After Massive Post Earnings Fall, Does Hope Remain for MongoDB?

Key Points

• MongoDB shares got crushed after earnings and have now lost nearly half their value in 52-weeks.
• The company's weak guidance and uninspiring AI commentary helped lead the fall.
• What is to make of MongoDB stock going forward?

MongoDB NASDAQ: MDB recently had a historically bad trading day after the database firm’s latest earnings on Mar. 5, shares traded down by nearly 27%. As of the March 20 close, the stock is down over 47% from where it started 52 weeks ago. Despite having a strong fiscal Q4 2025, the firm’s guidance for the next year was very disappointing. Wall Street analysts across the board slashed price targets, punctuating the market's displeasure.

MarketBeat tracked 15 analysts who updated their price target on Mar. 6 or later. On average, they lowered their target by 23%. This indicates that, in general, Wall Street doesn’t see the move in MongoDB stock as a drastic overreaction. However, the average updated price target of $294 still shows an implied upside north of 55% versus MongoDB’s Mar. 20 closing price. 

This begs the question: Is MongoDB a buy-the-dip opportunity, or is there too much moving against this stock? Additionally, do its long-term opportunities still remain?

Below are details of MongoDB’s latest earnings and a perspective on what the stock's future holds.

MongoDB: Earnings Beat, But Guidance Shows Significant Weakness

For the last quarter, MongoDB posted results that actually greatly exceeded analyst estimates. Its adjusted earnings per share of $1.28 were nearly double the $0.66 per share analysts anticipated. Additionally, the company grew revenue by 20% in the quarter, way above the nearly 14% projected.

The company pulled forward significant earnings and revenue in Q4, helping it achieve its big beats. The company noted that it had to recognize over $10 million more in revenue from its Enterprise Advanced product in the quarter than it expected. This was due to accounting rules for multi-year licenses.

This helped pull forward revenue and earnings, resulting in a big beat on both. Higher-than-expected consumption revenue from its Atlas segment also contributed to this.

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However, even after adjusting for this pull-forward, MongoDB still fell short of expectations on earnings growth. Wall Street expected $4.04 of adjusted EPS in total for fiscal Q4 2025 and fiscal 2026 combined. Based on MongoDB’s results and midpoint guidance, it only sees $3.81 of adjusted EPS over those five quarters. That is a miss of just under 6%.

Atlas is MongoDB’s product that it manages for customers on the cloud. Corporations manage Enterprise Advanced, also known as "Non-Atlas," on-premises. Enterprise Advanced offers customers greater control and customization because of this.

MDB: Potential of AI Uptick Is Muted in Fiscal 2026

Overall, markets have been hoping that further adoption of AI will reaccelerate the company’s annual revenue growth. This is because developers can use MongoDB’s database to build AI applications, a need that would drive demand. In fiscal 2024, revenue grew by 31%. In fiscal 2025, it grew by 19%. Now, MongoDB is forecasting growth of just 12% for fiscal 2026.

This big drop in growth has raised concerns. One factor causing this lower growth forecast is the fact that MongoDB signed many multi-year deals in fiscal 2024 and 2025. As a result, MongoDB has fewer customers with whom to renew deals in fiscal 2026.

This declining growth rate comes as MongoDB didn’t offer commentary suggesting that AI demand would have a big impact soon. The company mentioned that it expects AI-related progress to be gradual in fiscal 2026. This is because "most enterprise customers are still developing in-house skills to leverage AI effectively."

Management added that they “expect the benefits of AI to be only modestly incremental to revenue growth in fiscal 2026." Overall, the company sees fiscal 2026 as a “transition year” as it looks to prepare for its AI opportunity.

Long-term Opportunity Remains, But Near-Term Looks Dicey for MBD

At this point, MongoDB has a lot of negative sentiment around it. This is due to its weak guidance and management commentary that the AI opportunity may be farther away than some had hoped. Still, MongoDB remains bullish on AI, seeing it as a “once-in-a-generation” shift.

Yet, the firm did not explicitly reiterate its statement from Q3 that it believes it will capture its “fair share of successful AI applications" in the latest earnings call. Overall, MongoDB still has a solid chance to capitalize on this opportunity in the long term. However, with the negative sentiment for this stock and the general tech sector, it may be best to wait on the sidelines until more positive news regarding AI adoption arises.