AbbVie Stock Post Humira is Still an Attractive Stock to Hold

Key Points

• AbbVie is actively navigating the patent cliff of its top-selling drug, Humira, with a multi-pronged strategy.
• The company is seeing significant growth from its newer immunology drugs, Rinvoq and Skyrizi.
• Strong financial performance, including a solid dividend history and robust cash flow, make AbbVie attractive to investors.

AbbVie NYSE: ABBV is a global biopharmaceutical company long synonymous with its blockbuster drug, Humira. While the drug's success has propelled AbbVie to great heights, its recent patent expiration has greatly influenced the company's future.

While the "Humira cliff" is undeniably significant, a closer look reveals a company that has proactively prepared for this moment, building a diversified portfolio and strategic roadmap for continued growth. For the right investors, AbbVie presents a compelling case of a company in transition, not decline.

The Humira Conundrum

AbbVie's Humira, a blockbuster drug used to treat numerous autoimmune conditions, has been an exceptionally lucrative asset, generating over $20 billion at the height of its annual sales. However, this reliance on a single product has also made the company vulnerable. With the arrival of biosimilar competitors in the U.S. in 2023, Humira's dominance is waning.

In Q2 2024, Humira sales plummeted 29.8% year-over-year to $2.81 billion, a stark reminder of the patent cliff's impact. This decline has understandably fueled investor concerns about AbbVie's ability to maintain its revenue stream and, consequently, its attractive dividend payouts.

Ensuring Growth Beyond Humira

AbbVie, however, has not been caught off guard. The company has spent years meticulously constructing a strategy to mitigate the Humira decline, focusing on three key pillars:

• Developing and Expanding Blockbuster Successors: AbbVie recognized early on the need to develop its next-generation immunology drugs to succeed Humira. This led to significant investments in R&D, resulting in the successful launches of Rinvoq and Skyrizi.
• Strategically Acquiring Promising Pipelines: While internal development is crucial, AbbVie has strategically leveraged mergers and acquisitions (M&A) to accelerate its growth. Acquiring companies like ImmunoGen, Landos Biopharma, and Celsius Therapeutics has brought in promising late-stage assets and bolstered AbbVie's pipeline in key areas.
• Deepening the Existing Portfolio Across Diverse Therapeutic Areas: AbbVie has proactively expanded its presence beyond immunology. The company has built strong portfolios in oncology, neuroscience, and aesthetics, diversifying its revenue streams and reducing reliance on a single product or therapeutic area.

This multi-pronged approach demonstrates AbbVie's foresight and commitment to navigating the challenges of the pharmaceutical industry, where patent cliffs are an inevitable part of the business cycle. By focusing on innovation, strategic acquisitions, and portfolio diversification, AbbVie is positioning itself for long-term success beyond its reliance on Humira.

Crowning New Champions: The Rise of Rinvoq and Skyrizi

Central to AbbVie's strategy is the success of its next-generation immunology drugs, Rinvoq and Skyrizi. These drugs, with mechanisms of action different from Humira, already demonstrate their potential. In Q2 2024, their combined sales reached $4.16 billion, a significant increase year-over-year, driven by approvals for new indications, including inflammatory bowel diseases.

AbbVie projects peak combined sales for Rinvoq and Skyrizi to exceed $27 billion, directly addressing the revenue gap left by Humira. Based on expanding approvals, growing market share, and clinical data, this projection offers a glimpse into AbbVie's confidence in these drugs as cornerstones of its future.

Strategic Acquisitions: Investing in Innovation and Growth

AbbVie has strategically deployed capital to acquire companies with promising pipelines. In 2023, AbbVie acquired ImmunoGen, gaining access to Elahere, a novel antibody-drug conjugate for ovarian cancer. This $5.8 billion deal highlights the company's willingness to invest in late-stage assets with blockbuster potential. Further bolstering its immunology pipeline, AbbVie acquired Landos Biopharma, adding ABBV-113, a potential first-in-class treatment for inflammatory bowel diseases.

These acquisitions, along with the acquisition of Celsius Therapeutics and their novel drug CEL383 for IBD, signal AbbVie's commitment to maintaining its leadership in immunology while diversifying into new and lucrative therapeutic areas.

Deepening the Bench: A Diversified Portfolio for Long-Term Stability

While Rinvoq and Skyrizi are crucial, AbbVie's strategy extends beyond individual products. The company has built a strong presence in oncology, neuroscience, and aesthetics, contributing significantly to its overall revenue.

Venclexta and Imbruvica remain key drugs in oncology, driving a 10.5% revenue increase in Q2 2024. While Imbruvica faces increasing competition, the segment's overall growth demonstrates the strength of AbbVie's diversified oncology portfolio. The neuroscience segment, bolstered by Botox Therapeutic for migraines and Vraylar for bipolar disorder, saw a 14.7% revenue jump in Q2 2024.

The aesthetics portfolio, however, experienced a slowdown, with Q2 2024 growth at 0.5%, leading to lowered guidance for the year. While this raises valid concerns, it's crucial to note that aesthetics remains a profitable segment for AbbVie, potentially impacted by temporary market dynamics. The company's commitment to innovation in aesthetics, with new product launches and geographic expansions, signals its intent to revitalize growth in this area.

Beyond the Bottom Line: A Financially Sound Future

AbbVie's strategic maneuvering extends beyond its product portfolio. The company has consistently demonstrated strong financial management, which is evident in its recent performance and future outlook. Despite the Humira decline, AbbVie’s earnings report for the second quarter of 2024 surpassed Abbvie’s analyst community’s earnings estimates, reporting an adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $2.65. Even more appealing for income-oriented investors is AbbVie's dividend. With a current yield of 3.14% and a 52-year history of consistent dividend growth (if you include legacy payments from Abbott Labs), AbbVie remains a dividend powerhouse.

The company's strong cash flow generation further underpins its financial health. This cash flow allows AbbVie to continue investing heavily in R&D, pursue further acquisitions, and reward shareholders with dividends and share buybacks.

Reinforcing its positive outlook, AbbVie raised its full-year 2024 adjusted EPS guidance to $10.71-$10.91, demonstrating confidence in its ability to navigate the Humira patent cliff and deliver sustained growth.

A New Chapter for AbbVie

The Humira cliff is undoubtedly a significant challenge, but it does not define AbbVie's future. The company's proactive and multifaceted strategy is already bearing fruit. The success of Rinvoq and Skyrizi, coupled with its strong financial position and drug pipeline, positions AbbVie for a new era of growth.

Investors looking beyond the Humira-centric narrative will find a company embracing change and building a more diversified and resilient future. While some uncertainty remains, the current market valuation may present a compelling opportunity for long-term investors who believe in AbbVie's ability to execute its well-defined strategy.