Arm Holdings: Buy the Dip or Wait for a Better Price?

Key Points

• Arm's licensing model and market leadership in mobile and AI are potential long-term drivers of value.
• Recent earnings show robust royalty revenue but softer licensing revenue, a noteworthy factor for investors.
• The stock's elevated valuation, coupled with market volatility and industry headwinds, warrants careful consideration before making a buy decision.

The technology sector has recently experienced heightened volatility, and Arm Holdings NASDAQ: ARM has not been immune to the market's turbulence.

After a remarkable 134% surge in its stock price year-to-date, ARM has witnessed a decline of roughly 16% within a single month.

Does this downturn present a strategic buying opportunity, or is it a warning sign of more substantial difficulties? 

Understanding Arm's Unique Position

Arm Holdings operates under a distinctive licensing model, licensing its CPU architectures rather than manufacturing chips. This strategy delivers several key advantages: it provides a more predictable revenue stream based on royalties, it reduces capital expenditure, and it enables the company to concentrate on continuous innovation. The license model has propelled Arm to a dominant position in the mobile market and enabled strong inroads in other high-growth sectors, including artificial intelligence (AI), the Internet of Things (IoT), and the automotive industry. 

The AI Boom and the Semiconductor Supply Chain

The semiconductor industry is experiencing significant changes in strategy and direction. Demand for AI processing power is surging, driving growth in multiple segments, but persistent supply chain constraints temper this upswing. The global economic slowdown is also impacting consumer spending, which could affect demand for electronic devices incorporating Arm’s technology. Geopolitical factors add another layer of complexity, with ongoing trade tensions and export controls introducing uncertainty for global companies like Arm. While these factors pose challenges for the industry, they do not cancel out the fundamental drivers of Arm's underlying strength.

Arm is a low-power architecture chipset that is uniquely positioned to benefit from the long-term growth trends in the market despite the ongoing macroeconomic challenges and geopolitical headwinds. The company's established partnerships and substantial cash reserves provide it with a buffer against potential market corrections and enable continued investment in research and development. However, the persisting supply chain issues and the potential for a significant consumer slowdown need to be constantly monitored.

Arm Beats EPS Estimates, But Licensing Revenue Softens

Arm's earnings report for the second quarter of fiscal year 2025 (Q2 FY2025) provided investors with a mixed picture of the company, showcasing robust royalty revenue growth alongside a decline in licensing revenue. Total revenue rose 4.7% year-over-year to $844 million, surpassing Arm’s analyst community’s expectations of $810.03 million. This growth was driven primarily by a 23% surge in royalty revenue, reaching $514 million. Royalties are a crucial component of Arm's licensing-based business model. They have benefited from increasing adoption of the Armv9 architecture in smartphones and an overall rebound in the smartphone market. 

Conversely, license and other revenue dipped by 15% to $330 million, reflecting the timing of large licensing deals and contributions from the backlog of previously signed agreements. These backlog contributions represent revenue from licensing agreements signed in previous periods. Non-GAAP diluted earnings per share (EPS) reached $0.30, exceeding analyst forecasts of $0.26. Non-GAAP is a common profitability metric used by tech companies that excludes non-recurring expenses to provide a more consistent view of operational performance. Non-GAAP operating income came in at $326 million, though the operating margin contracted to 38.6% compared to the prior year's Q2 margin of 47.6%. This contraction was primarily attributed to a 25% year-over-year rise in non-GAAP operating expenses, driven by a 21% expansion of the company’s engineering team and strategic investments in research and development, particularly in areas like AI and the development of new chip architectures.

Analyst Optimism Meets Lofty Valuation

Analyst sentiment toward Arm Holdings provides a view of cautious optimism tempered by a rich valuation. The consensus rating remains a Moderate Buy, based on 26 Wall Street analysts surveyed. However, this rating masks a range of opinions, with price targets spanning from a low of $100 to a high of $190, reflecting varying views on Arm's growth trajectory. The average price target currently stands at $147.95, presenting an upside potential of approximately 16% from the current price of $127.60. This suggests that while analysts are generally optimistic, they don’t anticipate dramatic near-term price appreciation. 

The issue is that Arm appears expensive relative to historical earnings and industry benchmarks. The stock currently trades at a trailing twelve-month price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 213.40, significantly above the market average, reflecting high investor expectations for future growth. This elevated P/E ratio suggests that the market is pricing in substantial earnings increases, which means Arm will face pressure to deliver exceptional results. The Price-to-Sales (P/S) ratio is 41.67, and the Price-to-Cash Flow (P/CF) is an extremely high 245.84. These metrics further underscore the premium valuation placed on Arm. Historically, high valuation multiples like these have created significant downside risks. If Arm's earnings growth disappoints, even slightly, the stock price could experience a sharp correction. Intermediate investors may interpret the high valuation as a sign that much of the anticipated growth is already priced into the stock, leaving less room for significant gains.

Is the Dip a Bargain or a Pitfall?

The recent price correction in Arm Holding’s stock presents a complex investment situation for investors. While the company's strong fundamentals suggest long-term potential, the current valuation and recent price volatility necessitate careful consideration.

If you are an investor with a long-term investment horizon and a high risk tolerance, the dip might present a compelling opportunity. The stock's substantial year-to-date gains and strong fundamentals, combined with a substantial cash reserve, indicate resilience. If your investment strategy focuses on holding for extended periods, seeking out growth in a sector with potentially high returns, the company's strong historical performance and potential for further market share gains could warrant a position at this price point. 

If you have a lower risk tolerance or are looking for immediate gains, it may be better to wait and see how the situation develops. The current high valuation multiples suggest that much of the expected future growth is already factored into the stock price. Additionally, the recent price volatility, significant premium valuation, and ongoing uncertainties in the semiconductor market (such as supply chain disruptions and geopolitical tensions) could lead to a more significant price correction. Therefore, it might be wise to wait for a better entry point.