What CF Industries (CF) Said on Its Q3 Earnings Call

Key Points

• CF Industries reported $436 million in Q3 net earnings and $833 million in adjusted EBITDA, with ammonia capacity running at 97% utilization during the first nine months of 2026.
• Management expects nitrogen markets to remain constructive into 2027, citing roughly 9 million metric tons of lost global urea supply, curtailed European ammonia capacity, and stronger demand from buyers. Brazil is an exception, with credit constraints expected to reduce fertilizer demand.
• CF kept its 2026 capital spending outlook at about $1.3 billion and said new ammonia and carbon-capture projects could raise mid-cycle EBITDA to $3.3 billion by 2030. It returned $1.3 billion to shareholders over the past 12 months, including share repurchases.

CF Industries NYSE: CF reported $436 million in third-quarter net earnings and said it expects global nitrogen markets to remain constructive into 2027 as supply disruptions and low inventories support demand.

The fertilizer producer earned $2.87 per diluted share in the quarter. EBITDA was $822 million, while adjusted EBITDA was $833 million. For the first nine months of 2026, net earnings attributable to common stockholders were approximately $1.8 billion, or $11.60 per diluted share, and adjusted EBITDA was approximately $3 billion.

President and CEO Chris Bohn said the company operated its available ammonia capacity at 97% utilization during the first nine months. He attributed the results to operating performance and the advantages of its North American production network.

Nitrogen demand and supply outlook

Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer Bert Frost said nitrogen demand strengthened during the third quarter as buyers in North America, South America and Europe returned to the market. Nitrogen prices remained below their spring application peaks, he said.

CF shipped nearly 2 million tons of UAN, or urea ammonium nitrate, in the third quarter, its largest quarterly UAN volume this decade. Frost said participation in the company’s fall ammonia program has been strong and that volumes could be among its highest in 10 years, depending on weather.

Frost estimated that global markets have lost approximately 9 million metric tons of urea supply since hostilities began in the Middle East in late February. He also said shipping availability, freight costs and insurance costs remain constraints, while Black Sea disruptions have affected Russian trade routes.

In Europe, more than 35% of ammonia capacity is curtailed amid high natural gas costs, according to Frost. Bohn said some European shutdowns that CF had expected around 2030 could occur 12 to 18 months earlier because of energy-price volatility and the expense of maintaining idled equipment.

Frost said Chinese urea exports have filled part of the supply gap, particularly in India, but have not materially loosened the global nitrogen balance. He said export authorizations had reached almost 9 million tons, while declining to forecast next year’s level. Bohn cautioned that some authorized volumes could move into the next calendar year.

In Brazil, credit constraints have delayed purchases. Frost estimated the country’s urea demand would be down approximately 1 million tons from 2025 and overall fertilizer demand would fall by 7 million to 9 million tons.

Projects and capital spending

CF maintained its 2026 consolidated capital expenditure outlook at approximately $1.3 billion, with its share at about $950 million, Chief Financial Officer Andrew Scribner said.

Construction of the Blue Point One ammonia plant began in August. Scribner said the projected plant cost remains $3.7 billion, with production expected to begin in 2029. Common facilities are still estimated to cost $550 million. CF owns a 40% share of the project.

The company’s Donaldsonville carbon capture and storage project is operating, while its Yazoo City carbon capture project is progressing toward a 2028 startup, Bohn said. CF expects Blue Point One and the two carbon capture projects to add $400 million to its mid-cycle EBITDA estimate by 2030, increasing it to $3.3 billion.

Separately, Bohn said CF expects to begin ramping up the idled Yazoo City complex in the first half of 2027, with ammonium nitrate production planned for the second half. Scribner said the company expects insurance recoveries and rebuild spending to largely offset over the life of the project, though he did not provide quarterly payment guidance.

Cash flow and shareholder returns

For the trailing 12 months, CF generated approximately $3.1 billion in operating cash flow and $2 billion in free cash flow. Scribner said EBITDA-to-free-cash-flow conversion was slightly below its five-year average of approximately 60%, partly because of $306 million in deposits related to a historical U.S.-Canada transfer pricing matter.

The company repurchased 3 million shares for approximately $367 million during the third quarter. Bohn said CF returned $1.3 billion to shareholders through dividends and repurchases over the past 12 months, buying back approximately 6% of outstanding shares during that period.

Scribner said management believes the market attributes too much of the company’s earnings and cash flow performance to short-term geopolitical factors. He said confidence in CF’s mid-cycle earnings power supports continued opportunistic share repurchases.

About CF Industries (NYSE:CF)

CF Industries Holdings, Inc is a global manufacturer of hydrogen and nitrogen products. The company produces ammonia, granular urea, urea ammonium nitrate, ammonium nitrate and nitric acid, which are used primarily in agricultural fertilizers and a range of industrial applications. CF Industries also supplies products such as diesel exhaust fluid and other nitrogen-based solutions.

The company serves agricultural and industrial customers in North America and internationally. Its manufacturing and distribution operations include facilities in the United States, Canada and the United Kingdom, supported by an extensive logistics and distribution network.

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