Amprius Market Gets Amped Up on Growth Outlook

Key Points

• Amprius Technologies' stock price action shows increasingly strong support and potential to surge in Q2.
• The analysts see this stock rising at least 100% at the low end of their range and over 250% at the consensus. 
• Ramping production and an increasing order count point to strong growth this year. 

Amprius Technologies' NYSE: AMPX stock price is not immune to the volatility plaguing the broader market.  However, the trend in price action reveals a market that is getting amped up on an increasingly positive news cycle and is ready to shoot higher. Critical takeaways are that demand for this company’s next-gen silicon anode lithium-ion batteries is increasing simultaneously with manufacturing capacity, setting it up for sustained growth and eventual profitability.

The advantages are increased energy density, discharge, and charging speeds that make Amprius Technologies' batteries suitable for numerous applications, including the aerospace industry. 

Amprius analysts forecast profitability by 2028, and the market is not pricing it in. The stock trades at only 30X its forward 2028 EPS outlook, with hypergrowth expected in the years following. The market for AMPX assumes a 10x P/E multiple in 2029 that dwindles into the low single digits in early 2033, setting the market up for a significant upward movement that could quickly run into the high triple-digit percentages.  

Analyst and Institutional Support Increases for AMPX

The analysts' trend since Q4 2024 is very bullish and forecasts a solid 255% upside in early April. The trends include firming sentiment with all eight of the analysts tracked by MarketBeat rating at Buy and a rising price target. The consensus implies 255% upside, but even the low price target of $6 suggests a deeply undervalued stock, and institutional activity is also robust. 

Institutional buying has been light since the IPO but began ramping higher in Q3 2024, extending the trend into Q1 2025. The Q1 2025 activity is noteworthy because it is a record, netting $14.5 million in shares or about 4.4% of the market cap, with the stock trading near $2.65.

The caveat is that institutions own a small 5% of the business; however, their ownership is expected to continue increasing this year. 

Amprius Enters Hyper-Growth Phase

Amprius spent the last year establishing its manufacturing capacity and bringing the first products to market. The net result is a 167% annual increase in revenue to $24 million, with increased visibility into the coming year. Not only has the client base expanded by more than 100%, which includes advanced defense contractors like AeroVironment NASDAQ: AVAV and BAE Systems OTCMKTS: BAESY, but the company also reported $15 million in new contracts.

The $15 million is due primarily to a single, unnamed unmanned aircraft manufacturer that will likely lead to follow-on business. According to Amprius CEO Kang Sun, the global drone market is expected to grow nearly 1200% in the next decade. 

New product launches and segment gains will catalyze Amprius's growth in 2025. The company is working to package its technology for new verticals, including light EVs and emerging markets, providing a dual lever for its growth. The light EV market encompasses all electrified, short-distance travel forms, including minibikes, scooters, and micro-sized automobiles. 

The Risk With Amprius: Cash Flow and Dilution

While Amprius is tracking for profitability, there is some concern about cash and its ability to sustain operations long enough to reach it. The cash burn in 2024 was steady sequentially, topping $44.5 million at year’s end, which doesn’t compare well to the $55 million in cash on hand.

Assuming the cash burn rate remains the same, Amprius could run out in mid-2026, more than a year ahead of its expected profits. The company has already used share sales to shore up the balance sheet, increasing the count by more than 18%, and it may do so again. 

Amprius stock price action shows increasingly strong support, with volume rising along with the price and price action bouncing from a cluster of rising moving averages. Some resistance at what would be a one-year high is hampering the action, but it may not last long.

A move above the critical resistance, which is near $4.45, would be a bullish sign and a potential trigger for the larger movement.