colonoscopy or stool testing.

Brophy estimated that roughly 40 million people in the United States fall into that group. Assuming a blood test is needed about once every three years, he estimated an opportunity to screen roughly 13 million people annually. He said Natera could capture a fair share of that market, while acknowledging that other companies would also compete.

Beyond colorectal screening, Brophy said early cancer detection tests for other at-risk populations could roughly double the number of patients Natera can serve annually around 2030 or 2031. He expects the colorectal opportunity to develop sooner.

About Natera (NASDAQ:NTRA)

Natera, Inc. is a diagnostics company that develops and provides genetic testing and molecular diagnostics for reproductive health, oncology and organ health. Its tests analyze cell-free DNA and other genetic material to support screening, diagnosis and disease monitoring. In reproductive health, Natera offers Panorama, a noninvasive prenatal screening test, and Horizon, a carrier screening test. Its oncology portfolio includes Signatera, a personalized circulating tumor DNA test used to monitor for molecular residual disease and assess cancer recurrence.

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